open.source/manifold
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Updating docs (#549)

Browse Source 
* update docs pass 1

* styling

* urls

* merge binary/fr market docs

* styling

* cpmm liquidity details

* liquidity disclaimer

* ahalekelly suggestions

* pool note
This commit is contained in:
Justin 2022-06-22 04:12:52 -04:00 committed by GitHub
parent 5b02485f4b
commit 402f80b420
No known key found for this signature in database
GPG Key ID: 4AEE18F83AFDEB23
7 changed files with 364 additions and 299 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

7
docs/docs/$how-to.md
View File

@ -8,9 +8,10 @@ Mana (M$) is our virtual play currency that cannot be converted to real money.
- **Its Value**
You can redeem your Mana and we will [donate to a charity](http://manifold.markets/charity) on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1. You will be able to redeem it for merch and other cool items soon too!
You can redeem your Mana and we will [donate to a charity](https://manifold.markets/charity) on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1. You will be able to redeem it for merch and other cool items soon too!
- **It sets us apart**
Using play-money sets us apart from other similar sites as we don’t want our users to solely focus on monetary gains. Instead we prioritize providing value in the form of an enjoyable experience and facilitating a more informed world through the power of prediction markets.
## How probabilities work
@ -32,6 +33,7 @@ There are currently 3 types of markets: Yes/No (binary), Free response, and Nume
The creator asks an open ended question. Both the creator and users can propose answers which can be bet on. Don’t be intimidated to add new answers! The payout system and initial liquidity rewards users who bet on new answers early. The algorithm used to determine the probability and payout is complicated but if you want to learn more check out [DPM](https://www.notion.so/DPM-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5).
- **Numerical**
Retracted whilst we make improvements. You still may see some old ones floating around though. Questions which can be answered by a number within a given range. Betting on a value will cause you to buy shares from ‘buckets’ surrounding the number you choose.
## Compete and build your portfolio
@ -53,6 +55,7 @@ To the moon 🚀
Similar to a stock market, probabilities can be overvalued and undervalued. If you bet (buy shares) at one end of the spectrum and subsequently other users buy even more shares of that same type, the value of your own shares will increase. Sometimes it will be most profitable to wait for the market to resolve but often it can be wise to sell your shares and take the immediate profits. This can also be a great way to free up Mana if you are lacking funds.
- **Create innovative answers**
Certain free response markets provide room for creativity! The answers themselves can often affect the outcome based on how compelling they are.
More questions? Check out **[this community-driven FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/)**!
More questions? Check out **[this community-driven FAQ](https://docs.manifold.markets/faq)**!

4
docs/docs/about.md
View File

@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets provide re
Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to better-calibrated forecasts over time.
Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform at **[http://manifold.markets/analytics](http://manifold.markets/analytics)**.
Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform at **[https://manifold.markets/stats](https://manifold.markets/stats)**.
### **Why is this important?**
@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:
- Stephen Grugett
- Austin Chen
We've previously launched consumer-facing startups (**[Throne](https://throne.live/)**, **[One Word](http://oneword.games/platform)**), and worked at top tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna).
We've previously launched consumer-facing startups (**[Throne](https://throne.live/)**, **[One Word](https://oneword.games/platform)**), and worked at top tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna).
## **Talk to us!**

