quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Daily commit

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2021-03-16 11:52:13 +01:00
parent 1a279ff70d
commit 7b7212df17
26 changed files with 22579 additions and 17612 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

110
data/MichaelADatabaseOfXRiskEstimates.csv Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,110 @@
title,url,probability,actualEstimate,platform,date_approx,category,description
Total existential risk by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.17,~17% (~1 in 6),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,"Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.19,19%,GCR Conference,2008,Total risk,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
Existential risk in the 21st century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript,0.01,1%,Will MacAskill,2019,Total risk,
Extinction risk in the next century,https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/,0.03,Probably at or above 3%,"Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",2017,Total risk,
Risk of extinction over the next five centuries,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.3,At or above 30%,John Leslie,1996,Total risk,"""The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,"≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")",Martin Rees,2003,Total risk,
"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/,0.08,Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.,Metaculus responders,,Total risk,That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
Existential disaster will do us in,https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html,0.25,Probably at or above 25%,Nick Bostrom,2002,Total risk,
"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,5%.,Gott III,1993,Total risk,
Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0035,0.3-0.4%,Wells,2009,Total risk,
Global catastrophic risk per year.,https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072,0.002,0.2%,Simpson,2016,Total risk,"Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk""."
Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.5,50% (~1 in 2),Toby Ord,2020,Total risk,
Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg,0.2,>20%,Ozzie Gooen,2020,Total risk,"""I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."""
Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.1,~10%,Toby Ord,2020,AI,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,Global Catastrophic Risk Conference,2008,AI,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence,https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807,0.05,5%,Survey of AI experts,2017,AI,"The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.05,0-10%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,AI,
AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg,0.055,~0.1-1%,Ben Garfinkel,2020,AI,"Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."""
"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.05,~5%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
AI-induced existential catastrophe,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.5,50%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI,
Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.0005,0.05%,James Fodor,2020,AI,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
Existential risk from AI,https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229,0.175,5-30%,Stuart Armstrong,2020,AI,"""I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. "
Chance of humanity not surviving AI,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40),0.4,"50, 40, or 33%",Stuart Armstrong,2014,AI,"Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/,0.01,~10%,Paul Christiano,2019,AI,"He also says ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."""
Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?),https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854,41.5,33-50%,Jaan Tallinn,2020,AI,"This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.03,~3% (~1 in 30),Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.0005,0.05%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,"~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",Toby Ord,2020,Biorisk,
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.02,2%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.00004,0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism,https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028,0.0000019,0.00019% (0.0000019),Millet & Snyder-Beattie,2017,Biorisk,
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,"The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.000001,0.0001%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Biorisk,
Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks,0.000002,0.0002%,James Fodor,2020,Biorisk,"This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.005,0.5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology,"This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.0001,0.0100%,Pamlin & Armstrong,2015,Nanotechnology,
Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120,https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0,0.02,~2% (~1 in 50),Toby Ord,2020,Nanotechnology,See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810,0.33,"~33% (""about one in three"")",Toby Ord,2020,Total risk/conditional,"""Ord: """"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""""""
"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.18,18%,Survey of experts in the AI field,2016,AI/conditional,"This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"" "
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.1,~10%,Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,"This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism,0.7,~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates),Rohin Shah,2019,AI/conditional,
"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.2,~20%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/conditional,"This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."""
Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.02,~2%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/Conditional,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper,http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html,0.000055,"0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",Luke Oman,2012,Nuclear/Conditional,"I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming ",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.1,10%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.35,30-40%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.6,60%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.9,90%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/,0.97,97%,Mark Lynas,2020,Climate change/conditional,"Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."""
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904,0.03,3%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905,0.1,10%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906,0.001,0.1%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907,0.25,25%,Bryan Caplan,2006,Misc/conditional,Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,AI/non-existential,"This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests,https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.1,~10%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,"""So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."""
"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/,0.25,~20-30%,Adam Gleave,2019,AI/non-existential,
The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Rohin Shah,2020,AI/non-existential,"""There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."""
We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important,https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/,0.3,~30%,Buck Schlegris,2020,AI/non-existential,"""I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."""
We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.5,~50%,Toby Ord,2020,AI/non-existential,"""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."""
Soft AGI takeoff,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.7,70%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.67,67%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.62,62%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.6,60%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.52,52%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.005,0.5%,Brian Tomasik,2015,AI/non-existential,
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,AI/non-existential,
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.6,60%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Biorisk/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.25,25%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.05,5%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.01,1%,GCR Conference,2008,Nanotechnology/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.1,10%,GCR Conference,2008,Nuclear/non-existential,This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century,https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript,0.05,~5%,Toby Ord,2020,Nuclear/non-existential,"""I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
Per year chance of nuclear war,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.011,1.10%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia,https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1,0.0038,0.38%,Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez,2019,Nuclear/non-existential,"""In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Climate change/non-existential,
At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.98,98%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100,https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf,0.3,30%,GCR Conference,2008,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.72,72%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort,http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.7,70%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/,0.5,50%,Brian Tomasik,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments),http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/,0.1,10%,Pablo Stafforini,2015,Miscellaneous/non-existential,
1 title url probability actualEstimate platform date_approx category description
2 Total existential risk by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.17 ~17% (~1 in 6) Toby Ord 2020 Total risk Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability." This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his "business as usual" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.
3 Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.19 19% GCR Conference 2008 Total risk This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
4 Existential risk in the 21st century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript 0.01 1% Will MacAskill 2019 Total risk
5 Extinction risk in the next century https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/ 0.03 Probably at or above 3% Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours 2017 Total risk
6 Risk of extinction over the next five centuries https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.3 At or above 30% John Leslie 1996 Total risk "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”
7 Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.5 ≤50% ("no better than fifty-fifty") Martin Rees 2003 Total risk
8 There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ 0.08 Median: 1%. Mean: 8%. Metaculus responders Total risk That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.
9 Existential disaster will do us in https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html 0.25 Probably at or above 25% Nick Bostrom 2002 Total risk
10 Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.05 5%. Gott III 1993 Total risk
11 Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0035 0.3-0.4% Wells 2009 Total risk
12 Global catastrophic risk per year. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072 0.002 0.2% Simpson 2016 Total risk Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about "global catastrophic risk".
13 Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.5 50% (~1 in 2) Toby Ord 2020 Total risk
14 Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg 0.2 >20% Ozzie Gooen 2020 Total risk "I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
15 Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.1 ~10% Toby Ord 2020 AI
16 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% Global Catastrophic Risk Conference 2008 AI This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
17 Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 0.05 5% Survey of AI experts 2017 AI The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/
18 A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.05 0-10% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 AI
19 AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg 0.055 ~0.1-1% Ben Garfinkel 2020 AI Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied "I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
20 Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.05 ~5% Rohin Shah 2020 AI This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/
21 AI-induced existential catastrophe https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.5 50% Buck Schlegris 2020 AI
22 Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks 0.0005 0.05% James Fodor 2020 AI This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.
23 Existential risk from AI https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229 0.175 5-30% Stuart Armstrong 2020 AI "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased." I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.
24 Chance of humanity not surviving AI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40) 0.4 50, 40, or 33% Stuart Armstrong 2014 AI Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted "This number fluctuates a lot". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an "actually superintelligent" AI, whereas for "AI in general" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more "optimism" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.
25 Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/ 0.01 ~10% Paul Christiano 2019 AI He also says "I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number." And "All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."
26 Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?) https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854 41.5 33-50% Jaan Tallinn 2020 AI This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said "two obvious Schelling points" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.
27 Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.03 ~3% (~1 in 30) Toby Ord 2020 Biorisk
28 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.0005 0.05% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
29 Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0001 ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000) Toby Ord 2020 Biorisk
30 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.02 2% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
31 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 0.00004 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8) Millet & Snyder-Beattie 2017 Biorisk The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include "accidental" release of a bioengineered pathogen.
32 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 0.0000019 0.00019% (0.0000019) Millet & Snyder-Beattie 2017 Biorisk
33 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.000001 0.0001% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Biorisk The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for "synthetic biology" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.
34 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.000001 0.0001% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Biorisk
35 Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks 0.000002 0.0002% James Fodor 2020 Biorisk This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.
36 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
37 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.005 0.5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.
38 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.0001 0.0100% Pamlin & Armstrong 2015 Nanotechnology
39 Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 0.02 ~2% (~1 in 50) Toby Ord 2020 Nanotechnology See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)
40 Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do) https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810 0.33 ~33% ("about one in three") Toby Ord 2020 Total risk/conditional "Ord: ""one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen? My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together."" Arden Koehler replies ""Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?"" Ord replies: ""That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."""
41 The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 0.18 18% Survey of experts in the AI field 2016 AI/conditional This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was "4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
42 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.1 ~10% Rohin Shah 2019 AI/conditional This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/
43 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism 0.7 ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates) Rohin Shah 2019 AI/conditional
44 Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.2 ~20% Toby Ord 2020 AI/conditional This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time. "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. [For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
45 Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.02 ~2% Toby Ord 2020 Nuclear/Conditional "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.
46 Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html 0.000055 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”) Luke Oman 2012 Nuclear/Conditional I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.
47 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.1 10% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
48 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.35 30-40% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
49 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.6 60% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
50 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.9 90% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
51 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ 0.97 97% Mark Lynas 2020 Climate change/conditional Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
52 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 0.03 3% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
53 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905 0.1 10% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
54 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906 0.001 0.1% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability
55 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907 0.25 25% Bryan Caplan 2006 Misc/conditional Increased from his 5% unconditional probability
56 At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 AI/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
57 At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 AI/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.
58 AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ 0.1 ~10% Adam Gleave 2019 AI/non-existential "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
59 AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ 0.25 ~20-30% Adam Gleave 2019 AI/non-existential
60 The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.3 ~30% Rohin Shah 2020 AI/non-existential "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
61 We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ 0.3 ~30% Buck Schlegris 2020 AI/non-existential "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
62 We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.5 ~50% Toby Ord 2020 AI/non-existential "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
63 Soft AGI takeoff https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.7 70% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
64 By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.67 67% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
65 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.62 62% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
66 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.6 60% Pablo Stafforini 2015 AI/non-existential
67 Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.52 52% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
68 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.005 0.5% Brian Tomasik 2015 AI/non-existential
69 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.1 10% Pablo Stafforini 2015 AI/non-existential
70 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
71 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
72 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.6 60% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
73 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Biorisk/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
74 At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.25 25% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
75 At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
76 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.05 5% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
77 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.01 1% GCR Conference 2008 Nanotechnology/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
78 At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
79 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
80 At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
81 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.1 10% GCR Conference 2008 Nuclear/non-existential This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.
82 chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript 0.05 ~5% Toby Ord 2020 Nuclear/non-existential "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.
83 Per year chance of nuclear war https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 0.011 1.10% Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez 2019 Nuclear/non-existential "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.
84 Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 0.0038 0.38% Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez 2019 Nuclear/non-existential "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.
85 Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.5 50% Brian Tomasik 2015 Climate change/non-existential
86 At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.98 98% GCR Conference 2008 Miscellaneous/non-existential
87 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf 0.3 30% GCR Conference 2008 Miscellaneous/non-existential
88 Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.72 72% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
89 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.72 72% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
90 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.7 70% Pablo Stafforini 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
91 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ 0.5 50% Brian Tomasik 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential
92 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ 0.1 10% Pablo Stafforini 2015 Miscellaneous/non-existential

102
data/csetforetell-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,51 +1,51 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.1783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","6",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","3",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.43200000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","5",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.39799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.055999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","5",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.051399999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","52",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","93",2
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","142",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.42450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.21239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","43",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.42369999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32189999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","41",2
"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","121",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","96",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30269999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","119",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35259999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","45",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","125",3
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","50",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","113",3
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","92",2
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17550000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","62",2
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","273",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10779999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","202",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","189",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","120",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","162",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","188",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.44520000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042699999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","115",3
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.1783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6","6",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.43200000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.39799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.055999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.051399999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","52","51",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","93","86",2
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","142","120",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.42450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.21239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","43","41",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.42369999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32189999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","41","39",2
"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","121","106",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","85",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30269999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","119","110",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35259999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","39",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","99",3
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","50","47",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","113","79",3
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","81",2
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17550000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","62","58",2
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273","180",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10779999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","127",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","154",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","101",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","124",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","135",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.44520000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042699999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","69",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.1367,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.1783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 6 6 2
3 How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.0333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.3333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.2267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.23670000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3 3 2
4 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.43200000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 5 2
5 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.14800000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.28800000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.39799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.055999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 5 2
6 What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.051399999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.21170000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3443,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.2826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 52 51 2
7 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 93 86 2
8 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 142 120 3
9 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0559,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.23170000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.42450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.21239999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.0755,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 43 41 2
10 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.42369999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.32189999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0833,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 41 39 2
11 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.319,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.3066,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.045599999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 121 106 3
12 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.053200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.21309999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.3461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 96 85 2
13 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.048600000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.30269999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.3281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.1957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.1249,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 119 110 3
14 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.0426,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0885,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.2148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.35259999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.3015,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 45 39 2
15 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1276,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.29960000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.1085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0301,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 125 99 3
16 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0458,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.3048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.23149999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.23670000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 47 2
17 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 113 79 3
18 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.337,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.293,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 92 81 2
19 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. [{"name":"Less than 20%","probability":0.0965,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 25%, inclusive","probability":0.17550000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%","probability":0.36229999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%","probability":0.2483,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 35%","probability":0.1175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 62 58 2
20 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 273 180 3
21 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.038,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.10779999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.24239999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 202 127 3
22 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.1315,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.1916,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.133,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 189 154 3
23 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.1637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 120 101 3
24 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 162 124 3
25 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0676,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 188 135 3
26 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.44520000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.2731,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.1523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.0867,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.042699999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 115 69 3
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

