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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","5","★☆☆☆☆"
","21","★☆☆☆☆"
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","5","★☆☆☆☆"
"What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.
","17","★☆☆☆☆"
","19","★☆☆☆☆"
"Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","81","★☆☆☆☆"
"Conditional on President Trump being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","75","★☆☆☆☆"
","89","★☆☆☆☆"
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","71","★☆☆☆☆"
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","84","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","27","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","70","★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","36","★☆☆☆☆"
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","74","★☆☆☆☆"
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","90","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","33","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","99","★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","40","★☆☆☆☆"
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"46%","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","87","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","72","★☆☆☆☆"
","77","★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","51","★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"64%","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","169","★★☆☆☆"
","52","★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"61%","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","203","★★☆☆☆"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","66","★☆☆☆☆"
","68","★☆☆☆☆"
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","155","★★☆☆☆"
","163","★★☆☆☆"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","66","★☆☆☆☆"
","69","★☆☆☆☆"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","72","★☆☆☆☆"
","75","★☆☆☆☆"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","59","★☆☆☆☆"
","61","★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","157","★★☆☆☆"
","163","★★☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","90","★☆☆☆☆"
","93","★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"70%","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","141","★★☆☆☆"
","145","★★☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","215","★★☆☆☆"
","228","★★☆☆☆"
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","91","★☆☆☆☆"
","97","★☆☆☆☆"
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","86","★☆☆☆☆"
","91","★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","175","★★☆☆☆"
","178","★★☆☆☆"
"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" A grant is ""surveillance related"" if its abstract includes the term ""surveillance,"" ""facial recognition,"" or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
","88","★☆☆☆☆"
","92","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","90","★☆☆☆☆"
","91","★☆☆☆☆"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","120","★★☆☆☆"
","123","★★☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 5 21 ★☆☆☆☆
3 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 5 19 ★☆☆☆☆
4 What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here. Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 17 89 ★☆☆☆☆
5 Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 81 74 ★☆☆☆☆
Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 75 ★☆☆☆☆
How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 71 ★☆☆☆☆
6 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 84 90 ★☆☆☆☆
7 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 27 33 ★☆☆☆☆
How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** 70 ★☆☆☆☆
What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 36 ★☆☆☆☆
8 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell true false none Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** 74 99 ★☆☆☆☆
How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry 72 ★☆☆☆☆
What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 51 ★☆☆☆☆
Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell true 64% Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** 169 ★★☆☆☆
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 66 ★☆☆☆☆
When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell false none Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** 155 ★★☆☆☆
What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 66 ★☆☆☆☆
What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 72 ★☆☆☆☆
What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 59 ★☆☆☆☆
What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 157 ★★☆☆☆
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 90 ★☆☆☆☆
9 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell true false 70% none Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 141 40 ★★☆☆☆ ★☆☆☆☆
10 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell true 46% Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** 87 ★☆☆☆☆
11 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry 77 ★☆☆☆☆
12 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 52 ★☆☆☆☆
13 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell true 61% Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** 203 ★★☆☆☆
14 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 68 ★☆☆☆☆
15 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell false none Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** 163 ★★☆☆☆
16 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 69 ★☆☆☆☆
17 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 75 ★☆☆☆☆
18 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 61 ★☆☆☆☆
19 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 163 ★★☆☆☆
20 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 215 93 ★★☆☆☆ ★☆☆☆☆
21 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell false true none 70% Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 91 145 ★☆☆☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
22 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 86 228 ★☆☆☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
23 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 CSET-foretell false none Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 175 97 ★★☆☆☆ ★☆☆☆☆
24 How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 88 91 ★☆☆☆☆
25 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field 90 178 ★☆☆☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
26 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments 120 92 ★★☆☆☆ ★☆☆☆☆
27 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell false none Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 91 ★☆☆☆☆
28 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 CSET-foretell false none Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 123 ★★☆☆☆
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data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -5,8 +5,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "5",
"# Forecasters": "5",
"# Forecasts": "21",
"# Forecasters": "21",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -16,52 +16,30 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "5",
"# Forecasters": "5",
"# Forecasts": "19",
"# Forecasters": "19",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? ",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "17",
"# Forecasters": "15",
"Description": "Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "81",
"# Forecasters": "75",
"# Forecasts": "89",
"# Forecasters": "81",
"Description": "Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "75",
"# Forecasters": "70",
"Description": "Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "71",
"# Forecasters": "66",
"# Forecasts": "74",
"# Forecasters": "69",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -71,8 +49,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "84",
"# Forecasters": "78",
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "84",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -82,8 +60,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "27",
"# Forecasters": "27",
"# Forecasts": "33",
"# Forecasters": "31",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -93,8 +71,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "70",
"# Forecasters": "64",
"# Forecasts": "99",
"# Forecasters": "89",
"Description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -104,8 +82,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "36",
"# Forecasters": "34",
"# Forecasts": "40",
"# Forecasters": "38",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\"  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -114,9 +92,9 @@
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "",
"# Forecasts": "74",
"# Forecasters": "55",
"Percentage": "46%",
"# Forecasts": "87",
"# Forecasters": "61",
"Description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -126,8 +104,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "72",
"# Forecasters": "66",
"# Forecasts": "77",
"# Forecasters": "71",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) \"military end-use or end-user controls,\" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -137,8 +115,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "51",
"# Forecasters": "48",
"# Forecasts": "52",
"# Forecasters": "49",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -147,9 +125,9 @@
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "64%",
"# Forecasts": "169",
"# Forecasters": "127",
"Percentage": "61%",
"# Forecasts": "203",
"# Forecasters": "152",
"Description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -159,8 +137,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "66",
"# Forecasters": "56",
"# Forecasts": "68",
"# Forecasters": "57",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -170,8 +148,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "155",
"# Forecasters": "111",
"# Forecasts": "163",
"# Forecasters": "114",
"Description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -181,8 +159,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "66",
"# Forecasters": "56",
"# Forecasts": "69",
"# Forecasters": "57",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -192,8 +170,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "72",
"# Forecasters": "57",
"# Forecasts": "75",
"# Forecasters": "59",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -203,7 +181,7 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "59",
"# Forecasts": "61",
"# Forecasters": "45",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
@ -214,8 +192,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "157",
"# Forecasters": "136",
"# Forecasts": "163",
"# Forecasters": "141",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -225,8 +203,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "85",
"# Forecasts": "93",
"# Forecasters": "87",
"Description": "Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -236,8 +214,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": "141",
"# Forecasters": "109",
"# Forecasts": "145",
"# Forecasters": "113",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -247,8 +225,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "215",
"# Forecasters": "169",
"# Forecasts": "228",
"# Forecasters": "177",
"Description": "Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -258,8 +236,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "91",
"# Forecasters": "74",
"# Forecasts": "97",
"# Forecasters": "79",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -269,8 +247,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "86",
"# Forecasters": "65",
"# Forecasts": "91",
"# Forecasters": "67",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -280,8 +258,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "175",
"# Forecasters": "129",
"# Forecasts": "178",
"# Forecasters": "132",
"Description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -291,8 +269,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "88",
"# Forecasters": "69",
"# Forecasts": "92",
"# Forecasters": "72",
"Description": "Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" A grant is \"surveillance related\" if its abstract includes the term \"surveillance,\" \"facial recognition,\" or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments \n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -302,8 +280,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "57",
"# Forecasts": "91",
"# Forecasters": "58",
"Description": "Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -313,8 +291,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "120",
"# Forecasters": "75",
"# Forecasts": "123",
"# Forecasters": "77",
"Description": "Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The\"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
}

4705
data/elicit-output.txt
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668
data/elicit-questions.csv
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@ -1,341 +1,349 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.39%",,337,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.03%",,230,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",,158,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",,137,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",,113,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.37%",,211,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",,115,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",,119,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",,110,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",,107,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",,100,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",,106,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",,95,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",,112,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.18%",,158,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",,84,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",,82,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",,84,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",,86,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",,87,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",,80,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",,79,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.65%",,78,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",,76,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",,85,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",,74,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",,66,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",,75,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",,83,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",,41,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",,37,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",,31,"★☆☆☆☆"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",,40,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",,31,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",,28,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",,38,"★☆☆☆☆"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.37%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.56%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",,28,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.27%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.46%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.19%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.84%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.48%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",,39,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.83%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.13%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"80.89%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.05%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.40%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.14%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.38%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",,50,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",,40,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.27%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.55%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.12%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56%",,342,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82%",,230,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37%",,159,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53%",,138,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76%",,114,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63%",,213,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62%",,116,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51%",,119,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,110,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42%",,108,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,100,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61%",,106,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,96,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,112,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58%",,158,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,84,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25%",,82,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25%",,84,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,87,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78%",,86,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82%",,80,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53%",,78,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36%",,79,"★☆☆☆☆"
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46%",,76,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,85,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46%",,74,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32%",,66,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25%",,75,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90%",,83,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60%",,41,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55%",,37,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,56,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39%",,31,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22%",,55,"★☆☆☆☆"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83%",,40,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,31,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,28,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,38,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40%",,42,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24%",,28,"★☆☆☆☆"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58%",,39,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,47,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81%",,27,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40%",,35,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64%",,50,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65%",,40,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35%",,23,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84%",,21,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"94%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",,20,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.46%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",,36,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.79%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87%",,17,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,18,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,32,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,36,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"79%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,29,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49%",,33,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,19,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,34,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23%",,24,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,25,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,22,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55%",,26,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33%",,15,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"71%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"79%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34%",,16,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",,14,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11%",,13,"★☆☆☆☆"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3%",,10,"★☆☆☆☆"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57%",,11,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16%",,12,"★☆☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.39% 56% 337 342 ★☆☆☆☆
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.03% 82% 230 ★☆☆☆☆
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.85% 37% 158 159 ★☆☆☆☆
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.70% 53% 137 138 ★☆☆☆☆
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.52% 76% 113 114 ★☆☆☆☆
7 The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.37% 63% 211 213 ★☆☆☆☆
8 Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.63% 62% 115 116 ★☆☆☆☆
9 How vivid is your visual imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 50.68% 51% 119 ★☆☆☆☆
10 Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.50% 34% 110 ★☆☆☆☆
11 Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.70% 42% 107 108 ★☆☆☆☆
12 Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.79% 12% 100 ★☆☆☆☆
13 How vivid is your sound imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.17% 61% 106 ★☆☆☆☆
14 Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.63% 29% 95 96 ★☆☆☆☆
15 Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.12% 43% 112 ★☆☆☆☆
16 There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.18% 58% 158 ★☆☆☆☆
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.73% 26% 84 ★☆☆☆☆
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.41% 25% 82 ★☆☆☆☆
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.38% 25% 84 ★☆☆☆☆
20 How frequently do you think in words? Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.13% 20% 86 87 ★☆☆☆☆
21 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.76% 78% 87 86 ★☆☆☆☆
22 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.28% 82% 80 ★☆☆☆☆
23 How vivid is your touch imagination? How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.13% 53% 79 78 ★☆☆☆☆
24 How good is your memory? How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.65% 36% 78 79 ★☆☆☆☆
25 How much control do you have over your mind? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.59% 46% 76 ★☆☆☆☆
26 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.76% 43% 85 ★☆☆☆☆
27 Trump will win a second term https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.20% 46% 74 ★☆☆☆☆
28 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.56% 32% 66 ★☆☆☆☆
29 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.51% 25% 75 ★☆☆☆☆
30 Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.52% 90% 83 ★☆☆☆☆
31 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.22% 60% 41 ★☆☆☆☆
32 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.49% 55% 37 ★☆☆☆☆
33 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.71% 69% 42 ★☆☆☆☆
34 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.12% 61% 42 ★☆☆☆☆
35 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 5% 34 56 ★☆☆☆☆
36 The Pope will be assassinated. Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.03% 1% 32 34 ★☆☆☆☆
37 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.38% 3% 47 32 ★☆☆☆☆
38 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.97% 47% 31 47 ★☆☆☆☆
39 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.00% 3% 40 33 ★☆☆☆☆
40 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.91% 39% 34 31 ★☆☆☆☆
41 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.91% 22% 33 55 ★☆☆☆☆
42 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.94% 83% 47 40 ★☆☆☆☆
43 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.00% 37% 34 ★☆☆☆☆
44 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.13% 9% 32 31 ★☆☆☆☆
45 No military draft in the United States before 2020. Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 90.27% 55% 33 47 ★☆☆☆☆
46 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.81% 47% 31 34 ★☆☆☆☆
47 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.68% 82% 28 32 ★☆☆☆☆
48 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.23% 90% 26 33 ★☆☆☆☆
49 Trump wins Nobel Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.55% 9% 38 28 ★☆☆☆☆
50 California will secede from the United States before 2021 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.68% 11% 34 38 ★☆☆☆☆
51 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.24% 40% 42 ★☆☆☆☆
52 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.88% 0% 26 ★☆☆☆☆
53 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.84% 1% 32 34 ★☆☆☆☆
54 ...be an environmental disaster. Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.37% 2% 27 26 ★☆☆☆☆
55 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.56% 27% 34 33 ★☆☆☆☆
56 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.39% 26% 28 27 ★☆☆☆☆
57 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.69% 47% 26 32 ★☆☆☆☆
58 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.46% 24% 26 28 ★☆☆☆☆
59 The Singularity will occur by 2050. For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.12% 59% 25 34 ★☆☆☆☆
60 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.27% 7% 26 ★☆☆☆☆
61 Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.91% 10% 33 26 ★☆☆☆☆
62 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.11% 35% 27 25 ★☆☆☆☆
63 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.67% 7% 24 ★☆☆☆☆
64 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.35% 62% 23 26 ★☆☆☆☆
65 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.88% 69% 25 ★☆☆☆☆
66 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 99.41% 19% 22 23 ★☆☆☆☆
67 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.46% 34% 24 33 ★☆☆☆☆
68 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.19% 84% 21 27 ★☆☆☆☆
69 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.84% 20% 32 29 ★☆☆☆☆
70 Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.48% 58% 29 39 ★☆☆☆☆
71 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.36% 37% 25 24 ★☆☆☆☆
72 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.15% 61% 39 32 ★☆☆☆☆
73 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.68% 70% 22 21 ★☆☆☆☆
74 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.83% 99% 35 22 ★☆☆☆☆
75 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.13% 26% 47 25 ★☆☆☆☆
76 Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.64% 12% 22 ★☆☆☆☆
77 Google will survive for 15 more years Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 88.38% 15% 21 ★☆☆☆☆
78 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.33% 88% 21 ★☆☆☆☆
79 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.45% 34% 22 47 ★☆☆☆☆
80 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.74% 28% 23 35 ★☆☆☆☆
81 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.94% 5% 35 23 ★☆☆☆☆
82 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 80.89% 22% 27 22 ★☆☆☆☆
83 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.69% 7% 35 22 ★☆☆☆☆
84 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.05% 48% 20 ★☆☆☆☆
85 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.40% 75% 20 ★☆☆☆☆
86 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.14% 17% 22 20 ★☆☆☆☆
87 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.38% 81% 21 27 ★☆☆☆☆
88 United States will invade Australia and take over Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 83% 21 22 ★☆☆☆☆
89 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.95% 36% 20 21 ★☆☆☆☆
90 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.05% 72% 21 23 ★☆☆☆☆
91 No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.75% 87% 24 ★☆☆☆☆
92 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.20% 57% 20 35 ★☆☆☆☆
93 The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 72.43% 10% 23 21 ★☆☆☆☆
94 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.21% 7% 19 20 ★☆☆☆☆
95 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 74.85% 54% 20 ★☆☆☆☆
96 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.34% 40% 50 35 ★☆☆☆☆
97 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.05% 2% 21 19 ★☆☆☆☆
98 Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.80% 47% 40 21 ★☆☆☆☆
99 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.32% 64% 22 50 ★☆☆☆☆
100 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.28% 3% 18 22 ★☆☆☆☆
101 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 67.55% 12% 22 21 ★☆☆☆☆
102 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 65% 26 40 ★☆☆☆☆
103 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.78% 40% 18 26 ★☆☆☆☆
104 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.95% 68% 20 22 ★☆☆☆☆
105 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.79% 64% 19 18 ★☆☆☆☆
106 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.33% 52% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
107 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.72% 2% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
108 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.17% 1% 23 18 ★☆☆☆☆
109 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.27% 29% 26 23 ★☆☆☆☆
110 Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.89% 27% 19 ★☆☆☆☆
111 aliens invade earth in 2023 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.94% 33% 18 26 ★☆☆☆☆
112 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.95% 47% 21 23 ★☆☆☆☆
113 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.80% 69% 25 18 ★☆☆☆☆
114 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.39% 22% 18 21 ★☆☆☆☆
115 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.62% 8% 21 18 ★☆☆☆☆
116 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 14% 23 21 ★☆☆☆☆
117 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.12% 35% 17 23 ★☆☆☆☆
118 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.13% 13% 16 19 ★☆☆☆☆
119 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.89% 2% 18 25 ★☆☆☆☆
120 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 95.32% 84% 19 21 ★☆☆☆☆
121 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.53% 31% 19 20 ★☆☆☆☆
122 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.71% 58% 17 18 ★☆☆☆☆
123 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.11% 29% 19 25 ★☆☆☆☆
124 US presidents term limits abolished Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.24% 43% 17 18 ★☆☆☆☆
125 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.67% 95% 18 19 ★☆☆☆☆
126 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.78% 35% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
127 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.90% 36% 20 19 ★☆☆☆☆
128 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.48% 2% 25 17 ★☆☆☆☆
129 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.00% 4% 20 16 ★☆☆☆☆
130 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 59.36% 78% 25 17 ★☆☆☆☆
131 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.90% 8% 29 17 ★☆☆☆☆
132 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 76.55% 5% 20 ★☆☆☆☆
133 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.47% 19% 17 19 ★☆☆☆☆
134 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.44% 93% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
135 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.94% 59% 17 25 ★☆☆☆☆
136 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.12% 57% 17 29 ★☆☆☆☆
137 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.47% 43% 19 ★☆☆☆☆
138 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.71% 77% 17 20 ★☆☆☆☆
139 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.81% 74% 16 17 ★☆☆☆☆
140 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.18% 28% 17 20 ★☆☆☆☆
141 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.31% 4% 16 17 ★☆☆☆☆
142 C still widely in use in the 2020s The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.53% 78% 15 17 ★☆☆☆☆
143 Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 92.69% 29% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
144 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.47% 66% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
145 The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using "more dakka", for some reasonable version of "more dakka" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20"more%20dakka",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20"more%20dakka"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
146 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
147 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14% 25 ★☆☆☆☆
148 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
149 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
150 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
151 C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 94% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
152 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
153 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
154 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
155 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
156 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
157 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
158 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
159 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30% 19 ★☆☆☆☆
160 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
161 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
162 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
163 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10% 20 ★☆☆☆☆
164 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
165 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.19% 11% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
166 Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 87.18% 87% 17 ★☆☆☆☆
167 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.39% 7% 18 ★☆☆☆☆
168 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.86% 28% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
169 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.20% 6% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
170 In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 9% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
171 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.20% 38% 15 13 ★☆☆☆☆
172 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.26% 11% 19 16 ★☆☆☆☆
173 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.55% 5% 20 13 ★☆☆☆☆
174 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.00% 89% 15 13 ★☆☆☆☆
175 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.94% 44% 17 26 ★☆☆☆☆
176 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.79% 85% 14 16 ★☆☆☆☆
177 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.82% 15% 17 13 ★☆☆☆☆
178 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.39% 13% 18 19 ★☆☆☆☆
179 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.00% 28% 15 14 ★☆☆☆☆
180 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53.00% 32% 14 16 ★☆☆☆☆
181 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.21% 4% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
182 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.00% 9% 18 15 ★☆☆☆☆
183 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.73% 63% 15 14 ★☆☆☆☆
184 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.92% 74% 13 19 ★☆☆☆☆
185 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.75% 85% 16 18 ★☆☆☆☆
186 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.08% 41% 13 19 ★☆☆☆☆
187 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.08% 29% 13 18 ★☆☆☆☆
188 ETI is AGI If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.61% 51% 18 14 ★☆☆☆☆
189 By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.31% 15% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
190 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.33% 44% 15 13 ★☆☆☆☆
191 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.33% 27% 18 16 ★☆☆☆☆
192 Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 85.31% 19% 16 13 ★☆☆☆☆
193 Trump dies of COVID-19 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.63% 5% 32 16 ★☆☆☆☆
194 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 11% 15 13 ★☆☆☆☆
195 Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.79% 7% 14 32 ★☆☆☆☆
196 Humanity still a thing in 2036 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.00% 34% 13 16 ★☆☆☆☆
197 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.36% 40% 14 15 ★☆☆☆☆
198 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.89% 8% 19 36 ★☆☆☆☆
199 Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.71% 30% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
200 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.46% 5% 26 15 ★☆☆☆☆
201 We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.84% 63% 19 15 ★☆☆☆☆
202 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.15% 3% 13 15 ★☆☆☆☆
203 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.37% 37% 19 13 ★☆☆☆☆
204 In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.69% 79% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
205 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.50% 30% 16 15 ★☆☆☆☆
206 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.54% 4% 13 12 ★☆☆☆☆
207 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 32.06% 87% 16 12 ★☆☆☆☆
208 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.75% 16% 16 14 ★☆☆☆☆
209 10 million Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.42% 18% 36 12 ★☆☆☆☆
210 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.64% 8% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
211 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.69% 47% 16 13 ★☆☆☆☆
212 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.62% 14% 13 12 ★☆☆☆☆
213 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 35% 15 12 ★☆☆☆☆
214 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.54% 14% 13 15 ★☆☆☆☆
215 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.93% 51% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
216 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.15% 1% 26 29 ★☆☆☆☆
217 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.31% 49% 13 33 ★☆☆☆☆
218 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.25% 5% 12 14 ★☆☆☆☆
219 Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 49.24% 43% 33 19 ★☆☆☆☆
220 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.40% 52% 15 ★☆☆☆☆
221 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.92% 63% 13 26 ★☆☆☆☆
222 If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.00% 24% 15 12 ★☆☆☆☆
223 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.69% 8% 13 14 ★☆☆☆☆
224 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.83% 61% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
225 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.33% 18% 15 14 ★☆☆☆☆
226 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.50% 70% 14 15 ★☆☆☆☆
227 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.33% 46% 15 14 ★☆☆☆☆
228 There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.00% 1% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
229 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.47% 20% 15 16 ★☆☆☆☆
230 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.33% 63% 12 13 ★☆☆☆☆
231 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.07% 70% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
232 North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.25% 67% 16 13 ★☆☆☆☆
233 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.64% 34% 14 12 ★☆☆☆☆
234 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.08% 1% 13 15 ★☆☆☆☆
235 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.64% 46% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
236 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.58% 45% 12 13 ★☆☆☆☆
237 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.71% 2% 14 34 ★☆☆☆☆
238 If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.11% 53% 19 13 ★☆☆☆☆
239 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.60% 14% 15 16 ★☆☆☆☆
240 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.83% 23% 12 24 ★☆☆☆☆
241 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.83% 29% 12 25 ★☆☆☆☆
242 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.07% 46% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
243 100 million By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 31% 29 13 ★☆☆☆☆
244 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.17% 9% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
245 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.69% 41% 13 22 ★☆☆☆☆
246 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.73% 55% 15 26 ★☆☆☆☆
247 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 16% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
248 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.82% 33% 11 15 ★☆☆☆☆
249 "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.73% 11% 11 14 ★☆☆☆☆
250 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.54% 26% 13 11 ★☆☆☆☆
251 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.42% 21% 12 11 ★☆☆☆☆
252 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 67.79% 10% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
253 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.00% 93% 11 12 ★☆☆☆☆
254 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.17% 24% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
255 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.09% 9% 11 13 ★☆☆☆☆
256 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.69% 28% 13 14 ★☆☆☆☆
257 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.64% 29% 11 12 ★☆☆☆☆
258 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.00% 57% 12 14 ★☆☆☆☆
259 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.00% 5% 13 12 ★☆☆☆☆
260 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.18% 68% 11 14 ★☆☆☆☆
261 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.57% 8% 14 11 ★☆☆☆☆
262 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 65.93% 32% 14 11 ★☆☆☆☆
263 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.67% 66% 12 14 ★☆☆☆☆
264 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.64% 69% 11 12 ★☆☆☆☆
265 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.00% 56% 11 14 ★☆☆☆☆
266 Trump wins the 2020 election. SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.54% 14% 13 12 ★☆☆☆☆
267 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.29% 2% 14 12 ★☆☆☆☆
268 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.27% 43% 11 13 ★☆☆☆☆
269 Trump will run for president in 2024 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.38% 41% 13 11 ★☆☆☆☆
270 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.38% 10% 24 11 ★☆☆☆☆
271 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.09% 57% 11 13 ★☆☆☆☆
272 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.43% 4% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
273 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.91% 10% 11 14 ★☆☆☆☆
274 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 39% 14 11 ★☆☆☆☆
275 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.42% 1% 12 11 ★☆☆☆☆
276 China will land a man on Mars by 2050. "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.08% 75% 13 12 ★☆☆☆☆
277 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.33% 20% 12 13 ★☆☆☆☆
278 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.08% 4% 12 13 ★☆☆☆☆
279 Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.20% 44% 15 12 ★☆☆☆☆
280 The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.00% 65% 26 11 ★☆☆☆☆
281 The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.82% 33% 22 11 ★☆☆☆☆
282 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.86% 42% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
283 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.88% 48% 25 13 ★☆☆☆☆
284 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.08% 28% 12 11 ★☆☆☆☆
285 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.92% 21% 13 11 ★☆☆☆☆
286 50 million "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.65% 56% 34 14 ★☆☆☆☆
287 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.21% 25% 14 12 ★☆☆☆☆
288 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.67% 78% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
289 'President Mike Pence' Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.06% 77% 16 10 ★☆☆☆☆
290 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.79% 71% 14 12 ★☆☆☆☆
Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.27% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.38% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.31% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.92% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.25% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.67% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.75% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.83% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.54% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.77% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.69% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.36% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.73% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.92% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.70% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.38% 16 ★☆☆☆☆
Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.64% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.30% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.10% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.20% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
291 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.92% 16% 12 10 ★☆☆☆☆
292 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.00% 11% 10 12 ★☆☆☆☆
293 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.14% 9% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
294 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.79% 18% 14 13 ★☆☆☆☆
295 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.00% 79% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
296 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.80% 48% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
297 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.70% 30% 10 11 ★☆☆☆☆
298 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.17% 13% 12 14 ★☆☆☆☆
299 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.50% 34% 10 16 ★☆☆☆☆
300 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.09% 47% 11 10 ★☆☆☆☆
301 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.90% 28% 10 14 ★☆☆☆☆
302 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.60% 10% 10 14 ★☆☆☆☆
303 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.09% 22% 11 10 ★☆☆☆☆
304 More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.38% 4% 13 10 ★☆☆☆☆
305 Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.50% 20% 12 10 ★☆☆☆☆
306 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.42% 56% 12 10 ★☆☆☆☆
307 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.40% 1% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
308 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.30% 1% 10 11 ★☆☆☆☆
309 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 22.08% 11% 12 10 ★☆☆☆☆
310 WWIII starts before 2030. Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.86% 35% 14 11 ★☆☆☆☆
311 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 16% 13 10 ★☆☆☆☆
312 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.08% 22% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
313 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.80% 75% 10 11 ★☆☆☆☆
314 “China will break apart by 2030” HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.60% 7% 10 11 ★☆☆☆☆
315 homosexuality criminalized in the US The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.50% 6% 10 11 ★☆☆☆☆
316 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.09% 33% 11 13 ★☆☆☆☆
317 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.09% 41% 11 10 ★☆☆☆☆
318 Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.36% 26% 11 10 ★☆☆☆☆
319 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
320 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
321 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
322 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9% 14 ★☆☆☆☆
323 Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
324 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
325 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
326 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
327 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
328 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
329 EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
330 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12% 11 ★☆☆☆☆
331 More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
332 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
333 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
334 “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
335 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11% 13 ★☆☆☆☆
336 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7% 12 ★☆☆☆☆
337 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3% 10 ★☆☆☆☆
338 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.46% 57% 13 11 ★☆☆☆☆
339 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.90% 16% 10 12 ★☆☆☆☆
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". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13 ★☆☆☆☆

