403 KiB
403 KiB
| 1 | index | title | url | stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/170-will-the-united-states-have-the-world-s-fastest-supercomputer-in-june-2022 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/168-when-will-1-billion-people-in-india-receive-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine | 0 |
| 4 | 2 | Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/164-will-the-chinese-people-s-liberation-army-pla-seize-control-of-any-taiwanese-occupied-features-in-the-south-china-sea-between-august-1-2021-and-march-31-2022 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/163-following-el-salvador-will-another-country-classify-bitcoin-as-legal-tender-by-december-31-2021 | 0 |
| 6 | 4 | Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/162-will-the-world-health-organization-declare-a-new-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-between-august-1-2021-and-august-1-2022 | 0 |
| 7 | 5 | [Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/155-experimental-what-will-be-the-median-foretell-forecast-on-whether-covid-19-originated-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china-on-october-1-2021 | 0 |
| 8 | 6 | [Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/154-experimental-did-covid-19-originate-in-a-lab-in-wuhan-china | 0 |
| 9 | 7 | Will the Democratic Party maintain its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm elections in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/150-will-the-democratic-party-maintain-its-majority-in-the-u-s-house-of-representatives-after-the-midterm-elections-in-2022 | 0 |
| 10 | 8 | What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/141-what-will-the-big-5-tech-companies-average-reputation-ranking-be-in-the-2022-harris-poll | 0 |
| 11 | 9 | What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/134-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-have-a-chinese-co-author-in-2022 | 0 |
| 12 | 10 | What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/132-what-percentage-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-reference-ai-ethics-in-2022 | 0 |
| 13 | 11 | What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/131-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-in-2022 | 0 |
| 14 | 12 | What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/129-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2022 | 0 |
| 15 | 13 | What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/128-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2022 | 0 |
| 16 | 14 | What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/130-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-in-2022 | 0 |
| 17 | 15 | Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/127-will-a-g7-country-boycott-the-beijing-2022-winter-olympics-before-january-1-2022 | 0 |
| 18 | 16 | Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/126-will-china-sign-an-official-agreement-on-establishing-a-future-military-base-in-the-pacific-ocean-before-december-31-2021 | 0 |
| 19 | 17 | Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/122-will-hu-chunhua-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 | 0 |
| 20 | 18 | Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/120-will-li-keqiang-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 | 0 |
| 21 | 19 | Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/121-will-chen-min-er-be-a-member-of-the-standing-committee-of-the-politburo-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 | 0 |
| 22 | 21 | What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 | 0 |
| 23 | 22 | What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 | 0 |
| 24 | 23 | Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 | 0 |
| 25 | 24 | What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 | 0 |
| 26 | 25 | How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 | 0 |
| 27 | 26 | Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 | 0 |
| 28 | 27 | What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey | 0 |
| 29 | 28 | Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? | https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 | 0 |
| 30 | 29 | Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67 | 0 |
| 31 | 31 | A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15 | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608 | 0 |
| 32 | 32 | A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15 | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0 | 0 |
| 33 | 35 | Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324 | 0 |
| 34 | 36 | By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac | 0 |
| 35 | 37 | Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1 | 0 |
| 36 | 38 | 5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022 | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6 | 0 |
| 37 | 39 | How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10 | 0 |
| 38 | 40 | How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d | 0 |
| 39 | 41 | How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7 | 0 |
| 40 | 42 | What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd | 0 |
| 41 | 43 | What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620 | 0 |
| 42 | 44 | How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14 | 0 |
| 43 | 45 | How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924 | 0 |
| 44 | 46 | How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6 | 0 |
| 45 | 47 | How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d | 0 |
| 46 | 48 | How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4 | 0 |
| 47 | 49 | What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df | 0 |
| 48 | 50 | What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889 | 0 |
| 49 | 51 | How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781 | 0 |
| 50 | 52 | Will MIRI still exist in 2023? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba | 0 |
| 51 | 53 | How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893 | 0 |
| 52 | 54 | Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28 | 0 |
| 53 | 55 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131 | 0 |
| 54 | 57 | What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a | 0 |
| 55 | 58 | When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406 | 0 |
| 56 | 59 | When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a | 0 |
| 57 | 60 | When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc | 0 |
| 58 | 61 | What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534 | 0 |
| 59 | 62 | What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b | 0 |
| 60 | 63 | What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53 | 0 |
| 61 | 64 | Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118 | 0 |
| 62 | 65 | Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a | 0 |
| 63 | 66 | Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789 | 0 |
| 64 | 67 | Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a | 0 |
| 65 | 68 | Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743 | 0 |
| 66 | 69 | Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a | 0 |
| 67 | 70 | Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b | 0 |
| 68 | 71 | Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3 | 0 |
| 69 | 72 | What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee | 0 |
| 70 | 73 | What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353 | 0 |
| 71 | 74 | What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f | 0 |
| 72 | 75 | At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e | 0 |
| 73 | 76 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b | 0 |
| 74 | 77 | At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275 | 0 |
| 75 | 78 | At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8 | 0 |
| 76 | 79 | At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f | 0 |
| 77 | 80 | Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763 | 0 |
| 78 | 81 | At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d | 0 |
| 79 | 82 | Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78 | 0 |
| 80 | 83 | At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507 | 0 |
| 81 | 84 | At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463 | 0 |
| 82 | 85 | When will the outbreak end? | https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70 | 0 |
| 83 | 86 | By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4 | 0 |
| 84 | 87 | By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930 | 0 |
| 85 | 88 | By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8 | 0 |
| 86 | 89 | How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8 | 0 |
| 87 | 90 | By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb | 0 |
| 88 | 91 | By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7 | 0 |
| 89 | 92 | By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570 | 0 |
| 90 | 93 | By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce | 0 |
| 91 | 94 | By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000 | 0 |
| 92 | 95 | By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483 | 0 |
| 93 | 96 | How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d | 0 |
| 94 | 97 | By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea | 0 |
| 95 | 98 | By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance? | https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b | 0 |
| 96 | 99 | What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826 | 0 |
| 97 | 100 | What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1 | 0 |
| 98 | 101 | What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09 | 0 |
| 99 | 102 | If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded | 0 |
| 100 | 103 | If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65 | 0 |
| 101 | 104 | How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878 | 0 |
| 102 | 105 | Will Labour win the next election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d | 0 |
| 103 | 106 | Will Conservatives win the next election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786 | 0 |
| 104 | 107 | If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6 | 0 |
| 105 | 108 | If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0 | 0 |
| 106 | 109 | What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91 | 0 |
| 107 | 110 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800 | 0 |
| 108 | 111 | Will Brexit be a hard Brexit? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11 | 0 |
| 109 | 112 | If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d | 0 |
| 110 | 113 | When will the next UK general election be? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d | 0 |
| 111 | 114 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444 | 0 |
| 112 | 115 | If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3 | 0 |
| 113 | 116 | Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba | 0 |
| 114 | 117 | What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec | 0 |
| 115 | 118 | If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126 | 0 |
| 116 | 119 | If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313 | 0 |
| 117 | 120 | What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024? | https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8 | 0 |
| 118 | 121 | What fraction of 80,000 hours' impact is not related to career plan changes? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c3ba1c83-fd04-47af-b8c1-7b493b0519e6 | 0 |
| 119 | 122 | What proportion of donations to FHI go to Oxford University? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c6587fcf-5113-4603-9d90-c9763a099476 | 0 |
| 120 | 123 | How much influence would CSET have in a 2024 Republican US administration, relative to its influence in a 2024 US Democratic administration? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fee03eb4-c956-4f61-81e6-76e2f76616c3 | 0 |
| 121 | 124 | Has CSET done more harm than good so far in its policy interventions? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/623499ee-19dd-4d2a-b100-614a3a0b032a | 0 |
| 122 | 126 | Is there a better option than CLR for suffering-focused donors? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/a2250763-8700-4768-96ba-215fd9d7739a | 0 |
| 123 | 127 | What fraction of CLR's research is only useful from a suffering-focused standpoint? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e65ceadf-f35d-42ff-adb0-f30ec57a25d4 | 0 |
| 124 | 128 | Will Rethink Priorities employ 5 FTEs producing high-quality longtermist research by 2025? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6a8a92c1-2740-4e21-98a6-6c4311bc8461 | 0 |
| 125 | 129 | Will Rethink Rethink Priorities be able to productively expand into the longtermist sphere? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/76d54743-3136-448d-adc6-de57d4eada9e | 0 |
| 126 | 130 | Will Rethink Priorities be able to produce research in the long-termist space similar in quality to the research they have produced on invertebrate welfare? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b0083e46-4dee-4281-a324-605657773834 | 0 |
| 127 | 131 | How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce each year per FTE-year employed at LessWrong? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a6642cc-a4e3-427f-be75-39f05023ca7f | 0 |
| 128 | 132 | How many FTE-years worth of high-quality research does LessWrong produce per year? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/fbfde3f4-ed4c-44a1-8beb-4aa4389e3787 | 0 |
| 129 | 133 | Is Projekt Framttid dead? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5700fd38-7ac3-4380-baaa-b00351ba3e9c | 0 |
| 130 | 134 | Conditional on its continued existence, by 2025, will MacAskill still be the CEO of the Forethought Foundation? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/5260868a-c5cc-4f6f-acf5-b2293f718487 | 0 |
| 131 | 135 | Will the Forethought Foundation continue to exist by 2025? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e919e049-40cc-4155-9bda-9e2a47b0ea50 | 0 |
| 132 | 136 | How many FTEs does FLI currently employ (as of 2021)? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/59ad32cb-17f3-4242-a440-5a4d44ffcfd7 | 0 |
| 133 | 137 | Will further work on a theory of malevolence be fruitful by 2030? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f689875d-fe82-43ee-88a6-0c414791f4d9 | 0 |
| 134 | 138 | What percentage of CSER's research staff is doing high value work? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/d2aa8a4c-77e4-4a4a-8f1c-a4b85932922c | 0 |
| 135 | 139 | Will the APPFG continue to exist by 2025? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b54917c1-f67c-4003-aff7-de188cc47879 | 0 |
| 136 | 140 | Conditional on its continued existence, will the APPG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission by 2025? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6b379bd0-4659-45e4-b3d7-b769aed7c020 | 0 |
| 137 | 141 | By, 2025, will the APPGFG help pass legislation in the UK related to its mission? | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/301c0ffe-7697-4b7a-9908-4bee72642236 | 0 |
| 138 | 142 | $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/704c1052-8e0b-4582-8feb-604a8c452ac3 | 0 |
| 139 | 143 | $100M to alternate foods is more cost-effective than to AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/62c003c4-2525-4830-84ed-93686dc8cae1 | 0 |
| 140 | 144 | Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/b1a21ed8-7819-467c-8a63-98b0c85993ef | 0 |
| 141 | 145 | Marginal money now on alternate foods is more cost effective than on AI risk mitigation (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/50d7c7a8-f46d-4427-af5f-12cbd898c40b | 0 |
| 142 | 146 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/451d4013-d302-43c5-b2c3-bacc7d82ed59 | 0 |
| 143 | 147 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall with planning and R&D as well (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f7616759-f00b-4fd1-a10e-0a281541efc6 | 0 |
| 144 | 148 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/1a16fcf9-e155-4157-b02b-f9d2d546368c | 0 |
| 145 | 149 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of 10% agricultural shortfall from ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/ff6231c6-3def-4663-82b7-d2d605bf37db | 0 |
| 146 | 150 | Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/6084ec83-df7b-4af7-8c58-612b491e6946 | 0 |
| 147 | 151 | Untruncated reduction in far future potential due to 10% agricultural shortfall (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/36fdd2c9-7829-4fae-9222-ab0d1795d5b5 | 0 |
| 148 | 152 | Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/c24a076b-d045-43d2-b3d4-b555227fae30 | 0 |
| 149 | 153 | Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/07b1924e-0581-410f-a34c-3e87cfcd278a | 0 |
| 150 | 154 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cd78ff36-da47-4411-ab67-d20eb0811333 | 0 |
| 151 | 155 | Untruncated mitigation of far future impact of war due to ALLFED so far (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/805f614e-e170-4a72-9bd2-daadd4d62789 | 0 |
| 152 | 156 | Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/f9203a65-d4ff-4aaf-95dc-39a577e2318a | 0 |
| 153 | 157 | Cost of planning, R&DF for alternate foods (ALLFED's estimate) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/106715d2-2484-47ac-ad1f-dcfb63ed55f8 | 0 |
| 154 | 158 | Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/cca72358-624a-40e5-a87a-5b14a50fdea6 | 0 |
| 155 | 159 | Untruncated probability of full scale nuclear war per year (ALLFED's estimates) | https://www.foretold.io/c/b2412a1d-0aa4-4e37-a12a-0aca9e440a96/m/e147be3b-3280-43aa-a27e-a1a561c66b18 | 0 |
| 156 | 160 | Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2070-will-haiti-hold-a-presidential-election-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 157 | 161 | Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2069-which-driver-will-win-the-2021-formula-one-world-drivers-championship | 0 |
| 158 | 162 | Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2073-will-ashraf-ghani-either-flee-afghanistan-or-cease-to-be-its-president-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 159 | 163 | Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2071-will-the-us-fully-evacuate-or-lose-control-of-its-embassy-in-kabul-afghanistan-before-1-december-2021 | 0 |
| 160 | 164 | What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2072-what-will-be-total-opec-crude-oil-production-for-october-2021 | 0 |
| 161 | 165 | How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2074-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-12-november-2021 | 0 |
| 162 | 166 | When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2075-when-will-600-million-people-in-india-have-received-at-least-one-dose-of-a-covid-19-vaccine | 0 |
| 163 | 167 | Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2066-before-1-january-2022-will-the-european-commission-ec-recommend-that-the-council-of-the-european-union-authorize-the-ec-to-open-negotiations-with-taiwan-on-an-investment-agreement | 0 |
| 164 | 168 | What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2067-what-will-be-the-market-capitalization-for-the-global-cryptocurrency-market-on-9-december-2021-according-to-coinmarketcap | 0 |
| 165 | 169 | What will be the value of the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2068-what-will-be-the-value-of-the-s-p-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index-for-october-2021 | 0 |
| 166 | 170 | As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2062-as-of-1-november-2021-will-waka-kotahi-list-321-or-more-qualifying-electrical-vehicle-ev-charging-stations-as-available-in-new-zealand | 0 |
| 167 | 171 | How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2063-how-many-new-york-city-eviction-filings-will-be-reported-for-2021 | 0 |
| 168 | 172 | Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2064-before-1-august-2021-will-legislation-authorizing-or-enabling-an-extension-or-replacement-of-the-cdc-s-nationwide-eviction-moratorium-past-31-july-2021-become-law | 0 |
| 169 | 173 | Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2061-will-the-median-price-of-a-house-in-new-zealand-exceed-nz-870-000-in-december-2021-according-to-reinz | 0 |
| 170 | 174 | Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2060-will-a-member-of-the-forces-from-an-african-country-other-than-mozambique-be-killed-in-a-lethal-confrontation-in-cabo-delgado-before-1-april-2022 | 0 |
| 171 | 175 | Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2056-will-the-us-fda-approve-a-drug-used-to-reverse-the-effects-of-alzheimer-s-disease-on-the-brain-and-or-approve-a-vaccine-to-prevent-alzheimer-s-disease-as-of-2035 | 0 |
| 172 | 176 | How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2055-how-many-opioid-overdoses-resulting-in-death-will-occur-in-the-us-in-2026 | 0 |
| 173 | 177 | When will the first human have lived for 180 consecutive Earth days on or under the surface of the moon? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2058-when-will-the-first-human-have-lived-for-180-consecutive-earth-days-on-or-under-the-surface-of-the-moon | 0 |
| 174 | 178 | How many RNA vaccines and therapeutics for humans will be FDA-approved as of 2031? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2057-how-many-rna-vaccines-and-therapeutics-for-humans-will-be-fda-approved-as-of-2031 | 0 |
| 175 | 179 | Will the Nobel Foundation announce that artificial intelligence has won or would be eligible to win a Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine before 2036? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2059-will-the-nobel-foundation-announce-that-artificial-intelligence-has-won-or-would-be-eligible-to-win-a-nobel-prize-in-physiology-or-medicine-before-2036 | 0 |
| 176 | 180 | Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2054-will-at-least-3-5-million-people-in-new-zealand-be-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-before-30-december-2021 | 0 |
| 177 | 181 | Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2053-will-the-us-truck-tonnage-index-reach-or-exceed-120-0-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 178 | 182 | Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2051-before-1-july-2022-will-the-us-impose-sanctions-on-any-chinese-person-or-entity-for-actions-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic | 0 |
| 179 | 183 | What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2052-what-will-be-the-percentage-change-in-the-producer-price-index-for-writing-and-printing-papers-for-may-2022-as-compared-to-may-2021 | 0 |
| 180 | 184 | When will the percentage of adults in US households that are teleworking because of the coronavirus pandemic fall below 18.0%? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2049-when-will-the-percentage-of-adults-in-us-households-that-are-teleworking-because-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-fall-below-18-0 | 0 |
| 181 | 185 | How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2050-how-many-thousand-tonnes-kt-of-paper-and-paperboard-will-be-produced-globally-in-2021 | 0 |
| 182 | 186 | When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2047-when-will-covid-19-cases-caused-by-the-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-exceed-350-000-in-the-uk | 0 |
| 183 | 187 | Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2045-will-the-closing-price-of-brent-crude-oil-be-higher-than-70-00-per-barrel-on-30-december-2021 | 0 |
| 184 | 188 | What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2048-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-headline-inflation-in-the-us-as-measured-by-the-consumer-price-index-cpi-in-june-2022 | 0 |
| 185 | 189 | At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2041-at-close-of-business-on-3-november-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021 | 0 |
| 186 | 190 | When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2046-when-will-the-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-first-represent-more-than-67-0-of-covid-cases-in-the-us | 0 |
| 187 | 191 | What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2044-what-will-be-the-global-price-of-wheat-in-november-2021-according-to-the-imf | 0 |
| 188 | 192 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2040-what-will-be-the-closing-value-of-the-s-p-500-index-on-30-june-2022 | 0 |
| 189 | 193 | Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2038-before-1-january-2022-will-the-us-intelligence-community-publicly-state-that-a-laboratory-accident-is-a-more-probable-scenario-for-the-inception-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-than-it-having-emerged-naturally-through-contact-with-infected-animals | 0 |
| 190 | 194 | What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2032-what-will-us-holiday-season-retail-sales-be-for-2021-relative-to-the-2020-holiday-season | 0 |
| 191 | 195 | When will people in Guangdong no longer be required to show a negative COVID-19 test in order to leave the Chinese province? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2034-when-will-people-in-guangdong-no-longer-be-required-to-show-a-negative-covid-19-test-in-order-to-leave-the-chinese-province | 0 |
| 192 | 196 | Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2037-which-country-will-win-the-2020-olympic-gold-medal-in-women-s-football-soccer | 0 |
| 193 | 197 | Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2033-will-any-four-week-average-of-us-field-production-of-crude-oil-exceed-12-million-b-d-in-2021 | 0 |
| 194 | 198 | Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2036-will-great-britain-win-more-gold-medals-at-the-2020-olympics-than-the-people-s-republic-of-china | 0 |
| 195 | 199 | Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in men’s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2035-which-country-will-win-the-2020-olympic-gold-medal-in-men-s-synchronized-3-meter-springboard-diving | 0 |
| 196 | 200 | What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2030-what-will-be-the-us-domestic-box-office-gross-in-the-opening-weekend-for-the-next-james-bond-film-no-time-to-die | 0 |
| 197 | 201 | How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2028-how-many-total-major-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-will-occur-in-the-atlantic-ocean-in-the-2021-hurricane-season-according-to-the-national-hurricane-center | 0 |
| 198 | 202 | When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2031-when-will-the-uk-have-vaccinated-80-or-more-of-its-18-and-over-population-with-a-full-course-of-a-covid-19-vaccine | 0 |
| 199 | 203 | Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2018-will-nfl-quarterback-aaron-rodgers-sign-a-player-contract-with-an-nfl-team-other-than-the-green-bay-packers-before-9-september-2021 | 0 |
| 200 | 204 | Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2020-will-the-us-civilian-labor-force-participation-rate-reach-or-exceed-63-0-for-any-month-in-2021 | 0 |
| 201 | 205 | Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2022-which-major-cryptocurrency-will-perform-best-between-27-may-2021-and-29-november-2021 | 0 |