461
docs/docs/api.md
View File

@ -56,24 +56,33 @@ Requires no authorization.
```json
[
{
"id":"FKtYX3t8ZfIp5gytJWAI",
"creatorUsername":"JamesGrugett",
"creatorName":"James Grugett",
"createdTime":1645139406452,
"closeTime":1647406740000,
"question":"What will be the best assessment of the Free response feature on March 15th?",
"description":"Hey guys, let's try this out!\nWe will see how people use the new Free response market type over the next month. Then I will pick the answer that I think best describes the consensus view of this feature on March 15th. Cheers.",
"id":"EvIhzcJXwhL0HavaszD7",
"creatorUsername":"Austin",
"creatorName":"Austin",
"createdTime":1653850472294,
"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c",
"closeTime":1653893940000,
"question":"Will I write a new blog post today?",
"description":"I'm supposed to, or else Beeminder charges me $90.\nTentative topic ideas:\n- \"Manifold funding, a history\"\n- \"Markets and bounties allow trades through time\"\n- \"equity vs money vs time\"\n\nClose date updated to 2022-05-29 11:59 pm",
"tags":[
"ManifoldMarkets"
],
"url":"https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-will-be-the-best-assessment-of",
"pool":null,
"probability":0,
"volume7Days":100,
"volume24Hours":100,
"isResolved":false,
...
}
"personal",
"commitments"
],
"url":"https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-i-write-a-new-blog-post-today",
"pool":146.73022894879944,
"probability":0.8958175225896258,
"p":0.08281474972181882,
"totalLiquidity":102.65696071594805,
"outcomeType":"BINARY",
"mechanism":"cpmm-1",
"volume":241,
"volume7Days":0,
"volume24Hours":0,
"isResolved":true,
"resolution":"YES",
"resolutionTime":1653924077078
},
...
```
- Response type: Array of `LiteMarket`
@ -86,20 +95,35 @@ Requires no authorization.
// Attributes about the creator
creatorUsername: string
creatorName: string
createdTime: number
createdTime: number // milliseconds since epoch
creatorAvatarUrl?: string
// Market attributes. All times are in milliseconds since epoch
closeTime?: number // Min of creator's chosen date, and resolutionTime
question: string
description: string
// A list of tags on each market. Any user can add tags to any market.
// This list also includes the predefined categories shown as filters on the home page.
tags: string[]
// Note: This url always points to https://manifold.markets, regardless of what instance the api is running on.
// This url includes the creator's username, but this doesn't need to be correct when constructing valid URLs.
// i.e. https://manifold.markets/Austin/test-market is the same as https://manifold.markets/foo/test-market
url: string
pool: number
outcomeType: string // BINARY, FREE_RESPONSE, or NUMERIC
mechanism: string // dpm-2 or cpmm-1
pool: number // sum of YES and NO shares in liquidity pool for CPMM, null for DPM
probability: number
p?: number // probability constant in y^p * n^(1-p) = k
totalLiquidity?: number
volume: number
volume7Days: number
volume24Hours: number
isResolved: boolean
resolutionTime?: number
resolution?: string
@ -108,7 +132,7 @@ Requires no authorization.
### `GET /v0/market/[marketId]`
Gets information about a single market by ID.
Gets information about a single market by ID. Includes comments, bets, and answers.
Requires no authorization.
@ -122,227 +146,202 @@ Requires no authorization.
```json
{
"id": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"creatorUsername": "Austin",
"creatorName": "Austin Chen",
"createdTime": 1644103005345,
"closeTime": 1667894340000,
"question": "Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th District?",
"description": "The Effective Altruism movement usually stays out of politics, but here is a recent, highly-upvoted endorsement of donating to Carrick Flynn as a high-impact area: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qi9nnrmjwNbBqWbNT/the-best-usd5-800-i-ve-ever-donated-to-pandemic-prevention\nFurther reading: https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_6th_Congressional_District_election,_2022\n\n#EffectiveAltruism #Politics",
"tags": ["EffectiveAltruism", "Politics"],
"url": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-carrick-flynn-win-the-general",
"pool": 400.0916328426886,
"probability": 0.34455568984059187,
"volume7Days": 326.9083671573114,
"volume24Hours": 0,
"isResolved": false,
"bets": [
"id":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"creatorUsername":"Angela",
"creatorName":"Angela",
"createdTime":1655258914863,
"creatorAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAngela%2F50463444807_edfd4598d6_o.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef44e13b-2e6c-4498-b9c4-8e38bdaf1476",
"closeTime":1655265001448,
"question":"What is good?",
"description":"Resolves proportionally to the answer(s) which I find most compelling. (Obviously I’ll refrain from giving my own answers)\n\n(Please have at it with philosophy, ethics, etc etc)\n\n\nContract resolved automatically.",
"tags":[],
"url":"https://manifold.markets/Angela/what-is-good",
"pool":null,
"outcomeType":"FREE_RESPONSE",
"mechanism":"dpm-2",
"volume":112,
"volume7Days":212,
"volume24Hours":0,
"isResolved":true,
"resolution":"MKT",
"resolutionTime":1655265001448,
"answers":[
{
"createdTime": 1644103005345,
"isAnte": true,
"shares": 83.66600265340756,
"userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2",
"amount": 70,
"probAfter": 0.3,
"probBefore": 0.3,
"id": "E1MjiVYBM0GkqRXhv5cR",
"outcome": "NO",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR"
"createdTime":1655258941573,
"avatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAngela%2F50463444807_edfd4598d6_o.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef44e13b-2e6c-4498-b9c4-8e38bdaf1476",
"id":"1",
"username":"Angela",
"number":1,