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https://www.givewell.org/about/impact/one-for-the-world/july-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/gui2de/january-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/november-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/charity-science/charity-science-health/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/results-for-development/may-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/november-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/new-incentives/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/december-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/charities/evidence-action/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/evidence-action/march-2016-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/international/charities/ipa/may-2016-grant#Risks_of_the_grant_and_internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/december-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid-phase-2#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/uc-berkeley/april-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/beta-incubator-2018#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-embedded-givewell-team-2018#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2019-evidence-action#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-new-incentives-august-2019#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/march-2018-evidence-action-beta-iron-folic-acid#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/may-2018-forecasting-research-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/results-for-development/january-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/charity-science-exit-grant-july-2019#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovations-for-poverty-action-masks-rct-july-2020#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/cega-uc-berkeley/july-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/july-2018-evidence-action-beta-incubator#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/centre-pesticide-suicide-prevention/august-2017-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/innovation-in-government-initiative/december-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/IDinsight-beneficiary-preferences-march-2019#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/june-2018-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/new-incentives/april-2020-grant#Internal_forecasts
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/miscellaneous/harvard-university-solar-geoengineering-research-program
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/uc-berkeley-center-human-compatible-ai
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/farm-animal-welfare/CIWF-USA-general-support
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform/impact-justice-restorative-justice-project
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/80000-hours-general-support
https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/university-pennsylvania-philip-tetlock-forecasting

