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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The ""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.33380000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.2263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.2775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","8","8",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 7,500"",""probability"":0.0433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500"",""probability"":0.3189,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500"",""probability"":0.2256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 13,500"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","10","9",2
"How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3","3",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.1333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22329999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.1989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.1233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","9","9",2
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.31670000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.028300000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","6","6",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.0313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.4987,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.2987,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","9","8",2
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.39799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.055999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2929,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.35710000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.0429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","8","7",2
"What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21969999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","53","52",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.0394,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.2208,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54","52",2
"Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94","86",2
"Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","142","120",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","122",3
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.42450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.21239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","43","41",2
"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
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"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","121","106",3
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","85",2
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053399999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","97","86",2
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30269999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","119","110",3
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35259999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","39",2
","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2041,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.3615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","39",2
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","125","99",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1291,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0279,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","126","99",3
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","50","47",2
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
@ -38,14 +38,14 @@
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","273","180",3
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10779999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","127",3
","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.0379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","127",3
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","154",3
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","101",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.0629,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16829999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.15439999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","101",3
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","124",3
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","188","135",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13470000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.313,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","191","137",3
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.44520000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042699999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","69",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.45189999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27399999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.0417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","117","70",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/118-how-many-new-h-1b-visa-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. The mean crowd forecast for that question is 8,122. You can view those forecasts here.Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants. It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2021.  The fiscal year is October 1 through September 30. The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The "Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.0475,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.33380000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.2263,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.2775,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 7,500","probability":0.0433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive","probability":0.11220000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500","probability":0.3189,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500","probability":0.2256,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 13,500","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 8 10 8 9 2
3 How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.0333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.3333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.2267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.23670000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 70,000","probability":0.1333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive","probability":0.22329999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000","probability":0.3211,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000","probability":0.1989,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 130,000","probability":0.1233,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3 9 3 9 2
4 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.0333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1567,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.465,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.31670000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.028300000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $400 billion","probability":0.0313,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive","probability":0.145,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion","probability":0.4987,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion","probability":0.2987,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $775 billion","probability":0.0263,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 6 9 6 8 2
5 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.14800000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.28800000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.39799999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.055999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 3%","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0.2929,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.35710000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%","probability":0.0771,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.5%","probability":0.0429,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 8 5 7 2
6 What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.21969999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3431,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.2747,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $470 billion","probability":0.0394,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion","probability":0.2208,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion","probability":0.3531,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $680 billion","probability":0.2825,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 53 54 52 2
7 Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. "Fires upon" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 94 86 2
8 Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022 CSET-foretell Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 142 144 120 122 3
9 How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $40 billion","probability":0.0559,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive","probability":0.23170000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion","probability":0.42450000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion","probability":0.21239999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion","probability":0.0755,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 43 41 2
10 How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" [{"name":"Less than $13 billion","probability":0.0348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion","probability":0.42369999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion","probability":0.32189999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $25 billion","probability":0.0833,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 41 39 2
11 What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." [{"name":"Less than -0.25","probability":0.1675,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive","probability":0.319,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25","probability":0.3066,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5","probability":0.1612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.5","probability":0.045599999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 121 106 3
12 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.053200000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.21309999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.3461,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.2373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.053399999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive","probability":0.1985,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million","probability":0.3546,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million","probability":0.24239999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $650 million","probability":0.1512,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 96 97 85 86 2
13 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than $30 million","probability":0.048600000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive","probability":0.30269999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million","probability":0.3281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million","probability":0.1957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 million","probability":0.1249,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 119 110 3
14 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.0426,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0885,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.2148,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.35259999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.3015,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 26,000","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive","probability":0.0819,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000","probability":0.2041,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000","probability":0.3615,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 32,000","probability":0.3126,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 45 46 39 2
15 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1276,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4341,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.29960000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.1085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0301,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 800","probability":0.1291,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 800 and 4,000","probability":0.4371,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000","probability":0.29960000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000","probability":0.1063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000","probability":0.0279,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 125 126 99 3
16 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Less than 0.45%","probability":0.0458,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive","probability":0.1812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%","probability":0.3048,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%","probability":0.23149999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2%","probability":0.23670000000000002,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 50 47 2
17 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 113 79 3
18 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry [{"name":"Zero","probability":0.337,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"One","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Two or more","probability":0.293,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 92 81 2
20 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 273 180 3
21 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.038,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.10779999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.24239999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6118,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before February 17, 2021","probability":0.0379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive","probability":0.107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021","probability":0.2407,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"After November 17, 2021","probability":0.6144,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 202 203 127 3
22 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 59%","probability":0.1315,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 59% and 66%, inclusive","probability":0.1916,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%","probability":0.2637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%","probability":0.2802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 80%","probability":0.133,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 189 154 3
23 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.1637,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.295,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.155,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 15%","probability":0.0629,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15% and 17%, inclusive","probability":0.16829999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%","probability":0.3226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%","probability":0.2919,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 21%","probability":0.15439999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 120 123 101 3
24 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 162 124 3
25 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0676,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.1405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.2122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2672,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.3125,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.5%","probability":0.0665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive","probability":0.13470000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%","probability":0.21170000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%","probability":0.2741,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6%","probability":0.313,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 188 191 135 137 3
26 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.44520000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.2731,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.1523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.0867,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.042699999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 675","probability":0.45189999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 675 and 750, inclusive","probability":0.27399999999999997,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 750 but less than or equal to 825","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 825 but less than or equal to 900","probability":0.0825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 900","probability":0.0417,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 115 117 69 70 3
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data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
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@ -43,32 +43,32 @@
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@ -79,32 +79,32 @@
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@ -115,32 +115,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
"probability": 0.14800000000000002,
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.28800000000000003,
"probability": 0.2929,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.39799999999999996,
"probability": 0.35710000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
"probability": 0.11,
"probability": 0.0771,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
"probability": 0.055999999999999994,
"probability": 0.0429,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "5",
"numforecasters": "5",
"numforecasts": "8",
"numforecasters": "7",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -151,31 +151,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.0394,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1125,
"probability": 0.1042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.21969999999999998,
"probability": 0.2208,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3431,
"probability": 0.3531,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.2747,
"probability": 0.2825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "53",
"numforecasts": "54",
"numforecasters": "52",
"stars": 2
},
@ -217,8 +217,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "142",
"numforecasters": "120",
"numforecasts": "144",
"numforecasters": "122",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -337,32 +337,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
"probability": 0.053200000000000004,
"probability": 0.053399999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.21309999999999998,
"probability": 0.1985,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
"probability": 0.3461,
"probability": 0.3546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
"probability": 0.2373,
"probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
"probability": 0.1503,
"probability": 0.1512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "85",
"numforecasts": "97",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -409,31 +409,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
"probability": 0.0426,
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.0885,
"probability": 0.0819,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
"probability": 0.2148,
"probability": 0.2041,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
"probability": 0.35259999999999997,
"probability": 0.3615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
"probability": 0.3015,
"probability": 0.3126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2
},
@ -445,12 +445,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.1276,
"probability": 0.1291,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.4341,
"probability": 0.4371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -460,16 +460,16 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.1085,
"probability": 0.1063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.0301,
"probability": 0.0279,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "125",
"numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3
},
@ -621,26 +621,26 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.038,
"probability": 0.0379,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.10779999999999999,
"probability": 0.107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"probability": 0.2407,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6118,
"probability": 0.6144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "202",
"numforecasts": "203",
"numforecasters": "127",
"stars": 3
},
@ -688,31 +688,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.063,
"probability": 0.0629,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1637,
"probability": 0.16829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
"probability": 0.3233,
"probability": 0.3226,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.295,
"probability": 0.2919,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.155,
"probability": 0.15439999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "120",
"numforecasts": "123",
"numforecasters": "101",
"stars": 3
},
@ -745,32 +745,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.0676,
"probability": 0.0665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1405,
"probability": 0.13470000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2122,
"probability": 0.21170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.2672,
"probability": 0.2741,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.3125,
"probability": 0.313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "188",
"numforecasters": "135",
"numforecasts": "191",
"numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -781,32 +781,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.44520000000000004,
"probability": 0.45189999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2731,
"probability": 0.27399999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.1523,
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.0867,
"probability": 0.0825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.042699999999999995,
"probability": 0.0417,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasters": "69",
"numforecasts": "117",
"numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3
}
]

507
data/estimize-questions.csv Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,507 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Estimates for Security (Symbol)","https://www.estimize.com/symbol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","https://www.estimize.com/mmm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","https://www.estimize.com/abt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)","https://www.estimize.com/abbv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD)","https://www.estimize.com/abmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Accenture (ACN)","https://www.estimize.com/acn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI)","https://www.estimize.com/atvi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE)","https://www.estimize.com/adbe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)","https://www.estimize.com/amd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP)","https://www.estimize.com/aap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AES Corp (AES)","https://www.estimize.com/aes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aflac (AFL)","https://www.estimize.com/afl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A)","https://www.estimize.com/a","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD)","https://www.estimize.com/apd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM)","https://www.estimize.com/akam","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK)","https://www.estimize.com/alk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB)","https://www.estimize.com/alb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)","https://www.estimize.com/are","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)","https://www.estimize.com/alxn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN)","https://www.estimize.com/algn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Allegion (ALLE)","https://www.estimize.com/alle","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT)","https://www.estimize.com/lnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL)","https://www.estimize.com/all","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL)","https://www.estimize.com/googl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)","https://www.estimize.com/goog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO)","https://www.estimize.com/mo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)","https://www.estimize.com/amzn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR)","https://www.estimize.com/amcr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE)","https://www.estimize.com/aee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL)","https://www.estimize.com/aal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP)","https://www.estimize.com/aep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Express (AXP)","https://www.estimize.com/axp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American International Group (AIG)","https://www.estimize.com/aig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT)","https://www.estimize.com/amt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for American Water Works (AWK)","https://www.estimize.com/awk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP)","https://www.estimize.com/amp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC)","https://www.estimize.com/abc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ametek (AME)","https://www.estimize.com/ame","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN)","https://www.estimize.com/amgn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH)","https://www.estimize.com/aph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Analog Devices (ADI)","https://www.estimize.com/adi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""ANSYS (ANSS)","https://www.estimize.com/anss","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Anthem (ANTM)","https://www.estimize.com/antm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aon plc (AON)","https://www.estimize.com/aon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS)","https://www.estimize.com/aos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for APA Corporation (APA)","https://www.estimize.com/apa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL)","https://www.estimize.com/aapl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT)","https://www.estimize.com/amat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV)","https://www.estimize.com/aptv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)","https://www.estimize.com/adm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET)","https://www.estimize.com/anet","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG)","https://www.estimize.com/ajg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Assurant (AIZ)","https://www.estimize.com/aiz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T)","https://www.estimize.com/t","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO)","https://www.estimize.com/ato","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK)","https://www.estimize.com/adsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP)","https://www.estimize.com/adp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO)","https://www.estimize.com/azo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB)","https://www.estimize.com/avb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY)","https://www.estimize.com/avy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR)","https://www.estimize.com/bkr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL)","https://www.estimize.com/bll","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC)","https://www.estimize.com/bac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK)","https://www.estimize.com/bk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX)","https://www.estimize.com/bax","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX)","https://www.estimize.com/bdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)","https://www.estimize.com/brk.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY)","https://www.estimize.com/bby","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO)","https://www.estimize.com/bio","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB)","https://www.estimize.com/biib","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for BlackRock (BLK)","https://www.estimize.com/blk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boeing Company (BA)","https://www.estimize.com/ba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG)","https://www.estimize.com/bkng","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA)","https://www.estimize.com/bwa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP)","https://www.estimize.com/bxp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX)","https://www.estimize.com/bsx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)","https://www.estimize.com/bmy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)","https://www.estimize.com/avgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)","https://www.estimize.com/br","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B)","https://www.estimize.com/bf.b","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)","https://www.estimize.com/chrw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)","https://www.estimize.com/cog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)","https://www.estimize.com/cdns","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB)","https://www.estimize.com/cpb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF)","https://www.estimize.com/cof","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH)","https://www.estimize.com/cah","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX)","https://www.estimize.com/kmx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL)","https://www.estimize.com/ccl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR)","https://www.estimize.com/carr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Catalent (CTLT)","https://www.estimize.com/ctlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)","https://www.estimize.com/cat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE)","https://www.estimize.com/cboe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE)","https://www.estimize.com/cbre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CDW (CDW)","https://www.estimize.com/cdw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Celanese (CE)","https://www.estimize.com/ce","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC)","https://www.estimize.com/cnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP)","https://www.estimize.com/cnp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cerner (CERN)","https://www.estimize.com/cern","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)","https://www.estimize.com/cf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)","https://www.estimize.com/schw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR)","https://www.estimize.com/chtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX)","https://www.estimize.com/cvx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)","https://www.estimize.com/cmg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB)","https://www.estimize.com/cb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD)","https://www.estimize.com/chd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cigna (CI)","https://www.estimize.com/ci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF)","https://www.estimize.com/cinf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/csco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C)","https://www.estimize.com/c","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG)","https://www.estimize.com/cfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS)","https://www.estimize.com/ctxs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX)","https://www.estimize.com/clx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME)","https://www.estimize.com/cme","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS)","https://www.estimize.com/cms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO)","https://www.estimize.com/ko","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)","https://www.estimize.com/ctsh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL)","https://www.estimize.com/cl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)","https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA)","https://www.estimize.com/cma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG)","https://www.estimize.com/cag","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP)","https://www.estimize.com/cop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED)","https://www.estimize.com/ed","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ)","https://www.estimize.com/stz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO)","https://www.estimize.com/coo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT)","https://www.estimize.com/cprt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW)","https://www.estimize.com/glw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Corteva (CTVA)","https://www.estimize.com/ctva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST)","https://www.estimize.com/cost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI)","https://www.estimize.com/cci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX)","https://www.estimize.com/csx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI)","https://www.estimize.com/cmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for CVS Health (CVS)","https://www.estimize.com/cvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI)","https://www.estimize.com/dhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR)","https://www.estimize.com/dhr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI)","https://www.estimize.com/dri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA)","https://www.estimize.com/dva","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE)","https://www.estimize.com/de","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)","https://www.estimize.com/dal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY)","https://www.estimize.com/xray","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN)","https://www.estimize.com/dvn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DexCom (DXCM)","https://www.estimize.com/dxcm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG)","https://www.estimize.com/fang","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR)","https://www.estimize.com/dlr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS)","https://www.estimize.com/dfs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCA)","https://www.estimize.com/disca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Discovery (DISCK)","https://www.estimize.com/disck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dish Network (DISH)","https://www.estimize.com/dish","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dollar General (DG)","https://www.estimize.com/dg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR)","https://www.estimize.com/dltr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dominion Energy (D)","https://www.estimize.com/d","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ)","https://www.estimize.com/dpz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV)","https://www.estimize.com/dov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW)","https://www.estimize.com/dow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE)","https://www.estimize.com/dte","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK)","https://www.estimize.com/duk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE)","https://www.estimize.com/dre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD)","https://www.estimize.com/dd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC)","https://www.estimize.com/dxc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN)","https://www.estimize.com/emn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN)","https://www.estimize.com/etn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY)","https://www.estimize.com/ebay","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL)","https://www.estimize.com/ecl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW)","https://www.estimize.com/ew","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA)","https://www.estimize.com/ea","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR)","https://www.estimize.com/emr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH)","https://www.estimize.com/enph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR)","https://www.estimize.com/etr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG)","https://www.estimize.com/eog","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX)","https://www.estimize.com/efx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equinix (EQIX)","https://www.estimize.com/eqix","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR)","https://www.estimize.com/eqr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Essex Property Trust (ESS)","https://www.estimize.com/ess","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL)","https://www.estimize.com/el","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Etsy (ETSY)","https://www.estimize.com/etsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Evergy (EVRG)","https://www.estimize.com/evrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES)","https://www.estimize.com/es","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE)","https://www.estimize.com/re","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC)","https://www.estimize.com/exc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE)","https://www.estimize.com/expe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD)","https://www.estimize.com/expd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR)","https://www.estimize.com/exr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)","https://www.estimize.com/xom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV)","https://www.estimize.com/ffiv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Facebook (FB)","https://www.estimize.com/fb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST)","https://www.estimize.com/fast","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)","https://www.estimize.com/frt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX)","https://www.estimize.com/fdx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)","https://www.estimize.com/fis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)","https://www.estimize.com/fitb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE)","https://www.estimize.com/fe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC)","https://www.estimize.com/frc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV)","https://www.estimize.com/fisv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT)","https://www.estimize.com/flt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR)","https://www.estimize.com/flir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS)","https://www.estimize.com/fls","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC)","https://www.estimize.com/fmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F)","https://www.estimize.com/f","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT)","https://www.estimize.com/ftnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV)","https://www.estimize.com/ftv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)","https://www.estimize.com/fbhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)","https://www.estimize.com/foxa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX)","https://www.estimize.com/fox","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN)","https://www.estimize.com/ben","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)","https://www.estimize.com/fcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS)","https://www.estimize.com/gps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)","https://www.estimize.com/grmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT)","https://www.estimize.com/it","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Dynamics (GD)","https://www.estimize.com/gd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Electric (GE)","https://www.estimize.com/ge","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Mills (GIS)","https://www.estimize.com/gis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for General Motors (GM)","https://www.estimize.com/gm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC)","https://www.estimize.com/gpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD)","https://www.estimize.com/gild","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL)","https://www.estimize.com/gl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN)","https://www.estimize.com/gpn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS)","https://www.estimize.com/gs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW)","https://www.estimize.com/gww","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL)","https://www.estimize.com/hal","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI)","https://www.estimize.com/hbi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG)","https://www.estimize.com/hig","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS)","https://www.estimize.com/has","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA)","https://www.estimize.com/hca","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK)","https://www.estimize.com/peak","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC)","https://www.estimize.com/hsic","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY)","https://www.estimize.com/hsy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES)","https://www.estimize.com/hes","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE)","https://www.estimize.com/hpe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT)","https://www.estimize.com/hlt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC)","https://www.estimize.com/hfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hologic (HOLX)","https://www.estimize.com/holx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Home Depot (HD)","https://www.estimize.com/hd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON)","https://www.estimize.com/hon","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL)","https://www.estimize.com/hrl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST)","https://www.estimize.com/hst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM)","https://www.estimize.com/hwm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ)","https://www.estimize.com/hpq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM)","https://www.estimize.com/hum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN)","https://www.estimize.com/hban","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)","https://www.estimize.com/hii","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX)","https://www.estimize.com/iex","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX)","https://www.estimize.com/idxx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO)","https://www.estimize.com/info","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW)","https://www.estimize.com/itw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN)","https://www.estimize.com/ilmn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Incyte (INCY)","https://www.estimize.com/incy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR)","https://www.estimize.com/ir","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC)","https://www.estimize.com/intc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)","https://www.estimize.com/ice","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM)","https://www.estimize.com/ibm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Paper (IP)","https://www.estimize.com/ip","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ipg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF)","https://www.estimize.com/iff","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU)","https://www.estimize.com/intu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)","https://www.estimize.com/isrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)","https://www.estimize.com/ivz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP)","https://www.estimize.com/ipgp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)","https://www.estimize.com/iqv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM)","https://www.estimize.com/irm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)","https://www.estimize.com/jkhy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J)","https://www.estimize.com/j","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)","https://www.estimize.com/jbht","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM)","https://www.estimize.com/sjm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)","https://www.estimize.com/jnj","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI)","https://www.estimize.com/jci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)","https://www.estimize.com/jpm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR)","https://www.estimize.com/jnpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU)","https://www.estimize.com/ksu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K)","https://www.estimize.com/k","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY)","https://www.estimize.com/key","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS)","https://www.estimize.com/keys","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB)","https://www.estimize.com/kmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM)","https://www.estimize.com/kim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI)","https://www.estimize.com/kmi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC)","https://www.estimize.com/klac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)","https://www.estimize.com/khc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR)","https://www.estimize.com/kr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB)","https://www.estimize.com/lb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX)","https://www.estimize.com/lhx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH)","https://www.estimize.com/lh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX)","https://www.estimize.com/lrcx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)","https://www.estimize.com/lw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS)","https://www.estimize.com/lvs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG)","https://www.estimize.com/leg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS)","https://www.estimize.com/ldos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN)","https://www.estimize.com/len","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY)","https://www.estimize.com/lly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC)","https://www.estimize.com/lnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Linde