684
data/elicit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,352 +1,352 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,352,1
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.821587982832618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17841201716738198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,233,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36962264150943397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6303773584905661,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,159,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,138,1
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,114,1
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,214,1
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,116,1
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,108,1
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,119,1
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,110,1
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,100,1
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,106,1
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,97,1
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,112,1
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,158,1
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,82,1
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,76,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,85,1
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,74,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,75,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,83,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04367647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9563235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,68,1
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,41,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,65,1
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,37,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8055769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,52,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8340740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16592592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13080000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5648011363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4351988636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",352,143,1
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.821587982832618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17841201716738198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",233,125,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36962264150943397,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6303773584905661,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",159,103,1
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5289130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47108695652173915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",138,96,1
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.757280701754386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.242719298245614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",114,92,1
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333177570093458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",214,91,1
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6183620689655173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38163793103448274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",116,87,1
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4249074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5750925925925926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",108,77,1
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5068067226890757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4931932773109243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",119,77,1
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",110,77,1
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11789999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",100,75,1
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6116981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3883018867924528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",106,74,1
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2895876288659794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7104123711340207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",97,73,1
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4311607142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5688392857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",112,71,1
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5817721518987341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4182278481012659,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",158,70,1
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,69,1
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",82,68,1
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",84,67,1
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",86,66,1
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",87,66,1
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,63,1
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",80,63,1
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",79,62,1
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",76,61,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",85,57,1
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",74,54,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",75,52,1
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",66,52,1
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",83,45,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04367647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9563235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",68,40,1
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",41,37,1
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20215384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7978461538461539,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",65,36,1
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5548648648648649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44513513513513514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",37,35,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6111904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3888095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,33,1
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.687142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31285714285714294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,34,1
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,33,1
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,32,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,29,1
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,30,1
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,29,1
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,29,1
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,29,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,28,1
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,28,1
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,28,1
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",31,28,1
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,28,1
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,27,1
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,26,1
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,26,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",42,26,1
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,26,1
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",38,26,1
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,25,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8055769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",52,25,1
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,24,1
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,23,1
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,23,1
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,23,1
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,23,1
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,22,1
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,22,1
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,22,1
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,22,1
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,22,1
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,22,1
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,21,1
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,21,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,21,1
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,21,1
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,21,1
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,21,1
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",39,21,1
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,21,1
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,20,1
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,20,1
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,20,1
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",28,20,1
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",47,20,1
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,20,1
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,20,1
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,19,1
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",35,18,1
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,19,1
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,19,1
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,19,1
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,19,1
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,19,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,19,1
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",40,18,1
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",50,18,1
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8340740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16592592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13080000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,18,1
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,18,1
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,18,1
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,18,1
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,18,1
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",27,18,1
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,17,1
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,17,1
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",21,17,1
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,17,1
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",23,17,1
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,17,1
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,16,1
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,16,1
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,16,1
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,16,1
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,16,1
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,15,1
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,15,1
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,15,1
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,15,1
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,15,1
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,15,1
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,15,1
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,14,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",20,14,1
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,14,1
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,14,1
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",17,14,1
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,14,1
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,14,1
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,13,1
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",18,13,1
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,13,1
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",32,13,1
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,13,1
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,13,1
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",36,13,1
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,13,1
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",33,12,1
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",19,12,1
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,13,1
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,12,1
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",29,12,1
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,12,1
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,12,1
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,12,1
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,12,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",26,11,1
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",15,11,1
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",25,11,1
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",22,11,1
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",24,11,1
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,11,1
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,11,1
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,11,1
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,11,1
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",34,11,1
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,11,1
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",16,10,1
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11,10,1
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",13,10,1
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",14,10,1
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",10,10,1
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",,"[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",12,10,1
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5648011363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4351988636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 352 143 1
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.821587982832618,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17841201716738198,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 233 125 1
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36962264150943397,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6303773584905661,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 159 103 1
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5289130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47108695652173915,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 138 96 1
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.757280701754386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.242719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 114 92 1
7 The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333177570093458,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666822429906542,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 214 91 1
8 Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6183620689655173,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38163793103448274,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 116 87 1
9 Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4249074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5750925925925926,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 108 77 1
10 How vivid is your visual imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5068067226890757,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4931932773109243,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 119 77 1
11 Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 110 77 1
12 Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11789999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8821,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 100 75 1
13 How vivid is your sound imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6116981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3883018867924528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 106 74 1
14 Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2895876288659794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7104123711340207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 97 73 1
15 Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4311607142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5688392857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 71 1
16 There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5817721518987341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4182278481012659,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 158 70 1
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25726190476190475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7427380952380953,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 69 1
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25414634146341464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7458536585365854,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 82 68 1
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2538095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7461904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 67 1
20 How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7812790697674419,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21872093023255812,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 66 1
21 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1975862068965517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8024137931034483,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 66 1
22 How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5229113924050633,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47708860759493665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 63 1
23 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8227500000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1772499999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 80 63 1
24 How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3612658227848101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6387341772151899,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 62 1
25 How much control do you have over your mind? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45592105263157895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5440789473684211,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 76 61 1
26 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42764705882352944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5723529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 85 57 1
27 Trump will win a second term https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.462027027027027,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.537972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 74 54 1
28 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24506666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7549333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 75 52 1
29 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3156060606060606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6843939393939393,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 66 52 1
30 Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8951807228915662,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10481927710843375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 45 1
31 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04367647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9563235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 68 40 1
32 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6021951219512195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3978048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 41 37 1
33 The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20215384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7978461538461539,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 65 36 1
34 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5548648648648649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44513513513513514,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 37 35 1
35 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6111904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3888095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 33 1
36 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.687142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31285714285714294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 34 1
37 The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28800000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.712,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 33 1
38 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007941176470588234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 32 1
39 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.36911764705882355,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6308823529411764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 29 1
40 The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0303125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 30 1
41 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38967741935483874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6103225806451613,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 29 1
42 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47382978723404257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261702127659574,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 28 1
43 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 29 1
44 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9709090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 29 1
45 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 28 1
46 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5493617021276596,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45063829787234044,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 28 1
47 No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9027272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09727272727272729,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 28 1
48 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08806451612903227,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9119354838709677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 31 28 1
49 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17874999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 28 1
50 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08678571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9132142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 27 1
51 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9976923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 26 1
52 California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006764705882352942,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9932352941176471,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 26 1
53 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4023809523809524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5976190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 26 1
54 ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2479310344827586,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7520689655172415,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 26 1
55 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10552631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8944736842105263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 38 26 1
56 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018846153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9811538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 25 1
57 In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8055769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19442307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 52 25 1
58 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4684375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5315624999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 24 1
59 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9030769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 23 1
60 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35119999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6488,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 23 1
61 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5855882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41441176470588237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 23 1
62 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07461538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9253846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 23 1
63 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2439285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7560714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 23 1
64 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19347826086956524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8065217391304348,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 22 1
65 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 22 1
66 Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33909090909090905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6609090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 22 1
67 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6226923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37730769230769234,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 22 1
68 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8411111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15888888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 22 1
69 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31120000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 22 1
70 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6084375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39156250000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 21 1
71 For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2885185185185185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7114814814814815,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 21 1
72 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13119999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8688,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 21 1
73 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7019047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2980952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 21 1
74 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.994090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.005909090909090975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 21 1
75 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3745833333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6254166666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 21 1
76 Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20482758620689656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7951724137931034,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 21 1
77 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5815384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 39 21 1
78 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7363999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 21 1
79 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15333333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
80 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04739130434782608,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9526086956521739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 20 1
81 Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21636363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7836363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
82 The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3109375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6890625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 20 1
83 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2782857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7217142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 20 1
84 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8142857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 28 20 1
85 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
86 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34127659574468083,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6587234042553192,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 20 1
87 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07454545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9254545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
88 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8831818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 20 1
89 Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8838095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 20 1
90 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20523809523809525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7947619047619048,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
91 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
92 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5694285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4305714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 19 1
93 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4704761904761905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5295238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
94 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6031428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 35 18 1
95 United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
96 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02210526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9778947368421053,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 19 1
97 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
98 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8313636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16863636363636358,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 19 1
99 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3638095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6361904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 19 1
100 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.484,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
101 The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7243478260869566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2756521739130434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 19 1
102 No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13249999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 19 1
103 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7484999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25150000000000006,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 19 1
104 Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.648,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.352,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 18 1
105 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6434000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3565999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 18 1
106 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9668181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 18 1
107 In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8340740740740741,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16592592592592592,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 18 1
108 In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.13080000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 18 1
109 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 18 1
110 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6427777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35722222222222233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 18 1
111 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6754545454545454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3245454545454546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 18 1
112 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8795238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 18 1
113 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5177777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4822222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 18 1
114 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3281481481481482,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6718518518518518,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 27 18 1
115 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.017222222222222222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9827777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
116 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2161904761904762,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7838095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 17 1
117 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6933333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30666666666666675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
118 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.018000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.982,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 17 1
119 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6905,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 17 1
120 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8395238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16047619047619055,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 21 17 1
121 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 17 1
122 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12789473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8721052631578947,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 17 1
123 Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26894736842105266,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 17 1
124 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4717391304347826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5282608695652173,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 23 17 1
125 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08388888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9161111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
126 aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.009444444444444445,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9905555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 17 1
127 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5777777777777778,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42222222222222217,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
128 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4288888888888889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5711111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
129 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 16 1
130 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0811764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9188235294117647,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
131 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35526315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6447368421052632,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
132 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7770588235294117,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2229411764705883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
133 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9531578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04684210526315791,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
134 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19105263157894736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8089473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 16 1
135 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 16 1
136 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.049,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.951,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 16 1
137 US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02235294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9776470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 16 1
138 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 15 1
139 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5689655172413793,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43103448275862066,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 15 1
140 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 15 1
141 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5852941176470589,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
142 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6647058823529411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33529411764705885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
143 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.294375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.705625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
144 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7394117647058823,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2605882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
145 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7811764705882354,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21882352941176464,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
146 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 15 1
147 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.118125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.881875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
148 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.933125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06687500000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
149 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5517647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44823529411764707,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
150 C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9353333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06466666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 15 1
151 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03705882352941177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9629411764705882,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 15 1
152 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43473684210526314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5652631578947369,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 15 1
153 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 15 1
154 Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.926875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.073125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 15 1
155 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
156 In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
157 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
158 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.111875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.888125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 14 1
159 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17394444444444446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8260555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
160 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
161 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0955,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9045,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 20 14 1
162 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47388888888888886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5261111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 14 1
163 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
164 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7178571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
165 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9214285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
166 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3026315789473684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6973684210526316,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 14 1
167 Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8717647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12823529411764711,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
168 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08785714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9121428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
169 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05941176470588236,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9405882352941176,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
170 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9017647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 17 14 1
171 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17799999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
172 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 14 1
173 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11733333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8826666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 14 1
174 Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2978571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7021428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
175 Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
176 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9507692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
177 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.106875,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.893125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
178 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4446153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5553846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 13 1
179 Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.853125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14687499999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
180 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
181 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2764285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7235714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
182 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.320625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6793750000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
183 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1336842105263158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8663157894736842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
184 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.040769230769230766,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
185 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7389473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2610526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
186 ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8461111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15388888888888885,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 13 1
187 We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40842105263157896,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.591578947368421,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 13 1
188 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 18 13 1
189 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5135714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
190 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09466666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9053333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
191 Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6271428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3728571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 13 1
192 In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1469230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8530769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
193 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44153846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5584615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
194 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7324999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
195 By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3830769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6169230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
196 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8146153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
197 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.955,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
198 Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 13 1
199 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 13 1
200 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4026666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5973333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
201 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11076923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8892307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 13 1
202 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9158333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 13 1
203 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9466666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 13 1
204 If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
205 Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5075757575757576,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 33 12 1
206 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8583333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
207 If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4310526315789474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5689473684210526,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 19 12 1
208 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5246666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4753333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
209 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8683333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1316666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
210 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33461538461538465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
211 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3707692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6292307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
212 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.696923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.303076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
213 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5107142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4892857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
214 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
215 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24333333333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
216 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6083333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
217 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
218 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03833333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9616666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
219 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3358333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6641666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
220 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8175,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
221 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9235714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
222 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6315384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3684615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 13 1
223 There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
224 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013076923076923076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9869230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
225 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
226 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.027333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9726666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
227 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21076923076923082,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
228 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 12 1
229 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04642857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9535714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
230 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.007931034482758621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9920689655172413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 29 12 1
231 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14333333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8566666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
232 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4607142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5392857142857144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
233 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46692307692307694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.533076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 12 1
234 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07714285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9228571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
235 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8407142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 12 1
236 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.006,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 12 1
237 North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 12 1
238 The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 26 11 1
239 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7525,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
240 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
241 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8921428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
242 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
243 Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6679999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 15 11 1
244 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
245 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 25 11 1
246 The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4081818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5918181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 22 11 1
247 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2809090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7190909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
248 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26272727272727275,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7372727272727273,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
249 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9458333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
250 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6592857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34071428571428575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
251 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08923076923076924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
252 "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7927272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
253 Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4753846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5246153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
254 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44083333333333335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5591666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
255 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5846153846153845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
256 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5621428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43785714285714283,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
257 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10181818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8981818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
258 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4592307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5407692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
259 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.543076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
260 some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9623076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
261 China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4307692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5692307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
262 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.024166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9758333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
263 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.40909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
264 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10285714285714287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8971428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
265 Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.20384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7961538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
266 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
267 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5269230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47307692307692306,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
268 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6866666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
269 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4314285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
270 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
271 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7783333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
272 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6836363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
273 Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.21272727272727274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7872727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
274 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23377083333333332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7662291666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 24 11 1
275 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6778571428571429,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32214285714285706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
276 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28428571428571425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7157142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
277 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5557142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4442857142857143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 11 1
278 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.29083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7091666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
279 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
280 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33090909090909093,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
281 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.43000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
282 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31384615384615383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6861538461538461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
283 Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9646153846153847,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
284 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.45307692307692304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.546923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 11 1
285 By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.0675,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
286 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.140625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.859375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 11 1
287 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38636363636363635,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6136363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
288 At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2366666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7633333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
289 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7516666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2483333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 11 1
290 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.016470588235294115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9835294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 34 11 1
291 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6481818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3518181818181819,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 11 1
292 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7791666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
293 We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17923076923076922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8207692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
294 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9290909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
295 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5690909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4309090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
296 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.060909090909090906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9390909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
297 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.958,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
298 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3346153846153846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6653846153846155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
299 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.783,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
300 A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
301 Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.261,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.739,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
302 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3681818181818182,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6318181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
303 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4107692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5892307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
304 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09357142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9064285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
305 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
306 Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2907692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7092307692307692,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
307 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27785714285714286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7221428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
308 Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.34375,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 16 10 1
309 Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.467,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5329999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
310 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
311 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13083333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8691666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
312 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.10916666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8908333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
313 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
314 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13142857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8685714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
315 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.309,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6910000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
316 WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08857142857142858,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9114285714285715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
317 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44166666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5583333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
318 EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6054545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
319 Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2963636363636364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7036363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
320 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.556,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44399999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
321 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.887,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
322 “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24600000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.754,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
323 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11461538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8853846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
324 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07416666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9258333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
325 Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.013636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9863636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
326 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.158,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.842,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
327 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
328 Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
329 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.975,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
330 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17300000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
331 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.789,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21099999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
332 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.750909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.24909090909090903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
333 Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7709999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2290000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
334 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
335 Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3463636363636363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6536363636363637,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
336 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4727272727272728,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
337 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.796,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
338 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8790909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11 10 1
339 More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.26384615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7361538461538462,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 13 10 1
340 What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9042857142857142,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 14 10 1
341 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 10 10 1
342 SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7066666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 12 10 1
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352