"name":"Angela",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"text":"ANTE",
"userId":"qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2",
"probability":0.66749733001068
},
{
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"probAfter": 0.3,
"shares": 54.77225575051661,
"userId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2",
"isAnte": true,
"createdTime": 1644103005345,
"id": "jn3iIGwD5f0vxOHxo62o",
"amount": 30,
"probBefore": 0.3,
"outcome": "YES"
"name":"Isaac King",
"username":"IsaacKing",
"text":"This answer",
"userId":"y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2",
"id":"2",
"number":2,
"avatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhNVriOvxK2VUAmE-jvYZwC-XIymatzVirT0Bqb2g=s96-c",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"createdTime":1655261198074,
"probability":0.008922214311142757
},
{
"shares": 11.832723364874056,
"probAfter": 0.272108843537415,
"userId": "PkBnU8cAZiOLa0fjxiUzMKsFMYZ2",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"outcome": "NO",
"amount": 10,
"id": "f6sHBab6lbGw9PsnVXdc",
"probBefore": 0.3,
"createdTime": 1644203305863
"createdTime":1655263226587,
"userId":"jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03",
"id":"3",
"avatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMartin%2Fgiphy.gif?alt=media&token=422ef610-553f-47e3-bf6f-c0c5cc16c70a",
"text":"Toyota Camry",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"name":"Undox",
"username":"Undox",
"number":3,
"probability":0.008966714133143469
},
{
"userId": "BTksWMdCeHfDitWVaAZdjLSdu3o1",
"amount": 10,
"id": "Vfui2KOQwy7gkRPP7xc6",
"shares": 18.12694184700382,
"outcome": "YES",
"createdTime": 1644212358699,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"probBefore": 0.272108843537415,
"probAfter": 0.3367768595041322
},
{
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"probAfter": 0.3659259259259259,
"userId": "BTksWMdCeHfDitWVaAZdjLSdu3o1",
"probBefore": 0.3367768595041322,
"amount": 5,
"outcome": "YES",
"createdTime": 1644433184238,
"id": "eGI1VwAWF822LkcmOUot",
"shares": 8.435122540124937
},
{
"userId": "NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2",
"shares": 59.79133423528123,
"amount": 50,
"probAfter": 0.24495867768595042,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"createdTime": 1644693685223,
"probBefore": 0.3659259259259259,
"id": "fbU0DbmDWMnubggpQotw",
"outcome": "NO"
},
{
"amount": 25,
"userId": "iXw2OSyhs0c4QW2fAfK3yqmaYDv1",
"probAfter": 0.20583333333333328,
"outcome": "NO",
"shares": 28.3920247989266,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"createdTime": 1644695698202,
"id": "k9hyljJD3MMXK2OYxTsR",
"probBefore": 0.24495867768595042
},
{
"createdTime": 1644716782308,
"shares": 11.17480183821209,
"probBefore": 0.20583333333333328,
"userId": "clvYFhVDzccYu20OUc5NBKJyDxj2",
"probAfter": 0.1927679500520291,
"id": "yYkZ4JpLgZHrRQUugpCD",
"outcome": "NO",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"amount": 10
},
{
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"outcome": "YES",
"amount": 30,
"id": "IU2Hb1DesgKIN140BkhE",
"shares": 58.893424111838016,
"createdTime": 1644736846538,
"probBefore": 0.1927679500520291,
"userId": "BTksWMdCeHfDitWVaAZdjLSdu3o1",
"probAfter": 0.3289359861591695
},
{
"isSold": true,
"userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2",
"createdTime": 1644751343436,
"outcome": "NO",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"amount": 25,
"probBefore": 0.3289359861591695,
"id": "fkCxVH7THaDbEhyJjXVk",
"probAfter": 0.2854194032651529,
"shares": 30.022082866721178
},
{
"probAfter": 0.2838618650900295,
"id": "Ao05LRRMXVWw8d7LtwhL",
"outcome": "NO",
"probBefore": 0.2854194032651529,
"shares": 1.1823269994736165,
"userId": "pUF3dMs9oLNpgU2LYtFmodaoDow1",
"amount": 1,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"createdTime": 1644768321860
},
{
"id": "LJ8H8DTuK7CH9vN3u0Sd",
"createdTime": 1644771352663,
"shares": 113.5114039238785,
"probAfter": 0.17510453314667793,
"outcome": "NO",
"amount": 100,
"probBefore": 0.2838618650900295,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"userId": "ebX5nzwrs8V0M5UynWvbtcj7KAI2"
},
{
"outcome": "YES",
"amount": 20,
"probBefore": 0.17510453314667793,
"id": "TECEF9I5FqTqt6uTIsJX",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"createdTime": 1644805061501,
"shares": 43.88281646028875,
"userId": "lHxg3179e4amWm5LJhJoJrcWK482",
"probAfter": 0.24160019644701852
},
{
"amount": -25.908367157311375,
"id": "G3u2EzETWOyrGo15wtiQ",
"outcome": "NO",
"createdTime": 1644847494264,
"sale": {
"betId": "fkCxVH7THaDbEhyJjXVk",
"amount": 25.862948799445807
},
"probAfter": 0.26957595409437557,
"shares": -30.022082866721178,
"probBefore": 0.24160019644701852,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"userId": "5zeWhzi9nlNNf5C9TVjshAN7QOd2"
},
{
"createdTime": 1644853733891,
"userId": "lbTXACtCnIacKDloKfXxYkDn0zM2",
"amount": 10,
"id": "z443uCkbYRLZW9QdXu1u",
"probAfter": 0.25822886066938844,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"outcome": "NO",
"shares": 11.655141043149968,
"probBefore": 0.26957595409437557
},
{
"userId": "BTksWMdCeHfDitWVaAZdjLSdu3o1",
"amount": 15,
"shares": 28.311399392675895,
"id": "axoryV664uzHZ0jzWSXR",
"outcome": "YES",
"probBefore": 0.25822886066938844,
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"createdTime": 1644863335939,
"probAfter": 0.3033936853512369
},
{
"createdTime": 1644987330420,
"id": "jHAYDdZRkDw3lFoDXdmm",
"shares": 26.353902809992064,
"userId": "BTksWMdCeHfDitWVaAZdjLSdu3o1",
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"probAfter": 0.34455568984059187,
"probBefore": 0.3033936853512369,
"amount": 15,
"outcome": "YES"
"number":4,
"name":"James Grugett",
"userId":"5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2",
"text":"Utility (Defined by your personal utility function.)",
"createdTime":1655264793224,