| 202 | 206 | Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2016-before-22-july-2021-will-hamas-or-the-israeli-government-accuse-the-other-of-violating-the-gaza-ceasefire-agreed-to-on-20-may-2021 | 0 |
| 203 | 207 | What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2017-what-will-be-the-annualized-rate-of-housing-starts-for-october-2021 | 0 |
| 204 | 208 | Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2011-before-8-january-2022-will-facebook-allow-donald-trump-to-post-on-facebook-and-or-instagram-from-any-of-his-verified-accounts | 0 |
| 205 | 209 | Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2009-will-the-us-announce-a-reduction-or-elimination-of-total-punitive-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 206 | 210 | Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2007-before-1-september-2021-will-justice-stephen-breyer-announce-his-retirement-from-the-us-supreme-court | 0 |
| 207 | 211 | What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2006-what-will-president-biden-s-approval-rating-be-as-of-13-august-2021-according-to-fivethirtyeight | 0 |
| 208 | 212 | Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2010-before-14-december-2021-will-the-world-trade-organization-wto-officially-agree-to-grant-waivers-for-intellectual-property-protections-for-covid-19-vaccine-technology | 0 |
| 209 | 214 | When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2004-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-40-million-or-more-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-india | 0 |
| 210 | 215 | Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2005-will-a-new-collective-bargaining-agreement-cba-between-major-league-baseball-and-the-major-league-baseball-players-association-be-ratified-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 211 | 216 | How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2003-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-authorized-for-emergency-use-or-approved-by-the-us-fda-as-of-31-december-2021 | 0 |
| 212 | 217 | Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2002-will-us-print-book-sales-in-2021-exceed-those-in-2020 | 0 |
| 213 | 218 | At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1994-at-close-of-business-on-22-september-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021 | 0 |
| 214 | 219 | Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1993-before-16-december-2021-will-the-federal-reserve-announce-it-will-reduce-its-monthly-quantitative-easing-bond-buying | 0 |
| 215 | 220 | Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1995-will-us-federal-legislation-implementing-or-authorizing-a-mandatory-carbon-pricing-mechanism-become-law-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 216 | 221 | Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1991-between-30-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-times-will-the-council-of-the-european-union-impose-new-restrictive-measures-sanctions-on-china-over-human-rights-violations-and-abuses-in-xinjiang | 0 |
| 217 | 222 | Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1992-will-the-presidents-of-russia-and-ukraine-meet-in-person-before-1-august-2021 | 0 |
| 218 | 223 | Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1982-before-1-january-2022-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-engage-in-a-confrontation-with-hong-kongers | 0 |
| 219 | 224 | Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1989-between-16-april-2021-and-31-december-2021-will-asml-obtain-an-export-license-from-the-netherlands-to-export-an-extreme-ultraviolet-euv-lithography-system-to-the-people-s-republic-of-china | 0 |
| 220 | 225 | Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1987-following-the-2021-german-bundestag-elections-which-parties-will-be-part-of-the-new-government | 0 |
| 221 | 226 | What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1988-what-will-happen-next-regarding-new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo | 0 |
| 222 | 227 | What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1986-what-will-be-saudi-arabia-s-crude-oil-production-for-july-2021-according-to-opec | 0 |
| 223 | 228 | What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1981-what-will-be-the-chinese-renminbi-s-share-as-a-global-payments-currency-in-december-2021-according-to-swift | 0 |
| 224 | 229 | Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1984-before-1-january-2022-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-limit-or-prohibit-us-federal-funds-from-being-used-to-purchase-face-recognition-technology | 0 |
| 225 | 230 | Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1985-will-the-eu-establish-a-moratorium-or-ban-on-the-use-of-facial-recognition-systems-frs-in-public-spaces-by-public-authorities-in-premises-meant-for-education-and-healthcare-and-or-by-law-enforcement-in-semi-public-spaces-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 226 | 231 | Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1973-will-scott-morrison-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-australia-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 227 | 232 | Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1974-will-legislation-raising-the-us-federal-minimum-wage-become-law-before-20-august-2021 | 0 |
| 228 | 233 | Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1975-will-berlin-s-humboldt-forum-open-to-the-general-public-before-1-august-2021 | 0 |
| 229 | 234 | Will the UN, a UN agency, and/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1972-will-the-un-a-un-agency-and-or-oecd-member-country-publicly-accuse-myanmar-defense-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-using-a-toxic-chemical-against-protesters-to-cause-intentional-death-or-physical-harm-through-its-toxic-properties-before-15-september-2021 | 0 |
| 230 | 235 | What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1969-what-will-be-the-gross-proceeds-for-special-purpose-acquisition-company-spac-ipo-transactions-in-2021 | 0 |
| 231 | 236 | At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1970-at-close-of-business-on-28-july-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021 | 0 |
| 232 | 237 | What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1968-what-will-be-the-fao-food-price-index-for-december-2021 | 0 |
| 233 | 238 | What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 | 0 |
| 234 | 239 | Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 | 0 |
| 235 | 240 | What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading | 0 |
| 236 | 241 | Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km | 0 |
| 237 | 242 | Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 | 0 |
| 238 | 243 | Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 | 0 |
| 239 | 244 | Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts | 0 |
| 240 | 245 | Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations | 0 |
| 241 | 246 | What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 | 0 |
| 242 | 247 | What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 | 0 |
| 243 | 248 | Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 244 | 249 | Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 245 | 250 | Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp | 0 |
| 246 | 251 | Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa | 0 |
| 247 | 252 | Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 | 0 |
| 248 | 253 | Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 249 | 254 | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 250 | 255 | Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 251 | 256 | Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 | 0 |
| 252 | 257 | Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship | 0 |
| 253 | 258 | Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities | 0 |
| 254 | 259 | Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 | 0 |
| 255 | 260 | Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union | 0 |
| 256 | 261 | How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 | 0 |
| 257 | 262 | What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 | 0 |
| 258 | 263 | Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 | 0 |
| 259 | 264 | Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 | 0 |
| 260 | 265 | Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea | 0 |
| 261 | 266 | Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 | 0 |
| 262 | 267 | How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections | 0 |
| 263 | 268 | When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election | 0 |
| 264 | 269 | Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 | 0 |
| 265 | 270 | What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 | 0 |
| 266 | 271 | Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 | 0 |
| 267 | 272 | Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 268 | 273 | Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union | 0 |
| 269 | 274 | Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 270 | 275 | Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 | 0 |
| 271 | 276 | At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world | 0 |
| 272 | 277 | What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 | 0 |
| 273 | 278 | Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 | 0 |
| 274 | 279 | Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin | 0 |
| 275 | 280 | Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 276 | 281 | Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 277 | 282 | Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china | 0 |
| 278 | 283 | Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers | 0 |
| 279 | 284 | Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 | 0 |
| 280 | 285 | Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher | 0 |
| 281 | 286 | Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 | 0 |
| 282 | 287 | Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil | 0 |
| 283 | 288 | In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count | 0 |
| 284 | 289 | Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws | 0 |
| 285 | 290 | Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 | 0 |
| 286 | 291 | Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir | 0 |
| 287 | 292 | Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct | 0 |
| 288 | 293 | Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 | 0 |
| 289 | 294 | Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom | 0 |
| 290 | 295 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 291 | 296 | Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 | 0 |
| 292 | 297 | Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics | 0 |
| 293 | 298 | How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 | 0 |
| 294 | 299 | Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month | 0 |
| 295 | 300 | Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used | 0 |
| 296 | 301 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6730/dogecoin-worth-1-on-2025-01-01/ | 0 |
| 297 | 302 | Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/ | 0 |
| 298 | 303 | How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/ | 0 |
| 299 | 304 | When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/ | 0 |
| 300 | 305 | Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/ | 0 |
| 301 | 306 | Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 302 | 307 | What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ | 0 |
| 303 | 308 | How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/ | 0 |
| 304 | 309 | Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7119/vaccine-for-children-under-12-before-1-sept/ | 0 |
| 305 | 310 | Will GB rowing men's team win a sweep gold at Tokyo 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7073/gb-rowing-at-olympics/ | 0 |
| 306 | 311 | What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 307 | 312 | Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/ | 0 |
| 308 | 313 | When will India become a World Bank high-income country? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/ | 0 |
| 309 | 314 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/ | 0 |
| 310 | 315 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7060/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-foods-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 311 | 316 | [Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7499/adams-performance-in-nyc-mayoral-primary/ | 0 |
| 312 | 317 | Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/ | 0 |
| 313 | 318 | When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/ | 0 |
| 314 | 319 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7369/cpi-u-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 315 | 320 | Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 316 | 321 | Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/ | 0 |
| 317 | 322 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 318 | 323 | What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by India by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by India occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7510/countervalue-detonation-by-india-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 319 | 324 | Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/ | 0 |
| 320 | 325 | Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 321 | 326 | What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7411/nuclear-detonations-on-battlefield-targets/ | 0 |
| 322 | 327 | When will a computer program be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7398/when-will-computers-be-competent-programmers/ | 0 |
| 323 | 328 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7295/coalition-to-win-australian-federal-election/ | 0 |
| 324 | 329 | Will the MOVE Index breach 70 before 11-01-21? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7378/move-index-above-70-before-november/ | 0 |
| 325 | 330 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7428/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2030/ | 0 |
| 326 | 331 | What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ | 0 |
| 327 | 332 | Before 2030, will mainstream news media report that alien technology has visited our solar system? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7384/alien-tech-in-solar-system-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 328 | 333 | How large will Monaco be in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 329 | 334 | When will Good Ventures first donate 5% of Dustin Moskovitz's wealth in one year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7336/good-ventures-donations-5-of-assets/ | 0 |
| 330 | 335 | Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/ | 0 |
| 331 | 336 | When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/ | 0 |
| 332 | 337 | Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/ | 0 |
| 333 | 338 | Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 334 | 339 | When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/ | 0 |
| 335 | 340 | How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/ | 0 |
| 336 | 341 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 337 | 342 | Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7065/us-sale-of-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 338 | 343 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7366/initial-jobless-claims-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 339 | 344 | Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/ | 0 |
| 340 | 345 | When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/ | 0 |
| 341 | 346 | Will there be a full year with no open stock exchanges in the US by 2120? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7333/no-us-stock-exchange-for-1-year-by-2120/ | 0 |
| 342 | 347 | What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Hispanic Virginians be in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7121/vaccination-rate-ratios-hispanic-virginians/ | 0 |
| 343 | 348 | How many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6142/us-states-with-gini-scores-5-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 344 | 349 | How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2030 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7195/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 345 | 350 | How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be at the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7462/deployed-nuclear-weapons-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 346 | 351 | What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/ | 0 |
| 347 | 352 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/ | 0 |
| 348 | 353 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7050/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ | 0 |
| 349 | 354 | Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 350 | 355 | Will an anthropogenic disaster happen in China before one happens in India? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6946/anthropogenic-disasters-china-vs-india/ | 0 |
| 351 | 356 | Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/ | 0 |
| 352 | 357 | In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7135/7-day-avg-of-1-august-covid-tests-in-va/ | 0 |
| 353 | 358 | When will a peanut, soy, or wheat-based product that is successfully de-allergenized first be for sale in the United States or any European Union-member state? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7042/us-allergy-free-wheatsoypeanut-before-eu/ | 0 |
| 354 | 359 | When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ | 0 |
| 355 | 360 | Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7220/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q3/ | 0 |
| 356 | 362 | For the month of August 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7362/non-farm-payroll-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 357 | 363 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/ | 0 |
| 358 | 364 | If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/ | 0 |
| 359 | 365 | What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians be in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7120/vaccination-rate-ratios-black-virginians/ | 0 |
| 360 | 366 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7049/2022-non-exit-investment-in-cultivated-meat/ | 0 |
| 361 | 367 | What will Peru's GDP per capita (PPP) be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7383/peru-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 362 | 368 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/ | 0 |
| 363 | 369 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 364 | 370 | Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and Russia before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-clash-between-us-and-russia/ | 0 |
| 365 | 371 | What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/ | 0 |
| 366 | 372 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/ | 0 |
| 367 | 373 | If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/ | 0 |
| 368 | 374 | Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/ | 0 |
| 369 | 375 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/ | 0 |
| 370 | 376 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7162/derek-chauvin-to-be-tried-again-for-homicide/ | 0 |
| 371 | 377 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/ | 0 |
| 372 | 378 | What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/ | 0 |
| 373 | 379 | Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/ | 0 |
| 374 | 380 | How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/ | 0 |
| 375 | 381 | Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 376 | 382 | Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 377 | 383 | Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Russia and China before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7450/deadly-clash-between-russia-and-china/ | 0 |
| 378 | 384 | When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/ | 0 |
| 379 | 385 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 380 | 386 | What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 381 | 387 | If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7332/money-offered-through-ea-prize-platform/ | 0 |
| 382 | 388 | When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/ | 0 |
| 383 | 389 | When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/ | 0 |
| 384 | 390 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7360/cpi-u-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 385 | 391 | Will Coinbase default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7237/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-coinbase/ | 0 |
| 386 | 392 | What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 387 | 393 | When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/ | 0 |
| 388 | 394 | In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new COVID-19 testing encounters on 1 October 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7136/7-day-avg-of-1-october-covid-tests-in-va/ | 0 |
| 389 | 395 | When will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6016/when-will-us-jobless-claims-fall-below-300k/ | 0 |
| 390 | 396 | Will an offensive nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 391 | 397 | When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/ | 0 |
| 392 | 398 | What will real Gross World Product be in 2200, in trillions of 2020 US$? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7498/gwp-in-2200-in-trillions-of-us/ | 0 |
| 393 | 399 | When will the 10,000th human reach space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/ | 0 |
| 394 | 400 | Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 395 | 401 | When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/ | 0 |
| 396 | 402 | What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/ | 0 |
| 397 | 403 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7355/us-building-permits-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 398 | 404 | What will real Gross World Product be in 2100, in trillions of 2020 US$? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7497/gwp-in-2100-in-trillions-of-us/ | 0 |
| 399 | 405 | Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7481/sp-500-to-move-more-than-15-in-day-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 400 | 406 | How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 401 | 407 | Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/ | 0 |
| 402 | 408 | When will the UK have sequenced 10M people in a research biobank? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7508/10m-people-in-a-uk-biobank/ | 0 |
| 403 | 409 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7154/us-forgive-10k-student-debt-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 404 | 410 | When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | 0 |
| 405 | 411 | By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 406 | 412 | Kessler syndrome by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 407 | 413 | What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7351/crude-oil-stock-change-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 408 | 414 | Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/ | 0 |
| 409 | 415 | What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 410 | 416 | Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6837/taylor-swift-album-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 411 | 417 | Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 412 | 418 | Will one government govern 80% of Earth's population and economy by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7329/earth-government-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 413 | 419 | What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7180/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-june-2021/ | 0 |
| 414 | 420 | What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7389/biden--trump-us-google-search-ratio-q3-2022/ | 0 |
| 415 | 421 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/ | 0 |
| 416 | 422 | In Virginia, what will be the 7-day moving average of new confirmed and probable cases on 1 August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7127/7-day-avg-of-new-virginia-cases-on-1-august/ | 0 |
| 417 | 423 | If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 418 | 424 | Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/ | 0 |
| 419 | 425 | How many people will take the EA survey in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7318/ea-survey-responses-2030/ | 0 |
| 420 | 426 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6944/2024-us-election-results-not-certified/ | 0 |
| 421 | 427 | How many annual deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections will have been estimated by the CDC to occurred in 2021 in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7046/-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections/ | 0 |
| 422 | 428 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on healthcare in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7341/percent-of-gdp-us-spends-on-healthcare-2035/ | 0 |
| 423 | 429 | Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/ | 0 |
| 424 | 430 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7039/2026-investment-in-plant-based-food-companies/ | 0 |
| 425 | 431 | How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7464/black-carbon-in-troposphere-after-nuclear-war/ | 0 |
| 426 | 432 | When will AIs program programs that can program AIs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/ | 0 |
| 427 | 433 | What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6929/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ | 0 |
| 428 | 434 | In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ | 0 |
| 429 | 435 | How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 430 | 436 | Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between India and China before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7451/deadly-clash-between-china-and-india/ | 0 |
| 431 | 437 | When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/ | 0 |
| 432 | 438 | When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/ | 0 |
| 433 | 439 | When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/ | 0 |
| 434 | 440 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7215/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf/ | 0 |
| 435 | 441 | Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 436 | 442 | What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 437 | 443 | Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/ | 0 |
| 438 | 444 | Who will first land a person on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/ | 0 |
| 439 | 445 | Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ | 0 |
| 440 | 446 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/ | 0 |
| 441 | 447 | Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 442 | 448 | Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6554/astral-codex-ten-mentions-this-question/ | 0 |
| 443 | 449 | Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/ | 0 |
