Kill /about page (#293)
This commit is contained in:
Marshall Polaris
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.h1,
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.h2,
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.h3 {
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color: #4338ca !important;
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}
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.a {
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font-weight: 600 !important;
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}
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@ -1,342 +0,0 @@
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import { cloneElement } from 'react'
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import { CREATOR_FEE } from 'common/fees'
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import { Page } from 'web/components/page'
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import { SEO } from 'web/components/SEO'
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import styles from './about.module.css'
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export default function About() {
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return (
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<Page margin>
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<SEO title="About" description="About" url="/about" />
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<div className="prose lg:prose-lg mx-auto text-gray-700">
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<Contents />
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</div>
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</Page>
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)
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}
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// Return a copy of the JSX node tree, with the style applied
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const cloneWithStyle = (node: JSX.Element) => {
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// Base case: Node is a string
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if (!node.type) return node
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// Find the appropriate style from the module.css
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const className = styles[node.type]
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// Recursively call this function on each child
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let children = node.props.children
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if (children?.map) {
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// Multiple child elements
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children = children.map(cloneWithStyle)
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} else if (children) {
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// Single child element
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children = cloneWithStyle(children)
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}
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// Note: This probably strips out any existing classNames
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return cloneElement(node, { className, children })
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}
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// Copied from https://www.notion.so/mantic/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2
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// And then run through https://markdowntohtml.com/
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function Contents() {
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return cloneWithStyle(
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<div>
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<h2 id="about">About</h2>
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<p>
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Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic.
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Win virtual money betting on what you know, from{' '}
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<a href="https://manifold.markets/SG/will-magnus-carlsen-lose-any-regula">
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chess tournaments
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</a>{' '}
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to{' '}
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<a href="https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-the-wayward-falcon-9-booster-h">
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lunar collisions
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</a>{' '}
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to{' '}
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<a href="https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/how-many-additional-subscribers-wil">
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newsletter subscriber rates
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</a>{' '}
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- or learn about the future by creating your own market!
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</p>
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<h3 id="what-are-prediction-markets-">What are prediction markets?</h3>
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<p>
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<strong>
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Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of
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future events.
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</strong>
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</p>
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<p>
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Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US
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presidential election?"
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</p>
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<p>
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If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I
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might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total).
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This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning.
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</p>
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<p>
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Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability
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one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to
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bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to
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the{' '}
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis">
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market's best estimate
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</a>
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. Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make
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better decisions!
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</p>
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<h3 id="how-does-manifold-markets-work-">
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How does Manifold Markets work?
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</h3>
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<ol>
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<li>
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<strong>
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Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question.
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</strong>
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<p>
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You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove
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its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" If the market
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thinks this is very likely, you can plan more activities for your
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trip.
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</p>
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<p>
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You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I
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enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your
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family and friends and get their takes!
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</p>
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</li>
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<li>
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<strong>
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Anyone can bet on a market using Manifold Dollars (M$), our platform
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currency.
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</strong>
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<p>
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You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting
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immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor,
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you'll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you.
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</p>
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</li>
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</ol>
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<p>
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More questions? Check out{' '}
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<a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
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this community-driven FAQ
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</a>
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!
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</p>
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<h3 id="can-prediction-markets-work-without-real-money-">
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Can prediction markets work without real money?
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</h3>
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<p>
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Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets
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provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '}
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<a href="http://www.electronicmarkets.org/fileadmin/user_upload/doc/Issues/Volume_16/Issue_01/V16I1_Statistical_Tests_of_Real-Money_versus_Play-Money_Prediction_Markets.pdf">
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sports betting
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</a>{' '}
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and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '}
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<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/2284098/google-bets-on-value-of-prediction-markets.html">
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Google
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</a>
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.
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</p>
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<p>
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Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on
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top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace,
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bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to
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better-calibrated forecasts over time.
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</p>
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<p>
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Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a
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thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform
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at{' '}
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<a href="http://manifold.markets/analytics">
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http://manifold.markets/analytics
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</a>
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.
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</p>
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<h3 id="why-is-this-important-">Why is this important?</h3>
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<p>
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Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would
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not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can
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influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to
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scientific research and education.
