"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will the Universe end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/","Metaculus",true,"70%",548
"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus",true,"31%",4894
"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus",true,"60%",789
"When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",290
"Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/","Metaculus",true,"6%",404
"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus",true,"12%",789
"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus",true,"61%",906
"Robocup Challenge","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/","Metaculus",true,"25%",300
"When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/","Metaculus",false,"none",293
"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/","Metaculus",false,"none",477
"When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",422
"If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you ""wake up""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/","Metaculus",true,"6%",530
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/","Metaculus",true,"35%",125
"Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/","Metaculus",true,"35%",289
"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/","Metaculus",true,"65%",263
"With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/","Metaculus",true,"20%",255
"Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"71%",641
"Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/","Metaculus",true,"36%",269
"A major United States earthquake by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/","Metaculus",true,"33%",515
"Will humans go extinct by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"1%",644
"Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"50%",248
"2˚C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"89%",358
"World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus",false,"none",305
"If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/","Metaculus",false,"none",79
"Increased off-world population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/","Metaculus",true,"94%",450
"Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"20%",225
"Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/","Metaculus",true,"68%",255
"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus",false,"none",454
"Answer to signal broadcast into space by 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/answer-to-signal-broadcast-into-space-by-2045/","Metaculus",true,"1%",241
"Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/","Metaculus",true,"53%",354
"Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"20%",456
"Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"45%",196
"Kessler syndrome by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"15%",422
"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus",false,"none",350
"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/","Metaculus",true,"15%",228
"Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"25%",362
"Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",425
"When will there be a mile-high building?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/","Metaculus",false,"none",203
"Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/","Metaculus",true,"71%",278
"Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"85%",1049
"Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus",true,"50%",374
"Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/","Metaculus",true,"35%",84
"Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/","Metaculus",true,"22%",337
"Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/","Metaculus",true,"90%",315
"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/","Metaculus",true,"30%",314
"Will Metaculus exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"85%",456
"Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/","Metaculus",true,"33%",245
"Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/","Metaculus",true,"30%",150
"Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/","Metaculus",true,"75%",224
"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"8%",355
"When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/","Metaculus",false,"none",112
"Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/","Metaculus",true,"5%",209
"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/","Metaculus",true,"16%",1116
"Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus",true,"26%",126
"When will commercial supersonic flight return?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/","Metaculus",false,"none",261
"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus",true,"23%",540
"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/","Metaculus",true,"70%",346
"Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"90%",297
"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus",true,"30%",350
"Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"54%",266
"How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/","Metaculus",false,"none",198
"Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered ""under serious threat"" by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/","Metaculus",true,"33%",174
"Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/","Metaculus",true,"50%",34
"Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/","Metaculus",true,"25%",217
"When will the student loan debt bubble ""pop""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/","Metaculus",false,"none",152
"When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/","Metaculus",false,"none",199
"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus",true,"38%",277
"Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/","Metaculus",true,"25%",190
"Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"33%",220
"Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/","Metaculus",false,"none",228
"Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/","Metaculus",false,"none",249
"Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/","Metaculus",false,"none",230
"Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/","Metaculus",false,"none",279
"Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/","Metaculus",false,"none",231
"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus",false,"none",245
"Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/","Metaculus",false,"none",226
"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"40%",129
"Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/","Metaculus",true,"64%",235
"Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus",true,"75%",468
"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/","Metaculus",true,"75%",131
"Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/","Metaculus",true,"3%",194
"When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/","Metaculus",false,"none",139
"When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/","Metaculus",false,"none",173
"Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"75%",484
"Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/","Metaculus",true,"20%",182
"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus",false,"none",217
"When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/","Metaculus",false,"none",117
"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/","Metaculus",true,"15%",176
"A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/","Metaculus",false,"none",146
"Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/","Metaculus",true,"3%",290
"Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/","Metaculus",true,"90%",277
"Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"50%",197
"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus",true,"5%",285
"Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's ""Dark Was the Night"" on Voyager I's Golden Record?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/","Metaculus",true,"4%",172
"When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",268
"What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus",true,"24%",231
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/","Metaculus",true,"27%",183
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/","Metaculus",true,"20%",241
"Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/","Metaculus",true,"30%",53
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/","Metaculus",true,"15%",279
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/","Metaculus",true,"3%",130
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/","Metaculus",true,"26%",183
"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",180
"Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/","Metaculus",true,"65%",131
"Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"8%",407
"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus",false,"none",265
"Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/","Metaculus",true,"50%",64
"Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/","Metaculus",true,"50%",75
"When will the first cloned human be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/","Metaculus",false,"none",150
"Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/","Metaculus",true,"73%",104
"3.6°C global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"31%",125
"Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/","Metaculus",false,"none",179
"The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/","Metaculus",true,"49%",123
"Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",153
"What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus",false,"none",128
"Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"25%",179
"Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/","Metaculus",true,"89%",396
"When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/","Metaculus",false,"none",118
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus",true,"5%",143
"Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"80%",105
"What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/","Metaculus",false,"none",136
"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/","Metaculus",true,"30%",385
"The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/","Metaculus",false,"none",126
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus",true,"1%",139
"Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/","Metaculus",true,"42%",116
"When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/","Metaculus",false,"none",123
"What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",69
"Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/","Metaculus",true,"60%",177
"Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/","Metaculus",true,"50%",177
"By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/","Metaculus",true,"20%",165
"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus",true,"8%",224
"What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",172
"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/","Metaculus",true,"5%",238
"What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",77
"Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/","Metaculus",true,"90%",216
"Will US income inequality increase by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"50%",212
"When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/","Metaculus",false,"none",181
"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"1%",221
"Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"26%",225
"Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"34%",266
"Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"99%",368
"Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"16%",70
"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus",true,"7.000000000000001%",227
"Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/","Metaculus",true,"75%",135
"What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",117
"Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"1%",150
"A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/","Metaculus",true,"99%",282
"Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/","Metaculus",true,"40%",115
"When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/","Metaculus",false,"none",125
"When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"When will the 10,000th human reach space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/","Metaculus",false,"none",142
"Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"10%",220
"Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in  2018?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/","Metaculus",true,"70%",173
"When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/","Metaculus",true,"90%",160
"Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/","Metaculus",true,"73%",310
"When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus",false,"none",92
"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus",true,"60%",339
"Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus",true,"56.99999999999999%",152
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/","Metaculus",true,"5%",105
"Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"5%",138
"When will the first human be born on another world?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/","Metaculus",false,"none",157
"Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"15%",554
"When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/","Metaculus",false,"none",127
"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"61%",172
"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",165
"When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/","Metaculus",false,"none",141
"When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/","Metaculus",false,"none",76
"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"20%",566
"Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/","Metaculus",true,"40%",70
"When will India become a World Bank high-income country?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/","Metaculus",false,"none",145
"When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/","Metaculus",false,"none",302
"When will we have micropayments?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/","Metaculus",false,"none",105
"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/","Metaculus",true,"60%",52
"Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"23%",207
"Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"7.000000000000001%",173
"Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/","Metaculus",true,"27%",50
"Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"39%",138
"Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"18%",193
"When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/","Metaculus",false,"none",89
"Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"25%",263
"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",122
"Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"40%",130
"When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/","Metaculus",true,"65%",286
"When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/","Metaculus",false,"none",147
"When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/","Metaculus",false,"none",152
"A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/","Metaculus",true,"69%",270
"What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/","Metaculus",false,"none",196
"Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/","Metaculus",true,"30%",102
"Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"63%",91
"Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/","Metaculus",true,"65%",81
"Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/","Metaculus",true,"1%",720
"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"24%",768
"Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/","Metaculus",true,"17%",144
"Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/","Metaculus",true,"75%",153
"Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/","Metaculus",true,"20%",194
"Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus",true,"32%",83
"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"40%",113
"Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"7.000000000000001%",96
"When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/","Metaculus",false,"none",69
"How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/","Metaculus",false,"none",28
"Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"1%",200
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",211
"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/","Metaculus",true,"80%",152
"By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/","Metaculus",true,"65%",122
"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/","Metaculus",true,"4%",175
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/","Metaculus",true,"94%",219
"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/","Metaculus",false,"none",108
"Is the Collatz Conjecture true?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/","Metaculus",true,"95%",147
"Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/","Metaculus",true,"92%",77
"If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/","Metaculus",false,"none",141
"When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/","Metaculus",false,"none",56
"Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/","Metaculus",true,"15%",339
"If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",108
"When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/","Metaculus",false,"none",127
"In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/","Metaculus",true,"70%",147
"When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/","Metaculus",false,"none",111
"If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",71
"If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, 
