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2OFTW moves more than $2.5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2020https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: One for the World — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
3Conditioned on it still being active, OFTW moves more than $5 million to GiveWell top charities in 2023https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: One for the World — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
4One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after one yearhttps://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2019[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
5One for the World — General Support. We renew our support to OFTW after two yearshttps://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: One for the World — General Support. Resolution: September 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
6Zusha! is recommended as a top charity by year-end 2017https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
7Zusha! appears more cost-effective than AMFhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
8Zusha! appears roughly as cost-effective as AMFhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
9Zusha! appears less cost-effective than AMF (but is still a top charity recommendation)https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Georgetown University Initiative on Innovation, Development, and Evaluation — Zusha! Road Safety Campaign. Resolution: By year-end 2017[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
10Good Ventures gives additional funding to Charity Science: Health in one yearhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support. Resolution: 2017[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
11Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
12We will recommend another GiveWell Incubation Grant to Charity Science Health by August 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
13Charity Science Health will be a GiveWell top charity by the end of 2019https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Charity Science: Health — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
14Good Ventures gives Results for Development a second grant of approximately the same size in 12 monthshttps://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Resolution: 2017[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
15Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up. Results for Development is a top charity by the end of 2019https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Scale-Up[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCThttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
17New Incentives increases vaccination rates by >17 percentage points and this is not detected by the RCThttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyActual estimate was "small probability, close to 0%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
18New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is detected by the RCThttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
19New Incentives increases vaccination rates by between 6 and 17 percentage points and this is either not detected by the RCT or is unclearhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
20New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we either conclude as much or are uncertain enough that we choose not to pursue New Incentives furtherhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
21New Incentives increases vaccination rates by <6 percentage points and we falsely believe it is higher and do pursue New Incentives furtherhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
22After seeing the RCT results, we are significantly uncertain about whether or not to recommend New Incentives as a top charityhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
23GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >3x as cost-effective as GiveDirectlyhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
24GiveWell estimates that New Incentives is >2x as cost-effective as AMF:https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyActual estimate was "<10%". Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9299999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
25New Incentives becomes a top charity by November 2020https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (November 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
26New Incentives is a top charity in 2016https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
27New Incentives is a top charity in 2017https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
28New Incentives is a top charity in 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
29Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least twice as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.32999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
30Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least five times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
31Our 2017 cost-effectiveness estimate for New Incentives is at least ten times as good as our 2017 estimate for unconditional cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
32New Incentives brings in at least $250,000 from a funder other than Good Ventures and the Lampert Family Foundation by the end of 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
33New Incentives still operates in 2019https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
34We provide funding for an RCT of New Incentives' programhttps://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
35New Incentives is a top charity at the end of 2019https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
36No Lean Season is a top charity at the end of giving season 2017https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (December 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
37We find a significant error in Evidence Action's financial documents in 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
38An Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season becomes a top charity by the end of 2021https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
39The Deworm the World Initiative's room for more funding (including execution levels 1 and 2) exceeds $10 million as of November 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
40GiveWell Incubation Grants provides at least $250,000 to an Evidence Action Beta program other than No Lean Season by the end of 2018https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2017)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
41No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2017https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
42No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2018https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
43No Lean Season (or a related organization) is a top charity in 2019https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
44Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least five times as good as cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
45Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is less than twice as good as cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
46Our 2016 cost-effectiveness estimate for No Lean Season is at least ten times as good as cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — No Lean Season (March 2016 grant)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
47The study detects an effect that is too small relative to the cost of implementing the intervention for it to be worth scaling uphttps://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
48Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study yields a result that we're not confident inhttps://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
49Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The study detects an effect that would be worth scaling up, but we are unable to find an implementer interested in doing sohttps://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(for instance, if GiveDirectly were to decide not to incorporate the intervention because it is too time-intensive or diverts attention from other activities, or because GiveDirectly interprets the study's results differently than we do). Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
50Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers. The intervention has no measurable effect, and we could have predicted this prior to the study by surveying the existing literature more thoroughlyhttps://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Mindset Engagement in Cash Transfers[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
51GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the first year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 4 percentage pointshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
52GiveWell’s best guess is that Evidence Action’s intervention increases coverage relative to the counterfactual in the second year of Phase 2 of the program by at least 8 percentage points (cumulatively)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
53Evidence Action requests funding for Phase 3 of this program because it believes Phase 2 to have been successfulhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
54Estimates of anemia rates from the India National Family Health Survey in an average of 5 randomly chosen non-Evidence Action-supported states do not show anemia declining by more than 2 percentage points per year over the last 5 years (e.g., due to iron fortification or other changes)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
55Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we retrospectively model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfers (using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation ("Phase 2")[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
56The KLPS-4 survey significantly positively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that increases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2xhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
57The KLPS-4 survey significantly negatively updates us [GiveWell] on deworming, i.e. finds a result that decreases our estimated cost-effectiveness for deworming by at least 2xhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: UC Berkeley — KLPS-4 Survey[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