plc (LIN)","https://www.estimize.com/lin","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)","https://www.estimize.com/lyv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ)","https://www.estimize.com/lkq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT)","https://www.estimize.com/lmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Loews Corp. (L)","https://www.estimize.com/l","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW)","https://www.estimize.com/low","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN)","https://www.estimize.com/lumn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB)","https://www.estimize.com/lyb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB)","https://www.estimize.com/mtb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO)","https://www.estimize.com/mro","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC)","https://www.estimize.com/mpc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX)","https://www.estimize.com/mktx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marriott International (MAR)","https://www.estimize.com/mar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC)","https://www.estimize.com/mmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM)","https://www.estimize.com/mlm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS)","https://www.estimize.com/mas","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA)","https://www.estimize.com/ma","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC)","https://www.estimize.com/mkc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)","https://www.estimize.com/mxim","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD)","https://www.estimize.com/mcd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK)","https://www.estimize.com/mck","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT)","https://www.estimize.com/mdt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK)","https://www.estimize.com/mrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET)","https://www.estimize.com/met","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD)","https://www.estimize.com/mtd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM)","https://www.estimize.com/mgm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP)","https://www.estimize.com/mchp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Micron Technology (MU)","https://www.estimize.com/mu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)","https://www.estimize.com/msft","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA)","https://www.estimize.com/maa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK)","https://www.estimize.com/mhk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)","https://www.estimize.com/tap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ)","https://www.estimize.com/mdlz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)","https://www.estimize.com/mpwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST)","https://www.estimize.com/mnst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO)","https://www.estimize.com/mco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS)","https://www.estimize.com/ms","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS)","https://www.estimize.com/mos","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI)","https://www.estimize.com/msi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI)","https://www.estimize.com/msci","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Nasdaq (NDAQ)","https://www.estimize.com/ndaq","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NetApp (NTAP)","https://www.estimize.com/ntap","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX)","https://www.estimize.com/nflx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL)","https://www.estimize.com/nwl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM)","https://www.estimize.com/nem","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA)","https://www.estimize.com/nwsa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS)","https://www.estimize.com/nws","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE)","https://www.estimize.com/nee","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN)","https://www.estimize.com/nlsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Nike (NKE)","https://www.estimize.com/nke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI)","https://www.estimize.com/ni","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC)","https://www.estimize.com/nsc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/ntrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC)","https://www.estimize.com/noc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK)","https://www.estimize.com/nlok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)","https://www.estimize.com/nclh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV)","https://www.estimize.com/nov","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG)","https://www.estimize.com/nrg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE)","https://www.estimize.com/nue","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)","https://www.estimize.com/nvda","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""NVR (NVR)","https://www.estimize.com/nvr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY)","https://www.estimize.com/orly","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY)","https://www.estimize.com/oxy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)","https://www.estimize.com/odfl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC)","https://www.estimize.com/omc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Oneok (OKE)","https://www.estimize.com/oke","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL)","https://www.estimize.com/orcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS)","https://www.estimize.com/otis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paccar (PCAR)","https://www.estimize.com/pcar","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)","https://www.estimize.com/pkg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH)","https://www.estimize.com/ph","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX)","https://www.estimize.com/payx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Paycom (PAYC)","https://www.estimize.com/payc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PayPal (PYPL)","https://www.estimize.com/pypl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR)","https://www.estimize.com/pnr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT)","https://www.estimize.com/pbct","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)","https://www.estimize.com/pep","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI)","https://www.estimize.com/pki","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO)","https://www.estimize.com/prgo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE)","https://www.estimize.com/pfe","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM)","https://www.estimize.com/pm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX)","https://www.estimize.com/psx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW)","https://www.estimize.com/pnw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)","https://www.estimize.com/pxd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC)","https://www.estimize.com/pnc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL)","https://www.estimize.com/pool","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG)","https://www.estimize.com/ppg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL)","https://www.estimize.com/ppl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG)","https://www.estimize.com/pfg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG)","https://www.estimize.com/pg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR)","https://www.estimize.com/pgr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Prologis (PLD)","https://www.estimize.com/pld","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU)","https://www.estimize.com/pru","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG)","https://www.estimize.com/peg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Public Storage (PSA)","https://www.estimize.com/psa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM)","https://www.estimize.com/phm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH)","https://www.estimize.com/pvh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO)","https://www.estimize.com/qrvo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR)","https://www.estimize.com/pwr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM)","https://www.estimize.com/qcom","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX)","https://www.estimize.com/dgx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)","https://www.estimize.com/rl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF)","https://www.estimize.com/rjf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX)","https://www.estimize.com/rtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O)","https://www.estimize.com/o","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG)","https://www.estimize.com/reg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)","https://www.estimize.com/regn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF)","https://www.estimize.com/rf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG)","https://www.estimize.com/rsg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ResMed (RMD)","https://www.estimize.com/rmd","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI)","https://www.estimize.com/rhi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK)","https://www.estimize.com/rok","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Rollins (ROL)","https://www.estimize.com/rol","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP)","https://www.estimize.com/rop","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST)","https://www.estimize.com/rost","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)","https://www.estimize.com/rcl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)","https://www.estimize.com/spgi","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM)","https://www.estimize.com/crm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC)","https://www.estimize.com/sbac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)","https://www.estimize.com/slb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX)","https://www.estimize.com/stx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE)","https://www.estimize.com/see","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE)","https://www.estimize.com/sre","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW)","https://www.estimize.com/now","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW)","https://www.estimize.com/shw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG)","https://www.estimize.com/spg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)","https://www.estimize.com/swks","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG)","https://www.estimize.com/slg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Snap-on (SNA)","https://www.estimize.com/sna","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Southern Company (SO)","https://www.estimize.com/so","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV)","https://www.estimize.com/luv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)","https://www.estimize.com/swk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)","https://www.estimize.com/sbux","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT)","https://www.estimize.com/stt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Steris (STE)","https://www.estimize.com/ste","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK)","https://www.estimize.com/syk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB)","https://www.estimize.com/sivb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF)","https://www.estimize.com/syf","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS)","https://www.estimize.com/snps","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY)","https://www.estimize.com/syy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS)","https://www.estimize.com/tmus","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW)","https://www.estimize.com/trow","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)","https://www.estimize.com/ttwo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Tapestry (TPR)","https://www.estimize.com/tpr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT)","https://www.estimize.com/tgt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL)","https://www.estimize.com/tel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY)","https://www.estimize.com/tdy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teleflex (TFX)","https://www.estimize.com/tfx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Teradyne (TER)","https://www.estimize.com/ter","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Tesla (TSLA)","https://www.estimize.com/tsla","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN)","https://www.estimize.com/txn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT)","https://www.estimize.com/txt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)","https://www.estimize.com/tmo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX)","https://www.estimize.com/tjx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)","https://www.estimize.com/tsco","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT)","https://www.estimize.com/tt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG)","https://www.estimize.com/tdg","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV)","https://www.estimize.com/trv","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB)","https://www.estimize.com/trmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC)","https://www.estimize.com/tfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""Twitter (TWTR)","https://www.estimize.com/twtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL)","https://www.estimize.com/tyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN)","https://www.estimize.com/tsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""UDR (UDR)","https://www.estimize.com/udr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA)","https://www.estimize.com/ulta","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB)","https://www.estimize.com/usb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA)","https://www.estimize.com/uaa","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA)","https://www.estimize.com/ua","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP)","https://www.estimize.com/unp","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL)","https://www.estimize.com/ual","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)","https://www.estimize.com/unh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS)","https://www.estimize.com/ups","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ""United Rentals (URI)","https://www.estimize.com/uri","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *""United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS)","https://www.estimize.com/uhs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Unum Group (UNM)","https://www.estimize.com/unm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO)","https://www.estimize.com/vlo","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR)","https://www.estimize.com/var","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR)","https://www.estimize.com/vtr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK)","https://www.estimize.com/vrsk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ)","https://www.estimize.com/vz","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX)","https://www.estimize.com/vrtx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC)","https://www.estimize.com/vfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC)","https://www.estimize.com/viac","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Viatris (VTRS)","https://www.estimize.com/vtrs","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Visa Inc. (V)","https://www.estimize.com/v","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vontier (VNT)","https://www.estimize.com/vnt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO)","https://www.estimize.com/vno","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC)","https://www.estimize.com/vmc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)","https://www.estimize.com/wrb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB)","https://www.estimize.com/wab","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Walmart (WMT)","https://www.estimize.com/wmt","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)","https://www.estimize.com/wba","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS)","https://www.estimize.com/dis","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM)","https://www.estimize.com/wm","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT)","https://www.estimize.com/wat","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC)","https://www.estimize.com/wec","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC)","https://www.estimize.com/wfc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL)","https://www.estimize.com/well","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)","https://www.estimize.com/wst","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Western Digital (WDC)","https://www.estimize.com/wdc","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Western Union Co (WU)","https://www.estimize.com/wu","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for WestRock (WRK)","https://www.estimize.com/wrk","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY)","https://www.estimize.com/wy","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)","https://www.estimize.com/whr","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB)","https://www.estimize.com/wmb","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW)","https://www.estimize.com/wltw","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)","https://www.estimize.com/wynn","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL)","https://www.estimize.com/xel","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xerox (XRX)","https://www.estimize.com/xrx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX)","https://www.estimize.com/xlnx","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL)","https://www.estimize.com/xyl","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)","https://www.estimize.com/yum","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)","https://www.estimize.com/zbra","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)","https://www.estimize.com/zbh","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)","https://www.estimize.com/zion","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
"Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)","https://www.estimize.com/zts","Estimize","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free","[]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Estimates for Security (Symbol) https://www.estimize.com/symbol Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
3 Estimates for 3M Company (MMM) https://www.estimize.com/mmm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
4 Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT) https://www.estimize.com/abt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
5 Estimates for AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) https://www.estimize.com/abbv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AbbVie Inc.* (sticker symbol ABBV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
6 Estimates for Abiomed (ABMD) https://www.estimize.com/abmd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abiomed* (sticker symbol ABMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
7 Estimates for Accenture (ACN) https://www.estimize.com/acn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Accenture* (sticker symbol ACN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
8 Estimates for Activision Blizzard (ATVI) https://www.estimize.com/atvi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Activision Blizzard* (sticker symbol ATVI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
9 Estimates for Adobe Inc. (ADBE) https://www.estimize.com/adbe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Adobe Inc.* (sticker symbol ADBE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
10 Estimates for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) https://www.estimize.com/amd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advanced Micro Devices* (sticker symbol AMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
11 Estimates for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) https://www.estimize.com/aap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Advance Auto Parts* (sticker symbol AAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
12 Estimates for AES Corp (AES) https://www.estimize.com/aes Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AES Corp* (sticker symbol AES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
13 Estimates for Aflac (AFL) https://www.estimize.com/afl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aflac* (sticker symbol AFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
14 Estimates for Agilent Technologies (A) https://www.estimize.com/a Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Agilent Technologies* (sticker symbol A). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
15 Estimates for Air Products & Chemicals (APD) https://www.estimize.com/apd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Air Products & Chemicals* (sticker symbol APD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
16 Estimates for Akamai Technologies (AKAM) https://www.estimize.com/akam Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Akamai Technologies* (sticker symbol AKAM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
17 Estimates for Alaska Air Group (ALK) https://www.estimize.com/alk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alaska Air Group* (sticker symbol ALK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
18 Estimates for Albemarle Corporation (ALB) https://www.estimize.com/alb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Albemarle Corporation* (sticker symbol ALB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
19 Estimates for Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) https://www.estimize.com/are Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexandria Real Estate Equities* (sticker symbol ARE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
20 Estimates for Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) https://www.estimize.com/alxn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alexion Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol ALXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
21 Estimates for Align Technology (ALGN) https://www.estimize.com/algn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Align Technology* (sticker symbol ALGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
22 Estimates for Allegion (ALLE) https://www.estimize.com/alle Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allegion* (sticker symbol ALLE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
23 Estimates for Alliant Energy (LNT) https://www.estimize.com/lnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alliant Energy* (sticker symbol LNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
24 Estimates for Allstate Corp (ALL) https://www.estimize.com/all Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Allstate Corp* (sticker symbol ALL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
25 Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class A) (GOOGL) https://www.estimize.com/googl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class A)* (sticker symbol GOOGL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
26 Estimates for Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) https://www.estimize.com/goog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Alphabet Inc. (Class C)* (sticker symbol GOOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
27 Estimates for Altria Group Inc (MO) https://www.estimize.com/mo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Altria Group Inc* (sticker symbol MO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
28 Estimates for Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) https://www.estimize.com/amzn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amazon.com Inc.* (sticker symbol AMZN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
29 Estimates for Amcor plc (AMCR) https://www.estimize.com/amcr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amcor plc* (sticker symbol AMCR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
30 Estimates for Ameren Corp (AEE) https://www.estimize.com/aee Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameren Corp* (sticker symbol AEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
31 Estimates for American Airlines Group (AAL) https://www.estimize.com/aal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Airlines Group* (sticker symbol AAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
32 Estimates for American Electric Power (AEP) https://www.estimize.com/aep Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Electric Power* (sticker symbol AEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
33 Estimates for American Express (AXP) https://www.estimize.com/axp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Express* (sticker symbol AXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
34 Estimates for American International Group (AIG) https://www.estimize.com/aig Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American International Group* (sticker symbol AIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
35 Estimates for American Tower Corp. (AMT) https://www.estimize.com/amt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Tower Corp.* (sticker symbol AMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
36 Estimates for American Water Works (AWK) https://www.estimize.com/awk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *American Water Works* (sticker symbol AWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
37 Estimates for Ameriprise Financial (AMP) https://www.estimize.com/amp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ameriprise Financial* (sticker symbol AMP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
38 Estimates for AmerisourceBergen (ABC) https://www.estimize.com/abc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AmerisourceBergen* (sticker symbol ABC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
39 Estimates for Ametek (AME) https://www.estimize.com/ame Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ametek* (sticker symbol AME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
40 Estimates for Amgen Inc. (AMGN) https://www.estimize.com/amgn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amgen Inc.* (sticker symbol AMGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
41 Estimates for Amphenol Corp (APH) https://www.estimize.com/aph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Amphenol Corp* (sticker symbol APH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
42 Estimates for "Analog Devices (ADI) https://www.estimize.com/adi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Analog Devices* (sticker symbol ADI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
43 Estimates for "ANSYS (ANSS) https://www.estimize.com/anss Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"ANSYS* (sticker symbol ANSS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
44 Estimates for Anthem (ANTM) https://www.estimize.com/antm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Anthem* (sticker symbol ANTM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
45 Estimates for Aon plc (AON) https://www.estimize.com/aon Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aon plc* (sticker symbol AON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
46 Estimates for A.O. Smith Corp (AOS) https://www.estimize.com/aos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *A.O. Smith Corp* (sticker symbol AOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
47 Estimates for APA Corporation (APA) https://www.estimize.com/apa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *APA Corporation* (sticker symbol APA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
48 Estimates for Apple Inc. (AAPL) https://www.estimize.com/aapl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Apple Inc.* (sticker symbol AAPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
49 Estimates for Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) https://www.estimize.com/amat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Applied Materials Inc.* (sticker symbol AMAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
50 Estimates for Aptiv PLC (APTV) https://www.estimize.com/aptv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Aptiv PLC* (sticker symbol APTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
51 Estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) https://www.estimize.com/adm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Archer-Daniels-Midland Co* (sticker symbol ADM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
52 Estimates for Arista Networks (ANET) https://www.estimize.com/anet Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arista Networks* (sticker symbol ANET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
53 Estimates for Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) https://www.estimize.com/ajg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.* (sticker symbol AJG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
54 Estimates for Assurant (AIZ) https://www.estimize.com/aiz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Assurant* (sticker symbol AIZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
55 Estimates for AT&T Inc. (T) https://www.estimize.com/t Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AT&T Inc.* (sticker symbol T). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
56 Estimates for Atmos Energy (ATO) https://www.estimize.com/ato Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Atmos Energy* (sticker symbol ATO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
57 Estimates for Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) https://www.estimize.com/adsk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Autodesk Inc.* (sticker symbol ADSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
58 Estimates for Automatic Data Processing (ADP) https://www.estimize.com/adp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Automatic Data Processing* (sticker symbol ADP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
59 Estimates for AutoZone Inc (AZO) https://www.estimize.com/azo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AutoZone Inc* (sticker symbol AZO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
60 Estimates for AvalonBay Communities (AVB) https://www.estimize.com/avb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *AvalonBay Communities* (sticker symbol AVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
61 Estimates for Avery Dennison Corp (AVY) https://www.estimize.com/avy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Avery Dennison Corp* (sticker symbol AVY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
62 Estimates for Baker Hughes Co (BKR) https://www.estimize.com/bkr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baker Hughes Co* (sticker symbol BKR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
63 Estimates for Ball Corp (BLL) https://www.estimize.com/bll Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ball Corp* (sticker symbol BLL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
64 Estimates for Bank of America Corp (BAC) https://www.estimize.com/bac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bank of America Corp* (sticker symbol BAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
65 Estimates for The Bank of New York Mellon (BK) https://www.estimize.com/bk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Bank of New York Mellon* (sticker symbol BK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
66 Estimates for Baxter International Inc. (BAX) https://www.estimize.com/bax Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Baxter International Inc.* (sticker symbol BAX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
67 Estimates for Becton Dickinson (BDX) https://www.estimize.com/bdx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Becton Dickinson* (sticker symbol BDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
68 Estimates for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) https://www.estimize.com/brk.b Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Berkshire Hathaway* (sticker symbol BRK.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
69 Estimates for Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) https://www.estimize.com/bby Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Best Buy Co. Inc.* (sticker symbol BBY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
70 Estimates for Bio-Rad Laboratories (BIO) https://www.estimize.com/bio Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bio-Rad Laboratories* (sticker symbol BIO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
71 Estimates for Biogen Inc. (BIIB) https://www.estimize.com/biib Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Biogen Inc.* (sticker symbol BIIB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
72 Estimates for BlackRock (BLK) https://www.estimize.com/blk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BlackRock* (sticker symbol BLK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
73 Estimates for Boeing Company (BA) https://www.estimize.com/ba Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boeing Company* (sticker symbol BA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
74 Estimates for Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) https://www.estimize.com/bkng Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Booking Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol BKNG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
75 Estimates for BorgWarner (BWA) https://www.estimize.com/bwa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *BorgWarner* (sticker symbol BWA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
76 Estimates for Boston Properties (BXP) https://www.estimize.com/bxp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Properties* (sticker symbol BXP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
77 Estimates for Boston Scientific (BSX) https://www.estimize.com/bsx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Boston Scientific* (sticker symbol BSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
78 Estimates for Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) https://www.estimize.com/bmy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Bristol-Myers Squibb* (sticker symbol BMY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
79 Estimates for Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) https://www.estimize.com/avgo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadcom Inc.* (sticker symbol AVGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
80 Estimates for Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) https://www.estimize.com/br Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Broadridge Financial Solutions* (sticker symbol BR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
81 Estimates for Brown-Forman Corp. (BF.B) https://www.estimize.com/bf.b Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Brown-Forman Corp.* (sticker symbol BF.B). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
82 Estimates for C. H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) https://www.estimize.com/chrw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *C. H. Robinson Worldwide* (sticker symbol CHRW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
83 Estimates for Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) https://www.estimize.com/cog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cabot Oil & Gas* (sticker symbol COG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
84 Estimates for Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) https://www.estimize.com/cdns Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cadence Design Systems* (sticker symbol CDNS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
85 Estimates for Campbell Soup (CPB) https://www.estimize.com/cpb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Campbell Soup* (sticker symbol CPB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
86 Estimates for Capital One Financial (COF) https://www.estimize.com/cof Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Capital One Financial* (sticker symbol COF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
87 Estimates for Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH) https://www.estimize.com/cah Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cardinal Health Inc.* (sticker symbol CAH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
88 Estimates for Carmax Inc (KMX) https://www.estimize.com/kmx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carmax Inc* (sticker symbol KMX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
89 Estimates for Carnival Corp. (CCL) https://www.estimize.com/ccl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carnival Corp.* (sticker symbol CCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
90 Estimates for Carrier Global (CARR) https://www.estimize.com/carr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Carrier Global* (sticker symbol CARR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
91 Estimates for Catalent (CTLT) https://www.estimize.com/ctlt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Catalent* (sticker symbol CTLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
92 Estimates for Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) https://www.estimize.com/cat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Caterpillar Inc.* (sticker symbol CAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
93 Estimates for Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) https://www.estimize.com/cboe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cboe Global Markets* (sticker symbol CBOE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
94 Estimates for CBRE Group (CBRE) https://www.estimize.com/cbre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CBRE Group* (sticker symbol CBRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
95 Estimates for CDW (CDW) https://www.estimize.com/cdw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CDW* (sticker symbol CDW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
96 Estimates for Celanese (CE) https://www.estimize.com/ce Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Celanese* (sticker symbol CE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
97 Estimates for Centene Corporation (CNC) https://www.estimize.com/cnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Centene Corporation* (sticker symbol CNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
98 Estimates for CenterPoint Energy (CNP) https://www.estimize.com/cnp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CenterPoint Energy* (sticker symbol CNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
99 Estimates for Cerner (CERN) https://www.estimize.com/cern Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cerner* (sticker symbol CERN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
100 Estimates for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) https://www.estimize.com/cf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CF Industries Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol CF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
101 Estimates for Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) https://www.estimize.com/schw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charles Schwab Corporation* (sticker symbol SCHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
102 Estimates for Charter Communications (CHTR) https://www.estimize.com/chtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Charter Communications* (sticker symbol CHTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
103 Estimates for Chevron Corp. (CVX) https://www.estimize.com/cvx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chevron Corp.* (sticker symbol CVX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
104 Estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) https://www.estimize.com/cmg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chipotle Mexican Grill* (sticker symbol CMG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
105 Estimates for Chubb Limited (CB) https://www.estimize.com/cb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Chubb Limited* (sticker symbol CB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
106 Estimates for Church & Dwight (CHD) https://www.estimize.com/chd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Church & Dwight* (sticker symbol CHD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
107 Estimates for Cigna (CI) https://www.estimize.com/ci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cigna* (sticker symbol CI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
108 Estimates for Cincinnati Financial (CINF) https://www.estimize.com/cinf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cincinnati Financial* (sticker symbol CINF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
109 Estimates for Cintas Corporation (CTAS) https://www.estimize.com/ctas Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cintas Corporation* (sticker symbol CTAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
110 Estimates for Cisco Systems (CSCO) https://www.estimize.com/csco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cisco Systems* (sticker symbol CSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
111 Estimates for Citigroup Inc. (C) https://www.estimize.com/c Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citigroup Inc.* (sticker symbol C). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
112 Estimates for Citizens Financial Group (CFG) https://www.estimize.com/cfg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citizens Financial Group* (sticker symbol CFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
113 Estimates for Citrix Systems (CTXS) https://www.estimize.com/ctxs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Citrix Systems* (sticker symbol CTXS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
114 Estimates for The Clorox Company (CLX) https://www.estimize.com/clx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Clorox Company* (sticker symbol CLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
115 Estimates for CME Group Inc. (CME) https://www.estimize.com/cme Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CME Group Inc.* (sticker symbol CME). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
116 Estimates for CMS Energy (CMS) https://www.estimize.com/cms Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CMS Energy* (sticker symbol CMS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
117 Estimates for Coca-Cola Company (KO) https://www.estimize.com/ko Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Coca-Cola Company* (sticker symbol KO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
118 Estimates for Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) https://www.estimize.com/ctsh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cognizant Technology Solutions* (sticker symbol CTSH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
119 Estimates for Colgate-Palmolive (CL) https://www.estimize.com/cl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Colgate-Palmolive* (sticker symbol CL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
120 Estimates for Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) https://www.estimize.com/cmcsa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comcast Corp.* (sticker symbol CMCSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
121 Estimates for Comerica Inc. (CMA) https://www.estimize.com/cma Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Comerica Inc.* (sticker symbol CMA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
122 Estimates for Conagra Brands (CAG) https://www.estimize.com/cag Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Conagra Brands* (sticker symbol CAG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
123 Estimates for ConocoPhillips (COP) https://www.estimize.com/cop Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ConocoPhillips* (sticker symbol COP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
124 Estimates for Consolidated Edison (ED) https://www.estimize.com/ed Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Consolidated Edison* (sticker symbol ED). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
125 Estimates for Constellation Brands (STZ) https://www.estimize.com/stz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Constellation Brands* (sticker symbol STZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
126 Estimates for The Cooper Companies (COO) https://www.estimize.com/coo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Cooper Companies* (sticker symbol COO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
127 Estimates for Copart Inc (CPRT) https://www.estimize.com/cprt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Copart Inc* (sticker symbol CPRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
128 Estimates for Corning Inc. (GLW) https://www.estimize.com/glw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corning Inc.* (sticker symbol GLW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
129 Estimates for Corteva (CTVA) https://www.estimize.com/ctva Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Corteva* (sticker symbol CTVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
130 Estimates for Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) https://www.estimize.com/cost Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Costco Wholesale Corp.* (sticker symbol COST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
131 Estimates for Crown Castle (CCI) https://www.estimize.com/cci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Crown Castle* (sticker symbol CCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
132 Estimates for CSX Corp. (CSX) https://www.estimize.com/csx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CSX Corp.* (sticker symbol CSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
133 Estimates for Cummins Inc. (CMI) https://www.estimize.com/cmi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Cummins Inc.* (sticker symbol CMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
134 Estimates for CVS Health (CVS) https://www.estimize.com/cvs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *CVS Health* (sticker symbol CVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
135 Estimates for D. R. Horton (DHI) https://www.estimize.com/dhi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *D. R. Horton* (sticker symbol DHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
136 Estimates for Danaher Corp. (DHR) https://www.estimize.com/dhr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Danaher Corp.* (sticker symbol DHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
137 Estimates for Darden Restaurants (DRI) https://www.estimize.com/dri Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Darden Restaurants* (sticker symbol DRI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
