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2Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnsonhttps://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leaderSmarketsContracts to be added on request[{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03746229444390386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009730466089325679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025591125814926532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.027050695728325382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10810547825240828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.06490220881580228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06276150627615062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.00544906101002238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0810547825240829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07482728422691447,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03892186435730271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.013914566507735718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030359054198696115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.023158509292595112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009730466089325677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2904544127663715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
3Gender of next Conservative leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leaderSmarketsWhat will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?[{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
4Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkelhttps://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019Smarkets[{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005523040145082845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.017888055395268318,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05316956557579754,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.34638529387519573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.07171708845107574,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.0329733740004946,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.025719231720385784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.35842057538537625,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05498310114582474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.0027203033550408044,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.030500370950457503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
5Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeonhttps://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leaderSmarkets[{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}]2
6Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Ministerhttps://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnsonSmarkets[{"probability":0.009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009484966328369536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.1281418950962724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8622782889120744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
7Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UKhttps://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnsonSmarketsWith disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05664798777381558,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9433520122261844,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
8Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnsonhttps://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pmSmarketsContracts to be added on request[{"name":"Jeremy Corbyn","probability":0.011361959569130883,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nigel Farage","probability":0.007746790615316511,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jo Swinson","probability":0.08779696030692045,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keir Starmer","probability":0.1570016231370813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.010550391028478675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.024568393094289504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.041021100782056945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.024568393094289504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.01601003393832079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.02169101372288623,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Grieve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.041021100782056945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.020510550391028472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Watson","probability":0.01601003393832079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.028404898922827205,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.06706507304116864,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.03688947912055481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.03511878412276818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.03511878412276818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ken Clarke","probability":0.04471004869411243,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Harriet Harman","probability":0.007377895824110962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Beckett","probability":0.054670208056662235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2107864836948502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
9NY-22 Congressional District Winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-raceSmarketsWhich party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6297324817180413,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.3702675182819587,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
10Year of next General Electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020Smarkets[{"name":"2020","probability":0.04483098717833767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.06401864969066619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.06895005828028333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.19080068143100512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.6313996234197077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
11Year of next Scottish referendumhttps://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendumSmarkets[{"probability":0.07764344119085889,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2021","probability":0.04822139911943532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17471521420085262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.09986721643720735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2729750506674121,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.3265776783842337,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
12Next Cabinet Member to leavehttps://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leaveSmarkets[{"name":"Boris Johnson","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.05174376487633241,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.07389009624340268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0985201283245369,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Buckland","probability":0.08279002380213185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ben Wallace","probability":0.12315016040567113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.11249094484114663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alok Sharma","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Truss","probability":0.055986753596191666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thérèse Coffey","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.15223015626616995,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"George Eustice","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Jenrick","probability":0.07958191037979924,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Grant Shapps","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brandon Lewis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alister Jack","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Hart","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Baroness Evans of Bowes Park","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Oliver Dowden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Milling","probability":0.04501707544240919,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
13Party to get the most seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-partySmarketsContracts to be added on request.[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4026069395997797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.5463557921791813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0510372682210391,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
14USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-dealSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2967147740220281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7032852259779718,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
15Year of next General Election in Hungaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-electionSmarketsThe Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?[{"name":"2022 or earlier","probability":0.3964413291096583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021Smarkets[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.8215239268843705,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.1283631135756829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03542821934688847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.014684740193058122,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
17Winner of the 2022 French presidential electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022SmarketsWhich candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?[{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"François Baroin","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olivier Faure","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Marie Bigard","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean Lassalle","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joachim Son-Forget","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernard Cazeneuve","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arnaud Montebourg","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ségolène Royal","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florian Philippot","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","probability":null}]2
18Macron first round vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022SmarketsWhat will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?[{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
19Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmerSmarketsKeir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request.[{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.23187626092804303,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.0996637525218561,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10342972427706794,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.06899798251513115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.0672494956287828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14942837928715536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.05850706119704102,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.0707464694014795,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.03739071956960323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0.030531271015467387,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04478816408876934,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
20Gender of the next Labour leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmerSmarketsThe Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?[{"name":"Female","probability":0.5508474576271186,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Male","probability":0.4491525423728813,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
21First Minister to leave the Cabinet?https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-goSmarketsWith the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? [{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.4085036637099884,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matt Hancock","probability":0.5914963362900116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
22Keir Starmer exit datehttps://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-dateSmarketsWhen will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?[{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.4574565416285453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.23760292772186642,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.30494053064958826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
232021 London mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-electionSmarketsWho will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.93945429197371,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.027683728340967922,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.031069508066122273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0009958175662218678,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Kurten","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Piers Corbyn","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Farah London","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0.00009958175662218677,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
24Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first roundhttps://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferencesSmarketsWill Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44574557708508844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5542544229149116,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
252021 West Midlands mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winnerSmarketsWho will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.7013516015552675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.2986483984447324,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
262021 Tees Valley mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winnerSmarketsWho will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7560150032019028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24398499679809715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
27Scottish Parliament election 2021 winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021SmarketsWhich party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.92151517999812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.014475044647053292,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01174922455117962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05226055080364695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
28Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snpSmarketsWhich party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4779730281977932,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.37490805067429506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08173273395995097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06538618716796077,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
29Local elections highest vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-shareSmarketsWhich party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.6636937568894679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33630624311053214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
30Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkarhttps://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leaderSmarketsContracts to be added on request.[{"name":"Simon Coveney","probability":0.6111636707663197,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paschal Donohoe","probability":0.09145380006307156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Helen McEntee","probability":0.1142646904236308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josepha Madigan","probability":0.0875643855776306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Harris","probability":0.0955534531693472,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Humphreys","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eoghan Murphy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charles Flanagan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Kyne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Bruton","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kehoe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heydon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe McHugh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Ring","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Creed","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colm Brophy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
31Irish reunification referendum before 2023https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023SmarketsWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17627357659086904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8237264234091309,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
32Next Scottish First Ministerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-ministerSmarketsWho will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.[{"name":"Kate Forbes","probability":0.32232651692926584,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":0.32232651692926584,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley-Anne Somerville","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Russell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.14582634931277239,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Leonard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":0.20952061682869597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jackson Carlaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
33French Presidential election to happen before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1252665739452944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8747334260547056,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
34Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challengeSmarketsWill any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17219113215669393,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8278088678433061,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
35UK to begin imports of chlorinated chickenhttps://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chickenSmarketsWill the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.0832417307884481,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9167582692115519,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
36Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021SmarketsWill Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12472560367192177,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8752743963280782,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
37Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022SmarketsWill Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16540927951716333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8345907204828368,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
38Next Fianna Fáil leaderhttps://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martinSmarketsWho will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Jim O'Callaghan","probability":0.40963460593150913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael McGrath","probability":0.33442569228248403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dara Calleary","probability":0.2559397017860069,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas Byrne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Niall Collins","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Lawless","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul McAuliffe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darragh O'Brien","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norma Foley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Troy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McGuinness","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jack Chambers","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Browne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Rabbitte","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seán Ó Fearghail","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eamon O'Cuiv","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
39Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-refSmarkets[{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
40Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majoritySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.526335733232285,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.47366426676771506,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
41Next general election overall majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majoritySmarketsWhich party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.4154490460679386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.3447184737087017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.23564448580735226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.004187994416007445,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
42Date of next Japanese general electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-electionSmarketsWhen will the next Japanese general election take place?[{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
43Belarus to have a General Election in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
44Joe Biden to serve full termhttps://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-termSmarketsWill Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.46331401630488167,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5366859836951183,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