how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/","Metaculus",false,"none",103
"Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus",true,"9%",134
"When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/","Metaculus",true,"35%",79
"Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus",true,"45%",91
"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/","Metaculus",false,"none",91
"How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",181
"How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/","Metaculus",false,"none",130
"When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/","Metaculus",false,"none",181
"In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/","Metaculus",false,"none",154
"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/","Metaculus",false,"none",95
"Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/","Metaculus",true,"50%",48
"If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/","Metaculus",false,"none",80
"When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/","Metaculus",false,"none",54
"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus",true,"43%",65
"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus",false,"none",99
"How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",79
"When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/","Metaculus",false,"none",71
"When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/","Metaculus",false,"none",179
"When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus",false,"none",123
"How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus",false,"none",94
"How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/","Metaculus",false,"none",178
"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus",false,"none",102
"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus",false,"none",210
"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus",false,"none",67
"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus",false,"none",100
"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/","Metaculus",false,"none",117
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",122
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",84
"When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus",false,"none",85
"How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/","Metaculus",false,"none",145
"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/","Metaculus",true,"25%",126
"Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/","Metaculus",true,"35%",216
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/","Metaculus",false,"none",126
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/","Metaculus",false,"none",142
"Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"79%",138
"How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",71
"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus",false,"none",105
"Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/","Metaculus",true,"20%",91
"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",46
"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus",true,"10%",83
"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",122
"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/","Metaculus",false,"none",206
"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus",false,"none",217
"What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/","Metaculus",true,"79%",172
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/","Metaculus",false,"none",125
"If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",62
"If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/","Metaculus",true,"70%",120
"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/","Metaculus",true,"67%",372
"What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",73
"When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/","Metaculus",false,"none",82
"If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/","Metaculus",false,"none",84
"When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/","Metaculus",false,"none",72
"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus",false,"none",91
"Who will first land a person on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/","Metaculus",false,"none",224
"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/","Metaculus",false,"none",76
"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/","Metaculus",true,"80%",176
"When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/","Metaculus",false,"none",90
"Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/","Metaculus",true,"25%",65
"Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/","Metaculus",true,"53%",85
"What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",128
"In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",146
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus",true,"30%",124
"Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus",true,"20%",125
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus",false,"none",174
"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus",false,"none",142
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus",false,"none",88
"What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",28
"How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",118
"What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/","Metaculus",false,"none",72
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/","Metaculus",false,"none",97
"Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus",true,"50%",62
"When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/","Metaculus",false,"none",96
"Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/","Metaculus",true,"5%",66
"When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/","Metaculus",false,"none",59
"When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus",false,"none",186
"When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/","Metaculus",false,"none",185
"If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/","Metaculus",false,"none",11
"If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/","Metaculus",false,"none",161
"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/","Metaculus",false,"none",127
"What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",107
"What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus",true,"60%",57
"When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/","Metaculus",false,"none",94
"What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",110
"Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/","Metaculus",true,"14.000000000000002%",207
"Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/","Metaculus",true,"79%",220
"Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/","Metaculus",true,"49%",38
"Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"16%",57
"What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",370
"By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/","Metaculus",true,"25%",71
"How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/","Metaculus",true,"34%",28
"When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/","Metaculus",false,"none",84
"When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",89
"When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/","Metaculus",false,"none",74
"What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",171
"Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/","Metaculus",true,"75%",219
"Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/","Metaculus",true,"24%",69
"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/","Metaculus",false,"none",213
"What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/","Metaculus",true,"40%",145
"Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"15%",166
"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/","Metaculus",false,"none",94
"Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/","Metaculus",true,"11%",87
"Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/","Metaculus",true,"8%",79
"How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",92
"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus",true,"10%",418
"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/","Metaculus",true,"9%",208
"In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus",true,"5%",73
"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/","Metaculus",true,"60%",102
"Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus",true,"21%",99
"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",284
"Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/","Metaculus",true,"90%",1208
"When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/","Metaculus",false,"none",81
"How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/","Metaculus",false,"none",147
"What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"68%",126
"Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"88%",125
