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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: ""Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.""Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.5%"",""probability"":0.0507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%"",""probability"":0.1164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2914,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 12%"",""probability"":0.3207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","14","14",2
"Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
"Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
"Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1193,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.2514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.3093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","22","20",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.1563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.15439999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","23","23",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0327,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.114,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.3093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24","21",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.15789999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3221,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.2916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.08789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","27","27",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14400000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.239,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.013000000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","16","14",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.1533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.4592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.2158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","19","17",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32299999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.32899999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.036000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","11","10",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32299999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","13","12",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.050499999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10949999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","61","58",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","105","92",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","93",3
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","158","127",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","160","129",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.40869999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","43",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.42369999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32439999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","43","39",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1317,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.42590000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32549999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","41",2
"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.29969999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.0443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","108",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98","86",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.0533,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19899999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.35369999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.24230000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","99","87",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3012,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.33149999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.19510000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.12359999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","113",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
@ -36,17 +38,17 @@
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.29460000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.21969999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.2503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","50",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","82",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","124","83",3
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.3738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.3555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.2707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98","84",2
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.3785,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.3503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.2712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","99","85",2
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.11699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63","58",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0959,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.361,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.24760000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.11900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64","59",2
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283","182",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","183",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.037200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.23800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","128",3
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.036699999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1043,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2349,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","129",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.13949999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","197","160",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.12990000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18719999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2601,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","198","161",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18100000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2807,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","103",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
@ -54,4 +56,4 @@
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0658,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","194","138",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.5096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1329,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","75",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.5332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23620000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","129","77",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: "Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way."Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 5.5%","probability":0.0507,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%","probability":0.1164,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive","probability":0.2914,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive","probability":0.2207,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 12%","probability":0.3207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 2
3 Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 2
4 Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Hu Chunhua has been seen for many years as a rising star in Chinese politics. He serves on the Politburo as one of four Vice Premiers of the State Council, the administrative leadership group of the Chinese central government. He is the youngest Politburo member (he will turn 59 in 2022) and is the only Vice Premier not due to retire in 2022. The current Premier (and number-two ranked PBSC member), Li Keqiang, is constitutionally barred from serving another term, and, since the late 1980s, a new Premier has always been selected from among the serving Vice Premiers. Hu could secure a place on the next PBSC as the next Premier. But Xi’s personalized power and preference for elevating political allies has cast doubt on the persistence of previous norms. Hu is not seen as close to Xi, and his political rise is linked to the once-powerful but now-weakened Communist Youth League faction. Xi may want to block Hu’s ascension to the PBSC or be accepting of Hu taking a PBSC position below that of Premier. If Hu became Premier, it could be a signal that Xi faces intra-Party checks on his power.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 11 9 10 2
5 Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Li Keqiang has been the second-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and has served as Premier of the State Council since March 2013. He is ranked behind paramount leader Xi Jinping, who serves as the Party’s General Secretary and is President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission.During the 1990s and 2000s, Li and Xi were both rising stars. Xi was from an elite political family and gained the favor of former leader Jiang Zemin, while Li’s base was the now-weakened Communist Youth League that nurtured Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao. Xi proved more popular with Party elites but factional balancing within the Party saw Li win the number-two position.  Li is constitutionally barred from serving another five-year term as Premier. But he will only be 67 years old in 2022, and so will fall within the customary upper age bound of 67 for appointment to a new PBSC term. Given that it’s uncommon for such a senior leader to retire early, it's possible that Li will remain on the PBSC but take a different role.Xi is expected to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. If Li retires, it will be another sign of Xi’s consolidation of personalized political power, which has come at the expense of other factional networks within the Party. If Li remains on the PBSC, it could be a sign that other power groupings exist that are influential enough to at least require some degree of placation by Xi, or that Xi still feels at least partially constrained by factional norms.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 11 9 10 2
6 Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party is set to select a new Standing Committee of the 25-member Politburo of its ~370-member Central Committee at a meeting that will be held right after the 20th Party Congress, likely in October or November 2022. This Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) is the country’s top leadership group. It usually has seven members, although its membership has varied from five to nine in the post-Mao era. Xi Jinping, who has been the Party’s paramount leader and top-ranked PBSC member since the 18th Party Congress in November 2012, has centralized power to an extent unseen since perhaps Mao Zedong, and is likely to secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary in 2022. But given the opaque nature of intra-Party negotiations on leadership appointments, questions remain as to the full extent of his authority. Whether Xi can install more of his political allies onto the next PBSC will be a key indicator of his political power.While Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would have to exempt himself from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term, such exemptions were not forthcoming for close Xi allies at the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Therefore, if only Xi gets an age exemption, then two PBSC members will retire in 2022 (although it’s also possible that some younger members will fail to win reselection). Past practice indicates that new members on the next PBSC will almost certainly be selected from the current Politburo.Chen Min’er is tipped by some analysts as a major figure in the next generation of Chinese political leaders. He turns 62 in 2022 and so will be young enough to serve two PBSC terms under prevailing norms. He sits on the Politburo as Party Secretary of Chongqing, a position that was a launching pad for many former PBSC leaders. And he is seen as a protégé of Xi (who often promotes people he knows personally), having worked as director of the provincial propaganda department when Xi was Zhejiang Party Secretary from 2002-2007. But Chen will have to compete with other hopefuls and avoid any impression that he poses a threat to Xi’s authority.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. ***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.0327,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.114,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.3093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 24 9 21 2
7 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.1193,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.2514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.3093,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.15789999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.3221,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.2916,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.1405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.08789999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 27 20 27 2
8 How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.1563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.3044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.15439999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.1533,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1592,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.4592,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.2158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.0125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 19 23 17 2
9 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14400000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.239,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.013000000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.32299999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.096,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 14 12 2
10 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.32299999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.32899999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.036000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.050499999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.10949999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.2323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 61 10 58 2
11 What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.050499999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.10949999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.2323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 61 106 58 93 2 3
12 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 105 160 92 129 3
13 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2577,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.40869999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.073,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 46 127 43 3 2
14 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2577,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.40869999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.073,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1317,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.42590000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.32549999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0824,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 46 45 43 41 2
15 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.42369999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.32439999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.083,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1808,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.29969999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0443,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 43 125 39 108 2 3
16 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1808,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.3188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.29969999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.0443,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.0533,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.19899999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.35369999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.24230000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1517,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 125 99 108 87 3 2
17 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.053200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.1973,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.3546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1522,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.048600000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3012,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.33149999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.19510000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.12359999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 98 123 86 113 2 3
18 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.048600000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.3012,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.33149999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.19510000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.12359999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.037200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.1928,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.3579,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.3393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 123 52 113 41 3 2
19 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.037200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.1928,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.3579,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.3393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1291,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.2984,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.10529999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 52 128 41 99 2 3
20 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1291,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.2984,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.10529999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0489,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1866,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.29460000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.21969999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.2503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 128 54 99 50 3 2
21 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0489,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1866,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.29460000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.21969999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.2503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 54 124 50 83 2 3
22 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.3785,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.3503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.2712,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 123 99 82 85 3 2
23 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.3738,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.3555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.2707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.0959,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.1766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.361,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.24760000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.11900000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 98 64 84 59 2
24 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.0965,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.17800000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.36229999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.2463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.11699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 63 284 58 183 2 3
25 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.036699999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.1043,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2349,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6241,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 283 210 182 129 3
26 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.037200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.105,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.23800000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6198,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.12990000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.18719999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2601,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.1387,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 207 198 128 161 3
27 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.13949999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.18100000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.2807,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.151,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 197 130 160 103 3
28 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.18100000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.2807,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.151,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 164 103 126 3
29 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0658,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2824,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 164 194 126 138 3
30 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0658,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2824,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.5332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.23620000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.1277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.0674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.0355,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 194 129 138 77 3
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data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -1,4 +1,40 @@
[
{
"title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/123-what-percentage-of-software-engineer-job-postings-between-july-1-and-september-30-2021-inclusive-will-allow-for-remote-work",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3. You can view those forecasts here. A version of the question issued for 2021 Q1 was voided due to an error in the reported historical data. You can view the voided question here.Context. COVID-19 is reshaping the global economy by leading to an increase in jobs that can be performed remotely. A remote tech industry would have different properties than a non-remote tech industry. Most significantly, location would be a less of a constraint on where people work and who companies hire. For more on this metric, see the related metric analysis: \"Tech Jobs Are Going Remote; UK Leads the Way.\"Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Burning Glass data available as of October 1, 2021. It includes all countries for which Burning Glass has data: the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.The data for 2021 Q1 includes data only through March 9. We will update the graph to reflect the final three weeks of 2021 Q1 in early April. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.0507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
"probability": 0.1164,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2914,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2207,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
"probability": 0.3207,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "14",
"numforecasters": "14",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022",
@ -7,17 +43,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.68,
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.32,
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "10",
"numforecasters": "9",
"numforecasts": "11",
"numforecasters": "10",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -28,17 +64,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
"probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.42,
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "10",
"numforecasters": "9",
"numforecasts": "11",
"numforecasters": "10",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -49,17 +85,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.88,
"probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.12,
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "10",
"numforecasters": "9",
"numforecasts": "11",
"numforecasters": "10",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -70,68 +106,68 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.035,
"probability": 0.0327,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1193,
"probability": 0.114,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.2514,
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.285,
"probability": 0.3093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.3093,
"probability": 0.294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "22",
"numforecasters": "20",
"numforecasts": "24",
"numforecasters": "21",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. Through February 2021, 34,663 U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills were posted, which puts the first half of 2021 on pace for 106,328 job postings. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
"probability": 0.1563,
"probability": 0.15789999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3044,