| 444 | 450 | What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7363/us-durable-goods-orders-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 445 | 451 | If the EU bans all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens, what date will be set as the phase out deadline? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7496/when-will-the-eu-phase-out-cages/ | 0 |
| 446 | 452 | Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 447 | 453 | Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/ | 0 |
| 448 | 454 | Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7246/water-shortage-in-the-us-2021/ | 0 |
| 449 | 455 | Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/ | 0 |
| 450 | 456 | How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7018/agi-before-or-after-gwp-growth-rate-of-25/ | 0 |
| 451 | 457 | Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/ | 0 |
| 452 | 458 | Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/ | 0 |
| 453 | 459 | What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7359/industrial-production-index-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 454 | 460 | When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7241/taiwan-covid-predictions-june-2021/ | 0 |
| 455 | 461 | If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/ | 0 |
| 456 | 462 | Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | 0 |
| 457 | 463 | When will the US-EU border reopen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6664/us-eu-border-to-reopen/ | 0 |
| 458 | 464 | Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 459 | 465 | How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/ | 0 |
| 460 | 466 | Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 461 | 467 | Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/ | 0 |
| 462 | 468 | Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ | 0 |
| 463 | 469 | What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 464 | 470 | How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7396/ea-forum-value-drift-2026/ | 0 |
| 465 | 472 | Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 466 | 473 | Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 467 | 474 | Will Polymarket default on an obligation to hand over their users’ USDC on request or wrongly resolve a market by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7240/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-polymarket/ | 0 |
| 468 | 475 | When will a computer program be credited as an artist of at least ten pages of content in Weekly Shonen Jump? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7483/ai-artist-to-be-credited-in-shonen-jump/ | 0 |
| 469 | 476 | Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7225/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q6/ | 0 |
| 470 | 477 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ | 0 |
| 471 | 478 | Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/ | 0 |
| 472 | 479 | When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | 0 |
| 473 | 480 | Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/ | 0 |
| 474 | 481 | Will the price of Bitcoin fall below $10 before 2121? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7207/bitcoin-to-fall-to-near-zero-by-2121/ | 0 |
| 475 | 482 | When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7024/ai-to-beat-humans-on-metaculus/ | 0 |
| 476 | 483 | When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/first-human-in-vitro-gametogenesis/ | 0 |
| 477 | 484 | Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 478 | 485 | Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/ | 0 |
| 479 | 486 | If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 480 | 487 | Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/ | 0 |
| 481 | 488 | Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/ | 0 |
| 482 | 489 | Tesla's 2025 vehicle production? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/ | 0 |
| 483 | 490 | What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/ | 0 |
| 484 | 491 | Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/ | 0 |
| 485 | 492 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7348/total-retail-sales-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 486 | 493 | When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/ | 0 |
| 487 | 494 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/ | 0 |
| 488 | 495 | Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/ | 0 |
| 489 | 496 | Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7063/3-year-livestock-subsidies-to-fall-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 490 | 497 | What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7372/us-michigan-csi-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 491 | 498 | Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/ | 0 |
| 492 | 499 | Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 493 | 500 | Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 494 | 501 | Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/ | 0 |
| 495 | 502 | Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 496 | 503 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7440/us-southwest-border-encounters-in-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 497 | 504 | Will Jannik Sinner be the first man born in the 2000s to win a slam in Tennis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6887/jannik-sinner-first-gen-x-slam-winner/ | 0 |
| 498 | 505 | What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/ | 0 |
| 499 | 506 | Will soybeans be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7041/soy-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 500 | 507 | Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 501 | 508 | Will a DNA-sequencing read-length record of over 5,000,000 bases be achieved before January 1st, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4745/dna-sequencing-read-length-5-mb-before-22/ | 0 |
| 502 | 509 | Will the VIX Index see an increase of more than 5 points within a week after the posting of July, August, or September's Non-Farm Payroll numbers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7377/change-in-vix-by-5-after-nfp-numbers/ | 0 |
| 503 | 510 | Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/ | 0 |
| 504 | 511 | When will at least 5 cultivated meat products be approved by federal regulators for commercial sale in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7064/5-cultivated-meat-products-sell-in-the-us/ | 0 |
| 505 | 512 | When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/ | 0 |
| 506 | 513 | Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7437/quantum-random-number-cryptocurrency/ | 0 |
| 507 | 514 | Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between the US and China before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7403/deadly-clash-between-the-us-and-china/ | 0 |
| 508 | 515 | When will the number of Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations in the US have declined by 90% relative to 2020 levels? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7319/date-of-decline-of-cafos-by-90/ | 0 |
| 509 | 516 | Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 510 | 517 | What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7370/eia-crude-oil-stock-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 511 | 518 | How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ | 0 |
| 512 | 519 | Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/ | 0 |
| 513 | 520 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7346/initial-jobless-claims-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 514 | 521 | Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7068/meat-or-dairy-tax-in-the-us-or-eu-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 515 | 522 | When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/ | 0 |
| 516 | 523 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7468/major-famine-in-north-korea-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 517 | 524 | What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/ | 0 |
| 518 | 525 | What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims (in thousands) filed in August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7357/initial-jobless-claims-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 519 | 526 | Will Soylent-like meal replacements be labeled unhealthy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6967/soylent-and-health/ | 0 |
| 520 | 527 | Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/ | 0 |
| 521 | 528 | What will be the EIA crude oil stock change for commercial crude oil inventories in August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7361/eia-crude-oil-stock-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 522 | 529 | Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/ | 0 |
| 523 | 530 | When will space mining be profitable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/ | 0 |
| 524 | 531 | How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 525 | 532 | How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/ | 0 |
| 526 | 533 | Will we reach the island of stability by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 527 | 534 | Will commercial animal farming be prohibited in the US by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7334/us-commercial-animal-farming-ban-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 528 | 535 | Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 529 | 536 | Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/ | 0 |
| 530 | 537 | Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/ | 0 |
| 531 | 538 | How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 532 | 539 | When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/ | 0 |
| 533 | 540 | What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 534 | 541 | Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/ | 0 |
| 535 | 543 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Scientific Research in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7420/open-phil-scientific-research-grants-2030/ | 0 |
| 536 | 544 | BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/ | 0 |
| 537 | 545 | If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/ | 0 |
| 538 | 546 | When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ | 0 |
| 539 | 547 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7367/total-retail-sales-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 540 | 548 | Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 541 | 549 | Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 542 | 550 | Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/ | 0 |
| 543 | 551 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7226/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ | 0 |
| 544 | 552 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/ | 0 |
| 545 | 553 | Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7405/us-fatality-from-nuclear-weapon-detonation/ | 0 |
| 546 | 554 | How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 547 | 555 | Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/ | 0 |
| 548 | 556 | Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/ | 0 |
| 549 | 557 | Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/ | 0 |
| 550 | 558 | How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin by 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7445/us-states-decriminalizing-psilocybin-by-2027/ | 0 |
| 551 | 559 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at year end 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7444/elon-musk-worlds-richest-person-2025/ | 0 |
| 552 | 560 | How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6596/giving-what-we-can-memberships-on-2029-11-15/ | 0 |
| 553 | 561 | If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Republicans? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7244/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-republican/ | 0 |
| 554 | 562 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 555 | 563 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/ | 0 |
| 556 | 564 | Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7138/boris-johnson-uk-pm-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 557 | 565 | In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 cases? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7124/monthly-peak-in-new-covid-cases-in-virginia/ | 0 |
| 558 | 566 | Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 559 | 567 | How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/ | 0 |
| 560 | 568 | Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7291/elizabeth-holmes-convicted-of-theranos-fraud/ | 0 |
| 561 | 569 | How high will the U.S.' total dependency ratio be in 2039? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7432/united-states-future-age-structure/ | 0 |
| 562 | 570 | Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7223/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q1/ | 0 |
| 563 | 571 | Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 564 | 572 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7441/draft-registration-for-women-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 565 | 573 | What will the total retail sales including food services be for August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7358/total-retail-sales-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 566 | 574 | What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7116/-virginia-pop-with-1-vaccine-dose-on-1-aug/ | 0 |
| 567 | 575 | What will the US Q3 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7374/us-gdp-growth-q3-2021/ | 0 |
| 568 | 576 | Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 569 | 577 | Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7494/uk-third-wave/ | 0 |
| 570 | 578 | Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/ | 0 |
| 571 | 579 | Will there be a very large-scale power outage in continental Europe synchronous grid (> 10 m people affected for more than > 1 hour in several countries) before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6694/continental-europe-blackout-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 572 | 580 | What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 573 | 581 | What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6932/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/ | 0 |
| 574 | 582 | Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6981/russian-annexation-of-ukrainian-territory/ | 0 |
| 575 | 583 | On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7163/variant-of-high-consequence-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 576 | 584 | When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/ | 0 |
| 577 | 585 | Will Huobi default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7239/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-huobi/ | 0 |
| 578 | 586 | Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7222/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q2/ | 0 |
| 579 | 587 | When will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose reach 75%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7117/when-will-75-virginians-have-1-vaccine-dose/ | 0 |
| 580 | 588 | Will BitMEX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7238/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitmex/ | 0 |
| 581 | 589 | What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/ | 0 |
| 582 | 590 | Will Freedom House report that internet freedom has declined every year until 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7335/internet-freedom-to-decline-until-2025/ | 0 |
| 583 | 591 | Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 584 | 592 | How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/ | 0 |
| 585 | 593 | What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 586 | 594 | Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/ | 0 |
| 587 | 595 | Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 588 | 596 | Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 589 | 597 | Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/ | 0 |
| 590 | 598 | When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/ | 0 |
| 591 | 599 | If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 592 | 600 | When will India send their first own astronauts to space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/ | 0 |
| 593 | 601 | Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ | 0 |
| 594 | 602 | How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/ | 0 |
| 595 | 604 | When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/ | 0 |
| 596 | 605 | Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 597 | 606 | Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 598 | 607 | On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/ | 0 |
| 599 | 608 | Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/ | 0 |
| 600 | 609 | When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/ | 0 |
| 601 | 610 | What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7364/us-michigan-csi-august-2021/ | 0 |
| 602 | 611 | When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/ | 0 |
| 603 | 612 | If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 604 | 613 | When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/ | 0 |
| 605 | 615 | Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7452/will-there-be-a-us-russia-war-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 606 | 616 | When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/ | 0 |
| 607 | 617 | When will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope be launched? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7299/roman-space-telescope-launch-date/ | 0 |
| 608 | 618 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 609 | 619 | What will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Asian and Pacific Islander Virginians be in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7122/vaccination-rate-ratios-aapi-virginians/ | 0 |
| 610 | 620 | Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/ | 0 |
| 611 | 621 | Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7316/exascale-connectome-mapped-by-june-2031/ | 0 |
| 612 | 622 | Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7492/sweden-to-have-extra-election-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 613 | 623 | Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 614 | 624 | Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/ | 0 |
| 615 | 625 | What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 616 | 626 | When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/ | 0 |
| 617 | 627 | Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/ | 0 |
| 618 | 628 | When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/ | 0 |
| 619 | 629 | How much will it cost to deliver a 1kg payload to the Surface of Mars in 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7107/cost-to-deliver-1kg-to-mars-in-2075/ | 0 |
| 620 | 630 | Will US greenhouse gas emissions be halved by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7155/us-climate-emissions-halved-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 621 | 631 | Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/ | 0 |
| 622 | 632 | How big will the Trade Signal Tournament prize pool be on 2021-09-30? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7465/trade-signal-tournament-prize-pool-2021-09-30/ | 0 |
| 623 | 633 | Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7537/250-deathsday-in-uk-third-wave/ | 0 |
| 624 | 634 | How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 625 | 635 | What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7349/industrial-production-index-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 626 | 636 | Will a CANZUK Free Movement Treaty be Adopted Before 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7217/canzuk-free-movement-zone-by-2029/ | 0 |
| 627 | 637 | When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6969/when-will-gwp-exceed-1-quadrillion-usd/ | 0 |
| 628 | 638 | What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7353/us-durable-goods-orders-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 629 | 639 | What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/ | 0 |
| 630 | 640 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 631 | 641 | What will be the lowest closing value for the E-Mini S&P 500 Future Continuous Contract in September? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7379/lowest-e-mini-sp-closing-value-in-september/ | 0 |
| 632 | 642 | When will Texas (ERCOT) next experience rotating electricity outages? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7391/next-texas-electricity-grid-outage/ | 0 |
| 633 | 644 | For the month of September 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly non-farm payroll number (in millions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7371/non-farm-payroll-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 634 | 645 | What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6933/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q3-2021/ | 0 |
| 635 | 646 | What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 636 | 647 | How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 637 | 648 | If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7402/war-between-russia-and-the-us-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 638 | 649 | Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/ | 0 |
| 639 | 650 | How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/ | 0 |
| 640 | 651 | Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/ | 0 |
| 641 | 652 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 642 | 653 | Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/ | 0 |
| 643 | 654 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/ | 0 |
| 644 | 655 | When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7019/world-over-1-million-covid-daily-cases/ | 0 |
| 645 | 656 | Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/ | 0 |
| 646 | 657 | What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Russia by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Russia occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7456/countervalue-detonations-by-russia-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 647 | 658 | If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/ | 0 |
| 648 | 659 | What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 649 | 660 | When will the price of Bitcoin first drop below $6481, 10% of the all-time high value? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7469/bitcoin-price-drop-below-6481/ | 0 |
| 650 | 661 | Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 651 | 662 | Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 652 | 663 | How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/ | 0 |
| 653 | 664 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 654 | 665 | What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 655 | 666 | What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7506/return-for-vgt-if-agi-arrives-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 656 | 667 | Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7442/geohot-ai-chip-released-to-consumers/ | 0 |
| 657 | 668 | How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/ | 0 |
| 658 | 669 | When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/ | 0 |
| 659 | 670 | Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 660 | 671 | Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/ | 0 |
| 661 | 672 | When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/ | 0 |
| 662 | 673 | Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/ | 0 |
| 663 | 674 | Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/ | 0 |
| 664 | 675 | Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101/forethought-foundation-to-flounder-by-25/ | 0 |
| 665 | 676 | Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 666 | 677 | Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7406/fatal-non-state-nuclear-detonation-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 667 | 678 | Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 668 | 679 | When will GTA VI be released in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/ | 0 |
| 669 | 680 | Will TBC complete two transit systems bigger than LVCC loop < 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6602/two-more-tbc-transit-systems--2030/ | 0 |
| 670 | 681 | Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/ | 0 |
| 671 | 682 | When will the number of functional artificial satellites in orbit exceed 5,000? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6662/date-earth-functional-satellites-exceed-5000/ | 0 |
| 672 | 683 | When will the Woke index in US elite media top? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/ | 0 |
| 673 | 684 | What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/ | 0 |
| 674 | 685 | When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/ | 0 |
| 675 | 686 | Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/ | 0 |
| 676 | 687 | Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7524/over-100k-cases-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 677 | 688 | Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 678 | 689 | Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/ | 0 |
| 679 | 690 | When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/ | 0 |
| 680 | 691 | What will be the price of gas on Ethereum one week after EIP-1559? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7177/gas-price-after-eip-1559/ | 0 |
| 681 | 692 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7324/date-of-sputnik-v-who-approval/ | 0 |
| 682 | 693 | When will the first company list on the Long-Term Stock Exchange? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7141/first-company-on-the-long-term-stock-exchange/ | 0 |
| 683 | 694 | When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/ | 0 |
| 684 | 695 | When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/ | 0 |
| 685 | 696 | When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/ | 0 |
| 686 | 697 | Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 687 | 698 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/ | 0 |
| 688 | 699 | When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/ | 0 |
| 689 | 700 | When will the world create the first Trillionaire? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/ | 0 |
| 690 | 701 | What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/ | 0 |
| 691 | 702 | Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/ | 0 |
| 692 | 703 | Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 693 | 704 | Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7037/korean-reunification-by-2045/ | 0 |
| 694 | 705 | Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7408/next-nuclear-detonation-after-conflict/ | 0 |
| 695 | 706 | What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/ | 0 |
| 696 | 707 | What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/ | 0 |
| 697 | 708 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7115/gavin-newsom-recall-election/ | 0 |
| 698 | 709 | Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/ | 0 |