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</p>
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<p>
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Prediction markets can predict{' '}
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<a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/112/50/15343">
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which research papers will replicate
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</a>
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; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most
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tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is
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the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective
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knowledge, we as a society become wiser.
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</p>
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<h3 id="how-does-betting-work">How does betting work?</h3>
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<ul>
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<li>Markets are structured around a question with a binary outcome.</li>
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<li>
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Traders can place a bet on either YES or NO. The trader receives some
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shares of the betting pool. The number of shares depends on the
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current probability.
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</li>
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<li>
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When the market is resolved, the traders who bet on the correct
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outcome are paid out of the final pool in proportion to the number of
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shares they own.
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</li>
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</ul>
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<h3 id="how-are-markets-resolved-">How are markets resolved?</h3>
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<p>
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The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '}
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{CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits. as a commission for creating and
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resolving the market.
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</p>
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<p>
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This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a
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diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will
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lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market
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resolution.
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</p>
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<p>
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What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many
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new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective
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or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the
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Metaverse in 2023?")
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</p>
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{/* <h3 id="how-is-this-different-from-metaculus-or-hypermind-">
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How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?
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</h3> */}
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{/* <p>
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We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin
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in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency
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they use on our platform.
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</p>
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<p>
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With Manifold Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more
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carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts.
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The result is more accurate predictions.
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</p> */}
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{/* <p>
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Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to
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quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power
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to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own
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judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number,
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variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.
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</p> */}
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<h3 id="type-of-market-maker">What kind of betting system do you use?</h3>
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<p>
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Manifold Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on
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a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system.
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</p>
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<p>
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Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the
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time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pool when
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the event is resolved).
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</p>
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<p>
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Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that
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you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always
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getting fair odds.
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</p>
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<p>
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The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low
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without any risk to the market creator.
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</p>
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<p>
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Read{' '}
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<a href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5">
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our technical guide
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</a>{' '}
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to find out more!
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</p>
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<h3 id="private-markets">Can I create private markets?</h3>
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<p>
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Soon! We're running a pilot version of Manifold for Teams - private
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Manifold instances where you can discuss internal topics and predict on
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outcomes for your organization.
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</p>
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<p>
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If this sounds like something you’d want,{' '}
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfM_rxRHemCjKE6KPiYXGyP2nBSInZNKn_wc7yS1-rvlLAVnA/viewform?usp=sf_link">
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join the waitlist here
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</a>
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!
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</p>
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<h3 id="who-are-we-">Who are we?</h3>
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<p>Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:</p>
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<ul>
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<li>James Grugett</li>
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<li>Stephen Grugett</li>
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<li>Austin Chen</li>
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</ul>
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<p>
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We've previously launched consumer-facing startups (
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<a href="https://throne.live/">Throne</a>,{' '}
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<a href="http://oneword.games/platform">One Word</a>), and worked at top
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tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna).
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</p>
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<h2 id="talk-to-us-">Talk to us!</h2>
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<p>Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us!</p>
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<ul>
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<li>
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Email:{' '}
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<a href="mailto:info@manifold.markets">info@manifold.markets</a>
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</li>
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<li>
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Office hours:{' '}
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<ul>
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<li>
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<a href="https://calendly.com/austinchen/manifold">
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Calendly — Austin
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</a>
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</li>
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<li>
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<a href="https://calendly.com/jamesgrugett/manifold">
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Calendly — James
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</a>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</li>
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<li>
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Chat:{' '}
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<a href="https://discord.gg/eHQBNBqXuh">
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Manifold Markets Discord server
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</a>
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</li>
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</ul>
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<p></p>
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<h2 id="further-reading">Further Reading</h2>
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<ul>
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<li>
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<a href="https://outsidetheasylum.blog/manifold-markets-faq/">
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An in-depth, unofficial FAQ by Isaac King
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</a>
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</li>
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<li>
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<a href="https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5">
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How Manifold's market maker works
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</a>
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</li>
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<li>
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<a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems">
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Scott Alexander on play-money prediction markets
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</a>
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</li>
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<li>
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<a href="https://sideways-view.com/2019/10/27/prediction-markets-for-internet-points/">
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Paul Christiano on prediction markets for internet points
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</a>
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</li>
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</ul>
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</div>
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)
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}
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