"probability": 0.3221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
"probability": 0.29,
"probability": 0.2916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
"probability": 0.15439999999999998,
"probability": 0.1405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
"probability": 0.095,
"probability": 0.08789999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "23",
"numforecasters": "23",
"numforecasts": "27",
"numforecasters": "27",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -142,32 +178,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.1,
"probability": 0.1533,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.14400000000000002,
"probability": 0.1592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.504,
"probability": 0.4592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.239,
"probability": 0.2158,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.013000000000000001,
"probability": 0.0125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "16",
"numforecasters": "14",
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "17",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -178,7 +214,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
"probability": 0.242,
"probability": 0.228,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -188,22 +224,22 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.32899999999999996,
"probability": 0.307,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.096,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
"probability": 0.036000000000000004,
"probability": 0.046,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "11",
"numforecasters": "10",
"numforecasts": "13",
"numforecasters": "12",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -259,8 +295,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "105",
"numforecasters": "92",
"numforecasts": "106",
"numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -280,8 +316,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "158",
"numforecasters": "127",
"numforecasts": "160",
"numforecasters": "129",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -328,32 +364,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0341,
"probability": 0.0345,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1348,
"probability": 0.1317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.42369999999999997,
"probability": 0.42590000000000006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.32439999999999997,
"probability": 0.32549999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.083,
"probability": 0.0824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "43",
"numforecasters": "39",
"numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -400,32 +436,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.053200000000000004,
"probability": 0.0533,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1973,
"probability": 0.19899999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.3546,
"probability": 0.35369999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
"probability": 0.2427,
"probability": 0.24230000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.1522,
"probability": 0.1517,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "98",
"numforecasters": "86",
"numforecasts": "99",
"numforecasters": "87",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -580,17 +616,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45,
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.55,
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "82",
"numforecasts": "124",
"numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -601,22 +637,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.3738,
"probability": 0.3785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
"probability": 0.3555,
"probability": 0.3503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two or more",
"probability": 0.2707,
"probability": 0.2712,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "98",
"numforecasters": "84",
"numforecasts": "99",
"numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -627,32 +663,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.0965,
"probability": 0.0959,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.17800000000000002,
"probability": 0.1766,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.36229999999999996,
"probability": 0.361,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.2463,
"probability": 0.24760000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.11699999999999999,
"probability": 0.11900000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "58",
"numforecasts": "64",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -672,8 +708,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "283",
"numforecasters": "182",
"numforecasts": "284",
"numforecasters": "183",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -684,27 +720,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.037200000000000004,
"probability": 0.036699999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.105,
"probability": 0.1043,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.23800000000000002,
"probability": 0.2349,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6198,
"probability": 0.6241,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "207",
"numforecasters": "128",
"numforecasts": "210",
"numforecasters": "129",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -715,32 +751,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.131,
"probability": 0.12990000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.188,
"probability": 0.18719999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.2586,
"probability": 0.2601,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.2828,
"probability": 0.2841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.13949999999999999,
"probability": 0.1387,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "197",
"numforecasters": "160",
"numforecasts": "198",
"numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -844,32 +880,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.5096,
"probability": 0.5332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2525,
"probability": 0.23620000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.1329,
"probability": 0.1277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.0692,
"probability": 0.0674,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.0358,
"probability": 0.0355,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasters": "75",
"numforecasts": "129",
"numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
}
]

12
data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href=""https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href=""http://www.ev-volumes.com"" target=""_blank"">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2020 was <a href=""http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/"" target=""_blank"">4.2%</a>.","[{""name"":""Less than 4.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles"" target=""_blank"">OPEC</a> <a href=""https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/"" target=""_blank"">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm"" target=""_blank"">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf"" target=""_blank"">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","[{""name"":""Less than 21 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles"" target=""_blank"">OPEC</a> <a href=""https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/"" target=""_blank"">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm"" target=""_blank"">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf"" target=""_blank"">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","[{""name"":""Less than 21 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30 million barrels per day"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory ""carbon pricing mechanism"" become law before 1 January 2023?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href=""https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/"" target=""_blank"">policy</a> <a href=""https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool"" target=""_blank"">options</a> to impose <a href=""https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf"" target=""_blank"">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a ""carbon <a href=""https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing"" target=""_blank"">pricing</a> mechanism"" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href=""https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en"" target=""_blank"">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href=""https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program"" target=""_blank"">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href=""https://www.rggi.org"" target=""_blank"">Initiative</a>.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""<a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70"" target=""_blank"">next waves</a>"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href=""https://covid19.who.int/"" target=""_blank"">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href=""https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/"" target=""_blank"">here</a> each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The <a href=""https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020"" target=""_blank"">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=""https://tokyo2020.org/en/"" target=""_blank"">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=""https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again"" target=""_blank"">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=""https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html"" target=""_blank"">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4

1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment Environmental and sustainability concerns continue to drive a greater <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/global-sales-of-electric-cars-accelerate-fast-in-2020-despite-covid-pandemic" target="_blank">focus</a> on electric vehicles. The outcome will be determined using data for 2021 from <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com" target="_blank">EV-volumes.com</a> whenever it is first released in early 2022. The first-reported global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2020 was <a href="http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/" target="_blank">4.2%</a>. [{"name":"Less than 4.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.0%","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
3 What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles" target="_blank">OPEC</a> <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/" target="_blank">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm" target="_blank">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href="https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf" target="_blank">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021. [{"name":"Less than 21 million barrels per day","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30 million barrels per day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 21 million barrels per day","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30 million barrels per day","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
4 Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory "carbon pricing mechanism" become law before 1 January 2023?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href="https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/" target="_blank">policy</a> <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool" target="_blank">options</a> to impose <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf" target="_blank">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a "carbon <a href="https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing" target="_blank">pricing</a> mechanism" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en" target="_blank">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program" target="_blank">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href="https://www.rggi.org" target="_blank">Initiative</a>. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
5 When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows" target="_blank">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the "TABLE" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for "World," and see the relevant number in the column titled "End." The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
6 How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083" target="_blank">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438. [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
7 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
8 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
9 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
10 As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as "<a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70" target="_blank">next waves</a>" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/" target="_blank">here</a> each day. [{"name":"Less than 275,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 300,000 but less than 350,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
11 When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
12 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
13 What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
14 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
15 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
16 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021. [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
17 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4

26
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
View File

@ -51,7 +51,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.47,
"probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -61,7 +61,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 30 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -94,12 +94,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.83,
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.16,
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -133,7 +133,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -143,7 +143,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.75,
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -191,7 +191,7 @@
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "This question was commissioned by <a href=\"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">companies</a> are trying to <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19\" target=\"_blank\">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">Compassionate use</a>\" and \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">emergency use</a>\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",
"description": "This question was commissioned by <a href=\"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">companies</a> are trying to <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19\" target=\"_blank\">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">Compassionate use</a>\" and \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">emergency use</a>\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 February 2021",
@ -200,12 +200,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.71,
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.29,
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -302,12 +302,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -383,12 +383,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.29,
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.69,
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{

221
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,228 +1,231 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election","Good Judgment Open","Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","62","40",3
","[{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","77","52",3
"What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $100 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""$180 billion or more"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","15","14",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $100 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""$180 billion or more"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","20","17",3
"At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","42","39",3
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47","44",3
"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 100.0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110.0 but less than 120.0"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130.0"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","36","25",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 100.0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110.0 but less than 120.0"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130.0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","40","28",3
"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for ""All items"" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","80","59",3
","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","88","61",3
"Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year","Good Judgment Open","The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","61","45",3
","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","65","46",3
"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","44","31",3
","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","31",3
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98","67",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","99","67",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","153","104",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170","108",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78","65",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","68",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","91","68",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","69",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","61","40",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","62","40",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","91",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","56","37",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","58","37",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","163","61",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","61",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","42",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","138","44",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","376","96",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","410","99",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. 
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","520","144",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","553","148",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","349","91",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","380","93",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","137","80",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","138","80",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","41",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","489","365",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","501","367",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","377","260",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","387","262",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","397","331",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","403","335",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","226","186",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","229","188",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","279","192",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","289","195",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","74","25",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","75","25",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","171","91",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","92",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148","52",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","53",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","133","57",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","136","57",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","517","342",3
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","525","343",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78","48",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79","48",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","181","80",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","183","80",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","74",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","74",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","53",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","53",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","117",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","252","117",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","184","138",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","139",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","179","122",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","182","123",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","87",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","163","87",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","145","53",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","152","86",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","155","86",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","75",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","75",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","109",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","110",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","142",3
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","252","142",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","75",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","154","75",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","99","57",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","64",3
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","64",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","219","86",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","220","86",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","155","96",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","263","148",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","267","151",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#accfc0cddec5cac5cfcdd8c5c3c2dfeccbc3c3c8c6d9c8cbc1c9c2d882cfc3c193dfd9cec6c9cfd891fdd9c9dfd8c5c3c2899e9cefc0cddec5cac5cfcdd8c5c3c2). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","403","197",3
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6e0d020f1c0708070d0f1a0701001d2e0901010a041b0a09030b001a400d0103511d1b0c040b0d1a533f1b0b1d1a0701004b5c5e2d020f1c0708070d0f1a070100). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","404","197",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","398","72",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","406","72",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","533","112",3
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","567","114",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","117",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","164","117",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","145",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","286","146",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","87","50",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","88","50",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","177","90",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","181","91",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78","36",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","211","82",3
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","212","82",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","108","44",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109","44",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","242","68",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","68",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","65",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","65",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","121","68",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","122","68",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","276","138",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","277","139",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","92",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","259","92",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109","37",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","110","37",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","190","67",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","193","68",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","209","107",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283","74",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","74",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","223","86",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","224","86",3
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","361","144",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","368","145",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","111","76",3