| 699 | 710 | Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 700 | 711 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/ | 0 |
| 701 | 712 | Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7340/new-megadonor-in-ea-in-2026/ | 0 |
| 702 | 713 | What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/ | 0 |
| 703 | 714 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 704 | 715 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7198/sens-research-foundation-revenue-2021/ | 0 |
| 705 | 716 | When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/ | 0 |
| 706 | 717 | Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/ | 0 |
| 707 | 718 | Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/ | 0 |
| 708 | 719 | Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/ | 0 |
| 709 | 720 | When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/ | 0 |
| 710 | 721 | If a language model is trained with 5x more compute than GPT-3 by the end of 2022, will it be public to end users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6980/gpt-4-or-similar-public-by-end-of-2022/ | 0 |
| 711 | 722 | Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 712 | 723 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7327/open-phil-donations-2030/ | 0 |
| 713 | 724 | When will Nate Silver release his 2nd book? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7012/release-date-of-nate-silvers-2nd-book/ | 0 |
| 714 | 725 | Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/ | 0 |
| 715 | 726 | When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/ | 0 |
| 716 | 727 | What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7435/quantum-computing-private-funding/ | 0 |
| 717 | 728 | Will anyone be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin before 2060 in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7209/will-bitcoin-possession-be-illegal/ | 0 |
| 718 | 729 | Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 719 | 730 | Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/ | 0 |
| 720 | 731 | If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ | 0 |
| 721 | 732 | Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/ | 0 |
| 722 | 733 | Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 723 | 734 | How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/ | 0 |
| 724 | 735 | Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/ | 0 |
| 725 | 736 | Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/ | 0 |
| 726 | 737 | Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 727 | 738 | Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 728 | 739 | How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7413/size-of-state-nuclear-arsenals-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 729 | 740 | Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/ | 0 |
| 730 | 741 | Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/ | 0 |
| 731 | 742 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 732 | 743 | Will PsiQuantum have a commercial quantum computer by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7434/psiquantum-computer-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 733 | 744 | Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ | 0 |
| 734 | 745 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/ | 0 |
| 735 | 746 | Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 736 | 747 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6427/will-gb-news-be-broadcasting-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 737 | 748 | When will Ethereum be able to do 1000 transactions per second? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7251/1000-transactions-per-second-in-ethereum/ | 0 |
| 738 | 749 | Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/ | 0 |
| 739 | 750 | Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7542/over-200k-us-covid-daily-cases-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 740 | 751 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/ | 0 |
| 741 | 752 | How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/ | 0 |
| 742 | 753 | By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/ | 0 |
| 743 | 754 | When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/ | 0 |
| 744 | 755 | What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by China by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by China occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7459/countervalue-detonations-by-china-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 745 | 756 | Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/ | 0 |
| 746 | 757 | Will AI progress surprise us? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/ | 0 |
| 747 | 758 | Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7412/hemp-attack-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 748 | 759 | Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/ | 0 |
| 749 | 760 | By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/ | 0 |
| 750 | 761 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 751 | 762 | Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/ | 0 |
| 752 | 763 | What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 753 | 764 | What proportion of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by the US occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7458/countervalue-detonations-by-the-us-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 754 | 765 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7062/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-meats-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 755 | 766 | What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7368/industrial-production-index-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 756 | 767 | What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7350/cpi-u-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 757 | 768 | Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/ | 0 |
| 758 | 769 | When will Croatia adopt the euro? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/ | 0 |
| 759 | 770 | What will the VIX Index be on July's Non-Farm Payroll release date after closing? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7375/vix-index-post-julys-non-farm-payroll/ | 0 |
| 760 | 771 | Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 761 | 772 | Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | 0 |
| 762 | 773 | Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/ | 0 |
| 763 | 774 | What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/ | 0 |
| 764 | 775 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/ | 0 |
| 765 | 776 | Will global trade as a percentage of GWP exceed 61% by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7231/global-trade-exceeds-61-of-gwp-by-2026/ | 0 |
| 766 | 777 | Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 767 | 778 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 768 | 779 | When will a West Balkan state next join the EU? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7228/date-a-west-balkan-state-next-joins-the-eu/ | 0 |
| 769 | 780 | What proportion of offensive nuclear weapon detonations by Pakistan by 2050 will be countervalue, if any detonation by Pakistan occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7410/countervalue-detonations-by-pakistan-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 770 | 781 | When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/ | 0 |
| 771 | 782 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based meat companies in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7051/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-meat/ | 0 |
| 772 | 783 | Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 773 | 784 | Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1079/will-elon-musk-eventually-lose-his-appeal/ | 0 |
| 774 | 785 | Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6425/the-future-of-wallstreetbets/ | 0 |
| 775 | 786 | Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7129/will-virginia-achieve-herd-immunity/ | 0 |
| 776 | 787 | What will the global fertility rate be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 777 | 788 | Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/ | 0 |
| 778 | 789 | How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7048/2022-exit-investment-in-plant-based-food/ | 0 |
| 779 | 790 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 780 | 791 | Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ | 0 |
| 781 | 792 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7365/us-building-permits/ | 0 |
| 782 | 793 | How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 783 | 794 | What will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5887/pantones-color-of-the-year-for-2022/ | 0 |
| 784 | 795 | What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/ | 0 |
| 785 | 796 | When will the last US casino close? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6893/date-when-the-last-us-casino-will-close/ | 0 |
| 786 | 797 | What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/ | 0 |
| 787 | 798 | Will Bitcoin move away from proof-of-work by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7109/bitcoin-consensus-mechanism-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 788 | 799 | Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 789 | 800 | In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/ | 0 |
| 790 | 801 | What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7307/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 791 | 802 | When will at least a zettabyte of digital information be destroyed as the result of a single event? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7286/1021-bytes-destroyed-by-single-event/ | 0 |
| 792 | 803 | When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/ | 0 |
| 793 | 804 | How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 794 | 805 | How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/ | 0 |
| 795 | 806 | Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/ | 0 |
| 796 | 807 | Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7230/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-ftx/ | 0 |
| 797 | 808 | Will Bitfinex default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7236/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-bitfinex/ | 0 |
| 798 | 809 | Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7221/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q4/ | 0 |
| 799 | 810 | When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7025/when-will-insects-replace-fishmeal/ | 0 |
| 800 | 811 | Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/ | 0 |
| 801 | 812 | Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ | 0 |
| 802 | 813 | Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7053/brazil-to-lead-in-soybean-production-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 803 | 814 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/ | 0 |
| 804 | 815 | What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/ | 0 |
| 805 | 816 | How much higher will peer-reviewed U.S. methane emission measurements be compared to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s reported measurements in any 12 month period between 2021-2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7343/accuracy-of-epas-methane-emissions/ | 0 |
| 806 | 817 | Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's new COVID-19 cases during the week ending 1 August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7134/age-group-with-highest-share-cases/ | 0 |
| 807 | 818 | What will be China's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7005/gdp-of-china-for-2025/ | 0 |
| 808 | 819 | When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/ | 0 |
| 809 | 820 | How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/ | 0 |
| 810 | 821 | In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 811 | 822 | Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/ | 0 |
| 812 | 823 | When will China legalise same-sex marriage? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ | 0 |
| 813 | 824 | Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7099/silg-to-survive-the-mid-term/ | 0 |
| 814 | 825 | Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 815 | 826 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 816 | 827 | When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/ | 0 |
| 817 | 828 | What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be Chinese Yuan in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7296/chinese-yuan--of-cofer-q42031/ | 0 |
| 818 | 829 | Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/ | 0 |
| 819 | 830 | What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/ | 0 |
| 820 | 831 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/ | 0 |
| 821 | 832 | Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/ | 0 |
| 822 | 833 | Will semaglutide be a top 300 medicine in America before 2032? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7323/semaglutide-in-top-300-us-meds-before-2032/ | 0 |
| 823 | 834 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/ | 0 |
| 824 | 835 | Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/ | 0 |
| 825 | 837 | 2˚C global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 826 | 838 | When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/ | 0 |
| 827 | 839 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 828 | 840 | Tunnel vs. Wall | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/ | 0 |
| 829 | 841 | What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 830 | 842 | As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/ | 0 |
| 831 | 843 | Will the ICJ resolve the Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute in favour of Belize? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6984/belizeanguatemalan-territorial-dispute/ | 0 |
| 832 | 845 | What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/ | 0 |
| 833 | 846 | Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/ | 0 |
| 834 | 847 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/ | 0 |
| 835 | 848 | When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/ | 0 |
| 836 | 849 | When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/ | 0 |
| 837 | 850 | When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7234/hsv-1-vaccine-approved-by-fda/ | 0 |
| 838 | 851 | What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/ | 0 |
| 839 | 852 | When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/ | 0 |
| 840 | 853 | If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/ | 0 |
| 841 | 854 | How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 842 | 855 | Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 843 | 857 | What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4790/elon-musks-net-worth-at-the-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 844 | 858 | Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/ | 0 |
| 845 | 859 | Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 846 | 860 | Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7052/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 847 | 861 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 848 | 862 | Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/ | 0 |
| 849 | 863 | How far away is the nearest independent origination of life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7079/where-is-the-nearest-origin-of-et-life/ | 0 |
| 850 | 864 | Which age group will have the highest share of Virginia's COVID-19 hospitalizations during the week ending 1 August 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7133/age-group-with-highest-share-hospitalizations/ | 0 |
| 851 | 865 | Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 852 | 866 | LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/ | 0 |
| 853 | 867 | In 2050 what will be the all-time tennis slam singles record for men? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6890/all-time-tennis-slam-record-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 854 | 868 | When will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6956/first-circumlunar-human-spacex-flight/ | 0 |
| 855 | 869 | Will online poker die by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 856 | 870 | Will the next President of the United States be impeached? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/ | 0 |
| 857 | 871 | When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/ | 0 |
| 858 | 872 | Democracy in Crisis: How many free countries in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1438/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-free-countries-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 859 | 873 | Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/ | 0 |
| 860 | 874 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6886/djokovic-total-tennis-slams/ | 0 |
| 861 | 875 | Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/ | 0 |
| 862 | 876 | How many billionaires (in USD) will there be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6772/number-of-billionaires-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 863 | 877 | By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 864 | 878 | Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 865 | 879 | At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/ | 0 |
| 866 | 880 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 867 | 881 | If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/ | 0 |
| 868 | 882 | What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the U.S. in 2022 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7059/2022-retail-market-share-of-plant-based-milk/ | 0 |
| 869 | 883 | What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7328/global-democracy-share-2040/ | 0 |
| 870 | 884 | What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 871 | 886 | How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 872 | 887 | When will be the next S&P 500 correction? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/ | 0 |
| 873 | 888 | How much global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 874 | 889 | On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/ | 0 |
| 875 | 890 | When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ | 0 |
| 876 | 892 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7373/us-building-permits-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 877 | 893 | Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/ | 0 |
| 878 | 894 | What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/ | 0 |
| 879 | 895 | Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/ | 0 |
| 880 | 896 | In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/ | 0 |
| 881 | 897 | Will the first AGI be based on deep learning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/ | 0 |
| 882 | 898 | The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 883 | 899 | For the month of July 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7352/non-farm-payroll-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 884 | 900 | Will an incumbent traditional animal protein company take out a full-page ad that criticises plant-based, or cultivated meat, in either the NYT, WSJ or WaPo by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7058/anti-alt-food-adds-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 885 | 902 | How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7066/-countries-to-sell-cultivated-meat-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 886 | 903 | What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/ | 0 |
| 887 | 904 | Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/ | 0 |
| 888 | 905 | Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/ | 0 |
| 889 | 906 | If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/ | 0 |
| 890 | 907 | When will the first biological human to live to the age of 1000 be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7104/birthdate-of-the-first-human-to-live-to-1000/ | 0 |
| 891 | 908 | Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ | 0 |
| 892 | 909 | What will be the highest pixel resolution of commercially available optical satellite imagery, purchasable in a NATO country, in the year 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7344/resolution-of-commercial-satellites-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 893 | 910 | How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ | 0 |
| 894 | 911 | Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 895 | 912 | When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/ | 0 |
| 896 | 913 | Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/ | 0 |
| 897 | 914 | Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7224/israel-palestine-crisis-2021--q5/ | 0 |
| 898 | 915 | Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7057/turing-test-for-plant-based-meat-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 899 | 916 | In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 hospitalizations? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7125/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-hospitalizations/ | 0 |
| 900 | 917 | Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/ | 0 |
| 901 | 918 | When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/ | 0 |
| 902 | 919 | On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ | 0 |
| 903 | 920 | In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/ | 0 |
| 904 | 921 | Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | 0 |
| 905 | 922 | How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 906 | 923 | What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/ | 0 |
| 907 | 924 | When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/ | 0 |
| 908 | 925 | When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7032/awards-for-contributions-related-to-covid19/ | 0 |
| 909 | 926 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/ | 0 |
| 910 | 927 | Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ | 0 |
| 911 | 928 | What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/ | 0 |
| 912 | 929 | When will the US-Canada border reopen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7108/us-canada-border-to-reopen/ | 0 |
| 913 | 930 | When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/ | 0 |
| 914 | 931 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 915 | 932 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/ | 0 |
| 916 | 933 | Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/ | 0 |
| 917 | 934 | When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the U.K.? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7443/when-will-the-us-allow-travel-from-the-uk/ | 0 |
| 918 | 935 | When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/ | 0 |
| 919 | 936 | 13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/ | 0 |
| 920 | 937 | What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/ | 0 |
| 921 | 938 | Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 922 | 939 | Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/ | 0 |
| 923 | 940 | What will public knowledge be in the year 2061 of the highest pixel resolution, in centimeters, of a classified U.S. government optical satellite that was operational between 2011-2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7342/resolution-of-classified-us-satellites/ | 0 |
| 924 | 941 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6978/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-long-term-future/ | 0 |
| 925 | 942 | If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/ | 0 |
| 926 | 943 | When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6938/when-will-there-be-a-50b-parameter-dall-e/ | 0 |
| 927 | 944 | Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 928 | 945 | How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ | 0 |
| 929 | 946 | Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 930 | 947 | Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/ | 0 |
| 931 | 948 | What will Australia's net greenhouse gas emissions be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7093/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 932 | 949 | Will we find life on Mars by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/ | 0 |
| 933 | 950 | How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 934 | 951 | What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6928/aus-private-sector-wpi--change-for-q2-2021/ | 0 |
| 935 | 952 | What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 936 | 953 | When will the first autonomous, road legal, human carrying motorcycle be sold in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6812/first-autonomous-motorcycle-to-be-sold-in-usa/ | 0 |
| 937 | 954 | Will the world population increase every year for the next decade? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/ | 0 |
| 938 | 955 | What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/ | 0 |
| 939 | 956 | What Portion of Official Currency Reserve (COFER) will be US dollars in Q4 of 2031 according to the IMF? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7242/usd--of-cofer-q42021/ | 0 |
| 940 | 957 | Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/ | 0 |
| 941 | 958 | How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 942 | 959 | Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6502/javascripts-dominance-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 943 | 960 | How many paying customers will the most used romantic AI companion have by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7232/romantic-ai-companion-customers-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 944 | 961 | What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility be, by January 1st, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7036/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2023/ | 0 |
| 945 | 962 | By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 946 | 963 | Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/ | 0 |
| 947 | 964 | How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/ | 0 |
| 948 | 965 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/ | 0 |
| 949 | 966 | Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 950 | 967 | What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 951 | 968 | Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/ | 0 |
| 952 | 969 | How many people will take the EA survey in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7317/ea-survey-responses-2025/ | 0 |
| 953 | 970 | Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 954 | 971 | What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 955 | 972 | When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/ | 0 |
| 956 | 973 | Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 957 | 974 | Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 958 | 975 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the House of Representatives before January 15th 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7322/trump-to-be-souse-speaker-before-1152023/ | 0 |
| 959 | 976 | Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/ | 0 |