138 Estimates for DaVita Inc. (DVA) https://www.estimize.com/dva Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DaVita Inc.* (sticker symbol DVA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
139 Estimates for Deere & Co. (DE) https://www.estimize.com/de Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Deere & Co.* (sticker symbol DE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
140 Estimates for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) https://www.estimize.com/dal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Delta Air Lines Inc.* (sticker symbol DAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
141 Estimates for Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) https://www.estimize.com/xray Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dentsply Sirona* (sticker symbol XRAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
142 Estimates for Devon Energy (DVN) https://www.estimize.com/dvn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Devon Energy* (sticker symbol DVN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
143 Estimates for DexCom (DXCM) https://www.estimize.com/dxcm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DexCom* (sticker symbol DXCM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
144 Estimates for Diamondback Energy (FANG) https://www.estimize.com/fang Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Diamondback Energy* (sticker symbol FANG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
145 Estimates for Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) https://www.estimize.com/dlr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Digital Realty Trust Inc* (sticker symbol DLR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
146 Estimates for Discover Financial Services (DFS) https://www.estimize.com/dfs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Discover Financial Services* (sticker symbol DFS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
147 Estimates for "Discovery (DISCA) https://www.estimize.com/disca Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
148 Estimates for "Discovery (DISCK) https://www.estimize.com/disck Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Discovery* (sticker symbol DISCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
149 Estimates for Dish Network (DISH) https://www.estimize.com/dish Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dish Network* (sticker symbol DISH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
150 Estimates for Dollar General (DG) https://www.estimize.com/dg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar General* (sticker symbol DG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
151 Estimates for Dollar Tree (DLTR) https://www.estimize.com/dltr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dollar Tree* (sticker symbol DLTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
152 Estimates for Dominion Energy (D) https://www.estimize.com/d Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dominion Energy* (sticker symbol D). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
153 Estimates for Domino's Pizza (DPZ) https://www.estimize.com/dpz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Domino's Pizza* (sticker symbol DPZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
154 Estimates for Dover Corporation (DOV) https://www.estimize.com/dov Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dover Corporation* (sticker symbol DOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
155 Estimates for Dow Inc. (DOW) https://www.estimize.com/dow Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Dow Inc.* (sticker symbol DOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
156 Estimates for DTE Energy Co. (DTE) https://www.estimize.com/dte Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DTE Energy Co.* (sticker symbol DTE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
157 Estimates for Duke Energy (DUK) https://www.estimize.com/duk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Energy* (sticker symbol DUK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
158 Estimates for Duke Realty Corp (DRE) https://www.estimize.com/dre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Duke Realty Corp* (sticker symbol DRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
159 Estimates for DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD) https://www.estimize.com/dd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DuPont de Nemours Inc* (sticker symbol DD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
160 Estimates for DXC Technology (DXC) https://www.estimize.com/dxc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *DXC Technology* (sticker symbol DXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
161 Estimates for Eastman Chemical (EMN) https://www.estimize.com/emn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eastman Chemical* (sticker symbol EMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
162 Estimates for Eaton Corporation (ETN) https://www.estimize.com/etn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eaton Corporation* (sticker symbol ETN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
163 Estimates for eBay Inc. (EBAY) https://www.estimize.com/ebay Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *eBay Inc.* (sticker symbol EBAY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
164 Estimates for Ecolab Inc. (ECL) https://www.estimize.com/ecl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ecolab Inc.* (sticker symbol ECL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
165 Estimates for Edison Int'l (EIX) https://www.estimize.com/eix Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edison Int'l* (sticker symbol EIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
166 Estimates for Edwards Lifesciences (EW) https://www.estimize.com/ew Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Edwards Lifesciences* (sticker symbol EW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
167 Estimates for Electronic Arts (EA) https://www.estimize.com/ea Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Electronic Arts* (sticker symbol EA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
168 Estimates for Emerson Electric Company (EMR) https://www.estimize.com/emr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Emerson Electric Company* (sticker symbol EMR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
169 Estimates for Enphase Energy (ENPH) https://www.estimize.com/enph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Enphase Energy* (sticker symbol ENPH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
170 Estimates for Entergy Corp. (ETR) https://www.estimize.com/etr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Entergy Corp.* (sticker symbol ETR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
171 Estimates for EOG Resources (EOG) https://www.estimize.com/eog Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *EOG Resources* (sticker symbol EOG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
172 Estimates for Equifax Inc. (EFX) https://www.estimize.com/efx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equifax Inc.* (sticker symbol EFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
173 Estimates for Equinix (EQIX) https://www.estimize.com/eqix Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equinix* (sticker symbol EQIX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
174 Estimates for Equity Residential (EQR) https://www.estimize.com/eqr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Equity Residential* (sticker symbol EQR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
175 Estimates for "Essex Property Trust (ESS) https://www.estimize.com/ess Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Essex Property Trust* (sticker symbol ESS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
176 Estimates for Estée Lauder Companies (EL) https://www.estimize.com/el Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Estée Lauder Companies* (sticker symbol EL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
177 Estimates for Etsy (ETSY) https://www.estimize.com/etsy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Etsy* (sticker symbol ETSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
178 Estimates for Evergy (EVRG) https://www.estimize.com/evrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Evergy* (sticker symbol EVRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
179 Estimates for Eversource Energy (ES) https://www.estimize.com/es Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Eversource Energy* (sticker symbol ES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
180 Estimates for Everest Re Group Ltd. (RE) https://www.estimize.com/re Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Everest Re Group Ltd.* (sticker symbol RE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
181 Estimates for Exelon Corp. (EXC) https://www.estimize.com/exc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exelon Corp.* (sticker symbol EXC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
182 Estimates for Expedia Group (EXPE) https://www.estimize.com/expe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expedia Group* (sticker symbol EXPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
183 Estimates for Expeditors (EXPD) https://www.estimize.com/expd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Expeditors* (sticker symbol EXPD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
184 Estimates for Extra Space Storage (EXR) https://www.estimize.com/exr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Extra Space Storage* (sticker symbol EXR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
185 Estimates for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) https://www.estimize.com/xom Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Exxon Mobil Corp.* (sticker symbol XOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
186 Estimates for F5 Networks (FFIV) https://www.estimize.com/ffiv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *F5 Networks* (sticker symbol FFIV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
187 Estimates for "Facebook (FB) https://www.estimize.com/fb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Facebook* (sticker symbol FB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
188 Estimates for Fastenal Co (FAST) https://www.estimize.com/fast Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fastenal Co* (sticker symbol FAST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
189 Estimates for Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) https://www.estimize.com/frt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Federal Realty Investment Trust* (sticker symbol FRT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
190 Estimates for FedEx Corporation (FDX) https://www.estimize.com/fdx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FedEx Corporation* (sticker symbol FDX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
191 Estimates for Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) https://www.estimize.com/fis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fidelity National Information Services* (sticker symbol FIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
192 Estimates for Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) https://www.estimize.com/fitb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fifth Third Bancorp* (sticker symbol FITB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
193 Estimates for FirstEnergy Corp (FE) https://www.estimize.com/fe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FirstEnergy Corp* (sticker symbol FE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
194 Estimates for First Republic Bank (FRC) https://www.estimize.com/frc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *First Republic Bank* (sticker symbol FRC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
195 Estimates for Fiserv Inc (FISV) https://www.estimize.com/fisv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fiserv Inc* (sticker symbol FISV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
196 Estimates for FleetCor Technologies Inc (FLT) https://www.estimize.com/flt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FleetCor Technologies Inc* (sticker symbol FLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
197 Estimates for FLIR Systems (FLIR) https://www.estimize.com/flir Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FLIR Systems* (sticker symbol FLIR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
198 Estimates for Flowserve Corporation (FLS) https://www.estimize.com/fls Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Flowserve Corporation* (sticker symbol FLS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
199 Estimates for FMC Corporation (FMC) https://www.estimize.com/fmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *FMC Corporation* (sticker symbol FMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
200 Estimates for Ford Motor Company (F) https://www.estimize.com/f Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ford Motor Company* (sticker symbol F). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
201 Estimates for Fortinet (FTNT) https://www.estimize.com/ftnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortinet* (sticker symbol FTNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
202 Estimates for Fortive Corp (FTV) https://www.estimize.com/ftv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortive Corp* (sticker symbol FTV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
203 Estimates for Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) https://www.estimize.com/fbhs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fortune Brands Home & Security* (sticker symbol FBHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
204 Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA) https://www.estimize.com/foxa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class A)* (sticker symbol FOXA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
205 Estimates for Fox Corporation (Class B) (FOX) https://www.estimize.com/fox Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Fox Corporation (Class B)* (sticker symbol FOX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
206 Estimates for Franklin Resources (BEN) https://www.estimize.com/ben Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Franklin Resources* (sticker symbol BEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
207 Estimates for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) https://www.estimize.com/fcx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Freeport-McMoRan Inc.* (sticker symbol FCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
208 Estimates for Gap Inc. (GPS) https://www.estimize.com/gps Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gap Inc.* (sticker symbol GPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
209 Estimates for Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) https://www.estimize.com/grmn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Garmin Ltd.* (sticker symbol GRMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
210 Estimates for Gartner Inc (IT) https://www.estimize.com/it Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gartner Inc* (sticker symbol IT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
211 Estimates for General Dynamics (GD) https://www.estimize.com/gd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Dynamics* (sticker symbol GD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
212 Estimates for General Electric (GE) https://www.estimize.com/ge Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Electric* (sticker symbol GE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
213 Estimates for General Mills (GIS) https://www.estimize.com/gis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Mills* (sticker symbol GIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
214 Estimates for General Motors (GM) https://www.estimize.com/gm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *General Motors* (sticker symbol GM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
215 Estimates for Genuine Parts (GPC) https://www.estimize.com/gpc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Genuine Parts* (sticker symbol GPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
216 Estimates for Gilead Sciences (GILD) https://www.estimize.com/gild Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Gilead Sciences* (sticker symbol GILD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
217 Estimates for Globe Life Inc. (GL) https://www.estimize.com/gl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Globe Life Inc.* (sticker symbol GL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
218 Estimates for Global Payments Inc. (GPN) https://www.estimize.com/gpn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Global Payments Inc.* (sticker symbol GPN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
219 Estimates for Goldman Sachs Group (GS) https://www.estimize.com/gs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Goldman Sachs Group* (sticker symbol GS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
220 Estimates for Grainger (W.W.) Inc. (GWW) https://www.estimize.com/gww Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Grainger (W.W.) Inc.* (sticker symbol GWW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
221 Estimates for Halliburton Co. (HAL) https://www.estimize.com/hal Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Halliburton Co.* (sticker symbol HAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
222 Estimates for Hanesbrands Inc (HBI) https://www.estimize.com/hbi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hanesbrands Inc* (sticker symbol HBI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
223 Estimates for Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. (HIG) https://www.estimize.com/hig Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.* (sticker symbol HIG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
224 Estimates for Hasbro Inc. (HAS) https://www.estimize.com/has Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hasbro Inc.* (sticker symbol HAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
225 Estimates for HCA Healthcare (HCA) https://www.estimize.com/hca Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HCA Healthcare* (sticker symbol HCA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
226 Estimates for Healthpeak Properties (PEAK) https://www.estimize.com/peak Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Healthpeak Properties* (sticker symbol PEAK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
227 Estimates for Henry Schein (HSIC) https://www.estimize.com/hsic Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Henry Schein* (sticker symbol HSIC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
228 Estimates for The Hershey Company (HSY) https://www.estimize.com/hsy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Hershey Company* (sticker symbol HSY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
229 Estimates for Hess Corporation (HES) https://www.estimize.com/hes Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hess Corporation* (sticker symbol HES). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
230 Estimates for Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) https://www.estimize.com/hpe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hewlett Packard Enterprise* (sticker symbol HPE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
231 Estimates for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) https://www.estimize.com/hlt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol HLT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
232 Estimates for HollyFrontier Corp (HFC) https://www.estimize.com/hfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HollyFrontier Corp* (sticker symbol HFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
233 Estimates for Hologic (HOLX) https://www.estimize.com/holx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hologic* (sticker symbol HOLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
234 Estimates for Home Depot (HD) https://www.estimize.com/hd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Home Depot* (sticker symbol HD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
235 Estimates for Honeywell Int'l Inc. (HON) https://www.estimize.com/hon Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Honeywell Int'l Inc.* (sticker symbol HON). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
236 Estimates for Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) https://www.estimize.com/hrl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Hormel Foods Corp.* (sticker symbol HRL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
237 Estimates for Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) https://www.estimize.com/hst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Host Hotels & Resorts* (sticker symbol HST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
238 Estimates for Howmet Aerospace (HWM) https://www.estimize.com/hwm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Howmet Aerospace* (sticker symbol HWM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
239 Estimates for HP Inc. (HPQ) https://www.estimize.com/hpq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *HP Inc.* (sticker symbol HPQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
240 Estimates for Humana Inc. (HUM) https://www.estimize.com/hum Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Humana Inc.* (sticker symbol HUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
241 Estimates for Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) https://www.estimize.com/hban Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Bancshares* (sticker symbol HBAN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
242 Estimates for Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) https://www.estimize.com/hii Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Huntington Ingalls Industries* (sticker symbol HII). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
243 Estimates for IDEX Corporation (IEX) https://www.estimize.com/iex Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IDEX Corporation* (sticker symbol IEX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
244 Estimates for Idexx Laboratories (IDXX) https://www.estimize.com/idxx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Idexx Laboratories* (sticker symbol IDXX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
245 Estimates for IHS Markit (INFO) https://www.estimize.com/info Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IHS Markit* (sticker symbol INFO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
246 Estimates for Illinois Tool Works (ITW) https://www.estimize.com/itw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illinois Tool Works* (sticker symbol ITW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
247 Estimates for Illumina Inc (ILMN) https://www.estimize.com/ilmn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Illumina Inc* (sticker symbol ILMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
248 Estimates for Incyte (INCY) https://www.estimize.com/incy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Incyte* (sticker symbol INCY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
249 Estimates for Ingersoll Rand (IR) https://www.estimize.com/ir Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ingersoll Rand* (sticker symbol IR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
250 Estimates for Intel Corp. (INTC) https://www.estimize.com/intc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intel Corp.* (sticker symbol INTC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
251 Estimates for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) https://www.estimize.com/ice Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intercontinental Exchange* (sticker symbol ICE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
252 Estimates for International Business Machines (IBM) https://www.estimize.com/ibm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Business Machines* (sticker symbol IBM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
253 Estimates for International Paper (IP) https://www.estimize.com/ip Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Paper* (sticker symbol IP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
254 Estimates for Interpublic Group (IPG) https://www.estimize.com/ipg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Interpublic Group* (sticker symbol IPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
255 Estimates for International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) https://www.estimize.com/iff Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *International Flavors & Fragrances* (sticker symbol IFF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
256 Estimates for Intuit Inc. (INTU) https://www.estimize.com/intu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuit Inc.* (sticker symbol INTU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
257 Estimates for Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG) https://www.estimize.com/isrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Intuitive Surgical Inc.* (sticker symbol ISRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
258 Estimates for Invesco Ltd. (IVZ) https://www.estimize.com/ivz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Invesco Ltd.* (sticker symbol IVZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
259 Estimates for IPG Photonics Corp. (IPGP) https://www.estimize.com/ipgp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IPG Photonics Corp.* (sticker symbol IPGP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
260 Estimates for IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV) https://www.estimize.com/iqv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *IQVIA Holdings Inc.* (sticker symbol IQV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
261 Estimates for Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) https://www.estimize.com/irm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Iron Mountain Incorporated* (sticker symbol IRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
262 Estimates for Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) https://www.estimize.com/jkhy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jack Henry & Associates* (sticker symbol JKHY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
263 Estimates for Jacobs Engineering Group (J) https://www.estimize.com/j Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Jacobs Engineering Group* (sticker symbol J). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
264 Estimates for J. B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) https://www.estimize.com/jbht Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *J. B. Hunt Transport Services* (sticker symbol JBHT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
265 Estimates for JM Smucker (SJM) https://www.estimize.com/sjm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JM Smucker* (sticker symbol SJM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
266 Estimates for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) https://www.estimize.com/jnj Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson & Johnson* (sticker symbol JNJ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
267 Estimates for Johnson Controls International (JCI) https://www.estimize.com/jci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Johnson Controls International* (sticker symbol JCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
268 Estimates for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) https://www.estimize.com/jpm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *JPMorgan Chase & Co.* (sticker symbol JPM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
269 Estimates for Juniper Networks (JNPR) https://www.estimize.com/jnpr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Juniper Networks* (sticker symbol JNPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
270 Estimates for Kansas City Southern (KSU) https://www.estimize.com/ksu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kansas City Southern* (sticker symbol KSU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
271 Estimates for Kellogg Co. (K) https://www.estimize.com/k Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kellogg Co.* (sticker symbol K). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
272 Estimates for KeyCorp (KEY) https://www.estimize.com/key Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KeyCorp* (sticker symbol KEY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
273 Estimates for Keysight Technologies (KEYS) https://www.estimize.com/keys Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Keysight Technologies* (sticker symbol KEYS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
274 Estimates for Kimberly-Clark (KMB) https://www.estimize.com/kmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimberly-Clark* (sticker symbol KMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
275 Estimates for Kimco Realty (KIM) https://www.estimize.com/kim Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kimco Realty* (sticker symbol KIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
276 Estimates for Kinder Morgan (KMI) https://www.estimize.com/kmi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kinder Morgan* (sticker symbol KMI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
277 Estimates for KLA Corporation (KLAC) https://www.estimize.com/klac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *KLA Corporation* (sticker symbol KLAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
278 Estimates for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) https://www.estimize.com/khc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kraft Heinz Co* (sticker symbol KHC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
279 Estimates for Kroger Co. (KR) https://www.estimize.com/kr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Kroger Co.* (sticker symbol KR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
280 Estimates for L Brands Inc. (LB) https://www.estimize.com/lb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L Brands Inc.* (sticker symbol LB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
281 Estimates for L3Harris Technologies (LHX) https://www.estimize.com/lhx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *L3Harris Technologies* (sticker symbol LHX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
282 Estimates for Laboratory Corp. of America Holding (LH) https://www.estimize.com/lh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Laboratory Corp. of America Holding* (sticker symbol LH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
283 Estimates for Lam Research (LRCX) https://www.estimize.com/lrcx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lam Research* (sticker symbol LRCX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
284 Estimates for Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW) https://www.estimize.com/lw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lamb Weston Holdings Inc* (sticker symbol LW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
285 Estimates for Las Vegas Sands (LVS) https://www.estimize.com/lvs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Las Vegas Sands* (sticker symbol LVS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
286 Estimates for Leggett & Platt (LEG) https://www.estimize.com/leg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leggett & Platt* (sticker symbol LEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
287 Estimates for Leidos Holdings (LDOS) https://www.estimize.com/ldos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Leidos Holdings* (sticker symbol LDOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
288 Estimates for Lennar Corp. (LEN) https://www.estimize.com/len Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lennar Corp.* (sticker symbol LEN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
289 Estimates for Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY) https://www.estimize.com/lly Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lilly (Eli) & Co.* (sticker symbol LLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
290 Estimates for Lincoln National (LNC) https://www.estimize.com/lnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lincoln National* (sticker symbol LNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
291 Estimates for Linde plc (LIN) https://www.estimize.com/lin Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Linde plc* (sticker symbol LIN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
292 Estimates for Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) https://www.estimize.com/lyv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Live Nation Entertainment* (sticker symbol LYV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
293 Estimates for LKQ Corporation (LKQ) https://www.estimize.com/lkq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LKQ Corporation* (sticker symbol LKQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
294 Estimates for Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) https://www.estimize.com/lmt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lockheed Martin Corp.* (sticker symbol LMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
295 Estimates for Loews Corp. (L) https://www.estimize.com/l Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Loews Corp.* (sticker symbol L). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
296 Estimates for Lowe's Cos. (LOW) https://www.estimize.com/low Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lowe's Cos.* (sticker symbol LOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
297 Estimates for Lumen Technologies (LUMN) https://www.estimize.com/lumn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Lumen Technologies* (sticker symbol LUMN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
298 Estimates for LyondellBasell (LYB) https://www.estimize.com/lyb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *LyondellBasell* (sticker symbol LYB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
299 Estimates for M&T Bank (MTB) https://www.estimize.com/mtb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *M&T Bank* (sticker symbol MTB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
300 Estimates for Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) https://www.estimize.com/mro Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Oil Corp.* (sticker symbol MRO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
301 Estimates for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) https://www.estimize.com/mpc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marathon Petroleum* (sticker symbol MPC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
302 Estimates for MarketAxess (MKTX) https://www.estimize.com/mktx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MarketAxess* (sticker symbol MKTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
303 Estimates for Marriott International (MAR) https://www.estimize.com/mar Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marriott International* (sticker symbol MAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
304 Estimates for Marsh & McLennan (MMC) https://www.estimize.com/mmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Marsh & McLennan* (sticker symbol MMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
305 Estimates for Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) https://www.estimize.com/mlm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Martin Marietta Materials* (sticker symbol MLM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
306 Estimates for Masco Corp. (MAS) https://www.estimize.com/mas Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Masco Corp.* (sticker symbol MAS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
307 Estimates for Mastercard Inc. (MA) https://www.estimize.com/ma Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mastercard Inc.* (sticker symbol MA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
308 Estimates for McCormick & Co. (MKC) https://www.estimize.com/mkc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McCormick & Co.* (sticker symbol MKC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
309 Estimates for Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) https://www.estimize.com/mxim Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Maxim Integrated Products* (sticker symbol MXIM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
310 Estimates for McDonald's Corp. (MCD) https://www.estimize.com/mcd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McDonald's Corp.* (sticker symbol MCD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
311 Estimates for McKesson Corp. (MCK) https://www.estimize.com/mck Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *McKesson Corp.* (sticker symbol MCK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
312 Estimates for Medtronic plc (MDT) https://www.estimize.com/mdt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Medtronic plc* (sticker symbol MDT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
313 Estimates for Merck & Co. (MRK) https://www.estimize.com/mrk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Merck & Co.* (sticker symbol MRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
314 Estimates for MetLife Inc. (MET) https://www.estimize.com/met Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MetLife Inc.* (sticker symbol MET). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
315 Estimates for Mettler Toledo (MTD) https://www.estimize.com/mtd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mettler Toledo* (sticker symbol MTD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
316 Estimates for MGM Resorts International (MGM) https://www.estimize.com/mgm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MGM Resorts International* (sticker symbol MGM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
317 Estimates for Microchip Technology (MCHP) https://www.estimize.com/mchp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microchip Technology* (sticker symbol MCHP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
318 Estimates for Micron Technology (MU) https://www.estimize.com/mu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Micron Technology* (sticker symbol MU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
319 Estimates for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) https://www.estimize.com/msft Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Microsoft Corp.* (sticker symbol MSFT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
320 Estimates for Mid-America Apartments (MAA) https://www.estimize.com/maa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mid-America Apartments* (sticker symbol MAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
321 Estimates for Mohawk Industries (MHK) https://www.estimize.com/mhk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mohawk Industries* (sticker symbol MHK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
322 Estimates for Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) https://www.estimize.com/tap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Molson Coors Beverage Company* (sticker symbol TAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
323 Estimates for Mondelez International (MDLZ) https://www.estimize.com/mdlz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Mondelez International* (sticker symbol MDLZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
324 Estimates for Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) https://www.estimize.com/mpwr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monolithic Power Systems* (sticker symbol MPWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
325 Estimates for Monster Beverage (MNST) https://www.estimize.com/mnst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Monster Beverage* (sticker symbol MNST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
326 Estimates for Moody's Corp (MCO) https://www.estimize.com/mco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Moody's Corp* (sticker symbol MCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
327 Estimates for Morgan Stanley (MS) https://www.estimize.com/ms Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Morgan Stanley* (sticker symbol MS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
328 Estimates for The Mosaic Company (MOS) https://www.estimize.com/mos Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Mosaic Company* (sticker symbol MOS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
329 Estimates for Motorola Solutions Inc. (MSI) https://www.estimize.com/msi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Motorola Solutions Inc.* (sticker symbol MSI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
330 Estimates for MSCI Inc (MSCI) https://www.estimize.com/msci Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *MSCI Inc* (sticker symbol MSCI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
331 Estimates for "Nasdaq (NDAQ) https://www.estimize.com/ndaq Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Nasdaq* (sticker symbol NDAQ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
332 Estimates for NetApp (NTAP) https://www.estimize.com/ntap Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NetApp* (sticker symbol NTAP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
333 Estimates for Netflix Inc. (NFLX) https://www.estimize.com/nflx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Netflix Inc.* (sticker symbol NFLX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
334 Estimates for Newell Brands (NWL) https://www.estimize.com/nwl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newell Brands* (sticker symbol NWL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
335 Estimates for Newmont Corporation (NEM) https://www.estimize.com/nem Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Newmont Corporation* (sticker symbol NEM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
336 Estimates for News Corp (Class A) (NWSA) https://www.estimize.com/nwsa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class A)* (sticker symbol NWSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
337 Estimates for News Corp (Class B) (NWS) https://www.estimize.com/nws Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *News Corp (Class B)* (sticker symbol NWS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
338 Estimates for NextEra Energy (NEE) https://www.estimize.com/nee Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NextEra Energy* (sticker symbol NEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
339 Estimates for Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) https://www.estimize.com/nlsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nielsen Holdings* (sticker symbol NLSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
340 Estimates for "Nike (NKE) https://www.estimize.com/nke Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Nike* (sticker symbol NKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
341 Estimates for NiSource Inc. (NI) https://www.estimize.com/ni Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NiSource Inc.* (sticker symbol NI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
342 Estimates for Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) https://www.estimize.com/nsc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norfolk Southern Corp.* (sticker symbol NSC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
343 Estimates for Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS) https://www.estimize.com/ntrs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northern Trust Corp.* (sticker symbol NTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
344 Estimates for Northrop Grumman (NOC) https://www.estimize.com/noc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Northrop Grumman* (sticker symbol NOC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
345 Estimates for NortonLifeLock (NLOK) https://www.estimize.com/nlok Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NortonLifeLock* (sticker symbol NLOK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
346 Estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) https://www.estimize.com/nclh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings* (sticker symbol NCLH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
347 Estimates for NOV Inc. (NOV) https://www.estimize.com/nov Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NOV Inc.* (sticker symbol NOV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
348 Estimates for NRG Energy (NRG) https://www.estimize.com/nrg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *NRG Energy* (sticker symbol NRG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
349 Estimates for Nucor Corp. (NUE) https://www.estimize.com/nue Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nucor Corp.* (sticker symbol NUE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
350 Estimates for Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) https://www.estimize.com/nvda Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Nvidia Corporation* (sticker symbol NVDA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
351 Estimates for "NVR (NVR) https://www.estimize.com/nvr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"NVR* (sticker symbol NVR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
352 Estimates for O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) https://www.estimize.com/orly Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *O'Reilly Automotive* (sticker symbol ORLY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
353 Estimates for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) https://www.estimize.com/oxy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Occidental Petroleum* (sticker symbol OXY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
354 Estimates for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) https://www.estimize.com/odfl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Old Dominion Freight Line* (sticker symbol ODFL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
355 Estimates for Omnicom Group (OMC) https://www.estimize.com/omc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Omnicom Group* (sticker symbol OMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
356 Estimates for Oneok (OKE) https://www.estimize.com/oke Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oneok* (sticker symbol OKE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
357 Estimates for Oracle Corp. (ORCL) https://www.estimize.com/orcl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Oracle Corp.* (sticker symbol ORCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
358 Estimates for Otis Worldwide (OTIS) https://www.estimize.com/otis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Otis Worldwide* (sticker symbol OTIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
359 Estimates for Paccar (PCAR) https://www.estimize.com/pcar Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paccar* (sticker symbol PCAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
360 Estimates for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) https://www.estimize.com/pkg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Packaging Corporation of America* (sticker symbol PKG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
361 Estimates for Parker-Hannifin (PH) https://www.estimize.com/ph Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Parker-Hannifin* (sticker symbol PH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
362 Estimates for Paychex Inc. (PAYX) https://www.estimize.com/payx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paychex Inc.* (sticker symbol PAYX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
