manifold/docs/docs/$how-to.md

How to Manifold

Manifold Markets is a novel site where users can bet against each other to predict the outcomes of all types of questions. Engage in intense discussion, or joke with friends, whilst putting play-money where your mouth is.

Mana

Mana (M$) is our virtual play currency that cannot be converted to real money.

• Its Value

  You can redeem your Mana and we will donate to a charity on your behalf. Redeeming and purchasing Mana occurs at a rate of M$100 to $1. You will be able to redeem it for merch and other cool items soon too!

• It sets us apart

  Using play-money sets us apart from other similar sites as we don’t want our users to solely focus on monetary gains. Instead we prioritize providing value in the form of an enjoyable experience and facilitating a more informed world through the power of prediction markets.

How probabilities work

The probability of a market represents what the collective bets of users predict the chances of an outcome occurring is. How this is calculated depends on the type of market - see below!

Types of markets

There are currently 3 types of markets: Yes/No (binary), Free response, and Numerical.

• Yes/No (Binary)

  The creator asks a question where traders can bet yes or no.

  Check out Maniswap for more info on its automated market maker.

• Free Response

  The creator asks an open ended question. Both the creator and users can propose answers which can be bet on. Don’t be intimidated to add new answers! The payout system and initial liquidity rewards users who bet on new answers early. The algorithm used to determine the probability and payout is complicated but if you want to learn more check out DPM.

• Numerical

  Retracted whilst we make improvements. You still may see some old ones floating around though. Questions which can be answered by a number within a given range. Betting on a value will cause you to buy shares from ‘buckets’ surrounding the number you choose.

Compete and build your portfolio

Generate profits to prove your expertise and shine above your friends.

To the moon 🚀

• Find inaccurate probabilities

  Use your superior knowledge on topics to identify markets which have inaccurate probabilities. This gives you favorable odds, so bet accordingly to shift the probability to what you think it should be.

• React to news

  Markets are dynamic and ongoing events can drastically affect what the probability should look like. Be the keenest to react and there is a lot of Mana to be made.

• Buy low, sell high

  Similar to a stock market, probabilities can be overvalued and undervalued. If you bet (buy shares) at one end of the spectrum and subsequently other users buy even more shares of that same type, the value of your own shares will increase. Sometimes it will be most profitable to wait for the market to resolve but often it can be wise to sell your shares and take the immediate profits. This can also be a great way to free up Mana if you are lacking funds.

• Create innovative answers

  Certain free response markets provide room for creativity! The answers themselves can often affect the outcome based on how compelling they are.

More questions? Check out this community-driven FAQ!