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"username":"JamesGrugett",
"id":"4",
"avatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjC83uMe-fEfzd6QvxiK6ZqZdlMytuHxevgMYIkpAI=s96-c",
"probability":0.09211463154147384
}
],
"comments": [
"comments":[
{
"contractId": "3zspH9sSzMlbFQLn9GKR",
"userUsername": "Celer",
"userAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwp0vAolZgOmT7GbzFq7mOf8lr0BFEB_LqWWfZk=s96-c",
"userId": "NHA7Gv9nNpb7b60GpLD3oFkBvPa2",
"text": "It's a D+3 district, and the person we're pushing is functionally an outsider. I maxed my donation, but 25%, what I bought down to, implying even odds on both the general and the primary, seems if anything optimistic.",
"createdTime": 1644693740967,
"id": "fbU0DbmDWMnubggpQotw",
"betId": "fbU0DbmDWMnubggpQotw",
"userName": "Celer"
"id":"ZdHIyfQazHyl8nI0ENS7",
"userId":"qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2",
"createdTime":1655265807433,
"text":"ok what\ni did not resolve this intentionally",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"userName":"Angela",
"userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAngela%2F50463444807_edfd4598d6_o.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef44e13b-2e6c-4498-b9c4-8e38bdaf1476",
"userUsername":"Angela"
},
{
"userName":"James Grugett",
"userUsername":"JamesGrugett",
"id":"F7fvHGhTiFal8uTsUc9P",
"userAvatarUrl":"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjC83uMe-fEfzd6QvxiK6ZqZdlMytuHxevgMYIkpAI=s96-c","replyToCommentId":"ZdHIyfQazHyl8nI0ENS7",
"text":"@Angela Sorry! There was an error that automatically resolved several markets that were created in the last few hours.",
"createdTime":1655266286514,
"userId":"5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK"
},
{
"userId":"qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"id":"PIHhXy5hLHSgW8uoUD0Q",
"userName":"Angela",
"text":"lmk if anyone lost manna from this situation and i'll try to fix it",
"userUsername":"Angela",
"createdTime":1655277581308,
"userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAngela%2F50463444807_edfd4598d6_o.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef44e13b-2e6c-4498-b9c4-8e38bdaf1476"
},{
"userAvatarUrl":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAngela%2F50463444807_edfd4598d6_o.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef44e13b-2e6c-4498-b9c4-8e38bdaf1476",
"userName":"Angela",
"text":"from my end it looks like no one did",
"replyToCommentId":"PIHhXy5hLHSgW8uoUD0Q",
"createdTime":1655287149528,
"userUsername":"Angela",
"id":"5slnWEQWwm6dHjDi6oiH",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"userId":"qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2"
}
],
"bets":[
{
"outcome":"0",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"fees":{
"liquidityFee":0,
"creatorFee":0,
"platformFee":0
},
"isAnte":true,
"shares":100,
"probAfter":1,
"amount":100,
"userId":"IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2",
"createdTime":1655258914863,
"probBefore":0,
"id":"2jNZqnwoEQL7WDTTAWDP"
},
{
"shares":173.20508075688772,
"fees":{
"platformFee":0,
"liquidityFee":0,
"creatorFee":0
},
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"probBefore":0,
"createdTime":1655258941573,
"loanAmount":0,
"userId":"qe2QqIlOkeWsbljfeF3MsxpSJ9i2",
"amount":100,
"outcome":"1",
"probAfter":0.75,
"id":"xuc3JoiNkE8lXPh15mUb"
},
{
"userId":"y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"loanAmount":0,
"probAfter":0.009925496893641248,
"id":"8TBlzPtOdO0q5BgSyRbi",
"createdTime":1655261198074,
"shares":20.024984394500787,
"amount":1,
"outcome":"2",
"probBefore":0,
"fees":{
"liquidityFee":0,
"creatorFee":0,
"platformFee":0
}
},
{
"probAfter":0.00987648269777473,
"outcome":"3",
"id":"9vdwes6s9QxbYZUBhHs4",
"createdTime":1655263226587,
"shares":20.074859899884732,
"amount":1,
"loanAmount":0,
"fees":{
"liquidityFee":0,
"platformFee":0,
"creatorFee":0
},
"userId":"jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"probBefore":0
},
{
"createdTime":1655264793224,
"fees":{
"creatorFee":0,
"liquidityFee":0,
"platformFee":0
},
"probAfter":0.09211463154147384,
"amount":10,
"id":"BehiSGgk1wAkIWz1a8L4",
"userId":"5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2",
"contractId":"lEoqtnDgJzft6apSKzYK",
"loanAmount":0,
"probBefore":0,
"outcome":"4",
"shares":64.34283176858165
}
]
}

53
docs/docs/binary-markets.md
View File

@ -1,53 +0,0 @@
# Guide to YES/NO markets
# Overview
Historically, Manifold used a special type of automated market marker based on a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting
system. Free response and numeric markets still use this system. Binary markets created prior to March 15, 2022 used
this system.
Binary markets created after March 15 use a constant-function market maker which holds constant the weighted geometric
mean, with weights equal to the probabilities chosen by the market creator at creation. This design was inspired by
Uniswap's CPMM and a suggestion from Manifold user Pepe.
# Basic facts
- Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.
- Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO and receive shares in the outcome in return.
- 1 YES share = M$1 if the event happens. 1 NO share = M$1 if the event does not happen.
- Notice that 1 YES share + 1 NO share = M$1. If you ever get multiple YES and NO shares, they will cancel out and you will be left with cash.
- When the market is resolved, you will be paid out according to your shares. If you own 100 YES shares, if the event resolves YES, you will earn M$100. (If the event resolves NO, you will earn M$0).
- The creator of each market is responsible for resolving each market YES or NO.
- Creators can also resolve N/A to cancel all transactions and return the money, or resolve to a particular probability (say 50%).