363 Estimates for Paycom (PAYC) https://www.estimize.com/payc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Paycom* (sticker symbol PAYC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
364 Estimates for PayPal (PYPL) https://www.estimize.com/pypl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PayPal* (sticker symbol PYPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
365 Estimates for Pentair plc (PNR) https://www.estimize.com/pnr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pentair plc* (sticker symbol PNR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
366 Estimates for People's United Financial (PBCT) https://www.estimize.com/pbct Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *People's United Financial* (sticker symbol PBCT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
367 Estimates for PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) https://www.estimize.com/pep Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PepsiCo Inc.* (sticker symbol PEP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
368 Estimates for PerkinElmer (PKI) https://www.estimize.com/pki Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PerkinElmer* (sticker symbol PKI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
369 Estimates for Perrigo (PRGO) https://www.estimize.com/prgo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Perrigo* (sticker symbol PRGO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
370 Estimates for Pfizer Inc. (PFE) https://www.estimize.com/pfe Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pfizer Inc.* (sticker symbol PFE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
371 Estimates for Philip Morris International (PM) https://www.estimize.com/pm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Philip Morris International* (sticker symbol PM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
372 Estimates for Phillips 66 (PSX) https://www.estimize.com/psx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Phillips 66* (sticker symbol PSX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
373 Estimates for Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) https://www.estimize.com/pnw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pinnacle West Capital* (sticker symbol PNW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
374 Estimates for Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) https://www.estimize.com/pxd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pioneer Natural Resources* (sticker symbol PXD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
375 Estimates for PNC Financial Services (PNC) https://www.estimize.com/pnc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PNC Financial Services* (sticker symbol PNC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
376 Estimates for Pool Corporation (POOL) https://www.estimize.com/pool Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Pool Corporation* (sticker symbol POOL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
377 Estimates for PPG Industries (PPG) https://www.estimize.com/ppg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPG Industries* (sticker symbol PPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
378 Estimates for PPL Corp. (PPL) https://www.estimize.com/ppl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PPL Corp.* (sticker symbol PPL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
379 Estimates for Principal Financial Group (PFG) https://www.estimize.com/pfg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Principal Financial Group* (sticker symbol PFG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
380 Estimates for Procter & Gamble (PG) https://www.estimize.com/pg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Procter & Gamble* (sticker symbol PG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
381 Estimates for Progressive Corp. (PGR) https://www.estimize.com/pgr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Progressive Corp.* (sticker symbol PGR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
382 Estimates for Prologis (PLD) https://www.estimize.com/pld Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prologis* (sticker symbol PLD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
383 Estimates for Prudential Financial (PRU) https://www.estimize.com/pru Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Prudential Financial* (sticker symbol PRU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
384 Estimates for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) (PEG) https://www.estimize.com/peg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)* (sticker symbol PEG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
385 Estimates for Public Storage (PSA) https://www.estimize.com/psa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Public Storage* (sticker symbol PSA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
386 Estimates for PulteGroup (PHM) https://www.estimize.com/phm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PulteGroup* (sticker symbol PHM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
387 Estimates for PVH Corp. (PVH) https://www.estimize.com/pvh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *PVH Corp.* (sticker symbol PVH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
388 Estimates for Qorvo (QRVO) https://www.estimize.com/qrvo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qorvo* (sticker symbol QRVO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
389 Estimates for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR) https://www.estimize.com/pwr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quanta Services Inc.* (sticker symbol PWR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
390 Estimates for Qualcomm (QCOM) https://www.estimize.com/qcom Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Qualcomm* (sticker symbol QCOM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
391 Estimates for Quest Diagnostics (DGX) https://www.estimize.com/dgx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Quest Diagnostics* (sticker symbol DGX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
392 Estimates for Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) https://www.estimize.com/rl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ralph Lauren Corporation* (sticker symbol RL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
393 Estimates for Raymond James Financial (RJF) https://www.estimize.com/rjf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raymond James Financial* (sticker symbol RJF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
394 Estimates for Raytheon Technologies (RTX) https://www.estimize.com/rtx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Raytheon Technologies* (sticker symbol RTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
395 Estimates for Realty Income Corporation (O) https://www.estimize.com/o Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Realty Income Corporation* (sticker symbol O). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
396 Estimates for Regency Centers Corporation (REG) https://www.estimize.com/reg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regency Centers Corporation* (sticker symbol REG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
397 Estimates for Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) https://www.estimize.com/regn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regeneron Pharmaceuticals* (sticker symbol REGN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
398 Estimates for Regions Financial Corp. (RF) https://www.estimize.com/rf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Regions Financial Corp.* (sticker symbol RF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
399 Estimates for Republic Services Inc (RSG) https://www.estimize.com/rsg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Republic Services Inc* (sticker symbol RSG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
400 Estimates for ResMed (RMD) https://www.estimize.com/rmd Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ResMed* (sticker symbol RMD). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
401 Estimates for Robert Half International (RHI) https://www.estimize.com/rhi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Robert Half International* (sticker symbol RHI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
402 Estimates for Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) https://www.estimize.com/rok Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Rockwell Automation Inc.* (sticker symbol ROK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
403 Estimates for "Rollins (ROL) https://www.estimize.com/rol Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Rollins* (sticker symbol ROL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
404 Estimates for Roper Technologies (ROP) https://www.estimize.com/rop Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Roper Technologies* (sticker symbol ROP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
405 Estimates for Ross Stores (ROST) https://www.estimize.com/rost Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ross Stores* (sticker symbol ROST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
406 Estimates for Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) https://www.estimize.com/rcl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Royal Caribbean Group* (sticker symbol RCL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
407 Estimates for S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) https://www.estimize.com/spgi Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *S&P Global Inc.* (sticker symbol SPGI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
408 Estimates for Salesforce.com (CRM) https://www.estimize.com/crm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Salesforce.com* (sticker symbol CRM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
409 Estimates for SBA Communications (SBAC) https://www.estimize.com/sbac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SBA Communications* (sticker symbol SBAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
410 Estimates for Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB) https://www.estimize.com/slb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Schlumberger Ltd.* (sticker symbol SLB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
411 Estimates for Seagate Technology (STX) https://www.estimize.com/stx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Seagate Technology* (sticker symbol STX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
412 Estimates for Sealed Air (SEE) https://www.estimize.com/see Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sealed Air* (sticker symbol SEE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
413 Estimates for Sempra Energy (SRE) https://www.estimize.com/sre Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sempra Energy* (sticker symbol SRE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
414 Estimates for ServiceNow (NOW) https://www.estimize.com/now Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ServiceNow* (sticker symbol NOW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
415 Estimates for Sherwin-Williams (SHW) https://www.estimize.com/shw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sherwin-Williams* (sticker symbol SHW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
416 Estimates for Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) https://www.estimize.com/spg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Simon Property Group Inc* (sticker symbol SPG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
417 Estimates for Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) https://www.estimize.com/swks Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Skyworks Solutions* (sticker symbol SWKS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
418 Estimates for SL Green Realty (SLG) https://www.estimize.com/slg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SL Green Realty* (sticker symbol SLG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
419 Estimates for Snap-on (SNA) https://www.estimize.com/sna Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Snap-on* (sticker symbol SNA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
420 Estimates for Southern Company (SO) https://www.estimize.com/so Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southern Company* (sticker symbol SO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
421 Estimates for Southwest Airlines (LUV) https://www.estimize.com/luv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Southwest Airlines* (sticker symbol LUV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
422 Estimates for Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) https://www.estimize.com/swk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stanley Black & Decker* (sticker symbol SWK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
423 Estimates for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) https://www.estimize.com/sbux Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Starbucks Corp.* (sticker symbol SBUX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
424 Estimates for State Street Corp. (STT) https://www.estimize.com/stt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *State Street Corp.* (sticker symbol STT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
425 Estimates for Steris (STE) https://www.estimize.com/ste Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Steris* (sticker symbol STE). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
426 Estimates for Stryker Corp. (SYK) https://www.estimize.com/syk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Stryker Corp.* (sticker symbol SYK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
427 Estimates for SVB Financial (SIVB) https://www.estimize.com/sivb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *SVB Financial* (sticker symbol SIVB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
428 Estimates for Synchrony Financial (SYF) https://www.estimize.com/syf Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synchrony Financial* (sticker symbol SYF). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
429 Estimates for Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) https://www.estimize.com/snps Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Synopsys Inc.* (sticker symbol SNPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
430 Estimates for Sysco Corp. (SYY) https://www.estimize.com/syy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Sysco Corp.* (sticker symbol SYY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
431 Estimates for T-Mobile US (TMUS) https://www.estimize.com/tmus Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T-Mobile US* (sticker symbol TMUS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
432 Estimates for T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) https://www.estimize.com/trow Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *T. Rowe Price Group* (sticker symbol TROW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
433 Estimates for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) https://www.estimize.com/ttwo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Take-Two Interactive* (sticker symbol TTWO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
434 Estimates for "Tapestry (TPR) https://www.estimize.com/tpr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Tapestry* (sticker symbol TPR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
435 Estimates for Target Corp. (TGT) https://www.estimize.com/tgt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Target Corp.* (sticker symbol TGT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
436 Estimates for TE Connectivity Ltd. (TEL) https://www.estimize.com/tel Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TE Connectivity Ltd.* (sticker symbol TEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
437 Estimates for Teledyne Technologies (TDY) https://www.estimize.com/tdy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teledyne Technologies* (sticker symbol TDY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
438 Estimates for Teleflex (TFX) https://www.estimize.com/tfx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teleflex* (sticker symbol TFX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
439 Estimates for Teradyne (TER) https://www.estimize.com/ter Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Teradyne* (sticker symbol TER). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
440 Estimates for "Tesla (TSLA) https://www.estimize.com/tsla Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Tesla* (sticker symbol TSLA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
441 Estimates for Texas Instruments (TXN) https://www.estimize.com/txn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Texas Instruments* (sticker symbol TXN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
442 Estimates for Textron Inc. (TXT) https://www.estimize.com/txt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Textron Inc.* (sticker symbol TXT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
443 Estimates for Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) https://www.estimize.com/tmo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Thermo Fisher Scientific* (sticker symbol TMO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
444 Estimates for TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) https://www.estimize.com/tjx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TJX Companies Inc.* (sticker symbol TJX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
445 Estimates for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) https://www.estimize.com/tsco Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tractor Supply Company* (sticker symbol TSCO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
446 Estimates for Trane Technologies plc (TT) https://www.estimize.com/tt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trane Technologies plc* (sticker symbol TT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
447 Estimates for TransDigm Group (TDG) https://www.estimize.com/tdg Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *TransDigm Group* (sticker symbol TDG). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
448 Estimates for The Travelers Companies (TRV) https://www.estimize.com/trv Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Travelers Companies* (sticker symbol TRV). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
449 Estimates for Trimble Inc. (TRMB) https://www.estimize.com/trmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Trimble Inc.* (sticker symbol TRMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
450 Estimates for Truist Financial (TFC) https://www.estimize.com/tfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Truist Financial* (sticker symbol TFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
451 Estimates for "Twitter (TWTR) https://www.estimize.com/twtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"Twitter* (sticker symbol TWTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
452 Estimates for Tyler Technologies (TYL) https://www.estimize.com/tyl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyler Technologies* (sticker symbol TYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
453 Estimates for Tyson Foods (TSN) https://www.estimize.com/tsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Tyson Foods* (sticker symbol TSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
454 Estimates for "UDR (UDR) https://www.estimize.com/udr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"UDR* (sticker symbol UDR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
455 Estimates for Ulta Beauty (ULTA) https://www.estimize.com/ulta Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ulta Beauty* (sticker symbol ULTA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
456 Estimates for U.S. Bancorp (USB) https://www.estimize.com/usb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *U.S. Bancorp* (sticker symbol USB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
457 Estimates for Under Armour (Class A) (UAA) https://www.estimize.com/uaa Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class A)* (sticker symbol UAA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
458 Estimates for Under Armour (Class C) (UA) https://www.estimize.com/ua Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Under Armour (Class C)* (sticker symbol UA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
459 Estimates for Union Pacific Corp (UNP) https://www.estimize.com/unp Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Union Pacific Corp* (sticker symbol UNP). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
460 Estimates for United Airlines Holdings (UAL) https://www.estimize.com/ual Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Airlines Holdings* (sticker symbol UAL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
461 Estimates for UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) https://www.estimize.com/unh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *UnitedHealth Group Inc.* (sticker symbol UNH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
462 Estimates for United Parcel Service (UPS) https://www.estimize.com/ups Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *United Parcel Service* (sticker symbol UPS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
463 Estimates for "United Rentals (URI) https://www.estimize.com/uri Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *"United Rentals* (sticker symbol URI). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
464 Estimates for Universal Health Services (UHS) https://www.estimize.com/uhs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Universal Health Services* (sticker symbol UHS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
465 Estimates for Unum Group (UNM) https://www.estimize.com/unm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Unum Group* (sticker symbol UNM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
466 Estimates for Valero Energy (VLO) https://www.estimize.com/vlo Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Valero Energy* (sticker symbol VLO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
467 Estimates for Varian Medical Systems (VAR) https://www.estimize.com/var Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Varian Medical Systems* (sticker symbol VAR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
468 Estimates for Ventas Inc (VTR) https://www.estimize.com/vtr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Ventas Inc* (sticker symbol VTR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
469 Estimates for Verisign Inc. (VRSN) https://www.estimize.com/vrsn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisign Inc.* (sticker symbol VRSN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
470 Estimates for Verisk Analytics (VRSK) https://www.estimize.com/vrsk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verisk Analytics* (sticker symbol VRSK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
471 Estimates for Verizon Communications (VZ) https://www.estimize.com/vz Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Verizon Communications* (sticker symbol VZ). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
472 Estimates for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) https://www.estimize.com/vrtx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc* (sticker symbol VRTX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
473 Estimates for VF Corporation (VFC) https://www.estimize.com/vfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *VF Corporation* (sticker symbol VFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
474 Estimates for ViacomCBS (VIAC) https://www.estimize.com/viac Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *ViacomCBS* (sticker symbol VIAC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
475 Estimates for Viatris (VTRS) https://www.estimize.com/vtrs Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Viatris* (sticker symbol VTRS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
476 Estimates for Visa Inc. (V) https://www.estimize.com/v Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Visa Inc.* (sticker symbol V). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
477 Estimates for Vontier (VNT) https://www.estimize.com/vnt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vontier* (sticker symbol VNT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
478 Estimates for Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) https://www.estimize.com/vno Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vornado Realty Trust* (sticker symbol VNO). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
479 Estimates for Vulcan Materials (VMC) https://www.estimize.com/vmc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Vulcan Materials* (sticker symbol VMC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
480 Estimates for W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) https://www.estimize.com/wrb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *W. R. Berkley Corporation* (sticker symbol WRB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
481 Estimates for Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp (WAB) https://www.estimize.com/wab Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp* (sticker symbol WAB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
482 Estimates for Walmart (WMT) https://www.estimize.com/wmt Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walmart* (sticker symbol WMT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
483 Estimates for Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) https://www.estimize.com/wba Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Walgreens Boots Alliance* (sticker symbol WBA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
484 Estimates for The Walt Disney Company (DIS) https://www.estimize.com/dis Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *The Walt Disney Company* (sticker symbol DIS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
485 Estimates for Waste Management Inc. (WM) https://www.estimize.com/wm Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waste Management Inc.* (sticker symbol WM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
486 Estimates for Waters Corporation (WAT) https://www.estimize.com/wat Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Waters Corporation* (sticker symbol WAT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
487 Estimates for WEC Energy Group (WEC) https://www.estimize.com/wec Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WEC Energy Group* (sticker symbol WEC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
488 Estimates for Wells Fargo (WFC) https://www.estimize.com/wfc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wells Fargo* (sticker symbol WFC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
489 Estimates for Welltower Inc. (WELL) https://www.estimize.com/well Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Welltower Inc.* (sticker symbol WELL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
490 Estimates for West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) https://www.estimize.com/wst Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *West Pharmaceutical Services* (sticker symbol WST). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
491 Estimates for Western Digital (WDC) https://www.estimize.com/wdc Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Digital* (sticker symbol WDC). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
492 Estimates for Western Union Co (WU) https://www.estimize.com/wu Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Western Union Co* (sticker symbol WU). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
493 Estimates for WestRock (WRK) https://www.estimize.com/wrk Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *WestRock* (sticker symbol WRK). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
494 Estimates for Weyerhaeuser (WY) https://www.estimize.com/wy Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Weyerhaeuser* (sticker symbol WY). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
495 Estimates for Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) https://www.estimize.com/whr Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Whirlpool Corp.* (sticker symbol WHR). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
496 Estimates for Williams Companies (WMB) https://www.estimize.com/wmb Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Williams Companies* (sticker symbol WMB). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
497 Estimates for Willis Towers Watson (WLTW) https://www.estimize.com/wltw Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Willis Towers Watson* (sticker symbol WLTW). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
498 Estimates for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) https://www.estimize.com/wynn Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Wynn Resorts Ltd* (sticker symbol WYNN). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
499 Estimates for Xcel Energy Inc (XEL) https://www.estimize.com/xel Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xcel Energy Inc* (sticker symbol XEL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
500 Estimates for Xerox (XRX) https://www.estimize.com/xrx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xerox* (sticker symbol XRX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
501 Estimates for Xilinx (XLNX) https://www.estimize.com/xlnx Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xilinx* (sticker symbol XLNX). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
502 Estimates for Xylem Inc. (XYL) https://www.estimize.com/xyl Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Xylem Inc.* (sticker symbol XYL). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
503 Estimates for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) https://www.estimize.com/yum Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Yum! Brands Inc* (sticker symbol YUM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
504 Estimates for Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) https://www.estimize.com/zbra Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zebra Technologies* (sticker symbol ZBRA). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
505 Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) https://www.estimize.com/zbh Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
506 Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION) https://www.estimize.com/zion Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2
507 Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS) https://www.estimize.com/zts Estimize A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free [] 2

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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href=""https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html"" target=""_blank"">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 360,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 410,000 but less than 470,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 540,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""<a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70"" target=""_blank"">next waves</a>"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href=""https://covid19.who.int/"" target=""_blank"">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href=""https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/"" target=""_blank"">here</a> each day.","[{""name"":""Less than 275,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 300,000 but less than 350,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","[{""name"":""Fewer than 200 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",,"[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","[{""name"":""Before 1 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href=""https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390"" target=""_blank"">criticized</a> for being <a href=""https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP"" target=""_blank"">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href=""https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html"" target=""_blank"">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.","[{""name"":""Before 1 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 November 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","[{""name"":""Before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment","The <a href=""https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020"" target=""_blank"">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href=""https://tokyo2020.org/en/"" target=""_blank"">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href=""https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again"" target=""_blank"">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href=""https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html"" target=""_blank"">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","[{""name"":""The Games will begin"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be postponed again by more than a day"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Games will be cancelled"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","In its 2020 report, The <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices"" target=""_blank"">Conference</a> <a href=""https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf"" target=""_blank"">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive"" target=""_blank"">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href=""https://www.conference-board.org/us/"" target=""_blank"">report</a>. ","[{""name"":""Less than 23%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 27%"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The International Monetary Fund (<a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020"" target=""_blank"">IMF</a>) and <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering"" target=""_blank"">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href=""https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/"" target=""_blank"">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href=""https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending"" target=""_blank"">website</a>, choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href=""https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls"" target=""_blank"">April 2020</a> report.","[{""name"":""Lower by more than 8%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive "",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% "",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 4%"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Interest in <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter"" target=""_blank"">sustainable</a> <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us"" target=""_blank"">sector</a> <a href=""https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs"" target=""_blank"">investment</a> <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule"" target=""_blank"">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows"" target=""_blank"">data</a> from <a href=""https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records"" target=""_blank"">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021.","[{""name"":""At or below 2020 levels"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by between 0% and 100%"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher by more than 100%"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","Dozens of companies are trying to <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">can</a> be <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank""> found</a> <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). ","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href=""https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits"" target=""_blank"">workers</a> to work from <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487"" target=""_blank"">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href=""https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain"" target=""_blank"">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.","[{""name"":""10% or less"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10% but less than 20%"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 30%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,4
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows" target="_blank">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the "TABLE" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for "World," and see the relevant number in the column titled "End." The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
3 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based on reporting provided by <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins</a> of total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US through and including 31 March 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 360,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 360,000 and 410,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 410,000 but less than 470,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 470,000 and 540,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 540,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
4 As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as "<a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-pandemics-italy-madrid-eastern-europe-159a68a460337948d25281c153994c70" target="_blank">next waves</a>" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) <a href="https://covid19.who.int/" target="_blank">Dashboard</a>. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1szi8i948AJRAqlYG82NhcW0qDMuLm6UlAyW_AbFsQ_0/" target="_blank">here</a> each day. [{"name":"Less than 275,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 300,000 but less than 350,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
5 How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4" target="_blank">here</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083" target="_blank">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438. [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 200 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 billion","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
6 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
7 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment This question was commissioned by <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">companies</a> are trying to <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19" target="_blank">FDA</a> has authorized <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">here</a>. "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">Compassionate use</a>" and "<a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank">emergency use</a>" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
8 When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390" target="_blank">criticized</a> for being <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP" target="_blank">slow</a>. The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institut</a> [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 November 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
9 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history" target="_blank">pushing</a> to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325" target="_blank">execute</a> its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech" target="_blank">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus" target="_blank">UK</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976" target="_blank">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 September 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
10 When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/" target="_blank">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" reported by the TSA (<a href="https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput" target="_blank">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column "2021 Traveler Throughput" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers. [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.51,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 July 2021","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
11 What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment The <a href="https://www.olympic.org/tokyo-2020" target="_blank">Games</a> of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in <a href="https://tokyo2020.org/en/" target="_blank">Tokyo</a>. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been <a href="https://japantoday.com/category/sports/postponed-tokyo-olympics-hit-1-year-to-go-mark-again" target="_blank">postponed</a> to 23 July 2021. Public <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/07/342812540942-urgent-59-discontent-with-japan-govt-response-to-pandemic-poll.html" target="_blank">opinion</a> in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games. [{"name":"The Games will begin","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be postponed again by more than a day","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Games will be cancelled","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
12 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment In its 2020 report, The <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices" target="_blank">Conference</a> <a href="https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf" target="_blank">Board</a> reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive" target="_blank">board</a> members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/us/" target="_blank">report</a>. [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 23%","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 27%","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
13 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The International Monetary Fund (<a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020" target="_blank">IMF</a>) and <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering" target="_blank">others</a> are projecting a significant <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/" target="_blank">contraction</a> in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending" target="_blank">website</a>, choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls" target="_blank">April 2020</a> report. [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower by more than 8%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 4%","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
14 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Interest in <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter" target="_blank">sustainable</a> <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us" target="_blank">sector</a> <a href="https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs" target="_blank">investment</a> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule" target="_blank">has</a> been high in Europe and is increasing in the US; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows" target="_blank">data</a> from <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records" target="_blank">Morningstar</a> for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the US for 2020 and 2021. [{"name":"At or below 2020 levels","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by between 0% and 100%","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher by more than 100%","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
15 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment Dozens of companies are trying to <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines" target="_blank">develop</a> a <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine" target="_blank">viable</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html" target="_blank">vaccine</a> for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived <a href="https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101" target="_blank">can</a> be <a href="https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization" target="_blank"> found</a> <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">here</a>. "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access" target="_blank">count</a>. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm" target="_blank">2018-2019</a> flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4
16 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?</a> https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits" target="_blank">workers</a> to work from <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487" target="_blank">home</a>, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain" target="_blank">ONS</a> reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"10% or less","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10% but less than 20%","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 20% and 30%, inclusive","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4

56
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
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@ -7,12 +7,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.25,
"probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.71,
"probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -119,12 +119,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
"probability": 0.19,
"probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.76,
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -142,7 +142,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -162,7 +162,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -181,12 +181,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.85,
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.15,
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -220,12 +220,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.76,
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.13,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -249,12 +249,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.96,
"probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -278,22 +278,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.51,
"probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0.41,
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.03,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -336,17 +336,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.24,
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.72,
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -360,7 +360,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lower by more than 8%",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -370,17 +370,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.09,
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.77,
"probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
"probability": 0.12,
"probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -418,7 +418,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 April 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -438,7 +438,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -452,17 +452,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "10% or less",
"probability": 0.02,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.8,
"probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.17,
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{

269
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,109 +1,116 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for ""All items"" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.