186
data/foretold-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,93 +1,93 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67","Foretold","[]","",2.5,2
"% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9","Foretold","[]","",5.5,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",4,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",3,2
"How many papers will cite ""Logical Induction"" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"How many papers will cite ""Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems"" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1.5,2
"By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac","Foretold","[]","",4.5,2
"Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2
"5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7.5,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7","Foretold","[]","",7,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6","Foretold","[]","",15,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889","Foretold","[]","",6,2
"How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781","Foretold","[]","",6.5,2
"Will MIRI still exist in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9233333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7,2
"How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131","Foretold","[]","",8,2
"How many papers will cite ""Embedded Agency"" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de","Foretold","[]","",7,2
"What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406","Foretold","[]","",2.5,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5033333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7866666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14666666666666672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23333333333333328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5.5,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee","Foretold","[]","",6,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",6,2
"At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2
"Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",8,2
"At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d","Foretold","[]","",15,2
"Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",9.5,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507","Foretold","[]","",27,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463","Foretold","[]","",49.5,2
"When will the outbreak end?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70","Foretold","[]","",25.5,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930","Foretold","[]","",2,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8","Foretold","[]","",3.5,2
"How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d","Foretold","[]","",4.5,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea","Foretold","[]","",3.5,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826","Foretold","[]","",6.5,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2
"How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"Will Labour win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",7,2
"Will Conservatives win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",9.5,2
"If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",2,2
"If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91","Foretold","[]","",5,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2
"Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",3.5,2
"If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",3.5,2
"When will the next UK general election be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d","Foretold","[]","",4,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",1,2
"If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",11.5,2
"Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba","Foretold","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",5,2
"What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126","Foretold","[]","",1,2
"If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8","Foretold","[]","",3,2
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
"% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9","Foretold","","[]",5.5,,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",4,,2
"A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Logical Induction"" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems"" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1.5,,2
"By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
"Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7.5,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
"How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
"Will MIRI still exist in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9233333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
"How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131","Foretold","","[]",8,,2
"How many papers will cite ""Embedded Agency"" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
"What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5033333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7866666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14666666666666672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23333333333333328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",6,,2
"At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",8,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
"Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507","Foretold","","[]",27,,2
"At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463","Foretold","","[]",49.5,,2
"When will the outbreak end?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70","Foretold","","[]",25.5,,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
"How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
"By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"Will Labour win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
"Will Conservatives win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
"If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
"If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
"If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
"When will the next UK general election be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
"If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11.5,,2
"Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
"What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
"If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
"What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67 Foretold [] 2.5 2
3 % global rate of "$1.90 a day" poverty in 2030 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9 Foretold [] 5.5 2
4 A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4 2
5 A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3 2
6 How many papers will cite "Logical Induction" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde Foretold [] 2 2
7 How many papers will cite "Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573 Foretold [] 1 2
8 Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1.5 2
9 By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac Foretold [] 4.5 2
10 Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.695,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30500000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
11 5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022 https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.245,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.755,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7.5 2
12 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10 Foretold [] 2 2
13 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d Foretold [] 4 2
14 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7 Foretold [] 7 2
15 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd Foretold [] 1 2
16 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620 Foretold [] 1 2
17 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14 Foretold [] 2 2
18 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924 Foretold [] 2 2
19 How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6 Foretold [] 15 2
20 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d Foretold [] 3 2
21 How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4 Foretold [] 2 2
22 What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df Foretold [] 5 2
23 What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889 Foretold [] 6 2
24 How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781 Foretold [] 6.5 2
25 Will MIRI still exist in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9233333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.07666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7 2
26 How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893 Foretold [] 2 2
27 Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
28 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131 Foretold [] 8 2
29 How many papers will cite "Embedded Agency" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de Foretold [] 7 2
30 What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a Foretold [] 3 2
31 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406 Foretold [] 2.5 2
32 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a Foretold [] 4 2
33 When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc Foretold [] 5 2
34 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534 Foretold [] 4 2
35 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b Foretold [] 5 2
36 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53 Foretold [] 4 2
37 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
38 Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8166666666666668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18333333333333324,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
39 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
40 Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.49666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5033333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
41 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7866666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.21333333333333326,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
42 Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8533333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.14666666666666672,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
43 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7666666666666667,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.23333333333333328,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
44 Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16666666666666674,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5.5 2
45 What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee Foretold [] 6 2
46 What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353 Foretold [] 4 2
47 What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f Foretold [] 5 2
48 At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17500000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
49 How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b Foretold [] 5 2
50 At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41000000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 6 2
51 At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.42500000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
52 At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
53 Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 8 2
54 At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d Foretold [] 15 2
55 Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 9.5 2
56 At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507 Foretold [] 27 2
57 At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463 Foretold [] 49.5 2
58 When will the outbreak end? https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70 Foretold [] 25.5 2
59 By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4 Foretold [] 2 2
60 By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930 Foretold [] 2 2
61 By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8 Foretold [] 3.5 2
62 How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8 Foretold [] 3 2
63 By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb Foretold [] 1 2
64 By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7 Foretold [] 1 2
65 By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570 Foretold [] 1 2
66 By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce Foretold [] 1 2
67 By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000 Foretold [] 1 2
68 By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483 Foretold [] 1 2
69 How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d Foretold [] 4.5 2
70 By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea Foretold [] 3.5 2
71 By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b Foretold [] 5 2
72 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826 Foretold [] 6.5 2
73 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1 Foretold [] 3 2
74 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09 Foretold [] 3 2
75 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
76 If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
77 How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878 Foretold [] 1 2
78 Will Labour win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7 2
79 Will Conservatives win the next election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 9.5 2
80 If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2 2
81 If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
82 What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91 Foretold [] 5 2
83 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
84 Will Brexit be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3.5 2
85 If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3.5 2
86 When will the next UK general election be? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d Foretold [] 4 2
87 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 2
88 If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3 Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6799999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 11.5 2
89 Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba Foretold [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 2
90 What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec Foretold [] 3 2
91 If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126 Foretold [] 1 2
92 If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313 Foretold [] 3 2
93 What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024? https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8 Foretold [] 3 2

328
data/givewellopenphil-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,164 +1,164 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",,2
"Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support",,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019",,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020",,2
"Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign",,2
"Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",,2
"Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",,2
"Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017",,2
"Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017",,2
"Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",,2
"We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",,2
"Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support",,2
"Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017",,2
"Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Actual estimate was ""small probability, close to 0%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Actual estimate was ""<10%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2016","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"New Incentives still operates in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)",,2
"We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)",,2
"No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)",,2
"We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",,2
"An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",,2
"The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",,2
"GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)",,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)",,2
"The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers",,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")",,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")",,2
"Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")",,2
"Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")",,2
"Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")",,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey",,2
"This grant does not lead to any new top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",,2
"The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",,2
"Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023",,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",,2
"By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)",,2
"We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019",,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",,2
"The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020",,2
"We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",,2
"The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024",,2
"We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",,2
"Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",,2
"Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation",,2
"Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",,2
"Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",,2
"The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.",,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023",,2
"Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant",,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021",,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020",,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020",,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021",,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021",,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups",,2
"We recommend a second grant to CPSP","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support",,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to IGI","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",,2
"IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021",,2
"At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)",,2
"Fortify Health becomes a top charity.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022",,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020",,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",,2
"Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",,2
"GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)",,2
"GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)",,2
"We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ",,2
"Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018",,2
"CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",,2
"CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)",,2
"We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",,2
"This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ",,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",,2
"80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ",,2
"The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ",,2
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years","https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)","https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Actual estimate was ""small probability, close to 0%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Actual estimate was ""<10%"". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2016","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives still operates in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019","https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018","https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly","https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation (""Phase 2"")","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"This grant does not lead to any new top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We recommend a second grant to CPSP","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to IGI","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health becomes a top charity.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives","https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. ","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%","https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts","GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy","Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020 https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023 https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one year https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two years https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
6 Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMF https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMF https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation) https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one year https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 months https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Actual estimate was "small probability, close to 0%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCT https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclear https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives further https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives further https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charity https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectly https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF: https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Actual estimate was "<10%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 New Incentives is a top charity in 2016 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 New Incentives is a top charity in 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 New Incentives is a top charity in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 New Incentives still operates in 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' program https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019 https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018 https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019 https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling up https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident in https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing so https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughly https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage points https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successful https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2x https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 This grant does not lead to any new top charities. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overall https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cash https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCT https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future research https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is now https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage points https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charities https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
93 The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
94 The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
95 The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
96 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
97 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
98 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
99 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
100 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
101 Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
102 The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
103 The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
104 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
105 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
106 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
107 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
108 Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Conditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
109 At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
110 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
111 Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Criticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
112 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
113 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
114 Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
115 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
116 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
117 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
118 A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
119 By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
120 By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
121 By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studies https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
122 By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
123 By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this project https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
124 By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
125 By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
126 By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
127 We recommend a second grant to CPSP https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
128 Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
129 Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
130 Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Average of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
131 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
132 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy (as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
133 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
134 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
135 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
136 Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data) https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
137 GiveWell makes another grant to IGI https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
138 IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sources https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
139 At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this research https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
140 Fortify Health becomes a top charity. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
141 Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
142 Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
143 Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
144 Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
145 Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
146 Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases. https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
147 GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in India https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
148 Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one mill https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
149 Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five mills https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
150 Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charity https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
151 GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018 https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
152 GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentives https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
153 We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
154 Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018 [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
155 CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
156 CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
157 We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one year https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
158 This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three years https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
159 80,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
160 80,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
161 80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
162 80,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
163 80,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
164 The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016% https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecasts GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy Associated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2