44
data/goodjudgment-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,30 +1,30 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 5 February 2021
France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible [run-off](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run [again](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html), but he has not yet committed to doing so.
15 February 2021 - It is early days and a lot can happen before the election. To gauge their initial forecasts, Superforecasters are looking at opinion polls and possible wild cards. One question is whether incumbent Emmanuel Macron will run again. Assuming he does, Superforecasters give his Republic Forward a 69% probability of winning, with the National Rally a runner-up at 20% probability of winning. ""Macron is unpopular, yet less so than the alternative (especially in the French two-round system),"" one Superforecaster writes. See examples of their reasoning in the commentary below.
",,"★★★★☆"
"In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 29 January 2021
The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a [snap](https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now) general election could be [called](http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf) before then. The question will resolve on the total number of [seats](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/) won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined.
8 February 2021 - Italy's Prime Minister Conte, who has led a coalition government throughout the coronavirus emergency, resigned on 26 January. The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, but a snap general election could be called before then. Superforecasters are basing their initial predictions on their examination of Italy's electoral system and current polls, with an eye on developments that could affect the composition of Italian parliament.
",,"★★★★☆"
"Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 10 April 2020
Since taking office in 2019, there have been [calls](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun) to [impeach](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html) President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the [COVID-19](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333) pandemic.
2 February 2021 - Despite 48 impeachment requests filed against Jair Bolsonaro in the lower house of Brazil's legislative assembly, including for corruption scandals involving his immediate family and his policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, Speaker Rodrigo Maia, replaced 1 February by Arthur Lira, had shown [no intention](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/brazils-house-speaker-says-not-the-right-time-to-handle-impeachment-requests-against-bolsonaro-idUSKCN24P1MK) to start an impeachment process at the moment. The Brazilian president's popularity remains strong according to recent polls, and there are no legislative elections scheduled until October 2022 that could diminish Bolsonaro's support. Superforecasters see a 5% chance that Bolsonaro may cease to be Brazil's president before 1 April 2022. See top SuperforecasterÃ<72><C383> comments below.
",,"★★★★☆"
"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 22 January 2021
The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.
When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87.
But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run.
Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.
",,"★★★★☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda.
",,"★★★★☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., ""Big Tech"" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.
",,"★★★★☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a ""public option"" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a "" [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) "" for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A ""public option"" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a ""public option"" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a ""public option"" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.
",,"★★★★☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch.
",,"★★★★☆"
"What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 1 May 2020
Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)'s website (select ""view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions).
27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.
",,"★★★★☆"
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 26 June 2020
The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a [topic](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) of [intense](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) [speculation](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021.
20 January 2021 - ""It's all about testing."" This is what the resolution of this question depends on, according to Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters. Increased testing, enabled by availability of cheaper rapid tests, will lead to a higher number of reported cases.
",,"★★★★☆"
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 15 December 2020
This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic).
Dozens of [companies](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html)'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization). ""[Compassionate use](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access)"" and ""[emergency use](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).
@ -36,25 +36,25 @@ The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout i
",,"★★★★☆"
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 7 December 2020
The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech). The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976). For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.
6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E (""Not before 1 September 2021"") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.
12 February 2021 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (55%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated by May 2021. Two caveats are supply and willingness of people to be vaccinated. The next answer bin, ""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021,"" has a 44% likelihood due to potential issues with logistics, especially when it is time to start offering second doses.
",,"★★★★☆"
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
In its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/).
04 January 2021 - Bin B (""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.
11 February 2021 - The range ""between 23% and 27%, inclusive"" remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021. Superforecasters assign a 26% probability that the percentage of S&amp;P 500 board seats held by racial minorities in 2021 will be less than 23% and a 70% probability that it will be between 23% and 27%, inclusive. They see a 4% chance that it could be more than 27% this year.
",,"★★★★☆"
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
The International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report.
04 January 2021 - Bin D (""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.
11 February 2021 - A growth of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters' top probability for the resolution of this question (61% probability). However, slow vaccine rollout, especially in Europe, and lockdowns at the start of 2021 are some of the factors the Superforecasters considered in assigning a 31% probability that the world's GDP may fall within 4% below the 2019 level.
",,"★★★★☆"
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
Interest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.
04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B (""Higher by between 0% and 100%"") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C (""Higher by more than 100%"") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.
8 February 2021 - Morningstar reported global ESG funds increased by over 100% in 2020 relative to 2019, significantly outperforming their traditional fund peers. Superforecasters believe this strong performance should only serve to draw more investors and the value of sustainable funds is on track to increase further in 2021. The question is by how much. Superforecasters are split on whether the increase will be up to 100% higher relative to the 2020 value or will more than double relative to 2020. They currently see 1% chance that the value will remain the same or be lower than the previous year.
",,"★★★★☆"
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
Dozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).
8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?
12 February 2021 - Superforecasters increasingly see the US on track to distribute enough doses for 200 million people before July 2021 (77% probability). Johnson &amp; Johnson submitted for emergency use approval for their vaccine and, if successful, expects to deliver the first doses in March. Pfizer and Moderna have agreed to expedite the delivery of 100 million doses each by a month, moving them up to May. Superforecasters cite these and other factors in their reasoning, including production estimates, US Chief Medical Advisor Fauci's comments, and President Biden's plan to ramp up vaccine administration capabilities. They assign 20% probability that the distribution may slip into the third quarter.
",,"★★★★☆"
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.
04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B (""More than 10% but less than 20%"") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.
12 February 2021 - The UK's relative success with its ongoing vaccination program may be good news for businesses, but Superforecasters note the national lockdown is expected to continue at least until the second week of March. A substantial proportion of the working population will not have been vaccinated before summer. They also note certain advantages to working from home (WFH), from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute. On the other hand, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business. Superforecasters see the highest probability (77%) that the percentage of working adults who work from home exclusively as of 1 July 2021 will be more than 10% but less than 20%.
",,"★★★★☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 5 February 2021 France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible [run-off](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run [again](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html), but he has not yet committed to doing so. 15 February 2021 - It is early days and a lot can happen before the election. To gauge their initial forecasts, Superforecasters are looking at opinion polls and possible wild cards. One question is whether incumbent Emmanuel Macron will run again. Assuming he does, Superforecasters give his Republic Forward a 69% probability of winning, with the National Rally a runner-up at 20% probability of winning. "Macron is unpopular, yet less so than the alternative (especially in the French two-round system)," one Superforecaster writes. See examples of their reasoning in the commentary below. ★★★★☆
3 In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 29 January 2021 The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a [snap](https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now) general election could be [called](http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf) before then. The question will resolve on the total number of [seats](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/) won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined. 8 February 2021 - Italy's Prime Minister Conte, who has led a coalition government throughout the coronavirus emergency, resigned on 26 January. The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, but a snap general election could be called before then. Superforecasters are basing their initial predictions on their examination of Italy's electoral system and current polls, with an eye on developments that could affect the composition of Italian parliament. ★★★★☆
4 Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 10 April 2020 Since taking office in 2019, there have been [calls](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun) to [impeach](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html) President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the [COVID-19](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333) pandemic. 2 February 2021 - Despite 48 impeachment requests filed against Jair Bolsonaro in the lower house of Brazil's legislative assembly, including for corruption scandals involving his immediate family and his policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, Speaker Rodrigo Maia, replaced 1 February by Arthur Lira, had shown [no intention](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/brazils-house-speaker-says-not-the-right-time-to-handle-impeachment-requests-against-bolsonaro-idUSKCN24P1MK) to start an impeachment process at the moment. The Brazilian president's popularity remains strong according to recent polls, and there are no legislative elections scheduled until October 2022 that could diminish Bolsonaro's support. Superforecasters see a 5% chance that Bolsonaro may cease to be Brazil's president before 1 April 2022. See top SuperforecasterÃ�� comments below. ★★★★☆
5 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025. ★★★★☆
6 What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)'s website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions). 27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019. ★★★★☆
7 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 26 June 2020 The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a [topic](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) of [intense](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) [speculation](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021. 20 January 2021 - "It's all about testing." This is what the resolution of this question depends on, according to Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters. Increased testing, enabled by availability of cheaper rapid tests, will lead to a higher number of reported cases. ★★★★☆
8 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic). Dozens of [companies](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html)'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization). "[Compassionate use](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access)" and "[emergency use](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B "is aspirational at best," according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&amp;J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline ("Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution ("Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"), with 11% probability. ★★★★☆
9 When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP). The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut](https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3. ★★★★☆
10 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech). The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976). For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 12 February 2021 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (55%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated by May 2021. Two caveats are supply and willingness of people to be vaccinated. The next answer bin, "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021," has a 44% likelihood due to potential issues with logistics, especially when it is time to start offering second doses. ★★★★☆
11 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/). 11 February 2021 - The range "between 23% and 27%, inclusive" remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021. Superforecasters assign a 26% probability that the percentage of S&amp;P 500 board seats held by racial minorities in 2021 will be less than 23% and a 70% probability that it will be between 23% and 27%, inclusive. They see a 4% chance that it could be more than 27% this year. ★★★★☆
12 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report. 11 February 2021 - A growth of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters' top probability for the resolution of this question (61% probability). However, slow vaccine rollout, especially in Europe, and lockdowns at the start of 2021 are some of the factors the Superforecasters considered in assigning a 31% probability that the world's GDP may fall within 4% below the 2019 level. ★★★★☆
13 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 8 February 2021 - Morningstar reported global ESG funds increased by over 100% in 2020 relative to 2019, significantly outperforming their traditional fund peers. Superforecasters believe this strong performance should only serve to draw more investors and the value of sustainable funds is on track to increase further in 2021. The question is by how much. Superforecasters are split on whether the increase will be up to 100% higher relative to the 2020 value or will more than double relative to 2020. They currently see 1% chance that the value will remain the same or be lower than the previous year. ★★★★☆
14 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025. Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 12 February 2021 - Superforecasters increasingly see the US on track to distribute enough doses for 200 million people before July 2021 (77% probability). Johnson &amp; Johnson submitted for emergency use approval for their vaccine and, if successful, expects to deliver the first doses in March. Pfizer and Moderna have agreed to expedite the delivery of 100 million doses each by a month, moving them up to May. Superforecasters cite these and other factors in their reasoning, including production estimates, US Chief Medical Advisor Fauci's comments, and President Biden's plan to ramp up vaccine administration capabilities. They assign 20% probability that the distribution may slip into the third quarter. ★★★★☆
15 Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law? As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda. Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 12 February 2021 - The UK's relative success with its ongoing vaccination program may be good news for businesses, but Superforecasters note the national lockdown is expected to continue at least until the second week of March. A substantial proportion of the working population will not have been vaccinated before summer. They also note certain advantages to working from home (WFH), from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute. On the other hand, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business. Superforecasters see the highest probability (77%) that the percentage of working adults who work from home exclusively as of 1 July 2021 will be more than 10% but less than 20%. ★★★★☆
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When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy] (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) . Dozens of [companies] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) . " [Compassionate use] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) " and " [emergency use] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) " authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B "is aspirational at best," according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&amp;J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline ("Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution ("Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"), with 11% probability. ★★★★☆
When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized] (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut] (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3. ★★★★☆
When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E ("Not before 1 September 2021") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval. ★★★★☆
In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . 04 January 2021 - Bin B ("Between 23% and 27%, inclusive") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021. ★★★★☆
What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report. 04 January 2021 - Bin D ("Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position. ★★★★☆
What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B ("Higher by between 0% and 100%") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C ("Higher by more than 100%") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring. ★★★★☆
When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2? ★★★★☆
As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B ("More than 10% but less than 20%") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers. ★★★★☆
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data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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[
{
"Title": "Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 5 February 2021\nFrance is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible [run-off](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run [again](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html), but he has not yet committed to doing so.\n15 February 2021 - It is early days and a lot can happen before the election. To gauge their initial forecasts, Superforecasters are looking at opinion polls and possible wild cards. One question is whether incumbent Emmanuel Macron will run again. Assuming he does, Superforecasters give his Republic Forward a 69% probability of winning, with the National Rally a runner-up at 20% probability of winning. \"Macron is unpopular, yet less so than the alternative (especially in the French two-round system),\" one Superforecaster writes. See examples of their reasoning in the commentary below. \n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 29 January 2021\nThe next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a [snap](https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now) general election could be [called](http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf) before then. The question will resolve on the total number of [seats](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/) won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined.\n8 February 2021 - Italy's Prime Minister Conte, who has led a coalition government throughout the coronavirus emergency, resigned on 26 January. The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, but a snap general election could be called before then. Superforecasters are basing their initial predictions on their examination of Italy's electoral system and current polls, with an eye on developments that could affect the composition of Italian parliament.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 10 April 2020\nSince taking office in 2019, there have been [calls](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun) to [impeach](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html) President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the [COVID-19](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333) pandemic.\n2 February 2021 - Despite 48 impeachment requests filed against Jair Bolsonaro in the lower house of Brazil's legislative assembly, including for corruption scandals involving his immediate family and his policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, Speaker Rodrigo Maia, replaced 1 February by Arthur Lira, had shown [no intention](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/brazils-house-speaker-says-not-the-right-time-to-handle-impeachment-requests-against-bolsonaro-idUSKCN24P1MK) to start an impeachment process at the moment. The Brazilian president's popularity remains strong according to recent polls, and there are no legislative elections scheduled until October 2022 that could diminish Bolsonaro's support. Superforecasters see a 5% chance that Bolsonaro may cease to be Brazil's president before 1 April 2022. See top SuperforecasterÃ<72><C383> comments below.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -8,42 +35,6 @@
"Description": "Opened 22 January 2021\nThe next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.\nWhen he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. \nBut, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. \nSuperforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda. \n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., \"Big Tech\" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a \"public option\" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a \" [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) \" for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A \"public option\" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a \"public option\" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a \"public option\" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nControl of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch. \n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -53,6 +44,15 @@
"Description": "Opened 1 May 2020\nSpeculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)'s website (select \"view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions).\n27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 26 June 2020\nThe full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a [topic](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) of [intense](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) [speculation](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021.\n20 January 2021 - \"It's all about testing.\" This is what the resolution of this question depends on, according to Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters. Increased testing, enabled by availability of cheaper rapid tests, will lead to a higher number of reported cases.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
"Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -77,7 +77,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 7 December 2020\nThe UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.\n6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E (\"Not before 1 September 2021\") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.\n",
"Description": "Opened 7 December 2020\nThe UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech). The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976). For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.\n12 February 2021 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (55%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated by May 2021. Two caveats are supply and willingness of people to be vaccinated. The next answer bin, \"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021,\" has a 44% likelihood due to potential issues with logistics, especially when it is time to start offering second doses.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
@ -86,7 +86,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nIn its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . \n04 January 2021 - Bin B (\"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive\") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.\n",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nIn its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/). \n11 February 2021 - The range \"between 23% and 27%, inclusive\" remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021. Superforecasters assign a 26% probability that the percentage of S&amp;P 500 board seats held by racial minorities in 2021 will be less than 23% and a 70% probability that it will be between 23% and 27%, inclusive. They see a 4% chance that it could be more than 27% this year.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
@ -95,7 +95,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report.\n04 January 2021 - Bin D (\"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive\") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.\n",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report.\n11 February 2021 - A growth of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters' top probability for the resolution of this question (61% probability). However, slow vaccine rollout, especially in Europe, and lockdowns at the start of 2021 are some of the factors the Superforecasters considered in assigning a 31% probability that the world's GDP may fall within 4% below the 2019 level.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
@ -104,7 +104,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nInterest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.\n04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B (\"Higher by between 0% and 100%\") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C (\"Higher by more than 100%\") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.\n",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nInterest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.\n8 February 2021 - Morningstar reported global ESG funds increased by over 100% in 2020 relative to 2019, significantly outperforming their traditional fund peers. Superforecasters believe this strong performance should only serve to draw more investors and the value of sustainable funds is on track to increase further in 2021. The question is by how much. Superforecasters are split on whether the increase will be up to 100% higher relative to the 2020 value or will more than double relative to 2020. They currently see 1% chance that the value will remain the same or be lower than the previous year.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
@ -113,7 +113,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nDozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). \n8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?\n",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nDozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). \n12 February 2021 - Superforecasters increasingly see the US on track to distribute enough doses for 200 million people before July 2021 (77% probability). Johnson &amp; Johnson submitted for emergency use approval for their vaccine and, if successful, expects to deliver the first doses in March. Pfizer and Moderna have agreed to expedite the delivery of 100 million doses each by a month, moving them up to May. Superforecasters cite these and other factors in their reasoning, including production estimates, US Chief Medical Advisor Fauci's comments, and President Biden's plan to ramp up vaccine administration capabilities. They assign 20% probability that the distribution may slip into the third quarter.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
},
{
@ -122,7 +122,7 @@
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.\n04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B (\"More than 10% but less than 20%\") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.\n",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.\n12 February 2021 - The UK's relative success with its ongoing vaccination program may be good news for businesses, but Superforecasters note the national lockdown is expected to continue at least until the second week of March. A substantial proportion of the working population will not have been vaccinated before summer. They also note certain advantages to working from home (WFH), from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute. On the other hand, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business. Superforecasters see the highest probability (77%) that the percentage of working adults who work from home exclusively as of 1 July 2021 will be more than 10% but less than 20%.\n",
"Stars": "★★★★☆"
}
]

