93 lines
24 KiB
Plaintext
93 lines
24 KiB
Plaintext
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
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"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
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"% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/e1ca8cc6-33a4-4e38-9ef3-553a050ba0a9","Foretold","","[]",5.5,,2
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"A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/9386c0c2-d8df-4e17-9aba-98b2b60c6608","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",4,,2
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"A bioengineering project kills at least five people by 2023-02-15","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ecd31a5b-75ae-4785-89f9-6be85ade3af0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3,,2
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"How many papers will cite ""Logical Induction"" by Garrabrant, S. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/12d6442f-3f73-43af-a5b5-de66df236bde","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"How many papers will cite ""Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems"" by Hubinger, E. et al. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/85769e44-27fe-4f28-aff2-16ffc735c573","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"Will GiveWell renew the grant to the Centre for Pesticide Suicide Prevention?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/be2b184b-9162-453b-a31a-f31204388324","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1.5,,2
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"By the end of 2020, what % of US hens will live in cage-free housing?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5077bdb-25ff-4027-9a41-3dd5e78e08ac","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
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"Will SB 592 clear the California state Assembly?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d97e690d-baeb-4e45-bf48-dca41535e1e1","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30500000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
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"5 cities with at least 50k population implement approval voting by 2022","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b5ef0f81-18c4-42fa-864e-e8dc0d9ea8d6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7.5,,2
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"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/efbd2e5c-185d-451b-a54a-72be1a302a10","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/f69988cc-f2c2-4dc9-aca0-2aae01a2606d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
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"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/862c4482-b77e-49bd-89e6-c28bd664f0f7","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
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"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to the University of Oxford?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51eaef45-463b-4c85-bd6c-62e267bfbadd","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to UC Berkeley?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/bfdeb28d-deb4-44b8-91e0-a840b5564620","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to Global Health and Development between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/feff8be7-0a44-48d7-99a2-0015faa64c14","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to U.S. policy between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/ee8e154d-c7d8-4337-905d-0fd5e1fdd924","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"How many preregistrations on OSF will there be at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/8ae516ed-5d4d-4008-bcf8-d86e4ae814d6","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
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"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to scientific research between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dfc6e8e4-0a36-4e57-b3d1-004fce0bbd4d","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
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"How much in grants will OpenPhil recommend to AI safety between 2020 and 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/cb1d4afc-7200-48b3-aa75-06e0b4d451b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"What will the Metaculus community median probability for AI catastrophe by 2100 be in 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b9034665-5ab1-44df-9af3-0a954759b3df","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
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"What % of grant dollars made to AI Safety by OpenPhil in 2020 will go to MIRI?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7265aead-923a-4a61-957a-be846741a889","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
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"How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the end of 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0b2ff995-6b72-49d3-90b6-e5ba9ebb5781","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
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"Will MIRI still exist in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6fbca8b0-740b-4c9e-b0cb-aa5bdc30a4ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9233333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
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"How many nuclear warheads will the US have in 2029?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/b76f74a0-c3a0-4530-b27c-e462ef593893","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"Will Good Policies still be running at the end of 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1a5a05b6-0dc7-4725-b559-e732d394ed28","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
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"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1e42ecfd-5117-4e91-9eb8-f27920029131","Foretold","","[]",8,,2
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"How many papers will cite ""Embedded Agency"" by Demski, A. and Garrabrant, S. at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/2336bbb0-538b-44c4-a48d-04c9c5e842de","Foretold","","[]",7,,2
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"What percentage of grant dollars from the Global Health and Development EA Fund distributed in 2020 will go towards deworming organisations?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7fd75c13-a2ed-4e76-9d44-09867d06ca5a","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
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"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional whole pieces of farmed animal muscle tissue have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a71cd5b8-fdcf-45f7-9168-822e11c0e406","Foretold","","[]",2.5,,2
