- Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. - Win virtual money betting on what you know, from{' '} - - chess tournaments - {' '} - to{' '} - - lunar collisions - {' '} - to{' '} - - newsletter subscriber rates - {' '} - - or learn about the future by creating your own market! -
-- - Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of - future events. - -
-- Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US - presidential election?" -
-- If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I - might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). - This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning. -
-- Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability - one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to - bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to - the{' '} - - market's best estimate - - . Since these probabilities are public, anyone can use them to make - better decisions! -
-- You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove - its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" If the market - thinks this is very likely, you can plan more activities for your - trip. -
-- You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I - enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your - family and friends and get their takes! -
-- You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting - immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, - you'll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you. -
-- More questions? Check out{' '} - - this community-driven FAQ - - ! -
-- Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets - provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '} - - sports betting - {' '} - and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '} - - Google - - . -
-- Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on - top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, - bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to - better-calibrated forecasts over time. -
-- Since our launch, we've seen hundreds of users trade each day, on over a - thousand different markets! You can track the popularity of our platform - at{' '} - - http://manifold.markets/analytics - - . -
- -- Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would - not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can - influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to - scientific research and education. -
-- Prediction markets can predict{' '} - - which research papers will replicate - - ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most - tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or which startup idea is - the most promising. By surfacing and quantifying our collective - knowledge, we as a society become wiser. -
- -- The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '} - {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of trader profits. as a commission for creating and - resolving the market. -
-- This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a - diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will - lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market - resolution. -
-- What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many - new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective - or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the - Metaverse in 2023?") -
- {/*- We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin - in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency - they use on our platform. -
-- With Manifold Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more - carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts. - The result is more accurate predictions. -
*/} - {/*- Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to - quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power - to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own - judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number, - variety, and usefulness of prediction markets. -
*/} - -- Manifold Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on - a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system. -
-- Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the - time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pool when - the event is resolved). -
-- Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that - you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always - getting fair odds. -
-- The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low - without any risk to the market creator. -
-- Read{' '} - - our technical guide - {' '} - to find out more! -
- -- Soon! We're running a pilot version of Manifold for Teams - private - Manifold instances where you can discuss internal topics and predict on - outcomes for your organization. -
-- If this sounds like something you’d want,{' '} - - join the waitlist here - - ! -
- -Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:
-- We've previously launched consumer-facing startups ( - Throne,{' '} - One Word), and worked at top - tech and trading firms (Google, Susquehanna). -
-Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us!
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