418
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,309 +1,311 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
","62","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
","48","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","44","★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
","87","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","96","★★☆☆☆"
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
","81","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","89","★★☆☆☆"
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","58","★★☆☆☆"
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
","96","★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"22%","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","71","★★☆☆☆"
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1924-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-28-february-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)).
","14","★★☆☆☆"
","289","★★★☆☆"
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1921-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","6","★★☆☆☆"
","102","★★★☆☆"
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1922-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","11","★★☆☆☆"
","200","★★★☆☆"
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.
","7","★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"78%","After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611) , [thelocal.it] (https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means) ). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.
","92","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ( [WHO] (https://covid19.who.int/table) , see 'Deaths - cumulative total',  [European Union] (https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1) ). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","102","★★★☆☆"
","208","★★★☆☆"
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"11%","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","164","★★★☆☆"
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","103","★★★☆☆"
","161","★★★☆☆"
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","83","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open",true,"82%","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","46","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections) , [Barron's] (https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304) , [Le Monde] (https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","33","★★☆☆☆"
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","45","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ( [UN] (https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082) , [Radio Canada International] (https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/) , [In Depth News] (https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa) ). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification] (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/) , [NPR] (http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) .
","102","★★★☆☆"
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"68%","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ( [TASS] (https://tass.com/defense/1236575) , [Daily Mail] (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html) ). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ( [CSIS] (https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/) ). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","92","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html) ). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672) ). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","65","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"36%","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
","133","★★★☆☆"
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","110","★★★☆☆"
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","170","★★★☆☆"
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"12%","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dcbfb0bdaeb5bab5bfbda8b5b3b2af9cbbb3b3b8b6a9b8bbb1b9b2a8f2bfb3b1e3afa9beb6b9bfa8e18da9b9afa8b5b3b2f9eeec9fb0bdaeb5bab5bfbda8b5b3b2) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","227","★★★☆☆"
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0a69666b78636c63696b7e636564794a6d65656e607f6e6d676f647e2469656735797f68606f697e375b7f6f797e6365642f383a49666b78636c63696b7e636564). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","271","★★★☆☆"
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","128","★★★☆☆"
","217","★★★☆☆"
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","141","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","109","★★★☆☆"
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ( [Edinburgh Live] (https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859) , [Parliament.scot] (https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx) , [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties] (https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx) ). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211) ).
","151","★★★☆☆"
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"11%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [Taipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ).
","190","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","124","★★★☆☆"
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"91%","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
","184","★★★☆☆"
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","60","★★☆☆☆"
","67","★★☆☆☆"
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","89","★★☆☆☆"
","117","★★★☆☆"
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","50","★★☆☆☆"
","59","★★☆☆☆"
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
","94","★★☆☆☆"
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"52%","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ( [Costa Rica News] (https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/) , [The Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365) , [Kyiv Post] (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html) ). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ( [government.ru] (http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/) ).
","64","★★☆☆☆"
","121","★★★☆☆"
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","74","★★☆☆☆"
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","118","★★★☆☆"
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ( [NFL] (https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl) ).
","195","★★★☆☆"
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7) , [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268) , [Balkan Insight] (https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/) ). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372) ). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","94","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU) ). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","81","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"78%","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html) , [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote) ). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","149","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern) ). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","150","★★★☆☆"
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ( [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47) ). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ( [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en)  [in English]).
","76","★★☆☆☆"
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","126","★★★☆☆"
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","93","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","207","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","191","★★★☆☆"
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","86","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","196","★★★☆☆"
","226","★★★☆☆"
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
","155","★★★☆☆"
","167","★★★☆☆"
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","148","★★★☆☆"
","166","★★★☆☆"
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#87e4ebe6f5eee1eee4e6f3eee8e9f4c7e0e8e8e3edf2e3e0eae2e9f3a9e4e8eab8f4f2e5ede2e4f3bad6f2e2f4f3eee8e9a2b5b7c4ebe6f5eee1eee4e6f3eee8e9) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","91","★★☆☆☆"
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","99","★★☆☆☆"
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) [in Spanish]).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021? 
Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion), [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. 
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","44","★★☆☆☆"
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021?  
Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5b38373a29323d32383a2f323435281b3c34343f312e3f3c363e352f7538343664282e39313e382f660a2e3e282f3234357e696b18373a29323d32383a2f323435) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique aquí.
","232","★★★☆☆"
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f7949b96859e919e9496839e989984b7909898939d8293909a929983d994989ac88482959d929483caa6829284839e9899d2c5c7b49b96859e919e9496839e9899). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","58","★★☆☆☆"
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","141","★★★☆☆"
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ( [CBS News] (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know) , [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf) , [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/) ).
","157","★★★☆☆"
","182","★★★☆☆"
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"13%","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","180","★★★☆☆"
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.
","29","★★☆☆☆"
","39","★★☆☆☆"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","352","★★★☆☆"
","425","★★★☆☆"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to ""States,"" under ""POSITIVE TEST RATE."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","271","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/) ).
","239","★★★☆☆"
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","92","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"45%","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html) , [Diem] (https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/) , [Securities.io] (https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) ).
","121","★★★☆☆"
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR) ).
","132","★★★☆☆"
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ( [European Parliament - Briefing] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf) , [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement) , [CEPS] (https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline) , [Core.ac.uk] (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf) ). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","368","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) , [Sinopharm] (http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html) , [Sinovac] (http://www.sinovac.com/) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787) ). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0) , [EMA] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19) , [EMA - Approvals] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) , [FDA - Emergency Preparedness] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) . Emergency use approvals would count.
","331","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/) , [CGTN] (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html) ). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","229","★★★☆☆"
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ( [U.S. Trade Representative] (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF) , [FOX Business] (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV) ).
","288","★★★☆☆"
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html) , [Nerd Wallet] (https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt) ). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january) ). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","200","★★★☆☆"
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ( [Fodor's Travel Guide] (https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ( [Smith Travel Research] (https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020) )
","271","★★★☆☆"
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-) , [Toronto Star] (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html) , [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports) ).
","229","★★★☆☆"
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ( [Yahoo News] (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042) , [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html) ). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","190","★★★☆☆"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html) , [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html) ). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","185","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"51%","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ( [Rotten Tomatoes] (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones) ). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html) , [Express] (https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones) , [Entertainment Weekly] (https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/) ).
","70","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole) , [Bank of England] (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate) ). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436) ). 
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
","273","★★★☆☆"
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","96","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","138","★★★☆☆"
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
","151","★★★☆☆"
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","402","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
","361","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","252","★★★☆☆"
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
","314","★★★☆☆"
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","230","★★★☆☆"
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","330","★★★☆☆"
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","263","★★★☆☆"
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","212","★★★☆☆"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","204","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","74","★★☆☆☆"
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
","326","★★★☆☆"
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","90","★★☆☆☆"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/) , [Bloomberg Law] (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule) , [National Law Review] (https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when) ). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ( [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","56","★★☆☆☆"
","95","★★☆☆☆"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"72%","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","66","★★☆☆☆"
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
","145","★★★☆☆"
","180","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
","91","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help) , [IMF - June 2020] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) , [World Economic Forum] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) ). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) ), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ( [IMF - October 2020] (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx) ).
","99","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","294","★★★☆☆"
","322","★★★☆☆"
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","117","★★★☆☆"
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ( [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020) , see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
","137","★★★☆☆"
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"45%","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","380","★★★☆☆"
","430","★★★☆☆"
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)).
NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close ""A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021.""
","217","★★★☆☆"
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year) ). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ( [National Bureau of Statistics] (http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01) ). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
","428","★★★☆☆"
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) ).
","929","★★★☆☆"
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify) ). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ( [Tesla Q1 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf) , [Tesla Q2 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","416","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president) ).
","264","★★★☆☆"
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for ""Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices"" ( [EIA] (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W) ).
","364","★★★☆☆"
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime) , [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542) ).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) .
","400","★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161) ). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ( [Global Fire Emissions Database] (http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html) ).
","204","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ( [EIA 19 October 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516) , [EIA 30 June 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ( [EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE] (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03) ). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","266","★★★☆☆"
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice) ,  [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html) ). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ( [Ethiopian Constitution] (https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html) , see Article 93).
","245","★★★☆☆"
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ( [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp) ). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ( [Oil Price] (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html) , [CME Group] (https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html) ). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM) , Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM) ).
","261","★★★☆☆"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ).
","233","★★★☆☆"
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers) ,  [National Interest] (https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/) ). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info] (https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea) , [Inquirer.net] (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana) .
","366","★★★☆☆"
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) ). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559) ).
","455","★★★☆☆"
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html) ). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.
NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.
","382","★★★☆☆"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ).
","376","★★★☆☆"
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","140","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ( [Middle East Monitor] (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/) ).
","174","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ( [Medium] (https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html) , [Vox] (https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp) ). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
","468","★★★☆☆"
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","1057","★★★☆☆"
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","451","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
","283","★★★☆☆"
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for ""Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices"" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W)).
","408","★★★☆☆"
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","423","★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
","210","★★★☆☆"
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","282","★★★☆☆"
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
","260","★★★☆☆"
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ( [Apple] (https://www.apple.com/iphone/) ). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ( [9 to 5 Mac] (https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/) , [ABS-CBN] (https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction) ). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ( [Apple 10-K (2020)] (https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf) , see page 21).
","238","★★★☆☆"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","255","★★★☆☆"
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers), [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana).
","406","★★★☆☆"
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)).
","515","★★★☆☆"
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","148","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","197","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","280","★★★☆☆"
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"96%","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
","246","★★★☆☆"
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","1044","★★★☆☆"
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349) , [Deutsche Welle] (https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html) ).
","242","★★★☆☆"
","1154","★★★☆☆"
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
","255","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","171","★★★☆☆"
","180","★★★☆☆"
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.
","132","★★★☆☆"
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"98%","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ( [Boom Supersonic] (https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf) , [BoomSupersonic.com] (https://boomsupersonic.com) , [Flight Global] (https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article) ). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","122","★★★☆☆"
","139","★★★☆☆"
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","123","★★★☆☆"
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","416","★★★☆☆"
","455","★★★☆☆"
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","551","★★★☆☆"
","600","★★★☆☆"
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","222","★★★☆☆"
","247","★★★☆☆"
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","351","★★★☆☆"
","394","★★★☆☆"
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
","358","★★★☆☆"
","383","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, ""at sea"" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.
NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be ""at sea.""
","380","★★★☆☆"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123) ). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ( [Ballotpedia] (https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania) ). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ( [Third Circuit Court of Appeals] (http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","195","★★★☆☆"
","398","★★★☆☆"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"98%","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","203","★★★☆☆"
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
","352","★★★☆☆"
","372","★★★☆☆"
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
","240","★★★☆☆"
","252","★★★☆☆"
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
","562","★★★☆☆"
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ( [Britannica] (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson) ). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom) ,  [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419) , [Independent] (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html) ).
","952","★★★☆☆"
","593","★★★☆☆"
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"7%","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
","1013","★★★☆☆"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","343","★★★☆☆"
","356","★★★☆☆"
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","292","★★★☆☆"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","576","★★★☆☆"
","301","★★★☆☆"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","623","★★★☆☆"
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","695","★★★☆☆"
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ( [Supremecourt.gov] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf) ). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/) , [Lexology] (https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830) , [ZDNet] (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/) ). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","187","★★★☆☆"
","731","★★★☆☆"
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","195","★★★☆☆"
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","304","★★★☆☆"
","311","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
","510","★★★☆☆"
","547","★★★☆☆"
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","447","★★★☆☆"
","458","★★★☆☆"
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","196","★★★☆☆"
","205","★★★☆☆"
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","320","★★★☆☆"
","335","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","236","★★★☆☆"
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555) , [CatalanNews] (https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e) ).
","246","★★★☆☆"
","258","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","245","★★★☆☆"
","259","★★★☆☆"
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","490","★★★☆☆"
","538","★★★☆☆"
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","262","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y) ). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ( [The Atlantic] (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/) , [Brookings Institute] (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/) ).
Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#42212e23302b242b2123362b2d2c3102252d2d26283726252f272c366c212d2f7d313720282721367f13372731362b2d2c677072012e23302b242b2123362b2d2c) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","546","★★★☆☆"
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#8fece3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1fccfe8e0e0ebe5faebe8e2eae1fba1ece0e2b0fcfaede5eaecfbb2defaeafcfbe6e0e1aabdbfcce3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","278","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"12%","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4c2f202d3e252a252f2d382523223f0c2b2323282639282b21292238622f2321733f392e26292f38711d39293f38252322697e7c0f202d3e252a252f2d38252322). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","571","★★★☆☆"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
","212","★★★☆☆"
","226","★★★☆☆"
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
","201","★★★☆☆"
","223","★★★☆☆"
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","194","★★★☆☆"
","217","★★★☆☆"
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#8fece3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1fccfe8e0e0ebe5faebe8e2eae1fba1ece0e2b0fcfaede5eaecfbb2defaeafcfbe6e0e1aabdbfcce3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","966","★★★☆☆"
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c3a0afa2b1aaa5aaa0a2b7aaacadb083a4acaca7a9b6a7a4aea6adb7eda0acaefcb0b6a1a9a6a0b7fe92b6a6b0b7aaacade6f1f380afa2b1aaa5aaa0a2b7aaacad). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1048","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","1182","★★★☆☆"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation) ,  [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf) ,  [Congress.gov (House Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388) ,  [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885) ). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic) ,  [Legal Reader] (https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/) ). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ef8c838e9d8689868c8e9b8680819caf8880808b859a8b88828a819bc18c8082d09c9a8d858a8c9bd2be9a8a9c9b868081cadddfac838e9d8689868c8e9b868081). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","1301","★★★☆☆"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"78%","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e7848b86958e818e8486938e888994a7808888838d9283808a828993c984888ad89492858d828493dab6928294938e8889c2d5d7a48b86958e818e8486938e8889) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","221","★★★☆☆"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html) , [Center for Strategic and International Studies] (https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) , [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6d0e010c1f040b040e0c190402031e2d0a0202090718090a00080319430e0200521e180f07080e19503c18081e19040203485f5d2e010c1f040b040e0c19040203) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","905","★★★☆☆"
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","229","★★★☆☆"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#14777875667d727d7775607d7b7a6754737b7b707e61707379717a603a777b792b6761767e7177602945617167607d7b7a312624577875667d727d7775607d7b7a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","943","★★★☆☆"
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","259","★★★☆☆"
","277","★★★☆☆"
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","251","★★★☆☆"
","264","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#84e7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebeaf7c4e3ebebe0eef1e0e3e9e1eaf0aae7ebe9bbf7f1e6eee1e7f0b9d5f1e1f7f0edebeaa1b6b4c7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebea) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","362","★★★☆☆"
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#395a55584b505f505a584d5056574a795e56565d534c5d5e545c574d175a5654064a4c5b535c5a4d04684c5c4a4d5056571c0b097a55584b505f505a584d505657). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","371","★★★☆☆"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","174","★★★☆☆"
","180","★★★☆☆"
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
","234","★★★☆☆"
","251","★★★☆☆"
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","356","★★★☆☆"
","383","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","255","★★★☆☆"
","257","★★★☆☆"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","288","★★★☆☆"
","293","★★★☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp Good Judgment Open true 50% Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). 62 ★★☆☆☆
3 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa Good Judgment Open true 75% Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). 48 ★★☆☆☆
4 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 Good Judgment Open true 1% On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. 44 ★★☆☆☆
5 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open true 25% In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. 87 ★★☆☆☆
6 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open true 2% President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). 96 ★★☆☆☆
7 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). 81 ★★☆☆☆
8 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 Good Judgment Open true 6% Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). 89 ★★☆☆☆
9 Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship Good Judgment Open false none The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). 58 ★★☆☆☆
10 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities Good Judgment Open true 15% Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. 96 ★★☆☆☆
11 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 Good Judgment Open true 22% Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. 71 ★★☆☆☆
12 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1924-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-28-february-2021-according-to-the-cdc Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)). 289 ★★★☆☆
13 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1921-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 102 ★★★☆☆
14 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1922-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 200 ★★★☆☆
15 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. 208 ★★★☆☆
16 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open true 11% The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. 164 ★★★☆☆
17 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. 161 ★★★☆☆
18 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. 83 ★★☆☆☆
19 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open true 82% Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). 46 ★★☆☆☆
20 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. 65 ★★☆☆☆
21 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open true 36% Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). 133 ★★★☆☆
22 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 70% Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. 110 ★★★☆☆
23 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC? Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1924-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-28-february-2021-according-to-the-cdc https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under “Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses” at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 ( [CDC] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ). Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. 14 170 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
24 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021? Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1921-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 12% The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week starting 21 February 2021 ( [Healthdata.gov] (https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries) ). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0a69666b78636c63696b7e636564794a6d65656e607f6e6d676f647e2469656735797f68606f697e375b7f6f797e6365642f383a49666b78636c63696b7e636564). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 6 271 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
25 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021? When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1922-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ( [JHU CSSE GitHub] (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv) ). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." 11 217 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
26 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021? How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1923-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-starting-21-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive ( [JHU CSSE GitHub] (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv) ). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021. The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 7 190 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
27 Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open true 78% 5% After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611) , [thelocal.it] (https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means) ). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 92 124 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
28 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open true 20% 91% The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ( [WHO] (https://covid19.who.int/table) , see 'Deaths - cumulative total',  [European Union] (https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1) ). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). 102 184 ★★★☆☆
29 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 10% The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87) , [Supreme Court] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx) ). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 103 67 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
30 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open false none The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business) , [LA Times] (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic) ). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ( [Box Office Mojo] (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses) ). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. 46 117 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
31 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open true false 90% none Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections) , [Barron's] (https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304) , [Le Monde] (https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. 33 59 ★★☆☆☆
32 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. 45 121 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open true 50% Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ( [UN] (https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082) , [Radio Canada International] (https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/) , [In Depth News] (https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa) ). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification] (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/) , [NPR] (http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) . 102 ★★★☆☆
Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 68% Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ( [TASS] (https://tass.com/defense/1236575) , [Daily Mail] (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html) ). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ( [CSIS] (https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/) ). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. 92 ★★☆☆☆
33 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open true 8% 50% Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html) ). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672) ). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). 133 74 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
34 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 15% none The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dcbfb0bdaeb5bab5bfbda8b5b3b2af9cbbb3b3b8b6a9b8bbb1b9b2a8f2bfb3b1e3afa9beb6b9bfa8e18da9b9afa8b5b3b2f9eeec9fb0bdaeb5bab5bfbda8b5b3b2) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). 227 150 ★★★☆☆
35 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 85% COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ( [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761) ). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ( [PHAC] (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html) ). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. 128 126 ★★★☆☆
36 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. 93 ★★☆☆☆
37 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open true 85% An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. 207 ★★★☆☆
38 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 8% The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ( [COVID Act Now - Glossary] (https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate) ). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org] (https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. 141 191 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open true Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 109 ★★★☆☆
Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open true 90% The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ( [Edinburgh Live] (https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859) , [Parliament.scot] (https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx) , [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties] (https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx) ). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211) ). 151 ★★★☆☆
39 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open true 11% 3% In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [Taipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ( [Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [T] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) [aipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). 60 86 ★★☆☆☆
40 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open false true none 1% Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny) , [Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267) ). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ( [RT] (https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7) ). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 89 226 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
41 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open false none Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D) ). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O) ). The closing date for this question will not be extended. AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). 50 167 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open false none The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union) , [Dutch News] (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146) , [houseofrepresentatives.nl] (https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet) ). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D) ). A caretaker government would not count. 94 ★★☆☆☆
Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open true 52% While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ( [Costa Rica News] (https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/) , [The Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365) , [Kyiv Post] (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html) ). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ( [government.ru] (http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/) ). 64 ★★☆☆☆
What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US) ). 118 ★★★☆☆
Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv Good Judgment Open false none Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ( [NFL] (https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl) ). 195 ★★★☆☆
42 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open true false 75% none North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7) , [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268) , [Balkan Insight] (https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/) ). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372) ). The actual release of data is immaterial. On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). 94 166 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
43 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia Good Judgment Open false none Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU) ). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 81 99 ★★☆☆☆
44 How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election Good Judgment Open false none The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) [in Spanish]). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021?  Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ([21votes.com](https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/), [El Salvador Perspectives](http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html)). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html), [World Politics Review](https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual)). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ([Tribunal Supremo Electoral](https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion), [Gato Encerrado](https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.  Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#f7949b96859e919e9496839e989984b7909898939d8293909a929983d994989ac88482959d929483caa6829284839e9899d2c5c7b49b96859e919e9496839e9899). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). 58 ★★☆☆☆
45 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). 182 ★★★☆☆
46 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 13% Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). 180 ★★★☆☆
47 When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis Good Judgment Open false none After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506), [Xataka](https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis) [in Spanish], [El Economista](https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html) [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. 39 ★★☆☆☆
48 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher Good Judgment Open true false 78% none An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html) , [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote) ). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 149 425 ★★★☆☆
49 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0 Good Judgment Open true false 15% none The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern) ). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ([CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 150 368 ★★★☆☆
50 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open true false 4% none President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ( [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47) ). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ( [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en)  [in English]). Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). 76 273 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
51 Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 1% none Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. 196 96 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
52 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open false true none 50% AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html) , [Motley Fool] (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/) ). The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). 155 138 ★★★☆☆
53 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open false true none 0% On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company) ). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg - APPL] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US) , see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB) , [Bloomberg - SAR] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR) ). The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). 148 151 ★★★☆☆
54 Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#87e4ebe6f5eee1eee4e6f3eee8e9f4c7e0e8e8e3edf2e3e0eae2e9f3a9e4e8eab8f4f2e5ede2e4f3bad6f2e2f4f3eee8e9a2b5b7c4ebe6f5eee1eee4e6f3eee8e9) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. 91 402 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
55 How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election? Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion)  [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)  [in Spanish]). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021?  Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) , [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.  Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. 44 361 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
56 What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open false true none 10% Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021?   Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5b38373a29323d32383a2f323435281b3c34343f312e3f3c363e352f7538343664282e39313e382f660a2e3e282f3234357e696b18373a29323d32383a2f323435) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique aquí. Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. 232 252 ★★★☆☆
57 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 2% The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y) ). The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). 141 314 ★★★☆☆
58 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open true 10% 20% Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ( [CBS News] (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know) , [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf) , [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/) ). Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. 157 230 ★★★☆☆
59 When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis? Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research Good Judgment Open false true none 6% After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506) , [Xataka] (https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis)  [in Spanish], [El Economista] (https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html)  [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) 29 330 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
60 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher? Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open false none As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). 352 263 ★★★☆☆
61 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%? Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. 271 212 ★★★☆☆
62 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open false none Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/) ). While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. 239 204 ★★★☆☆
63 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open false true none 50% The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). 92 74 ★★☆☆☆
64 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open true 45% 3% The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html) , [Diem] (https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/) , [Securities.io] (https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) ). The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  121 326 ★★★☆☆
65 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open true 2% 90% The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR) ). Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. 132 95 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
66 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open false true none 72% While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ( [European Parliament - Briefing] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf) , [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement) , [CEPS] (https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline) , [Core.ac.uk] (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf) ). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 368 66 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
67 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open false none Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) , [Sinopharm] (http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html) , [Sinovac] (http://www.sinovac.com/) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787) ). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0) , [EMA] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19) , [EMA - Approvals] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) , [FDA - Emergency Preparedness] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) . Emergency use approvals would count. The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). 331 180 ★★★☆☆
68 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open true false 15% none Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/) , [CGTN] (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html) ). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). 229 99 ★★★☆☆ ★★☆☆☆
69 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open true 2% 90% The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ( [U.S. Trade Representative] (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF) , [FOX Business] (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV) ). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). 288 322 ★★★☆☆
70 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open true false 20% none Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html) , [Nerd Wallet] (https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt) ). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january) ). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. 200 137 ★★★☆☆
71 Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open true 15% 45% Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ( [Fodor's Travel Guide] (https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ( [Smith Travel Research] (https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020) ) The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). 271 430 ★★★☆☆
72 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam Good Judgment Open false none Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-) , [Toronto Star] (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html) , [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports) ). Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader), [Vietnam Times](https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html)). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/)). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021." 229 261 ★★★☆☆
73 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 8% none In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ( [Yahoo News] (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042) , [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html) ). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. 190 468 ★★★☆☆
74 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html) , [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html) ). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). 185 1057 ★★★☆☆
75 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 51% none The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ( [Rotten Tomatoes] (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones) ). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html) , [Express] (https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones) , [Entertainment Weekly] (https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/) ). As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. 70 451 ★★☆☆☆ ★★★☆☆
Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open true 6% The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole) , [Bank of England] (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate) ). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436) ).  273 ★★★☆☆
Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open true 90% Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html) ). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. 90 ★★☆☆☆
In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open true 70% Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/) , [Bloomberg Law] (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule) , [National Law Review] (https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when) ). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ( [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 56 ★★☆☆☆
What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM) ). 145 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open false none Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185) ). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/) ). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030) ). 91 ★★☆☆☆
Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open true The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help) , [IMF - June 2020] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) , [World Economic Forum] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) ). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) ), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ( [IMF - October 2020] (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx) ). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) . 294 ★★★☆☆
Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open false none Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU) ). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ( [Peruvian Times] (https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/) ). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. 117 ★★★☆☆
Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open true 50% The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ( [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020) , see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) . 380 ★★★☆☆
Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam Good Judgment Open false none Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader) , [Vietnam Times] (https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html) ). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/) ). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021." 217 ★★★☆☆
What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year) ). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ( [National Bureau of Statistics] (http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01) ). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. 428 ★★★☆☆
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) ). 929 ★★★☆☆
76 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open false true none 5% As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify) ). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ( [Tesla Q1 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf) , [Tesla Q2 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). 416 283 ★★★☆☆
77 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 6% 0% Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president) ). The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W)). 264 408 ★★★☆☆
78 Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 1% 2% The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ( [EIA] (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W) ). Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). 364 423 ★★★☆☆
79 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open true 70% The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). 210 ★★★☆☆
80 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open true 97% A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. 282 ★★★☆☆
81 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open true 85% On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). 260 ★★★☆☆
82 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). 255 ★★★☆☆
83 Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 2% In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers), [National Interest](https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/)). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info](https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea), [Inquirer.net](https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana). 406 ★★★☆☆
84 Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan Good Judgment Open true 1% In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736)). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559)). 515 ★★★☆☆
85 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. 148 ★★★☆☆
86 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open true 2% Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). 197 ★★★☆☆
87 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open true 2% As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 280 ★★★☆☆
88 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open true 96% Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime) , [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542) ). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) . Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). 400 246 ★★★☆☆
89 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 70% none The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161) ). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ( [Global Fire Emissions Database] (http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html) ). As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). 204 1154 ★★★☆☆
90 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 95% 2% A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ( [EIA 19 October 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516) , [EIA 30 June 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ( [EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE] (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03) ). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). 266 255 ★★★☆☆
91 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open true 85% 4% On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice) ,  [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html) ). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ( [Ethiopian Constitution] (https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html) , see Article 93). Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). 245 180 ★★★☆☆
92 Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil? Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open true false 0% none West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ( [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp) ). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ( [Oil Price] (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html) , [CME Group] (https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html) ). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM) , Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM) ). The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. 261 139 ★★★☆☆
93 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open false true none 97% The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  233 123 ★★★☆☆
94 Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true false 4% none In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers) ,  [National Interest] (https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/) ). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info] (https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea) , [Inquirer.net] (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana) . Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. 366 455 ★★★☆☆
95 Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true 2% 10% In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) ). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559) ). The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. 455 600 ★★★☆☆
96 Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 95% none Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html) ). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count. NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count. As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). 382 247 ★★★☆☆
97 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region? What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. 376 394 ★★★☆☆
98 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). 140 383 ★★★☆☆
99 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open true 2% 0% Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ( [Middle East Monitor] (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/) ). A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute), [Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea." 174 398 ★★★☆☆
100 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open true 2% 98% As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ( [Medium] (https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html) , [Vox] (https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp) ). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 260 203 ★★★☆☆
101 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open true 95% 2% Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ( [Apple] (https://www.apple.com/iphone/) ). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ( [9 to 5 Mac] (https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/) , [ABS-CBN] (https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction) ). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ( [Apple 10-K (2020)] (https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf) , see page 21). Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). 238 372 ★★★☆☆
102 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open false none As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil) ). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). 1044 252 ★★★☆☆
103 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open true false 1% none Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349) , [Deutsche Welle] (https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html) ). Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). 242 593 ★★★☆☆
104 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open true 4% 7% Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ( [Al-Monitor] (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/) ). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ( [Egypt Today] (https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council) , [UN] (https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm) ). Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). 171 1013 ★★★☆☆
105 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ( [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf) , [ScienceMag.org] (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html) ). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/) ). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/) ). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 132 356 ★★★☆☆
Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open true 98% Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ( [Boom Supersonic] (https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf) , [BoomSupersonic.com] (https://boomsupersonic.com) , [Flight Global] (https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article) ). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  122 ★★★☆☆
When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open false none Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ( [Government of Canada] (https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html) , [U.S. Embassy - Canada] (https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open) ). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. 416 ★★★☆☆
For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true 10% The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us) ). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. 551 ★★★☆☆
What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ( [LMTonline] (https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php) , [Real Estate Weekly] (https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/) , [Commercial Property Executive] (https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/) ). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS) ). 222 ★★★☆☆
What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ( [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august) , [KATU] (https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact) ). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST) ). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. 351 ★★★☆☆
When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open false none Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments) , [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3) ). 358 ★★★☆☆
106 Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open true 0% A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html) , [Fox News] (https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea." Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. 380 301 ★★★☆☆
107 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open true 97% 20% In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123) ). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ( [Ballotpedia] (https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania) ). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ( [Third Circuit Court of Appeals] (http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 195 623 ★★★☆☆
108 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open true false 2% none Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ( [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360) , [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/) ). Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. 352 731 ★★★☆☆
109 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open false true none 95% The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ( [UEFA] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/) , [UEFA (Clubs)] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/) ). To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 240 195 ★★★☆☆
110 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open false true none 0% Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363) , [Sky Sports] (https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return) , [Goal] (https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq) , [Premier League] (https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures) ). After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 562 311 ★★★☆☆
111 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open true 5% Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ( [Britannica] (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson) ). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom) ,  [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419) , [Independent] (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html) ). Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). 952 547 ★★★☆☆
112 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 5% none CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ( [State.gov] (https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. 343 458 ★★★☆☆
113 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open true false 0% none Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ( [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html) , [CBS SF BayArea] (https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/) , [California AB 2125] (https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125) , [National Conference of State Legislatures] (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx) ). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ( [U.S. Election Assistance Commission] (https://www.eac.gov/voting-system) ). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. 292 205 ★★★☆☆
114 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open true false none CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 576 335 ★★★☆☆
When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open false none Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ( [TSA] (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) ). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. 695 ★★★☆☆
In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open true 92% To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ( [Supremecourt.gov] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf) ). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/) , [Lexology] (https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830) , [ZDNet] (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/) ). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 187 ★★★☆☆
In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open true 0% After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ( [Kaiser Family Foundation] (https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/) , [Law.cornell.edu] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal) ). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ( [Politico] (https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf) , [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 304 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open true 5% Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ( [Montreal Gazette] (https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world) , [Dept. of State] (https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm) , [History.com] (https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics) ). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ( [Daily Sabah] (https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china) , [Politico] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581) , [Olympic.org] (https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022) ). 510 ★★★☆☆
How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The Arab League consists of 22 member states ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html) , [Arab League] (http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx) ). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel) , [Whitehouse.gov] (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/) ). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league) ). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. 447 ★★★☆☆
When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open false none As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ( [European Council] (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf) , [European Parliament] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935) ). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ( [Ernst &amp; Young] (https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024) ). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. 196 ★★★☆☆
How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ( [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/) , [The Verge] (https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y) , [Teslarati] (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/) , [Inverse] (https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 320 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open false none In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2) ). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ( [Amazon] (https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality) , [India Times] (https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844) ). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. 236 ★★★☆☆
Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain Good Judgment Open false none Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555) , [CatalanNews] (https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e) ). 246 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open false none Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ( [Car and Driver] (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/) , [Electrek] (https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)) . Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ( [Road/Show] (https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/) , [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/) ). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html) , [Axios] (https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html) . For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). 245 ★★★☆☆
115 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open false none As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/) , [Starlink] (https://www.starlink.com/) ). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. 490 258 ★★★☆☆
116 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open true false 2% none Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806) , [World Meteorological Organization] (https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ( [NOAA] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/) ). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ( [NOAA - June 2020 Report] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006) ). Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). 262 259 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open true 10% In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y) ). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ( [The Atlantic] (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/) , [Brookings Institute] (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/) ). Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#42212e23302b242b2123362b2d2c3102252d2d26283726252f272c366c212d2f7d313720282721367f13372731362b2d2c677072012e23302b242b2123362b2d2c) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 546 ★★★☆☆
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open false none Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ( [Ars Technica] (https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/) ,  [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html) ,  [Centre for International Governance Innovation] (https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail) ). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1695] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. 212 ★★★☆☆
How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open false none Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177) ,  [Shine.cn] (https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/) ,  [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html) ,  [Inside EVs] (https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/) ). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ( [Caam.org] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html)  [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g.,  [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html) ,  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/)  [in Chinese],  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/english)  [in English],  [China Daily] (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html) ). This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1697] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. 201 ★★★☆☆
How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ( [MY EV] (https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging) ). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ( [Alternative Fuels Data Center] (https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC) ). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." 194 ★★★☆☆
How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) , [Scientific American] (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) , [Lancet] (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext) ). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ( [Africa CDC] (https://africacdc.org/covid-19/) ). Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#8fece3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1fccfe8e0e0ebe5faebe8e2eae1fba1ece0e2b0fcfaede5eaecfbb2defaeafcfbe6e0e1aabdbfcce3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 966 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open false none Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ( [ESPN] (https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021) , [Olympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/) , [Paralympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/) ). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797) ). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#dab9b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4a99abdb5b5beb0afbebdb7bfb4aef4b9b5b7e5a9afb8b0bfb9aee78bafbfa9aeb3b5b4ffe8ea99b6bba8b3bcb3b9bbaeb3b5b4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 1182 ★★★☆☆
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open true 75% Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation) ,  [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf) ,  [Congress.gov (House Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388) ,  [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885) ). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic) ,  [Legal Reader] (https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/) ). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e7848b86958e818e8486938e888994a7808888838d9283808a828993c984888ad89492858d828493dab6928294938e8889c2d5d7a48b86958e818e8486938e8889) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 221 ★★★☆☆
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html) , [Center for Strategic and International Studies] (https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) , [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6d0e010c1f040b040e0c190402031e2d0a0202090718090a00080319430e0200521e180f07080e19503c18081e19040203485f5d2e010c1f040b040e0c19040203) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 905 ★★★☆☆
How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3) ). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ( [Tesla] (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 259 ★★★☆☆
How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ( [Smart Energy International] (https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) ). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ( [EAFO] (https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats) ) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". 251 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open false none Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ( [NHTSA] (https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety) , [U.S. News] (https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/) ). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#84e7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebeaf7c4e3ebebe0eef1e0e3e9e1eaf0aae7ebe9bbf7f1e6eee1e7f0b9d5f1e1f7f0edebeaa1b6b4c7e8e5f6ede2ede7e5f0edebea) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 362 ★★★☆☆
Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open true 2% Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ( [European Automobile Manufacturers Association] (https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen) ,  [Europa] (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en) ,  [Electrive] (https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/) ). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see  [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631] (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631) , particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 174 ★★★☆☆
What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open false none Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ( [Clean Technica] (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a  [2015 Nature Climate Change study] (https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf) . The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ( [The Mack Institute] (https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/) ). 234 ★★★☆☆
What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open false none Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) , [NASDAQ] (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11) , [CSP] (https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs) , [IEA] (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ( [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/) ). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. 356 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open true 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [El Universal] (https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1417] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 255 ★★★☆☆
Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open true 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system) , [Economist Intelligence Unit] (https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) ). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1418] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 288 ★★★☆☆
117 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open false none As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. 538 ★★★☆☆
118 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open true 2% Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#8fece3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1fccfe8e0e0ebe5faebe8e2eae1fba1ece0e2b0fcfaede5eaecfbb2defaeafcfbe6e0e1aabdbfcce3eefde6e9e6eceefbe6e0e1). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 278 ★★★☆☆
119 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open true 12% In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#4c2f202d3e252a252f2d382523223f0c2b2323282639282b21292238622f2321733f392e26292f38711d39293f38252322697e7c0f202d3e252a252f2d38252322). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 571 ★★★☆☆
120 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open false none Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. 226 ★★★☆☆
121 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open false none Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. 223 ★★★☆☆
122 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." 217 ★★★☆☆
123 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c3a0afa2b1aaa5aaa0a2b7aaacadb083a4acaca7a9b6a7a4aea6adb7eda0acaefcb0b6a1a9a6a0b7fe92b6a6b0b7aaacade6f1f380afa2b1aaa5aaa0a2b7aaacad). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 1048 ★★★☆☆
124 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open false none Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ef8c838e9d8689868c8e9b8680819caf8880808b859a8b88828a819bc18c8082d09c9a8d858a8c9bd2be9a8a9c9b868081cadddfac838e9d8689868c8e9b868081). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 1301 ★★★☆☆
125 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open true 78% Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5f3c333e2d3639363c3e2b3630312c1f3830303b352a3b38323a312b713c3032602c2a3d353a3c2b620e2a3a2c2b3630317a6d6f1c333e2d3639363c3e2b363031). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 229 ★★★☆☆
126 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 5% Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#14777875667d727d7775607d7b7a6754737b7b707e61707379717a603a777b792b6761767e7177602945617167607d7b7a312624577875667d727d7775607d7b7a). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 943 ★★★☆☆
127 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 277 ★★★☆☆
128 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". 264 ★★★☆☆
129 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open false none Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#395a55584b505f505a584d5056574a795e56565d534c5d5e545c574d175a5654064a4c5b535c5a4d04684c5c4a4d5056571c0b097a55584b505f505a584d505657). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). 371 ★★★☆☆
130 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open true 2% Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 180 ★★★☆☆
131 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open false none Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). 251 ★★★☆☆
132 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open false none Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. 383 ★★★☆☆
133 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open true 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 257 ★★★☆☆
134 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open true 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 293 ★★★☆☆
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data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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51
data/hypermind-questions.csv
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@ -1,11 +1,11 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"21.82%","
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"3%","
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"71.00%","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"72%","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"35.00%","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"34%","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"5.00%","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"4%","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","
",,"★★★☆☆"
@ -19,13 +19,13 @@
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%","This question will be judged according to the number of ""fatalities"" published by ACLED ( [http://www.acleddata.com] (http://www.acleddata.com) ) in the ""Battle"" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard] (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard)
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"23%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
",,"★★★☆☆"
@ -42,25 +42,27 @@ Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='h
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind",false,"none","
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"39.00%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"39%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).
Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)
",,"★★★☆☆"
"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",false,"none","Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"66.00%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"90%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"60.00%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"78%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"91.26%","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"94%","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"67.00%","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"72%","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
@ -69,7 +71,7 @@ Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation i
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
@ -78,7 +80,7 @@ Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation i
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
@ -96,12 +98,17 @@ For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “c
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc).
Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",,"★★★☆☆"
"When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's ""primary"" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).*
The relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (""no measures"") rises at 45 or more in the ""7 days average"" version of the graph.
If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of ""no measures for workplace closures."" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.
*For this question, ""no measures for workplace closures"" will correspond to a 0 for the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the ""C2_Workplace closing"" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..
",,"★★★☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 21.82% 3% ★★★☆☆
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 71.00% 72% This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. ★★★☆☆
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 35.00% 34% While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. ★★★☆☆
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 5.00% 4% The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ★★★☆☆
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none ★★★☆☆
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. ★★★☆☆
8 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none ★★★☆☆
9 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World] (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) ★★★☆☆
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H ★★★☆☆
11 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". ★★★☆☆
19 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com] (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. ★★★☆☆
20 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. ★★★☆☆
21 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> ★★★☆☆
22 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. ★★★☆☆
23 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. ★★★☆☆
24 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind false none Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. ★★★☆☆
25 When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind false true none 39% Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/) ★★★☆☆
26 Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true false 39.00% none Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/] (https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/) Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME) ★★★☆☆
27 What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021? Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind false true none 90% Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME] (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME) This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. ★★★☆☆
28 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 66.00% 78% This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. ★★★☆☆
Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 60.00% This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. ★★★☆☆
Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 91.26% On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. ★★★☆☆
29 In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 67.00% 94% The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021. On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM. ★★★☆☆
30 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind false true none 72% This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate. The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021. ★★★☆☆
31 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021? What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind false none This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate. This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: [https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate. ★★★☆☆
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data/hypermind-questions.json
View File