# Betting
- Betting on YES will increase the market’s implied probability; betting on NO will decrease the probability.
- Manifold's automated market automatically adjusts the market probability after each trade and determines how many shares a user will get for their bet.
- You can sell back your shares for cash. If you sell YES shares, the market probability will go down. If you sell NO shares, the probability will go up.
- Manifold charges fees on each trade. They are baked into the number of shares you receive.
- If you place a M$100 bet on YES when the probability is 50%, you may end up with 150 YES shares. These shares already include our fees. Notice also that when you buy, the probability goes up, so you are not getting in exactly at 200 shares or 50%.
- Our fee schedule is currently: 13% _ (1 - post-bet probability) _ bet amount
- The post-trade probability is what the market probability would be after your bet if there were no fees.
- Example:
- If you bet M$100 on NO and the resulting probability without fees would be 10%, then you pay M$100 _ 13% _ 10% = M$1.3.
- If you bet M$100 on YES and the resulting probability without fees would be 90%, then you pay `M$100 * 13% * 10% = M$1.3`.
- The fees are used to provide a commission to the market creator and to subsidize trading within the market.
- 6% goes to the market creator, 6% to liquidity providers, and 1% is burnt to prevent inflation
- The market creator’s commission is paid out only after the market is resolved.
- No fees are levied on sales.
# Market creation
- Users can create a market on any question they want.
- When you create a market, you must choose a close date (after which trading will halt).
- You must also pay a M$100 market creation fee, which is used to subsidize trading on your market.
- You will earn a commission on all bets placed in your market.
- You are responsible for resolving your market in a timely manner. All the fees you earned as a commission will be paid out after resolution.
# Liquidity
- The liquidity in a market is the amount of capital available for traders to trade against.
- The more liquidity, the greater incentive there is for traders to bet, the more accurate the market will be.
- You can add liquidity to a market you are interested in to increase the incentives for traders to participate. You can think of added liquidity as a subsidy for getting your question answered.
- You can add liquidity to any market by opening up the market info popup window located in the (...) section of the header on the market page.

2
docs/docs/bounties.md
View File

@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ _🌿 Announced on 2022-05-02_
**[Isaac King](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing): M$5,000**
- For [compiling an FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/) that answers a variety of questions that new users commonly face, and also inspiring us to move to [this open-source docs platform](http://docs.manifold.markets/).
- For [compiling an FAQ](https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/) that answers a variety of questions that new users commonly face, and also inspiring us to move to [this open-source docs platform](https://docs.manifold.markets/).
**[Blazer](https://manifold.markets/BlazingDarkness/was-it-an-unpleasant-surprise-when): M$2,500**

26
docs/docs/faq.md
View File

@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
### Do I have to pay real money in order to participate?
Nope! Each account starts with a free M$ 1000. If you invest it wisely, you can increase your total without ever needing to put any real money into the site.
Nope! Each account starts with a free M$1000. If you invest it wisely, you can increase your total without ever needing to put any real money into the site.
### What is the name for the currency Manifold uses, represented by M$?
@ -14,9 +14,11 @@ Manifold Dollars, or mana for short.
No. Gambling laws put many restrictions on real-money prediction markets, so Manifold uses play money instead.
You can instead redeem your Mana and we will [donate to a charity](http://manifold.markets/charity) on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1.
### How do the free response markets work?
Any user can enter a response and bet on it, or they can bet on on other people's responses. The response probabilities are weighted proportionally to how many people have bet on them. The market creator's ante goes into a "none of the above" pseudo-option that can't be bet on and can't be chosen as a correct answer when the market is resolved. (This means that free response markets tend to lose their creator almost their entire ante, whereas normal markets only lose them a small fraction that's proportional to how well they chose their starting odds. It also means that if there are only a finite number of options that could win, traders can make guaranteed money by investing in them all equally.) See [here](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/above-the-fold-milestones-and-new) for more information.
Any user can enter a response and bet on it, or they can bet on other people's responses. The response probabilities are weighted proportionally to how many people have bet on them. The market creator's ante goes into a "none of the above" pseudo-option that can't be bet on and can't be chosen as a correct answer when the market is resolved. (This means that free response markets tend to lose their creator almost their entire ante. It also means that if there are only a finite number of options that could win, traders can make guaranteed money by investing in them all equally.) See [here](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/p/above-the-fold-milestones-and-new) for more information.