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"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional ground meats will have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/35caf084-9436-49c3-a046-eea6a8c8bf7a","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
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"When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-competitive cultured alternative, in years after 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/089b42c8-ab9d-420c-9088-899b33df9efc","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dc8c4beb-2f68-40e6-88e0-7fef557ef534","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1244c18b-8b0d-45a1-9d66-97f8f6c7c60b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/a547db8c-3906-43d6-afa8-138b9406ec53","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
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"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/1b3674e6-a036-4887-80bb-fea8f24ff118","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"Will the Albert Schweitzer Foundation remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/eedcf35c-1acc-45c6-9600-36c9a6efd53a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
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"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/294d918c-99fb-4bb8-a162-2b248b328789","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"Will Animal Equality remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/605b7ed3-fd73-4979-8252-a86dcb4dc04a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5033333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/563268d2-81b3-4bab-9ef5-c7a0a731a743","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7866666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"Will the Good Food Institute remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/d05a9b4b-317e-419b-acdd-9f1945f2372a","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14666666666666672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
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"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6d2dc33f-87d3-4817-8577-8e8643c7b94b","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23333333333333328,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"Will the Humane League remain an ACE top charity in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/51970fcb-bc3d-4be6-aa7a-41ca9eef0ff3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16666666666666674,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5.5,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the Animal Welfare EA Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/dd958638-c4fd-4b91-831c-ca3289ddc4ee","Foretold","","[]",6,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the EA Meta Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/61187fa6-4bb5-42ab-acb5-c3a68e109353","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
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"What will the balance + payouts be for the Long Term Future Fund at the end of 2020?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/aa037535-a09e-464e-bc64-90964df4cf9f","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
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"At the end of 2021, will the most cost-effective charity recommended by Givewell be a deworming charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/4f960f70-1058-420e-b7de-bc432888fa1e","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
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"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/02f00f76-d8d6-4f57-b033-ff849062538b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
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"At the end of 2022, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/6cbf55b8-42cd-4f27-b339-adc9dff43275","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",6,,2
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"At the end of 2021, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/52faee5b-2de3-433a-bd92-538b5696bcb8","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42500000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
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"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/7d8556b6-7fbb-4bbe-ba42-db8911babe3f","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
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"Will there be more new COVID-19 cases this year than new HIV infections?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/8f14e026-51a8-4fca-920f-d29b37f61763","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",8,,2
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"At the end of the outbreak, what will the ratio (deaths)/(confirmed cases) be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/d093d140-8c5a-4ffd-a4ad-ec0edcc7cb7d","Foretold","","[]",15,,2
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"Will the current outbreak result in a global disaster (>50 million deaths resulting from the pathogen within 1 year)?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/f70dd133-ebb8-4201-88a8-09f6b94eed78","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
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"At the end of the outbreak, how many confirmed cases?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/b533b5bf-723d-40af-b558-daf971097507","Foretold","","[]",27,,2
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"At the end of the outbreak, how many deaths?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/984cd816-3284-4906-91f5-3b1446e47463","Foretold","","[]",49.5,,2
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"When will the outbreak end?","https://www.foretold.io/c/c47c6bc8-2c9b-4a83-9583-d1ed80a40fa2/m/95268867-0601-4377-920c-6a26618e2a70","Foretold","","[]",25.5,,2
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"By mid-2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b9bfcc0b-cd82-4904-903d-566ff57ed3b4","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"By mid-2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/380a3ab8-8b05-42f6-80b9-4217b04fd930","Foretold","","[]",2,,2
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"By mid-2021, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b5914f95-593d-4217-b862-b2ab5d0d51f8","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
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"How well do these two questions capture something significant about algorithmic progress?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/74586dc1-fd77-4b49-bbcb-b40ae0db09f8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
