25 KiB
25 KiB
| 1 | Title | URL | Platform | Binary question? | Percentage | Description | # Forecasts | Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 5 February 2021 France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election in April 2022, with a possible [run-off](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/) two weeks later. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron may run [again](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/world/europe/france-macron-right.html), but he has not yet committed to doing so. 15 February 2021 - It is early days and a lot can happen before the election. To gauge their initial forecasts, Superforecasters are looking at opinion polls and possible wild cards. One question is whether incumbent Emmanuel Macron will run again. Assuming he does, Superforecasters give his Republic Forward a 69% probability of winning, with the National Rally a runner-up at 20% probability of winning. "Macron is unpopular, yet less so than the alternative (especially in the French two-round system)," one Superforecaster writes. See examples of their reasoning in the commentary below. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 3 | In the next Italian general election, which party will win the largest number of parliamentary seats? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 29 January 2021 The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, though a [snap](https://www.thelocal.it/20210126/explained-why-has-italy-prime-minister-resigned-and-what-happens-now) general election could be [called](http://www.senato.it/documenti/repository/istituzione/costituzione_inglese.pdf) before then. The question will resolve on the total number of [seats](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/italy/) won in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate combined. 8 February 2021 - Italy's Prime Minister Conte, who has led a coalition government throughout the coronavirus emergency, resigned on 26 January. The next Italian general election is due by 28 May 2023, but a snap general election could be called before then. Superforecasters are basing their initial predictions on their examination of Italy's electoral system and current polls, with an eye on developments that could affect the composition of Italian parliament. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 4 | Before 1 April 2022, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 10 April 2020 Since taking office in 2019, there have been [calls](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-24/impeach-bolsonaro-just-five-months-in-talk-has-already-begun) to [impeach](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-brazils-bolsonaro-faces-calls-for-his-impeachment.html) President Bolsonaro, most recently due to his policies relating to the [COVID-19](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-a/brazils-bolsonaro-isolated-weakened-by-coronavirus-denial-idUSKBN21K333) pandemic. 2 February 2021 - Despite 48 impeachment requests filed against Jair Bolsonaro in the lower house of Brazil's legislative assembly, including for corruption scandals involving his immediate family and his policies relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, Speaker Rodrigo Maia, replaced 1 February by Arthur Lira, had shown [no intention](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics/brazils-house-speaker-says-not-the-right-time-to-handle-impeachment-requests-against-bolsonaro-idUSKCN24P1MK) to start an impeachment process at the moment. The Brazilian president's popularity remains strong according to recent polls, and there are no legislative elections scheduled until October 2022 that could diminish Bolsonaro's support. Superforecasters see a 5% chance that Bolsonaro may cease to be Brazil's president before 1 April 2022. See top SuperforecasterÃ<72><C383> comments below. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 5 | When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment](https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 6 | What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)'s website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions). 27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 7 | How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 26 June 2020 The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a [topic](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) of [intense](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) [speculation](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2931237-X/fulltext). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021. 20 January 2021 - "It's all about testing." This is what the resolution of this question depends on, according to Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters. Increased testing, enabled by availability of cheaper rapid tests, will lead to a higher number of reported cases. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 8 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic). Dozens of [companies](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html)'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization). "[Compassionate use](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access)" and "[emergency use](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B "is aspirational at best," according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline ("Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution ("Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"), with 11% probability. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 9 | When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized](https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP). The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut](https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 10 | When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19? | https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech). The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK](https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government](https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976). For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 12 February 2021 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (55%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated by May 2021. Two caveats are supply and willingness of people to be vaccinated. The next answer bin, "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021," has a 44% likelihood due to potential issues with logistics, especially when it is time to start offering second doses. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 11 | In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board? | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board](https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board](https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report](https://www.conference-board.org/us/). 11 February 2021 - The range "between 23% and 27%, inclusive" remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021. Superforecasters assign a 26% probability that the percentage of S&P 500 board seats held by racial minorities in 2021 will be less than 23% and a 70% probability that it will be between 23% and 27%, inclusive. They see a 4% chance that it could be more than 27% this year. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 12 | What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF? | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020)) and [others](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report. 11 February 2021 - A growth of up to 4% remains the Superforecasters' top probability for the resolution of this question (61% probability). However, slow vaccine rollout, especially in Europe, and lockdowns at the start of 2021 are some of the factors the Superforecasters considered in assigning a 31% probability that the world's GDP may fall within 4% below the 2019 level. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 13 | What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar? | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment](https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data](https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 8 February 2021 - Morningstar reported global ESG funds increased by over 100% in 2020 relative to 2019, significantly outperforming their traditional fund peers. Superforecasters believe this strong performance should only serve to draw more investors and the value of sustainable funds is on track to increase further in 2021. The question is by how much. Superforecasters are split on whether the increase will be up to 100% higher relative to the 2020 value or will more than double relative to 2020. They currently see 1% chance that the value will remain the same or be lower than the previous year. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 14 | When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States? | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access). Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 12 February 2021 - Superforecasters increasingly see the US on track to distribute enough doses for 200 million people before July 2021 (77% probability). Johnson & Johnson submitted for emergency use approval for their vaccine and, if successful, expects to deliver the first doses in March. Pfizer and Moderna have agreed to expedite the delivery of 100 million doses each by a month, moving them up to May. Superforecasters cite these and other factors in their reasoning, including production estimates, US Chief Medical Advisor Fauci's comments, and President Biden's plan to ramp up vaccine administration capabilities. They assign 20% probability that the distribution may slip into the third quarter. | ★★★★☆ | |
| 15 | As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"? | https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ | Good Judgment | false | none | Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers](https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487), and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 12 February 2021 - The UK's relative success with its ongoing vaccination program may be good news for businesses, but Superforecasters note the national lockdown is expected to continue at least until the second week of March. A substantial proportion of the working population will not have been vaccinated before summer. They also note certain advantages to working from home (WFH), from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute. On the other hand, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business. Superforecasters see the highest probability (77%) that the percentage of working adults who work from home exclusively as of 1 July 2021 will be more than 10% but less than 20%. | ★★★★☆ |