### How accurate are the market probabilities?
@ -35,9 +37,9 @@ No. See [here](https://manifold.markets/hamnox/will-manifold-markets-add-nongoo
## Placing and winning bets
### The payout probabilities I'm shown sometimes aren't right. For example if a market is at 15% and I bet M$ 1 on "no", it tells me that I'll make a 42% profit if I win, but the listed payout is just M$ 1. What's going on?
### The payout probabilities I'm shown sometimes aren't right. For example if a market is at 15% and I bet M$1 on "no", it tells me that I'll make a 42% profit if I win, but the listed payout is just M$1. What's going on?
Payout amounts are visually rounded to the nearest M$ 1, and only integer amounts can be put into markets. Behind the scenes however, your balance does track fractional amounts, so you're making a M$ 0.42 profit on that bet. Once you win another M$ 0.08, that fractional M$ 0.5 will display as an extra M$ 1 in your account. (There's no way to view your exact balance, you can only see the rounded value.)
Payout amounts are visually rounded to the nearest M$1, and only integer amounts can be put into markets. Behind the scenes however, your balance does track fractional amounts, so you're making a M$0.42 profit on that bet. Once you win another M$0.08, that fractional M$0.5 will display as an extra M$1 in your account. (There's no way to view your exact balance, you can only see the rounded value.)
### What are the rules about insider trading? (Using private information about a market to make a profit.)
@ -45,7 +47,7 @@ It's not only allowed, but encouraged. The whole point of a prediction market is
### Can I see who is buying/selling in a market?
Trading is anonymous by default. You'll only see their username if they leave a comment. As an exception, trading from the market's creator has their name attached.
All trades before June 1, 2022 are anonymous by default. Trades after that date can be viewed in the Bets tab of any market, and also on that user's profile.
## Creating and resolving markets
@ -63,12 +65,14 @@ A market being "closed" means that people can no longer place or sell bets, "loc
### What does "PROB" mean?
Resolving a market as "PROB" means that it's resolved at a certain probability, chosen by the market creator. PROB 100% is the same as "yes", and PROB 0% is the same as "no". For example, if a market is resolved at PROB 75%, anyone who bought "yes" at less than 75% will (usually) make a profit, and anyone who bought "yes" at greater than 75% will (usually) take a loss. Vice versa for "no".
Resolving a market as "PROB" means that it's resolved at a certain probability, chosen by the market creator. PROB 100% is the same as "yes", and PROB 0% is the same as "no". For example, if a market is resolved at PROB 75%, anyone who bought "yes" at less than 75% will (usually) make a profit, and anyone who bought "yes" at greater than 75% will (usually) take a loss. Vice versa for "no". This is also shown as "MKT" in the interface and API.
### What happens if a market creator resolves a market incorrectly, or doesn't resolve it at all?
Nothing. The idea is for Manifold Markets to function with similar freedom and versatility to a Twitter poll, but with more accurate results due to the dynamics of prediction markets. Individual market resolution is not enforced by the site, so if you don't trust a certain user to judge their markets fairly, you probably shouldn't participate in their markets.
That being said, manifold staff may manually send reminder emails to the creators of large markets if they have not been resolved in some time. There are also some projects in the works to enable automated market resolution after some time has passed.
### How do I tell if a certain market creator is trustworthy?
Look at their market resolution history on their profile page. If their past markets have all been resolved correctly, their future ones probably will be too. You can also look at the comments on those markets to see if any traders noticed anything suspicious. You can also ask about that person in the [Manifold Markets Discord](https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh). And if their profile links to their website or social media pages, you can take that into account too.
@ -87,15 +91,15 @@ You'll get an automated email when they close. You can also go to your profile p
### When do market creators get their commission fees?
When the creator resolves their market, they get the commission from all the trades that were exectuted in the market.
When the creator resolves their market, they get the commission from all the trades that were executed in the market.
### How do I see markets that are currently open?
You can see the top 99 markets in various categories [here](https://manifold.markets/markets).
You can see the top markets in various categories [here](https://manifold.markets/markets).
### Can I bet in a market I created?
Yes. However if you're doing things that the community would perceive as "shady", such as put all your money on the correct resolution immediately before closing the market, people may be more reluctant to participate in your markets in the future. Betting "normally" in your own market is fine though.
Yes. However if you're doing things that the community would perceive as "shady", such as putting all your money on the correct resolution immediately before closing the market, people may be more reluctant to participate in your markets in the future. Betting "normally" in your own market is fine though.
## Miscellaneous
@ -103,6 +107,8 @@ Yes. However if you're doing things that the community would perceive as "shady"
Contact them via [email](mailto:info@manifold.markets), post in their [Discord](https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh), or create a market about that bug/feature in order to draw more attention to it and get community input.