","[{""name"":""Lower than 1.7%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher than 3.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5","5",3
"Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
","[{""name"":""The Father"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Judas and the Black Messiah"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sound of Metal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""The Trial of the Chicago 7"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3
"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing","Good Judgment Open","The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)).
","[{""name"":""Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mank (David Fincher)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A tie or other outcome"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1","1",3
"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47","37",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","64","46",3
"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","67","57",3
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","82","67",3
"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","38","35",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45","42",3
"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","40","36",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","46","42",3
"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","48","34",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","67",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","104","69",3
"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","44","32",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","113","55",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","55",3
"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click ""Export"" for file download options).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","81","35",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","36",3
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","74",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","227","76",3
"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021. 
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","305","112",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","116",3
"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","62",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","66",3
"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99).
NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","123","71",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","127","73",3
"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70","39",3
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","72","40",3
"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","453","352",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","459","354",3
"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)).
NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","251",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","333","252",3
"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","344","304",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","348","307",3
"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","202","177",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","207","179",3
"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","238","178",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","242","180",3
"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63","24",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","65","24",3
"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","146","88",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","148","89",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109","48",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","116","49",3
"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","115","53",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","120","55",3
"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)).
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","447","314",3
","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","455","318",3
"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","69","45",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","70","45",3
"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","73",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","157","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","180","73",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","183","74",3
"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)).
NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","87","50",3
"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","193","110",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","206","114",3
"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","133",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","173","134",3
"Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","165","116",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","168","119",3
"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","150","82",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","151","83",3
"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)).
","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","51",3
","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","131","52",3
"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","144","85",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","145","85",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","108","71",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","73",3
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","262","108",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","265","109",3
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","139",3
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","237","140",3
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","139","74",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","90","55",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","92","55",3
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","61",3
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","86","64",3
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","196","84",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","199","85",3
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","140","88",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141","88",3
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","238","140",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","142",3
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","353","190",3
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","359","191",3
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","344","71",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","351","72",3
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","387","102",3
","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","405","106",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","152","112",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","155","114",3
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","142",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","142",3
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
@ -111,121 +118,119 @@ Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de r
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","83","49",3
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","165","89",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","89",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","74","35",3
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count.
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","171","79",3
","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","79",3
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","96","44",3
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","223","67",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","227","67",3
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","159","64",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","162","64",3
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","112","65",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","114","66",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","260","134",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","135",3
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","90",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246","90",3
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","37",3
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","185","67",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","67",3
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","204","106",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","106",3
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","178","119",3
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","186","121",3
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","260","73",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","263","74",3
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","216","86",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","217","86",3
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","327","141",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","334","142",3
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","107","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","167","81",3
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","174","61",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","176","61",3
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","454","194",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","457","194",3
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","420","211",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","211",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","146",3
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","353","225",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","356","225",3
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","281","102",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","103",3
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020))
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","417","107",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","108",3
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","320","104",3
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","125",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","247","125",3
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","257","97",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","258","97",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","84","44",3
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)). 
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","394","204",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","396","205",3
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","106","60",3
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","76","31",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79","31",3
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","249","43",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","253","43",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)).
","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","128","30",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","131","30",3
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","425","199",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","430","200",3
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","197","79",3
","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","200","80",3
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","548","198",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","558","199",3
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","537","247",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","540","247",3
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)).
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1678","581",3
","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1686","582",3
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","508","215",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","510","215",3
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","321","202",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","327","204",3
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","521","234",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","529","238",3
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","220","123",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","224","124",3
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317","185",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","319","185",3
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","310","165",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","312","165",3
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","293","88",3
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","199","115",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","88",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","230","58",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","317","168",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","318","168",3
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","269","107",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","270","107",3
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)).
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1407","204",3
","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1413","206",3
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","285","63",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","286","64",3
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","203","62",3
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)).
@ -234,99 +239,97 @@ NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would co
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","130","54",3
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","547","151",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","548","152",3
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","729","156",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","736","156",3
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)).
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","468","217",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","473","219",3
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","467","93",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","475","93",3
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)).
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","452","67",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","457","67",3
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","210","65",3
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","412","159",3
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)).
","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","342","114",3
","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","345","114",3
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)).
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","680","200",3
","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","686","202",3
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1144","453",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1152","454",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","385","160",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","386","160",3
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","329","153",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","332","153",3
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","711","166",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","716","166",3
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","836","166",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","839","166",3
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","205","78",3
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","323","76",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","324","76",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","630","184",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","634","184",3
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","470","96",3
","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","473","96",3
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","271","55",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","280","56",3
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","369","120",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","372","120",3
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","295","107",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","300","107",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","275","78",3
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","279","79",3
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","844","291",3
","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","852","293",3
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","138",3
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","293","138",3
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","638","142",3
Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","644","142",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","94",3
","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","244","94",3
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)).
This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","253","57",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","255","57",3
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","234","46",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","235","46",3
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1170","173",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d0b3bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbea390b7bfbfb4baa5b4b7bdb5bea4feb3bfbdefa3a5b2bab5b3a4ed81a5b5a3a4b9bfbef5e2e093bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1176","176",3
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1994","823",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b9dad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7caf9ded6d6ddd3ccddded4dcd7cd97dad6d486caccdbd3dcdacd84e8ccdccacdd0d6d79c8b89fad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","2017","828",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","241","110",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8aba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6bb88afa7a7aca2bdacafa5ada6bce6aba7a5f7bbbdaaa2adabbcf599bdadbbbca1a7a6edfaf88ba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","243","110",3
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1065","462",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1072","463",3
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","291","82",3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","292","82",3
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","284","74",3
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","395","218",3
Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bdded1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3cefddad2d2d9d7c8d9dad0d8d3c993ded2d082cec8dfd7d8dec980ecc8d8cec9d4d2d3988f8dfed1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","396","218",3
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","189","88",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","190","88",3
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)).
","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","282","96",3
","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283","96",3
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","427","147",3
","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","428","147",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","266","97",3
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","302","133",3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","303","133",3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1964-what-will-be-the-12-month-percentage-change-in-the-us-consumer-price-index-cpi-for-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ([Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp)). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for "All items" in September 2021 ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm)). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%. [{"name":"Lower than 1.7%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher than 3.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5 5 3
3 Which film will win the 2021 Oscar® for Best Motion Picture of the Year? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1965-which-film-will-win-the-2021-oscar-for-best-motion-picture-of-the-year Good Judgment Open The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). [{"name":"The Father","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Judas and the Black Messiah","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sound of Metal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"The Trial of the Chicago 7","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 1 3
4 Which film will win the 2020 Oscar® for Directing? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1966-which-film-will-win-the-2020-oscar-for-directing Good Judgment Open The 93nd Academy Awards, known as the Oscars®, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 ([Oscars](https://oscar.go.com/)). [{"name":"Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mank (David Fincher)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A tie or other outcome","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1 1 3
5 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 64 46 3
6 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021 Good Judgment Open As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/). [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 82 67 3
7 What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 45 42 3
8 Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021? Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.54,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 46 37 42 3
9 How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021? What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading Good Judgment Open As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. [{"name":"Fewer than 14.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 19.0 million","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 67 48 57 34 3
10 What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km Good Judgment Open Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. [{"name":"Less than $25 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $55 billion","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only launch an ICBM","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 38 104 35 69 3
11 Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021? Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 Good Judgment Open After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 40 44 36 32 3
12 How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 Good Judgment Open On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 120 55 3
13 What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading? How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options). [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 48 86 34 36 3
14 Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. [{"name":"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only launch an ICBM","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 96 227 67 76 3
15 Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021? How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc Good Judgment Open A Reddit-fueled "short squeeze" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice "is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 44 332 32 116 3
16 How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021? How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 Good Judgment Open On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"550,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 113 207 55 66 3
17 How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021? Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. NOTE 15 March 2021: Healthdata.gov recently relaunched its web page, so the link in the question description has been revised with the new link (click "Export" for file download options). The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. [{"name":"Fewer than 15,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 81 127 35 73 3
18 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). [{"name":"Fewer than 100,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"900,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 210 72 74 40 3
19 How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC? Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). [{"name":"Fewer than 70,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 115,000,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 305 459 112 354 3
20 How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021? For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. [{"name":"Fewer than 4,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","probability":0.46,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20,000 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 186 333 62 252 3
21 Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019? Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the "Data for all countries" spreadsheet under the "Excel file" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% ("Share of GDP sheet," cell BU99). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 123 348 71 307 3
22 Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts? In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law Good Judgment Open China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). [{"name":"0","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 70 207 39 179 3
23 Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations? How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 Good Judgment Open Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 453 242 352 180 3
24 For how many weeks will Adam Grant's "Think Again" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021? What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open Author Adam Grant's latest book, "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know," was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print &amp; E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. [{"name":"Fewer than 4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 4 and 8","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 9 and 13","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 14 and 18","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 18","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 329 65 251 24 3
25 Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021? What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 344 148 304 89 3
26 In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law? What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 202 116 177 49 3
27 How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021? Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. [{"name":"Fewer than 8,000,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 14,000,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 238 120 178 55 3
28 What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021? Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin Good Judgment Open Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). [{"name":"Less than $0.50","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $5.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 63 455 24 318 3
29 What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021? Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). [{"name":"Less than 5.4%","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 7.1%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 146 70 88 45 3
30 What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021? Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp Good Judgment Open With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). [{"name":"Less than 1.000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.500","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 109 157 48 76 3
31 Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022? Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa Good Judgment Open There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). [{"name":"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 115 183 53 74 3
32 Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin? Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. [{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 447 87 314 50 3
33 Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022? Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 69 206 45 114 3
34 Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP? Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 151 173 73 134 3
35 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA? Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 180 168 73 119 3
36 Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022? Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 Good Judgment Open On 1 February 2021, the military (aka "Defence Services") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services "shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close "Yes" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 87 151 50 83 3
37 Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022? Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship Good Judgment Open In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 193 131 110 52 3
38 Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022? Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities Good Judgment Open President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 168 145 133 85 3
39 Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022? Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a "space tourist flight" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. [{"name":"Yes, only SpaceX","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Virgin Galactic","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 165 112 116 73 3
40 Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021? Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 150 265 82 109 3
41 Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship? How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. [{"name":"Brooklyn Nets","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Clippers","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Los Angeles Lakers","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Milwaukee Bucks","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another team","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 237 51 140 3
42 Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities? What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 144 139 85 74 3
43 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 108 92 71 55 3
44 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 262 86 108 64 3
45 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). [{"name":"0","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 199 139 85 3
46 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. [{"name":"Less than $200 million","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $1.75 billion","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 139 141 74 88 3
47 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 90 244 55 142 3
48 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#96f5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8e5d6f1f9f9f2fce3f2f1fbf3f8e2b8f5f9fba9e5e3f4fcf3f5e2abc7e3f3e5e2fff9f8b3a4a6d5faf7e4fff0fff5f7e2fff9f8). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 359 61 191 3
49 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 196 351 84 72 3
50 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 140 405 88 106 3
51 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 238 155 140 114 3
52 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c9aaa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7ba89aea6a6ada3bcadaea4aca7bde7aaa6a4f6babcaba3acaabdf498bcacbabda0a6a7ecfbf98aa5a8bba0afa0aaa8bda0a6a7). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 353 249 190 142 3
53 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Before 1 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 344 83 71 49 3
54 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. [{"name":"7 or fewer","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 8 and 14","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 15 and 21","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 22 and 28","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 387 167 102 89 3
55 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 152 74 112 35 3
56 Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 246 174 142 79 3
57 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 83 96 49 44 3
58 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). [{"name":"Fewer than 226 seats","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 226 seats and 299 seats","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"300 seats or more","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 165 227 89 67 3
59 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. [{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 74 162 35 64 3
60 When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. [{"name":"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 18 September 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 171 114 79 66 3
61 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 96 266 44 135 3
62 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. [{"name":"Less than $75 billion","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $150 billion","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 223 246 67 90 3
63 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 159 106 64 37 3
64 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). [{"name":"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 112 186 65 67 3
65 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 260 205 134 106 3
66 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia Good Judgment Open The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nicaragua","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"St. Lucia","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will be a draw","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 243 186 90 121 3
67 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 106 263 37 74 3
68 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 185 217 67 86 3
69 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). [{"name":"Yes, the most valuable in the world","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, but the most valuable in the United States","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 204 334 106 142 3
70 Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7d1e111c0f141b141e1c091412130e3d1a1212191708191a10181309531e1210420e081f17181e09402c08180e09141213584f4d3e111c0f141b141e1c09141213). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. [{"name":"Nicaragua","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"St. Lucia","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will be a draw","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 178 107 119 76 3
71 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). [{"name":"Less than 1.500","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 3.000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 260 167 73 81 3
72 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 216 176 86 61 3
73 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. [{"name":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 327 457 141 194 3
74 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 107 425 76 211 3
75 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 167 275 81 146 3
76 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 174 356 61 225 3
77 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. [{"name":"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 454 282 194 103 3
78 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research Good Judgment Open Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) [{"name":"Yes, only by the FDA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only by the EMA","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 420 425 211 108 3
79 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 275 320 146 104 3
80 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 353 247 225 125 3
81 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 281 258 102 97 3
82 Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 417 84 107 44 3
83 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  [{"name":"Yes, only Michael Kovrig","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only Michael Spavor","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 320 396 104 205 3
84 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.94,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 243 106 125 60 3
85 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Before 1 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","probability":0.56,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 January 2022","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 257 79 97 31 3
86 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 84 253 44 43 3
87 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&amp;P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 394 131 204 30 3
88 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.92,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 106 430 60 200 3
89 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 76 200 31 80 3
90 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). [{"name":"Less than $2.00","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $3.50","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 249 558 43 199 3
91 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. [{"name":"Yes, only for president","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only for parliament","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, for both president and parliament","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 128 540 30 247 3
92 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 425 1686 199 582 3
93 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. [{"name":"A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another candidate","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 197 510 79 215 3
94 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 548 327 198 204 3
95 What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). [{"name":"Less than 5.0%","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.0%","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 537 529 247 238 3
96 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). [{"name":"Zero","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1678 224 581 124 3
97 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. [{"name":"Fewer than 150,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"350,000 or more","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 508 319 215 185 3
98 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 321 312 202 165 3
99 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 521 295 234 88 3
100 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.69,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 220 230 123 58 3
101 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 317 318 185 168 3
102 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 310 270 165 107 3
103 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 293 1413 88 206 3
104 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). [{"name":"Lower","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Higher","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 199 286 115 64 3
105 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 230 203 58 62 3
106 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 317 152 168 43 3
107 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 269 130 107 54 3
108 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. [{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or 8","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"9 or more","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1407 548 204 152 3
109 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 285 736 63 156 3
110 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 203 473 62 219 3
111 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ([Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf), [ScienceMag.org](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html)). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/)). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ([Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/)). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. [{"name":"0","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or more","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.81,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 152 475 43 93 3
112 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 130 457 54 67 3
113 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Before 1 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 June 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 547 210 151 65 3
114 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"England","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 729 345 156 114 3
115 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). [{"name":"Less than 2.00%","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","probability":0.44,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.00%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 468 686 217 202 3
116 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). [{"name":"Less than 1.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1.6 million","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 467 1152 93 454 3
118 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 210 332 65 153 3
119 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 412 716 159 166 3
120 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. [{"name":"England","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.32,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Italy","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Spain","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another country","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.57,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 342 839 114 166 3
121 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Before 19 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 24 May 2021","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 680 205 200 78 3
122 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1144 324 453 76 3
123 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 385 634 160 184 3
124 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 329 473 153 96 3
125 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.74,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 711 280 166 56 3
126 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 October 2021","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 836 372 166 120 3
127 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 205 300 78 107 3
128 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 323 279 76 79 3
129 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 630 852 184 293 3
130 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#99faf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7ead9fef6f6fdf3ecfdfef4fcf7edb7faf6f4a6eaecfbf3fcfaeda4c8ecfceaedf0f6f7bcaba9daf5f8ebf0fff0faf8edf0f6f7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"2 or fewer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or more","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 470 293 96 138 3
131 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst &amp; Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#5a39363b28333c33393b2e333534291a3d35353e302f3e3d373f342e7439353765292f38303f392e670b2f3f292e3335347f686a19363b28333c33393b2e333534). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Before 1 October 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 April 2021","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 271 644 55 142 3
132 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. [{"name":"Fewer than 25,000","probability":0.68,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 250,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 369 244 120 94 3
133 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. [{"name":"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 295 255 107 57 3
134 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." [{"name":"0","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1 or 2","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or 4","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"5 or 6","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"7 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 275 235 78 46 3
135 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d0b3bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbea390b7bfbfb4baa5b4b7bdb5bea4feb3bfbdefa3a5b2bab5b3a4ed81a5b5a3a4b9bfbef5e2e093bcb1a2b9b6b9b3b1a4b9bfbe). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Before 1 January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not before 1 July 2021","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 844 1176 291 176 3
136 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b9dad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7caf9ded6d6ddd3ccddded4dcd7cd97dad6d486caccdbd3dcdacd84e8ccdccacdd0d6d79c8b89fad5d8cbd0dfd0dad8cdd0d6d7). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 291 2017 138 828 3
137 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#82e1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedecf1c2e5edede6e8f7e6e5efe7ecf6ace1edefbdf1f7e0e8e7e1f6bfd3f7e7f1f6ebedeca7b0b2c1eee3f0ebe4ebe1e3f6ebedec). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c8aba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6bb88afa7a7aca2bdacafa5ada6bce6aba7a5f7bbbdaaa2adabbcf599bdadbbbca1a7a6edfaf88ba4a9baa1aea1aba9bca1a7a6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.85,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 638 243 142 110 3
138 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#b5d6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadbc6f5d2dadad1dfc0d1d2d8d0dbc19bd6dad88ac6c0d7dfd0d6c188e4c0d0c6c1dcdadb908785f6d9d4c7dcd3dcd6d4c1dcdadb). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Yes, a firm","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, a paid backup driver","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 241 1072 94 463 3
139 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. [{"name":"Fewer than 2.2 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.0 million","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 253 292 57 82 3
140 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". [{"name":"Fewer than 5,300","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 6,500","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 234 284 46 74 3
141 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bdded1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3cefddad2d2d9d7c8d9dad0d8d3c993ded2d082cec8dfd7d8dec980ecc8d8cec9d4d2d3988f8dfed1dccfd4dbd4dedcc9d4d2d3). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). [{"name":"Fewer than 2.5 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 20.0 million","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"0","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1170 396 173 218 3
142 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#791a15180b101f101a180d1016170a391e16161d130c1d1e141c170d571a1614460a0c1b131c1a0d44280c1c0a0d1016175c4b493a15180b101f101a180d101617). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Yes, the Olympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, the Paralympics only","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yes, both","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.91,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1994 190 823 88 3
143 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than $80 per kWh","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","probability":0.43,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than $140 per kWh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 241 283 110 96 3
144 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#294a45485b404f404a485d4046475a694e46464d435c4d4e444c475d074a4644165a5c4b434c4a5d14785c4c5a5d4046470c1b196a45485b404f404a485d404647). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.5%","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 8.5%","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1065 428 462 147 3
145 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. [{"name":"Fewer than 700,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 2,200,000","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 291 266 82 97 3
146 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system), [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a)). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1418](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. [{"name":"Less than 25,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 40,000","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 284 303 74 133 3
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data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.22115384615384617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04807692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1372549019607843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5490196078431372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.1568627450980392,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.06862745098039215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.36633663366336633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.28712871287128716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.2621359223300971,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.35922330097087385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.2815533980582524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207920792079207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1176470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.11428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.2277227722772277,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.07547169811320754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.08571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.30476190476190473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.1238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.33333333333333326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2830188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.339622641509434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.7722772277227723,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.20792079207920794,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6796116504854369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.05825242718446602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.26595744680851063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.3191489361702128,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.11702127659574468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.09574468085106382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.2021276595744681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8118811881188118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3

1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.923076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics. [{"name":"Yes, more than 121","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No, not more than 121","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.02912621359223301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.03883495145631068,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.14563106796116507,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5436893203883496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.04854368932038835,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.14563106796116507,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pierre de Villiers","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.1372549019607843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5490196078431372,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Valérie Pécresse","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Piolle","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another woman","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another man","probability":0.1568627450980392,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen. [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.6153846153846154,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.11538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.22115384615384617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.04807692307692307,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Macron and Le Pen","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Macron, but not Le Pen","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Le Pen, but not Macron","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neither of them","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9705882352941175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.02941176470588235,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind [{"name":"In June, 2021 (as planned)","probability":0.9117647058823529,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Later in 2021","probability":0.06862745098039215,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not in 2021","probability":0.0196078431372549,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H [{"name":"France","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Japan","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Same medals count","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.0297029702970297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.26732673267326734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.36633663366336633,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.28712871287128716,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nov-Dec, 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"January 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"February 2021","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"March 2021","probability":0.01941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"April 2021","probability":0.07766990291262137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"May 2021","probability":0.2621359223300971,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"June 2021","probability":0.35922330097087385,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe after June 2021","probability":0.2815533980582524,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind To be considered "deadly", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.07920792079207921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9207920792079207,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD". [{"name":"Saad-Eddine El Othmani","probability":0.15533980582524273,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdelilah Benkirane","probability":0.07766990291262137,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else from PJD","probability":0.01941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else not from PJD","probability":0.7475728155339806,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats. [{"name":"> 148 (more than currently)","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"128 (absolute majority) to 148 ","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"< 128","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.030303030303030304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9696969696969697,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time). [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1176470588235294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8823529411764706,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Denis Sassou Nguesso","probability":0.9428571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mathias Dzon","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. [{"name":"Idriss Déby Itno","probability":0.951923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Saleh Kezabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Succès Masra","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted... [{"name":"Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed","probability":0.9313725490196079,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abshir Aden Ferro","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sharif Sheikh Ahmed","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.00980392156862745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No election in 2021","probability":0.0392156862745098,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart. [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.2857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.33333333333333326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.11428571428571427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.2476190476190476,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Q1, 2021 (or before)","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q2, 2021","probability":0.2830188679245283,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q3, 2021","probability":0.339622641509434,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q4, 2021","probability":0.12264150943396226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.2358490566037736,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021. [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Benjamin Netanyahu","probability":0.7722772277227723,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another Likud politician","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another politician not from Likud","probability":0.20792079207920794,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a> [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.2277227722772277,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.26732673267326734,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.504950495049505,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Worse than the 2012 record","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Not worse than 2020","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September. [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.1981132075471698,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.660377358490566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.03773584905660377,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.07547169811320754,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Marcus Söder (CSU)","probability":0.1941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet (CDU)","probability":0.6796116504854369,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Another member of CDU/CSU","probability":0.02912621359223301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of SPD","probability":0.02912621359223301,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A member of the Green party","probability":0.05825242718446602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Someone else","probability":0.00970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles. [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.08571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.30476190476190473,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.1238095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.15238095238095237,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.33333333333333326,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"in Q1, 2021","probability":0.26595744680851063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q2, 2021","probability":0.3191489361702128,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q3, 2021","probability":0.11702127659574468,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"in Q4, 2021","probability":0.09574468085106382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Perhaps later","probability":0.2021276595744681,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"USA","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"USA","probability":0.8118811881188118,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.1485148514851485,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind [{"name":"In 2020","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Q1, 2021","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maybe later","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 32,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 28,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily. [{"name":"≥ 6,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"≤ 5,000","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3

106
data/hypermind-questions.json
View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.923076923076923,
"probability": 0.96,
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}
],
@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
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},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.03883495145631068,
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},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
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},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
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"probability": 0.1372549019607843,
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},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5436893203883496,
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{
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"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
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},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
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},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
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},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.04854368932038835,
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
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{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.14563106796116507,
"probability": 0.1568627450980392,
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],
@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.6153846153846154,
"probability": 0.63,
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},
{
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"probability": 0.15,
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{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
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"probability": 0.19,
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{
"name": "Neither of them",
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}
],
@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"probability": 0.01941747572815534,
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},
{
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"probability": 0.13,
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},
{
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"probability": 0.07766990291262137,
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},
{
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{
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{
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],
@ -387,12 +387,12 @@
"options": [
{
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},
{
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"probability": 0.8823529411764706,
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}
],
@ -513,27 +513,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
@ -547,17 +547,17 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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}
],
@ -571,17 +571,17 @@
"options": [
{
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"probability": 0.23,
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
@ -595,32 +595,32 @@
"options": [
{
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"probability": 0.1981132075471698,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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}
],
@ -634,27 +634,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.1238095238095238,
"probability": 0.11702127659574468,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.15238095238095237,
"probability": 0.09574468085106382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.33333333333333326,
"probability": 0.2021276595744681,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -673,12 +673,12 @@
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.83,
"probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -697,22 +697,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.8,
"probability": 0.8118811881188118,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.02,
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.02,
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.16,
"probability": 0.1485148514851485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

10
data/ladbrokes-questions.csv
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42
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
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@ -1101,12 +1101,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen (Cons)",
"probability": 0.75,
"probability": 0.7936507936507936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)",
"probability": 0.25,
"probability": 0.2063492063492063,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1780,33 +1780,33 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool By-election: To Win",
"title": "Hartlepool By-election: Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.5261973798876447,
"probability": 0.5007033585370143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4334864129550597,
"probability": 0.45063302268331284,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.0045289625234110715,
"probability": 0.004483910673465799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.02677416080016545,
"probability": 0.026507824863724286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
"probability": 0.009013083833719062,
"name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
"probability": 0.017671883242482856,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2062,22 +2062,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.08506316571711667,
"probability": 0.11503967380380371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.8506316571711666,
"probability": 0.8217119557414551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.009264305177111716,
"probability": 0.009112053370598314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.055040871934604906,
"probability": 0.054136317084142925,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2441,12 +2441,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.6076923076923076,
"probability": 0.5890052356020942,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.39230769230769225,
"probability": 0.4109947643979057,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2492,32 +2492,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 40%",
"probability": 0.04193230874539787,
"probability": 0.04190017710836724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-45%",
"probability": 0.12579692623619362,
"probability": 0.14665061987928535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45-50%",
"probability": 0.35223139346134213,
"probability": 0.35196148771028485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50-55%",
"probability": 0.33609865788296,
"probability": 0.335841114227371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55-60%",
"probability": 0.11007231045666942,
"probability": 0.09776707991952356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 60%",
"probability": 0.03386840321743675,
"probability": 0.025879521155168003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

2213
data/metaculus-questions.csv
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data/metaculus-questions.json
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data/metaforecasts.json
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90
data/polymarket-questions.csv
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@ -1,48 +1,12 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04370182432456576988928154888546837"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9562981756754342301107184511145316"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","141",,3
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1934946039826556687210229849332036"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8065053960173443312789770150667964"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","109",,4
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.93969077074312079300852328223358"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.06030922925687920699147671776642001"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1245",,3
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",,"This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,,
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2786055887630196690122933578202847"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7213944112369803309877066421797153"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","19",,4
"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.6706007725723407971118622145171625"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.3293992274276592028881377854828375"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","94",,4
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3624685664431505215185183055911118"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6375314335568494784814816944088882"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","847",,4
"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",,"This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[]",,,
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7567612226678442802779601760633623"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2432387773321557197220398239366377"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","111",,4
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5334554631862323402820807933319699"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4665445368137676597179192066680301"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","195",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.009883483868312364959358354119723674"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9901165161316876350406416458802763"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3847",,3
"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021","PolyMarket"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.719850923592054496298680049174087"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.280149076407945503701319950825913"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","54",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05012065833654499591695567341102339"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9498793416634550040830443265889766"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","490",,3
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5770169935621389802193058406202036"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4229830064378610197806941593797964"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","511",,4
"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7276668169911683398097118967867872"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2723331830088316601902881032132128"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","209",,4
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1249616481551395062886539344923381"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8750383518448604937113460655076619"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","47",,4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08259787410691690061287893351053922"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9174021258930830993871210664894608"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","298",,3
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3500003620826511607920533084438381"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.51451285463340818053806694975702"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1354867832839406586698797417991419"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","143",,4
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07912778821948962977238564057112765"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9208722117805103702276143594288724"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","63",,3
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.001051940649472768178218571021399585"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9989480593505272318217814289786004"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1732",,2
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6181001610258899706713743885934304"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3818998389741100293286256114065696"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","4984",,4
Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5343306424605916138160044415594014"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4656693575394083861839955584405986"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","79",,4
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9382535450938875672215375026234161"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.06174645490611243277846249737658387"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","1294",,3
"How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET.