"At what point will at least ten technologies listed on ""The Rejuvenation Roadmap"" be released to the public?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/","Metaculus",false,"none",72
"Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"2%",133
"When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus",false,"none",306
"If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/","Metaculus",true,"77%",104
"How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",90
"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/","Metaculus",false,"none",407
"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/","Metaculus",true,"91%",294
"Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/","Metaculus",true,"40%",46
"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/","Metaculus",false,"none",143
"Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/","Metaculus",true,"8%",157
"When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/","Metaculus",false,"none",39
"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/","Metaculus",true,"2%",295
"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/","Metaculus",false,"none",94
"Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus",true,"10%",38
"Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"1%",81
"How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",77
"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",120
"What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus",false,"none",105
"What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",130
"Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/","Metaculus",true,"2%",118
"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus",false,"none",52
"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/","Metaculus",true,"11%",99
"Will Iowa host another ""first in the nation"" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/","Metaculus",true,"65%",95
"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus",true,"15%",126
"Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus",true,"10%",129
"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus",true,"90%",71
"Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"60%",233
"Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"46%",195
"When will the United States admit a new state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/","Metaculus",false,"none",154
"How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"15%",220
"Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",84
"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",215
"When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",111
"Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"26%",148
"Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"87%",259
"Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/","Metaculus",true,"10%",74
"Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/","Metaculus",true,"1%",89
"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus",true,"35%",295
"How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",168
"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus",false,"none",147
"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/","Metaculus",true,"86%",230
"If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus",true,"61%",64
"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/","Metaculus",false,"none",112
"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/","Metaculus",true,"71%",45
"Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/","Metaculus",true,"1%",159
"How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/","Metaculus",false,"none",105
"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus",true,"13%",2352
"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/","Metaculus",true,"15%",414
"Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/","Metaculus",true,"40%",68
"When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/","Metaculus",false,"none",89
"When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/","Metaculus",false,"none",72
"What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",112
"What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",368
"How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/","Metaculus",false,"none",15
"When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"When will space mining be profitable?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/","Metaculus",false,"none",76
"When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus",false,"none",155
"How many communist states will there be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",137
"Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/","Metaculus",true,"32%",101
"Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/","Metaculus",true,"52%",101
"Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/","Metaculus",true,"34%",54
"When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"27%",70
"When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/","Metaculus",false,"none",766
"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",598
"When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/","Metaculus",false,"none",138
"Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus",true,"85%",100
"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/","Metaculus",true,"61%",71
"Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/","Metaculus",true,"45%",47
"What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/","Metaculus",false,"none",567
"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus",true,"35%",83
"If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",150
"Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/","Metaculus",true,"65%",117
"When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/","Metaculus",false,"none",222
"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"40%",697
"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"6%",282
"When will the next Qatari general election be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/","Metaculus",false,"none",50
"What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/","Metaculus",false,"none",50
"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"12%",126
"When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"30%",104
"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"39%",127
"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus",false,"none",197
"When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/","Metaculus",false,"none",73
"If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus",false,"none",85
"If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus",false,"none",52
"Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/","Metaculus",true,"2%",169
"When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/","Metaculus",false,"none",95
"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",255
"When will China legalise same-sex marriage?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/","Metaculus",false,"none",501
"What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/","Metaculus",false,"none",93
"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/","Metaculus",true,"7.000000000000001%",336
"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus",false,"none",178
"What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",364
"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",137
"By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/","Metaculus",true,"36%",131
"Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"2%",112
"Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/","Metaculus",true,"85%",189
"When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/","Metaculus",false,"none",285
"How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",111
"What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"52%",52
"If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/","Metaculus",false,"none",56
"What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",215
"Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/","Metaculus",true,"64%",80
"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"33%",55
"When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/","Metaculus",false,"none",1513
"What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/","Metaculus",false,"none",138
"How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/","Metaculus",false,"none",73
"If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus",false,"none",69
"Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/","Metaculus",true,"65%",109
"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"2%",141
"After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/","Metaculus",false,"none",136
"What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus",true,"20%",461
"What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus",false,"none",24
"When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/","Metaculus",false,"none",72
"Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/","Metaculus",true,"40%",30
"Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus",true,"1%",166
"When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/","Metaculus",false,"none",32
"Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/","Metaculus",true,"26%",58
"How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/","Metaculus",false,"none",96
"When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/","Metaculus",false,"none",63
"How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/","Metaculus",false,"none",109
"Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"24%",36
"Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/","Metaculus",true,"25%",22
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/","Metaculus",true,"70%",136
"Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/","Metaculus",true,"50%",28
"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/","Metaculus",false,"none",32
"When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/","Metaculus",false,"none",103
"What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",116
"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/","Metaculus",true,"75%",91
"What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/","Metaculus",true,"25%",69
"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus",true,"5%",97
"When will North Korea become a democracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",19
"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/","Metaculus",false,"none",110
"What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/","Metaculus",false,"none",81
"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus",false,"none",68
"Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"5%",109
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",158
"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/","Metaculus",false,"none",132
"How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/","Metaculus",false,"none",31
"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"25%",44
"Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus",true,"25%",106
"Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/","Metaculus",true,"62%",34
"Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/","Metaculus",true,"10%",29
"When will a technology replace screens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/","Metaculus",false,"none",93
"What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus",false,"none",98
"If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/","Metaculus",true,"60%",35
"When will Croatia adopt the euro?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/","Metaculus",false,"none",77
"When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/","Metaculus",false,"none",123
"When will we have a new Pope?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/","Metaculus",false,"none",88
"In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus",false,"none",122
"Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/","Metaculus",true,"13%",97
"Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/","Metaculus",true,"30%",40
"Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/","Metaculus",true,"30%",50
"Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/","Metaculus",true,"30%",145
"If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/","Metaculus",false,"none",40
"What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",100
"When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/","Metaculus",false,"none",149
"Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/","Metaculus",true,"30%",40
"When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/","Metaculus",true,"70%",25
"Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus",true,"3%",90
"When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/","Metaculus",false,"none",186
"What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/","Metaculus",false,"none",88
"When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",110
"What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",12
"What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/","Metaculus",false,"none",52
"Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/","Metaculus",true,"59%",520
"When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/","Metaculus",false,"none",224
"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus",true,"44%",281
"Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"5%",134
"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus",true,"60%",20
"Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"2%",60
"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus",true,"1%",1167
"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus",true,"92%",107
"Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4775/will-richard-spencer-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/","Metaculus",true,"1%",177
"Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4776/will-charles-murray-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/","Metaculus",true,"1%",136
"Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"20%",84
"While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/","Metaculus",true,"86%",368
"Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4784/will-james-lindsay-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/","Metaculus",true,"1%",123
"What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus",true,"70%",73
"When will a universal flu vaccine be available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/","Metaculus",false,"none",63
"What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/","Metaculus",false,"none",36
"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/","Metaculus",false,"none",27
"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/","Metaculus",false,"none",100
"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus",false,"none",102
"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/","Metaculus",false,"none",110
"Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/","Metaculus",true,"71%",476
"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/","Metaculus",true,"74%",121
"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/","Metaculus",true,"65%",33
"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",25
"When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",213
"When will the VIX index fall below 20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/","Metaculus",false,"none",216
"When will the VIX index climb above 50?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus",true,"70%",95
"When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus",false,"none",77
"When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/","Metaculus",false,"none",31
"In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/","Metaculus",true,"27%",54
"When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/","Metaculus",false,"none",116
"What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",74
"How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/","Metaculus",false,"none",326
"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",59
"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",17
"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"33%",36
"Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"22%",52
"Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"33%",33
"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus",true,"25%",25
"Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"25%",53
"Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/","Metaculus",true,"16%",53
"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"51%",47
"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus",false,"none",100
"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/","Metaculus",false,"none",88
"Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/","Metaculus",true,"6%",53
"Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/","Metaculus",true,"40%",31
"Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/","Metaculus",true,"66%",32
"Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"20%",34
"How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/","Metaculus",false,"none",67
"What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"5%",557
"What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",52
"When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/","Metaculus",false,"none",132
"How many of the ""priority paths"" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",22
"Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/","Metaculus",true,"99%",1076
"Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus",true,"73%",57
"How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",25
"When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/","Metaculus",false,"none",68
"Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus",true,"8%",137
"Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/","Metaculus",true,"14.000000000000002%",135
"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"34%",43
"What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"When will the Woke index in US elite media top?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/","Metaculus",false,"none",21
"When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/","Metaculus",false,"none",79
"Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/","Metaculus",true,"8%",37
"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/","Metaculus",true,"5%",225
"[Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/","Metaculus",false,"none",154
"How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"1%",110
"When will the first baby be born away from Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/","Metaculus",false,"none",57
"When will One Piece end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/","Metaculus",false,"none",103
"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",62
"Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/","Metaculus",true,"16%",33
"What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus",false,"none",21
"13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/","Metaculus",false,"none",20
"What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/","Metaculus",false,"none",54
"What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/","Metaculus",false,"none",37
"What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/","Metaculus",false,"none",37
"Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/","Metaculus",true,"50%",17
"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus",false,"none",44
"When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/","Metaculus",false,"none",20
"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus",true,"27%",59
"If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus",true,"62%",19
"What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",28
"How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus",true,"64%",92
"Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a ""hidden website"" on the Tor Network during 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/","Metaculus",true,"45%",83
"When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/","Metaculus",false,"none",176
"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"5%",49
"What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"3%",95
"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus",true,"8%",439
"When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/","Metaculus",false,"none",125
"Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus",true,"3%",164
"Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/","Metaculus",true,"5%",298
"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",20
"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"45%",156
"If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/","Metaculus",true,"27%",37
"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/","Metaculus",false,"none",141
"If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",137
"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",156
"Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"72%",87
"Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus",true,"16%",399
"What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",68
"Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/","Metaculus",true,"70%",34
"Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus",true,"40%",64
"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"40%",212
"When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/","Metaculus",true,"41%",50
"Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"21%",300
"When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/","Metaculus",false,"none",54
"When will the first human head transplant occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/","Metaculus",false,"none",28
"Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"61%",86
"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/","Metaculus",true,"24%",30
"How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/","Metaculus",false,"none",91
"Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/","Metaculus",true,"50%",26
"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus",false,"none",74
"How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus",false,"none",75
"Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/","Metaculus",true,"11%",70
"Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"40%",232
"Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/","Metaculus",true,"2%",192
"Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/","Metaculus",true,"62%",44
"What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/","Metaculus",true,"21%",27
"When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/","Metaculus",false,"none",59
"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus",false,"none",74
"When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/","Metaculus",false,"none",69
"What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/","Metaculus",false,"none",28
"What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/","Metaculus",false,"none",95
"When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/","Metaculus",false,"none",149
"When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/","Metaculus",false,"none",75
"If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/","Metaculus",true,"53%",62
"Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"33%",52
"Will ""best practice"" in treating Coronavirus involve administering  Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/","Metaculus",true,"25%",77
"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus",true,"44%",98
"Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus",true,"43%",68
"Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus",true,"37%",36
"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"35%",94
"Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/","Metaculus",true,"23%",54
"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/","Metaculus",true,"68%",71
"How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus",true,"22%",223
"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus",false,"none",32
"Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/","Metaculus",true,"59%",37
"When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/","Metaculus",false,"none",19
"Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/","Metaculus",true,"30%",53
"Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/","Metaculus",true,"25%",193
"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus",true,"50%",33
"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus",true,"43%",38
"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/","Metaculus",true,"73%",144
"Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/","Metaculus",true,"8%",56
"When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/","Metaculus",true,"20%",61
"Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/","Metaculus",true,"36%",74
"Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",184
"What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",135
"How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/","Metaculus",false,"none",116
"When will be the next S&P 500 correction?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/","Metaculus",true,"72%",31
"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus",true,"27%",48
"Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/","Metaculus",true,"21%",34
"How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus",false,"none",17
"Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/","Metaculus",false,"none",71
"Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/","Metaculus",true,"16%",108
"Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/","Metaculus",true,"5%",243
"When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/","Metaculus",false,"none",52
"How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",95
"What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/","Metaculus",false,"none",36
"Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/","Metaculus",true,"50%",26
"How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",56
"Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"6%",65
"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/","Metaculus",true,"73%",51
"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/","Metaculus",true,"40%",45
"What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/","Metaculus",false,"none",19
"Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus",true,"79%",60
"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/","Metaculus",true,"38%",102
"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus",true,"50%",691
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",54
"When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/","Metaculus",false,"none",31