| 960 | 977 | Will any top 10 meat global processors/producers go bankrupt by 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7054/global-meat-producers-to-go-bankrupt-by-2028/ | 0 |
| 961 | 978 | Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 962 | 979 | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/ | 0 |
| 963 | 980 | Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6642/2021-eus-covid-19-deaths-to-exceed-uss/ | 0 |
| 964 | 981 | How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 965 | 982 | Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6827/a-supernova-in-the-milky-way-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 966 | 983 | What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7400/us-durable-goods-orders-september-2021/ | 0 |
| 967 | 984 | What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/ | 0 |
| 968 | 985 | When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/ | 0 |
| 969 | 986 | When will PHP die? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/ | 0 |
| 970 | 987 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 971 | 988 | What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 972 | 989 | Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/ | 0 |
| 973 | 990 | What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/ | 0 |
| 974 | 991 | Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/ | 0 |
| 975 | 992 | When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/ | 0 |
| 976 | 993 | Will Trump flee the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5655/will-trump-flee-the-united-states/ | 0 |
| 977 | 994 | When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/ | 0 |
| 978 | 995 | Will wheat be successfully de-allergenized by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7040/wheat-successfully-de-allergenized-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 979 | 996 | Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/ | 0 |
| 980 | 997 | Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 981 | 998 | In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/ | 0 |
| 982 | 999 | When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/ | 0 |
| 983 | 1000 | Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/ | 0 |
| 984 | 1002 | When will Sabaton release their tenth album? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7204/tenth-sabaton-album/ | 0 |
| 985 | 1003 | What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/ | 0 |
| 986 | 1004 | Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7097/family-planning-charity-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 987 | 1005 | Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 988 | 1006 | What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/ | 0 |
| 989 | 1007 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 990 | 1008 | What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7002/lowest-us-msrp-of-2030-tesla/ | 0 |
| 991 | 1009 | When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/ | 0 |
| 992 | 1010 | Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/ | 0 |
| 993 | 1011 | When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/ | 0 |
| 994 | 1012 | What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 995 | 1013 | Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 996 | 1014 | How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7045/-pigs-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ | 0 |
| 997 | 1015 | If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/ | 0 |
| 998 | 1016 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 999 | 1017 | Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1000 | 1018 | What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/ | 0 |
| 1001 | 1019 | Artificial drivers, real roads vs. real drivers, artificial roads | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/285/artificial-drives-real-roads-vs-real-drivers-artificial-roads/ | 0 |
| 1002 | 1020 | Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1003 | 1021 | When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/ | 0 |
| 1004 | 1022 | When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/ | 0 |
| 1005 | 1023 | Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/803/will-2048-bit-rsa-be-broken-before-256-bit-ecc/ | 0 |
| 1006 | 1024 | How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/ | 0 |
| 1007 | 1025 | How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/ | 0 |
| 1008 | 1026 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/ | 0 |
| 1009 | 1027 | What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/ | 0 |
| 1010 | 1028 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/ | 0 |
| 1011 | 1029 | What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/ | 0 |
| 1012 | 1030 | Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/ | 0 |
| 1013 | 1031 | Will Climeworks still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1014 | 1032 | Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/ | 0 |
| 1015 | 1033 | By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/ | 0 |
| 1016 | 1034 | Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/ | 0 |
| 1017 | 1035 | When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/ | 0 |
| 1018 | 1036 | By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1019 | 1037 | When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/ | 0 |
| 1020 | 1038 | How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/ | 0 |
| 1021 | 1039 | What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1022 | 1040 | What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/ | 0 |
| 1023 | 1041 | Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/ | 0 |
| 1024 | 1042 | Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1025 | 1043 | Will there be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7216/ai-sputnik-moment-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1026 | 1044 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 1027 | 1045 | When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/ | 0 |
| 1028 | 1046 | Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 1029 | 1047 | When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/ | 0 |
| 1030 | 1048 | Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/ | 0 |
| 1031 | 1049 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1032 | 1050 | Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/ | 0 |
| 1033 | 1051 | Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/ | 0 |
| 1034 | 1052 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1035 | 1053 | What will be the cumulative number of deaths in the US due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7161/cumulative-us-covid-deaths-by-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 1036 | 1054 | Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/ | 0 |
| 1037 | 1055 | Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/919/will-there-be-armed-conflict-between-racial-groups-in-south-africa-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1038 | 1056 | How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/ | 0 |
| 1039 | 1057 | When will at least two US states first disallow human-driven vehicles on public roads? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6448/two-states-ban-human-driven-vehicles/ | 0 |
| 1040 | 1058 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/ | 0 |
| 1041 | 1059 | Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/ | 0 |
| 1042 | 1060 | The end of the EU as we know it by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/ | 0 |
| 1043 | 1061 | Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/ | 0 |
| 1044 | 1062 | What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/ | 0 |
| 1045 | 1063 | What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/ | 0 |
| 1046 | 1064 | How many refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7027/total-refugee-admissions-2021-24/ | 0 |
| 1047 | 1065 | Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7106/carlsen-retains-the-world-championship-crown/ | 0 |
| 1048 | 1066 | When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/ | 0 |
| 1049 | 1067 | When will the first baby be born away from Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/ | 0 |
| 1050 | 1068 | Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1051 | 1069 | Will there be a 50% decline in global meat production by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7314/50by40-meat-production-goal-achieved/ | 0 |
| 1052 | 1070 | In Virginia, which month between May 2021 and March 2022 (inclusive) will have the highest number of new COVID-19 deaths? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7126/monthly-peak-in-new-virginia-covid-deaths/ | 0 |
| 1053 | 1071 | What will SpaceX be worth by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1054 | 1072 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/ | 0 |
| 1055 | 1073 | What proportion of the well-known QSRs will offer a cultivated meat product in 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7055/prop-of-qsr-with-cultivated-meat-in-2026/ | 0 |
| 1056 | 1074 | Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1139/will-a-scientific-mission-to-the-outer-solar-system-be-assigned-to-the-falcon-heavy-by-mid-2023/ | 0 |
| 1057 | 1075 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/ | 0 |
| 1058 | 1076 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1059 | 1077 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/ | 0 |
| 1060 | 1078 | Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/ | 0 |
| 1061 | 1079 | Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/ | 0 |
| 1062 | 1080 | Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/ | 0 |
| 1063 | 1081 | When will the James Webb telescope be launched? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7298/james-webb-telescope-launch-date/ | 0 |
| 1064 | 1082 | What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/ | 0 |
| 1065 | 1083 | Will any body of the US federal government conclude that COVID-19 originated in a lab in Hubei before June 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7211/us-conclude-covid-lab-leak-by-june-2022/ | 0 |
| 1066 | 1084 | Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/ | 0 |
| 1067 | 1085 | Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/ | 0 |
| 1068 | 1086 | What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7061/total-us-sales-of-plant-based-eggs-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 1069 | 1087 | What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1070 | 1088 | A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/ | 0 |
| 1071 | 1089 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7174/keir-starmer-labour-leadership-exit-date/ | 0 |
| 1072 | 1090 | Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ | 0 |
| 1073 | 1091 | What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/ | 0 |
| 1074 | 1092 | What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7178/us-building-permits-june-2021/ | 0 |
| 1075 | 1094 | Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1076 | 1095 | [Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/ | 0 |
| 1077 | 1096 | Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7113/fully-autonomous-tesla-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1078 | 1098 | Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/ | 0 |
| 1079 | 1099 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4914/trump-search-interest-in-jul-2024-vs-nov-2016/ | 0 |
| 1080 | 1100 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7419/open-phil-ai-grants-2030/ | 0 |
| 1081 | 1101 | How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7199/cost-to-store-1-tb-on-google-archive-2025/ | 0 |
| 1082 | 1102 | When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/ | 0 |
| 1083 | 1103 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6143/total-oil-demand-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1084 | 1104 | Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ | 0 |
| 1085 | 1105 | Will Mike Pence be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7083/mike-pence-2024-gop-presidential-nominee/ | 0 |
| 1086 | 1106 | Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/ | 0 |
| 1087 | 1107 | When will the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) definitely spot its first neutrino(s)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1054/when-will-the-indian-neutrino-observatory-ino-definitely-spot-its-first-neutrinos/ | 0 |
| 1088 | 1108 | Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1089 | 1109 | What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1090 | 1110 | When will workplaces reach baseline level in the state of Virginia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7137/va-workplace-activity-reach-baseline-lvl/ | 0 |
| 1091 | 1111 | Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1092 | 1112 | When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/ | 0 |
| 1093 | 1113 | When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/ | 0 |
| 1094 | 1114 | When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/ | 0 |
| 1095 | 1115 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1096 | 1117 | Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/ | 0 |
| 1097 | 1118 | Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1098 | 1119 | When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/date-song-first-streamed-4b-times-on-spotify/ | 0 |
| 1099 | 1120 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1100 | 1121 | If the UK leaves the EU, will there be a resurgence of the Troubles between Ireland and Northern Ireland? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2586/if-the-uk-leaves-the-eu-will-there-be-a-resurgence-of-the-troubles-between-ireland-and-northern-ireland/ | 0 |
| 1101 | 1122 | Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1102 | 1123 | Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/ | 0 |
| 1103 | 1124 | If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/ | 0 |
| 1104 | 1125 | How much money will GiveWell move in 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/ | 0 |
| 1105 | 1126 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/ | 0 |
| 1106 | 1127 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7326/open-phil-donations-2025/ | 0 |
| 1107 | 1128 | How many customers will make up the biggest paying customer base of any AI assistant software in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7247/customer-base-of-ai-assistants-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1108 | 1129 | What will the total capacity of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7081/carbon-capture-and-storage-potential-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1109 | 1130 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/ | 0 |
| 1110 | 1131 | Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1111 | 1132 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/ | 0 |
| 1112 | 1133 | When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/ | 0 |
| 1113 | 1134 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1114 | 1135 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 1115 | 1136 | Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050. | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1116 | 1137 | When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ | 0 |
| 1117 | 1138 | What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/ | 0 |
| 1118 | 1139 | Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/ | 0 |
| 1119 | 1140 | When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/ | 0 |
| 1120 | 1141 | Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1121 | 1142 | Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/ | 0 |
| 1122 | 1143 | If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/ | 0 |
| 1123 | 1144 | Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1124 | 1145 | Robocup Challenge | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/ | 0 |
| 1125 | 1146 | What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/ | 0 |
| 1126 | 1147 | When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | 0 |
| 1127 | 1148 | Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1128 | 1149 | Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/612/will-spacex-test-launch-the-bfr-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1129 | 1150 | Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1130 | 1151 | When will commercial supersonic flight return? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/ | 0 |
| 1131 | 1152 | How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7213/highest-paid-dead-celebrity-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1132 | 1153 | When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/ | 0 |
| 1133 | 1154 | Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/569/solar-storm-shield-begun-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1134 | 1155 | How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/ | 0 |
| 1135 | 1156 | When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/ | 0 |
| 1136 | 1157 | What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/ | 0 |
| 1137 | 1158 | When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/ | 0 |
| 1138 | 1159 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1139 | 1160 | How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ | 0 |
| 1140 | 1161 | When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/ | 0 |
| 1141 | 1162 | When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/ | 0 |
| 1142 | 1163 | Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1143 | 1164 | How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/ | 0 |
| 1144 | 1165 | How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/ | 0 |
| 1145 | 1166 | When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/ | 0 |
| 1146 | 1167 | Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/ | 0 |
| 1147 | 1168 | What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/ | 0 |
| 1148 | 1169 | What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/ | 0 |
| 1149 | 1170 | Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1150 | 1171 | Will the Open Courts Act become law? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/ | 0 |
| 1151 | 1172 | When will an AI pass the laugh test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/ | 0 |
| 1152 | 1173 | How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ | 0 |
| 1153 | 1174 | What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/ | 0 |
| 1154 | 1175 | Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/ | 0 |
| 1155 | 1176 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1156 | 1177 | What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/ | 0 |
| 1157 | 1178 | Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1158 | 1179 | Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1159 | 1180 | Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/health-agencies-to-claim-lab-escape-by-25/ | 0 |
| 1160 | 1181 | What will be the highest US debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4679/what-will-be-the-highest-us-debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-the-end-of-2023/ | 0 |
| 1161 | 1182 | What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/ | 0 |
| 1162 | 1183 | When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/ | 0 |
| 1163 | 1184 | When will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4292/ai-masters-poohsticks/ | 0 |
| 1164 | 1185 | Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/ | 0 |
| 1165 | 1186 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/ | 0 |
| 1166 | 1187 | Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/ | 0 |
| 1167 | 1188 | When will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6963/transplants-without-immunosuppressants/ | 0 |
| 1168 | 1189 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1169 | 1190 | How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1170 | 1191 | When will the next Qatari general election be held? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/ | 0 |
| 1171 | 1192 | When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/ | 0 |
| 1172 | 1193 | Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1173 | 1194 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1174 | 1195 | What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/ | 0 |
| 1175 | 1196 | When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/ | 0 |
| 1176 | 1197 | What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1177 | 1198 | When will China officially cease to be a socialist state? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/ | 0 |
| 1178 | 1199 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/ | 0 |
| 1179 | 1200 | How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1180 | 1201 | Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/ | 0 |
| 1181 | 1202 | Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1182 | 1203 | When will the first human mission to Venus take place? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/ | 0 |
| 1183 | 1204 | When will Xi Jinping leave power in China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/ | 0 |
| 1184 | 1205 | How many research papers on cultivated meat will be published in 2022, according to Semantic Scholar? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7043/new-cultivated-meat-publications-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1185 | 1206 | Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/ | 0 |
| 1186 | 1207 | Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/ | 0 |
| 1187 | 1208 | How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | 0 |
| 1188 | 1209 | How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/ | 0 |
| 1189 | 1210 | When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/ | 0 |
| 1190 | 1211 | Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1191 | 1212 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/ | 0 |
| 1192 | 1213 | Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/ | 0 |
| 1193 | 1214 | Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1194 | 1215 | When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ | 0 |
| 1195 | 1216 | What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/ | 0 |
| 1196 | 1217 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/ | 0 |
| 1197 | 1218 | What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/ | 0 |
| 1198 | 1219 | When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/ | 0 |
| 1199 | 1220 | When will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6414/when-will-varda-sell-first-space-made-item/ | 0 |
| 1200 | 1221 | What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/ | 0 |
| 1201 | 1222 | What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/ | 0 |
| 1202 | 1223 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6975/2025-donations-to-cause-prioritization/ | 0 |
| 1203 | 1224 | Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/ | 0 |
| 1204 | 1225 | Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1205 | 1226 | Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/ | 0 |
| 1206 | 1227 | How many cattle will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7044/-cattle-culled-due-to-outbreak-in-2021-23/ | 0 |
| 1207 | 1228 | Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1208 | 1229 | How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/ | 0 |
| 1209 | 1230 | Will the world still have nuclear weapons through 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1477/will-the-world-still-have-nuclear-weapons-through-2075/ | 0 |
| 1210 | 1232 | How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/ | 0 |
| 1211 | 1233 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6306/2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-at-least-10/ | 0 |
| 1212 | 1234 | How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1213 | 1235 | When will the next interstellar object be discovered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/ | 0 |
| 1214 | 1236 | When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/ | 0 |
| 1215 | 1237 | How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1216 | 1238 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1217 | 1239 | How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1218 | 1240 | Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/ | 0 |
| 1219 | 1241 | When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/ | 0 |
| 1220 | 1242 | How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1221 | 1243 | Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/ | 0 |
| 1222 | 1244 | Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/ | 0 |
| 1223 | 1245 | When will North Korea have a McDonald's? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/ | 0 |
| 1224 | 1246 | Will the Tennis be part of the 2044 Summer Olympics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6885/tennis-at-the-2044-olympics/ | 0 |
| 1225 | 1247 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/ | 0 |
| 1226 | 1248 | Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1227 | 1249 | What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/ | 0 |
| 1228 | 1250 | Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/ | 0 |
| 1229 | 1251 | What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1230 | 1252 | Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1231 | 1253 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1232 | 1254 | By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/ | 0 |
| 1233 | 1255 | When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/ | 0 |
| 1234 | 1256 | If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/ | 0 |
| 1235 | 1257 | How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/ | 0 |
| 1236 | 1258 | Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/ | 0 |
| 1237 | 1259 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/ | 0 |
| 1238 | 1260 | When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/ | 0 |
| 1239 | 1261 | Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/ | 0 |
| 1240 | 1262 | Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/ | 0 |
| 1241 | 1263 | How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/ | 0 |
| 1242 | 1264 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ | 0 |
| 1243 | 1265 | If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/ | 0 |
| 1244 | 1266 | Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/ | 0 |
| 1245 | 1267 | If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1246 | 1268 | Will humans go extinct by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1247 | 1269 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/ | 0 |
| 1248 | 1270 | How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/ | 0 |
| 1249 | 1271 | When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/ | 0 |
| 1250 | 1272 | When will the next man win his 10th tennis slam title? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6888/10-grand-slam-winner/ | 0 |
| 1251 | 1273 | Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1252 | 1274 | What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1253 | 1275 | Is the Collatz Conjecture true? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/ | 0 |