@ -231,69 +234,69 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","171","81",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","208","63",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","217","64",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","482","197",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","485","197",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","447","215",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","449","216",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","281","147",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","372","228",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","374","228",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","103",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","297","103",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","342","104",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","346","104",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","252","126",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","271","99",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","272","99",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","44",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","410","207",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","412","209",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","114","61",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","61",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","89","32",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","272","43",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","274","43",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","30",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","455","205",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","462","207",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","82",3
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","218","82",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","597","201",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","601","201",3
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","561","252",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","564","252",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1790","599",3
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1806","600",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","517","216",3
@ -303,20 +306,20 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","559","248",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","562","251",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","126",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","235","126",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","331","185",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","335","187",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","326","167",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","327","167",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","310","88",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","312","88",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","240","60",3
@ -328,7 +331,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","272","107",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1466","208",3
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1470","208",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","300","64",3
@ -344,46 +347,46 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","134","54",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","564","154",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","571","157",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","764","156",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","767","156",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","503","224",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","513","227",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","502","93",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","508","94",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","482","74",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","484","75",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","215","65",3
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","421","160",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","422","161",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","385","115",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","702","203",3
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","706","204",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1174","455",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1179","455",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","390","161",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","341","154",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","342","154",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","741","167",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","871","167",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","875","167",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","79",3
@ -392,7 +395,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","328","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","654","186",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","655","186",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
@ -400,10 +403,10 @@ NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020),
","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","475","96",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","318","67",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","322","70",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","375","121",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","376","121",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","311","109",3
@ -414,13 +417,13 @@ NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","80",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","884","306",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","889","307",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","297","138",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","665","143",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","667","143",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
@ -429,23 +432,23 @@ NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal cha
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","262","57",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","263","57",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","238","46",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","240","46",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1201","185",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1203","186",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2171","876",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2190","880",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","245","110",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1091","467",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1101","469",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298","82",3
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
@ -460,12 +463,12 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","287","97",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","438","149",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","439","149",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","97",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","268","98",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","305","134",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","306","135",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1967-who-will-win-the-democratic-party-primary-for-the-new-york-city-mayoral-election Good Judgment Open Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City ([NBC New York](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crowded-democratic-primary-field-vies-for-nyc-mayors-job/2895362/), [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Mayoral_election_in_New_York,_New_York_(2021))). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-citys-mayoral-primaries-set-for-june-11607951847), [FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-were-watching-in-the-new-york-city-mayoral-race/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 62 77 40 52 3
3 What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021 Good Judgment Open SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/22303457/spacs-explained-stock-market-ipo-draftkings), [Benzinga](https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/03/20158072/spacs-attack-weekly-recap-looking-back-on-5-deals-rumors-and-headline-news)). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 ([SPACInsider](https://spacinsider.com/stats/)). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $100 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"$180 billion or more","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $100 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"$180 billion or more","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 20 14 17 3
4 At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 47 39 44 3
5 What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1372486/icode/), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/global-food-prices-coronavirus-protests-9d81f4c6-7665-4aa5-9250-a5b670efdb30.html), [Slate](https://slate.com/technology/2014/04/food-riots-and-revolution-grain-prices-predict-political-instability.html)). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month ([FAO](http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 100.0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110.0 but less than 120.0","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130.0","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 100.0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110.0 but less than 120.0","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130.0","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 40 25 28 3
6 What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower than 1.7%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 3.1%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower than 1.7%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 3.1%","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 88 59 61 3
7 Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year Good Judgment Open The 93rd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"The Father","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Judas and the Black Messiah","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sound of Metal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Trial of the Chicago 7","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"The Father","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Judas and the Black Messiah","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sound of Metal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Trial of the Chicago 7","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 61 65 45 46 3
8 Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing Good Judgment Open The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank (David Fincher)","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 44 46 31 3
9 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 98 99 67 3
10 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021 Good Judgment Open As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 153 170 104 108 3
11 What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 83 65 68 3
12 Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 91 92 68 69 3
13 What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 61 62 40 3
14 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km Good Judgment Open A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only launch an ICBM","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 56 151 37 91 3
15 How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 Good Judgment Open On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 163 58 61 37 3
16 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options). On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 168 42 61 3
17 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options). [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 376 138 96 44 3
18 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 520 410 144 99 3
19 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 349 553 91 148 3
20 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 137 380 80 93 3
21 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 Good Judgment Open China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. [{"name":"0","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 76 138 41 80 3
22 Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts Good Judgment Open Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 489 76 365 41 3
23 For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations Good Judgment Open Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 377 501 260 367 3
24 Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 397 387 331 262 3
25 In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 226 403 186 335 3
26 How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law Good Judgment Open With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 279 229 192 188 3
27 What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 Good Judgment Open Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 74 289 25 195 3
28 What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 171 75 91 25 3
29 What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 Good Judgment Open With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 148 174 52 92 3
30 Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 Good Judgment Open There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 133 151 57 53 3
31 Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 517 136 342 57 3
32 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin Good Judgment Open While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 525 48 343 3
33 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 181 79 80 48 3
34 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp Good Judgment Open Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 202 183 74 80 3
35 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa Good Judgment Open On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 92 203 53 74 3
36 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 246 93 117 53 3
37 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 184 252 138 117 3
38 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 185 139 3
39 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 182 123 3
40 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 163 87 3
41 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship Good Judgment Open Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 179 145 122 53 3
42 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities Good Judgment Open Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 162 155 87 86 3
43 Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 145 117 53 75 3
44 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 152 291 86 110 3
45 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 115 252 75 142 3
46 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 285 154 109 75 3
47 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 249 99 142 57 3
48 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 151 94 75 64 3
49 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 99 220 57 86 3
50 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 93 155 64 96 3
51 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 219 267 86 151 3
52 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6e0d020f1c0708070d0f1a0701001d2e0901010a041b0a09030b001a400d0103511d1b0c040b0d1a533f1b0b1d1a0701004b5c5e2d020f1c0708070d0f1a070100). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 155 404 96 197 3
53 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 263 406 148 72 3
54 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#accfc0cddec5cac5cfcdd8c5c3c2dfeccbc3c3c8c6d9c8cbc1c9c2d882cfc3c193dfd9cec6c9cfd891fdd9c9dfd8c5c3c2899e9cefc0cddec5cac5cfcdd8c5c3c2). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 403 567 197 114 3
55 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 398 164 72 117 3
56 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 533 286 112 146 3
57 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 162 88 117 50 3
58 Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 282 181 145 91 3
59 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 78 50 36 3
60 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 177 212 90 82 3
61 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 109 36 44 3
62 When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 211 244 82 68 3
63 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 108 168 44 65 3
64 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 242 122 68 3
65 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 167 277 65 139 3
66 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 121 259 68 92 3
67 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 276 110 138 37 3
68 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 258 193 92 68 3
69 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 109 209 37 107 3
70 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 190 284 67 74 3
71 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 209 224 107 86 3
72 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 283 368 74 145 3
73 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 223 111 86 76 3
74 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 361 171 144 81 3
75 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 111 217 76 64 3
76 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 171 485 81 197 3
77 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 208 449 63 216 3
78 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 482 281 197 147 3
79 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 447 374 215 228 3
80 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 281 297 147 103 3
81 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 372 346 228 104 3
82 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 295 252 103 126 3
83 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 342 272 104 99 3
84 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 252 86 126 44 3
85 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 271 412 99 209 3
86 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 115 44 61 3
87 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 410 89 207 32 3
88 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 114 274 61 43 3
89 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 89 144 32 30 3
90 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 272 462 43 207 3
91 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 144 218 30 82 3
92 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 455 601 205 201 3
93 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 216 564 82 252 3
94 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 597 1806 201 600 3
95 What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 561 517 252 216 3
96 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1790 339 599 206 3
97 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 517 562 216 251 3
98 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 339 235 206 126 3
99 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 559 335 248 187 3
100 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 327 126 167 3
101 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 331 312 185 88 3
102 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 326 240 167 60 3
103 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 310 328 88 171 3
104 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 240 272 60 107 3
105 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 328 1470 171 208 3
106 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 272 300 107 64 3
107 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1466 207 208 63 3
108 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 300 158 64 44 3
109 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 207 134 63 54 3
110 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 571 44 157 3
111 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 134 767 54 156 3
112 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 564 513 154 227 3
113 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 764 508 156 94 3
114 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 503 484 224 75 3
115 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 502 215 93 65 3
116 When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 482 422 74 161 3
117 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"England","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 215 385 65 115 3
118 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 421 706 160 204 3
119 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"England","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 385 1179 115 455 3
120 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 702 390 203 161 3
121 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1174 342 455 154 3
122 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 390 741 161 167 3
123 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 341 875 154 167 3
124 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 741 210 167 79 3
125 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 871 328 167 76 3
126 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 210 655 79 186 3
127 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 328 475 76 96 3
128 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 654 322 186 70 3
129 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 475 376 96 121 3
130 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 318 311 67 109 3
131 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 375 284 121 80 3
132 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 311 889 109 307 3
133 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 284 297 80 138 3
134 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 884 667 306 143 3
135 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 297 249 138 95 3
136 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 665 263 143 57 3
137 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 249 240 95 46 3
138 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 262 1203 57 186 3
139 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count. [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 238 2190 46 880 3
140 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1201 245 185 110 3
141 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). NOTE 22 March 2021: Cancellations of particular events alone without a cancellation of the Games themselves would not count. Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2171 1101 876 469 3
142 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 245 298 110 82 3
143 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1091 285 467 75 3
144 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 298 398 82 219 3
145 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 285 192 75 88 3
146 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 398 287 219 97 3
147 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 192 439 88 149 3
148 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 287 268 97 98 3
149 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 438 306 149 135 3
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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.676470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32352941176470584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.23958333333333337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7604166666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5288461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14423076923076925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6534653465346534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.13861386138613863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.17821782178217824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5188679245283019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6734693877551021,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11224489795918367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.17346938775510204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04081632653061225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.08910891089108912,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.7788461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.1826923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.29807692307692313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.4326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)","[{""name"":""In May or earlier"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in June (government goal)"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in July"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in August"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8712871287128712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.020408163265306124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.28571428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.3673469387755102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.17346938775510204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.15306122448979592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.8365384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.15384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2448979591836735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.2653061224489796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.489795918367347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.19801980198019803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.0594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.16831683168316833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.14893617021276595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.39361702127659576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.10638297872340426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.09574468085106382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.2553191489361702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.44230769230769235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.4807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.0594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2884615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.4615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.23711340206185563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.14432989690721648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.17525773195876287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.18556701030927833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.25773195876288657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8854166666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.05208333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.020833333333333336,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.04166666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3