58This grant does not lead to any new top charities.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
59The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that is 1-2x the cost-effectiveness of our marginal spending on current top charities.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
60The Beta incubator leads to a new top charity that's >2x as cost-effective as our marginal spending on current top charitieshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
61The Beta incubator program has impacts that lead us to make a public case that it was extremely cost-effective overallhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(i.e., it resulted in at least $10 million in spending at 15x the cost-effectiveness of cash transfers or more). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
62Our marginal spending on top charities will be 2.5x as cost-effective as cash or less (using our current cost-effectiveness estimate for cash)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Incubator Program. Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
63Following its RCT, we estimate that New Incentives is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
64Following its RCT, we estimate that Charity Science Health is at least 5x as cost-effective as 2018 cash transfers via GiveDirectly.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
65By end of 2018, we model the marginal cost-effectiveness of giving to our top charities at roughly 2x cash.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
66We publish a blog post on IDinsight's work on AMF's monitoring.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Embedded GiveWell Team (2018). Resolution: February 2019[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
67Evidence Action raises a total of $6,120,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2022https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
68Evidence Action raises a total of $40,800,000 in donations from institutional donors by the end of 2024https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
69The Indian government will allow Evidence Action to accept foreign donations to the Evidence Action India Foundation by the end of 2023https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
70Evidence Action will have hired a Chief Program Officer and at least one other leader by the end of 2019.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
71Evidence Action will have hired all new full-time positions for the fundraising function and senior leadership by the end of 2020https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
72Evidence Action will have finalized a strategy on its approach to compensation by the end of 2020https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action — Strengthen Operations (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
73New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 3x as cost-effective as cashhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
74New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 5x as cost-effective as cashhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
75New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 7.5x as cost-effective as cashhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
76New Incentives is a top charity and is ≥ 10x as cost-effective as cashhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
77The RCT results are inconclusive, such that after seeing them we have significant uncertainty about whether to make New Incentives a top charityhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: November 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
78We cite our learning experience from the New Incentives RCT as part of our reasoning for funding a future RCThttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(including any RCTs related to current GiveWell Incubation Grant recipients, such as Evidence Action's Beta Incubator). Associated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
79The New Incentives RCT results are cited by another funder or agency when making a recommendation for or against pursuing CCTs for immunization, or as a reference in future researchhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Endline Evaluation of New Incentives RCT. Resolution: December 2024[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
80We believe direct funding of IFA in India is no more than 2x less cost-effective than we believe it is nowhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(as discussed above, we currently estimate it's roughly 9x as cost-effective as cash transfers, using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
81Evidence Action believes that it can add substantial value to India's IFA program and requests over $500,000 for a follow-up grant to move past scoping.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
82Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $6 million total on IFA technical assistance that GiveWell models as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
83Conditional on Evidence Action getting funding to do technical assistance past the scoping stage, Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
84Implied from other calculations: Evidence Action ultimately spends at least $15 million total on IFA technical assistance that we model as 10x as effective (or more) than cash transfershttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(using our January 2018 CEA as a baseline). Associated grant: Evidence Action Beta — Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
85Nick produces a paper summarizing his work on this project.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
86Nick collects forecasts from at least 10 academics on at least four studies.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
87The academics' pooled forecast of the probability that New Incentives' intervention increases vaccine coverage by 15 percentage points differs from GiveWell's internal forecast by at least 10 percentage pointshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(for instance, the academics give a 45% chance while we give a 60% chance). Associated grant: Nick Otis — Forecasting Research. Resolution: By end of 2019.[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
88R4D or an R4D program is a top charityhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
89R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least half as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charitieshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
90R4D or an R4D program is a top charity and we estimate that donations to that program are at least twice as cost-effective as the most cost-effective unfunded giving opportunity among top charitieshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(i.e. where we recommend donors give on the margin). Associated grant: Results for Development — Childhood Pneumonia Treatment Program (2019). Resolution: December 2023[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
91Charity Science Health receives enough funding from other donors to continue its operations through the end of 2020.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Charity Science Health — Exit Grant[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
92The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, AND it will not find a statistically significant result on COVID-19.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
93The RCT will find a statistically significant result on self-reported respiratory symptoms, but NOT COVID-19.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
94The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was lower than expected incidence of COVID-19 or self-reported respiratory symptoms.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
95The RCT will NOT generate a statistically significant result on AT LEAST ONE of the outcomes, and the authors will say in their first preprint that an important reason was a failure to increase mask-wearing.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
96The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on self-reported respiratory symptoms.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
97Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 0-10%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
98Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 10-20%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
99Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 20-30%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
100Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of 30-40%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
101Statistically significant result and reduction in respiratory symptoms of >40%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
102The paper will not report an objectively measured disease outcome confirmed with diagnostic tests.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
103The RCT will NOT find a statistically significant (p>0.05) impact on preferred measure of COVID-19.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
104Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 0-10%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
105Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 10-20%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
106Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 20-30%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
107Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of 30-40%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
108Statistically significant result and reduction in COVID-19 of >40%.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyConditional on a COVID-19 outcome being reported in the published paper. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
109At least one academic paper will be published in a top 200 academic journal on the basis of this RCT.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
110Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in over 50,000 tweets according to altmetrics.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
111Conditional on a preprint being published the study will receive justified criticism.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyCriticisms to be as bad as: https://metrics.stanford.edu/PNAS%20retraction%20request%20LoE%20061820; determined by a panel of three GiveWell researchers if it's not obvious. Associated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
112Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, the WHO will publish an update to its guidance on masks mentioning this study.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
113Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, we will see at least one country with a population >20 million update its guidance on mask-wearing, explicitly referring to EITHER this evidence OR updated WHO guidance that refers to this evidence.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
114Conditional on the study getting a statistically significant result on EITHER respiratory symptoms OR COVID-19, it will be mentioned in the minutes of the UK's SAGE discussions.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: June 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
115A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by October 1, 2020.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: October 1, 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
116A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by December 1, 2020.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: December 1, 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.44999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
117A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by February 1, 2021.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: February 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
118A preprint is published (i.e., a draft paper is published on the internet) on the basis of this RCT by April 1, 2021.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovations for Poverty Action — Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Face Masks on COVID-19. Resolution: April 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
119By the end of 2019 we will fund at least one long-term follow-up study because of this projecthttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
120By the end of 2019 we will fund at least two long-term follow-up studies because of this projecthttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
121By the end of 2019 we renew the grant to fund further research into intervention areas where we could potentially fund long-term follow-up studieshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
122By the end of 2020 we will fund at least five long-term follow-up studies because of this projecthttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
123By the end of 2020 non-GiveWell funder(s) will fund at least three long-term follow-up studies because of this projecthttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
124By the end of 2020 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocated more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2020.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
125By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $10 million in funding from 2018-2025https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
126By the end of 2025 a long-term follow-up study funded because of this project (by us or another funder) will affect how we allocate more than $40 million in funding from 2018-2025https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Center for Effective Global Action at UC Berkeley — Scoping RCTs for Long-Term Follow-Ups[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
127We recommend a second grant to CPSPhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAverage of two forecasts: 65% and 67%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
128Conditional on CPSP entering Nepal, Nepal will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAverage of two forecasts: 33% and 55%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
129Conditional on CPSP entering India, India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAverage of two forecasts: 5% and 10%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
130Conditional on CPSP entering India, a state in India will pass legislation to ban at least one of the three pesticides most commonly used in suicide.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAverage of two forecasts: 35% and 15%. Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
131Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the banhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
132Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the banhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy(as determined by national level data or representative survey data). Associated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15000000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
133Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
134Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >10% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
135Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in Nepal, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
136Conditional on legislation to ban pesticides used in suicide being passed in India, the pesticide suicide rate is >15% lower in the combined three years after the ban than it is in the three years before the ban (as determined by national level data or representative survey data)https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention — General Support[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
137GiveWell makes another grant to IGIhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
138IGI is able to raise more than $1 million in funding from other sourceshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Innovation in Government Initiative — General Support. Resolution: January 1, 2021[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
139At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to this researchhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: IDinsight — Beneficiary Preferences Survey (2019)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
140Fortify Health becomes a top charity.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: November 2022[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
141Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 8 mills.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
142Fortify Health has successfully signed agreements to install equipment with at least an additional 16 mills.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
143Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 8 additional partner mills.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
144Fortify Health has successfully installed equipment in at least 16 additional partner mills.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
145Fortify Health successfully maintains its four existing miller partnerships.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
146Laboratory tests from random samples of atta produced by Fortify Health's partner mills do not fall more than 1mg below the target (21.25 mg of iron per kilogram of wheat flour) in more than 25% of cases.https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2019). Resolution: July 2020[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
147GiveWell makes another grant to Fortify Health to work on iron fortification in Indiahttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
148Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least one millhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
149Fortify Health completes installation of fortification equipment in at least five millshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
150Fortify Health becomes a GiveWell top charityhttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
151GiveWell models Fortify Health as more than 10x as cost-effective as cash after updating our CEA based on the Cochrane review of iron fortification that is scheduled to be released in 2018https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Fortify Health — General Support (2018)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
152GiveWell will make a decision by September 30, 2020, about whether to recommend that Open Philanthropy and other donors continue to fund New Incentiveshttps://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
153We will consider this grant a success in 10 years. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-programGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Harvard University — Solar Geoengineering Research Program [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
154Two years from now, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the fieldhttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-aiGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: UC Berkeley — Center for Human-Compatible AI (2016). Resolution: 2018[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
155CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policyhttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
156CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledgeshttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Compassion in World Farming USA — General Support (2016)[{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
157We will consider this grant a cost-effective success in one yearhttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
158This grant will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level over the next three yearshttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: Impact Justice — Restorative Justice Project [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
15980,000 Hours claims at least 1,500 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.33999999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16080,000 Hours claims at least 2,400 impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6699999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16180,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16280,000 Hours raises at least $750,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Projecthttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.30000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
16380,000 Hours raises at least $1,250,000 by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Projecthttps://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: 80,000 Hours — General Support [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2
164The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016%https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting#Internal_forecastsGiveWell/OpenPhilanthropyAssociated grant: University of Pennsylvania — Philip Tetlock on Forecasting [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}]2