If you don't mind putting in a little work, fork the code and open a [pull request](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pulls) on GitHub.
### How can I get notified of new developments?
Being a very recent project, Manifold is adding new features and tweaking existing ones quite frequently. You can keep up with changes by subscribing to their [Substack](https://manifoldmarkets.substack.com/), or joining their [Discord server](https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh).
@ -113,7 +119,7 @@ No, but the website is designed responsively and looks great on mobile.
### Does Manifold have an API for programmers?
Yep. Documentation is [here](https://www.notion.so/Manifold-Markets-API-5e7d0aef4dcf452bb04b319e178fabc5).
Yep. Documentation is [here](https://docs.manifold.markets/api).
### If I have a question that isn't answered here, where can I ask it?

110
docs/docs/market-details.md Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
# Guide to Market Types
# Market Mechanisms
Historically, Manifold used a special type of automated market maker based on a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting
system. Free response and numeric markets still use this system. Binary markets created prior to March 15, 2022 used
this system, but all of those markets have since closed.
Binary markets created after March 15 use a constant-function market maker which holds constant the weighted geometric
mean, with weights equal to the probabilities chosen by the market creator at creation. This design was inspired by
Uniswap's CPMM and a suggestion from Manifold user Pepe. The benefit of this approach is that the payout for any bet
is fixed at purchase time - 100 shares of YES will always return M$100 if YES is chosen.
Free response markets (and the depreciated numeric markets) still use the DPM system, as they have discrete "buckets"
for the pool to be sorted into.
## Market Creation
- Users can create a market on any question they want.
- When a user creates a market, they must choose a close date, after which trading will halt.
- They must also pay a M$100 market creation fee, which is used as liquidity to subsidize trading on the market.
- The creation fee for the first market created each day is provided by Manifold.
- The market creator will earn a commission on all bets placed in the market.
- The market creator is responsible for resolving each market in a timely manner. All fees earned as a commission will be paid out after resolution.
- Creators can also resolve N/A to cancel all transactions and reverse all transactions made on the market - this includes profits from selling shares.
# Binary Markets
## Binary Markets: Overview
- Binary markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome, such as:
- [Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 on Jan 1, 2022 at 12 am ET?](https://manifold.markets/SG/will-bitcoin-be-worth-more-than-600)
- [Will Manifold Markets have over $1M in revenue by Jan 1st, 2023?](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-mantic-markets-have-over-1m)
- [Will we discover life on Mars before 2024?](https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-we-discover-life-on-mars-befor)
- Some binary markets are used as quasi-numeric markets, such as:
- [How many additional subscribers will my newsletter have by the end of February?](https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/how-many-additional-subscribers-wil)
- [How many new signups will Manifold have at the end of launch day?](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/how-many-new-signups-will-manifold)
- [What day will US Covid deaths peak in February?](https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/what-day-will-us-covid-deaths-peak)
- These markets are made possible by the MKT option described below.
## Binary Markets: Betting & Payouts
- Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO and receive shares in the outcome in return.
- Betting on YES will increase the market’s implied probability; betting on NO will decrease the probability.
- Manifold's automated market automatically adjusts the market probability after each trade and determines how many shares a user will get for their bet.
- You can sell back your shares for cash. If you sell YES shares, the market probability will go down. If you sell NO shares, the probability will go up.
- 1 YES share = M$1 if the event happens. 1 NO share = M$1 if the event does not happen.
- Notice that 1 YES share + 1 NO share = M$1. If you ever get multiple YES and NO shares, they will cancel out and you will be left with cash.
- When the market is resolved, you will be paid out according to your shares. If you own 100 YES shares, if the event resolves YES, you will earn M$100. (If the event resolves NO, you will earn M$0).
- The creator of each market is responsible for resolving each market. They can resolve to YES, NO, MKT, or N/A.
- Resolving to MKT allows the creator to choose a percentage. The payout for any YES share is multiplied by this percentage, and vice versa for NO.
- For example, if a market resolves to MKT at 30%, if you have 100 shares of YES you will receive `M$100 * 30% = M$30`.
- In the same situation as above, if you have 100 shares of NO you will receive `M$100 * (100% - 30%) = M$70`.
- Note that even in this instance, 1 YES share plus 1 NO share still equals M$1.
## Binary Markets: Liquidity
- The liquidity in a market is the amount of capital available for traders to trade against. The more liquidity, the greater incentive there is for traders to bet, and the more accurate the market should be.
- When a market is created, the creation fee (also called the ante or subsidy) is used to fill the liquiity pool. This happens whether the creation fee is paid by the user or by Manifold for the daily free market.