1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.676470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32352941176470584,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. [{"name":"Yes, more than 121","probability":0.23958333333333337,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, not more than 121","probability":0.7604166666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5288461538461539,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14423076923076925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.04716981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.1320754716981132,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5188679245283019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.056603773584905655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14150943396226415,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6534653465346534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.13861386138613863,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.17821782178217824,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6734693877551021,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.11224489795918367,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.17346938775510204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.04081632653061225,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.08910891089108912,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.7788461538461539,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.1826923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H [{"name":"France","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Japan","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same medals count","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.23076923076923075,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.29807692307692313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.4326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021? In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind To be considered "deadly", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"In May or earlier","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in June (government goal)","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in July","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in August","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind To be considered "deadly", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9504950495049505,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". [{"name":"Saad-Eddine El Othmani","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelilah Benkirane","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else from PJD","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else not from PJD","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats. [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.030303030303030304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696969696969697,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8712871287128712,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Denis Sassou Nguesso","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mathias Dzon","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Idriss Déby Itno","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Saleh Kezabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Succès Masra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... [{"name":"Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed","probability":0.9313725490196079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abshir Aden Ferro","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharif Sheikh Ahmed","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.020408163265306124,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.28571428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.3673469387755102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.17346938775510204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.15306122448979592,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.8365384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.15384615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.2448979591836735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.2653061224489796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.489795918367347,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.2884615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.4615384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.19801980198019803,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.5346534653465347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.0594059405940594,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.16831683168316833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.26732673267326734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.5346534653465347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.039603960396039604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.09900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.14893617021276595,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.39361702127659576,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.10638297872340426,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.09574468085106382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.2553191489361702,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.23711340206185563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.14432989690721648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.17525773195876287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.18556701030927833,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.25773195876288657,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.44230769230769235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.4807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"USA","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8910891089108911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.0594059405940594,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8854166666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.05208333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.020833333333333336,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.04166666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind [{"name":"In 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q1, 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3

156
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.09523809523809523,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"probability": 0.9047619047619047,
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}
],
@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"probability": 0.04716981132075472,
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},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
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"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
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},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
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},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
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"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
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},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
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"probability": 0.1320754716981132,
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},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5288461538461539,
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},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
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},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"probability": 0.018867924528301886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
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},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"probability": 0.056603773584905655,
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},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.14423076923076925,
"probability": 0.14150943396226415,
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}
],
@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.6534653465346534,
"probability": 0.6734693877551021,
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},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
"probability": 0.13861386138613863,
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{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
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"probability": 0.17346938775510204,
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{
"name": "Neither of them",
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}
],
@ -194,17 +194,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
"probability": 0.900990099009901,
"probability": 0.7788461538461539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
"probability": 0.08910891089108912,
"probability": 0.1826923076923077,
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},
{
"name": "Not in 2021",
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
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}
],
@ -257,7 +257,7 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -267,28 +267,62 @@
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.22,
"probability": 0.23076923076923075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.33,
"probability": 0.29807692307692313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.4,
"probability": 0.4326923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
@ -296,12 +330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09,
"probability": 0.04950495049504951,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.91,
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}
],
@ -387,12 +421,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"probability": 0.59,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8712871287128712,
"probability": 0.41,
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}
],
@ -571,17 +605,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.2448979591836735,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
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},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
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"probability": 0.4615384615384615,
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}
],
@ -595,7 +629,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
"probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"probability": 0.26732673267326734,
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},
{
@ -605,17 +639,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
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},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
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{
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{
@ -634,27 +668,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@ -668,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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"probability": 0.49,
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},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.4807692307692308,
"probability": 0.33,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"probability": 0.13,
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}
],
@ -697,52 +731,28 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.8910891089108911,
"probability": 0.8854166666666667,
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},
{
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"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"probability": 0.05208333333333334,
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},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"probability": 0.020833333333333336,
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},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"probability": 0.04166666666666667,
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}
],
"description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"options": [
{
"name": "In 2020",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
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},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.99,
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}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",

3
data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
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data/ladbrokes-questions.json
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@ -1801,42 +1801,80 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.45830645184422397,
"probability": 0.4553965453928366,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.45830645184422397,
"probability": 0.4553965453928366,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.004560263202430089,
"probability": 0.0045313089093814585,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.026959203049660235,
"probability": 0.026788032081931566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
"probability": 0.04364823350897371,
"probability": 0.04337109956122253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004560263202430089,
"probability": 0.0045313089093814585,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heritage Party",
"probability": 0.001829566674028838,
"probability": 0.0018179502810093276,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.001829566674028838,
"probability": 0.0018179502810093276,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Womens Equality Party",
"probability": 0.0018179502810093276,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "North East Party",
"probability": 0.0045313089093814585,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.02695209479152588,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.1309101747016971,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.009072982405068118,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.8330647481017089,
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}
],

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data/metaculus-questions.csv
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data/metaculus-questions.json
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data/metaforecasts.json
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data/polymarket-questions.csv
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@ -1,35 +1,25 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7419860668140615807084140321403954"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2580139331859384192915859678596046"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273",,4
"Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4589603293628705533944970215043052"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5410396706371294466055029784956948"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","142",,4
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6318227936290265834227396493220084"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3681772063709734165772603506779916"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","288",,4
"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3639493742103013766910825544170365"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6360506257896986233089174455829635"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","58",,4
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.899902472446619605531513543861991"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.100097527553380394468486456138009"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","773",,4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.1989690944508968514893269020570187"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.7093390553214963868809156682391966"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.09169185022760676162975742970378467"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","221",,4
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.003768290132736289900283583013215554"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9962317098672637100997164169867844"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","183",,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6352367777225026700749571570612815"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3647632222774973299250428429387185"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","305",,4
"Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4934673987490112410882497658828175"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5065326012509887589117502341171825"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144",,4
"Will Kygo's Nifty Gateway drop generate over $5M in total sales?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kygo-s-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-over-5-m-in-total-sales",,"This is a market on whether the Kygo’s NFT drop on March 24, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate over $5 million in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2 PM ET on March 24 via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve to ""Yes” if the sum of every official Kygo NFT sold is greater than $5 million USD (not including secondary sales) and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve on March 25 according to data collected for the entirety of the Kygo drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, this market will resolve to 50:50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,,
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.897865272633556215468582834952382"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.102134727366443784531417165047618"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","779",,4
"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021","PolyMarket"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3730739153552933116420423896569491"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6269260846447066883579576103430509"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","361",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.0009755032690604231130305420043307177"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9990244967309395768869694579956693"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4230",,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2250027741956663616037131001744237"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7749972258043336383962868998255763"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","392",,4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.1893501096239316465683727880520586"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.7220494964451650249984403972764872"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.08860039393090332843318681467145425"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","225",,4
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4566924166870046860106226526705108"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5433075833129953139893773473294892"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","73",,4
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4217115990029240092583552949775101"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5782884009970759907416447050224899"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","20",,3
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1051841940487428919696537685273426"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8948158059512571080303462314726574"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","378",,4
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.03331612991634654799678576229026747"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9666838700836534520032142377097325"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","687",,3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4747966309638626266673312340444356"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5252033690361373733326687659555644"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6451",,4
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",,"This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[]",,,
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4128864215080620917977480432273247"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5871135784919379082022519567726753"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","23",,3
"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET.
At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
@ -39,15 +29,27 @@ Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in questi
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Less than 70"",""probability"":""0.135057161334811733422218051611267"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70-80"",""probability"":""0.1893482128145028653669945522977703"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81-90"",""probability"":""0.2086272963187060311953145384409906"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""91-100"",""probability"":""0.1644573464032442674795001943471555"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""101-110"",""probability"":""0.1362699699862844271522366892617025"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110"",""probability"":""0.1662400131424506753837359740411142"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","132",,4
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05642390306336958746323884215762756"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9435760969366304125367611578423724"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79",,3
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7065404777964145814775647902265153"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2934595222035854185224352097734847"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","53",,4
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06708438860264308040231069716888072"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9329156113973569195976893028311193"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","57",,2
"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2490933567385850873838566319370965"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7509066432614149126161433680629035"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","60",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",,"This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[]",,,
"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",,"This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70"",""probability"":""0.1659067357295232762815727317227981"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70-80"",""probability"":""0.2281908249115604565012079476027038"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81-90"",""probability"":""0.2113887982645977022523220577451319"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""91-100"",""probability"":""0.1681856204909272683047156653624878"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""101-110"",""probability"":""0.09551803656817304150491049924470857"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110"",""probability"":""0.1308099840352182551552710983221696"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.001350535220533159165944515575157176"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9986494647794668408340554844248428"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4246",,3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3717093232843742962435223993686275"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6282906767156257037564776006313725"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6721",,4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.09503434264637755008380164872473426"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9049656573536224499161983512752657"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","386",,3
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.03930005440862140608560862618307552"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9606999455913785939143913738169245"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","701",,3
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.118043409650728971552473796723341"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.881956590349271028447526203276659"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","68",,4
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",,"This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[]",,,
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.988135486419004417999200614962648"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.01186451358099558200079938503735201"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1334",,3
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.03310473569021722475727672094680598"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.966895264309782775242723279053194"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64",,2
"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2195340864298087991219769515517244"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7804659135701912008780230484482756"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","65",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07105258596577837608798404930567936"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9289474140342216239120159506943206"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","91",,3
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3387749311564403192047464722029106"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6612250688435596807952535277970894"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1927",,4
"Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and ""No"" otherwise.