@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "21.82%",
"Percentage": "3%",
"Description": "\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71.00%",
"Percentage": "72%",
"Description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35.00%",
"Percentage": "34%",
"Description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -31,7 +31,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.00%",
"Percentage": "4%",
"Description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) \n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -89,6 +89,15 @@
"Description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
@ -103,7 +112,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.00%",
"Percentage": "8%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -112,19 +121,10 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.00%",
"Percentage": "23%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.00%",
"Description": "This question will be judged according to the number of \"fatalities\" published by ACLED ( [http://www.acleddata.com] (http://www.acleddata.com) ) in the \"Battle\" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard] (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard) \n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
@ -188,6 +188,15 @@
"Description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
@ -202,7 +211,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "39.00%",
"Percentage": "39%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).\nFollow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/](https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -220,7 +229,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "66.00%",
"Percentage": "90%",
"Description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -229,7 +238,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60.00%",
"Percentage": "78%",
"Description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -238,7 +247,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91.26%",
"Percentage": "94%",
"Description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -247,7 +256,7 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "67.00%",
"Percentage": "72%",
"Description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.\n",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
@ -255,7 +264,7 @@
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
@ -264,7 +273,7 @@
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
@ -273,7 +282,7 @@
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
"Description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
@ -309,7 +318,7 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
@ -318,7 +327,7 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
@ -327,7 +336,16 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's \"primary\" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* \nThe relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (\"no measures\") rises at 45 or more in the \"7 days average\" version of the graph.\nIf OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of \"no measures for workplace closures.\" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.\n*For this question, \"no measures for workplace closures\" will correspond to a 0 for the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Stars": "★★★☆☆"

17608
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17
data/omen-questions.csv
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@ -1,10 +1,11 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"98.8630%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"10.8673%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40.1381%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"99%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"6%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x4a7ccee82790339756a044d7815126f242ab18cd","Omen",true,"50%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen",false,"none","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50.0000%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85.1032%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479","Omen",true,"99.0000%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40.0000%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"10.9519%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdad7da2870846ed40a48cc5485b10d56612a990e","Omen",true,"50%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"10%","",,"★☆☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d Omen true 98.8630% 99% ★☆☆☆☆
3 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de Omen true 10.8673% 6% ★☆☆☆☆
4 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb https://omen.eth.link/#/0x4a7ccee82790339756a044d7815126f242ab18cd Omen true 40.1381% 50% ★☆☆☆☆
5 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb Omen true 40% ★☆☆☆☆
6 When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905 Omen false none ★☆☆☆☆
7 Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c Omen true 50.0000% 50% ★☆☆☆☆
8 Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b Omen true 85.1032% 85% ★☆☆☆☆
9 What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)? Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479 https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdad7da2870846ed40a48cc5485b10d56612a990e Omen true 99.0000% 50% ★☆☆☆☆
10 Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2 Omen true 40.0000% 40% ★☆☆☆☆
11 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632 Omen true 10.9519% 10% ★☆☆☆☆

45
data/omen-questions.json
View File

@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
"0.9886301130345439673746235229155343",
"0.01136988696545603262537647708446573"
],
"Percentage": "98.8630%",
"Percentage": "99%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -18,10 +18,23 @@
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.1086728608079395832263016792869373",
"0.8913271391920604167736983207130627"
"0.05619249869291096914111418771235427",
"0.9438075013070890308588858122876457"
],
"Percentage": "10.8673%",
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x4a7ccee82790339756a044d7815126f242ab18cd",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.5",
"0.5"
],
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -34,7 +47,7 @@
"0.4013812037799882539689575072876216",
"0.5986187962200117460310424927123784"
],
"Percentage": "40.1381%",
"Percentage": "40%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -63,7 +76,7 @@
"0.5",
"0.5"
],
"Percentage": "50.0000%",
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -76,20 +89,20 @@
"0.8510322451182968590048070388296782",
"0.1489677548817031409951929611703218"
],
"Percentage": "85.1032%",
"Percentage": "85%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479",
"Title": "Will GIP-5 pass? (GIP-5: Remove Gnosis Impact from the GnosisDAO Governance Process)",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdad7da2870846ed40a48cc5485b10d56612a990e",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.9900000000000001225706801609666705",
"0.00999999999999987742931983903332947"
"0.5",
"0.5"
],
"Percentage": "99.0000%",
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -102,7 +115,7 @@
"0.399999999999999999999976",
"0.600000000000000000000024"
],
"Percentage": "40.0000%",
"Percentage": "40%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
},
@ -112,10 +125,10 @@
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.1095186501966299113862061692110534",
"0.8904813498033700886137938307889466"
"0.09881741545424704776990330647246071",
"0.9011825845457529522300966935275393"
],
"Percentage": "10.9519%",
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★☆☆☆☆"
}

