24 KiB
24 KiB
| 1 | title | url | platform | description | options | numforecasts | numforecasters | stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows" target="_blank">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the "TABLE" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for "World," and see the relevant number in the column titled "End." The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure. | [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 3 | How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021. | [{"name":"Fewer than 360,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 410,000 but less than 470,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 540,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 4 | As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as "<a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70" target="_blank">next waves</a>" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/" target="_blank">here</a> each day. | [{"name":"Less than 275,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 300,000 but less than 350,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 5 | How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083" target="_blank">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438. | [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 6 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | |||
| 7 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). | [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 8 | When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390" target="_blank">criticized</a> for being <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP" target="_blank">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. | [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 9 | When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. | [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 10 | When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. | [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 11 | What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. | [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 12 | In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. | [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 13 | What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. | [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 14 | What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021. | [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 15 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). | [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 | ||
| 16 | As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. | [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] | 4 |