This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5993340969240034537281806084488767"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4006659030759965462718193915511233"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","58",,4
"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7126251830004892165196110230809552"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2873748169995107834803889769190448"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","48",,4
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7419860668140615807084140321403954","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2580139331859384192915859678596046","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 273 4
Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March? https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march PolyMarket This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4589603293628705533944970215043052","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5410396706371294466055029784956948","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 142 4
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6318227936290265834227396493220084","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3681772063709734165772603506779916","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 288 4
Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3639493742103013766910825544170365","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6360506257896986233089174455829635","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 58 4
Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.899902472446619605531513543861991","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.100097527553380394468486456138009","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 773 4
2 Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.1989690944508968514893269020570187","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.7093390553214963868809156682391966","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.09169185022760676162975742970378467","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6352367777225026700749571570612815","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3647632222774973299250428429387185","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 221 305 4
3 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? Will inflation be 0.5% or more from February to March? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 https://polymarket.com/market/will-inflation-be-0-5-or-more-from-february-to-march PolyMarket This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. This is a market on whether month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U) will be 0.5% or more from February to March, when the BLS releases month-to-month inflation information for the preceding month of March on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by exactly 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) or more from February 2021 to March 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by less than 0.5 percent (i.e. fifty hundredths of 1%) from February 2021 to March 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS March 2021 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled for release on April 13, 2021, 8:30 am ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note that the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%, 0.1%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (i.e. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “No”, if it is 0.5%, this market will resolve to “Yes”). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.003768290132736289900283583013215554","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9962317098672637100997164169867844","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4934673987490112410882497658828175","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5065326012509887589117502341171825","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 183 144 3 4
4 Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021? Will Kygo's Nifty Gateway drop generate over $5M in total sales? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-kygo-s-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-over-5-m-in-total-sales PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether the Kygo’s NFT drop on March 24, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate over $5 million in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2 PM ET on March 24 via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve to "Yes” if the sum of every official Kygo NFT sold is greater than $5 million USD (not including secondary sales) and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve on March 25 according to data collected for the entirety of the Kygo drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, this market will resolve to 50:50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3730739153552933116420423896569491","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6269260846447066883579576103430509","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [] 361 4
5 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.0009755032690604231130305420043307177","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9990244967309395768869694579956693","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.897865272633556215468582834952382","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.102134727366443784531417165047618","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4230 779 3 4
6 Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5? Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4217115990029240092583552949775101","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5782884009970759907416447050224899","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2250027741956663616037131001744237","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7749972258043336383962868998255763","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 392 3 4
7 Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1051841940487428919696537685273426","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8948158059512571080303462314726574","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.1893501096239316465683727880520586","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.7220494964451650249984403972764872","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.08860039393090332843318681467145425","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 378 225 4
8 Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021? Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 PolyMarket This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to "Yes". This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.03331612991634654799678576229026747","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9666838700836534520032142377097325","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [] 687 3
9 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. . [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4747966309638626266673312340444356","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5252033690361373733326687659555644","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4566924166870046860106226526705108","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5433075833129953139893773473294892","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 6451 73 4
10 Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5? https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4128864215080620917977480432273247","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5871135784919379082022519567726753","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 3
11 How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Less than 70","probability":"0.135057161334811733422218051611267","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70-80","probability":"0.1893482128145028653669945522977703","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81-90","probability":"0.2086272963187060311953145384409906","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"91-100","probability":"0.1644573464032442674795001943471555","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"101-110","probability":"0.1362699699862844271522366892617025","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110","probability":"0.1662400131424506753837359740411142","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 70","probability":"0.1659067357295232762815727317227981","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70-80","probability":"0.2281908249115604565012079476027038","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81-90","probability":"0.2113887982645977022523220577451319","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"91-100","probability":"0.1681856204909272683047156653624878","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"101-110","probability":"0.09551803656817304150491049924470857","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110","probability":"0.1308099840352182551552710983221696","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 132 186 4
12 Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05642390306336958746323884215762756","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9435760969366304125367611578423724","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.001350535220533159165944515575157176","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9986494647794668408340554844248428","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 4246 3
Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3? https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7065404777964145814775647902265153","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2934595222035854185224352097734847","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 53 4
13 Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30? Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30 https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.06708438860264308040231069716888072","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9329156113973569195976893028311193","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3717093232843742962435223993686275","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6282906767156257037564776006313725","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 57 6721 2 4
14 Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021? Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed PolyMarket This is a market on whether the American "observed mask usage" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2490933567385850873838566319370965","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7509066432614149126161433680629035","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.09503434264637755008380164872473426","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9049656573536224499161983512752657","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 60 386 4 3
15 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to "Yes". [] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.03930005440862140608560862618307552","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9606999455913785939143913738169245","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 701 3
16 Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends? Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. [] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.118043409650728971552473796723341","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.881956590349271028447526203276659","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 68 4
17 Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 PolyMarket This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome. This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.988135486419004417999200614962648","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.01186451358099558200079938503735201","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [] 1334 3
18 Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30? https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30 PolyMarket This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.03310473569021722475727672094680598","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.966895264309782775242723279053194","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 64 2
19 Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the American "observed mask usage" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2195340864298087991219769515517244","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7804659135701912008780230484482756","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 65 4
20 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.07105258596577837608798404930567936","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9289474140342216239120159506943206","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 91 3
21 Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3387749311564403192047464722029106","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6612250688435596807952535277970894","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1927 4
22 Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5993340969240034537281806084488767","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4006659030759965462718193915511233","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 58 4
23 Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7126251830004892165196110230809552","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2873748169995107834803889769190448","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 48 4
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data/polymarket-questions.json
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[
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7419860668140615807084140321403954",
"probability": "0.6352367777225026700749571570612815",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2580139331859384192915859678596046",
"probability": "0.3647632222774973299250428429387185",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "273",
"numforecasts": "305",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -27,57 +27,28 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4589603293628705533944970215043052",
"probability": "0.4934673987490112410882497658828175",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5410396706371294466055029784956948",
"probability": "0.5065326012509887589117502341171825",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "142",
"numforecasts": "144",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n \n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6318227936290265834227396493220084",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3681772063709734165772603506779916",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
"title": "Will Kygo's Nifty Gateway drop generate over $5M in total sales?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kygo-s-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-over-5-m-in-total-sales",
"address": "0x3e7B280f19DD16205d71Fe4A723eE6AD8C6FCAc8",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Kygo’s NFT drop on March 24, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate over $5 million in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2 PM ET on March 24 via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve to \"Yes” if the sum of every official Kygo NFT sold is greater than $5 million USD (not including secondary sales) and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve on March 25 according to data collected for the entirety of the Kygo drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, this market will resolve to 50:50. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"numforecasts": "288",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3639493742103013766910825544170365",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6360506257896986233089174455829635",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "58",
"stars": 4
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
@ -87,16 +58,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.899902472446619605531513543861991",
"probability": "0.897865272633556215468582834952382",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.100097527553380394468486456138009",
"probability": "0.102134727366443784531417165047618",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "773",
"numforecasts": "779",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2250027741956663616037131001744237",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7749972258043336383962868998255763",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "392",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -107,61 +98,112 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.1989690944508968514893269020570187",
"probability": "0.1893501096239316465683727880520586",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.7093390553214963868809156682391966",
"probability": "0.7220494964451650249984403972764872",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.09169185022760676162975742970378467",
"probability": "0.08860039393090332843318681467145425",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "221",
"numforecasts": "225",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.003768290132736289900283583013215554",
"probability": "0.4566924166870046860106226526705108",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9962317098672637100997164169867844",
"probability": "0.5433075833129953139893773473294892",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "183",
"numforecasts": "73",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4128864215080620917977480432273247",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5871135784919379082022519567726753",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "23",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3730739153552933116420423896569491",
"name": "Less than 70",
"probability": "0.1659067357295232762815727317227981",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6269260846447066883579576103430509",
"name": "70-80",
"probability": "0.2281908249115604565012079476027038",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81-90",
"probability": "0.2113887982645977022523220577451319",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "91-100",
"probability": "0.1681856204909272683047156653624878",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "101-110",
"probability": "0.09551803656817304150491049924470857",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110",
"probability": "0.1308099840352182551552710983221696",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "361",
"numforecasts": "186",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -172,76 +214,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0009755032690604231130305420043307177",
"probability": "0.001350535220533159165944515575157176",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9990244967309395768869694579956693",
"probability": "0.9986494647794668408340554844248428",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4230",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4217115990029240092583552949775101",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5782884009970759907416447050224899",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "20",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1051841940487428919696537685273426",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8948158059512571080303462314726574",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "378",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03331612991634654799678576229026747",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9666838700836534520032142377097325",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "687",
"numforecasts": "4246",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -252,108 +234,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4747966309638626266673312340444356",
"probability": "0.3717093232843742962435223993686275",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5252033690361373733326687659555644",
"probability": "0.6282906767156257037564776006313725",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "6451",
"numforecasts": "6721",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.09503434264637755008380164872473426",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9049656573536224499161983512752657",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "386",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03930005440862140608560862618307552",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9606999455913785939143913738169245",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "701",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"address": "0xAb3C8AC81202356ce2A5afEB663245abFB8b10f4",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-30-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 30, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,464 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70",
"probability": "0.135057161334811733422218051611267",
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.118043409650728971552473796723341",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "70-80",
"probability": "0.1893482128145028653669945522977703",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81-90",
"probability": "0.2086272963187060311953145384409906",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "91-100",
"probability": "0.1644573464032442674795001943471555",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "101-110",
"probability": "0.1362699699862844271522366892617025",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110",
"probability": "0.1662400131424506753837359740411142",
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.881956590349271028447526203276659",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "132",
"numforecasts": "68",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05642390306336958746323884215762756",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9435760969366304125367611578423724",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"numforecasts": "79",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7065404777964145814775647902265153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2934595222035854185224352097734847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "53",
"stars": 4
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
@ -363,16 +325,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06708438860264308040231069716888072",
"probability": "0.03310473569021722475727672094680598",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9329156113973569195976893028311193",
"probability": "0.966895264309782775242723279053194",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasts": "64",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -383,58 +345,96 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2490933567385850873838566319370965",
"probability": "0.2195340864298087991219769515517244",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7509066432614149126161433680629035",
"probability": "0.7804659135701912008780230484482756",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "60",
"numforecasts": "65",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.988135486419004417999200614962648",
"probability": "0.07105258596577837608798404930567936",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.01186451358099558200079938503735201",
"probability": "0.9289474140342216239120159506943206",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1334",
"numforecasts": "91",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3387749311564403192047464722029106",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6612250688435596807952535277970894",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1927",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5993340969240034537281806084488767",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4006659030759965462718193915511233",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "58",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7126251830004892165196110230809552",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2873748169995107834803889769190448",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "48",
"stars": 4
}
]

199
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -2,19 +2,19 @@
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4326923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5242718446601942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4368932038834951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5392156862745099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.46078431372549017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5445544554455446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45544554455445546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
@ -26,11 +26,11 @@ Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority cer
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.8055555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.8504672897196262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstand
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -67,11 +67,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8712871287128713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.49122807017543857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.20175438596491227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.07017543859649122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06140350877192982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.45614035087719296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22807017543859648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.07017543859649122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07017543859649122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.05263157894736841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -85,11 +85,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -97,19 +97,19 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6237623762376238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.37623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -123,12 +123,12 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.16666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.9074074074074073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -137,21 +137,21 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.41525423728813554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.27118644067796605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.07627118644067796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07627118644067796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.0423728813559322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.033898305084745756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4144144144144144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.2882882882882883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.08108108108108107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.47787610619469023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.22123893805309733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.19469026548672563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.07964601769911503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.4954954954954955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.19819819819819817,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.18018018018018017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.09909909909909909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.22321428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.16071428571428567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.08928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.08928571428571426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.053571428571428555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.053571428571428555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04464285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04464285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04464285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.035714285714285705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.026785714285714277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.026785714285714277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.026785714285714277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.026785714285714277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.017857142857142853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.22123893805309727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.17699115044247785,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.0973451327433628,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.08849557522123892,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06194690265486724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05309734513274335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03539823008849557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.026548672566371674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026548672566371674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.026548672566371674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.026548672566371674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.017699115044247784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5145631067961165,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.2524271844660194,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07766990291262135,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.0679611650485437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.058252427184466014,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.4953271028037383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -176,27 +176,27 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.2079207920792079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.3173076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.16346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.32710280373831774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.308411214953271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.205607476635514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@ -204,7 +204,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -214,22 +214,22 @@ End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5789473684210525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3070175438596491,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5862068965517241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3017241379310344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8962264150943395,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.898148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
@ -241,13 +241,13 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.616822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.12149532710280374,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5478260869565217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.21739130434782605,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.1217391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.026086956521739126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -256,17 +256,17 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3611111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.35185185185185186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.13888888888888887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.36893203883495146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3495145631067961,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.14563106796116504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
@ -281,17 +281,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.6019417475728155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.2621359223300971,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.6176470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.2549019607843137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Einer Elhauge"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Douglas Melamed"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Einer Elhauge"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Douglas Melamed"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@ -305,41 +305,41 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4077669902912621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10679611650485436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.058252427184466014,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.3904761904761904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6698113207547169,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5742574257425742,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.42574257425742573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.46666666666666656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.28571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.05714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Lee"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.37037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.3055555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thea Lee"",""probability"":0.05555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -354,11 +354,11 @@ In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden w
Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.6052631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.1754385964912281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.10526315789473685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.061403508771929835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01754385964912281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01754385964912281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.9238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anna Caballero"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@ -368,30 +368,30 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.6153846153846152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12499999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06730769230769229,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.019230769230769225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.009615384615384612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.14851485148514848,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0693069306930693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.0396039603960396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.22857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5221238938053097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.30088495575221236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.09734513274336282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.7155963302752293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.14678899082568805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.7181818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.13636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.045454545454545456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vernon Jones"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vernon Jones"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
@ -406,33 +406,33 @@ Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7570093457943925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7547169811320755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09433962264150944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.4324324324324324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.3333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.09009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.06306306306306306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vicky Hartzler"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Brunner"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.45544554455445546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -441,11 +441,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -453,7 +453,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.8514851485148515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.8712871287128713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., ""delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
@ -462,72 +462,64 @@ Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general electi
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.
Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.35514018691588783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.29906542056074764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.24299065420560748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.102803738317757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.3584905660377358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.24528301886792453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.09433962264150944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kirsten Gillibrand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Beasley"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cheri Beasley"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent.""
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8365384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.8380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0.7019230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shontel Brown"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barnes Jr."",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bryan Flannery"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Johnson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tariq Shabazz"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley Smith"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dennis Kucinich"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shontel Brown"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barnes Jr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bryan Flannery"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Johnson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tariq Shabazz"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley Smith"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dennis Kucinich"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Lasry"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Godlewski"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Nelson"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Ron Kind"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Lasry"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Godlewski"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Nelson"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Mo Brooks"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katie Britt"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Merrill"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lynda Blanchard"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Shelby"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Moore"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Sessions"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Mo Brooks"",""probability"":0.591304347826087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katie Britt"",""probability"":0.208695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Merrill"",""probability"":0.11304347826086955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lynda Blanchard"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Shelby"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Moore"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Sessions"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Bill Peduto"",""probability"":0.9702970297029703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Gainey"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Bill Peduto"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Gainey"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election","PredictIt","The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract ""Under 2%"" shall resolve to Yes.
Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Under 2%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2% to 4%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4% to 6%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6% to 8%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8% to 10%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10% to 12%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12% to 14%"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14% to 16%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16% to 18%"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18% or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senate votes to confirm Rachel Levine as Asst. Sec. for Health by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7186/How-many-Senate-votes-to-confirm-Rachel-Levine-as-Asst-Sec-for-Health-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rachel Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Levine be confirmed to position of Assistant Secretary for Health in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""53 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""78 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""53 or fewer"",""probability"":0.6272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 56"",""probability"":0.23636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.045454545454545456,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.01818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 or more"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1.6M"",""probability"":0.11403508771929824,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.6M to 1.625M"",""probability"":0.07894736842105261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.625M to 1.65M"",""probability"":0.08771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.65M to 1.675M"",""probability"":0.09649122807017543,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.675M to 1.7M"",""probability"":0.15789473684210523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.7M to 1.725M"",""probability"":0.18421052631578944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.725M to 1.75M"",""probability"":0.13157894736842105,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.75M to 1.775M"",""probability"":0.09649122807017543,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.775M to 1.8M"",""probability"":0.026315789473684206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.8M or more"",""probability"":0.026315789473684206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1.6M"",""probability"":0.09734513274336282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.6M to 1.625M"",""probability"":0.08849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.625M to 1.65M"",""probability"":0.09734513274336282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.65M to 1.675M"",""probability"":0.12389380530973451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.675M to 1.7M"",""probability"":0.17699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.7M to 1.725M"",""probability"":0.19469026548672563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.725M to 1.75M"",""probability"":0.12389380530973451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.75M to 1.775M"",""probability"":0.07079646017699115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.775M to 1.8M"",""probability"":0.017699115044247787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.8M or more"",""probability"":0.008849557522123894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Chuck Grassley"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat Grassley"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ashley Hinson"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Carlin"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Whitaker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Chuck Grassley"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat Grassley"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Carlin"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Whitaker"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ashley Hinson"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Wally Adeyemo as Dep. Treasury Sec. by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7191/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wally-Adeyemo-as-Dep-Treasury-Sec-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wally Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@ -535,18 +527,29 @@ Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Adeyemo to the position of
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008620689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.008620689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.008620689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.008620689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02586206896551724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07758620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.10344827586206896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.1810344827586207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.18965517241379312,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.3879310344827587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm David Turk as Deputy Energy Sec. by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7192/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-David-Turk-as-Deputy-Energy-Sec-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of David Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Turk be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.08928571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.17857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.6517857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).
For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""3 or fewer"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5"",""probability"":0.5188679245283019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7"",""probability"":0.3584905660377358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""3 or fewer"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Ron Johnson"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Walker"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Gallagher"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kevin Nicholson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Steil"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""59 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""84 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""59 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5233644859813084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.10280373831775698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.046728971962616814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.0747663551401869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.046728971962616814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.046728971962616814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 to 83"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""84 or more"",""probability"":0.06542056074766354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Melanie Stansbury"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Antoinette Lopez"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Patricia Caballero"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Randi McGinn"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Victor Reyes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Georgene Louis"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Selinda Guerrero"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Fernández"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5192307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4326923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5242718446601942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4368932038834951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5392156862745099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.46078431372549017,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5445544554455446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.45544554455445546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.12962962962962962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.8055555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.08411214953271028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.8504672897196262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8910891089108911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8811881188118812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8712871287128713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.49122807017543857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.20175438596491227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.07017543859649122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.06140350877192982,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.05263157894736841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paperboy Prince","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Fernando Mateo","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.45614035087719296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.22807017543859648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.07017543859649122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.07017543859649122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.05263157894736841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.017543859649122806,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paperboy Prince","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Fernando Mateo","probability":0.008771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5800000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6019417475728155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.39805825242718446,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6237623762376238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.37623762376237624,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.16666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.9074074074074073,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.020000000000000018,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.41525423728813554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.27118644067796605,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.07627118644067796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.07627118644067796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.0423728813559322,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.033898305084745756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.4144144144144144,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.2882882882882883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.08108108108108107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.06306306306306306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.036036036036036036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.018018018018018018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.018018018018018018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.47787610619469023,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.22123893805309733,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.19469026548672563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.07964601769911503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.4954954954954955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.19819819819819817,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.18018018018018017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.09909909909909909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.22321428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.16071428571428567,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.08928571428571426,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.08928571428571426,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.053571428571428555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.053571428571428555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.04464285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.04464285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.04464285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.035714285714285705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.035714285714285705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.026785714285714277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.026785714285714277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.026785714285714277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.026785714285714277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.017857142857142853,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.22123893805309727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.17699115044247785,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.0973451327433628,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.08849557522123892,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06194690265486724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.05309734513274335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.03539823008849557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03539823008849557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.03539823008849557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.03539823008849557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.03539823008849557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.026548672566371674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.026548672566371674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.026548672566371674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.026548672566371674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.017699115044247784,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
33 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
34 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"33 or fewer","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or 41","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42 or 43","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
35 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.5145631067961165,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.2524271844660194,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.07766990291262135,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.0679611650485437,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.058252427184466014,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.4953271028037383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.24299065420560748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.08411214953271028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.06542056074766356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.06542056074766356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.037383177570093455,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
36 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
58 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Einer Elhauge","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Douglas Melamed","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Juan Arteaga","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gigi Sohn","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edward Smith","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Einer Elhauge","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Douglas Melamed","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Juan Arteaga","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edward Smith","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gigi Sohn","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
59 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.8627450980392157,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.12745098039215685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
60 How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
61 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.4077669902912621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.1359223300970874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.10679611650485436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.08737864077669902,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.08737864077669902,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.058252427184466014,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.04854368932038835,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.038834951456310676,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.3904761904761904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.14285714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.07619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.05714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.047619047619047616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.047619047619047616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.02857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
62 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tim Ryan","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Acton","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nan Whaley","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joyce Beatty","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emilia Sykes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Tim Ryan","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Acton","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joyce Beatty","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nan Whaley","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emilia Sykes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
63 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.6698113207547169,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.14150943396226415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.10377358490566037,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.0660377358490566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.6666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.14285714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.10476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
64 How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
67 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
68 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4752475247524752,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
69 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.46666666666666656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.28571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.05714285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thea Lee","probability":0.04761904761904761,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.019047619047619042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.019047619047619042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.37037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.3055555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.08333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thea Lee","probability":0.05555555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.037037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
70 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
71 Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.6052631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.1754385964912281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.10526315789473685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.061403508771929835,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.01754385964912281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.01754385964912281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.008771929824561405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.008771929824561405,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.9238095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anna Caballero","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
72 Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
73 Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
74 Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.6153846153846152,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrej Babiš","probability":0.12499999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mario Draghi","probability":0.06730769230769229,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Lukashenko","probability":0.03846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.03846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.028846153846153837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pedro Sánchez","probability":0.028846153846153837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Rutte","probability":0.028846153846153837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Viktor Orbán","probability":0.019230769230769225,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.009615384615384612,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.5940594059405939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrej Babiš","probability":0.14851485148514848,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mario Draghi","probability":0.0693069306930693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Lukashenko","probability":0.0396039603960396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pedro Sánchez","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Rutte","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Viktor Orbán","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.029702970297029695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.0198019801980198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.0099009900990099,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
75 Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yonhy Lescano","probability":0.5714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rafael López Aliaga","probability":0.22857142857142856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Forsyth","probability":0.10476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Verónika Mendoza","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hernando de Soto","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keiko Fujimori","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Urresti","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"César Acuña","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Beingolea","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julio Guzmán","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ollanta Humala","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Salaverry","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yonhy Lescano","probability":0.5221238938053097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rafael López Aliaga","probability":0.30088495575221236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Forsyth","probability":0.09734513274336282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hernando de Soto","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keiko Fujimori","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Verónika Mendoza","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Urresti","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"César Acuña","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Beingolea","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julio Guzmán","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ollanta Humala","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Salaverry","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
76 Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Susan Wright","probability":0.7155963302752293,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jana Sanchez","probability":0.14678899082568805,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jake Ellzey","probability":0.045871559633027525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Harrison","probability":0.027522935779816512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Rodimer","probability":0.027522935779816512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katrina Pierson","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sery Kim","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lydia Bean","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shawn Lassiter","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Susan Wright","probability":0.7181818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jana Sanchez","probability":0.13636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jake Ellzey","probability":0.045454545454545456,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Harrison","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Rodimer","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lydia Bean","probability":0.01818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katrina Pierson","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sery Kim","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shawn Lassiter","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
77 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Lorena González","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colleen Echohawk","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bruce Harrell","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Grant Houston","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lance Randall","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenny Durkan","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lorena González","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colleen Echohawk","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bruce Harrell","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Grant Houston","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lance Randall","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenny Durkan","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