32
data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.",,4
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href=""https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html"" target=""_blank"">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.",,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""<a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70"" target=""_blank"">next waves</a>"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href=""https://covid19.who.int/"" target=""_blank"">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href=""https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/"" target=""_blank"">here</a> each day.",,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.",,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.",,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.",,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The <a href=""https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020"" target=""_blank"">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=""https://tokyo2020.org/en/"" target=""_blank"">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=""https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again"" target=""_blank"">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=""https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html"" target=""_blank"">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.",,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ",,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.",,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.",,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ",,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.",,4
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href=""https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html"" target=""_blank"">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""<a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70"" target=""_blank"">next waves</a>"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href=""https://covid19.who.int/"" target=""_blank"">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href=""https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/"" target=""_blank"">here</a> each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The <a href=""https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020"" target=""_blank"">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=""https://tokyo2020.org/en/"" target=""_blank"">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=""https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again"" target=""_blank"">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=""https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html"" target=""_blank"">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows" target="_blank">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the "TABLE" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for "World," and see the relevant number in the column titled "End." The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
3 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 360,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 410,000 but less than 470,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 540,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
4 As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as "<a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70" target="_blank">next waves</a>" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/" target="_blank">here</a> each day. [{"name":"Less than 275,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 300,000 but less than 350,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
5 How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083" target="_blank">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438. [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
6 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
7 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
8 When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390" target="_blank">criticized</a> for being <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP" target="_blank">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
9 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
10 When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
11 What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
12 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
13 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
14 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021. [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
15 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
16 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4

574
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,328 +1,328 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
","40",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
","54",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
","32",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
","37",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
","47",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
","90",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
","42",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
","103",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","78",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","193",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","40","31",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","47",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","32","29",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","37","33",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47","34",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","90","67",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","42","32",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","103","52",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78","35",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","193","71",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. 
","280",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","175",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","280","109",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","175","61",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.
","121",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
","68",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
","437",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","121","71",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","68","38",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","437","344",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.
","321",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
","334",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
","198",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
","230",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
","62",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
","143",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
","107",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
","109",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
","437",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
","69",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
","147",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
","177",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","321","247",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","334","298",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","198","174",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","175",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","62","24",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","143","87",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","48",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109","52",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","437","311",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","69","45",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","147","72",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","177","72",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","85",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
","191",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","166",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
","159",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","149",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","130",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
","141",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","106",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","258",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","232",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","138",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","90",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","83",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
","193",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","140",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","236",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","85","50",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","191","110",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","166","132",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","159","114",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","149","82",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","51",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141","84",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","70",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","108",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","232","139",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","138","74",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","90","55",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","61",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","193","83",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","140","88",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","236","138",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","349",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","336",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","369",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","151",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
","244",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","349","190",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","336","71",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","369","102",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","112",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","142",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","83",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","164",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","73",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
","170",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","94",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","221",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","159",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","112",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","49",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","164","89",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","73","35",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","170","79",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","44",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","221","67",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","159","64",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","65",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","258",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","240",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","105",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
","185",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","203",3
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","133",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","240","89",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","105","37",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","67",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","106",3
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","172",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","259",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","216",3
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
","326",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","107",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","166",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
","174",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","453",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
","417",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","172","117",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","259","73",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","86",3
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","326","140",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","166","81",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","61",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","453","194",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","417","211",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","275",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
","353",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","280",3
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","416",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","320",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","243",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","257",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","84",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
","390",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","103",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","75",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
","246",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
","126",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","146",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","353","225",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","280","102",3
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","416","107",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","320","104",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","125",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","257","97",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84","44",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","390","204",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","103","59",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","75","31",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","43",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","30",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","419",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","419","198",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","195",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","195","79",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","543",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","1663",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","507",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
","320",3
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","543","198",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1663","578",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","507","214",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","320","201",3
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","517",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
","220",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","517","232",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","220","123",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","316",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
","308",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","291",3
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","194",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","229",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","317",3
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
","268",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","1402",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
","284",3
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","203",3
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","316","185",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","308","165",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","88",3
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","194","113",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","229","58",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317","168",3
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","268","107",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1402","204",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","63",3
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","62",3
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.
","151",3
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","130",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","543",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","726",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","460",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","465",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
","450",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","210",3
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
","411",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
","341",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
","677",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
","1140",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","385",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","328",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","709",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","832",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","205",3
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","323",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
","630",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","43",3
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","54",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","543","151",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","726","156",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","460","213",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","465","93",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","450","67",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","65",3
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","411","159",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","341","114",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","677","200",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1140","452",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","385","160",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","328","153",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","709","166",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","832","166",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","78",3
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","323","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","630","184",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","470",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","266",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","368",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","292",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","470","96",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","55",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","368","120",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","292","107",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","274",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","836",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","274","78",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","836","286",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","291",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","138",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","636",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","636","142",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
","241",3
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","94",3
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
","251",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","234",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","251","57",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","46",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1166",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1166","173",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1977",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1977","815",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","240",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","240","110",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1063",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","291",3
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","282",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1063","462",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","82",3
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","73",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#05666964776c636c6664716c6a6b7645626a6a616f70616268606b712b666a683a7670676f6066713854706076716c6a6b203735466964776c636c6664716c6a6b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","395",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","186",3
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
","281",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","426",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","395","218",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","88",3
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","281","96",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","426","147",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","265",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","265","97",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","301",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","301","133",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 31 3
3 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021 Good Judgment Open As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 54 47 3
4 What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 32 29 3
5 Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 37 33 3
6 What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 34 3
7 Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km Good Judgment Open Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. [{"name":"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only launch an ICBM","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 90 67 3
8 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 Good Judgment Open A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 42 32 3
9 How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 Good Judgment Open On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 103 52 3
10 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 35 3
11 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 193 71 3
12 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 280 109 3
13 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 175 61 3
14 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 121 71 3
15 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts Good Judgment Open China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). [{"name":"0","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 68 38 3
16 Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations Good Judgment Open Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 437 344 3
17 For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 321 247 3
18 Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 334 298 3
19 In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law Good Judgment Open The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 198 174 3
20 How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 Good Judgment Open With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 230 175 3
21 What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 62 24 3
22 What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 143 87 3
23 What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 Good Judgment Open With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 107 48 3
24 Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 109 52 3
25 Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 437 311 3
26 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 69 45 3
27 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp Good Judgment Open Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 147 72 3
28 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa Good Judgment Open Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 177 72 3
29 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 Good Judgment Open On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 85 50 3
30 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 191 110 3
31 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 166 132 3
32 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 159 114 3
33 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 149 82 3
34 Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship Good Judgment Open The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 51 3
35 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities Good Judgment Open Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 141 84 3
36 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 106 70 3
37 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 258 108 3
38 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. [{"name":"0","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 232 139 3
39 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 138 74 3
40 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 90 55 3
41 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 61 3
42 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 193 83 3
43 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 140 88 3
44 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 236 138 3
45 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 349 190 3
46 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 336 71 3
47 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 369 102 3
48 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 151 112 3
49 Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 244 142 3
50 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 49 3
51 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 164 89 3
52 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 73 35 3
53 When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 170 79 3
54 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 94 44 3
55 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 221 67 3
56 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 159 64 3
57 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 65 3
58 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 258 133 3
59 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 240 89 3
60 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 105 37 3
61 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 185 67 3
62 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 203 106 3
63 Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia Good Judgment Open Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Nicaragua","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"St. Lucia","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will be a draw","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 172 117 3
64 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 259 73 3
65 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 216 86 3
66 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 326 140 3
67 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 107 76 3
68 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 166 81 3
69 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 174 61 3
70 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 453 194 3
71 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 417 211 3
72 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 275 146 3
73 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 353 225 3
74 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 280 102 3
75 Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research Good Judgment Open Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 416 107 3
76 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 320 104 3
77 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 243 125 3
78 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 257 97 3
79 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 44 3
80 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 390 204 3
81 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 103 59 3
82 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 75 31 3
83 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 246 43 3
84 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 126 30 3
85 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 419 198 3
86 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 195 79 3
87 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 543 198 3
88 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1663 578 3
89 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 507 214 3
90 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 320 201 3
91 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 517 232 3
92 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 220 123 3
93 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 316 185 3
94 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 308 165 3
95 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 291 88 3
96 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 194 113 3
97 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 229 58 3
98 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 317 168 3
99 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 268 107 3
100 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1402 204 3
101 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 284 63 3
102 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 203 62 3
103 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 151 43 3
104 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 54 3
105 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 543 151 3
106 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 726 156 3
107 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 460 213 3
108 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 465 93 3
109 When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 450 67 3
110 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 210 65 3
111 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 411 159 3
112 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). [{"name":"England","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 341 114 3
113 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 677 200 3
114 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1140 452 3
115 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 385 160 3
116 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 328 153 3
117 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 709 166 3
118 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 832 166 3
119 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 205 78 3
120 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 323 76 3
121 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 630 184 3
122 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 470 96 3
123 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 266 55 3
124 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 368 120 3
125 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 292 107 3
126 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). [{"name":"0","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 274 78 3
127 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 836 286 3
128 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 291 138 3
129 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 636 142 3
130 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 241 94 3
131 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 251 57 3
132 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 46 3
133 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1166 173 3
134 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1977 815 3
135 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 240 110 3
136 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1063 462 3
137 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 291 82 3
138 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 282 73 3
139 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#05666964776c636c6664716c6a6b7645626a6a616f70616268606b712b666a683a7670676f6066713854706076716c6a6b203735466964776c636c6664716c6a6b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 395 218 3
140 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 186 88 3
141 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 281 96 3
142 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 426 147 3
143 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 265 97 3
144 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 301 133 3
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328