| 1254 | 1276 | Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7072/breakaway-soccer-league-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1255 | 1277 | When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/ | 0 |
| 1256 | 1278 | Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1257 | 1279 | How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/ | 0 |
| 1258 | 1280 | Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1259 | 1281 | Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/ | 0 |
| 1260 | 1282 | What will be the EU's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7011/eu-gdp-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1261 | 1283 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/ | 0 |
| 1262 | 1284 | When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/ | 0 |
| 1263 | 1285 | How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 1264 | 1286 | Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/ | 0 |
| 1265 | 1287 | The End of NAFTA? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/573/the-end-of-nafta/ | 0 |
| 1266 | 1288 | If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/ | 0 |
| 1267 | 1289 | Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/ | 0 |
| 1268 | 1290 | Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/ | 0 |
| 1269 | 1291 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/ | 0 |
| 1270 | 1292 | When will the next human being walk on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 1271 | 1293 | Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1272 | 1294 | Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1273 | 1295 | When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/ | 0 |
| 1274 | 1296 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1275 | 1297 | What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1276 | 1298 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1277 | 1300 | Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/ | 0 |
| 1278 | 1301 | On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/ | 0 |
| 1279 | 1302 | When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/ | 0 |
| 1280 | 1303 | Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/ | 0 |
| 1281 | 1304 | When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/ | 0 |
| 1282 | 1305 | How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1283 | 1306 | In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/ | 0 |
| 1284 | 1307 | What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/ | 0 |
| 1285 | 1308 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1286 | 1309 | When will the United States admit a new state? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/ | 0 |
| 1287 | 1311 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/ | 0 |
| 1288 | 1312 | Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/ | 0 |
| 1289 | 1313 | When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | 0 |
| 1290 | 1314 | In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/ | 0 |
| 1291 | 1315 | When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ | 0 |
| 1292 | 1316 | When will the world have reached peak Facebook? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/ | 0 |
| 1293 | 1317 | When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/ | 0 |
| 1294 | 1318 | Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/ | 0 |
| 1295 | 1319 | When will the US-Canada border reopen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/ | 0 |
| 1296 | 1320 | In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/ | 0 |
| 1297 | 1321 | Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1298 | 1322 | Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1299 | 1323 | What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1300 | 1324 | Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 1301 | 1325 | How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | 0 |
| 1302 | 1326 | When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/ | 0 |
| 1303 | 1327 | Will Half-Life 3 come out during Gabe Newell's lifetime? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1429/will-half-life-3-come-out-during-gabe-newells-lifetime/ | 0 |
| 1304 | 1328 | When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/ | 0 |
| 1305 | 1329 | What will US house prices be at the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1306 | 1330 | What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/ | 0 |
| 1307 | 1331 | If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6939/will-gpt-3-scaling-plateau-in--3-ooms/ | 0 |
| 1308 | 1332 | Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/ | 0 |
| 1309 | 1333 | What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/ | 0 |
| 1310 | 1334 | Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1311 | 1335 | What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1312 | 1336 | What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/ | 0 |
| 1313 | 1337 | What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/ | 0 |
| 1314 | 1338 | How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/ | 0 |
| 1315 | 1339 | Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/ | 0 |
| 1316 | 1340 | In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1317 | 1341 | Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/228/will-a-species-extinct-for--1000-years-be-brought-back-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1318 | 1342 | What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/ | 0 |
| 1319 | 1343 | Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/ | 0 |
| 1320 | 1344 | Will lossless compression fail to be accepted as a macrosociology model selection criterion? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3215/will-lossless-compression-fail-to-be-accepted-as-a-macrosociology-model-selection-criterion/ | 0 |
| 1321 | 1345 | What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6165/number-of-us-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/ | 0 |
| 1322 | 1346 | Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/ | 0 |
| 1323 | 1347 | A major United States earthquake by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/ | 0 |
| 1324 | 1348 | When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/ | 0 |
| 1325 | 1349 | When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/ | 0 |
| 1326 | 1350 | When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/ | 0 |
| 1327 | 1351 | How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 1328 | 1353 | Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3063/bitcoin-lightning-network-capacity-in-btc-on-2021-aug-25/ | 0 |
| 1329 | 1354 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Biological-ness of race | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3432/philpapers-survey-mini-series-biological-ness-of-race/ | 0 |
| 1330 | 1355 | Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/ | 0 |
| 1331 | 1356 | Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1332 | 1357 | Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/ | 0 |
| 1333 | 1358 | Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/ | 0 |
| 1334 | 1359 | Will mixed doubles be a fixture at all four slams in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7010/mixed-doubles-at-all-slams-in-2040/ | 0 |
| 1335 | 1360 | Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1336 | 1361 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/ | 0 |
| 1337 | 1362 | Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1338 | 1363 | When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/ | 0 |
| 1339 | 1364 | When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/ | 0 |
| 1340 | 1365 | Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/ | 0 |
| 1341 | 1366 | When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/ | 0 |
| 1342 | 1367 | Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1343 | 1368 | When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7033/hashing-with-biocomputers/ | 0 |
| 1344 | 1369 | How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/ | 0 |
| 1345 | 1370 | When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/ | 0 |
| 1346 | 1371 | Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1347 | 1372 | What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/ | 0 |
| 1348 | 1373 | Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/ | 0 |
| 1349 | 1374 | How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1350 | 1375 | When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/ | 0 |
| 1351 | 1376 | Will Metaculus exist in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1352 | 1377 | How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/ | 0 |
| 1353 | 1378 | Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1354 | 1379 | Will China land the next person on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 1355 | 1380 | What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/ | 0 |
| 1356 | 1381 | What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1357 | 1382 | When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/ | 0 |
| 1358 | 1383 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1359 | 1384 | Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/ | 0 |
| 1360 | 1385 | When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/ | 0 |
| 1361 | 1386 | How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 1362 | 1388 | When will the Flamanville EPR be finished? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/ | 0 |
| 1363 | 1389 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6891/migrant-deaths-in-the-mediterranean-in-2022/ | 0 |
| 1364 | 1390 | If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1365 | 1391 | When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/ | 0 |
| 1366 | 1392 | When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/ | 0 |
| 1367 | 1393 | Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/ | 0 |
| 1368 | 1394 | In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/ | 0 |
| 1369 | 1395 | When will zettascale computing be achieved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6353/zettascale-computing-when/ | 0 |
| 1370 | 1396 | When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/ | 0 |
| 1371 | 1397 | Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1372 | 1398 | Are we in a simulated reality? Part II | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/ | 0 |
| 1373 | 1399 | By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1374 | 1400 | Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1375 | 1401 | If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/ | 0 |
| 1376 | 1402 | Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/ | 0 |
| 1377 | 1403 | Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 1378 | 1404 | When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/ | 0 |
| 1379 | 1405 | When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/ | 0 |
| 1380 | 1406 | Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1381 | 1407 | Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/ | 0 |
| 1382 | 1408 | Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1383 | 1409 | Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/ | 0 |
| 1384 | 1410 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/ | 0 |
| 1385 | 1411 | For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/ | 0 |
| 1386 | 1412 | Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1387 | 1413 | When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/ | 0 |
| 1388 | 1414 | Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1389 | 1415 | What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/ | 0 |
| 1390 | 1416 | What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | 0 |
| 1391 | 1417 | When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/ | 0 |
| 1392 | 1418 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1393 | 1419 | When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/ | 0 |
| 1394 | 1420 | What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/ | 0 |
| 1395 | 1421 | Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/ | 0 |
| 1396 | 1422 | How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/ | 0 |
| 1397 | 1423 | Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 1398 | 1424 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/ | 0 |
| 1399 | 1425 | When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/ | 0 |
| 1400 | 1426 | Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1401 | 1427 | Will the US supreme court change size by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1402 | 1428 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/ | 0 |
| 1403 | 1429 | When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/ | 0 |
| 1404 | 1430 | World Population in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/ | 0 |
| 1405 | 1431 | How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/ | 0 |
| 1406 | 1432 | Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 1407 | 1433 | How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/ | 0 |
| 1408 | 1434 | Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1409 | 1435 | When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/ | 0 |
| 1410 | 1436 | If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ | 0 |
| 1411 | 1437 | What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1412 | 1438 | Will the European Commission or other EU institution net borrow more than €50bn in 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6994/european-commission-to-borrow-50bn-in-2027/ | 0 |
| 1413 | 1439 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/ | 0 |
| 1414 | 1440 | Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/ | 0 |
| 1415 | 1441 | Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/ | 0 |
| 1416 | 1442 | If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/ | 0 |
| 1417 | 1443 | What will the World's GDP be in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 1418 | 1444 | Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1419 | 1445 | Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1420 | 1446 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1421 | 1447 | Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/ | 0 |
| 1422 | 1448 | By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/ | 0 |
| 1423 | 1449 | What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1424 | 1450 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/ | 0 |
| 1425 | 1451 | Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/ | 0 |
| 1426 | 1452 | Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/ | 0 |
| 1427 | 1453 | When will a performer win a 4th Oscar for Acting? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6982/date-next-performer-wins-4th-oscar/ | 0 |
| 1428 | 1454 | Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/ | 0 |
| 1429 | 1455 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/ | 0 |
| 1430 | 1456 | Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/ | 0 |
| 1431 | 1457 | Increased off-world population in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 1432 | 1458 | How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ | 0 |
| 1433 | 1459 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | 0 |
| 1434 | 1460 | Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 1435 | 1461 | When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/ | 0 |
| 1436 | 1462 | What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/ | 0 |
| 1437 | 1463 | What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/ | 0 |
| 1438 | 1464 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1439 | 1465 | When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/ | 0 |
| 1440 | 1466 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/ | 0 |
| 1441 | 1467 | What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1442 | 1468 | When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5644/long-term-h20-capture-in-inner-solar-system/ | 0 |
| 1443 | 1469 | When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/ | 0 |
| 1444 | 1470 | Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1445 | 1471 | Will we detect a message originating from Luyten's Star before 2046? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/luytens-star-message-detected-before-2046/ | 0 |
| 1446 | 1472 | Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1447 | 1473 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1448 | 1474 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/ | 0 |
| 1449 | 1475 | When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/ | 0 |
| 1450 | 1476 | When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/ | 0 |
| 1451 | 1477 | Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1452 | 1478 | Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/ | 0 |
| 1453 | 1479 | What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1454 | 1480 | When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/ | 0 |
| 1455 | 1481 | What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 1456 | 1482 | A S&P500 tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/tech-boom-beyond-dotcom-bubble-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1457 | 1483 | How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1458 | 1484 | Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1554/will-the-us-per-capita-productivity-rate-of-science-nobel-prizes-fall-below-that-of-germany-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1459 | 1485 | Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1460 | 1486 | How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/ | 0 |
| 1461 | 1487 | If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1462 | 1488 | When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/ | 0 |
| 1463 | 1489 | What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/ | 0 |
| 1464 | 1490 | When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/ | 0 |
| 1465 | 1491 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/ | 0 |
| 1466 | 1492 | What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/ | 0 |
| 1467 | 1493 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/ | 0 |
| 1468 | 1494 | What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1469 | 1495 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1470 | 1496 | Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/ | 0 |
| 1471 | 1497 | Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/ | 0 |
| 1472 | 1498 | Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/ | 0 |
| 1473 | 1499 | Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1474 | 1500 | The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/ | 0 |
| 1475 | 1501 | Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1688/will-russia-invade-or-annex-all-or-part-of-belarus-before-2022/ | 0 |
| 1476 | 1502 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1477 | 1504 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1478 | 1505 | When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/ | 0 |
| 1479 | 1506 | When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7031/first-commercial-polygenic-embryo-screening/ | 0 |
| 1480 | 1507 | What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1481 | 1508 | When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/ | 0 |
| 1482 | 1509 | Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1483 | 1510 | On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/ | 0 |
| 1484 | 1511 | If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/ | 0 |
| 1485 | 1512 | Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/ | 0 |
| 1486 | 1513 | When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1487 | 1514 | Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/ | 0 |
| 1488 | 1515 | Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1489 | 1516 | Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1556/will-there-be-extraordinary-or-premature-federal-elections-held-in-germany-before-their-next-election-cycle/ | 0 |
| 1490 | 1517 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1491 | 1518 | Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/ | 0 |
| 1492 | 1519 | When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/ | 0 |
| 1493 | 1520 | When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/ | 0 |
| 1494 | 1521 | How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/ | 0 |
| 1495 | 1522 | When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/ | 0 |
| 1496 | 1523 | Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/ | 0 |
| 1497 | 1524 | When will there be at least one billion Americans? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/ | 0 |
| 1498 | 1525 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1499 | 1526 | Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1500 | 1527 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/ | 0 |
| 1501 | 1528 | When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | 0 |
| 1502 | 1529 | How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/ | 0 |
| 1503 | 1530 | Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/ | 0 |
| 1504 | 1531 | When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/ | 0 |
| 1505 | 1532 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/ | 0 |
| 1506 | 1533 | When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/ | 0 |
| 1507 | 1534 | Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7096/fortifying-feed-for-hens-charity-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1508 | 1536 | Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/ | 0 |
| 1509 | 1537 | When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/ | 0 |
| 1510 | 1538 | Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 1511 | 1539 | If the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/ | 0 |
| 1512 | 1540 | Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/ | 0 |
| 1513 | 1541 | Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3026/will-tom-brady-retire-when-his-current-contract-is-up/ | 0 |
| 1514 | 1542 | By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/ | 0 |
| 1515 | 1543 | Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/ | 0 |
| 1516 | 1544 | What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/ | 0 |
| 1517 | 1545 | Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1518 | 1546 | What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/ | 0 |
| 1519 | 1547 | When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/ | 0 |
| 1520 | 1548 | Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/ | 0 |
| 1521 | 1549 | Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/ | 0 |
| 1522 | 1550 | When will North Korea become a democracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/ | 0 |
| 1523 | 1552 | Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/ | 0 |
| 1524 | 1553 | How many emoji related court cases in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1525 | 1554 | Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1526 | 1555 | How big will be the first crew sent to Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/ | 0 |
| 1527 | 1556 | When will One Piece end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/ | 0 |
| 1528 | 1557 | How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/ | 0 |
| 1529 | 1558 | Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/ | 0 |
| 1530 | 1559 | If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1531 | 1560 | Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ | 0 |
| 1532 | 1561 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1533 | 1563 | Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/ | 0 |
| 1534 | 1564 | What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | 0 |
| 1535 | 1565 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/ | 0 |
| 1536 | 1566 | Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/ | 0 |
| 1537 | 1567 | Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/ | 0 |
| 1538 | 1568 | How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/ | 0 |
| 1539 | 1569 | A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028 | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 1540 | 1570 | When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/ | 0 |
| 1541 | 1571 | Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/ | 0 |
| 1542 | 1572 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/ | 0 |
| 1543 | 1573 | Will a new land speed record be set by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1544 | 1574 | Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ | 0 |
| 1545 | 1575 | If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/ | 0 |
| 1546 | 1576 | How much concern about climate change will exist in 2025, according to Google Trends? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1705/how-much-concern-about-climate-change-will-exist-in-2025-according-to-google-trends/ | 0 |
| 1547 | 1577 | What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/ | 0 |
| 1548 | 1578 | What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/ | 0 |
| 1549 | 1579 | When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/ | 0 |
| 1550 | 1580 | What will be the population of Próspera in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7110/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 1551 | 1581 | What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/ | 0 |
| 1552 | 1582 | Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/ | 0 |
| 1553 | 1583 | When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/ | 0 |
| 1554 | 1584 | When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/ | 0 |
| 1555 | 1585 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1556 | 1586 | How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/ | 0 |
| 1557 | 1587 | When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/ | 0 |
| 1558 | 1589 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/ | 0 |
| 1559 | 1590 | When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/ | 0 |
| 1560 | 1591 | By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/ | 0 |
| 1561 | 1592 | Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1562 | 1593 | When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/ | 0 |
| 1563 | 1594 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/ | 0 |
| 1564 | 1595 | How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/ | 0 |
| 1565 | 1596 | What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/ | 0 |
| 1566 | 1597 | What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1567 | 1598 | Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ | 0 |
| 1568 | 1599 | While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/ | 0 |
| 1569 | 1600 | What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/ | 0 |
| 1570 | 1601 | When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/ | 0 |
| 1571 | 1602 | When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/ | 0 |
| 1572 | 1603 | What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/ | 0 |
| 1573 | 1604 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/ | 0 |
| 1574 | 1605 | Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/ | 0 |
| 1575 | 1606 | Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/ | 0 |
| 1576 | 1607 | What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/ | 0 |