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"By 2023, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/f8c595c5-dd7e-4bb6-9650-0de3625b50eb","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"By 2022, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/b93bc8f1-5798-43b5-a0f6-26c8f6f0c7c7","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"By 2021, what will be the smallest number of frames required for the Atari performance of a basic DQN?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/ef463b8f-50ef-4e5f-93de-fbe3abd53570","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"By mid-2023, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/98933e35-e4ed-4958-a36a-3d4154900bce","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
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"By mid-2022, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/c5b3dc97-4b67-46c5-93ac-2905113df000","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
|
|
"By mid-2021, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/2c6253e6-8425-475c-90ba-ff4ab82b5483","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
|
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"How many years from now (Sep 2019) will it take to Physically assemble any LEGO set given the pieces and instructions, using specialized robotics hardware?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/69bf7756-ddb7-4d5c-b5c2-a223cffffe7d","Foretold","","[]",4.5,,2
|
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"By mid-2020, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaflop/s-days), used in training by a published AI system?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/70033fc2-af6e-4200-8aae-6d970a3e57ea","Foretold","","[]",3.5,,2
|
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"By mid-2020, what will be the smallest number of years of gameplay required for OpenAI Five-level dota performance?","https://www.foretold.io/c/cf663021-f87f-4632-ad82-962d889a2d39/m/75e157b5-ffc1-4b1b-9eda-7997dac7e20b","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
|
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"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2021?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b1949fbe-ce22-46d9-83a1-a5c2c53cd826","Foretold","","[]",6.5,,2
|
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"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b73619d7-8e1e-41a6-9e9f-6cfe22a1dad1","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
|
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"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2023?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3b91112d-19e3-486b-8ecc-ba9a7a372c09","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
|
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"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a minority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2465e95a-abc4-45a2-8ab3-855ecf295ded","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
|
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"If Conservatives win the next election, will they form a majority government?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8289150f-cfec-4327-b981-5fc0d624eb65","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
|
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"How many seats will Labour win the in the next general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/16581899-ae00-44e9-9d17-602ca38c6878","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
|
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"Will Labour win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/4e3274f7-c1b0-4a70-80ae-c931c87dca8d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",7,,2
|
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"Will Conservatives win the next election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/ff1f3bd2-3939-4414-b1cb-817b92ed3786","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",9.5,,2
|
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"If Boris Johnson is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/cb081989-7005-4dea-8288-eeb54b5e8bd6","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",2,,2
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"If Sajid Javid is leader of the Conservatives in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f682e558-edaf-45e9-9e4e-df4529dd7aa0","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
|
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"What will be the rate of homelessness per 100,000 people in England in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a97b0fa0-1eeb-4bc2-8bec-00e557f5dd91","Foretold","","[]",5,,2
|
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"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2030?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2c2e2991-3720-4786-ae82-448e328f8800","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
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"Will Brexit be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/b4f040ed-8145-4e23-8118-c4e06fd90a11","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
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"If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/04a10cb2-d13f-4af7-8b70-12675dc25e9d","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",3.5,,2
|
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"When will the next UK general election be?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/3165d0d1-547c-4104-8eb7-3c7508298b8d","Foretold","","[]",4,,2
|
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"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom by 2025?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/a9bd15c4-95dd-49eb-8a3d-f546209bd444","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",1,,2
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"If Keir Starmer is leader of Labour in the election after the 2019 UK general election, will they win that general election?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/e06b7c2f-a385-4c3c-9fa9-00787ac6aed3","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",11.5,,2
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"Will there be a second Brexit referendum announced before 2022?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/2461fab4-c594-49fd-9b2a-acdfc52356ba","Foretold","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",5,,2
|
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"What will be the tuition fee cap for UK students in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fbc91180-f338-449d-a795-234ac42854ec","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
|
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"If there is a soft Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/f3d44e2b-4d2a-47bd-acbd-61cab5e6a126","Foretold","","[]",1,,2
|
|
"If there is a hard Brexit, what will be the average yearly GDP growth of the UK in the following five years?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/8221741f-ac27-4651-bf2c-7a887fc82313","Foretold","","[]",3,,2
|
|
"What will be mean UK broadband download speeds in 2024?","https://www.foretold.io/c/47ff5c49-9c20-4f3d-bd57-1897c35cd42d/m/fb8780cd-e2b3-4435-bf50-c46fed1db5a8","Foretold","","[]",3,,2 |