From d072216d2da0af2a0883e9ff0217175ad9e882ac Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Marshall Polaris Date: Sun, 22 May 2022 12:40:16 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] Kill /about page (#293) --- web/pages/about.module.css | 9 - web/pages/about.tsx | 342 ------------------------------------- 2 files changed, 351 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 web/pages/about.module.css delete mode 100644 web/pages/about.tsx diff --git a/web/pages/about.module.css b/web/pages/about.module.css deleted file mode 100644 index d63dce77..00000000 --- a/web/pages/about.module.css +++ /dev/null @@ -1,9 +0,0 @@ -.h1, -.h2, -.h3 { - color: #4338ca !important; -} - -.a { - font-weight: 600 !important; -} diff --git a/web/pages/about.tsx b/web/pages/about.tsx deleted file mode 100644 index d2a1bee2..00000000 --- a/web/pages/about.tsx +++ /dev/null @@ -1,342 +0,0 @@ -import { cloneElement } from 'react' -import { CREATOR_FEE } from 'common/fees' -import { Page } from 'web/components/page' -import { SEO } from 'web/components/SEO' -import styles from './about.module.css' - -export default function About() { - return ( - - -
- -
- - ) -} - -// Return a copy of the JSX node tree, with the style applied -const cloneWithStyle = (node: JSX.Element) => { - // Base case: Node is a string - if (!node.type) return node - - // Find the appropriate style from the module.css - const className = styles[node.type] - - // Recursively call this function on each child - let children = node.props.children - if (children?.map) { - // Multiple child elements - children = children.map(cloneWithStyle) - } else if (children) { - // Single child element - children = cloneWithStyle(children) - } - - // Note: This probably strips out any existing classNames - return cloneElement(node, { className, children }) -} - -// Copied from https://www.notion.so/mantic/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2 -// And then run through https://markdowntohtml.com/ -function Contents() { - return cloneWithStyle( -
-

About

-

- Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. - Win virtual money betting on what you know, from{' '} - - chess tournaments - {' '} - to{' '} - - lunar collisions - {' '} - to{' '} - - newsletter subscriber rates - {' '} - - or learn about the future by creating your own market! -

-

What are prediction markets?

-

- - Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of - future events. - -

-

- Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US - presidential election?" -

-

- If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I - might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). - This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning. -

-

- Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability - one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to - bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to - the{' '} - - market's best estimate - - . Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make - better decisions! -

-

- How does Manifold Markets work? -

-
    -
  1. - - Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question. - -

    - You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove - its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" If the market - thinks this is very likely, you can plan more activities for your - trip. -

    -

    - You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I - enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your - family and friends and get their takes! -

    -
    2. -
  2. - - Anyone can bet on a market using Manifold Dollars (M$), our platform - currency. - -

    - You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting - immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, - you'll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you. -

    -
    3. -
-

- More questions? Check out{' '} - - this community-driven FAQ - - ! -

-

- Can prediction markets work without real money? -

-

- Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets - provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '} - - sports betting - {' '} - and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '} - - Google - - . -

-

- Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on - top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, - bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to - better-calibrated forecasts over time. -

-

- Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a - thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform - at{' '} - - http://manifold.markets/analytics - - . -

- -

Why is this important?

-

- Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would - not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can - influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to - scientific research and education. -

-

- Prediction markets can predict{' '} - - which research papers will replicate - - ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most - tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is - the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective - knowledge, we as a society become wiser. -

- -

How does betting work?

- - -

How are markets resolved?

-

- The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '} - {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits. as a commission for creating and - resolving the market. -

-

- This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a - diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will - lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market - resolution. -

-

- What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many - new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective - or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the - Metaverse in 2023?") -

- {/*

- How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind? -

*/} - {/*

- We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin - in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency - they use on our platform. -

-

- With Manifold Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more - carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts. - The result is more accurate predictions. -

*/} - {/*

- Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to - quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power - to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own - judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number, - variety, and usefulness of prediction markets. -

*/} - -

What kind of betting system do you use?

-

- Manifold Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on - a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system. -

-

- Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the - time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pool when - the event is resolved). -

-

- Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that - you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always - getting fair odds. -

-

- The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low - without any risk to the market creator. -

-

- Read{' '} - - our technical guide - {' '} - to find out more! -

- -

Can I create private markets?

-

- Soon! We're running a pilot version of Manifold for Teams - private - Manifold instances where you can discuss internal topics and predict on - outcomes for your organization. -

-

- If this sounds like something you’d want,{' '} - - join the waitlist here - - ! -

- -

Who are we?

-

Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:

- -

- We've previously launched consumer-facing startups ( - Throne,{' '} - One Word), and worked at top - tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna). -

-

Talk to us!

-

Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us!

- -

- -

Further Reading

- - -
- ) -}