| 1577 | 1608 | When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/ | 0 |
| 1578 | 1609 | Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/ | 0 |
| 1579 | 1610 | When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/ | 0 |
| 1580 | 1611 | How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/ | 0 |
| 1581 | 1612 | When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/ | 0 |
| 1582 | 1613 | Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 1583 | 1614 | Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/ | 0 |
| 1584 | 1615 | Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1585 | 1616 | Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1603/will-mohammed-bin-salman-become-the-next-king-of-saudi-arabia/ | 0 |
| 1586 | 1617 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1587 | 1618 | What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/ | 0 |
| 1588 | 1619 | What will US house prices be at the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1589 | 1620 | Will the next US recession turn into a depression? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/ | 0 |
| 1590 | 1621 | How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/ | 0 |
| 1591 | 1622 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/ | 0 |
| 1592 | 1623 | What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 1593 | 1624 | How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/ | 0 |
| 1594 | 1625 | Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/ | 0 |
| 1595 | 1626 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/ | 0 |
| 1596 | 1627 | Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1597 | 1628 | When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ | 0 |
| 1598 | 1629 | When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/ | 0 |
| 1599 | 1630 | What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/ | 0 |
| 1600 | 1631 | When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/ | 0 |
| 1601 | 1632 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6977/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-animal-welfare/ | 0 |
| 1602 | 1633 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/ | 0 |
| 1603 | 1634 | Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/ | 0 |
| 1604 | 1635 | When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/ | 0 |
| 1605 | 1636 | What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 1606 | 1637 | By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1607 | 1638 | When will the VIX index climb above 50? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/ | 0 |
| 1608 | 1639 | Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/ | 0 |
| 1609 | 1640 | When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/ | 0 |
| 1610 | 1641 | When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7078/apple-m2-release-date/ | 0 |
| 1611 | 1642 | What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 1612 | 1643 | Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ | 0 |
| 1613 | 1644 | Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1614 | 1645 | Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1615 | 1646 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1616 | 1647 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/ | 0 |
| 1617 | 1648 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/ | 0 |
| 1618 | 1649 | What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ | 0 |
| 1619 | 1650 | What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/ | 0 |
| 1620 | 1651 | What will be the USA's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7006/gdp-of-the-usa-for-2025/ | 0 |
| 1621 | 1652 | Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1622 | 1653 | Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/ | 0 |
| 1623 | 1654 | When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/ | 0 |
| 1624 | 1655 | When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/ | 0 |
| 1625 | 1656 | What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ | 0 |
| 1626 | 1657 | Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/ | 0 |
| 1627 | 1658 | When will there be a publicly listed clean fish company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/ | 0 |
| 1628 | 1659 | Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1629 | 1660 | When will the first cloned human be born? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/ | 0 |
| 1630 | 1661 | Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1631 | 1662 | Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/ | 0 |
| 1632 | 1663 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1633 | 1664 | Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1634 | 1665 | Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/ | 0 |
| 1635 | 1666 | Will McDonald's be the first top global QSR to feature a cultivated meat product on their menu (by 2026)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7056/will-mcdonalds-offer-cultivated-meat-first/ | 0 |
| 1636 | 1667 | What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/ | 0 |
| 1637 | 1668 | When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/ | 0 |
| 1638 | 1669 | Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/ | 0 |
| 1639 | 1670 | When will the first exaflop performer appear? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/ | 0 |
| 1640 | 1671 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1641 | 1672 | Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1642 | 1673 | What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/ | 0 |
| 1643 | 1674 | Who will win the 'worm wars'? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/ | 0 |
| 1644 | 1675 | Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1645 | 1676 | Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?) | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/ | 0 |
| 1646 | 1677 | Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/ | 0 |
| 1647 | 1678 | What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1648 | 1679 | Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ | 0 |
| 1649 | 1680 | What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/ | 0 |
| 1650 | 1681 | How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1651 | 1683 | In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/ | 0 |
| 1652 | 1684 | What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5676/2020-world-hdi/ | 0 |
| 1653 | 1685 | When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/ | 0 |
| 1654 | 1686 | Balloons to the edge of space – when? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/441/balloons-to-the-edge-of-space--when/ | 0 |
| 1655 | 1687 | What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/ | 0 |
| 1656 | 1688 | Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/945/will-moon-express-have-a-successful-harvest-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 1657 | 1689 | How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/ | 0 |
| 1658 | 1690 | When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/ | 0 |
| 1659 | 1692 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1660 | 1693 | When will the mammoth be revived? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/ | 0 |
| 1661 | 1694 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/ | 0 |
| 1662 | 1695 | What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/ | 0 |
| 1663 | 1696 | What will be India's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7004/gdp-of-india-for-2025/ | 0 |
| 1664 | 1697 | Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6197/brazil-fifa-world-cup-win-by-2050/ | 0 |
| 1665 | 1698 | When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/ | 0 |
| 1666 | 1699 | What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1667 | 1702 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/ | 0 |
| 1668 | 1703 | If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/ | 0 |
| 1669 | 1704 | How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/ | 0 |
| 1670 | 1705 | Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/ | 0 |
| 1671 | 1706 | When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/ | 0 |
| 1672 | 1707 | When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/ | 0 |
| 1673 | 1708 | Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/ | 0 |
| 1674 | 1709 | When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/ | 0 |
| 1675 | 1710 | Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/ | 0 |
| 1676 | 1711 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1677 | 1712 | Will US income inequality increase by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1678 | 1713 | What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/ | 0 |
| 1679 | 1714 | Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/ | 0 |
| 1680 | 1715 | Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/ | 0 |
| 1681 | 1716 | How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/ | 0 |
| 1682 | 1717 | Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7139/pr%25C3%25B3spera-population-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1683 | 1718 | Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/ | 0 |
| 1684 | 1719 | When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/ | 0 |
| 1685 | 1720 | When will Amazon deliver some products by drone? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/ | 0 |
| 1686 | 1721 | Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/ | 0 |
| 1687 | 1722 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1688 | 1723 | How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/ | 0 |
| 1689 | 1724 | Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/ | 0 |
| 1690 | 1725 | Will CD PROJEKT (WSE:CDR) reach its previous All Time High price of zł464.20 in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6442/cd-projekt-cdr-and-the-climb-to-z%25C5%258246420/ | 0 |
| 1691 | 1726 | What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/ | 0 |
| 1692 | 1727 | What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ | 0 |
| 1693 | 1728 | Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/ | 0 |
| 1694 | 1729 | How will Joe Biden rank among presidents? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/ | 0 |
| 1695 | 1730 | Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/ | 0 |
| 1696 | 1731 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ | 0 |
| 1697 | 1732 | Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1698 | 1733 | Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/ | 0 |
| 1699 | 1734 | What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/ | 0 |
| 1700 | 1735 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/ | 0 |
| 1701 | 1736 | Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/477/efficacy-confirmation-of-a-new-alzheimers-treatment-protocol/ | 0 |
| 1702 | 1737 | Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/ | 0 |
| 1703 | 1738 | Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/ | 0 |
| 1704 | 1739 | Will Moore's Law end by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1705 | 1740 | Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1706 | 1741 | Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1707 | 1743 | When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/ | 0 |
| 1708 | 1744 | Resolution of the Density Conjecture for Newton's N-body problem | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/523/resolution-to-the-proximity-conjecture-for-dynamical-systems/ | 0 |
| 1709 | 1745 | By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1710 | 1746 | Will the Universe end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/ | 0 |
| 1711 | 1747 | If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/ | 0 |
| 1712 | 1748 | What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | 0 |
| 1713 | 1749 | Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/ | 0 |
| 1714 | 1750 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1715 | 1751 | When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/ | 0 |
| 1716 | 1752 | When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ | 0 |
| 1717 | 1753 | When will a fusion reactor reach ignition? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/ | 0 |
| 1718 | 1754 | How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 1719 | 1755 | What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/ | 0 |
| 1720 | 1756 | Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/ | 0 |
| 1721 | 1757 | By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 1722 | 1758 | What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/ | 0 |
| 1723 | 1759 | What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ | 0 |
| 1724 | 1760 | Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1725 | 1761 | Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Intelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6509/safe-agi-on-arrival/ | 0 |
| 1726 | 1762 | How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/ | 0 |
| 1727 | 1763 | When will there be at least 5 billion internet users? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/ | 0 |
| 1728 | 1764 | How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/ | 0 |
| 1729 | 1765 | If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/ | 0 |
| 1730 | 1766 | When will Solar Cycle 25 begin? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/ | 0 |
| 1731 | 1767 | What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/ | 0 |
| 1732 | 1768 | When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/ | 0 |
| 1733 | 1769 | How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/ | 0 |
| 1734 | 1770 | How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/ | 0 |
| 1735 | 1771 | What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/ | 0 |
| 1736 | 1772 | When will there be a mile-high building? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ | 0 |
| 1737 | 1773 | Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 1738 | 1774 | Will most dark matter turn out to be primordial black holes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6608/black-holes-as-dark-matter/ | 0 |
| 1739 | 1775 | When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/ | 0 |
| 1740 | 1776 | How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1741 | 1777 | What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/ | 0 |
| 1742 | 1778 | When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/ | 0 |
| 1743 | 1779 | Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1744 | 1780 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Support for open borders | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3434/philpapers-survey-mini-series-support-for-open-borders/ | 0 |
| 1745 | 1781 | Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/ | 0 |
| 1746 | 1782 | What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1747 | 1783 | What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 1748 | 1784 | When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/ | 0 |
| 1749 | 1785 | When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/ | 0 |
| 1750 | 1786 | When will programs write programs for us? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/ | 0 |
| 1751 | 1787 | In what year will half of new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/ | 0 |
| 1752 | 1788 | When will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6411/weride-autonomous-vehicle-testing-in-ca/ | 0 |
| 1753 | 1789 | When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/ | 0 |
| 1754 | 1790 | When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/ | 0 |
| 1755 | 1791 | What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | 0 |
| 1756 | 1792 | Will the US see mass price controls in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1757 | 1793 | Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/ | 0 |
| 1758 | 1794 | What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/ | 0 |
| 1759 | 1795 | Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/ | 0 |
| 1760 | 1796 | Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/ | 0 |
| 1761 | 1797 | Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1762 | 1798 | How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/ | 0 |
| 1763 | 1799 | What will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5561/triplebyte-ml-engineer-salary/ | 0 |
| 1764 | 1800 | What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/ | 0 |
| 1765 | 1801 | If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/ | 0 |
| 1766 | 1802 | How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/ | 0 |
| 1767 | 1803 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/ | 0 |
| 1768 | 1804 | Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1769 | 1805 | Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1770 | 1806 | 3.6°C global warming by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1771 | 1807 | When will we have micropayments? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/ | 0 |
| 1772 | 1808 | What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/ | 0 |
| 1773 | 1809 | When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/ | 0 |
| 1774 | 1810 | How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/ | 0 |
| 1775 | 1811 | Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/ | 0 |
| 1776 | 1812 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1777 | 1813 | Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1778 | 1814 | When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/ | 0 |
| 1779 | 1815 | What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/ | 0 |
| 1780 | 1816 | Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1781 | 1817 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/ | 0 |
| 1782 | 1818 | What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1783 | 1819 | When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/ | 0 |
| 1784 | 1820 | Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/ | 0 |
| 1785 | 1821 | Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/ | 0 |
| 1786 | 1822 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/ | 0 |
| 1787 | 1823 | Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/ | 0 |
| 1788 | 1824 | Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1789 | 1825 | What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/ | 0 |
| 1790 | 1826 | If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/ | 0 |
| 1791 | 1827 | When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/ | 0 |
| 1792 | 1828 | When will the average ticket price in US cinemas be $10 or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1428/when-will-the-average-ticket-price-in-us-cinemas-be-10-or-more/ | 0 |
| 1793 | 1829 | Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/ | 0 |
| 1794 | 1830 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1795 | 1831 | When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/ | 0 |
| 1796 | 1832 | Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/ | 0 |
| 1797 | 1833 | When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/ | 0 |
| 1798 | 1834 | Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/ | 0 |
| 1799 | 1835 | Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/ | 0 |
| 1800 | 1836 | Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5409/un-security-council-vetoes-2021/ | 0 |
| 1801 | 1837 | When will the first YouTube star – famous FIRST because of YouTube stardom – be elected to Congress? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1446/when-will-the-first-youtube-star--famous-first-because-of-youtube-stardom--be-elected-to-congress/ | 0 |
| 1802 | 1838 | When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/ | 0 |
| 1803 | 1839 | If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/ | 0 |
| 1804 | 1840 | Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/ | 0 |
| 1805 | 1841 | When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ | 0 |
| 1806 | 1842 | What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ | 0 |
| 1807 | 1843 | Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/ | 0 |
| 1808 | 1844 | Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1378/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 1809 | 1845 | What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1810 | 1846 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1811 | 1847 | When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/ | 0 |
| 1812 | 1848 | When will we have a new Pope? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/ | 0 |
| 1813 | 1849 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1814 | 1850 | When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/ | 0 |
| 1815 | 1851 | Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/ | 0 |
| 1816 | 1852 | Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/ | 0 |
| 1817 | 1853 | Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/ | 0 |
| 1818 | 1855 | How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/ | 0 |
| 1819 | 1856 | Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/ | 0 |
| 1820 | 1857 | Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/ | 0 |
| 1821 | 1858 | When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/ | 0 |
| 1822 | 1859 | How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/ | 0 |
| 1823 | 1860 | How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/ | 0 |
| 1824 | 1861 | In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/ | 0 |
| 1825 | 1862 | Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7017/us-troops-in-afghanistan-a-last-detail/ | 0 |
| 1826 | 1863 | When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/ | 0 |
| 1827 | 1864 | Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/ | 0 |
| 1828 | 1865 | When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/ | 0 |
| 1829 | 1866 | When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/ | 0 |
| 1830 | 1867 | What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/ | 0 |
| 1831 | 1868 | When will a universal flu vaccine be available? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/ | 0 |
| 1832 | 1869 | When will the first human head transplant occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/ | 0 |
| 1833 | 1870 | When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/ | 0 |
| 1834 | 1871 | What will be the largest cultivated meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7035/cultivated-meat-production-capacity-2030/ | 0 |
| 1835 | 1872 | Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7128/vocs-to-make-up-50-of-virginia-sequences/ | 0 |
| 1836 | 1873 | What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/ | 0 |
| 1837 | 1874 | Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/ | 0 |
| 1838 | 1875 | When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/ | 0 |
| 1839 | 1876 | When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/ | 0 |
| 1840 | 1877 | When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/ | 0 |
| 1841 | 1878 | A decrease in US meat production by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1842 | 1879 | Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/ | 0 |
| 1843 | 1880 | How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/ | 0 |
| 1844 | 1881 | Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/ | 0 |
| 1845 | 1882 | Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/ | 0 |
| 1846 | 1883 | Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/ | 0 |
| 1847 | 1884 | How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/ | 0 |
| 1848 | 1885 | Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/ | 0 |
| 1849 | 1886 | If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/ | 0 |
| 1850 | 1887 | When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/ | 0 |
| 1851 | 1888 | Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/590/state-of-democracy-in-2100/ | 0 |
| 1852 | 1889 | When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/ | 0 |
| 1853 | 1890 | When will The Simpsons air its final episode? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/ | 0 |
| 1854 | 1891 | What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/ | 0 |
| 1855 | 1892 | Will Catalonia become an independent state? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/ | 0 |
| 1856 | 1893 | Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/ | 0 |
| 1857 | 1894 | Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/ | 0 |
| 1858 | 1895 | How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/ | 0 |
| 1859 | 1896 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/ | 0 |
| 1860 | 1897 | 20 more languages extinct by 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/322/20-more-languages-extinct-by-2021/ | 0 |
| 1861 | 1898 | What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/ | 0 |
| 1862 | 1899 | PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/ | 0 |
| 1863 | 1900 | Pandemic series: a new Spanish Flu? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/242/pandemic-series-a-new-spanish-flu/ | 0 |
| 1864 | 1901 | How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/ | 0 |
| 1865 | 1902 | Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/ | 0 |
| 1866 | 1903 | When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/ | 0 |
| 1867 | 1904 | When will the first human be born on another world? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ | 0 |
| 1868 | 1905 | Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/ | 0 |
| 1869 | 1906 | After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/ | 0 |
| 1870 | 1907 | How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/ | 0 |
| 1871 | 1908 | Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/ | 0 |
| 1872 | 1909 | With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/ | 0 |
| 1873 | 1910 | What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/ | 0 |
| 1874 | 1911 | What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/ | 0 |
| 1875 | 1912 | What day will Solar Cycle 25 end? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/ | 0 |
| 1876 | 1913 | When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/ | 0 |
| 1877 | 1914 | Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/ | 0 |
| 1878 | 1915 | Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/ | 0 |
| 1879 | 1916 | One Million Martian Residents by 2075? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/ | 0 |
| 1880 | 1917 | When will any country stop using cash currency? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1449/when-will-any-country-stop-using-cash-currency/ | 0 |
| 1881 | 1918 | What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/ | 0 |
| 1882 | 1919 | What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ | 0 |
| 1883 | 1920 | What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/ | 0 |
| 1884 | 1921 | Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/ | 0 |
| 1885 | 1922 | By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/ | 0 |
| 1886 | 1923 | When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/ | 0 |
| 1887 | 1924 | What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/ | 0 |
| 1888 | 1925 | How many communist states will there be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ | 0 |
| 1889 | 1926 | When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4367/when-is-the-earliest-day-the-world-has-less-than-50000-newly-infected-covid-19-cases-on-a-three-day-average-basis/ | 0 |