At 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
@ -51,8 +15,42 @@ Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in questi
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Less than 80"",""probability"":""0.3405166665208588557030405261550704"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81-95"",""probability"":""0.2069257779675633066754996274438289"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""96-110"",""probability"":""0.1634832414861564553275933427922908"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""111-125"",""probability"":""0.1235110987017487763250162114444212"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""126-140"",""probability"":""0.08248548304886138067830916935318297"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 140"",""probability"":""0.08307773227481122529054112281120574"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","81",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",,"This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[]",,,
"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Less than 80"",""probability"":""0.1896658123630845294321136468815691"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80-95"",""probability"":""0.2548856753523841491528462046351393"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""96-110"",""probability"":""0.2141893378681457564905702188353323"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""111-125"",""probability"":""0.1688476774839751329216091564165022"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""126-140"",""probability"":""0.1072364692081966116976011485417401"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 140"",""probability"":""0.06517502772421382030525962468971683"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","242",,4
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8983913045560304941792165871351091"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1016086954439695058207834128648909"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","747",,4
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4854328413848816857344594320279314"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5145671586151183142655405679720686"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","36",,4
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6403626165067824122242711565972061"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3596373834932175877757288434027939"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","620",,4
"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3802527796287363019928392872431462"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6197472203712636980071607127568538"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","45",,4
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","[]",,,
"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3469431103899506785582487004788511"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6530568896100493214417512995211489"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","888",,4
"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5948737239746348935873161930138786"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4051262760253651064126838069861214"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","209",,4
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.009968019036851311783921716162791545"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9900319809631486882160782838372085"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","3911",,3
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05391496233657492726637475374322704"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.946085037663425072733625246256773"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","522",,3
"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7710558450747659226717023088638562"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2289441549252340773282976911361438"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","246",,4
"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3479083686657121697689646675549365"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.5328686474336938586465787000917595"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.119222983900593971584456632353304"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","161",,4
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4140774326095636232496922364065135"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5859225673904363767503077635934865"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","7",,4
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1275887461538773541920404456362465"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8724112538461226458079595543637535"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","49",,4
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08837522317770079423093589840728967"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9116247768222992057690641015927103"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","303",,3
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4942869104047756267905177059606515"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5057130895952243732094822940393485"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","5247",,4
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",,"This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[]",,,
"Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4011971233606467821364778801433973"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5988028766393532178635221198566027"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","283",,4
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.06317628455642963361204681856740391"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9368237154435703663879531814325961"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","78",,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021? Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30 PolyMarket This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.04370182432456576988928154888546837","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9562981756754342301107184511145316","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.2786055887630196690122933578202847","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.7213944112369803309877066421797153","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 141 19 3 4
3 Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20? Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20 https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1934946039826556687210229849332036","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8065053960173443312789770150667964","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Bezos","probability":"0.7567612226678442802779601760633623","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Musk","probability":"0.2432387773321557197220398239366377","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 109 111 4
Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.93969077074312079300852328223358","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.06030922925687920699147671776642001","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1245 3
Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). []
Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Bezos","probability":"0.6706007725723407971118622145171625","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Musk","probability":"0.3293992274276592028881377854828375","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 94 4
4 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. [] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5343306424605916138160044415594014","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4656693575394083861839955584405986","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 79 4
5 Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021? Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/ [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3624685664431505215185183055911118","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6375314335568494784814816944088882","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.9382535450938875672215375026234161","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.06174645490611243277846249737658387","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 847 1294 4 3
6 Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021? How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. At 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [] [{"name":"Less than 80","probability":"0.1896658123630845294321136468815691","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80-95","probability":"0.2548856753523841491528462046351393","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"96-110","probability":"0.2141893378681457564905702188353323","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"111-125","probability":"0.1688476774839751329216091564165022","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"126-140","probability":"0.1072364692081966116976011485417401","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 140","probability":"0.06517502772421382030525962468971683","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 242 4
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5334554631862323402820807933319699","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4665445368137676597179192066680301","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 195 4
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.009883483868312364959358354119723674","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9901165161316876350406416458802763","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3847 3
Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.719850923592054496298680049174087","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.280149076407945503701319950825913","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 54 4
7 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021? Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.05012065833654499591695567341102339","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9498793416634550040830443265889766","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.8983913045560304941792165871351091","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.1016086954439695058207834128648909","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 490 747 3 4
8 Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5770169935621389802193058406202036","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4229830064378610197806941593797964","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6403626165067824122242711565972061","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3596373834932175877757288434027939","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 511 620 4
9 Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021? Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to "Yes". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to "No". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7276668169911683398097118967867872","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2723331830088316601902881032132128","type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3802527796287363019928392872431462","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6197472203712636980071607127568538","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 209 45 4
Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1249616481551395062886539344923381","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8750383518448604937113460655076619","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 47 4
Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed PolyMarket This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.08259787410691690061287893351053922","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9174021258930830993871210664894608","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 298 3
Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.3500003620826511607920533084438381","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.51451285463340818053806694975702","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.1354867832839406586698797417991419","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 143 4
Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.07912778821948962977238564057112765","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9208722117805103702276143594288724","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 63 3
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.001051940649472768178218571021399585","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9989480593505272318217814289786004","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 1732 2
Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.6181001610258899706713743885934304","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.3818998389741100293286256114065696","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 4984 4
How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. At 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the "Baseline") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label "TWEETS" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. Neither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable. Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Less than 80","probability":"0.3405166665208588557030405261550704","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81-95","probability":"0.2069257779675633066754996274438289","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"96-110","probability":"0.1634832414861564553275933427922908","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"111-125","probability":"0.1235110987017487763250162114444212","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"126-140","probability":"0.08248548304886138067830916935318297","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"More than 140","probability":"0.08307773227481122529054112281120574","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 81 4
Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. []
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). Clarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4854328413848816857344594320279314","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5145671586151183142655405679720686","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 36 4
10 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1 This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and "No" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/. []
11 Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.3469431103899506785582487004788511","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.6530568896100493214417512995211489","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 888 4
12 Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and "No" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.5948737239746348935873161930138786","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.4051262760253651064126838069861214","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 209 4
15 Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.7710558450747659226717023088638562","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.2289441549252340773282976911361438","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 246 4
16 Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Texas","probability":"0.3479083686657121697689646675549365","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florida","probability":"0.5328686474336938586465787000917595","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"California","probability":"0.119222983900593971584456632353304","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 161 4
17 Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3? https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3 PolyMarket This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4140774326095636232496922364065135","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5859225673904363767503077635934865","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 7 4
18 Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.1275887461538773541920404456362465","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.8724112538461226458079595543637535","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 49 4
19 Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed PolyMarket This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.08837522317770079423093589840728967","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9116247768222992057690641015927103","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 303 3
20 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4942869104047756267905177059606515","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5057130895952243732094822940393485","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 5247 4
21 Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1 This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). []
22 Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021 PolyMarket This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.4011971233606467821364778801433973","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.5988028766393532178635221198566027","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 283 4
23 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1 PolyMarket This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to "Yes" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise. [{"name":"Yes","probability":"0.06317628455642963361204681856740391","type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":"0.9368237154435703663879531814325961","type":"PROBABILITY"}] 78 3
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data/polymarket-questions.json
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@ -1,42 +1,62 @@
[
{
"title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",
"title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-5-5-or-higher-on-march-30",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n",
"description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04370182432456576988928154888546837",
"probability": "0.2786055887630196690122933578202847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9562981756754342301107184511145316",
"probability": "0.7213944112369803309877066421797153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "141",
"stars": 3
"numforecasts": "19",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20",
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.7567612226678442802779601760633623",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.2432387773321557197220398239366377",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "111",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1934946039826556687210229849332036",
"probability": "0.5343306424605916138160044415594014",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8065053960173443312789770150667964",
"probability": "0.4656693575394083861839955584405986",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "109",
"numforecasts": "79",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -47,47 +67,116 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.93969077074312079300852328223358",
"probability": "0.9382535450938875672215375026234161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.06030922925687920699147671776642001",
"probability": "0.06174645490611243277846249737658387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1245",
"numforecasts": "1294",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 80",
"probability": "0.1896658123630845294321136468815691",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "80-95",
"probability": "0.2548856753523841491528462046351393",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "96-110",
"probability": "0.2141893378681457564905702188353323",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "111-125",
"probability": "0.1688476774839751329216091564165022",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "126-140",
"probability": "0.1072364692081966116976011485417401",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 140",
"probability": "0.06517502772421382030525962468971683",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "242",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.6706007725723407971118622145171625",
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8983913045560304941792165871351091",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.3293992274276592028881377854828375",
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1016086954439695058207834128648909",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "94",
"numforecasts": "747",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6403626165067824122242711565972061",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3596373834932175877757288434027939",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "620",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3802527796287363019928392872431462",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6197472203712636980071607127568538",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "45",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -109,29 +198,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3624685664431505215185183055911118",
"probability": "0.3469431103899506785582487004788511",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6375314335568494784814816944088882",
"probability": "0.6530568896100493214417512995211489",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "847",
"numforecasts": "888",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021",
"address": "0x0d914cee6A5BaA3596c7350A045C5F5600A5FA36",
"description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021",
@ -140,16 +218,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5334554631862323402820807933319699",
"probability": "0.5948737239746348935873161930138786",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4665445368137676597179192066680301",
"probability": "0.4051262760253651064126838069861214",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "195",
"numforecasts": "209",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -160,38 +238,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.009883483868312364959358354119723674",
"probability": "0.009968019036851311783921716162791545",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9901165161316876350406416458802763",
"probability": "0.9900319809631486882160782838372085",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "3847",
"numforecasts": "3911",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.719850923592054496298680049174087",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.280149076407945503701319950825913",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "54",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021",
@ -200,38 +258,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.05012065833654499591695567341102339",
"probability": "0.05391496233657492726637475374322704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9498793416634550040830443265889766",
"probability": "0.946085037663425072733625246256773",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "490",
"numforecasts": "522",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5770169935621389802193058406202036",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4229830064378610197806941593797964",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "511",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
@ -240,16 +278,61 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7276668169911683398097118967867872",
"probability": "0.7710558450747659226717023088638562",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2723331830088316601902881032132128",
"probability": "0.2289441549252340773282976911361438",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "209",
"numforecasts": "246",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.3479083686657121697689646675549365",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.5328686474336938586465787000917595",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.119222983900593971584456632353304",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "161",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4140774326095636232496922364065135",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5859225673904363767503077635934865",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "7",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -260,16 +343,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1249616481551395062886539344923381",
"probability": "0.1275887461538773541920404456362465",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8750383518448604937113460655076619",
"probability": "0.8724112538461226458079595543637535",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "47",
"numforecasts": "49",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -280,83 +363,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08259787410691690061287893351053922",
"probability": "0.08837522317770079423093589840728967",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9174021258930830993871210664894608",
"probability": "0.9116247768222992057690641015927103",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "298",
"numforecasts": "303",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Texas",
"probability": "0.3500003620826511607920533084438381",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florida",
"probability": "0.51451285463340818053806694975702",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "California",
"probability": "0.1354867832839406586698797417991419",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "143",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07912778821948962977238564057112765",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9208722117805103702276143594288724",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.001051940649472768178218571021399585",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9989480593505272318217814289786004",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1732",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
@ -365,63 +383,23 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.6181001610258899706713743885934304",
"probability": "0.4942869104047756267905177059606515",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.3818998389741100293286256114065696",
"probability": "0.5057130895952243732094822940393485",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4984",
"numforecasts": "5247",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @mtgreenee account on March 22, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-mtgreenee-account-on-march-22-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, March 22, 2021 at 3:00 pm ET. \n\nAt 3:00pm ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @mtgreenee, shall exceed 11,360 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @mtgreenee, then clicking the verified account labeled “@mtgreenee” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @mtgreenee just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Marjorie Taylor Greene, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 80",
"probability": "0.3405166665208588557030405261550704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81-95",
"probability": "0.2069257779675633066754996274438289",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "96-110",
"probability": "0.1634832414861564553275933427922908",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "111-125",
"probability": "0.1235110987017487763250162114444212",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "126-140",
"probability": "0.08248548304886138067830916935318297",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 140",
"probability": "0.08307773227481122529054112281120574",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "81",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
@ -429,23 +407,43 @@
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-1-2021",
"title": "Will daily atmospheric CO2 be above 418 ppm on March 22, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-daily-atmospheric-co-2-be-above-418-ppm-on-march-22-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 1, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve according to the green 'approve' percentage displayed on FiveThirtyEight. ",
"description": "This is a market on whether atmospheric CO2 will be above 418.00 parts per million (ppm) for the date of March 22, 2021 as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa observatory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the daily average atmospheric CO2 is greater than 418.00 ppm for March 22, and “No” otherwise. This market will resolve when data is first available for the date of March 22, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4854328413848816857344594320279314",
"probability": "0.4011971233606467821364778801433973",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5145671586151183142655405679720686",
"probability": "0.5988028766393532178635221198566027",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "36",
"numforecasts": "283",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06317628455642963361204681856740391",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9368237154435703663879531814325961",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "78",
"stars": 3
}
]

223
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -2,47 +2,47 @@
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6699029126213591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3300970873786408,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6435643564356436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3564356435643564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5445544554455446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.45544554455445546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5392156862745099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.46078431372549017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4215686274509804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.3177570093457944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.616822429906542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstand
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -67,11 +67,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.47826086956521735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.23478260869565215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06956521739130433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.0608695652173913,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.043478260869565216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.026086956521739126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.017391304347826084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008695652173913042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.21666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.05833333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paperboy Prince"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Fernando Mateo"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -84,7 +84,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -93,36 +93,23 @@ End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.39215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6138613861386139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38613861386138615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date.
Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)
Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
","[{""name"":""Ertharin Cousin"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Schrayer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frederick Barton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Konyndyk"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barsa"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ami Bera"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Samantha Power"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gayle Smith"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -130,12 +117,12 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Terry McAuliffe"",""probability"":0.8640776699029126,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer Carroll Foy"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jennifer McClellan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Fairfax"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -145,39 +132,39 @@ End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.12264150943396226,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.36792452830188677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.3018867924528302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018018018018018018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.31531531531531526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.29729729729729726,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.48623853211009166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.2568807339449541,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.481132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.23584905660377353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.05660377358490564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.047169811320754707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.037735849056603765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.02830188679245282,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009433962264150941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5185185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21296296296296297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.010000000000000009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23364485981308405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.15887850467289716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.10280373831775698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09345794392523363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.028037383177570086,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.2427184466019417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.15533980582524268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09708737864077668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.058252427184466,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03883495145631067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.029126213592233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.019417475728155335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.22429906542056072,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.4818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.22727272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.0818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.07272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
@ -193,11 +180,11 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -209,11 +196,11 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2818181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.21818181818181814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.027272727272727268,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.36538461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2788461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.2019230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@ -241,13 +228,13 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5087719298245613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5641025641025641,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.32478632478632474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008547008547008546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8773584905660378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -263,24 +250,24 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)
Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5089285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.25892857142857145,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.10714285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.04464285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5689655172413792,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.22413793103448273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16981132075471697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.1981132075471698,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.16379310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.15517241379310343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07758620689655171,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.034482758620689655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.008620689655172414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
@ -295,22 +282,22 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET)
NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE.
Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions.
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.05555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.861111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.898148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney').
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.33944954128440363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3211009174311926,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.16513761467889906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.045871559633027525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.347457627118644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.31355932203389825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.13559322033898302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.10169491525423727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.0423728813559322,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.033898305084745756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008474576271186439,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
@ -325,17 +312,17 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed.
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.14563106796116504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.44660194174757284,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.30097087378640774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.07547169811320754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.6132075471698113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.22641509433962262,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.18518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.1574074074074074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Juan Arteaga"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.10185185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.046296296296296294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.027777777777777776,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gigi Sohn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edward Smith"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8316831683168316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.8349514563106796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
@ -349,23 +336,23 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.14953271028037382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07476635514018691,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.037383177570093455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.39999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.5779816513761468,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.39449541284403666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6732673267326733,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.673076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.10576923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.0970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.11650485436893203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.1941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.23300970873786406,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.1650485436893204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.19801980198019803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.1782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Guy Reschenthaler"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ryan Costello"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Everett Stern"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlie Dent"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -373,7 +360,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -383,7 +370,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.15238095238095234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.05714285714285713,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009523809523809521,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5247524752475247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.1881188118811881,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.05940594059405939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.04950495049504949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -393,7 +380,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts.
Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.
@ -404,79 +391,56 @@ Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released.
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.24761904761904763,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.2571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.12380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.09523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.047619047619047616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.
Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.21782178217821782,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.1485148514851485,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.
PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5555555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12962962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.09259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.6138613861386137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.1386138613861386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0693069306930693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.0396039603960396,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.029702970297029695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.0198019801980198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.0099009900990099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.008771929824561405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.026315789473684213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.07017543859649124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.14035087719298248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.2017543859649123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.2017543859649123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.1842105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11403508771929825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.04385964912280702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.
Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6634615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6936936936936936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.16216216216216214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.027027027027027025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009009009009009009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Grant Houston"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.
Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election.
Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.
