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About Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. Win virtual play money betting on what you know, from chess tournaments to lunar collisions to newsletter subscriber rates - or learn about the future by creating your own market!
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of future events.
Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US presidential election?"
If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning.
Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to the market's best estimate. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make better decisions!
Can prediction markets work without real money?
Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets provide real predictive power. Examples include sports betting and internal prediction markets at firms like Google.
Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to better-calibrated forecasts over time.
Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform at https://manifold.markets/stats.
Why is this important?
Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to scientific research and education.
Prediction markets can predict which research papers will replicate; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society become wiser.
How are markets resolved?
The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns a commission based on the trade volume.
This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market resolution.
What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the Metaverse in 2023?")
Who are we?
Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:
- James Grugett
- Stephen Grugett
- Austin Chen
We've previously launched consumer-facing startups (Throne, One Word), and worked at top tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna).
Talk to us!
Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us!
- Email: info@manifold.markets
- Office hours:
- Chat: Manifold Markets Discord server
Further Reading
- Above the fold, our newsletter
- Scott Alexander on play-money prediction markets