| 1890 | 1927 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1891 | 1928 | Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/ | 0 |
| 1892 | 1929 | Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/ | 0 |
| 1893 | 1930 | When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/ | 0 |
| 1894 | 1931 | 50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/ | 0 |
| 1895 | 1932 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/ | 0 |
| 1896 | 1933 | What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/ | 0 |
| 1897 | 1934 | Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/ | 0 |
| 1898 | 1935 | When will a technology replace screens? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/ | 0 |
| 1899 | 1936 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/ | 0 |
| 1900 | 1937 | When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/ | 0 |
| 1901 | 1938 | When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/ | 0 |
| 1902 | 1939 | What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/ | 0 |
| 1903 | 1940 | Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/ | 0 |
| 1904 | 1941 | What will inflation be in the US in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ | 0 |
| 1905 | 1942 | Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ | 0 |
| 1906 | 1943 | Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election | 0 |
| 1907 | 1944 | Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election | 0 |
| 1908 | 1945 | Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election | 0 |
| 1909 | 1946 | Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1910 | 1947 | Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 | 0 |
| 1911 | 1948 | Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 | 0 |
| 1912 | 1949 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 | 0 |
| 1913 | 1950 | Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 | 0 |
| 1914 | 1951 | Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 1915 | 1952 | Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 1916 | 1953 | Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1917 | 1954 | Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 | 0 |
| 1918 | 1955 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 | 0 |
| 1919 | 1956 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary | 0 |
| 1920 | 1957 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1921 | 1958 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1922 | 1959 | Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary | 0 |
| 1923 | 1960 | Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary | 0 |
| 1924 | 1961 | Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary | 0 |
| 1925 | 1962 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1926 | 1963 | Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 | 0 |
| 1927 | 1964 | Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination | 0 |
| 1928 | 1965 | Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination | 0 |
| 1929 | 1966 | Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1930 | 1967 | Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed | 0 |
| 1931 | 1968 | Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary | 0 |
| 1932 | 1969 | Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1933 | 1970 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1934 | 1971 | Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary | 0 |
| 1935 | 1972 | Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1936 | 1973 | Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 | 0 |
| 1937 | 1974 | Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL | 0 |
| 1938 | 1975 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia | 0 |
| 1939 | 1976 | Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 | 0 |
| 1940 | 1977 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona | 0 |
| 1941 | 1978 | Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election | 0 |
| 1942 | 1979 | Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next | 0 |
| 1943 | 1980 | Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1944 | 1981 | How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against | 0 |
| 1945 | 1982 | Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust | 0 |
| 1946 | 1983 | Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next | 0 |
| 1947 | 1984 | Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1948 | 1985 | Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1949 | 1986 | Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1950 | 1987 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire | 0 |
| 1951 | 1988 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada | 0 |
| 1952 | 1989 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin | 0 |
| 1953 | 1990 | Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director | 0 |
| 1954 | 1991 | Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term | 0 |
| 1955 | 1992 | Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district | 0 |
| 1956 | 1993 | Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year | 0 |
| 1957 | 1994 | Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next | 0 |
| 1958 | 1995 | Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District | 0 |
| 1959 | 1996 | Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1960 | 1997 | Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China | 0 |
| 1961 | 1998 | Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1962 | 1999 | Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee | 0 |
| 1963 | 2000 | Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1 | 0 |
| 1964 | 2001 | Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1965 | 2002 | Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1966 | 2003 | Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1967 | 2004 | How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1968 | 2005 | Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district | 0 |
| 1969 | 2006 | What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election | 0 |
| 1970 | 2007 | Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 1971 | 2008 | Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 1972 | 2009 | Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1973 | 2010 | Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022 | 0 |
| 1974 | 2011 | Who will win the Democratic nomination in the OH-11 special election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7179/Who-will-win-the-Democratic-nomination-in-the-OH-11-special-election | 0 |
| 1975 | 2012 | Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7180/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1976 | 2013 | Will Dianne Feinstein still be a U.S. Senator on Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7181/Will-Dianne-Feinstein-still-be-a-US-Senator-on-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 1977 | 2014 | Who will win the 2022 Alabama Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7182/Who-will-win-the-2022-Alabama-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1978 | 2015 | Will Gavin Newsom be recalled in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7189/Will-Gavin-Newsom-be-recalled-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1979 | 2016 | Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7190/Who-will-win-the-2022-Iowa-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1980 | 2017 | Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7194/Who-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1981 | 2018 | Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7197/Will-Israel-hold-a-second-national-election-for-Knesset-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1982 | 2019 | Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7198/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 1983 | 2020 | Will Canada hold national parliamentary elections in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7200/Will-Canada-hold-national-parliamentary-elections-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1984 | 2021 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri | 0 |
| 1985 | 2022 | Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Secretary of State nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7205/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Secretary-of-State-nomination | 0 |
| 1986 | 2023 | Who will win the 2022 Missouri Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7206/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1987 | 2024 | Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7208/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Iowa | 0 |
| 1988 | 2025 | Will Xi Jinping be re-elected CCP General Secretary before 2023? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7209/Will-Xi-Jinping-be-re-elected-CCP-General-Secretary-before-2023 | 0 |
| 1989 | 2026 | Will Hu Chunhua be elected to the CCP Politburo Standing Committee before 2023? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7210/Will-Hu-Chunhua-be-elected-to-the-CCP-Politburo-Standing-Committee-before-2023 | 0 |
| 1990 | 2027 | Who will win the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7211/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 1991 | 2028 | Who will be the governor of California on Dec. 31? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7214/Who-will-be-the-governor-of-California-on-Dec-31 | 0 |
| 1992 | 2029 | Will Matt Gaetz sit on the House Judiciary Committee on Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7216/Will-Matt-Gaetz-sit-on-the-House-Judiciary-Committee-on-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 1993 | 2030 | Will Automatic Voter Registration become law in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7217/Will-Automatic-Voter-Registration-become-law-in-2021 | 0 |
| 1994 | 2031 | Who will win the 2022 Arizona Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7229/Who-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 1995 | 2032 | How many refugees will Biden authorize to be admitted in the next fiscal year? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7233/How-many-refugees-will-Biden-authorize-to-be-admitted-in-the-next-fiscal-year | 0 |
| 1996 | 2033 | Who will be prime minister of Israel on Dec. 31? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7234/Who-will-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31 | 0 |
| 1997 | 2034 | What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7237/What-will-be-the-corporate-tax-rate-for-2022 | 0 |
| 1998 | 2035 | Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7240/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 1999 | 2036 | Who will win the 2022 Texas Democratic gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7241/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2000 | 2037 | Will Matt Gaetz resign before Sept.1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7247/Will-Matt-Gaetz-resign-before-Sept1 | 0 |
| 2001 | 2038 | Will Andrew Cuomo resign before Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7249/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 2002 | 2039 | Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7251/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 2003 | 2040 | Who will win the 2022 Nevada Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7253/Who-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 2004 | 2041 | How many incumbent U.S. Senators will be re-elected in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7254/How-many-incumbent-US-Senators-will-be-re-elected-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2005 | 2042 | Who will win the 2022 Massachusetts gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7257/Who-will-win-the-2022-Massachusetts-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2006 | 2043 | Who will win the 2022 New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7258/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-Hampshire-Republican-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 2007 | 2044 | Who will be the Republican nominee in the OH-15 special election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7259/Who-will-be-the-Republican-nominee-in-the-OH-15-special-election | 0 |
| 2008 | 2045 | Who will finish first in the 2021 mayoral primary in Cleveland? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7261/Who-will-finish-first-in-the-2021-mayoral-primary-in-Cleveland | 0 |
| 2009 | 2046 | Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 | 0 |
| 2010 | 2047 | Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7270/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2011 | 2048 | Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7271/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2012 | 2049 | Will Lisa Murkowski be re-elected in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7274/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-re-elected-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2013 | 2050 | Who will be elected Atlanta mayor in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7275/Who-will-be-elected-Atlanta-mayor-in-2021 | 0 |
| 2014 | 2051 | Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7286/Will-the-Senate-confirm-a-Supreme-Court-justice-in-2021 | 0 |
| 2015 | 2052 | Who will win the 2022 Florida Democratic Senate nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7288/Who-will-win-the-2022-Florida-Democratic-Senate-nomination | 0 |
| 2016 | 2053 | Who will win the 2021 Campeche, MX gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7303/Who-will-win-the-2021-Campeche,-MX-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2017 | 2054 | Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before July 31? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7306/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-July-31 | 0 |
| 2018 | 2055 | Who will win the 2022 New York Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7307/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2019 | 2056 | How many votes to confirm David Chipman as ATF director by July 30? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7311/How-many-votes-to-confirm-David-Chipman-as-ATF-director-by-July-30 | 0 |
| 2020 | 2057 | Who will win the 2022 Texas Republican attorney general nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7312/Who-will-win-the-2022-Texas-Republican-attorney-general-nomination | 0 |
| 2021 | 2058 | Will the Senate use reconciliation by August 6? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7314/Will-the-Senate-use-reconciliation-by-August-6 | 0 |
| 2022 | 2059 | On which RCV round will a candidate win the NYC Democratic mayoral primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7321/On-which-RCV-round-will-a-candidate-win-the-NYC-Democratic-mayoral-primary | 0 |
| 2023 | 2060 | How many successful filibusters will there be in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7324/How-many-successful-filibusters-will-there-be-in-2021 | 0 |
| 2024 | 2061 | Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress | 0 |
| 2025 | 2062 | Will Donald Trump run for the House of Representatives in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7327/Will-Donald-Trump-run-for-the-House-of-Representatives-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2026 | 2063 | Who will win the 2022 Idaho Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7329/Who-will-win-the-2022-Idaho-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2027 | 2064 | Will Ilhan Omar sit on the House Foreign Affairs Committee on July 31? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7332/Will-Ilhan-Omar-sit-on-the-House-Foreign-Affairs-Committee-on-July-31 | 0 |
| 2028 | 2065 | What will be the margin in the first round of the NYC Dem mayoral primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7335/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-first-round-of-the-NYC-Dem-mayoral-primary | 0 |
| 2029 | 2066 | What will be the margin in the winning round of the NYC Dem mayoral primary? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7339/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-winning-round-of-the-NYC-Dem-mayoral-primary | 0 |
| 2030 | 2067 | How many votes to confirm Rohit Chopra as CFPB Director by July 30? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7341/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Rohit-Chopra-as-CFPB-Director-by-July-30 | 0 |
| 2031 | 2068 | Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7343/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2032 | 2069 | Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nomination? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7348/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination | 0 |
| 2033 | 2070 | How many VA House seats will Democrats win in the 2021 election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7349/How-many-VA-House-seats-will-Democrats-win-in-the-2021-election | 0 |
| 2034 | 2071 | Who will be elected president of Chile in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7350/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Chile-in-2021 | 0 |
| 2035 | 2072 | How many votes in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary first round? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7354/How-many-votes-in-the-New-York-City-Democratic-mayoral-primary-first-round | 0 |
| 2036 | 2073 | Will Sweden hold national elections by Sept. 15? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7356/Will-Sweden-hold-national-elections-by-Sept-15 | 0 |
| 2037 | 2074 | Who will be elected president of Brazil in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7358/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Brazil-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2038 | 2075 | Will Suga Yoshihide be prime minister of Japan on Sept. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7359/Will-Suga-Yoshihide-be-prime-minister-of-Japan-on-Sept-1 | 0 |
| 2039 | 2076 | Who will be elected president of France in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7360/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-France-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2040 | 2077 | Enough signatures for a vote on recall of LA County DA George Gascón? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7361/Enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-LA-County-DA-George-Gascón | 0 |
| 2041 | 2078 | Will marijuana be rescheduled under the Controlled Substances Act by April 20? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7363/Will-marijuana-be-rescheduled-under-the-Controlled-Substances-Act-by-April-20 | 0 |
| 2042 | 2079 | How many federal judges will be confirmed by Aug. 6? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7365/How-many-federal-judges-will-be-confirmed-by-Aug-6 | 0 |
| 2043 | 2080 | How many votes to confirm Jennifer Abruzzo as NLRB general counsel by Aug. 6? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7368/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Jennifer-Abruzzo-as-NLRB-general-counsel-by-Aug-6 | 0 |
| 2044 | 2081 | Will Jim Jordan be appointed to the January 6 Select Committee by Aug. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7369/Will-Jim-Jordan-be-appointed-to-the-January-6-Select-Committee-by-Aug-1 | 0 |
| 2045 | 2082 | Who will be elected president of Colombia in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7371/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Colombia-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2046 | 2083 | Will Adam Kinzinger be appointed to the January 6 Select Committee by Aug. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7373/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-be-appointed-to-the-January-6-Select-Committee-by-Aug-1 | 0 |
| 2047 | 2084 | How many votes to confirm Margaret Strickland to the District Ct. of NM by 8/6? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7376/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Margaret-Strickland-to-the-District-Ct-of-NM-by-8-6 | 0 |
| 2048 | 2085 | Which party will win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7377/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Michigan-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2049 | 2086 | Which party will win the 2022 Wisconsin gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7378/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Wisconsin-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2050 | 2087 | Will Tracy Stone-Manning be confirmed as BLM Director by Oct. 8? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7379/Will-Tracy-Stone-Manning-be-confirmed-as-BLM-Director-by-Oct-8 | 0 |
| 2051 | 2088 | Which party will win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7380/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2052 | 2089 | Which party will win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7383/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Arizona-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2053 | 2090 | Which party will win the 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7384/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Kansas-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2054 | 2091 | Which party will win the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7386/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2055 | 2092 | Which party will win the 2022 Maryland gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7387/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maryland-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2056 | 2093 | Which party will win the 2022 Nevada gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7391/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Nevada-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2057 | 2094 | Who will be elected president of the Philippines in 2022? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7392/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-the-Philippines-in-2022 | 0 |
| 2058 | 2095 | Will Texas legislature pass an elections bill by Aug. 9? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7393/Will-Texas-legislature-pass-an-elections-bill-by-Aug-9 | 0 |
| 2059 | 2096 | Which party will win the 2022 Maine gubernatorial election? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7394/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-Maine-gubernatorial-election | 0 |
| 2060 | 2097 | Who will be elected Buffalo, NY mayor in 2021? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7395/Who-will-be-elected-Buffalo,-NY-mayor-in-2021 | 0 |
| 2061 | 2098 | What will Biden's 538 job approval index be on July 20? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7396/What-will-Biden's-538-job-approval-index-be-on-July-20 | 0 |
| 2062 | 2099 | What will Biden's RCP job approval index be for July 21? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7397/What-will-Biden's-RCP-job-approval-index-be-for-July-21 | 0 |
| 2063 | 2100 | Whom will the Senate next confirm as Chair of the Federal Reserve? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve | 0 |
| 2064 | 2101 | How many votes to confirm Eunice Lee to the Second Circuit by Oct. 1? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7401/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Eunice-Lee-to-the-Second-Circuit-by-Oct-1 | 0 |
| 2065 | 2102 | How many votes to confirm Kenneth Polite as Assistant Attorney General by 8/6? | https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7402/How-many-votes-to-confirm-Kenneth-Polite-as-Assistant-Attorney-General-by-8-6 | 0 |
| 2066 | 2103 | Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013? | https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Who-carried-out-the-chemical-attack-in-Ghouta-on-August-21-2013 | 0 |
| 2067 | 2104 | What is the source of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2)? | https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COVID-19-SARS-CoV-2 | 0 |
| 2068 | 2105 | Was there widespread fraud in the 2020 US election? | https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/Was-there-widespread-fraud-in-the-2020-US-election | 0 |
| 2069 | 2106 | Does Vitamin D reduce the severity of COVID-19 outcomes? | https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/does-vitamin-d-reduce-the-severity-of-covid-19-outcomes | 0 |
| 2070 | 2107 | What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370? | https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/what-caused-the-disappearance-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-370 | 0 |
| 2071 | 2108 | What Happened to Barry and Honey Sherman? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-happened-to-barry-and-honey-sherman-19972 | 0 |
| 2072 | 2109 | What is the story behind Donald Trump's hair? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-is-the-story-behind-donald-trump-s-hair-12734 | 0 |
| 2073 | 2110 | Did former New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez commit suicide? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-former-new-england-patriots-tight-end-aaron-hernandez-commit-suicide-19060 | 0 |
| 2074 | 2111 | Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/serial-who-killed-hae-min-lee-11513 | 0 |
| 2075 | 2112 | What caused the chemical calamity in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4, 2017? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-on-april-4-2017-18448 | 0 |
| 2076 | 2113 | Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-miss-universe-2015-mistake-intentional-14197 | 0 |
| 2077 | 2114 | Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-attacked-the-aid-convoy-in-syria-on-september-19-2016-16104 | 0 |
| 2078 | 2115 | Who was behind the July 2016 Turkish coup attempt? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-was-behind-the-july-2016-turkish-coup-attempt-17401 | 0 |
| 2079 | 2116 | Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-pakistan-know-that-osama-bin-laden-was-hiding-in-abbottabad-18034 | 0 |
| 2080 | 2117 | Did Usain Bolt use performance-enhancing drugs? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/did-usain-bolt-use-performance-enhancing-drugs-14420 | 0 |
| 2081 | 2118 | Was the July 28, 2015, Serbian lottery drawing rigged? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/was-the-july-28-2015-serbian-lottery-drawing-rigged-11364 | 0 |
| 2082 | 2119 | Why was Seth Rich killed? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-seth-rich-killed-16122 | 0 |
| 2083 | 2120 | Why was Stonehenge built? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/why-was-stonehenge-built-13169 | 0 |
| 2084 | 2121 | Does the MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine cause autism? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/does-the-mmr-measles-mumps-and-rubella-vaccine-cause-autism-4925 | 0 |
| 2085 | 2122 | Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014? | https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/who-shot-down-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-over-ukraine-on-july-17-2014-8129 | 0 |