@ -491,46 +455,46 @@ Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:
* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and
* ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.798076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7735849056603774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09433962264150945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.07547169811320756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.05660377358490567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.4230769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.19230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag).
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9428571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.9339622641509433,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm).
Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio .
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -538,8 +502,45 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.9108910891089109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election.
The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat.
Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., ""delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party.
Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market.
Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President.
Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""R House, D Senate"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dem. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.21600000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rep. House & Senate"",""probability"":0.184,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House, R Senate"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1","PredictIt","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Jeff Jackson"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Erica Smith"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Lee Watkins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heath Shuler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election.
Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be ""Independent.""
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act.
Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""216 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""233 or more"" shall resolve as Yes.
Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market.
Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""216 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""217 or 218"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""219 or 220"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""221 or 222"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""223 or 224"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""225 or 226"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""227 or 228"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""229 or 230"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""231 or 232"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""233 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
"How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15","PredictIt","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Young be confirmed to position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""56 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""81 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","[{""name"":""56 or fewer"",""probability"":0.24324324324324323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57 to 59"",""probability"":0.11711711711711711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 to 62"",""probability"":0.14414414414414414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 to 65"",""probability"":0.1081081081081081,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 68"",""probability"":0.09909909909909909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 to 71"",""probability"":0.07207207207207207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""72 to 74"",""probability"":0.05405405405405405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 to 77"",""probability"":0.036036036036036036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 80"",""probability"":0.04504504504504504,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""81 or more"",""probability"":0.08108108108108107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,3
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6699029126213591,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3300970873786408,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6435643564356436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3564356435643564,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
3 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5238095238095238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4380952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5192307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4423076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Libertarian","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
4 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5445544554455446,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.45544554455445546,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.5392156862745099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.46078431372549017,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
5 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.58,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5784313725490196,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4215686274509804,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
6 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.3018867924528302,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.6320754716981132,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"22 or fewer","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26","probability":0.3177570093457944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"27","probability":0.616822429906542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"29","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or more","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
7 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
8 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.25,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.75,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.76,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
9 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
10 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
11 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
12 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8910891089108911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
13 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.8811881188118812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
14 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.47826086956521735,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.23478260869565215,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.06956521739130433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.0608695652173913,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.043478260869565216,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.026086956521739126,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.017391304347826084,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paperboy Prince","probability":0.008695652173913042,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.4666666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.21666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.06666666666666665,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.05833333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.04999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0.024999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Curtis Sliwa","probability":0.024999999999999994,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0.016666666666666663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.016666666666666663,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carlos Menchaca","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Loree Sutton","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Max Rose","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zach Iscol","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Catsimatidis","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paperboy Prince","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Fernando Mateo","probability":0.008333333333333331,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
15 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
16 Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
17 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.42,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5800000000000001,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
18 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
19 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.83,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
20 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6078431372549019,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.39215686274509803,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.6138613861386139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.38613861386138615,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
21 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
22 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.14,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.86,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.87,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
23 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
24 Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/08/2021 4:24 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: In order to serve in a post subsequent to Senate confirmation, as described in the Rules for this market, the individual must have been sworn in to that post by the End Date. Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ertharin Cousin","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Schrayer","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frederick Barton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Konyndyk","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barsa","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ami Bera","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Samantha Power","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gayle Smith","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
25 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
26 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.8640776699029126,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer Carroll Foy","probability":0.0970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer McClellan","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Fairfax","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
27 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Terry McAuliffe","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer Carroll Foy","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jennifer McClellan","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Justin Fairfax","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
28 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.71,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.29000000000000004,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.018018018018018018,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.027027027027027025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.14414414414414414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.31531531531531526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.29729729729729726,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.14414414414414414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.027027027027027025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.009009009009009009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
29 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"23 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"24 or 25","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"26 or 27","probability":0.12264150943396226,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"28 or 29","probability":0.36792452830188677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"30 or 31","probability":0.3018867924528302,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"32 or 33","probability":0.1320754716981132,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.028301886792452827,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.09999999999999998,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
30 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.88,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.481132075471698,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.23584905660377353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.05660377358490564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.047169811320754707,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.037735849056603765,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.02830188679245282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.02830188679245282,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.009433962264150941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
31 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.48623853211009166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.2568807339449541,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0.04587155963302751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angela Merkel","probability":0.04587155963302751,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.027522935779816505,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Christian Lindner","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katja Kipping","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexander Gauland","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernd Riexinger","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.009174311926605502,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.5185185185185185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.21296296296296297,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.1574074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.08333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
32 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Kirk Cox","probability":0.5046728971962617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Snyder","probability":0.21495327102803738,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Glenn Youngkin","probability":0.16822429906542055,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amanda Chase","probability":0.08411214953271028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neil Chatterjee","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmett Hanger","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill Stanley","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
33 Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.010000000000000009,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.2427184466019417,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.15533980582524268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.09708737864077668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.09708737864077668,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.058252427184466,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.058252427184466,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03883495145631067,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.03883495145631067,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.03883495145631067,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.029126213592233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.029126213592233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.029126213592233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.029126213592233,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.019417475728155335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.019417475728155335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.019417475728155335,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
34 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.23364485981308405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.15887850467289716,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.10280373831775698,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kristi Noem","probability":0.09345794392523363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.05607476635514017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.05607476635514017,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.03738317757009345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mitt Romney","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.028037383177570086,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.018691588785046724,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0.018691588785046724,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
35 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.34,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"33 or fewer","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or 41","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42 or 43","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
36 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"33 or fewer","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"34 or 35","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"36 or 37","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"38 or 39","probability":0.3,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40 or 41","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42 or 43","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.4818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.22727272727272727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.09999999999999999,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.0818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.07272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
37 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Michelle Wu","probability":0.5046728971962617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kim Janey","probability":0.22429906542056072,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Barros","probability":0.09345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Campbell","probability":0.07476635514018691,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Santiago","probability":0.07476635514018691,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Essaibi-George","probability":0.018691588785046728,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marty Walsh","probability":0.009345794392523364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
38 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
39 Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.99,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
40 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
41 Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.97,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
42 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.82,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.18000000000000005,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
43 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.95,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.21,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
44 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.36538461538461536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.2788461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.2019230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
45 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Jane Timken","probability":0.3272727272727272,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"J. D. Vance","probability":0.2818181818181818,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Mandel","probability":0.21818181818181814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Stivers","probability":0.054545454545454536,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Jordan","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Turner","probability":0.027272727272727268,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rob Portman","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Husted","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mary Taylor","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Renacci","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Frank LaRose","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brad Wenstrup","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Warren Davidson","probability":0.00909090909090909,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
46 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.96,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
47 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
48 Will the House censure or reprimand Marjorie Taylor Greene before April 1? Will Liz Cheney win the 2022 House GOP nomination in WY-AL? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7099/Will-the-House-censure-or-reprimand-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-before-April-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7103/Will-Liz-Cheney-win-the-2022-House-GOP-nomination-in-WY-AL PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. House of Representatives votes to censure or reprimand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) before the End Date listed below. A vote shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Representative has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from Wyoming's At-Large district. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.98,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.47,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
58 How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31? Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Becerra be confirmed to position of Secretary of Health and Human Services in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "82 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.05555555555555555,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 53","probability":0.861111111111111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"54 to 57","probability":0.018518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"58 to 61","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 65","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 69","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 77","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 to 81","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"82 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Tali Weinstein","probability":0.347457627118644,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alvin Bragg","probability":0.31355932203389825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tahanie Aboushi","probability":0.13559322033898302,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eliza Orlins","probability":0.10169491525423727,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Quart","probability":0.0423728813559322,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lucy Lang","probability":0.033898305084745756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyrus Vance","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Florence","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Crotty","probability":0.008474576271186439,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
59 Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election? Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Alvin Bragg","probability":0.33944954128440363,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tali Weinstein","probability":0.3211009174311926,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tahanie Aboushi","probability":0.16513761467889906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eliza Orlins","probability":0.06422018348623854,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Quart","probability":0.045871559633027525,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lucy Lang","probability":0.03669724770642201,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyrus Vance","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Florence","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Crotty","probability":0.009174311926605503,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
60 Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next? Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter "S". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Abdelmadjid Tebboune","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Muhammadu Buhari","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Uhuru Kenyatta","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abiy Ahmed","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Félix Tshisekedi","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emmerson Mnangagwa","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nana Akufo-Addo","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cyril Ramaphosa","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kagame","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.38,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
61 Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022? How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.64,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.07547169811320754,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.6132075471698113,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.22641509433962262,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
62 How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against? Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. This market shall close when the Senate has voted on whether to confirm at least one nominee to all of the above positions. Should more than one confirmation vote take place for the same Cabinet position before the market closes, all of Senator Hawley's Cabinet confirmation votes shall be considered when resolving this market. Should Senator Hawley cease to be a Senator before at least one vote has been taken on all nominees, this market will close at the time of his departure. The results of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"12 or fewer","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19","probability":0.029126213592233007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20","probability":0.14563106796116504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21","probability":0.44660194174757284,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22","probability":0.30097087378640774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.18518518518518517,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.1574074074074074,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.12962962962962962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Juan Arteaga","probability":0.12962962962962962,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.10185185185185185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.09259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.046296296296296294,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.037037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.037037037037037035,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.027777777777777776,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gigi Sohn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edward Smith","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
63 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust? Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Jonathan Kanter","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Renata Hesse","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Sallet","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Slaughter","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Terrell McSweeny","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Leibowitz","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Deborah Feinstein","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Susan Davies","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steven Sunshine","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dave Gelfand","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonia Pfaffenroth","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.8349514563106796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.1553398058252427,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.009708737864077669,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
64 Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election? How many Senators vote to confirm Neera Tanden as OMB Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7123/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Neera-Tanden-as-OMB-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Neera Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tanden be confirmed to position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "49 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "74 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tanden to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Andrés Arauz","probability":0.8316831683168316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guillermo Lasso","probability":0.15841584158415842,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yaku Pérez","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"49 or fewer","probability":0.9166666666666666,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50 to 52","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"53 to 55","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"56 to 58","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"59 to 61","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 or more","probability":0.009259259259259259,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
67 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination? Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tim Ryan","probability":0.7,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Acton","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joyce Beatty","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nan Whaley","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emilia Sykes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.673076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.10576923076923077,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.06730769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
68 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination? How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"John Fetterman","probability":0.6732673267326733,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malcolm Kenyatta","probability":0.1188118811881188,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conor Lamb","probability":0.10891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Madeleine Dean","probability":0.06930693069306931,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim Kenney","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe Sestak","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.09900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.07920792079207921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.18811881188118812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.19801980198019803,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.21782178217821782,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.1782178217821782,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
69 How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election? Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"62 or fewer","probability":0.08737864077669902,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 or 64","probability":0.0970873786407767,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 or 66","probability":0.11650485436893203,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"67 or 68","probability":0.1941747572815534,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 or 70","probability":0.23300970873786406,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 or 72","probability":0.1650485436893204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or 74","probability":0.038834951456310676,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or 76","probability":0.029126213592233007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 or 78","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"79 or more","probability":0.019417475728155338,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Guy Reschenthaler","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ryan Costello","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Everett Stern","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlie Dent","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
70 Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination? Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7129/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Ryan Costello","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Guy Reschenthaler","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Everett Stern","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlie Dent","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
71 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire? Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.59,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.41,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.66,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
72 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada? Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7131/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Nevada https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Nevada U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.67,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4752475247524752,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
73 Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin? Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.5247524752475248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.4752475247524752,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.5247524752475247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.1881188118811881,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.05940594059405939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.04950495049504949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.04950495049504949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.04950495049504949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.0198019801980198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.0198019801980198,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.0099009900990099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.0099009900990099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.0099009900990099,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.0099009900990099,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
74 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director? Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. [{"name":"Shalanda Young","probability":0.5714285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nani Coloretti","probability":0.15238095238095234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann O'Leary","probability":0.05714285714285713,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sarah Bianchi","probability":0.04761904761904761,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martha Coven","probability":0.038095238095238085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Lu","probability":0.038095238095238085,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Boushey","probability":0.028571428571428564,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jared Bernstein","probability":0.019047619047619042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sonal Shah","probability":0.019047619047619042,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gene Sperling","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Neera Tanden","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Jones","probability":0.009523809523809521,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.78,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
75 Will Joe Biden resign during his first term? How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7136/Will-Joe-Biden-resign-during-his-first-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/20/2025 11:59 AM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The "next status report" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.23,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.77,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 1M","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1M to 1.05M","probability":0.26,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.05M to 1.1M","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.1M to 1.15M","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.15M to 1.2M","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.2M to 1.25M","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.25M to 1.3M","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.3M to 1.35M","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.35M to 1.4M","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.4M or more","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
76 How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update? Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1 PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The "next status report" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Fewer than 1M","probability":0.13333333333333333,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1M to 1.05M","probability":0.24761904761904763,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.05M to 1.1M","probability":0.2571428571428572,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.1M to 1.15M","probability":0.12380952380952381,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.15M to 1.2M","probability":0.09523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.2M to 1.25M","probability":0.047619047619047616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.25M to 1.3M","probability":0.02857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.3M to 1.35M","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.35M to 1.4M","probability":0.019047619047619046,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"1.4M or more","probability":0.02857142857142857,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.53,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
77 Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1? How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Rob Bonta","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Goodwin Liu","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Darrell Steinberg","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Adam Schiff","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Diana Becton","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Becerra","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Chavez Zbur","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeff Rosen","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"70 or fewer","probability":0.1782178217821782,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.009900990099009901,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.019801980198019802,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.04950495049504951,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 to 88","probability":0.12871287128712872,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"89 to 91","probability":0.21782178217821782,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"92 to 94","probability":0.21782178217821782,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"95 or more","probability":0.1485148514851485,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
84 How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16? Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management & Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science & Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"11 or 12","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"13 or 14","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"15 or 16","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"17 or 18","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"19 or 20","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"21 or 22","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"23 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Nicholas Burns","probability":0.62,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Kritenbrink","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Claire McCaskill","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlene Barshefsky","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rahm Emanuel","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Shambaugh","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
85 How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31? Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "61 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "86 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"61 or fewer","probability":0.008771929824561405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"62 to 64","probability":0.008771929824561405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65 to 67","probability":0.026315789473684213,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"68 to 70","probability":0.07017543859649124,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"71 to 73","probability":0.14035087719298248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"74 to 76","probability":0.2017543859649123,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"77 to 79","probability":0.2017543859649123,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"80 to 82","probability":0.1842105263157895,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"83 to 85","probability":0.11403508771929825,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"86 or more","probability":0.04385964912280702,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Doug Collins","probability":0.45,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Herschel Walker","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Carr","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Perdue","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kelly Loeffler","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoff Duncan","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Kemp","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
86 Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District? Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically. Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market: * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded [{"name":"Susan Wright","probability":0.6634615384615384,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jana Sanchez","probability":0.18269230769230768,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Harrison","probability":0.04807692307692308,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jake Ellzey","probability":0.038461538461538464,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Rodimer","probability":0.028846153846153844,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Katrina Pierson","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sery Kim","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lydia Bean","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shawn Lassiter","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"New Hampshire","probability":0.7735849056603774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nevada","probability":0.09433962264150945,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iowa","probability":0.07547169811320756,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"South Carolina","probability":0.05660377358490567,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
87 Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021? Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) [{"name":"Lorena González","probability":0.49,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colleen Echohawk","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bruce Harrell","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lance Randall","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jenny Durkan","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.61,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
88 Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China? Will Vanita Gupta be confirmed as Associate Attorney General by May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7161/Will-Vanita-Gupta-be-confirmed-as-Associate-Attorney-General-by-May-1 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Vanita Gupta is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Associate Attorney General by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Nicholas Burns","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Kritenbrink","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Claire McCaskill","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlene Barshefsky","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rahm Emanuel","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Shambaugh","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.93,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.06999999999999995,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
89 Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination? Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Doug Collins","probability":0.4,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Herschel Walker","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Carr","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kelly Loeffler","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Perdue","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoff Duncan","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Kemp","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Eric Schmitt","probability":0.4230769230769231,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Greitens","probability":0.19230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jason Smith","probability":0.125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann Wagner","probability":0.11538461538461538,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Billy Long","probability":0.09615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Kehoe","probability":0.019230769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Blunt","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Ashcroft","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carl Edwards","probability":0.009615384615384616,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
90 Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee? Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination PredictIt Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and "beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. Should two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically. Additional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market: * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * "Beauty contest" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"New Hampshire","probability":0.798076923076923,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nevada","probability":0.07692307692307693,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"South Carolina","probability":0.06730769230769232,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Iowa","probability":0.05769230769230769,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Mark Walker","probability":0.52,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lara Trump","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Budd","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat McCrory","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Forest","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burr","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Meadows","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