"What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",36
"When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"75%",32
"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/","Metaculus",true,"60%",35
"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",92
"What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus",true,"40%",52
"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/","Metaculus",true,"57.99999999999999%",137
"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus",true,"35%",30
"What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",75
"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",128
"What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",80
"When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus",false,"none",155
"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",92
"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/","Metaculus",false,"none",32
"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus",true,"40%",49
"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",22
"By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus",false,"none",17
"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"50%",22
"Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus",true,"33%",63
"When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/","Metaculus",false,"none",12
"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",48
"Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/","Metaculus",true,"56.99999999999999%",45
"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus",true,"32%",30
"Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/","Metaculus",true,"3%",244
"Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"37%",164
"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus",false,"none",274
"What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus",true,"65%",211
"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",125
"By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5747/will-realdonaldtrump-or-potus-be-suspended/","Metaculus",true,"54%",141
"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus",true,"37%",259
"What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus",false,"none",152
"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus",false,"none",57
"Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"98%",360
"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus",false,"none",122
"Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/","Metaculus",true,"71%",22
"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",50
"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus",false,"none",514
"What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",23
"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus",false,"none",21
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",111
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",56
"How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/","Metaculus",false,"none",138
"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",46
"When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/","Metaculus",false,"none",15
"When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",298
"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus",true,"28.999999999999996%",33
"How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5811/sputnik-v-sars-cov-2-vaccine-efficacy/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus",true,"50%",68
"Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/","Metaculus",true,"30%",38
"When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/","Metaculus",true,"67%",114
"Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/","Metaculus",true,"21%",381
"How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",50
"How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",26
"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus",true,"23%",58
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus",false,"none",67
"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/","Metaculus",false,"none",19
"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus",true,"80%",129
"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/","Metaculus",false,"none",78
"What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus",false,"none",48
"Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/","Metaculus",true,"40%",16
"Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/","Metaculus",true,"51%",27
"What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus",false,"none",166
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/","Metaculus",false,"none",248
"Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"23%",78
"What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",25
"Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/","Metaculus",true,"50%",67
"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/","Metaculus",true,"54%",34
"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/","Metaculus",true,"56.99999999999999%",39
"Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/","Metaculus",true,"1%",47
"Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/","Metaculus",true,"26%",48
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",121
"How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",126
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",154
"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",178
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",142
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",144
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",188
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",141
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",137
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",124
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",272
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",167
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",158
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",158
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",127
"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",291
"What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/","Metaculus",false,"none",152
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/","Metaculus",false,"none",159
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/","Metaculus",false,"none",139
"When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/","Metaculus",false,"none",165
"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus",true,"30%",138
"Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"10%",111
"Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/","Metaculus",true,"33%",190
"When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/","Metaculus",false,"none",293
"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"67%",96
"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"20%",100
"What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",147
"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"55.00000000000001%",134
"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",128
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",153
"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",81
"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"30%",215
"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus",false,"none",177
"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",192
"How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",106
"What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",113
"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",209
"What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",167
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",229
"How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",157
"What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",189
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",170
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",163
"What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",90
"How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",167
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",164
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",148
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",142
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will  United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",133
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus",false,"none",139
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",169
"What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",150
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus",false,"none",113
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/","Metaculus",false,"none",169
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/","Metaculus",false,"none",230
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",166
"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus",false,"none",54
"Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/","Metaculus",true,"71%",293
"Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/","Metaculus",true,"45%",63
"What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",30
"For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",37
"What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",33
"Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus",true,"40%",35
"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",20
"For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/","Metaculus",true,"67%",42
"What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/","Metaculus",false,"none",82
"What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus",false,"none",70
"How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/","Metaculus",true,"80%",92
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/","Metaculus",false,"none",30
"How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/","Metaculus",true,"99%",284
"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/","Metaculus",true,"61%",126
"What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus",false,"none",26
"Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/","Metaculus",true,"8%",46
"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/","Metaculus",true,"44%",43
"Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/","Metaculus",true,"60%",40
"When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus",false,"none",79
"Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/","Metaculus",true,"23%",80
"Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/","Metaculus",true,"15%",65
"Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/","Metaculus",true,"12%",59
"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus",false,"none",26
"How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/","Metaculus",true,"25%",18
"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/","Metaculus",true,"94%",351
"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus",false,"none",68
"Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/","Metaculus",true,"30%",49
"When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus",true,"76%",72
"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus",true,"40%",319
"What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/","Metaculus",false,"none",16
"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",17
"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",30
"How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",34
"How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",30
"When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",31
"What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/","Metaculus",false,"none",25
"What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus",true,"69%",97
"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus",false,"none",178
"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",40
"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"25%",101
"What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",25
"Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/","Metaculus",true,"35%",18
"Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/","Metaculus",true,"23%",115
"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus",false,"none",135
"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus",false,"none",44
"Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/","Metaculus",true,"5%",41
"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",29
"What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/","Metaculus",false,"none",62
"How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",51
"When will there be at least one billion Americans?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/","Metaculus",false,"none",64
"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus",false,"none",24
"When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",43
"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/","Metaculus",false,"none",76
"How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/","Metaculus",false,"none",15
"By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",80
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/","Metaculus",false,"none",82
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",63
"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/","Metaculus",true,"19%",25
"When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus",false,"none",67
"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus",false,"none",39
"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus",false,"none",45
"How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/","Metaculus",false,"none",39
"Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/","Metaculus",true,"4%",143
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",65
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",86
"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",65
"By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus",false,"none",68
"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus",false,"none",111
"When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus",false,"none",83
"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus",true,"5%",317
"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus",true,"20%",95
"How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",18
"When will the next interstellar object be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/","Metaculus",false,"none",41
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",63
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",61
"What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",80
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection  Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",56
"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",76
"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",69
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/","Metaculus",false,"none",63
"How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6237/num-of-first-doses-given-in-uk-by-15-feb/","Metaculus",false,"none",210
"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus",false,"none",108
"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",60
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/","Metaculus",false,"none",108
"How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",57
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",53
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",48
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection  Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",55
"What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus",false,"none",47
"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus",false,"none",49
"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus",false,"none",87
"Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"34%",122
"Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus",true,"57.99999999999999%",49
"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/","Metaculus",true,"70%",39
"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/","Metaculus",false,"none",42
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus",false,"none",48
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/","Metaculus",false,"none",66
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus",false,"none",58
"Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus",true,"20%",17
"What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/","Metaculus",false,"none",38
"How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/","Metaculus",false,"none",27
"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus",true,"28.000000000000004%",85
"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/","Metaculus",true,"75%",28
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/","Metaculus",false,"none",35
"When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/","Metaculus",false,"none",22
"How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/","Metaculus",false,"none",22
"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus",true,"52%",151
"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cducsu-chancellor-after-2021-elections/","Metaculus",true,"75%",26
"When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/","Metaculus",false,"none",94
"When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/","Metaculus",false,"none",24
"What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus",false,"none",100
"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/","Metaculus",true,"40%",17
"Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/","Metaculus",true,"16%",32
"Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/","Metaculus",true,"9%",50
"Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-hypothesis-proved-true-by-2100/","Metaculus",true,"88%",13