452024 Democratic presidential nomineehttps://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nomineeSmarketsWho will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.[{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.3615614866550262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.3667997006734847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05200798204040908,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08904963831379396,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04614617111499127,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06235969069593415,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020828136692442007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.001247193813918683,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
462024 Republican presidential nomineehttps://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nomineeSmarketsWho will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.[{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.2977354951092054,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.02237706016347313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03189066059225512,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06378132118451024,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.029076778775291433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.03725043548170976,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.1594533029612756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.026798874447273212,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.05828755192281923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.08374648264772878,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04622805842154629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013399437223636606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013399437223636606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.11657510384563846,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
472024 US presidential winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winnerSmarketsWho will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.[{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.1802162162162162,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.21199999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.1257297297297297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.024540540540540536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.01081081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.03729729729729729,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06356756756756755,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.019675675675675672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.0721081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.06972972972972973,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02702702702702702,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05405405405405404,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.04918918918918918,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
482021 London mayoral election second placehttps://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-placeSmarketsWho will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.[{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.9351704996034894,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.02914353687549564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.006641554321966694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.02478191911181602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.000991276764472641,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0032712133227597146,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
49Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assemblyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seatSmarketsWill the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13724069209167497,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.862759307908325,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
50Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-electionSmarketsContracts available on request.[{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
51London Assembly: Labour majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majoritySmarketsWill Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
52How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021SmarketsHow many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?[{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.1290172766115549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.31813115363180383,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5528515697566413,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
532021 Norwegian election: Most voteshttps://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-electionSmarketsWhich party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)[{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.482994803967879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.29822075263737996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1312391749330814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.043772634230829784,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
542021 Norwegian election: Largest minor partyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-partySmarketsWhich party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.[{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
55Brexit Party to control any councilhttps://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-councilSmarketsWill the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
56Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assemblyhttps://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seatSmarketsWill the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.12727939155136078,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8727206084486392,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
57London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seatsSmarketsHow many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"0–2","probability":0.7598774124078522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.24012258759214777,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
58Joe Biden's first international visithttps://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visitSmarketsWhich of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?[{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.6515410958904109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.1829337899543379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0380517503805175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.11605783866057838,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.0019025875190258753,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.009512937595129375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
59Biden approval on day 100https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100SmarketsWhat will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?[{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.02845126175160811,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.0916213095827148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5461817582055087,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.2660399142338776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.05500577271977568,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012699983506514925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
60Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-postSmarketsWill Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
61Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretarySmarketsWill Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3994252873563218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6005747126436781,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
62Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-electionSmarkets[{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
632021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-electionSmarketsWho will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
64Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winnerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-electionSmarketsWhich party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
65Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021Smarkets[{"name":"GERB","probability":0.6037286115603984,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"BSP","probability":0.3669021877926279,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"ITN","probability":0.029369200646973695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
66Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-shareSmarketsWhat percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?[{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.32353451266042316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45.0–49.9%","probability":0.4250780437044745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50% or over","probability":0.2513874436351023,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
67Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-julySmarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6864825123411405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31351748765885934,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
68London elections: In-person votinghttps://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-votingSmarketsWill in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?[{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
69London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-aheadSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9107025607353907,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08929743926460933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
70$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 dayshttps://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-daysSmarketsWill the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
71New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidatehttps://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021SmarketsWho will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.[{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5962437395659432,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.14148580968280466,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.07587646076794657,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.03797996661101836,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.09933222036727879,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.04908180300500834,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
72Trump to create new political partyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-partySmarketsWill Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
73Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-electionSmarkets[{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8558522783679142,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.055197061451404746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.0708825573314802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.018068102849200837,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
74Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primaryhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jrSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
752022 House of Representatives controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-controlSmarketsWhich party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3759190298863745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6240809701136256,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
76President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendmenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeqSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4744868035190616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5255131964809384,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
772022 Senate controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-controlSmarketsWhich party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?[{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.44550898203592815,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5544910179640719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
78Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandySmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6005369127516779,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39946308724832214,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
792022 House and Senate controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-controlSmarketsWho will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?[{"name":"D House / D Senate","probability":0.2841289413422582,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House / R Senate","probability":0.12585872820151486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / D Senate","probability":0.2230051083318654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"R House / R Senate","probability":0.36700722212436143,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
80Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubmanSmarkets[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5351127473538886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4648872526461113,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
81Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnoutSmarkets[{"name":"50% and below","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"51-53%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54-56%","probability":0.47237606375793595,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57%+","probability":0.527623936242064,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
82Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congresshttps://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congressSmarketsWill US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.18237860394537178,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8176213960546281,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
832021 Israeli election: Likud seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seatsSmarketsHow many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?[{"name":"26 or fewer","probability":0.04994645117320612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27–28","probability":0.12170187907701295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29–30","probability":0.3091227728556129,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31–32","probability":0.32450589037094735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33 or more","probability":0.19472300652322072,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
842021 Israeli election: Joint List seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seatsSmarketsHow many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?[{"name":"8 or fewer","probability":0.5199615619813052,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.4800384380186949,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
85Next G20 leader to leavehttps://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leaveSmarketsWhich of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?[{"name":"Yoshihide Suga (Japan)","probability":0.5845854201446856,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron (France)","probability":0.2107679465776294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden (United States)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)","probability":0.20464663327768506,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Trudeau (Canada)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Vladimir Putin (Russia)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xi Jinping (China)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
86Year of next Canadian federal electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-electionSmarketsWhen will the next Canadian federal election take place?[{"name":"2021","probability":0.4012149786925378,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.17109438752380088,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023 or later","probability":0.42769063378366123,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
87Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliamenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliamentSmarketsWill Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11546469808820746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8845353019117925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
88Brian Rose vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-shareSmarketsWhat share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?[{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.5931469082315872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.4068530917684128,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
89Aberdeenshire Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-westSmarketsWhich party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5665742024965326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.43342579750346744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
90Ayrhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayrSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
91Dumbartonhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbartonSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6490849447513812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.35091505524861877,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
92Dumfriesshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshireSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5926263916773133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.40737360832268665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
93East Lothianhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothianSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6236568930977964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3034966308504826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.072846476051721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
94Eastwoodhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwoodSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4389185278958314,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1221629442083371,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
95Edinburgh Centralhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-centralSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6591573192572344,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.21924780846451125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.06079743613912715,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.06079743613912715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
96Edinburgh Southernhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southernSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5199015903699148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3755381776645286,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.10456023196555662,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
97Edinburgh Westernhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-westernSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.4800384380186949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.5199615619813052,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
98Galloway and West Dumfrieshttps://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfriesSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
99Glasgow Kelvinhttps://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvinSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7601773113804958,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.07535733671069297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scottish Green","probability":0.16446535190881129,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
100North East Fifehttps://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fifeSmarketsWhich party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.32412084246640616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.6758791575335938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
1012021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labourSmarketsWhich party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
1022021 Senedd election: Labour majorityhttps://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majoritySmarketsWill the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.31186058609328937,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6881394139067106,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
103Nicola Sturgeon exit datehttps://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-dateSmarketsWhen will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?[{"name":"2021","probability":0.2441672221693172,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.7558327778306828,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
104Aberdeen South and North Kincardinehttps://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardineSmarketsWhich party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
105Aberdeenshire Easthttps://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-eastSmarketsWhich party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.23809523809523808,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
106Angus North and Mearnshttps://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearnsSmarketsWhich party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.683055775839281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.316944224160719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
107Banffshire and Buchan Coasthttps://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coastSmarketsWhich party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
108Edinburgh Pentlandshttps://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlandsSmarketsWhich party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