65
data/polymarket-questions.csv
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@ -1,49 +1,38 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"9.92%","This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1351","★★☆☆☆"
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"13.48%","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.","139","★★☆☆☆"
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).","803","★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer"" will resolve to “Yes"". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more"" will resolve to “Yes"". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes"".
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"51%","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative.
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","1940","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1","PolyMarket",true,"86%","This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. ","654","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"90%","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","610","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"98%","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)","3984","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5%","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote.","537","★★☆☆☆"
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"63.00%","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2455","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 165 Gwei on February 16?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-165-gwei-on-february-16","PolyMarket",true,"10%","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 165 Gwei on February 16, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 165 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 165 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of February 16, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","487","★★☆☆☆"
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4%","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.
","1211","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Suns or the Pelicans win their February 3rd matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-suns-or-the-pelicans-win-their-february-3rd-matchup","PolyMarket",true,"0.05%","This is a market on which team will win the February 3rd, 2021 matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.","499","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"95.49%","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)","3583","★★☆☆☆"
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"45.52%","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1592","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"33.44%","This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa.
Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to ""Yes"".","1839","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"96%","This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and ""No"" otherwise.
The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.","367","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"91.84%","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","499","★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket",true,"61.73%","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","168","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"6.47%","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","109","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021","PolyMarket",true,"37%","This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and ""No"" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume.","149","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20%","This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","56","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"35%","This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","167","★★☆☆☆"
"How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1620","★★☆☆☆"
"How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to ""less than 6.5 million"". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the ""reader"" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3281","★★☆☆☆"
"Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55","PolyMarket",true,"61.53%","This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match.
Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to ""Chiefs vs Team 2"", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret.
Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from ""Yes | No"" to ""Chiefs | Bucs"".","715","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"6.98%","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.
","659","★★☆☆☆"
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"22.33%","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.
Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to ""Yes"".","1224","★★☆☆☆"
"Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1","PolyMarket",true,"17.90%","This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","149","★★☆☆☆"
"Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"37.13%","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","143","★★☆☆☆"
"How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 10, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-10-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 10, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.
At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,453 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled ""@MCuban"" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled ""@MCuban"" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
Neither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to ""Yes"". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","240","★★☆☆☆"
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.42%","This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve ""Yes"" if the aforementioned conditions are met and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","178","★★☆☆☆"
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","739","★★☆☆☆"
"Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1","PolyMarket",true,"50%","This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Djokovic wins, and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. ","223","★★☆☆☆"
"Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"41%","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1089","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Rockets or the Wizards win their February 15th matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-rockets-or-the-wizards-win-their-february-15th-matchup","PolyMarket",true,"100%","This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Washington Wizards. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.
","366","★★☆☆☆"
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"11%","This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve ""Yes"" if the aforementioned conditions are met and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","240","★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Jazz or the 76ers win their February 15h matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-jazz-or-the-76ers-win-their-february-15h-matchup","PolyMarket",true,"0%","This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia 76ers. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.
","505","★★☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021? Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket true 9.92% 51% This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. 1351 1940 ★★☆☆☆
Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021 PolyMarket true 13.48% This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021. 139 ★★☆☆☆
Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 PolyMarket false none This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). 803 ★★☆☆☆
How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1 PolyMarket false none This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer" will resolve to “Yes". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more" will resolve to “Yes". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative. Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote. 537 ★★☆☆☆
3 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1 PolyMarket true 63.00% 86% This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. 1211 654 ★★☆☆☆
4 Will the Suns or the Pelicans win their February 3rd matchup? Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-suns-or-the-pelicans-win-their-february-3rd-matchup https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket true 0.05% 90% This is a market on which team will win the February 3rd, 2021 matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 499 610 ★★☆☆☆
5 Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 98% This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) 3984 ★★☆☆☆
6 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket true 5% This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 2455 ★★☆☆☆
7 Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 165 Gwei on February 16? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-165-gwei-on-february-16 PolyMarket true 10% This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 165 Gwei on February 16, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 165 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 165 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of February 16, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 487 ★★☆☆☆
8 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 PolyMarket true 4% This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". 1839 ★★☆☆☆
9 Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021 PolyMarket true 95.49% 96% This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and "No" otherwise. This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 3583 109 ★★☆☆☆
10 Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021 PolyMarket true 45.52% 37% This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and "No" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume. 1592 149 ★★☆☆☆
11 Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021 PolyMarket true 33.44% 20% This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa. The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization. This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 367 56 ★★☆☆☆
12 Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021 PolyMarket true 35% This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 167 ★★☆☆☆
13 Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021 PolyMarket true false 91.84% none This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. At 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled "@MCuban" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to "Yes". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 499 739 ★★☆☆☆
14 Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open? https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1 PolyMarket true 61.73% 50% This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome. This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Djokovic wins, and "No" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. 168 223 ★★☆☆☆
15 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021 PolyMarket true 6.47% 41% This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1620 1089 ★★☆☆☆
How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021 PolyMarket false none This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to "less than 6.5 million". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the "reader" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 3281 ★★☆☆☆
Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55 PolyMarket true 61.53% This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match. Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret. Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs". 715 ★★☆☆☆
Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021 PolyMarket true 6.98% This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days. 659 ★★☆☆☆
16 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? Will the Rockets or the Wizards win their February 15th matchup? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-rockets-or-the-wizards-win-their-february-15th-matchup PolyMarket true 22.33% 100% This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Washington Wizards. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. 1224 366 ★★☆☆☆
17 Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th? Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1 https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 17.90% 11% This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 149 240 ★★☆☆☆
18 Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021? Will the Jazz or the 76ers win their February 15h matchup? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-jazz-or-the-76ers-win-their-february-15h-matchup PolyMarket true 37.13% 0% This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia 76ers. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. 143 505 ★★☆☆☆
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data/polymarket-questions.json
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[
{
"Title": "Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9.92%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1351",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "13.48%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.",
"# Forecasts": "139",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).",
"# Forecasts": "803",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer\" will resolve to “Yes\". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more\" will resolve to “Yes\". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative.\n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote.",
"# Forecasts": "537",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"title": "Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th",
"address": "0x93A384B3daE1E27DbeCF02673C384a5acB264675",
"description": "This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to \"No\". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e)."
},
{
"Title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "63.00%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\n ",
"# Forecasts": "1211",
"Percentage": "51%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"# Forecasts": "1940",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Suns or the Pelicans win their February 3rd matchup?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-suns-or-the-pelicans-win-their-february-3rd-matchup",
"Title": "Will the US have fewer than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-50-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-march-15-2021-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "0.05%",
"Description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 3rd, 2021 matchup between the Phoenix Suns and the New Orleans Pelicans. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.",
"# Forecasts": "499",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "95.49%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)",
"# Forecasts": "3583",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45.52%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1592",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33.44%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.",
"# Forecasts": "367",
"Percentage": "86%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, with fewer than 50,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 50,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases), the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. ",
"# Forecasts": "654",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -100,19 +24,19 @@
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91.84%",
"Percentage": "90%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "499",
"# Forecasts": "610",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61.73%",
"Description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
"# Forecasts": "168",
"Percentage": "98%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)",
"# Forecasts": "3984",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -120,39 +44,19 @@
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6.47%",
"Percentage": "5%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1620",
"# Forecasts": "2455",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to \"less than 6.5 million\". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the \"reader\" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "3281",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55",
"Title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 165 Gwei on February 16?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-165-gwei-on-february-16",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61.53%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match.\n\nNote: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to \"Chiefs vs Team 2\", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret.\n\nNote 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from \"Yes | No\" to \"Chiefs | Bucs\".",
"# Forecasts": "715",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6.98%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.\n",
"# Forecasts": "659",
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 165 Gwei on February 16, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 165 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 165 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of February 16, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"# Forecasts": "487",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -160,9 +64,19 @@
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "22.33%",
"Percentage": "4%",
"Description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.\n\nClarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
"# Forecasts": "1224",
"# Forecasts": "1839",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-johnson-and-johnson-s-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-march-15-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "96%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Johnson and Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, March 15, 2021, 12:00 pm EST, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "109",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -172,39 +86,73 @@
"description": "This is a scalar market on what Anthony Fantano, aka theneedledrop, will rate Drake’s upcoming album, set to be titled “Certified Lover Boy”, in his Youtube review. The lower bound is 0 and the upper bound is 10. Ratings like “strong”, “light” and other similar words will be interpreted in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). For example, in the case of “a strong 6 to light 7”, the market would resolve to 7, while “a light to decent 6” would resolve to 6.25. A “Not Good” will resolve as 0. Market starts December 7th, 2020, and this market will be based on Drake's next album release after this date, even if it is not titled \"Certified Lover Boy\". In the unlikely event that theneedledrop does not rate Drake's upcoming album, this market will resolve to 5.\n\nAs this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with theneedledrop rating. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC)."
},
{
"Title": "Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1",
"Title": "Will Hashmasks be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-hashmasks-be-the-highest-volume-nft-category-by-7-day-volume-on-february-25-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "17.90%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"Percentage": "37%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether the Hashmasks Non-Fungible Token (NFT) will be the highest volume NFT category by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hashmasks is the highest volume NFT by 7-day volume on February 25, 2021, and \"No\" otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://opensea.io/rankings sorted by 7-day volume.",
"# Forecasts": "149",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the price of Unisocks be above $100,000 on February 28, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-price-of-unisocks-be-above-100000-on-february-28-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Unisocks Edition 0 $SOCKS will be above $100,000 on February 28th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/unisocks. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if SOCKS is trading above $100,000 according to Coingecko on the resolution date, and “No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "56",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before April 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-april-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "167",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 17, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-17-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 17, 2021 at 3:00pm EST.\n\nAt 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,478 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@MCuban\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "739",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-australian-open-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Novak Djokovic will win the Men's Singles at the Australian Open. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Djokovic wins, and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of any postponement of the Australian Open, this market will not be resolved until the tournament takes place to completion. In the event that the tournament is canceled entirely, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source will be https://ausopen.com/. ",
"# Forecasts": "223",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-march-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37.13%",
"Percentage": "41%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "143",
"# Forecasts": "1089",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
"address": "0x361A583ef3A5f41Aa126465387b7f5e978F8A0C1",
"description": "This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC)."
},
{
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @MCuban account on February 10, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mcuban-account-on-february-10-2021",
"Title": "Will the Rockets or the Wizards win their February 15th matchup?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-rockets-or-the-wizards-win-their-february-15th-matchup",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on the number of tweets which will be posted to Mark Cuban's Twitter account prior to the resolution date, February 10, 2021 at 3:00pm EST. \n\nAt 3:00pm EST on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @MCuban, shall exceed 3,453 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @MCuban, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@MCuban\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @MCuban just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Mark Cuban, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @MarkCuban will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "240",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "100%",
"Description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Washington Wizards. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.\n\n",
"# Forecasts": "366",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -212,9 +160,19 @@
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20.42%",
"Percentage": "11%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the aforementioned conditions are met and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"# Forecasts": "178",
"# Forecasts": "240",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Jazz or the 76ers win their February 15h matchup?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-jazz-or-the-76ers-win-their-february-15h-matchup",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "0%",
"Description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 15th, 2021 matchup between the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia 76ers. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.\n",
"# Forecasts": "505",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
}
]

439
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,32 +1,8 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: N/A
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"1%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021.
During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).
A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any ""blanket"" self-pardon.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
@ -51,12 +27,7 @@ Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident co
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"9%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"6%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
@ -65,15 +36,27 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"24%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
@ -86,30 +69,54 @@ Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as cir
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:13 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:14 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:21 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"21%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
@ -117,37 +124,67 @@ The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments,
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:23 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"51%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"50%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -157,10 +194,16 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
@ -177,17 +220,29 @@ For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the At
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"30%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"32%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -206,7 +261,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"96%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"98%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
@ -214,17 +269,17 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"41%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"43%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"20%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"17%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"26%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"24%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
@ -236,15 +291,15 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"11%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"15%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"37%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"47%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020.
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -252,10 +307,12 @@ End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)
Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"26%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"18%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
@ -268,7 +325,7 @@ Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopp
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"71%","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"69%","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
@ -278,7 +335,7 @@ PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all informati
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"66%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"79%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
@ -291,91 +348,26 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"90%","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"95%","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.
Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""50 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""67 or more"" shall resolve to Yes.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"18%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"93%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"71%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"6%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"91%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"24%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET)
Note: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"11%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"4%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -388,32 +380,20 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"16%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"4%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"5%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"85%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"17%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"6%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"80%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
@ -421,20 +401,14 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"80%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"84%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"10%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"8%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"68%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -450,16 +424,10 @@ End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"6%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"8%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""58 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""83 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
@ -487,45 +455,20 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28","PredictIt",true,"15%","This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes.
A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"98%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.
"Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"99%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"3%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"1%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Brad Raffensperger testify publicly in Trump's Senate trial by Feb. 28?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7098/Will-Brad-Raffensperger-testify-publicly-in-Trump's-Senate-trial-by-Feb-28","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Brad Raffensperger testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Senate in any trial on any article of impeachment of former President Donald Trump.
Live testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shown to the Senate shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Testimony before a Congressional committee or subcommittee shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
Should Mr. Raffensperger appear at any such trial, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Raffensperger submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt",true,"25%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
"Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1","PredictIt",true,"9%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"When will the Senate vote on whether to convict Donald Trump?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7100/When-will-the-Senate-vote-on-whether-to-convict-Donald-Trump","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the date upon which the Senate votes on whether to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his Senate impeachment trial.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
Should no such vote commence before the End Date, whether because no such trial has begun, remains ongoing upon that date, or has been abandoned without a vote on conviction, the contract identifying the range ""February 20 or later"" shall resolve to Yes.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/20/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Cardona be confirmed to position of Secretary of Education in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""64 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""89 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
@ -533,17 +476,133 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Votes to remove Marjorie Taylor Greene from House committees by Feb. 12?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7102/Votes-to-remove-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-from-House-committees-by-Feb-12","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/03/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of a resolution with the effect to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) from the House of Representatives standing committees on the Budget and on Education & Labor.
A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.
Should no such vote commence before the End Date, the contract identifying the range ""212 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the rejection of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""212 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the passage of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""245 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one vote on a qualifying resolution be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
"Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL","PredictIt",true,"58%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/12/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/03/2021 11:21 PM (ET)
NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE VOTE ON REMOVAL.
Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt",true,"80%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""82 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt",true,"58%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.
The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""49 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""74 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",,"★★☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt false none Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: N/A ★★☆☆☆
Will Trump pardon himself in his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term PredictIt true 1% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021. During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”). A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any "blanket" self-pardon. ★★☆☆☆
Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District PredictIt false none Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market. ★★☆☆☆
Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt true 9% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt true 24% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
2 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1? Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
3 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1? Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
4 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1? Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
5 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1? Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt true 21% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt true 51% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. ★★☆☆☆
6 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1? How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
7 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt false true none 6% The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
8 Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 1% none This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
27 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
28 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false true none 1% The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
29 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt true 71% 1% This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
30 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. ★★☆☆☆
Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt true 66% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days PredictIt true 7% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt true 90% This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
31 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. ★★☆☆☆
32 How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt false true none 32% The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below. Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes. This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
33 Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt true false 18% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
36 Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt true 71% 98% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
37 Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt true 9% 99% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
38 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt false true none 43% The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
39 Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt true 6% 17% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
40 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt true 24% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
41 Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt true false 91% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
42 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
43 Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 9% 15% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
44 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 47% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
45 Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 PredictIt false none Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules ★★☆☆☆
46 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 18% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
47 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt false none The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
48 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
49 Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt true 24% 69% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET) Note: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
50 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt true false 11% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
51 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt true 79% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
52 How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary? Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
53 Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt true false 16% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
54 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt true 7% 95% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
55 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
56 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
57 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
58 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
59 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt true 4% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
60 Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary PredictIt true false 85% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
61 Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt true 17% 4% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
62 Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt true 80% 5% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
69 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
70 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt true 6% 7% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
71 Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15 PredictIt true false 8% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "58 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "83 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
72 How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15? How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "58 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "83 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
73 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt true 31% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
74 How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1? How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
75 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1 PredictIt true 31% 99% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
76 How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31? Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1 PredictIt false true none 1% The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
77 Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 PredictIt true 9% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
78 How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Cardona be confirmed to position of Secretary of Education in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "64 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "89 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
79 Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL PredictIt true 58% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
80 Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
81 Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
82 Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28? Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt true false 15% none This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes. A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
83 Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1? Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia PredictIt true false 98% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
84 How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
85 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1? Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt true false 3% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are "Xi", "Suga", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. ★★☆☆☆
86 How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31? Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021 PredictIt false true none 80% The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
87 Will Brad Raffensperger testify publicly in Trump's Senate trial by Feb. 28? Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7098/Will-Brad-Raffensperger-testify-publicly-in-Trump's-Senate-trial-by-Feb-28 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona PredictIt true false 7% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Brad Raffensperger testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Senate in any trial on any article of impeachment of former President Donald Trump. Live testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shown to the Senate shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Testimony before a Congressional committee or subcommittee shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Should Mr. Raffensperger appear at any such trial, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Raffensperger submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
88 How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
89 How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "82 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
90 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
91 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
92 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 PredictIt true 58% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
93 Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against PredictIt true false 25% none This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. ★★☆☆☆
94 When will the Senate vote on whether to convict Donald Trump? Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7100/When-will-the-Senate-vote-on-whether-to-convict-Donald-Trump https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the date upon which the Senate votes on whether to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his Senate impeachment trial. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. Should no such vote commence before the End Date, whether because no such trial has begun, remains ongoing upon that date, or has been abandoned without a vote on conviction, the contract identifying the range "February 20 or later" shall resolve to Yes. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/20/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
95 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
96 How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31? How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Miguel Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Cardona be confirmed to position of Secretary of Education in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "64 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "89 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Cardona to the position of Secretary of Education be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ★★☆☆☆
97 Votes to remove Marjorie Taylor Greene from House committees by Feb. 12? Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7102/Votes-to-remove-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-from-House-committees-by-Feb-12 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt false none Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/03/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of a resolution with the effect to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) from the House of Representatives standing committees on the Budget and on Education & Labor. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. Should no such vote commence before the End Date, the contract identifying the range "212 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the rejection of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "212 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the passage of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "245 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one vote on a qualifying resolution be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/12/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/03/2021 11:21 PM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE VOTE ON REMOVAL. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are "Xi" and "Suga", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
98 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
99 How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ★★☆☆☆
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data/predictit-questions.json
View File