102
data/hypermind-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,35 +1,35 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6037735849056604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9223300970873787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.05825242718446602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.11111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26262626262626265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.37373737373737376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.24242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207920792079207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.4476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.11428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>",,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.19626168224299065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.10280373831775702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.31683168316831684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02752293577981652,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.6422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.25688073394495414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.07339449541284404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6037735849056604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9223300970873787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.05825242718446602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.11111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26262626262626265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.37373737373737376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.24242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207920792079207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.4476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.11428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.19626168224299065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.10280373831775702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.31683168316831684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02752293577981652,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.6422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.25688073394495414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.07339449541284404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)
@ -37,8 +37,8 @@ The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 an
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
",,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.
","[]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
@ -46,8 +46,8 @@ The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 an
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
",,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4.
","[]",,,3
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
@ -55,30 +55,30 @@ The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 an
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
",,3
"As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
","[]",,,3
"As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",,3
"As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
","[]",,,3
"As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",,3
"As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
","[]",,,3
"As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
","[]",,,3
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,3
"When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","[]","This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's ""primary"" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).*
","[]",,,3
"When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's ""primary"" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).*
The relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (""no measures"") rises at 45 or more in the ""7 days average"" version of the graph.
If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of ""no measures for workplace closures."" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.
*For this question, ""no measures for workplace closures"" will correspond to a 0 for the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..
",,3
","[]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. [{"name":"Yes, more than 121","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, not more than 121","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.02912621359223301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.03883495145631068,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.14563106796116507,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5436893203883496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.04854368932038835,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14563106796116507,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6037735849056604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.11320754716981131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.2358490566037736,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.04716981132075472,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9705882352941175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.9223300970873787,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.05825242718446602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.01941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H [{"name":"France","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Japan","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same medals count","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.010101010101010102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.11111111111111112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.26262626262626265,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.37373737373737376,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.24242424242424243,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind To be considered "deadly", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07920792079207921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9207920792079207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". [{"name":"Saad-Eddine El Othmani","probability":0.15533980582524273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelilah Benkirane","probability":0.07766990291262137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else from PJD","probability":0.01941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else not from PJD","probability":0.7475728155339806,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats. [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.030303030303030304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696969696969697,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Denis Sassou Nguesso","probability":0.9428571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mathias Dzon","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Idriss Déby Itno","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Saleh Kezabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Succès Masra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... [{"name":"Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed","probability":0.9313725490196079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abshir Aden Ferro","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharif Sheikh Ahmed","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.2857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.4476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.11428571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.13333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.19626168224299065,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.6542056074766356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.10280373831775702,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.31683168316831684,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.15841584158415842,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.3465346534653465,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.02752293577981652,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.6422018348623854,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.25688073394495414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.07339449541284404,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8811881188118812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.06930693069306931,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind [{"name":"In 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q1, 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate. [] 3
33 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate. [] 3
34 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate. [] 3
35 As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications. [] 3
37 As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications. [] 3
38 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
39 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
40 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO. [] 3
41 When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's "primary" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* The relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line ("no measures") rises at 45 or more in the "7 days average" version of the graph. If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of "no measures for workplace closures." If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved. *For this question, "no measures for workplace closures" will correspond to a 0 for the "C2_Workplace closing" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the "C2_Workplace closing" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C.. [] 3
42
43
44
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

124
data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

5742
data/metaculus-questions.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

28427
data/metaforecasts.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

8
data/omen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.988630113034544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.011369886965456032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3054643135991191,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6945356864008809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07926841630113293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207315836988671,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,1
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.988630113034544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.011369886965456032,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,1
"Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c","Omen","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3054643135991191,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6945356864008809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,1
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07926841630113293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207315836988671,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,1
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.988630113034544,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.011369886965456032,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
3 Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3054643135991191,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6945356864008809,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1
4 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb Omen [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07926841630113293,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9207315836988671,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1

66
data/polymarket-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,44 +1,44 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8210843425606883932577026603711056"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1789156574393116067422973396288944"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ","86",4
"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04230439517024041202188761379533177"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9576956048297595879781123862046682"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).
","136",3
"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.590714245983359374033906060938728"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.409285754016640625966093939061272"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1098",4
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9404923421274491912575869598563209"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05950765787255080874241304014367906"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","1211",3
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9000917694479315732807625228160966"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.0999082305520684267192374771839034"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","746",3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"[]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",,
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2653722700132592071193972157990358"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7346277299867407928806027842009642"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","98",4
"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7298930612036890560025667805575824"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2701069387963109439974332194424176"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","85",4
"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.35432149199383195961631776417634"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.64567850800616804038368223582366"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","821",4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01154405211189743827135156638705084"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9884559478881025617286484336129492"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8210843425606883932577026603711056"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1789156574393116067422973396288944"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86",,4
"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04230439517024041202188761379533177"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9576956048297595879781123862046682"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","136",,3
"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.590714245983359374033906060938728"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.409285754016640625966093939061272"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1098",,4
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9404923421274491912575869598563209"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05950765787255080874241304014367906"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1211",,3
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9000917694479315732807625228160966"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.0999082305520684267192374771839034"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","746",,3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2653722700132592071193972157990358"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7346277299867407928806027842009642"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","98",,4
"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7298930612036890560025667805575824"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2701069387963109439974332194424176"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","85",,4
"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.35432149199383195961631776417634"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.64567850800616804038368223582366"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","821",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3810",3
"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3992180768566974816348527785427362"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6007819231433025183651472214572638"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","40",4
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5186374815653130703780627007855618"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4813625184346869296219372992144382"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01154405211189743827135156638705084"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9884559478881025617286484336129492"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3810",,3
"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3992180768566974816348527785427362"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6007819231433025183651472214572638"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","40",,4
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","180",4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05235204328927104384398080690325785"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9476479567107289561560191930967421"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5186374815653130703780627007855618"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4813625184346869296219372992144382"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","180",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","460",3
"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7645639315269544210625576398861445"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2354360684730455789374423601138555"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05235204328927104384398080690325785"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9476479567107289561560191930967421"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","460",,3
"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
","186",4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08639576439906160345569679883924252"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9136042356009383965443032011607575"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","296",3
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07912744676147613200988215797057122"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9208725532385238679901178420294288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","61",3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6378336067386002818693056840263355"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3621663932613997181306943159736645"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7645639315269544210625576398861445"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2354360684730455789374423601138555"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186",,4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08639576439906160345569679883924252"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9136042356009383965443032011607575"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","296",,3
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07912744676147613200988215797057122"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9208725532385238679901178420294288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","61",,3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","4879",4
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1710012762395096492854638276142472"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8289987237604903507145361723857528"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","39",4
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.580310119601644467086386388930093"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.419689880398355532913613611069907"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6378336067386002818693056840263355"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3621663932613997181306943159736645"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4879",,4
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1710012762395096492854638276142472"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8289987237604903507145361723857528"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","39",,4
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","408",4
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2369102904781910210045405816592945"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7630897095218089789954594183407055"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","1264",4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3822268185332019571567270535991622"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.4841158144450835226246633130930288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1336573670217145202186096333078089"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","129",4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05895633696239021853329046475585481"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9410436630376097814667095352441452"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","73",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.580310119601644467086386388930093"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.419689880398355532913613611069907"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","408",,4
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2369102904781910210045405816592945"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7630897095218089789954594183407055"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1264",,4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3822268185332019571567270535991622"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.4841158144450835226246633130930288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1336573670217145202186096333078089"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","129",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05895633696239021853329046475585481"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9410436630376097814667095352441452"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","73",,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.8210843425606883932577026603711056","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.1789156574393116067422973396288944","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 86 4
3 Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.04230439517024041202188761379533177","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9576956048297595879781123862046682","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 136 3
4 Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.590714245983359374033906060938728","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.409285754016640625966093939061272","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1098 4
5 Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9404923421274491912575869598563209","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.05950765787255080874241304014367906","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1211 3
6 Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9000917694479315732807625228160966","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.0999082305520684267192374771839034","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 746 3
7 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. []
8 Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2653722700132592071193972157990358","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7346277299867407928806027842009642","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 98 4
9 Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Bezos","probability":"0.7298930612036890560025667805575824","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Musk","probability":"0.2701069387963109439974332194424176","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 85 4
10 Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.35432149199383195961631776417634","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.64567850800616804038368223582366","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 821 4
11 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.01154405211189743827135156638705084","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9884559478881025617286484336129492","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3810 3
12 Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3992180768566974816348527785427362","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6007819231433025183651472214572638","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 4
13 Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5186374815653130703780627007855618","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4813625184346869296219372992144382","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 180 4
14 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05235204328927104384398080690325785","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9476479567107289561560191930967421","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 460 3
15 Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7645639315269544210625576398861445","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2354360684730455789374423601138555","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 186 4
16 Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed PolyMarket This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.08639576439906160345569679883924252","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9136042356009383965443032011607575","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 296 3
17 Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.07912744676147613200988215797057122","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9208725532385238679901178420294288","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 61 3
18 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6378336067386002818693056840263355","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3621663932613997181306943159736645","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4879 4
19 Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1710012762395096492854638276142472","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8289987237604903507145361723857528","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 39 4
20 Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.580310119601644467086386388930093","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.419689880398355532913613611069907","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 408 4
21 Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2369102904781910210045405816592945","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7630897095218089789954594183407055","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1264 4
22 Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.3822268185332019571567270535991622","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.4841158144450835226246633130930288","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.1336573670217145202186096333078089","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 129 4
23 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05895633696239021853329046475585481","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9410436630376097814667095352441452","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 73 3
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