85 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
86 Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
87 How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"38 or fewer","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"39","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"41","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"43","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
88 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
89 Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
90 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
91 Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.8514851485148515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.1485148514851485,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.8712871287128713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
92 What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election. The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market. Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President. Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Dem. House & Senate","probability":0.35514018691588783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rep. House & Senate","probability":0.29906542056074764,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House, D Senate","probability":0.24299065420560748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House, R Senate","probability":0.102803738317757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Dem. House & Senate","probability":0.3584905660377358,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rep. House & Senate","probability":0.3018867924528302,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House, D Senate","probability":0.24528301886792453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House, R Senate","probability":0.09433962264150944,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
93 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kirsten Gillibrand","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
94 Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
95 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Jeff Jackson","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cheri Beasley","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Erica Smith","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Lee Watkins","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heath Shuler","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jeff Jackson","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cheri Beasley","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Erica Smith","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Lee Watkins","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heath Shuler","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
97 Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the Democratic nomination in the 2021 OH-11 special election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0.7019230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shontel Brown","probability":0.24038461538461536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barnes Jr.","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bryan Flannery","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Johnson","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tariq Shabazz","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley Smith","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dennis Kucinich","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shontel Brown","probability":0.24545454545454545,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barnes Jr.","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bryan Flannery","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Johnson","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tariq Shabazz","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley Smith","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dennis Kucinich","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
98 Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ron Kind","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Lasry","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Godlewski","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Nelson","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Ron Kind","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Lasry","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Godlewski","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Nelson","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
99 Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) shall be a United States Senator on the End Date listed below. Any resignation or official removal from office that is effective at any time prior to the End Date shall cause this market to resolve No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16000000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
100 Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Alabama Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Mo Brooks","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katie Britt","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Merrill","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lynda Blanchard","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Shelby","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Moore","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Sessions","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Mo Brooks","probability":0.591304347826087,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katie Britt","probability":0.208695652173913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Merrill","probability":0.11304347826086955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lynda Blanchard","probability":0.0608695652173913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Shelby","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Moore","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Sessions","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
101 Who will win the 2021 Pittsburgh Democratic Mayoral nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7183/Who-will-win-the-2021-Pittsburgh-Democratic-Mayoral-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Democratic nomination for Mayor of Pittsburgh, PA. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Bill Peduto","probability":0.9702970297029703,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Gainey","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Bill Peduto","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Gainey","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
102 What will be the margin in the first round of the LA-02 House special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7184/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-LA-02-House-special-election PredictIt The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference between the percentage of votes for the first-place finisher and the percentage of votes for the second-place finisher, based on all votes for ballot-listed candidates officially reported, in the first round of the 2021 special election for Representative in Congress from Louisiana's 2nd District. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest share of the popular vote, the contract "Under 2%" shall resolve to Yes. Percentages of the vote for each candidate will be calculated based on the raw vote totals reported. The difference between candidates will be calculated from unrounded percentages. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Under 2%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2% to 4%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4% to 6%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6% to 8%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8% to 10%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10% to 12%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12% to 14%","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14% to 16%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16% to 18%","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18% or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
103 How many Senate votes to confirm Rachel Levine as Asst. Sec. for Health by 4/30? How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7186/How-many-Senate-votes-to-confirm-Rachel-Levine-as-Asst-Sec-for-Health-by-4-30 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rachel Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Dr. Levine be confirmed to position of Assistant Secretary for Health in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "53 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "78 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Dr. Levine to the position of Assistant Secretary for Health be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"53 or fewer","probability":0.6272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54 to 56","probability":0.23636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57 to 59","probability":0.045454545454545456,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 to 62","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 to 65","probability":0.01818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 68","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 to 71","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"72 to 74","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 to 77","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 or more","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 1.6M","probability":0.09734513274336282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.6M to 1.625M","probability":0.08849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.625M to 1.65M","probability":0.09734513274336282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.65M to 1.675M","probability":0.12389380530973451,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.675M to 1.7M","probability":0.17699115044247787,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.7M to 1.725M","probability":0.19469026548672563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.725M to 1.75M","probability":0.12389380530973451,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.75M to 1.775M","probability":0.07079646017699115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.775M to 1.8M","probability":0.017699115044247787,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.8M or more","probability":0.008849557522123894,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
104 How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in tenth California report? Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7188/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-tenth-California-report https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State upon release of its tenth status report. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Fewer than 1.6M","probability":0.11403508771929824,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.6M to 1.625M","probability":0.07894736842105261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.625M to 1.65M","probability":0.08771929824561403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.65M to 1.675M","probability":0.09649122807017543,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.675M to 1.7M","probability":0.15789473684210523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.7M to 1.725M","probability":0.18421052631578944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.725M to 1.75M","probability":0.13157894736842105,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.75M to 1.775M","probability":0.09649122807017543,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.775M to 1.8M","probability":0.026315789473684206,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.8M or more","probability":0.026315789473684206,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
105 Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021? Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that California Governor Gavin Newsom is recalled as a result of an election that takes place before the End Date listed below. Results of a recall election held before the End Date shall qualify for resolution of this market even if the results of any such election are not certified until after the End Date. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Chuck Grassley","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat Grassley","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Carlin","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Whitaker","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ashley Hinson","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
106 Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? How many Senators vote to confirm Wally Adeyemo as Dep. Treasury Sec. by 4/30? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7191/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wally-Adeyemo-as-Dep-Treasury-Sec-by-4-30 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wally Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Adeyemo be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Chuck Grassley","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat Grassley","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ashley Hinson","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Carlin","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Whitaker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.02678571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.08928571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.17857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.6517857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
107 How many Senators vote to confirm Wally Adeyemo as Dep. Treasury Sec. by 4/30? How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7191/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Wally-Adeyemo-as-Dep-Treasury-Sec-by-4-30 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Wally Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Adeyemo be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Adeyemo to the position of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources). For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.008620689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.008620689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.008620689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.008620689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.02586206896551724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.07758620689655173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.10344827586206896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.1810344827586207,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.18965517241379312,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.3879310344827587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3 or fewer","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
108 How many Senators vote to confirm David Turk as Deputy Energy Sec. by 4/30? Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7192/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-David-Turk-as-Deputy-Energy-Sec-by-4-30 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of David Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Turk be confirmed to position of Deputy Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Turk to the position of Deputy Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Ron Johnson","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Walker","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Gallagher","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kevin Nicholson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Steil","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
109 How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16? How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7193/How-many-Deputy-Secretaries-will-be-confirmed-by-April-16 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7195/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Samantha-Power-as-USAID-Administrator-by-4-30 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources). For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "59 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "84 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"3 or fewer","probability":0.04716981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5","probability":0.5188679245283019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7","probability":0.3584905660377358,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9","probability":0.04716981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"59 or fewer","probability":0.5233644859813084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 to 62","probability":0.10280373831775698,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 to 65","probability":0.046728971962616814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 68","probability":0.0747663551401869,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 to 71","probability":0.046728971962616814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"72 to 74","probability":0.046728971962616814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 to 77","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 to 80","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81 to 83","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"84 or more","probability":0.06542056074766354,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
110 Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Melanie Stansbury","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Antoinette Lopez","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Patricia Caballero","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Randi McGinn","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Victor Reyes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Georgene Louis","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Selinda Guerrero","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Francisco Fernández","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
111 Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
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data/predictit-questions.json
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data/smarkets-questions.csv
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@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005540395269990903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.017944265277433223,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.053336641032001975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.34747374514181756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07194244604316545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033076986686512856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.025800049615480027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.356404531547176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05515587529976018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0027288514016373107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.03059621268502439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005523040145082845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.017888055395268318,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05316956557579754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.34638529387519573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.07171708845107574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.0329733740004946,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.025719231720385784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.35842057538537625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05498310114582474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.0027203033550408044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.030500370950457503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.009484966328369536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009484966328369536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.1281418950962724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8622782889120744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -18,11 +18,11 @@
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.23187626092804303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.0996637525218561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10342972427706794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.06899798251513115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.0672494956287828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14942837928715536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.05850706119704102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.0707464694014795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.03739071956960323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0.030531271015467387,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04478816408876934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.4574565416285453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.23760292772186642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.30494053064958826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9493620414673044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.02621610845295055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.02262759170653907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.0000996810207336523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.93945429197371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.027683728340967922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.031069508066122273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0009958175662218678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.00009958175662218677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44574557708508844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5542544229149116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.7013516015552675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.2986483984447324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -39,27 +39,26 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.40963460593150913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.33442569228248403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2559397017860069,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5333208885570282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4666791114429718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.526335733232285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47366426676771506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.4154490460679386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.3447184737087017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.23564448580735226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.004187994416007445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4976263318915498,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5023736681084503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46331401630488167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5366859836951183,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3615614866550262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3667997006734847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05200798204040908,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08904963831379396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04614617111499127,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06235969069593415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020828136692442007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.001247193813918683,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2977354951092054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.02237706016347313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03189066059225512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06378132118451024,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029076778775291433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.03725043548170976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1594533029612756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026798874447273212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05828755192281923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08374648264772878,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04622805842154629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013399437223636606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013399437223636606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.11657510384563846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.1802162162162162,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.21199999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.1257297297297297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.024540540540540536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.01081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.03729729729729729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06356756756756755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.019675675675675672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.0721081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.06972972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05405405405405404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02702702702702702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05405405405405404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.04918918918918918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.9125556200425615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.028438769587928032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.006480944089765913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.04836525440123815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.0009673050880247632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0031921067904817184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.9351704996034894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.02914353687549564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.006641554321966694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.02478191911181602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.000991276764472641,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0032712133227597146,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13724069209167497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.862759307908325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12642213525075088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3117320469645945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5618458177846546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.1290172766115549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.31813115363180383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5528515697566413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.482994803967879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.29822075263737996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1312391749330814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.043772634230829784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.043772634230829784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.25637114142139267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.218862167982771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5247666905958364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12727939155136078,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8727206084486392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.6515410958904109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.1829337899543379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0380517503805175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.11605783866057838,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.0019025875190258753,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.009512937595129375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.02847004456180888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.10859877867634923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5289651757715794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.26621554711998674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.055042086152830495,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012708367717445122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.02845126175160811,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.0916213095827148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5461817582055087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.2660399142338776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.05500577271977568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012699983506514925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -67,9 +66,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.6037286115603984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.3669021877926279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.029369200646973695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7158225437928408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28417745620715923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6864825123411405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31351748765885934,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9083381475062584,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09166185249374158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9107025607353907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08929743926460933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5962437395659432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.14148580968280466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.07587646076794657,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.03797996661101836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.09933222036727879,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.04908180300500834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -141,5 +140,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"London Assembly: Havering & Redbridge","https://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridge","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: South West","https://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-west","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5733333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33777777777777773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08888888888888888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: West Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central","Smarkets","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election third place","https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.6265521426570815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.3734478573429185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Israeli legislative election","https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election","Smarkets","When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.23239372790718751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.3260219341974077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.17103235747303544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.2705519804223692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election third place","https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.5729042171760288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.34147174321324913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.02245176711627113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.0437937510670992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.01937852142735189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Israeli legislative election","https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election","Smarkets","When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.3207955730210923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.28847541903921725,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.1513353115727003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.23939369636699015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Liverpool City Council control","https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control","Smarkets","Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall control"",""probability"":0.1719026362334709,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.7138044302198264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.05811505095595048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.056177882590752126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Airdrie and Shotts by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8367465786664079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.10783267009608853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.055420751237503646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conservative national equivalent vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share","Smarkets","What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""34% or under"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""37%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38% or over"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Labour national equivalent vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share","Smarkets","What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""30% or under"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33%"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34% or over"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03746229444390386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009730466089325679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025591125814926532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.027050695728325382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10810547825240828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.06490220881580228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06276150627615062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.00544906101002238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0810547825240829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07482728422691447,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03892186435730271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.013914566507735718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030359054198696115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.023158509292595112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009730466089325677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2904544127663715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Gender of next Conservative leader https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson? [{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019 Smarkets [{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005540395269990903,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.017944265277433223,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.053336641032001975,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.34747374514181756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.07194244604316545,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.033076986686512856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.025800049615480027,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.356404531547176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05515587529976018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.0027288514016373107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.03059621268502439,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005523040145082845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.017888055395268318,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05316956557579754,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.34638529387519573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.07171708845107574,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.0329733740004946,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.025719231720385784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.35842057538537625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05498310114582474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.0027203033550408044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.030500370950457503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader Smarkets [{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}] 2
6 Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets [{"probability":0.009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.1281418950962724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8622782889120744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05664798777381558,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9433520122261844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 Macron first round vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request. [{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":null},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":null},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":null},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":null}] [{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.23187626092804303,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.0996637525218561,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10342972427706794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.06899798251513115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.0672494956287828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14942837928715536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.05850706119704102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.0707464694014795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0.030531271015467387,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04478816408876934,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 Gender of the next Labour leader https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first? [{"name":"Female","probability":0.5508474576271186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Male","probability":0.4491525423728813,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 First Minister to leave the Cabinet? https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go Smarkets With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? [{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.4085036637099884,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.5914963362900116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 Keir Starmer exit date https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date Smarkets When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party? [{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.4574565416285453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.23760292772186642,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.30494053064958826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 2021 London mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9493620414673044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.02621610845295055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.02262759170653907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Kurten","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Piers Corbyn","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Farah London","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0.0000996810207336523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.93945429197371,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.027683728340967922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.031069508066122273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0009958175662218678,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Kurten","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Piers Corbyn","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Farah London","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences Smarkets Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44574557708508844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5542544229149116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.7013516015552675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.2986483984447324,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7560150032019028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24398499679809715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021 Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.92151517999812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.014475044647053292,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01174922455117962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05226055080364695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp Smarkets Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4779730281977932,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.37490805067429506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08173273395995097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06538618716796077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref Smarkets [{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election? https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5333208885570282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4666791114429718,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.526335733232285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47366426676771506,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 Next general election overall majority https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority Smarkets Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.4154490460679386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.3447184737087017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.23564448580735226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.004187994416007445,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Date of next Japanese general election https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election Smarkets When will the next Japanese general election take place? [{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Belarus to have a General Election in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Joe Biden to serve full term https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term Smarkets Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4976263318915498,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5023736681084503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46331401630488167,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5366859836951183,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 2024 Democratic presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.3615614866550262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.3667997006734847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05200798204040908,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08904963831379396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04614617111499127,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06235969069593415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020828136692442007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.001247193813918683,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 2024 Republican presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.2977354951092054,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.02237706016347313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03189066059225512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06378132118451024,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.029076778775291433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.03725043548170976,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.1594533029612756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.026798874447273212,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.05828755192281923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.08374648264772878,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04622805842154629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013399437223636606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013399437223636606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.11657510384563846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 2024 US presidential winner https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner Smarkets Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.1802162162162162,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.21199999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.1257297297297297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.024540540540540536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.01081081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.03729729729729729,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06356756756756755,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.019675675675675672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.0721081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.06972972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02702702702702702,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.04918918918918918,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 2021 London mayoral election second place https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place Smarkets Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.9125556200425615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.028438769587928032,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.006480944089765913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.04836525440123815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.0009673050880247632,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0031921067904817184,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.9351704996034894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.02914353687549564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.006641554321966694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.02478191911181602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.000991276764472641,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0032712133227597146,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat Smarkets Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13724069209167497,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.862759307908325,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election Smarkets Contracts available on request. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 London Assembly: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority Smarkets Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021 Smarkets How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon? [{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.12642213525075088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.3117320469645945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5618458177846546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.1290172766115549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.31813115363180383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5528515697566413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 2021 Norwegian election: Most votes https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets) [{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.46105867870332373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.31087402544111614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1368075502667214,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.482994803967879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.29822075263737996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1312391749330814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request. [{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party Brexit Party to control any council https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council Smarkets Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party? Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"GroenLinks","probability":0.25637114142139267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)","probability":0.218862167982771,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)","probability":0.5247666905958364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 Brexit Party to control any council Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12727939155136078,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8727206084486392,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12727939155136078,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8727206084486392,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"0–2","probability":0.7598774124078522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.24012258759214777,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 Joe Biden's first international visit https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit Smarkets Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States? [{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.6515410958904109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.1829337899543379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0380517503805175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.11605783866057838,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.0019025875190258753,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.009512937595129375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 Biden approval on day 100 https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100 Smarkets What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.02847004456180888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.10859877867634923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5289651757715794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.26621554711998674,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.055042086152830495,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012708367717445122,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.02845126175160811,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.0916213095827148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5461817582055087,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.2660399142338776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.05500577271977568,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012699983506514925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post Smarkets Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary Smarkets Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3994252873563218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6005747126436781,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share Smarkets What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.32353451266042316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45.0–49.9%","probability":0.4250780437044745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50% or over","probability":0.2513874436351023,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July? https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july Smarkets Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7158225437928408,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28417745620715923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6864825123411405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31351748765885934,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 London elections: In-person voting https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting Smarkets Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only? [{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9083381475062584,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09166185249374158,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9107025607353907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08929743926460933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 $2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days Smarkets Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021 Smarkets Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5962437395659432,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.14148580968280466,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.07587646076794657,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.03797996661101836,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.09933222036727879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.04908180300500834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 Trump to create new political party https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party Smarkets Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election Smarkets [{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8558522783679142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.055197061451404746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.0708825573314802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.018068102849200837,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
140 London Assembly: West Central https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central Smarkets Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
141 2021 London mayoral election third place https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place Smarkets Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.6265521426570815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.3734478573429185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.5729042171760288,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.34147174321324913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.02245176711627113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.0437937510670992,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.01937852142735189,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
142 Year of next Israeli legislative election https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election Smarkets When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.23239372790718751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.3260219341974077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.17103235747303544,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.2705519804223692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"2021","probability":0.3207955730210923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.28847541903921725,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.1513353115727003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.23939369636699015,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
143 Liverpool City Council control https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control Smarkets Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request. [{"name":"No overall control","probability":0.1719026362334709,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.7138044302198264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.05811505095595048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.056177882590752126,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
144 Airdrie and Shotts by-election https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8367465786664079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.10783267009608853,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.055420751237503646,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
145 Conservative national equivalent vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share Smarkets What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"34% or under","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"35%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"37%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38% or over","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
146 Labour national equivalent vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share Smarkets What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"30% or under","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34% or over","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
147
148

350
data/smarkets-questions.json
View File

@ -149,27 +149,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
"probability": 0.005540395269990903,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
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{
@ -189,7 +189,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
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{
@ -224,7 +224,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
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},
{
@ -239,22 +239,22 @@
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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@ -987,189 +987,193 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"probability": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Bridget Phillipson",
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],
"description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
@ -1244,61 +1248,61 @@
"options": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
@ -1856,12 +1860,12 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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],
@ -1942,12 +1946,12 @@
"options": [
{
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},
{
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}
],
@ -2308,17 +2312,17 @@
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
@ -2328,17 +2332,17 @@
},
{
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{
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{
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}
],
@ -2409,17 +2413,17 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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],
@ -2433,27 +2437,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
@ -2484,30 +2488,6 @@
"description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
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},
{
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"probability": 0.218862167982771,
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},
{
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}
],
"description": "Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
@ -2611,32 +2591,32 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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