@ -1,22 +1,4 @@
[
{
"Title": "Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: N/A\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021.\nDuring his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).\nA self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any \"blanket\" self-pardon.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
@ -26,15 +8,6 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
@ -71,21 +44,12 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.\nDetermination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.\nMembers of the House of Representatives who are \"delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -104,7 +68,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -113,7 +77,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -140,7 +104,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:13 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -149,7 +113,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -158,7 +122,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:14 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -176,7 +140,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:21 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -194,7 +158,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -203,7 +167,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:23 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -212,7 +176,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:19 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -230,7 +194,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:18 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -239,7 +203,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -247,7 +211,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "51%",
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -257,7 +221,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:16 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -293,7 +257,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:15 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -302,7 +266,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:17 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -310,7 +274,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"Percentage": "32%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -346,7 +310,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "96%",
"Percentage": "98%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -364,7 +328,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "41%",
"Percentage": "43%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -373,7 +337,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"Percentage": "17%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -382,7 +346,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"Percentage": "24%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -409,7 +373,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "11%",
"Percentage": "15%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -418,7 +382,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37%",
"Percentage": "47%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -428,7 +392,7 @@
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
@ -436,7 +400,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"Percentage": "18%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -463,7 +427,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"Percentage": "69%",
"Description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -481,7 +445,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "66%",
"Percentage": "79%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -503,21 +467,12 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"Percentage": "95%",
"Description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -530,33 +485,6 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.\nShould no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"50 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"67 or more\" shall resolve to Yes.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "18%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "93%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
@ -566,24 +494,6 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
@ -593,24 +503,6 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
@ -620,30 +512,12 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "24%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET)\nNote: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "11%",
"Percentage": "4%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -661,7 +535,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%",
"Percentage": "4%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -670,37 +544,19 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%",
"Percentage": "5%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "17%",
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary",
@ -715,7 +571,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"Percentage": "84%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -724,19 +580,10 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"Percentage": "8%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "68%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
@ -769,19 +616,10 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15",
@ -818,21 +656,12 @@
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes.\nA vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "98%",
"Percentage": "99%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
@ -841,46 +670,19 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3%",
"Percentage": "1%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Brad Raffensperger testify publicly in Trump's Senate trial by Feb. 28?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7098/Will-Brad-Raffensperger-testify-publicly-in-Trump's-Senate-trial-by-Feb-28",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Brad Raffensperger testifies publicly, under subpoena or otherwise, by the End Date listed below, before the Senate in any trial on any article of impeachment of former President Donald Trump.\nLive testimony given remotely shall be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Videotaped testimony shown to the Senate shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. Testimony before a Congressional committee or subcommittee shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nShould Mr. Raffensperger appear at any such trial, whether in person or remotely, but answer no substantive questions asked by any questioner, this market shall resolve as No, whether or not Mr. Raffensperger submits a sworn statement or reads all or part of such statement aloud during the hearing or trial.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"Percentage": "9%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below.\nA vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "When will the Senate vote on whether to convict Donald Trump?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7100/When-will-the-Senate-vote-on-whether-to-convict-Donald-Trump",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the date upon which the Senate votes on whether to convict former President Donald J. Trump in his Senate impeachment trial.\nA vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date.\nShould no such vote commence before the End Date, whether because no such trial has begun, remains ongoing upon that date, or has been abandoned without a vote on conviction, the contract identifying the range \"February 20 or later\" shall resolve to Yes.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/20/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Miguel Cardona as Education Secretary by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7101/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Miguel-Cardona-as-Education-Secretary-by-3-31",
@ -891,12 +693,192 @@
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Votes to remove Marjorie Taylor Greene from House committees by Feb. 12?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7102/Votes-to-remove-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-from-House-committees-by-Feb-12",
"Title": "Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "58%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 5th District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7104/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-5th-District",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/03/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of a resolution with the effect to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) from the House of Representatives standing committees on the Budget and on Education & Labor.\nA vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. \nShould no such vote commence before the End Date, the contract identifying the range \"212 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the rejection of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"212 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the passage of a qualifying resolution via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"245 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one vote on a qualifying resolution be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/12/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/03/2021 11:21 PM (ET)\nNOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE VOTE ON REMOVAL.\nOffers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.\n",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Michael Regan as EPA Administrator by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7108/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Michael-Regan-as-EPA-Administrator-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Michael Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Regan be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Regan to the position of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"82 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "58%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nThis market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure.\nThe results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
}
]

105
data/smarkets-questions.csv Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts","Stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts to be added on request",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Gender of next Conservative leader (Male)","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets",true,"80%","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister (2021)","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets",true,"6%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets",true,"6%","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts to be added on request",,"★★☆☆☆"
"NY-22 Congressional District Winner (Democratic)","https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race","Smarkets",true,"36%","Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Year of next General Election","https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Year of next Scottish referendum","https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Cabinet Member to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts to be added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next European leader to leave office","https://smarkets.com/event/41616043/politics/europe/leaders/next-european-leader-to-leave-office","Smarkets",false,"none","Which of the five listed European leaders will leave office first?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 (No)","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets",true,"79%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets",false,"none","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets",false,"none","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Macron first round vote share (Under 25%)","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets",true,"50%","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets",false,"none","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
Other candidates available on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Gender of the next Labour leader (Female)","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets",true,"45%","The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet? (Dominic Raab)","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets",true,"59%","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets",false,"none","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets",true,"71%","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner (Ben Houchen)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets",true,"28%","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets",false,"none","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Local elections highest vote share (Conservative)","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets",true,"60%","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts to be added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets",true,"87%","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Scottish First Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next WTO Director General after Roberto Azevêdo (Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala)","https://smarkets.com/event/41705967/politics/world/world-trade-organisation/next-wto-director-general","Smarkets",true,"50%","Contracts to be added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"French Presidential election to happen before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election","Smarkets",true,"90%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?","https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge","Smarkets",true,"9%","Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken","https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken","Smarkets",true,"90%","Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021","Smarkets",true,"80%","Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets",true,"12%","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) (For independence)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets",true,"55%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets",true,"26%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets",false,"none","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Date of next Japanese general election (Before 22 October 2021)","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets",true,"40%","When will the next Japanese general election take place?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets",true,"54%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets",true,"58%","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will the Brexit/Reform Party reach 10% in a YouGov poll?","https://smarkets.com/event/41944336/politics/uk/nigel-farage/brexit-reform-party-to-poll-10","Smarkets",true,"89%","Will the Brexit Party or Reform Party reach 10% in a UK voting intention poll conducted by YouGov by 23 March 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets",true,"10%","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election (Republican)","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets",true,"43%","Contracts available on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets",true,"40%","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on 1st March 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947815/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/senate-confirmed-treasury-secretary-on-1st-march-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts added on request",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Senate-confirmed Attorney General on 1st March 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947823/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/attorney-general","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on the 15th February 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41947824/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/secretary-of-state","Smarkets",false,"none","Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets",false,"none","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets",false,"none","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets",false,"none","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets",false,"none","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets",false,"none","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets",true,"5%","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets",true,"34%","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats (0–2)","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets",true,"75%","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets",false,"none","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets",false,"none","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets",true,"88%","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets",true,"70%","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner (Tracy Brabin)","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets",true,"87%","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner (SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets",true,"84%","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election","https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Catalan election: pro-independence seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42022502/politics/europe/spain/2021-catalan-regional-election","Smarkets",false,"none","How many seats will pro-Catalan independence parties win in the 2021 Catalan regional election? See market rules for more details.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets",false,"none","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets",true,"28%","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"London elections: In-person voting (In-person and postal voting)","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets",true,"96%","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets",true,"92%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Senate to convict Donald Trump","https://smarkets.com/event/42036357/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-to-convict-trump","Smarkets",true,"97%","Will the US Senate vote to convict Donald Trump during his impeachment trial? (2/3 of those present required to vote yes)",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Senate votes for Trump conviction","https://smarkets.com/event/42036624/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-votes-for-trump-conviction","Smarkets",false,"none","How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Next Scottish Labour leader","https://smarkets.com/event/42036626/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-scottish-labour-leader","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will be the next permanent leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Candidates added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets",true,"10%","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Mitch McConnell to vote to convict Trump","https://smarkets.com/event/42038135/politics/us/donald-trump/mitch-mcconnell-to-vote-to-convict-trump","Smarkets",true,"85%","Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate impeachment trial?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets",true,"82%","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets",true,"50%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2022 House of Representatives control (Democratic)","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets",true,"64%","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets",true,"59%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"John Thune vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048916/politics/us/donald-trump/john-thune-to-vote-to-convict","Smarkets",true,"10%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/42048943/politics/us/donald-trump/susan-collins-to-vote-to-convict-trump","Smarkets",true,"15%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2022 Senate control (Democratic)","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets",true,"42%","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets",true,"61%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets",false,"none","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets",true,"46%","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Dutch election: Most seats (VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy))","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets",true,"2%","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets",false,"none","",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets",true,"92%","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets",false,"none","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats (8 or fewer)","https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats","Smarkets",true,"50%","How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,"★★☆☆☆"
"Republican votes for Trump conviction","https://smarkets.com/event/42073838/politics/us/donald-trump/republican-votes-for-trump-conviction","Smarkets",false,"none","How many Republican senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate trial?",,"★★☆☆☆"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts Stars
2 Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets false none Contracts to be added on request ★★☆☆☆
3 Gender of next Conservative leader (Male) https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets true 80% What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson? ★★☆☆☆
4 Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019 Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
5 Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
6 Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister (2021) https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets true 6% ★★☆☆☆
7 Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson Smarkets true 6% With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ★★☆☆☆
8 Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm Smarkets false none Contracts to be added on request ★★☆☆☆
9 NY-22 Congressional District Winner (Democratic) https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race Smarkets true 36% Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request. ★★☆☆☆
10 Year of next General Election https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020 Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
11 Year of next Scottish referendum https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
12 Next Cabinet Member to leave https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
13 Party to get the most seats https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party Smarkets false none Contracts to be added on request. ★★☆☆☆
14 Next European leader to leave office https://smarkets.com/event/41616043/politics/europe/leaders/next-european-leader-to-leave-office Smarkets false none Which of the five listed European leaders will leave office first? ★★☆☆☆
15 USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 (No) https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal Smarkets true 79% ★★☆☆☆
16 Year of next General Election in Hungary https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election Smarkets false none The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it? ★★☆☆☆
17 Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021 Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
18 Winner of the 2022 French presidential election https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets false none Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election? ★★☆☆☆
19 Macron first round vote share (Under 25%) https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets true 50% What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election? ★★☆☆☆
20 Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets false none Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request. ★★☆☆☆
21 Gender of the next Labour leader (Female) https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets true 45% The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first? ★★☆☆☆
22 Year of next General Election to take place in Israel https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
23 First Minister to leave the Cabinet? (Dominic Raab) https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go Smarkets true 59% With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ★★☆☆☆
24 Keir Starmer exit date https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date Smarkets false none When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party? ★★☆☆☆
25 2021 London mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election Smarkets false none Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
26 Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences Smarkets true 71% Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? ★★☆☆☆
27 2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets false none Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
28 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner (Ben Houchen) https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets true 28% Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
29 Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021 Smarkets false none Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
30 Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp Smarkets false none Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
31 Local elections highest vote share (Conservative) https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share Smarkets true 60% Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections? ★★☆☆☆
32 Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader Smarkets false none Contracts to be added on request. ★★☆☆☆
33 Irish reunification referendum before 2023 https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023 Smarkets true 87% Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022? ★★☆☆☆
34 Next Scottish First Minister https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister Smarkets false none Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request. ★★☆☆☆
35 Next WTO Director General after Roberto Azevêdo (Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala) https://smarkets.com/event/41705967/politics/world/world-trade-organisation/next-wto-director-general Smarkets true 50% Contracts to be added on request. ★★☆☆☆
36 French Presidential election to happen before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election Smarkets true 90% ★★☆☆☆
37 Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge? https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge Smarkets true 9% Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election? ★★☆☆☆
38 UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken Smarkets true 90% Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021? ★★☆☆☆
39 Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021 Smarkets true 80% Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022? ★★☆☆☆
40 Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022 Smarkets true 12% Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022? ★★☆☆☆
41 Next Fianna Fáil leader https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin Smarkets false none Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
42 Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) (For independence) https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref Smarkets true 55% ★★☆☆☆
43 Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election? https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority Smarkets true 26% ★★☆☆☆
44 Next general election overall majority https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority Smarkets false none Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
45 Date of next Japanese general election (Before 22 October 2021) https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election Smarkets true 40% When will the next Japanese general election take place? ★★☆☆☆
46 Belarus to have a General Election in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election Smarkets true 54% ★★☆☆☆
47 Joe Biden to serve full term https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term Smarkets true 58% Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details. ★★☆☆☆
48 2024 Democratic presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee Smarkets false none Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
49 2024 Republican presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee Smarkets false none Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
50 2024 US presidential winner https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner Smarkets false none Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request. ★★☆☆☆
51 Will the Brexit/Reform Party reach 10% in a YouGov poll? https://smarkets.com/event/41944336/politics/uk/nigel-farage/brexit-reform-party-to-poll-10 Smarkets true 89% Will the Brexit Party or Reform Party reach 10% in a UK voting intention poll conducted by YouGov by 23 March 2021? ★★☆☆☆
52 2021 London mayoral election second place https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place Smarkets false none Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. ★★☆☆☆
53 Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat Smarkets true 10% Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? ★★☆☆☆
54 Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election (Republican) https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election Smarkets true 43% Contracts available on request. ★★☆☆☆
55 London Assembly: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority Smarkets true 40% Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election? ★★☆☆☆
56 Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on 1st March 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41947815/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/senate-confirmed-treasury-secretary-on-1st-march-2021 Smarkets false none Contracts added on request ★★☆☆☆
57 Senate-confirmed Attorney General on 1st March 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41947823/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/attorney-general Smarkets false none Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
58 Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on the 15th February 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41947824/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/secretary-of-state Smarkets false none Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
59 How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021 Smarkets false none How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon? ★★☆☆☆
60 2021 Norwegian election: Most votes https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election Smarkets false none Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets) ★★☆☆☆
61 2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party Smarkets false none Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request. ★★☆☆☆
62 2021 Dutch election: PVV seats https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats Smarkets false none How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election? ★★☆☆☆
63 2021 Dutch election: Government seats https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats Smarkets false none How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election? ★★☆☆☆
64 2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party Smarkets false none Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party? ★★☆☆☆
65 Brexit Party to control any council https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council Smarkets true 5% Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? ★★☆☆☆
66 Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets true 34% Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? ★★☆☆☆
67 London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats (0–2) https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats Smarkets true 75% How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election? ★★☆☆☆
68 Joe Biden's first international visit https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit Smarkets false none Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States? ★★☆☆☆
69 Biden approval on day 100 https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100 Smarkets false none What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency? ★★☆☆☆
70 Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post Smarkets true 88% Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021? ★★☆☆☆
71 Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary Smarkets true 70% Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021? ★★☆☆☆
72 Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
73 2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner (Tracy Brabin) https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election Smarkets true 87% Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
74 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner (SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election Smarkets true 84% Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request. ★★☆☆☆
75 Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021 Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
76 2021 Catalan election: pro-independence seats https://smarkets.com/event/42022502/politics/europe/spain/2021-catalan-regional-election Smarkets false none How many seats will pro-Catalan independence parties win in the 2021 Catalan regional election? See market rules for more details. ★★☆☆☆
77 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share Smarkets false none What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? ★★☆☆☆
78 Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July? https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july Smarkets true 28% Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021? ★★☆☆☆
79 London elections: In-person voting (In-person and postal voting) https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting Smarkets true 96% Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only? ★★☆☆☆
80 London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead Smarkets true 92% ★★☆☆☆
81 Senate to convict Donald Trump https://smarkets.com/event/42036357/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-to-convict-trump Smarkets true 97% Will the US Senate vote to convict Donald Trump during his impeachment trial? (2/3 of those present required to vote yes) ★★☆☆☆
82 Senate votes for Trump conviction https://smarkets.com/event/42036624/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-votes-for-trump-conviction Smarkets false none How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial? ★★☆☆☆
83 Next Scottish Labour leader https://smarkets.com/event/42036626/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-scottish-labour-leader Smarkets false none Who will be the next permanent leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Candidates added on request. ★★☆☆☆
84 $2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days Smarkets true 10% Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency? ★★☆☆☆
85 Mitch McConnell to vote to convict Trump https://smarkets.com/event/42038135/politics/us/donald-trump/mitch-mcconnell-to-vote-to-convict-trump Smarkets true 85% Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate impeachment trial? ★★☆☆☆
86 New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021 Smarkets false none Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request. ★★☆☆☆
87 Trump to create new political party https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party Smarkets true 82% Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021? ★★☆☆☆
88 Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
89 Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr Smarkets true 50% ★★☆☆☆
90 2022 House of Representatives control (Democratic) https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control Smarkets true 64% Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections? ★★☆☆☆
91 President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq Smarkets true 59% ★★☆☆☆
92 John Thune vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048916/politics/us/donald-trump/john-thune-to-vote-to-convict Smarkets true 10% ★★☆☆☆
93 Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/42048943/politics/us/donald-trump/susan-collins-to-vote-to-convict-trump Smarkets true 15% ★★☆☆☆
94 2022 Senate control (Democratic) https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control Smarkets true 42% Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? ★★☆☆☆
95 Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy Smarkets true 61% ★★☆☆☆
96 2022 House and Senate control https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control Smarkets false none Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections? ★★☆☆☆
97 Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman Smarkets true 46% ★★☆☆☆
98 2021 Dutch election: Most seats (VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)) https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats Smarkets true 2% Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election? ★★☆☆☆
99 Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure) https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout Smarkets false none ★★☆☆☆
100 Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress Smarkets true 92% Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021? ★★☆☆☆
101 2021 Israeli election: Likud seats https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats Smarkets false none How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election? ★★☆☆☆
102 2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats (8 or fewer) https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats Smarkets true 50% How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election? ★★☆☆☆
103 Republican votes for Trump conviction https://smarkets.com/event/42073838/politics/us/donald-trump/republican-votes-for-trump-conviction Smarkets false none How many Republican senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate trial? ★★☆☆☆