109Morayhttps://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moraySmarketsWhich party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6165456089048204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3834543910951797,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
110Perthshire Northhttps://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-northSmarketsWhich party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6760837347165617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3239162652834383,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
111Perthshire South and Kinross-shirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shireSmarketsWhich party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6635258645057949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33647413549420524,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
112Referendum on monarchy by 2024https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024SmarketsWill the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1803263907672888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8196736092327112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
113Aberconwyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwySmarketsWhich party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
114Blaenau Gwenthttps://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwentSmarketsWhich party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5093688822597184,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.4906311177402815,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
115Brecon and Radnorshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshireSmarketsWhich party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
116Caerphillyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphillySmarketsWhich party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4452631578947368,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.417719298245614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.13701754385964912,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
117Cardiff Centralhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-centralSmarketsWhich party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
118Cardiff Northhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-northSmarketsWhich party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
119Cardiff Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-westSmarketsWhich party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5885608856088561,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.41143911439114395,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
120Ceredigionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigionSmarketsWhich party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
121Clwyd Southhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-southSmarketsWhich party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
122Gowerhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gowerSmarketsWhich party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
123Llanellihttps://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelliSmarketsWhich party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4788227525705122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.5211772474294878,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
124Preseli Pembrokeshirehttps://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshireSmarketsWhich party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8103726178060112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.1896273821939888,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
125Vale of Clwydhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwydSmarketsWhich party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
126Vale of Glamorganhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorganSmarketsWhich party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
127Wrexhamhttps://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexhamSmarketsWhich party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.6174792531120332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3825207468879668,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
128Alyn and Deesidehttps://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deesideSmarketsWhich party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
129Delynhttps://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delynSmarketsWhich party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
130Newport Easthttps://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-eastSmarketsWhich party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
131Newport Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-westSmarketsWhich party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.6619637750238322,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33803622497616775,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
132Ynys Mônhttps://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-monSmarketsWhich party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?[{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
133Hartlepool by-electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-electionSmarketsWhich party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.[{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4941303071805908,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4703580512619839,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Reform UK","probability":0.013989434552925062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0019565642731363725,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.019565642731363724,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
134Joe Biden exit datehttps://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-dateSmarketsWhen will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?[{"name":"2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
1352021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seatshttps://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seatsSmarketsHow many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?[{"name":"60 or fewer","probability":0.12997582594681706,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"61–64","probability":0.2336019339242546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–68","probability":0.3006446414182111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69–72","probability":0.22385173247381143,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or more","probability":0.11192586623690572,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
136London Assembly: Bexley & Bromleyhttps://smarkets.com/event/42128456/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-bexley-bromleySmarketsWhich party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.862759307908325,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.13724069209167497,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
137London Assembly: Croydon & Suttonhttps://smarkets.com/event/42128462/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-croydon-suttonSmarketsWhich party will win the London Assembly constituency of Croydon & Sutton at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.2747053490480508,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.7252946509519492,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
138London Assembly: Havering & Redbridgehttps://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridgeSmarketsWhich party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
139London Assembly: South Westhttps://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-westSmarketsWhich party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5733333333333334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.33777777777777773,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08888888888888888,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
140London Assembly: West Centralhttps://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-centralSmarketsWhich party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election?[{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
1412021 London mayoral election third placehttps://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-placeSmarketsWho will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.[{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.5729042171760288,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.34147174321324913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.02245176711627113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Gammons","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.0437937510670992,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.01937852142735189,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
142Year of next Israeli legislative electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-electionSmarketsWhen will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?[{"name":"2021","probability":0.3207955730210923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":0.28847541903921725,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.1513353115727003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024 or later","probability":0.23939369636699015,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
143Liverpool City Council controlhttps://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-controlSmarketsWhich party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.[{"name":"No overall control","probability":0.1719026362334709,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.7138044302198264,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.05811505095595048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.056177882590752126,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
144Airdrie and Shotts by-electionhttps://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-electionSmarketsWhich party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.[{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8367465786664079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.10783267009608853,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.055420751237503646,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
145Conservative national equivalent vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-shareSmarketsWhat will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?[{"name":"34% or under","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"35%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"37%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38% or over","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
146Labour national equivalent vote sharehttps://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-shareSmarketsWhat will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?[{"name":"30% or under","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"31%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"33%","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34% or over","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2