414
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,49 +1,49 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.29090909090909095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6454545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.29090909090909095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6454545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -52,65 +52,65 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.
",,3
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.07499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.07499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -122,137 +122,137 @@ Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)
Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
",,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
","[{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.13861386138613863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.13861386138613863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.29090909090909084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.29090909090909084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23853211009174305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.13761467889908252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.06422018348623852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.036697247706422007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23853211009174305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.13761467889908252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.06422018348623852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.036697247706422007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22772277227722773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3364485981308411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.26168224299065423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.05607476635514018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22772277227722773,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3364485981308411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.26168224299065423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.05607476635514018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Julia Letlow"",""probability"":0.8999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candy Christophe"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Davis"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Allen Guillory Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chad Conerly"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lansden"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jaycee Magnuson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Horace Melton III"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vinny Mendoza"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Pannell"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sancha Smith"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Errol Victor Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.495798319327731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.38655462184873945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.01680672268907563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
","[{""name"":""Julia Letlow"",""probability"":0.8999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candy Christophe"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Davis"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Allen Guillory Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chad Conerly"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Lansden"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jaycee Magnuson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Horace Melton III"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vinny Mendoza"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Pannell"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sancha Smith"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Errol Victor Sr."",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.495798319327731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.38655462184873945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.01680672268907563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5181818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
@ -263,25 +263,25 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
",,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5181818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6237623762376238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6237623762376238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.8878504672897195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@ -295,23 +295,23 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET)
NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.
Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.31249999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.15178571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.03571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.8878504672897195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.31249999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.15178571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.03571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
@ -325,66 +325,66 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
",,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12380952380952379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10476190476190474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07619047619047617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.9166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 52"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""53 to 55"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 to 58"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""59 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12380952380952379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10476190476190474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07619047619047617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6470588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.17307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6470588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.17307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.34313725490196073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.34313725490196073,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5925925925925924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.1296296296296296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5925925925925924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.1296296296296296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET)
@ -393,8 +393,8 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
",,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
@ -404,8 +404,8 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released.
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@ -419,51 +419,51 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/08/2021 9:28 AM (ET)
NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.
Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.
",,3
"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.
Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5504587155963302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12844036697247707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.10091743119266054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5490196078431373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5504587155963302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12844036697247707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.10091743119266054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5490196078431373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.9519230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raúl Grijalva"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley-Braun"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021.
","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Secretary of the Interior by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.8867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Deb Haaland"",""probability"":0.9519230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Udall"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Bullock"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heinrich"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raúl Grijalva"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carol Moseley-Braun"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
@ -471,34 +471,34 @@ And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Bu
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.8867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6634615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6634615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.
@ -512,55 +512,55 @@ Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
",,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.30392156862745096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.30392156862745096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.9117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.2647058823529412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.9117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,3
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.2647058823529412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5192307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4423076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5346534653465347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4653465346534653,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.29090909090909095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.6454545454545455,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009090909090909092,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5800000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8910891089108911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8811881188118812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.4666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.22499999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.07499999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.06666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.04999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.024999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.024999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.016666666666666663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5800000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6078431372549019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.39215686274509803,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules [{"name":"Ertharin Cousin","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Schrayer","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frederick Barton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Konyndyk","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barsa","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ami Bera","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Samantha Power","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gayle Smith","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer Carroll Foy","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer McClellan","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Fairfax","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.3465346534653465,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.26732673267326734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.13861386138613863,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.039603960396039604,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.4454545454545453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.29090909090909084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.04545454545454544,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.04545454545454544,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.04545454545454544,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.027272727272727264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.018181818181818177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.009090909090909089,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.5046728971962617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.21495327102803738,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.16822429906542055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.08411214953271028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
33 Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
34 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.23853211009174305,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.13761467889908252,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.09174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.09174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.06422018348623852,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.05504587155963301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.04587155963302751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.04587155963302751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.04587155963302751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.036697247706422007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.018348623853211003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.018348623853211003,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
35 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
36 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"33 or fewer","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or 41","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42 or 43","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
37 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.24038461538461536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.09615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.07692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
38 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
39 Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
40 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
41 Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
42 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.17000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
43 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
44 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.7722772277227723,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.22772277227722773,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
45 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.3364485981308411,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.26168224299065423,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.2336448598130841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.05607476635514018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.02803738317757009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
46 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
47 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
48 Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
49 Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
52 Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Lenín Moreno","probability":0.8952380952380952,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Ortega","probability":0.02857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Francisco Sagasti","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sebastián Piñera","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iván Duque","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. M. López Obrador","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Fernández","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luis Arce","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolás Maduro","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
53 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
54 Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are "Xi", "Suga", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. [{"name":"Hassan Rouhani","probability":0.5181818181818181,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.24545454545454545,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Morrison","probability":0.09999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Jong-un","probability":0.054545454545454536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.03636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Moon Jae-in","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Narendra Modi","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joko Widodo","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
55 Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.10999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
56 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6237623762376238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.37623762376237624,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
57 How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"67 or fewer","probability":0.18095238095238095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.15238095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.19047619047619047,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.19999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.15238095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.07619047619047618,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
58 How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "82 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.02803738317757009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 53","probability":0.8878504672897195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54 to 57","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"58 to 61","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 65","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 69","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70 to 73","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 77","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 to 81","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"82 or more","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
59 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Alvin Bragg","probability":0.3214285714285714,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tali Weinstein","probability":0.31249999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tahanie Aboushi","probability":0.15178571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eliza Orlins","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Quart","probability":0.03571428571428571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lucy Lang","probability":0.02678571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyrus Vance","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Florence","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Crotty","probability":0.008928571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
60 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
61 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
62 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
63 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
64 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
65 How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
66 Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Suga Yoshihide","probability":0.4285714285714285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.12380952380952379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau","probability":0.10476190476190474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.07619047619047617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.06666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro","probability":0.06666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.04761904761904761,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.038095238095238085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping","probability":0.019047619047619042,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
67 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tim Ryan","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Acton","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joyce Beatty","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nan Whaley","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emilia Sykes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
68 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.6470588235294118,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.12745098039215685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.12745098039215685,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.06862745098039216,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
69 How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.08653846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.06730769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.11538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.23076923076923075,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.23076923076923075,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.17307692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
70 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ryan Costello","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Reschenthaler","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Everett Stern","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlie Dent","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
71 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
72 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6568627450980392,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.34313725490196073,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
73 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4752475247524752,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
74 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.5925925925925924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.1296296296296296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.0648148148148148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.0648148148148148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.03703703703703703,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.02777777777777777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.018518518518518514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.009259259259259257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.009259259259259257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.009259259259259257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.009259259259259257,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
75 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
76 How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The "next status report" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. [{"name":"Fewer than 1M","probability":0.11320754716981131,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1M to 1.05M","probability":0.23584905660377356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.05M to 1.1M","probability":0.25471698113207547,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.1M to 1.15M","probability":0.14150943396226415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.15M to 1.2M","probability":0.08490566037735849,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.2M to 1.25M","probability":0.056603773584905655,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.25M to 1.3M","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.3M to 1.35M","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.35M to 1.4M","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.4M or more","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
77 How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Haaland be confirmed to position of Secretary of the Interior in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "66 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Haaland to the position of Secretary of the Interior be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/08/2021 9:28 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 or 51","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"52 or 53","probability":0.34615384615384615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54 or 55","probability":0.5384615384615385,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 or 57","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"58 or 59","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 or 61","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 or 63","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"64 or 65","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 or more","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
78 Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
79 How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.13084112149532712,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.04672897196261682,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.11214953271028036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.18691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.2336448598130841,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.1588785046728972,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.09345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
80 Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
81 Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
82 Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.5504587155963302,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrej Babiš","probability":0.12844036697247707,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Rutte","probability":0.10091743119266054,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mario Draghi","probability":0.06422018348623854,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Lukashenko","probability":0.03669724770642201,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pedro Sánchez","probability":0.03669724770642201,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.027522935779816512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin","probability":0.018348623853211007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Viktor Orbán","probability":0.018348623853211007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.018348623853211007,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
83 Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yonhy Lescano","probability":0.5490196078431373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rafael López Aliaga","probability":0.20588235294117646,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Forsyth","probability":0.10784313725490197,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Verónika Mendoza","probability":0.049019607843137254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keiko Fujimori","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hernando de Soto","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Urresti","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"César Acuña","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alberto Beingolea","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julio Guzmán","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ollanta Humala","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Salaverry","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
84 How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"67 or fewer","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 or more","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
85 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7148/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Secretary of the Interior following launch of this market on March 1, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Secretary of the Interior by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Deb Haaland","probability":0.9519230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Udall","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Bullock","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heinrich","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raúl Grijalva","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carol Moseley-Braun","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
86 How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"11 or 12","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13 or 14","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15 or 16","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17 or 18","probability":0.8867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19 or 20","probability":0.0660377358490566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21 or 22","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
87 How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "61 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "86 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"61 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.03773584905660377,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.08490566037735849,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.1509433962264151,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.20754716981132074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.23584905660377356,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.18867924528301888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 or more","probability":0.0660377358490566,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
88 Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Susan Wright","probability":0.6634615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jana Sanchez","probability":0.18269230769230768,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Harrison","probability":0.04807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jake Ellzey","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Rodimer","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katrina Pierson","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sery Kim","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lydia Bean","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shawn Lassiter","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
89 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Lorena González","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colleen Echohawk","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bruce Harrell","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lance Randall","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenny Durkan","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
90 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Nicholas Burns","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Shambaugh","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlene Barshefsky","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Claire McCaskill","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Kritenbrink","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rahm Emanuel","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
91 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Doug Collins","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Herschel Walker","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Carr","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kelly Loeffler","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Perdue","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoff Duncan","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Kemp","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
92 Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically. Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market: * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded [{"name":"New Hampshire","probability":0.7636363636363636,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nevada","probability":0.09090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"South Carolina","probability":0.09090909090909091,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iowa","probability":0.054545454545454536,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
93 Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31999999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
94 Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
95 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Eric Schmitt","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Greitens","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jason Smith","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann Wagner","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Kehoe","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Ashcroft","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Billy Long","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Blunt","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carl Edwards","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
96 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Mark Walker","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lara Trump","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Budd","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat McCrory","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Forest","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burr","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Meadows","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
97 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
98 Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1 PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
99 How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"38 or fewer","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"39","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"41","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42","probability":0.923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"43","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
100 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.049019607843137254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.058823529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.0784313725490196,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.08823529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.09803921568627451,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.10784313725490197,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.09803921568627451,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.09803921568627451,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.30392156862745096,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
101 Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
102 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
103 Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.9117647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.08823529411764705,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
104 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.3627450980392157,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.2647058823529412,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.16666666666666669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.0784313725490196,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.06862745098039216,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.029411764705882353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566