- Behind the scenes, when a bet is placed the CPMM mechanism does [a bunch of math](http://bit.ly/maniswap). The end result is that for each M$1 bet, 1 YES share and 1 NO share is created. Some amount of shares are then given to the user who made the bet, and the rest are stored in the liquidity pool.
Due to this mechansim, the number of YES shares in the whole market always equals the number of NO shares.
- You can manually add liquidity to any market to increase the incentives for traders to participate. You can think of added liquidity as a subsidy for getting your question answered. You can do this by opening up the market info popup window located in the (...) section of the header on the market page.
- Adding liquidity provides you with a number of YES and NO shares, which can be withdrawn from the same interface. These shares resolve to M$ like normal when the market resolves, which will return you some amount of your investment.
- If the market moves significantly in either direction, your liquidity will become significantly less valuable. You are currently very unlikely to make money by investing liquidity in a market, it is a way to subsidize a market and encourage more people to bet, to achieve a more accurate answer.
- Adding liquidity to a market also makes it require more capital to move the market, so if you want to subsidize a market, first make sure the market price is roughly where you think it should be.
# Free-Response Markets
## Free-Response Markets: Overview
- Free-response markets are structured around a question with a multiple outcomes, such as:
- [Which team will win the NBA Finals 2022?](https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/which-team-will-win-the-nba-finals)
- [Who will win "Top Streaming Songs Artist" at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards?](https://manifold.markets/Predictor/who-will-win-top-streaming-songs-ar)
- [What life improvement intervention suggested would I found most useful?](https://manifold.markets/vlad/what-life-improvement-intervention)
- Some free-response markets are used as quasi-numeric markets, such as:
- [What day will Russia invade Ukraine?](https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine)
- [What will inflation be in March?](https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/what-will-inflation-be-in-march)
- [How many Manifold team members in the Bahamas will test positive for COVID?](https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/how-many-manifold-team-members-in-t)
## Free-Response Markets: Betting & Payouts
- Markets are structured around a list of answers, any of which can be bet on.
- When a Free Response market is created, the market creation fee goes into a hidden answer called the Ante and gets paid to the winner(s), to subsidize the market and create an incentive to bet. This happens whether the creation fee is paid by the user or by Manifold for the daily free market.
- This hidden answer is why a market's probabilities will not add up to 100%.
- If you want to further subsidize a market, it's customary to create an ANTE answer and put money in that.
- Anyone can add answers to a market as long as they stake some amount of M$ on it. Traders can place a bet on any answer and receive shares in the outcome in return.
- When a user places a bet, their M$ goes into the market's pool and they receive a certain amount of shares of the selected answer.
- When the market is resolved, you will be paid out according to your shares. If the creator resolves to answer #1, the entire pool is divided up amongst the users who bet on answer #1 proportional to their shares.
- The creator of each market is responsible for resolving each market. They can resolve to any single answer, or even multiple answers.
- Resolving to multiple answers allows the creator to choose a percentage for each selected answer (or distribute equally). The payout for any answer is taken from the amount of the total pool allocated to that answer.
- For example, let's take a free-response market with many answers. The pool for this market is $500, and you own 100 out of 500 total shares of answer #1.
- If the creator resolves to answer #1 only, you will receive `M$500 * (100 / 500) = M$100`.
- If the creator resolves 50% to answer #1 and 50% to answer #2, you will receive `(M$500 * 50%) * (100 / 500) = M$50`.
- Note that your payout is dependent on the total number of shares, and thus may decrease if more people buy shares in that answer.
# Fees
- Manifold charges fees on each trade. They are automatically calculated and baked into the number of shares you receive when you place a bet.
- Our CPMM fee schedule is currently: `10% * (1 - post-bet probability) * bet amount`
- Note that all current binary markets use this fee schedule.
- The post-bet probability is what the market probability would be after your bet if there were no fees.
- Example:
- If you bet M$100 on NO and the resulting probability without fees would be 10%, then you pay `M$100 * 10% * 10% = M$1.0`.
- If you bet M$100 on YES and the resulting probability without fees would be 50%, then you pay `M$100 * 10% * 50% = M$5.0`.
- 100% of this fee is used to provide a commission to the market creator, which is paid out after the market is resolved.
- Our DPM fee schedule is currently: `5% * (1 - post-bet probability) * bet amount`
- Note that all free-response markets use this fee schedule. The calculation for this is the same as above.
- 4% is used to provide a commission to the market creator, which is paid out after the market is resolved. 1% is "burnt" to prevent inflation.
- No fees are levied on sales. If you have existing shares in a binary market and buy shares on the opposite side, that is equivalent to selling your shares and you do not pay fees.