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[
{
"Title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Gender of next Conservative leader (Male)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"Description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister (2021)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts to be added on request",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "NY-22 Congressional District Winner (Democratic)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/32279294/politics/us/2020-house-representatives-results/new-york-22-congressional-district-race",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "36%",
"Description": "Which party will win in New York's 22nd Congressional District in the 2020 House of Representatives Election? Contracts to be added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Year of next General Election",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Year of next Scottish referendum",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Party to get the most seats",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next European leader to leave office",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616043/politics/europe/leaders/next-european-leader-to-leave-office",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which of the five listed European leaders will leave office first?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 (No)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Macron first round vote share (Under 25%)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Gender of the next Labour leader (Female)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45%",
"Description": "The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Year of next General Election to take place in Israel",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "First Minister to leave the Cabinet? (Dominic Raab)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59%",
"Description": "With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Keir Starmer exit date",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"Description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner (Ben Houchen)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "28%",
"Description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Local elections highest vote share (Conservative)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"Description": "Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Irish reunification referendum before 2023",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "87%",
"Description": "Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Scottish First Minister",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next WTO Director General after Roberto Azevêdo (Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41705967/politics/world/world-trade-organisation/next-wto-director-general",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "French Presidential election to happen before 2022",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"Description": "Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"Description": "Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"Description": "Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%",
"Description": "Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Fianna Fáil leader",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) (For independence)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next general election overall majority",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Date of next Japanese general election (Before 22 October 2021)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"Description": "When will the next Japanese general election take place?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Joe Biden to serve full term",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "58%",
"Description": "Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2024 Democratic presidential nominee",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2024 Republican presidential nominee",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2024 US presidential winner",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Brexit/Reform Party reach 10% in a YouGov poll?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944336/politics/uk/nigel-farage/brexit-reform-party-to-poll-10",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "89%",
"Description": "Will the Brexit Party or Reform Party reach 10% in a UK voting intention poll conducted by YouGov by 23 March 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 London mayoral election second place",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election (Republican)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "43%",
"Description": "Contracts available on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "London Assembly: Labour majority",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"Description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on 1st March 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947815/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/senate-confirmed-treasury-secretary-on-1st-march-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts added on request",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Senate-confirmed Attorney General on 1st March 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947823/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/attorney-general",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on the 15th February 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947824/politics/us/biden-s-first-cabinet/secretary-of-state",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Norwegian election: Most votes",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Dutch election: PVV seats",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Dutch election: Government seats",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"Description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "34%",
"Description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats (0–2)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
"Description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Joe Biden's first international visit",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Biden approval on day 100",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "88%",
"Description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"Description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner (Tracy Brabin)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "87%",
"Description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner (SNP)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "84%",
"Description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Catalan election: pro-independence seats",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022502/politics/europe/spain/2021-catalan-regional-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many seats will pro-Catalan independence parties win in the 2021 Catalan regional election? See market rules for more details.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "28%",
"Description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "London elections: In-person voting (In-person and postal voting)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "96%",
"Description": "Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Senate to convict Donald Trump",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42036357/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-to-convict-trump",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "97%",
"Description": "Will the US Senate vote to convict Donald Trump during his impeachment trial? (2/3 of those present required to vote yes)",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Senate votes for Trump conviction",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42036624/politics/us/donald-trump/senate-votes-for-trump-conviction",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his 2021 impeachment trial?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Next Scottish Labour leader",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42036626/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-scottish-labour-leader",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will be the next permanent leader of the Scottish Labour Party? Candidates added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Mitch McConnell to vote to convict Trump",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42038135/politics/us/donald-trump/mitch-mcconnell-to-vote-to-convict-trump",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%",
"Description": "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate impeachment trial?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Trump to create new political party",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "82%",
"Description": "Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2022 House of Representatives control (Democratic)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "64%",
"Description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "John Thune vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048916/politics/us/donald-trump/john-thune-to-vote-to-convict",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by 29th April 2021?",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048943/politics/us/donald-trump/susan-collins-to-vote-to-convict-trump",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2022 Senate control (Democratic)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "42%",
"Description": "Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2022 House and Senate control",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "46%",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Dutch election: Most seats (VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy))",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
"Description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%",
"Description": "Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Israeli election: Likud seats",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "2021 Israeli election: Joint List seats (8 or fewer)",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42067810/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-joint-list-seats",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"Description": "How many seats will the Joint List win in the 2021 Israeli legislative election?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
},
{
"Title": "Republican votes for Trump conviction",
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/42073838/politics/us/donald-trump/republican-votes-for-trump-conviction",
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "How many Republican senators will vote to convict Donald Trump at his Senate trial?",
"Stars": "★★☆☆☆"
}
]

6
src/csetforetell-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Definitions */
@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
if(isbinary){
// Crowd percentage
let htmlElements = response.split("\n")
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("h3"))[0]
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("<h3>"))[0]
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0]
percentage = crowdpercentage
}
@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
let descriptionprocessed5=descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")
let descriptionprocessed6=descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll("&quot;", `"`)
let descriptionprocessed7=descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("&#39;", "'")
let descriptionprocessed8=textVersion(descriptionprocessed7)
let descriptionprocessed8=toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed7)
let description = descriptionprocessed8
// Number of forecasts
let numforecasts = response.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1].split(",")[0]

2
src/elicit-fetch.js
View File

@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ function processArray(arrayQuestions){
"URL": url,
"Platform": "Elicit",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": percentage.toFixed(2) + "%",
"Percentage": percentage.toFixed(0) + "%",
"# Forecasts": numforecasts,
"# Forecasters": numforecasters,
"Stars": getstars(1)

58
src/givewellopenphil-fetch.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from "fs"
import axios from "axios"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Definitions */
let locationData = "./data/"
/* Support functions */
async function fetchPage(url){
let response = await axios({
url: url,
method: 'GET',
headers: ({
'Content-Type': 'text/html',
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
//console.log(response)
return response
}
/* Body */
async function main(){
let rawdata = fs.readFileSync("./data/givewell-urls.txt")
let data = rawdata.toString().split("\n").filter(url => url!="");
console.log(data)
let results = []
for(let url of data){
console.log(url)
let page = await fetchPage(url)
// Title
let titleraw = page.split('<meta name="twitter:title" content="')[1]
let title = titleraw.split('" />')[0]
// Description
let internalforecasts = page.split("<h2").filter(section => section.includes("Internal forecast")||section.includes("internal forecast"))
let description = "<h2 "+internalforecasts[1]
let result = {
"Title": title,
"URL": url,
"Platform": "GiveWell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": description,
"Stars": getstars(3),
}
console.log(result)
results.push(result)
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync('./data/givewell-questions.json', string);
}
main()

5
src/goodjudgment-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios"
import fs from "fs"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Definitions */
@ -10,7 +10,6 @@ let endpoints = ["https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "https://goodjudgmen
/* Support functions */
/* Body */
export async function goodjudgment(){
let results = []
for(let endpoint of endpoints){
@ -35,7 +34,7 @@ export async function goodjudgment(){
let descriptionraw = question.split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
//let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.replace(" Examples of Superforecaster commentary in italics", "")
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS")[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.split("\n").filter(string => !string.includes("Examples of Superforecaster"))
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.join("\n")
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replace("AT A GLANCE:\n", "")

8
src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
/* Definitions */
let htmlEndPoint = 'https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page='
@ -59,15 +59,17 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
if(isbinary){
// Crowd percentage
let htmlElements = response.split("\n")
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("h3"))[0]
let h3Element = htmlElements.filter(str => str.includes("<h3>"))[0]
console.log(h3Element)
let crowdpercentage = h3Element.split(">")[1].split("<")[0]
percentage = crowdpercentage
console.log(percentage)
}
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(`<div id="question-background" class="collapse smb">`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`</div>`)[0]
let descriptionprocessed2= textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed2= toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.split("\n")
.filter(string => !string.includes("Confused? Check our"))
.join("\n")

12
src/hypermind-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Definitions */
@ -101,14 +101,16 @@ export async function hypermind(){
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll("<BR>", "\n")
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("%%en:", "")
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replace(`Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100<sup>ℍ</sup>, while the others will be worthless (0<sup>ℍ</sup>).<p>`, "")
let descriptionprocessed5 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed4)
let descriptionprocessed5 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed4)
let description = descriptionprocessed5
let percentage = (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(0) +"%" : "none"
return ({
Title: res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
URL: "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list="+slug,
Platform: "Hypermind",
"Binary question?" : (res.otcms.length==2),
"Percentage": (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(2) +"%" : "none",
"Percentage": percentage,
"Description": description,
"Stars": getstars(3)
})
@ -123,7 +125,7 @@ export async function hypermind(){
let results2processed = results2.map(res => {
//console.log(res.props.details)
let descriptionraw = res.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed1 = toMarkdown(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.split("![image]")[0]
let description = descriptionprocessed2
//console.log(description)
@ -145,7 +147,7 @@ export async function hypermind(){
// console.log(results3)
let results3processed = results3.map(res => {
let descriptionraw = res.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed1 = toMarkdown(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.split("![image]")[0]
let description = descriptionprocessed2
return({

21
src/index.js
View File

@ -12,12 +12,13 @@ import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js"
import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js"
import {omen} from "./omen-fetch.js"
import {hypermind} from "./hypermind-fetch.js"
import {smarkets} from "./smarkets-fetch.js"
/* Definitions */
let opts = {}
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind"]
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets"]
let suffix = "-questions"
let locationData = "./data/"
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
@ -32,7 +33,7 @@ let getJSON = (set) => {
}
let csvfromjson = (json) => json2csvParser.parse(json)
let writefile = (data, set, filetype = ".csv") => {
let writefile = (data, set, suffix, filetype = ".csv") => {
fs.writeFileSync(locationData + set + suffix + filetype, data)
}
@ -41,13 +42,13 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = () => {
for(let set of sets){
let json = getJSON(set)
let csv = csvfromjson(json)
writefile(csv, set)
writefile(csv, set, suffix)
merged = merged.concat(json)
//console.log(merged)
}
writefile(JSON.stringify(merged, null, 2), "merged", ".json")
writefile(JSON.stringify(merged, null, 2), "metaforecasts", "", ".json")
let mergedcsv = csvfromjson(merged)
writefile(mergedcsv, "merged")
writefile(mergedcsv, "metaforecasts", "")
console.log("Done")
}
@ -94,9 +95,12 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
predictit()
break;
case 10:
coverttocsvandmerge()
smarkets()
break;
case 11:
coverttocsvandmerge()
break;
case 12:
await csetforetell()
await elicit()
await goodjudgment()
@ -125,7 +129,8 @@ let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
[7]: Download predictions from omen
[8]: Download predictions from polymarket
[9]: Download predictions from predictit
[10]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires previous steps)
[11]: All of the above
[10]: Download predictions from smarkets
[11]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires previous steps)
[12]: All of the above
Choose one option, wisely: #`
whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)

39
src/metaculus-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios"
import fs from 'fs'
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Definitions */
@ -22,18 +22,35 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(page=1){
return response
}
async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug){
let response = await axios({
method: 'get',
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug
}).then(response => response.data)
return response
}
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug){
try{
let response = await axios({
method: 'get',
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug
}).then(response => response.data)
return response
}catch(error){
console.log(`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page. Trying again`)
await sleep(10000)
try{
let response = await axios({
method: 'get',
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug
}).then(response => response.data)
return response
}catch(error){
console.log(`We encountered some error when attempting to fetch a metaculus page.`)
console.log("Error", error)
throw "Giving up"
}
}
}
/* Body */
@ -56,18 +73,20 @@ export async function metaculus(){
(now < result.close_time)
){
//console.log(result)
await sleep(1000)
let questionPage = await fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(result.page_url)
let descriptionraw = questionPage.split(`<div class="question__content">`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("</div>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed2 = toMarkdown(descriptionprocessed1)
let description = descriptionprocessed2
let isbinary = result.possibilities.type == "binary"
let percentage = isbinary? ((Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2)*100).toFixed(0)+"%") : "none"
let interestingInfo = ({
"Title": result.title,
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com" + result.page_url,
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary?(Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2)*100+"%"):"none",
"Percentage": percentage,
"Description": description,
"# Forecasts": result.number_of_predictions,
"Stars": result.number_of_predictions > 300? getstars(4):(result.number_of_predictions > 100? getstars(3): getstars(2))

48
src/misc/notes-givewellopenphil-fetch.md Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
## GiveWell
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains givewell.org --follow-tags=a --reject '*.js,*.css,*.ico,*.txt,*.gif,*.jpg,*.jpeg,*.png,*.mp3,*.mp4,*.pdf,*.tgz,*.flv,*.avi,*.mpeg,*.iso,*.xls,*.xlsx,*.csv,*.doc,*.docx,*.mpa,*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.givewell.org
grep -ri "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" * | sed 's/^/https:\/\/www.givewell.org\//' > searchresults.txt
grep -ril "Internal forecast" -E "prediction|Prediction|forecast|Forecast" * > searchresults.txt
cat searchresults.txt
cat searchresults.txt | sed 's/^/https:\/\/www.givewell.org\//' > searchresults2.txt
cat searchresults2.txt
grep -v "print" searchresults2.txt > searchresults3.txt
while read line; do
firefox --new-tab "$line"
done < searchresults3.txt
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were.
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts
For this grant, we are recording the following <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/internal-forecasts">forecasts</a>:
For this grant, we are recording the following <a href="https://www.givewell.org/research/internal-forecasts">forecast</a>:
For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts (made during our decision process):
We are experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of the probability of events related to our decision-making (especially grant-making). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. For this grant, we are recording the following forecast:
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are. For this grant, we are recording the following forecasts:
We’re experimenting with recording explicit numerical forecasts of events related to our decisionmaking (especially grantmaking). The idea behind this is to pull out the implicit predictions that are playing a role in our decisions, and make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those are.
Divide by h2, then pull the second which has forecasts
## OpenPhil
wget --recursive --no-clobber --html-extension --domains www.openphilanthropy.org --follow-tags=a --reject '*.js,*.css,*.ico,*.txt,*.gif,*.jpg,*.jpeg,*.png,*.mp3,*.mp4,*.pdf,*.tgz,*.flv,*.avi,*.mpeg,*.iso,*.xls,*.xlsx,*.csv,*.doc,*.docx,*.mpa,*mp4' --ignore-tags=img,link,script --header="Accept: text/html" --no-parent https://www.openphilanthropy.org
Find and delete largest files
du -a . | sort -n -r | head -n 20
find . -xdev -type f -size +100M
find . -type f -exec du -s {} \; | sort -r -k1,1n | head -n 20
grep -ril -E "Internal forecast" * > searchresults.txt
grep -v "print" searchresults.txt > searchresults2.txt
Note to self: OpenPhil uses h3 headers instead.

3
src/omen-fetch.js
View File

@ -57,13 +57,14 @@ async function fetch_all(){
let numYes = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[0])
let numNo = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[1])
let percentage = (numYes/(numYes+numNo))*100
let percentageFormatted = isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(0) + "%"):"none"
let obj = {
Title: data.question.title,
URL: "https://omen.eth.link/#/"+data.id,
Platform: "Omen",
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
marginalPrices: data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices,
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(4) + "%"):"none",
"Percentage": percentageFormatted,
"Description": "",
"Stars": getstars(1)
}

3
src/polymarket-fetch.js
View File

@ -86,12 +86,13 @@ async function fetch_all(){
let tradevolume = (Number(data.collateralBuyVolume) + Number(data.collateralSellVolume))/units
let liquidity = Number(data.liquidityParameter)/units
let percentage = Number(data.outcomeTokenPrices[0])*100
let percentageFormatted = isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(0) + "%"):"none"
combinedObj[addressLowerCase] = {
Title: obj.title,
URL: obj.url,
Platform: "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(2) + "%"):"none",
"Percentage": percentageFormatted,
"Description": obj.description,
"# Forecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(0),
"Stars": getstars(2)

8
src/predictit-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
/* Support functions */
@ -36,15 +36,15 @@ export async function predictit(){
let isbinary = market.contracts.length == 1;
await sleep(3000*(1+Math.random()))
let descriptionraw = await fetchmarketrules(market.id)
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed1 = toMarkdown(descriptionraw)
let description= descriptionprocessed1
let percentageFormatted = isbinary? Number(Number(market.contracts[0].lastTradePrice)*100).toFixed(0)+"%" : "none"
let obj = ({
Title: market["name"],
URL: market.url,
Platform: "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary? Number(Number(market.contracts[0].lastTradePrice)*100).toFixed(0)+"%" : "none",
"Percentage": percentageFormatted,
"Description": description,
"Stars": getstars(2)
//"qualityindicators": {}

127
src/smarkets-fetch.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import {getstars} from "./stars.js"
import toMarkdown from "./toMarkdown.js"
/* Definitions */
let htmlEndPointEntrance = 'https://api.smarkets.com/v3/events/'
/* Support functions */
async function fetchEvents(url){
let response = await axios({
url: htmlEndPointEntrance+url,
method: 'GET',
headers: ({
'Content-Type': 'text/html',
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
//console.log(response)
return response
}
async function fetchMarkets(eventid){
let response = await axios({
url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/events/${eventid}/markets/`,
method: 'GET',
headers: ({
'Content-Type': 'text/json',
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
.then(res => res.markets)
return response
}
async function fetchContracts(marketid){
let response = await axios({
url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/markets/${marketid}/contracts/`,
method: 'GET',
headers: ({
'Content-Type': 'text/html',
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
//console.log(response)
return response
}
async function fetchPrices(marketid){
let response = await axios({
url: `https://api.smarkets.com/v3/markets/${marketid}/last_executed_prices/`,
method: 'GET',
headers: ({
'Content-Type': 'text/html',
}),
})
.then(res => res.data)
//console.log(response)
return response
}
/* Body */
export async function smarkets(){
let htmlPath = '?state=new&state=upcoming&state=live&type_domain=politics&type_scope=single_event&with_new_type=true&sort=id&limit=50'
let events = []
while(htmlPath){
let data = await fetchEvents(htmlPath)
events.push(...data.events)
htmlPath = data.pagination.next_page
}
//console.log(events)
let markets = []
for(let event of events){
//console.log(Date.now())
//console.log(event.name)
let eventMarkets = await fetchMarkets(event.id)
eventMarkets = eventMarkets.map(market => ({...market, slug:event.full_slug}))
//console.log("Markets fetched")
//console.log(event.id)
//console.log(market)
markets.push(...eventMarkets)
//let lastPrices = await fetchPrices(market.id)
}
//console.log(markets)
let results = []
for(let market of markets){
console.log("================")
console.log(market)
let isBinary = false
let percentage = "none"
let name = market.name
let contracts = await fetchContracts(market.id)
if(contracts["contracts"].length == 2){
isBinary = true
let prices = await fetchPrices(market.id)
percentage = ( Number(prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id][0].last_executed_price) + (100 - Number(prices["last_executed_prices"][market.id][1].last_executed_price)) ) / 2
percentage = Math.round(percentage)+"%"
let contractName = contracts["contracts"][0].name
name = name+ (contractName=="Yes"?'':` (${contracts["contracts"][0].name})`)
}
let result = {
"Title": name,
"URL": "https://smarkets.com/event/"+ market.event_id + market.slug,
"Platform": "Smarkets",
"Binary question?": isBinary,
"Percentage": percentage,
"Description": market.description,
"Stars": getstars(2)
}
console.log(result)
results.push(result)
}
//console.log(results)
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync('./data/smarkets-questions.json', string);
}
//smarkets()

19
src/toMarkdown.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
/* Imports */
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
var styleConfig = {
linkProcess: function(href, linkText){
return `[${linkText}](${href})`;
},
}
/* Support functions */
/* Body */
export default function toMarkdown(htmlText){
return textVersion(htmlText, styleConfig);
}
toMarkdown()