276
data/smarkets-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,139 +1,139 @@
"title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005626942134878643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018224573780129334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05416981607457798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.36197194927353654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.073066263542454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033593684387335176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02620307382212144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.36835474930713025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05601746871588141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002771478961955152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]","",,2
"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.09840810419681621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8911515402108745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",,2
"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.014930944382232175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007838745800671891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08883911907428144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.14356103023516237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010675625233296003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.021948488241881295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020754012691302722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028742067935796936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06786114221724523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03732736095558044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.045240761478163485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007465472191116087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.05531914893617021,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2132885405001866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2
"NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",,2
"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04392129304286718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06271960646521434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08784258608573436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.18692902319044274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6185874912157414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.05174376487633241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.07389009624340268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0985201283245369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.08279002380213185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.12315016040567113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.11249094484114663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Truss"",""probability"":0.055986753596191666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thérèse Coffey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.15223015626616995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Eustice"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alister Jack"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Hart"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Baroness Evans of Bowes Park"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oliver Dowden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Milling"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",,2
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5392534240444007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18646495389848716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04592247784441859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06391549547936622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.034464237758481786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04475875033569063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,2
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.241490404818602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10379604986692814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10771816781061774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.07185880375402717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.07003782042302843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14595881776159125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.06093290376803474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07367978708502591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04664518840173694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005626942134878643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018224573780129334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05416981607457798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.36197194927353654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.073066263542454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033593684387335176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02620307382212144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.36835474930713025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05601746871588141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002771478961955152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.09840810419681621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8911515402108745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Jeremy Corbyn"",""probability"":0.014930944382232175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Farage"",""probability"":0.007838745800671891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jo Swinson"",""probability"":0.08883911907428144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keir Starmer"",""probability"":0.14356103023516237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.010675625233296003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.024860022396416572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.021948488241881295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Grieve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.041508025382605444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.020754012691302722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Watson"",""probability"":0.016200074654721907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.028742067935796936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06786114221724523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.03732736095558044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.03553564762971257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ken Clarke"",""probability"":0.045240761478163485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harriet Harman"",""probability"":0.007465472191116087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Beckett"",""probability"":0.05531914893617021,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2132885405001866,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"NY-22 Congressional District Winner","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6297324817180413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.3702675182819587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.04392129304286718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.06271960646521434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.08784258608573436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.18692902319044274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024 or later"",""probability"":0.6185874912157414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets","","[{""probability"":0.07764344119085889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.04822139911943532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17471521420085262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.09986721643720735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2729750506674121,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3265776783842337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.05174376487633241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.07389009624340268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0985201283245369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.08279002380213185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.12315016040567113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.11249094484114663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Truss"",""probability"":0.055986753596191666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thérèse Coffey"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.15223015626616995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Eustice"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.07958191037979924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alister Jack"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Hart"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Baroness Evans of Bowes Park"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oliver Dowden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Milling"",""probability"":0.04501707544240919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5392534240444007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18646495389848716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04592247784441859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06391549547936622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.034464237758481786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04475875033569063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
Other candidates available on request.",,2
"Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",,2
"Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3862793572311496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2971260815822003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3165945611866502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9483313228789705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6843135336138566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31568646638614345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5932000683410217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40679993165897826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",,2
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6757322175732217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.101115760111576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.12633658763365874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.09681543468154347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request.",,2
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",,2
"Next Scottish First Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Kate Forbes"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.18447837150127228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Leonard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",,2
"French Presidential election to happen before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1252665739452944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8747334260547056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?","https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17219113215669393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8278088678433061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",,2
"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0832417307884481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9167582692115519,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",,2
"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13811678517560871,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8618832148243913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6394590446959524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36054095530404756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Japanese general election take place?",,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8455299539170507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.018433179723502304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.004608294930875576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.08018433179723501,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.051244239631336404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts available on request.",,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12773588375942616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3215927901416222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5506713260989516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",,2
"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2
"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.052059925093632956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.22294007490636703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.30702247191011234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.41797752808988764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.32843910130074894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.13312968072526607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5384312179739851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0282949233166571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.12064299188058722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5360452718773067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.22783564340195195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07455097186910523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012630197654391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin"",""probability"":0.8051441932969603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Party candidate"",""probability"":0.19485580670303976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.5904451874010205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.3792011261657575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.03035368643322189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9556486987035774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04435130129642265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5402559680493783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17454842516111463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08250884995915403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04129980938549514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10801488608514115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.053372061359716796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",,2
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",,2
"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43832661101210013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5616733889878999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.44550898203592815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5544910179640719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2
"Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2
"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5028976732116599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4971023267883401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9899030694668821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.010096930533117932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2
"Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2
"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",,2
"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0828492524521474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.2267403104466241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.284258642034092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.25740405675649936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.14874773831063706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2
"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2
"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",,2
"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",,2
"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4217184495496407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5782815504503592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2
"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Dumfriesshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5926263916773133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.40737360832268665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"East Lothian","https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6236568930977964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3034966308504826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.072846476051721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Eastwood","https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1221629442083371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6591573192572344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.21924780846451125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Edinburgh Southern","https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5527840059790732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33604260089686094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.11117339312406577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Edinburgh Western","https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8743213352101347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.12567866478986528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",,2
"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?",,2
"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.17962075432381747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8203792456761826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",,2
"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.668265240247164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33173475975283595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6760837347165617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3239162652834383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2
"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",,2
"Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Brecon and Radnorshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Caerphilly","https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Cardiff Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Cardiff North","https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Cardiff West","https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Ceredigion","https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Clwyd South","https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Gower","https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Llanelli","https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Preseli Pembrokeshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Vale of Clwyd","https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Alyn and Deeside","https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Delyn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2
Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.241490404818602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10379604986692814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10771816781061774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.07185880375402717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.07003782042302843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14595881776159125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.06093290376803474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07367978708502591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise Haigh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burgon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dawn Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Carden"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jess Phillips"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Lammy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Trickett"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Barry Gardiner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seema Malhotra"",""probability"":0.04664518840173694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jonathan Ashworth"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ed Miliband"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hilary Benn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stella Creasy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rachel Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of the next Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?","[{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.5508474576271186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.4491525423728813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3862793572311496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2971260815822003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3165945611866502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9483313228789705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6843135336138566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31568646638614345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5932000683410217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40679993165897826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6757322175732217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.101115760111576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.12633658763365874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.09681543468154347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish First Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister","Smarkets","Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Kate Forbes"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":0.4077608142493639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shirley-Anne Somerville"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Russell"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.18447837150127228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Leonard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jackson Carlaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"French Presidential election to happen before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1252665739452944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8747334260547056,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?","https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge","Smarkets","Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17219113215669393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8278088678433061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0832417307884481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9167582692115519,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13811678517560871,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8618832148243913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6394590446959524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36054095530404756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8455299539170507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.018433179723502304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.004608294930875576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.08018433179723501,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.051244239631336404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12773588375942616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3215927901416222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5506713260989516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.052059925093632956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.22294007490636703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.30702247191011234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.41797752808988764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.32843910130074894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.13312968072526607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5384312179739851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0282949233166571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.12064299188058722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5360452718773067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.22783564340195195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07455097186910523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012630197654391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin"",""probability"":0.8051441932969603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Party candidate"",""probability"":0.19485580670303976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""GERB"",""probability"":0.5904451874010205,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""BSP"",""probability"":0.3792011261657575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""ITN"",""probability"":0.03035368643322189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9556486987035774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04435130129642265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5402559680493783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17454842516111463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08250884995915403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04129980938549514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10801488608514115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.053372061359716796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43832661101210013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5616733889878999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.44550898203592815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5544910179640719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5028976732116599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4971023267883401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9899030694668821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.010096930533117932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0828492524521474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.2267403104466241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.284258642034092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.25740405675649936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.14874773831063706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?","[{""name"":""8 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4217184495496407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5782815504503592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumfriesshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5926263916773133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.40737360832268665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"East Lothian","https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6236568930977964,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.3034966308504826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.072846476051721,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Eastwood","https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4389185278958314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.1221629442083371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6591573192572344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.21924780846451125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.06079743613912715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Southern","https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5527840059790732,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.33604260089686094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.11117339312406577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Western","https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8743213352101347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.12567866478986528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.17962075432381747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8203792456761826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.668265240247164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33173475975283595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6760837347165617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3239162652834383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brecon and Radnorshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire","Smarkets","Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Caerphilly","https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly","Smarkets","Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff Central","https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff North","https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Cardiff West","https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ceredigion","https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion","Smarkets","Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Clwyd South","https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south","Smarkets","Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gower","https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower","Smarkets","Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Llanelli","https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli","Smarkets","Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Preseli Pembrokeshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire","Smarkets","Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Vale of Clwyd","https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd","Smarkets","Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alyn and Deeside","https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside","Smarkets","Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Delyn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn","Smarkets","Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03712990645192401,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009644131545954288,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025364065965859772,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.026810685697752915,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10714630147555212,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.0643263574115151,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06220464847140515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05217475166361269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.005400713665734401,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.08033561577779921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05217475166361269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07416337158838847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03857652618381715,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.01379110811071463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030089690423377377,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.022953033079371202,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009644131545954287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2967499276690134,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Gender of next Conservative leader https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson? [{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019 Smarkets [{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005626942134878643,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.018224573780129334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05416981607457798,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.36197194927353654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.073066263542454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.033593684387335176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.02620307382212144,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.36835474930713025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05601746871588141,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.002771478961955152,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader Smarkets [{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}] 2
6 Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets [{"probability":0.010336985734959687,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00010336985734959687,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.09840810419681621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8911515402108745,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05664798777381558,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9433520122261844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Jeremy Corbyn","probability":0.014930944382232175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nigel Farage","probability":0.007838745800671891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jo Swinson","probability":0.08883911907428144,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keir Starmer","probability":0.14356103023516237,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.010675625233296003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.024860022396416572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.041508025382605444,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.024860022396416572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.016200074654721907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.021948488241881295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Grieve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.041508025382605444,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.020754012691302722,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Watson","probability":0.016200074654721907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.028742067935796936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.06786114221724523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.03732736095558044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.03553564762971257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.03553564762971257,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ken Clarke","probability":0.045240761478163485,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Harriet Harman","probability":0.007465472191116087,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Beckett","probability":0.05531914893617021,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2132885405001866,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 NY-22 Congressional District Winner https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race Smarkets Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6297324817180413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.3702675182819587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Year of next General Election https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020 Smarkets [{"name":"2020","probability":0.04392129304286718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.06271960646521434,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.08784258608573436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.18692902319044274,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.6185874912157414,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Year of next Scottish referendum https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum Smarkets [{"probability":0.07764344119085889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.04822139911943532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17471521420085262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.09986721643720735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2729750506674121,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3265776783842337,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 Next Cabinet Member to leave https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave Smarkets [{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.05174376487633241,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.07389009624340268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0985201283245369,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Buckland","probability":0.08279002380213185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ben Wallace","probability":0.12315016040567113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.11249094484114663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alok Sharma","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Truss","probability":0.055986753596191666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thérèse Coffey","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.15223015626616995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Eustice","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Jenrick","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Grant Shapps","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brandon Lewis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alister Jack","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Hart","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Baroness Evans of Bowes Park","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Oliver Dowden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Milling","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Party to get the most seats https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4026069395997797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.5463557921791813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0510372682210391,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2934948492941626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7065051507058375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Year of next General Election in Hungary https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election Smarkets The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it? [{"name":"2022 or earlier","probability":0.3964413291096583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021 Smarkets [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.8477819657871846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.10505460519957474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03334299797042621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.01382043104281434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 Winner of the 2022 French presidential election https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5392534240444007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.18646495389848716,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.04592247784441859,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"François Baroin","probability":0.06391549547936622,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.034464237758481786,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.04475875033569063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olivier Faure","probability":0.04261033031957748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Marie Bigard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean Lassalle","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joachim Son-Forget","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.04261033031957748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernard Cazeneuve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arnaud Montebourg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ségolène Royal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florian Philippot","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 Macron first round vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request. [{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.241490404818602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.10379604986692814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10771816781061774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.07185880375402717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.07003782042302843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14595881776159125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.06093290376803474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.07367978708502591,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04664518840173694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 Gender of the next Labour leader https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first? [{"name":"Female","probability":0.5508474576271186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Male","probability":0.4491525423728813,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 Year of next General Election to take place in Israel https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election Smarkets [{"name":"2020","probability":0.03763359927743489,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.7307692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.23159716995333432,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 First Minister to leave the Cabinet? https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go Smarkets With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? [{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.4085036637099884,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.5914963362900116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 Keir Starmer exit date https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date Smarkets When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party? [{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.3862793572311496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2971260815822003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3165945611866502,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 2021 London mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9483313228789705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.025130679533574583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.00010052271813429834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00010052271813429834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.025130679533574583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00010052271813429834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.00010052271813429834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0010052271813429834,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences Smarkets Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3167398244213887,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6832601755786113,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.6843135336138566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.31568646638614345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7560150032019028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24398499679809715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021 Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.915064401717379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.01437371663244353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01866716445771887,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05189471719245845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp Smarkets Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5910243407707911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.26411426639621366,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08451656524678837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06034482758620689,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Local elections highest vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share Smarkets Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5932000683410217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.40679993165897826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Simon Coveney","probability":0.6757322175732217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paschal Donohoe","probability":0.101115760111576,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Helen McEntee","probability":0.12633658763365874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josepha Madigan","probability":0.09681543468154347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Harris","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Humphreys","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eoghan Murphy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charles Flanagan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Kyne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Bruton","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kehoe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heydon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe McHugh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Ring","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Creed","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colm Brophy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 Irish reunification referendum before 2023 https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023 Smarkets Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17627357659086904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8237264234091309,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 Next Scottish First Minister https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister Smarkets Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request. [{"name":"Kate Forbes","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley-Anne Somerville","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Russell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.18447837150127228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Leonard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jackson Carlaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 French Presidential election to happen before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1252665739452944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8747334260547056,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge? https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge Smarkets Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17219113215669393,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8278088678433061,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken Smarkets Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0832417307884481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9167582692115519,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021 Smarkets Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13811678517560871,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8618832148243913,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022 Smarkets Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16540927951716333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8345907204828368,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 Next Fianna Fáil leader https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin Smarkets Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Jim O'Callaghan","probability":0.39789438502673796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael McGrath","probability":0.3410762032085562,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dara Calleary","probability":0.2610294117647059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas Byrne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Niall Collins","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Lawless","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul McAuliffe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darragh O'Brien","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norma Foley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Troy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McGuinness","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jack Chambers","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Browne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Rabbitte","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seán Ó Fearghail","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eamon O'Cuiv","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref Smarkets [{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election? https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6394590446959524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36054095530404756,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Next general election overall majority https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority Smarkets Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.42750430951924917,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.32570388814403367,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.24248228308753111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.0043095192491859795,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Date of next Japanese general election https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election Smarkets When will the next Japanese general election take place? [{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Belarus to have a General Election in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Joe Biden to serve full term https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term Smarkets Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5384764489242101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.46152355107578985,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 2024 Democratic presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.3583343785275304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.3743885613947071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05230151762197416,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08365734353442869,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04640662235043271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06271165182490906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020945691709519626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.0012542330364981814,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 2024 Republican presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.29622716971070523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.022263698173576853,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.031729102786295156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06345820557259031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.028929476069857348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.055592587654979334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.1586455139314758,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.026663111585121982,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.05799226769764031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.0833222237035062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04599386748433542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.10251966404479403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 2024 US presidential winner https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner Smarkets Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.15712956501511977,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.2194696441032798,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.15305885089555707,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.026401488718306578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.011630611770179109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.04477785531518957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06838799720865316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.021167713421725978,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.07757618050709465,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.07501744591765526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02907652942544777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 2021 London mayoral election second place https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place Smarkets Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.8455299539170507,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.018433179723502304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.004608294930875576,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.08018433179723501,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.051244239631336404,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat Smarkets Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13378808549340612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.866211914506594,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election Smarkets Contracts available on request. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 London Assembly: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority Smarkets Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021 Smarkets How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon? [{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.12773588375942616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.3215927901416222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5506713260989516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 2021 Norwegian election: Most votes https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets) [{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.46105867870332373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.31087402544111614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1368075502667214,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request. [{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 2021 Dutch election: PVV seats https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats Smarkets How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election? [{"name":"Fewer than 20","probability":0.37488097505237095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20–24","probability":0.38706912968958296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25 or more","probability":0.2380498952580461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 2021 Dutch election: Government seats https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats Smarkets How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election? [{"name":"Fewer than 65","probability":0.052059925093632956,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–69","probability":0.22294007490636703,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70–74","probability":0.30702247191011234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or more","probability":0.41797752808988764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party Smarkets Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party? [{"name":"GroenLinks","probability":0.32843910130074894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)","probability":0.13312968072526607,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)","probability":0.5384312179739851,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 Brexit Party to control any council https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09087437953417335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9091256204658267,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"0–2","probability":0.7598774124078522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.24012258759214777,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Joe Biden's first international visit https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit Smarkets Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States? [{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.730138390568939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.12207415000854263,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0341705108491372,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.10422005808986845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.00085426277122843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.0085426277122843,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 Biden approval on day 100 https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100 Smarkets What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.0282949233166571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.12064299188058722,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5360452718773067,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.22783564340195195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.07455097186910523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012630197654391865,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post Smarkets Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary Smarkets Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3994252873563218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6005747126436781,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021 Smarkets [{"name":"GERB","probability":0.5904451874010205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"BSP","probability":0.3792011261657575,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"ITN","probability":0.03035368643322189,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share Smarkets What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.32353451266042316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45.0–49.9%","probability":0.4250780437044745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50% or over","probability":0.2513874436351023,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July? https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july Smarkets Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.724179585262734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.27582041473726593,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 London elections: In-person voting https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting Smarkets Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only? [{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9556486987035774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04435130129642265,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 $2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days Smarkets Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021 Smarkets Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5402559680493783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.17454842516111463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.08250884995915403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.04129980938549514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.10801488608514115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.053372061359716796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 Trump to create new political party https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party Smarkets Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election Smarkets [{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8866338069005509,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.053735382236397025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.04204117135401566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.01758963950903644,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 2022 House of Representatives control https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections? [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3759190298863745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6240809701136256,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43832661101210013,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5616733889878999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 2022 Senate control https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control Smarkets Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.44550898203592815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5544910179640719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6005369127516779,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39946308724832214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 2022 House and Senate control https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control Smarkets Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? [{"name":"D House / D Senate","probability":0.2841289413422582,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House / R Senate","probability":0.12585872820151486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / D Senate","probability":0.2230051083318654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / R Senate","probability":0.36700722212436143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5028976732116599,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4971023267883401,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 2021 Dutch election: Most seats https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election? [{"name":"VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)","probability":0.9899030694668821,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"PVV (Party for Freedom)","probability":0.010096930533117932,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure) https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout Smarkets [{"name":"50% and below","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51-53%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54-56%","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57%+","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress Smarkets Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06661340257665035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9333865974233496,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 2021 Israeli election: Likud seats https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats Smarkets How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election? [{"name":"26 or fewer","probability":0.0828492524521474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27–28","probability":0.2267403104466241,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29–30","probability":0.284258642034092,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31–32","probability":0.25740405675649936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33 or more","probability":0.14874773831063706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election? [{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 Next G20 leader to leave https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave Smarkets Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position? [{"name":"Yoshihide Suga (Japan)","probability":0.5845854201446856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron (France)","probability":0.2107679465776294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden (United States)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)","probability":0.20464663327768506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau (Canada)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin (Russia)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping (China)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Year of next Canadian federal election https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election Smarkets When will the next Canadian federal election take place? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.4012149786925378,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17109438752380088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023 or later","probability":0.42769063378366123,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament Smarkets Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11546469808820746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8845353019117925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
93 Brian Rose vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share Smarkets What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.4217184495496407,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.5782815504503592,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
94 Aberdeenshire West https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5665742024965326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.43342579750346744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
95 Ayr https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
96 Dumbarton https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6490849447513812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.35091505524861877,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
97 Dumfriesshire https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5926263916773133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.40737360832268665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
98 East Lothian https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6236568930977964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3034966308504826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.072846476051721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
99 Eastwood https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1221629442083371,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
100 Edinburgh Central https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6591573192572344,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.21924780846451125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.06079743613912715,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.06079743613912715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
101 Edinburgh Southern https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5527840059790732,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33604260089686094,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.11117339312406577,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
102 Edinburgh Western https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
103 Galloway and West Dumfries https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
104 Glasgow Kelvin https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7601773113804958,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.07535733671069297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.16446535190881129,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
105 North East Fife https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.32412084246640616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.6758791575335938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
106 2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour) https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour Smarkets Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8743213352101347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.12567866478986528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
107 2021 Senedd election: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority Smarkets Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32688113413304254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6731188658669575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
108 Nicola Sturgeon exit date https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date Smarkets When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.17962075432381747,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8203792456761826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
109 Aberdeen South and North Kincardine https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
110 Aberdeenshire East https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.23809523809523808,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
111 Angus North and Mearns https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns Smarkets Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.668265240247164,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33173475975283595,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
112 Banffshire and Buchan Coast https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast Smarkets Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
113 Edinburgh Pentlands https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands Smarkets Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
114 Moray https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray Smarkets Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6165456089048204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3834543910951797,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
115 Perthshire North https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6760837347165617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3239162652834383,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
116 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
117 Referendum on monarchy by 2024 https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024 Smarkets Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1803263907672888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8196736092327112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
118 Aberconwy https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy Smarkets Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
119 Blaenau Gwent https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent Smarkets Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
120 Brecon and Radnorshire https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire Smarkets Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
121 Caerphilly https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly Smarkets Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
122 Cardiff Central https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
123 Cardiff North https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
124 Cardiff West https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west Smarkets Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
125 Ceredigion https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion Smarkets Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
126 Clwyd South https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south Smarkets Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
127 Gower https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower Smarkets Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
128 Llanelli https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli Smarkets Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
129 Preseli Pembrokeshire https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire Smarkets Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
130 Vale of Clwyd https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd Smarkets Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
131 Vale of Glamorgan https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan Smarkets Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
132 Wrexham https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham Smarkets Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
133 Alyn and Deeside https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside Smarkets Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
134 Delyn https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn Smarkets Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
135 Newport East https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east Smarkets Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
136 Newport West https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west Smarkets Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
137 Ynys Môn https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon Smarkets Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
138
139

30
data/williamhill-questions.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

912
data/xrisk-questions-raw.json Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,912 @@
[
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.17,
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.19,
"actualEstimate": "19%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
"probability": 0.01,
"actualEstimate": "1%",
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
"platform": "Martin Rees",
"date_approx": 2003,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"probability": 0.08,
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.",
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
"date_approx": "",
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019."
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
"date_approx": 2002,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%.",
"platform": "Gott III",
"date_approx": 1993,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0035,
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
"platform": "Wells",
"date_approx": 2009,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
"probability": 0.002,
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
"platform": "Simpson",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "AI",
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
"probability": 0.055,
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50%",
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
"probability": 0.175,
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
"probability": 0.4,
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2014,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
},
{
"title": "Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/",
"probability": 0.01,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Paul Christiano",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI",
"description": "He also says \"I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number.\" And \"All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
"probability": 41.5,
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "2%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.00004,
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.0000019,
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.000002,
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
"probability": 0.33,
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
"description": "Ord: \"\"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.18,
"actualEstimate": "18%",
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
"probability": 0.000055,
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
"platform": "Luke Oman",
"date_approx": 2012,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.35,
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.6,
"actualEstimate": "60%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.9,
"actualEstimate": "90%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.97,
"actualEstimate": "97%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "3%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
"probability": 0.001,
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "25%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "70%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.67,
"actualEstimate": "67%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.62,
"actualEstimate": "62%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.6,
"actualEstimate": "60%",
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.52,
"actualEstimate": "52%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "30%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.6,
"actualEstimate": "60%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "25%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.01,
"actualEstimate": "1%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "30%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "30%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.011,
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.0038,
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.98,
"actualEstimate": "98%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "30%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"actualEstimate": "72%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"actualEstimate": "72%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "70%",
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "10%",
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
}
]

201
data/xrisk-questions.csv Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Total existential risk by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)
Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""
This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his ""business as usual"" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 19%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk in the 21st century","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 1%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extinction risk in the next century","https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Risk of extinction over the next five centuries","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: At or above 30%
The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ≤50% (""no better than fifty-fifty"")
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 8%.
That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential disaster will do us in","https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Global catastrophic risk per year.","https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.2%
Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about ""global catastrophic risk"".","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: >20%
I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence","https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0-10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~0.1-1%
Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~5%
This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI-induced existential catastrophe","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.05%
This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential risk from AI","https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5-30%
I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased."" I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance of humanity not surviving AI","https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33%
Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more ""optimism"" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future","https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
He also says ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)","https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 33-50%
This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said ""two obvious Schelling points"" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":41.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":-40.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.05%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 2%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic","https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)
The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include ""accidental"" release of a bioengineered pathogen.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.00004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism","https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0000019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999981,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0001%
The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0001%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0002%
This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.5%
This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says ""Note that for these predictions no time frame was given."" I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.0100%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50)
See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~33% (""about one in three"")
Ord: """"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?
My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.""""
Arden Koehler replies """"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?""""
Ord replies: """"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.""""","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 18%
This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was ""4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~20%
This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.
""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~2%
I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper","http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)
I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.000055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30-40%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 60%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 90%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 97%
Arden Koehler: ""...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?
Mark Lynas: ""Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.030000000000000027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 3%
Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
Increased from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.1%
Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years","https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 25%
Increased from his 5% unconditional probability","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests","https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~10%
So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless","https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~20-30%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~30%
There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important","https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~30%
I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~50%
Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.
Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Soft AGI takeoff","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 70%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 67%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 62%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 60%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 52%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.5%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 60%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 25%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 5%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 1%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century","https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: ~5%
I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential."" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Per year chance of nuclear war","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 1.10%
In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.011,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia","https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 0.38%
In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year."" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 98%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.020000000000000018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100","https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 30%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 72%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 72%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 70%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)","https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 50%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)","http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/","X-risk estimates","Actual estimate: 10%
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Total existential risk by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6) Ord writes: "Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability." This estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his "business as usual" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 19% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Existential risk in the 21st century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 1% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Extinction risk in the next century https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Probably at or above 3% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
6 Risk of extinction over the next five centuries https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: At or above 30% The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent” [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
7 Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ≤50% ("no better than fifty-fifty") [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
8 There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100 https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Median: 1%. Mean: 8%. That median and mean is as of 3rd July 2019. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
9 Existential disaster will do us in https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html X-risk estimates Actual estimate: Probably at or above 25% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
10 Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5%. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
11 Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.3-0.4% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9965,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
12 Global catastrophic risk per year. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.2% Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about "global catastrophic risk". [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
13 Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50% (~1 in 2) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg X-risk estimates Actual estimate: >20% I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0-10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~0.1-1% Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied "I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.945,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
20 Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~5% This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF I think he updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
21 AI-induced existential catastrophe https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
22 Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.05% This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 Existential risk from AI https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5-30% I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased." I assume he means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 Chance of humanity not surviving AI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40) X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50, 40, or 33% Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted "This number fluctuates a lot". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an "actually superintelligent" AI, whereas for "AI in general" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more "optimism" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-paul-christiano/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% He also says "I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number." And "All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?) https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 33-50% This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said "two obvious Schelling points" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk. [{"name":"Yes","probability":41.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":-40.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~3% (~1 in 30) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.05% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~0.01% (~1 in 10,000) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 2% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8) The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include "accidental" release of a bioengineered pathogen. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.00004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.00019% (0.0000019) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0000019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999981,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0001% The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for "synthetic biology" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0001% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
35 Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0002% This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. "These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate." In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
36 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
37 Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.5% This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says "Note that for these predictions no time frame was given." I think that that's incorrect, based on phrasings in the original source, but I'm not certain. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
38 Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.0100% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
39 Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~2% (~1 in 50) See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do) https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~33% ("about one in three") Ord: ""one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen? My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together."" Arden Koehler replies ""Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?"" Ord replies: ""That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about."" [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe)”, assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 18% This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was "4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8200000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”) https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. I think he updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future. https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~20% This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time. "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. [For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~2% I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”) I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.000055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999945,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30-40% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 60% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 90% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 97% Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.030000000000000027,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 3% Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% Increased from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.1% Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 25% Increased from his 5% unconditional probability [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~10% So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~20-30% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~30% There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~30% I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~50% Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. Toby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 Soft AGI takeoff https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 70% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015 https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 67% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 62% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 60% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 52% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.5% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
69 A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
70 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
71 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 60% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 25% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 5% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 1% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
81 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
82 chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript X-risk estimates Actual estimate: ~5% I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential." Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
83 Per year chance of nuclear war https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 1.10% In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.011,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.989,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
84 Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1 X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 0.38% In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year." This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0038,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9962,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
85 Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
86 At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 98% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.020000000000000018,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
87 At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100 https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 30% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
88 Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 72% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
89 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 72% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
90 Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 70% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
91 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 50% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments) http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/ X-risk estimates Actual estimate: 10% [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2

1822
data/xrisk-questions.json Normal file
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

5
src/index.js
View File

@ -8,12 +8,12 @@ import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js"
import {foretold} from "./foretold-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
import {hypermind} from "./hypermind-fetch.js"
import {ladbrokes} from "./ladbrokes-fetch.js"
import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js"
import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js"
import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js"
import {omen} from "./omen-fetch.js"
import {hypermind} from "./hypermind-fetch.js"
import {smarkets} from "./smarkets-fetch.js"
import {williamhill} from "./williamhill-fetch.js"
@ -21,7 +21,8 @@ import {williamhill} from "./williamhill-fetch.js"
let opts = {}
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets", "williamhill", "ladbrokes"]
// let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets", "williamhill", "ladbrokes", "xrisk"]
let sets = ["csetforetell", "elicit", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "ladbrokes", "metaculus", "polymarket", "predictit", "omen", "smarkets", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
let suffix = "-questions"
let locationData = "./data/"
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));

0
src/process-forecasts-from-old.js → src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-givewellopenphil.js
View File

41
src/misc/process-forecasts-from-old-xrisk.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs"
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "../../data/"
/* Body */
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions-raw.json")
let data = JSON.parse(rawdata)
let results = []
for(let datum of data){
let probability = datum["probability"]
let description = `Actual estimate: ${datum["actualEstimate"]}
${datum["description"]}`
let author = `${datum["platform"]} (~${datum["date_approx"]})`
let result = ({
"title": datum["title"],
"url": datum["url"],
"platform": "X-risk estimates",
"author": author,
"description": description,
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": probability,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 1-probability,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
})
results.push(result)
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync("/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/xrisk-questions.json", string)

0
src/process-forecasts-into-elicit.js → src/misc/process-forecasts-into-elicit.js
View File

0
src/process-forecasts-template.js → src/misc/process-forecasts-template.js
View File

0
src/test.js → src/misc/test.js
View File

5
src/timetaken.txt
View File

@ -1,5 +0,0 @@
Do 11 Mär 2021 12:32:42 CET
Do 11 Mär 2021 13:51:38 CET
Do 11 Mär 2021 14:37:59 CET
Do 11 Mär 2021 18:13:23 CET
Do 11 Mär 2021 18:49:09 CET