93 Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination? How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Eric Schmitt","probability":0.36,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Greitens","probability":0.22,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jason Smith","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ann Wagner","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Kehoe","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Billy Long","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jay Ashcroft","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Roy Blunt","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Carl Edwards","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"38 or fewer","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"39","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"41","probability":0.018867924528301886,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42","probability":0.9339622641509433,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"43","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009433962264150943,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
94 Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination? How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Mark Walker","probability":0.55,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lara Trump","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Budd","probability":0.13,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pat McCrory","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Forest","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burr","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mark Meadows","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.29,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
95 Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021? Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7164/Will-the-Senate-end-filibuster-on-any-bill-with-less-than-3-5-support-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.84,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.72,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
96 Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1? Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district PredictIt This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.79,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20999999999999996,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
97 How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election? Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"38 or fewer","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"39","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"40","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"41","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"42","probability":0.9428571428571428,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"43","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"44 or more","probability":0.009523809523809523,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.89,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
98 How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021? What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7172/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2022-election PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the "Tie Votes" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that control a majority of seats in the U.S. House and Senate respectively, as a result of the 2022 general election. The 2022 general election is understood to include any special election that may be held concurrently, as well as the outcome of any subsequent runoff to decide the winner of a House or Senate seat. Control of a seat in the House of Representatives shall be solely determined by the ballot-listed affiliation of the person elected to that seat in the 2022 general election. Members elected to the House of Representatives who do not have full voting rights (e.g., "delegates” or “resident commissioners”) are not included for purposes of resolving this market. Control of a seat in the Senate that is contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the ballot-listed party affiliation of the individual elected to that seat. An individual elected to the Senate in the 2022 general election who does not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either of the Democratic or Republican parties will nonetheless be considered to be affiliated with one party or the other in the event that, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, such person a) is an incumbent Senator who is a member of that party’s caucus; or b) is not an incumbent Senator but who has most recently publicly stated the intention to caucus with that party. Control of a seat in the Senate that is not contested in the 2022 general election shall be determined by the caucus affiliation of the incumbent, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day. In the event that a Senate seat is vacant at 12:01 a.m. (ET) on Election Day, and not subject to election on that date, that seat shall not be considered for the purposes of resolving this market. Should the Democratic and Republican parties control an equal number of Senate seats as a result of the 2022 general election, control of the chamber shall be determined by the party affiliation of the Vice President. Determination of the winners of Senate and House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 general election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"3 votes","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"4 or 5 votes","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"6 or 7 votes","probability":0.07,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"8 or 9 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"10 or 11 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"12 or 13 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"14 or 15 votes","probability":0.1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"16 or 17 votes","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"18 or 19 votes","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20 or more","probability":0.33,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"R House, D Senate","probability":0.48,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dem. House & Senate","probability":0.21600000000000003,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rep. House & Senate","probability":0.184,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"D House, R Senate","probability":0.12,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
99 Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1? Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.28,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.18,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0.05,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hillary Clinton","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
100 Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district? Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7174/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-impeached-before-Sept-1 PredictIt This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.37,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.63,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.35,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.65,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
101 Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021? Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Democratic Senate nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7175/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Democratic-Senate-nomination PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Tishaura Jones","probability":0.9108910891089109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cara Spencer","probability":0.0891089108910891,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Jeff Jackson","probability":0.31,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Erica Smith","probability":0.06,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Lee Watkins","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heath Shuler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
102 Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7176/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Alaska-in-2022 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the political party affiliation of the candidate who wins the 2022 Alaska U.S. Senate election. A candidate's party affiliation shall be determined exclusively by such person's ballot-listed affiliation in the election. Candidates who do not have a ballot-listed affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties shall be considered to be "Independent." PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. [{"name":"Letitia James","probability":0.27,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathy Hochul","probability":0.24,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0.17,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alessandra Biaggi","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jumaane Williams","probability":0.04,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"A. Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.03,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bill de Blasio","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Thomas DiNapoli","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Suozzi","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.73,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Independent","probability":0.15,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.09,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
103 How many Yea votes in the House for the American Dream and Promise Act? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7177/How-many-Yea-votes-in-the-House-for-the-American-Dream-and-Promise-Act PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. House of Representatives who, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 17, 2021, but before the End Date listed below, vote in favor of passage of the American Dream and Promise Act. Should more than one such vote be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. Should no such vote conclude by the End Date, or should the first such vote result in the rejection of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "216 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the passage of the bill via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "233 or more" shall resolve as Yes. Once the results of the vote have been announced and without objection the motion to reconsider has been laid upon the table, a request by any representative to add a vote or to change his or her recorded vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market. Votes taken in committee, as well as any other interim or procedural votes, shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"216 or fewer","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"217 or 218","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"219 or 220","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"221 or 222","probability":0.19,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"223 or 224","probability":0.16,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"225 or 226","probability":0.11,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"227 or 228","probability":0.08,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"229 or 230","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"231 or 232","probability":0.01,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"233 or more","probability":0.02,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
104 How many Senators vote to confirm Shalanda Young as OMB Deputy Director by 4/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7178/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Shalanda-Young-as-OMB-Deputy-Director-by-4-15 PredictIt The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Shalanda Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Young be confirmed to position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "56 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "81 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Young to the position of Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) [{"name":"56 or fewer","probability":0.24324324324324323,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"57 to 59","probability":0.11711711711711711,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60 to 62","probability":0.14414414414414414,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"63 to 65","probability":0.1081081081081081,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"66 to 68","probability":0.09909909909909909,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69 to 71","probability":0.07207207207207207,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"72 to 74","probability":0.05405405405405405,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 to 77","probability":0.036036036036036036,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"78 to 80","probability":0.04504504504504504,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"81 or more","probability":0.08108108108108107,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 3
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Symbol,Security,SEC filings,GICS Sector,GICS Sub-Industry,Headquarters Location,Date first added,CIK,Founded
MMM,3M Company,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1976-08-09,0000066740,1902
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"North Chicago, Illinois",1964-03-31,0000001800,1888
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"North Chicago, Illinois",2012-12-31,0001551152,2013 (1888)
ABMD,Abiomed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Danvers, Massachusetts",2018-05-31,0000815094,1981
ACN,Accenture,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-07-06,0001467373,1989
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Santa Monica, California",2015-08-31,0000718877,2008
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",1997-05-05,0000796343,1982
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2017-03-20,0000002488,1969
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automotive Retail,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2015-07-09,0001158449,1932
AES,AES Corp,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Arlington, Virginia",1998-10-02,0000874761,1981
AFL,Aflac,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Columbus, Georgia",1999-05-28,0000004977,1955
A,Agilent Technologies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2000-06-05,0001090872,1999
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",1985-04-30,0000002969,1940
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2007-07-12,0001086222,1998
ALK,Alaska Air Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Seattle, Washington",2016-05-13,0000766421,1985
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2016-07-01,0000915913,1994
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Pasadena, California",2017-03-20,0001035443,1994
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Boston, Massachusetts",2012-05-25,0000899866,1992
ALGN,Align Technology,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Jose, California",2017-06-19,0001097149,1997
ALLE,Allegion,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2013-12-02,0001579241,1908
LNT,Alliant Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Madison, Wisconsin",2016-07-01,0000352541,1917
ALL,Allstate Corp,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Northfield Township, Illinois",1995-07-13,0000899051,1931
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2014-04-03,0001652044,1998
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Mountain View, California",2006-04-03,0001652044,1998
MO,Altria Group Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"Richmond, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000764180,1985
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2005-11-18,0001018724,1994
AMCR,Amcor plc,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Warmley, Bristol, United Kingdom",2019-06-07,0001748790,2019 (1860)
AEE,Ameren Corp,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"St. Louis, Missouri",1991-09-19,0001002910,1902
AAL,American Airlines Group,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Fort Worth, Texas",2015-03-23,0000006201,1934
AEP,American Electric Power,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Columbus, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000004904,1906
AXP,American Express,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"New York, New York",1976-06-30,0000004962,1850
AIG,American International Group,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",1980-03-31,0000005272,1919
AMT,American Tower Corp.,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2007-11-19,0001053507,1995
AWK,American Water Works,reports,Utilities,Water Utilities,"Camden, New Jersey",2016-03-04,0001410636,1886
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",2005-10-03,0000820027,1894
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania",2001-08-30,0001140859,1985
AME,Ametek,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Berwyn, Pennsylvania",2013-09-23,0001037868,1930
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Thousand Oaks, California",1992-01-02,0000318154,1980
APH,Amphenol Corp,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Wallingford, Connecticut",2008-09-30,0000820313,1932
ADI,"Analog Devices, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Norwood, Massachusetts",1999-10-12,0000006281,1965
ANSS,"ANSYS, Inc.",reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Canonsburg, Pennsylvania",2017-06-19,0001013462,1969
ANTM,Anthem,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-07-25,0001156039,2014 (1946)
AON,Aon plc,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",1996-04-23,0000315293,1982 (1919)
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2017-07-26,0000091142,1916
APA,APA Corporation,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1997-07-28,0000006769,1954
AAPL,Apple Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Cupertino, California",1982-11-30,0000320193,1977
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",1995-03-16,0000006951,1967
APTV,Aptiv PLC,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2012-12-24,0001521332,1994
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Agricultural Products,"Chicago, Illinois",1981-07-29,0000007084,1902
ANET,Arista Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Santa Clara, California",2018-08-28,0001596532,2004
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"Rolling Meadows, Illinois",2016-05-31,0000354190,1927
AIZ,Assurant,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",2007-04-10,0001267238,1892
T,AT&T Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"Dallas, Texas",1983-11-30 (1957-03-04),0000732717,1983 (1885)
ATO,Atmos Energy,reports,Utilities,Gas Utilities,"Dallas, Texas",2019-02-15,0000731802,1906
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Rafael, California",1989-12-01,0000769397,1982
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Roseland, New Jersey",1981-03-31,0000008670,1949
AZO,AutoZone Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Memphis, Tennessee",1997-01-02,0000866787,1979
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Arlington, Virginia[3]",2007-01-10,0000915912,1978
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Glendale, California",1987-12-31,0000008818,1990
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2017-07-07,0001701605,2017
BLL,Ball Corp,reports,Materials,Metal & Glass Containers,"Broomfield, Colorado",1984-10-31,0000009389,1880
BAC,Bank of America Corp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0000070858,1998 (1923 / 1874)
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",1995-03-31,0001390777,1784
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Deerfield, Illinois",1972-09-30,0000010456,1931
BDX,Becton Dickinson,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Franklin Lakes, New Jersey",1972-09-30,0000010795,1897
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,reports,Financials,Multi-Sector Holdings,"Omaha, Nebraska",2010-02-16,0001067983,1839
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Computer & Electronics Retail,"Richfield, Minnesota",1999-06-29,0000764478,1966
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Hercules, California",2020-06-22,0000012208,1952
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2003-11-13,0000875045,1978
BLK,BlackRock,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"New York, New York",2011-04-04,0001364742,1988
BA,Boeing Company,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000012927,1916
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Norwalk, Connecticut",2009-11-06,0001075531,1996
BWA,BorgWarner,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Auto Parts & Equipment,"Auburn Hills, Michigan",2011-12-19,0000908255,1880
BXP,Boston Properties,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2006-04-03,0001037540,1970
BSX,Boston Scientific,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts[4]",1995-02-24,0000885725,1979
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000014272,1989
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2014-05-08,0001730168,1961
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Lake Success, New York",2018-06-18,0001383312,1962
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Louisville, Kentucky",1982-10-31,0000014693,1870
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Eden Prairie, Minnesota",2007-03-02,0001043277,1905
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2008-06-23,0000858470,1989
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Jose, California",2017-09-18,0000813672,1988
CPB,Campbell Soup,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Camden, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000016732,1869
COF,Capital One Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",1998-07-01,0000927628,1935
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Dublin, Ohio",1997-05-27,0000721371,1971
KMX,Carmax Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Richmond, Virginia",2010-06-28,0001170010,1993
CCL,Carnival Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",1998-12-22,0000815097,1972
CARR,Carrier Global,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Palm Beach Gardens, Florida",2020-04-03,0001783180,2020 (1915)
CTLT,Catalent,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Somerset, New Jersey",2020-09-21,0001596783,2007
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Deerfield, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000018230,1925
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2017-03-01,0001374310,1973
CBRE,CBRE Group,reports,Real Estate,Real Estate Services,"Dallas, Texas",2006-11-10,0001138118,1906
CDW,CDW,reports,Information Technology,Technology Distributors,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-09-23,0001402057,1984
CE,Celanese,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Irving, Texas",2018-12-24,0001306830,1918
CNC,Centene Corporation,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"St. Louis, Missouri",2016-03-30,0001071739,1984
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Houston, Texas",1985-07-31,0001130310,1882
CERN,Cerner,reports,Health Care,Health Care Technology,"North Kansas City, Missouri",2010-04-30,0000804753,1979
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Deerfield, Illinois",2008-08-27,0001324404,1946
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"Westlake, Texas",1997-06-02,0000316709,1971
CHTR,Charter Communications,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Stamford, Connecticut",2016-09-08,0001091667,1993
CVX,Chevron Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"San Ramon, California",1957-03-04,0000093410,1879
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Newport Beach, California",2011-04-28,0001058090,1993
CB,Chubb Limited,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Zurich, Switzerland",2010-07-15,0000896159,1985
CHD,Church & Dwight,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Ewing, New Jersey",2015-12-29,0000313927,1847
CI,Cigna,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Bloomfield, Connecticut",1976-06-30,0001739940,1982
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Fairfield, Ohio",1997-12-18,0000020286,1950
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Mason, Ohio",2001-03-01,0000723254,1929
CSCO,Cisco Systems,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"San Jose, California",1993-12-01,0000858877,1984
C,Citigroup Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1988-05-31,0000831001,1998
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Providence, Rhode Island",2016-01-29,0000759944,1828
CTXS,Citrix Systems,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Fort Lauderdale, Florida",1999-12-01,0000877890,1989
CLX,The Clorox Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Oakland, California",1969-03-31,0000021076,1913
CME,CME Group Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Chicago, Illinois",2006-08-11,0001156375,1848
CMS,CMS Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Jackson, Michigan",1999-05-03,0000811156,1886
KO,Coca-Cola Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000021344,1886
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Teaneck, New Jersey",2006-11-17,0001058290,1994
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000021665,1806
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2002-11-19,0001166691,1963
CMA,Comerica Inc.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Dallas, Texas",1995-12-01,0000028412,1849
CAG,Conagra Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",1983-08-31,0000023217,1919
COP,ConocoPhillips,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0001163165,2002
ED,Consolidated Edison,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New York, New York",,0001047862,1823
STZ,Constellation Brands,reports,Consumer Staples,Distillers & Vintners,"Victor, New York",2005-07-01,0000016918,1945
COO,The Cooper Companies,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"San Ramon, California",2016-09-23,0000711404,1958
CPRT,Copart Inc,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Dallas, Texas",2018-07-02,0000900075,1982
GLW,Corning Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Components,"Corning, New York",,0000024741,1851
CTVA,Corteva,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-06-03,0001755672,2019
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Issaquah, Washington",1993-10-01,0000909832,1976
CCI,Crown Castle,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Houston, Texas",2012-03-14,0001051470,1994
CSX,CSX Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Jacksonville, Florida",1967-09-30,0000277948,1980
CMI,Cummins Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Columbus, Indiana",1965-03-31,0000026172,1919
CVS,CVS Health,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Woonsocket, Rhode Island",1957-03-04,0000064803,1996
DHI,D. R. Horton,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Arlington, Texas",2005-06-22,0000882184,1978
DHR,Danaher Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Washington, D.C.",,0000313616,1969
DRI,Darden Restaurants,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Orlando, Florida",,0000940944,1938
DVA,DaVita Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Denver, Colorado",2008-07-31,0000927066,1979
DE,Deere & Co.,reports,Industrials,Agricultural & Farm Machinery,"Moline, Illinois",1957-03-04,0000315189,1837
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Atlanta, Georgia",2013-09-11,0000027904,1929
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Charlotte, North Carolina",2008-11-14,0000818479,2016 (1969)
DVN,Devon Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2000-08-30,0001090012,1971
DXCM,DexCom,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2020-05-12,0001093557,1999
FANG,Diamondback Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Midland, Texas",2018-12-03,0001539838,2007
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Austin, Texas",2016-05-18,0001297996,2004
DFS,Discover Financial Services,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Riverwoods, Illinois",2007-07-02,0001393612,1985
DISCA,"Discovery, Inc. (Series A)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2010-03-01,0001437107,1985
DISCK,"Discovery, Inc. (Series C)",reports,Communication Services,Broadcasting,"New York, New York",2014-08-07,0001437107,1985
DISH,Dish Network,reports,Communication Services,Cable & Satellite,"Meridian, Colorado",2017-03-13,0001001082,1980
DG,Dollar General,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Goodlettsville, Tennessee",2012-12-03,0000029534,1939
DLTR,Dollar Tree,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Chesapeake, Virginia",2011-12-19,0000935703,1986
D,Dominion Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Richmond, Virginia",,0000715957,1983
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Ann Arbor, Michigan",2020-05-12,0001286681,1960
DOV,Dover Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Downers Grove, Illinois",1985-10-31,0000029905,1955
DOW,Dow Inc.,reports,Materials,Commodity Chemicals,"Midland, Michigan",2019-04-01,0001751788,2019
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Detroit, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000936340,1995
DUK,Duke Energy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1976-06-30,0001326160,1904
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2017-07-26,0000783280,1972
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Wilmington, Delaware",2019-04-02,0001666700,2017
DXC,DXC Technology,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-04-04,0001688568,2017
EMN,Eastman Chemical,reports,Materials,Diversified Chemicals,"Kingsport, Tennessee",1994-01-01,0000915389,1920
ETN,Eaton Corporation,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",,0001551182,1911
EBAY,eBay Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"San Jose, California",2002-07-22,0001065088,1995
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"St. Paul, Minnesota",1989-01-31,0000031462,1923
EIX,Edison Int'l,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Rosemead, California",1957-03-04,0000827052,1886
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Irvine, California",2011-04-01,0001099800,1958
EA,Electronic Arts,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"Redwood City, California",2002-07-22,0000712515,1982
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Ferguson, Missouri",1965-03-31,0000032604,1890
ENPH,Enphase Energy,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Fremont, California",2021-01-07,0001463101,2006
ETR,Entergy Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"New Orleans, Louisiana",1957-03-04,0000065984,1913
EOG,EOG Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",2000-11-02,0000821189,1999
EFX,Equifax Inc.,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",1997-06-19,0000033185,1899
EQIX,Equinix,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Redwood City, California",2015-03-20,0001101239,1998
EQR,Equity Residential,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2001-12-03,0000906107,1969
ESS,"Essex Property Trust, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"San Mateo, California",2014-04-02,0000920522,1971
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"New York, New York",2006-01-05,0001001250,1946
ETSY,Etsy,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Brooklyn, New York",2020-09-21,0001370637,2005
EVRG,Evergy,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Kansas City, Missouri",2018-06-05,0001711269,1909
ES,Eversource Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Hartford, Connecticut",,0000072741,1966
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,reports,Financials,Reinsurance,"Hamilton, Bermuda",2017-06-19,0001095073,1973
EXC,Exelon Corp.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Chicago, Illinois",1957-03-04,0001109357,2000
EXPE,Expedia Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Internet & Direct Marketing Retail,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-02,0001324424,1996
EXPD,Expeditors,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Seattle, Washington",2007-10-10,0000746515,1979
EXR,Extra Space Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2016-01-19,0001289490,1977
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000034088,1999
FFIV,F5 Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Seattle, Washington",2010-12-20,0001048695,1996
FB,"Facebook, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"Menlo Park, California",2013-12-23,0001326801,2004
FAST,Fastenal Co,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Winona, Minnesota",2008-09-15,0000815556,1967
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Rockville, Maryland",2016-02-01,0000034903,1962
FDX,FedEx Corporation,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Memphis, Tennessee",1980-12-31,0001048911,1971
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Jacksonville, Florida",2006-11-10,0001136893,1968
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cincinnati, Ohio",,0000035527,1858
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Akron, Ohio",,0001031296,1997
FRC,First Republic Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"San Francisco, California",2019-01-02,0001132979,1985
FISV,Fiserv Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Brookfield, Wisconsin",2001-04-02,0000798354,1984
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Norcross, Georgia",2018-06-20,0001175454,2000
FLIR,FLIR Systems,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Wilsonville, Oregon",2009-01-02,0000354908,1978
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Irving, Texas",2008-10-02,0000030625,1997
FMC,FMC Corporation,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2009-08-19,0000037785,1883
F,Ford Motor Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Dearborn, Michigan",1957-03-04,0000037996,1903
FTNT,Fortinet,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Sunnyvale, California",2018-10-11,0001262039,2000
FTV,Fortive Corp,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Everett, Washington",2016-07-01,0001659166,2016
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Deerfield, Illinois",2016-06-22,0001519751,2011 (1969)
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2013-07-01,0001754301,2019
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001754301,2019
BEN,Franklin Resources,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"San Mateo, California",,0000038777,1947
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,reports,Materials,Copper,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000831259,1912
GPS,Gap Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"San Francisco, California",1986-08-31,0000039911,1969
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Consumer Electronics,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2012-12-12,0001121788,1989
IT,Gartner Inc,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Stamford, Connecticut",2017-04-05,0000749251,1979
GD,General Dynamics,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Falls Church, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000040533,1899
GE,General Electric,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000040545,1892
GIS,General Mills,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Golden Valley, Minnesota",1969-03-31,0000040704,1856
GM,General Motors,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Detroit, Michigan",2013-06-06,0001467858,1908
GPC,Genuine Parts,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Atlanta, Georgia",1973-12-31,0000040987,1925
GILD,Gilead Sciences,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Foster City, California",2004-07-01,0000882095,1987
GL,Globe Life Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"McKinney, Texas",1989-04-30,0000320335,1900
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2016-04-25,0001123360,2000
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",2002-07-22,0000886982,1869
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",1981-06-30,0000277135,1927
HAL,Halliburton Co.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",1957-03-04,0000045012,1919
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Winston-Salem, North Carolina",2015-03-20,0001359841,2000
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Hartford, Connecticut",1957-03-04,0000874766,1810
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Leisure Products,"Pawtucket, Rhode Island",1984-09-30,0000046080,1923
HCA,HCA Healthcare,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"Nashville, Tennessee",2015-01-27,0000860730,1968
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Long Beach, California",2008-03-31,0000765880,1985
HSIC,Henry Schein,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Melville, New York",2015-03-17,0001000228,1932
HSY,The Hershey Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hershey, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000047111,1894
HES,Hess Corporation,reports,Energy,Integrated Oil & Gas,"New York, New York",1984-05-31,0000004447,1919
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Houston, Texas",2015-11-02,0001645590,2015
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Tysons Corner, Virginia",2017-06-19,0001585689,1919
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Dallas, Texas",2018-06-18,0000048039,1947
HOLX,Hologic,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Marlborough, Massachusetts",2016-03-30,0000859737,1985
HD,Home Depot,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Atlanta, Georgia",1988-03-31,0000354950,1978
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Morristown, New Jersey",1964-03-31,0000773840,1906
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Austin, Minnesota",2009-03-04,0000048465,1891
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,reports,Real Estate,Hotel & Resort REITs,"Bethesda, Maryland",2007-03-20,0001070750,1993
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1964-03-31,0000004281,2016
HPQ,HP Inc.,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Palo Alto, California",1974-12-31,0000047217,1939 (2015)
HUM,Humana Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Louisville, Kentucky",,0000049071,1961
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Columbus, Ohio",,0000049196,1866
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Newport News, Virginia",2018-01-03,0001501585,2011
IEX,IDEX Corporation,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2019-08-09,0000832101,1988
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Westbrook, Maine",2017-01-05,0000874716,1983
INFO,IHS Markit,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"London, United Kingdom",2017-06-02,0001598014,1959
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Glenview, Illinois",1986-02-28,0000049826,1912
ILMN,Illumina Inc,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"San Diego, California",2015-11-19,0001110803,1998
INCY,Incyte,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Wilmington, Delaware",2017-02-28,0000879169,1991
IR,Ingersoll Rand,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2020-03-03,0001699150,1859
INTC,Intel Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",1976-12-31,0000050863,1968
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"Atlanta, Georgia",2007-09-26,0001571949,2000
IBM,International Business Machines,reports,Information Technology,IT Consulting & Other Services,"Armonk, New York",1957-03-04,0000051143,1911
IP,International Paper,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Memphis, Tennessee",1957-03-04,0000051434,1898
IPG,Interpublic Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",1992-10-01,0000051644,1961 (1930)
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"New York, New York",1976-03-31,0000051253,1958 (1889)
INTU,Intuit Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2000-12-05,0000896878,1983
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2008-06-02,0001035267,1995
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Atlanta, Georgia",2008-08-21,0000914208,1935
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Oxford, Massachusetts",2018-03-07,0001111928,1990
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Durham, North Carolina",2017-08-29,0001478242,1982
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boston, Massachusetts",2009-01-06,0001020569,1951
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Monett, Missouri",2018-11-13,0000779152,1976
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Dallas, Texas",2007-10-26,0000052988,1947
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Lowell, Arkansas",2015-07-01,0000728535,1961
SJM,JM Smucker,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Orrville, Ohio",2008-11-06,0000091419,1897
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New Brunswick, New Jersey",1973-06-30,0000200406,1886
JCI,Johnson Controls International,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Cork, Ireland",2010-08-27,0000833444,1885
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"New York, New York",1975-06-30,0000019617,2000 (1799 / 1871)
JNPR,Juniper Networks,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Sunnyvale, California",2006-06-02,0001043604,1996
KSU,Kansas City Southern,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Kansas City, Missouri",2013-05-24,0000054480,1887
K,Kellogg Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Battle Creek, Michigan",,0000055067,1906
KEY,KeyCorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Cleveland, Ohio",1994-03-01,0000091576,1825
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Santa Rosa, California",2018-11-06,0001601046,2014
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,reports,Consumer Staples,Household Products,"Irving, Texas",1957-03-04,0000055785,1872
KIM,Kimco Realty,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"New Hyde Park, New York",2006-04-04,0000879101,1958
KMI,Kinder Morgan,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-25,0001506307,1997
KLAC,KLA Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Milpitas, California",,0000319201,1975/1977 (1997)
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2015-07-06,0001637459,2015 (1869)
KR,Kroger Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Retail,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000056873,1883
LB,L Brands Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Columbus, Ohio",1983-09-30,0000701985,1963
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Melbourne, Florida",2008-09-22,0000202058,2019 (1895)
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Burlington, North Carolina",2004-11-01,0000920148,1978
LRCX,Lam Research,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"Fremont, California",2012-06-29,0000707549,1980
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Eagle, Idaho",2018-12-03,0001679273,2016 (1950)
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Las Vegas, Nevada",2019-10-03,0001300514,1988
LEG,Leggett & Platt,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Carthage, Missouri",,0000058492,1883
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,reports,Industrials,Diversified Support Services,"Reston, Virginia",2019-08-09,0001336920,1969
LEN,Lennar Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Miami, Florida",2005-10-04,0000920760,1954
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Indianapolis, Indiana",1970-12-31,0000059478,1876
LNC,Lincoln National,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"Radnor, Pennsylvania",1976-06-30,0000059558,1905
LIN,Linde plc,reports,Materials,Industrial Gases,"Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom",1992-07-01,0001707925,1879
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Beverly Hills, California",2019-12-23,0001335258,2010
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Chicago, Illinois",2016-05-23,0001065696,1998
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Bethesda, Maryland",1984-07-31,0000936468,1995
L,Loews Corp.,reports,Financials,Multi-line Insurance,"New York, New York",,0000060086,1959
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Improvement Retail,"Mooresville, North Carolina",1984-02-29,0000060667,1904/1946/1959
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,reports,Communication Services,Alternative Carriers,"Monroe, Louisiana",1999-03-25,0000018926,1983 (1877)
LYB,LyondellBasell,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Rotterdam, Netherlands",2012-09-05,0001489393,2007
MTB,M&T Bank,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Buffalo, New York",2004-02-23,0000036270,1856
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1991-05-01,0000101778,1887
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Findlay, Ohio",2011-07-01,0001510295,2009 (1887)
MKTX,MarketAxess,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2019-07-01,0001278021,2000
MAR,Marriott International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Bethesda, Maryland",,0001048286,1927
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"New York, New York",1987-08-31,0000062709,1905
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2014-07-02,0000916076,1993
MAS,Masco Corp.,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Livonia, Michigan",1981-06-30,0000062996,1929
MA,Mastercard Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Harrison, New York",2008-07-18,0001141391,1966
MKC,McCormick & Co.,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Hunt Valley, Maryland",,0000063754,1889
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",2018-12-03,0000743316,1983
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Chicago, Illinois",1970-06-30,0000063908,1940
MCK,McKesson Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Irving, Texas",,0000927653,1833
MDT,Medtronic plc,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",1986-10-31,0001613103,1949
MRK,Merck & Co.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Kenilworth, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000310158,1891
MET,MetLife Inc.,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"New York, New York",,0001099219,1868
MTD,Mettler Toledo,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Columbus, Ohio",2016-09-06,0001037646,1945
MGM,MGM Resorts International,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2017-07-26,0000789570,1986
MCHP,Microchip Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Chandler, Arizona",2007-09-07,0000827054,1989
MU,Micron Technology,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Boise, Idaho",1994-09-27,0000723125,1978
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Redmond, Washington",1994-06-01,0000789019,1975
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Memphis, Tennessee",2016-12-02,0000912595,1977
MHK,Mohawk Industries,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Home Furnishings,"Calhoun, Georgia",2013-12-23,0000851968,1878
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,reports,Consumer Staples,Brewers,"Denver, Colorado",1976-06-30,0000024545,"2005 (Molson 1786, Coors 1873)"
MDLZ,Mondelez International,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Chicago, Illinois",2012-10-02,0001103982,2012
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Kirkland, Washington",2021-02-12,0001280452,1997
MNST,Monster Beverage,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Corona, California",2012-06-28,0000865752,2012 (1935)
MCO,Moody's Corp,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0001059556,1909
MS,Morgan Stanley,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"New York, New York",,0000895421,1935
MOS,The Mosaic Company,reports,Materials,Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals,"Tampa, Florida",2011-09-26,0001285785,2004 (1865 / 1909)
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Communications Equipment,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000068505,1928 (2011)
MSCI,MSCI Inc,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2018-04-04,0001408198,1969
NDAQ,"Nasdaq, Inc.",reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",2008-10-22,0001120193,1971
NTAP,NetApp,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Sunnyvale, California",1999-06-25,0001002047,1992
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Los Gatos, California",2010-12-20,0001065280,1997
NWL,Newell Brands,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Housewares & Specialties,"Atlanta, Georgia",1989-04-30,0000814453,1903
NEM,Newmont Corporation,reports,Materials,Gold,"Denver, Colorado",1969-06-30,0001164727,1921
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2013-08-01,0001564708,2013 (1980)
NWS,News Corp (Class B),reports,Communication Services,Publishing,"New York, New York",2015-09-18,0001564708,2013 (1980)
NEE,NextEra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Juno Beach, Florida",1976-06-30,0000753308,1984 (1925)
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"New York, New York",2013-07-09,0001492633,1923
NKE,"Nike, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Washington County, Oregon",1988-11-30,0000320187,1964
NI,NiSource Inc.,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Merrillville, Indiana",,0001111711,1912
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Norfolk, Virginia",1957-03-04,0000702165,1881/1894 (1980)
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Chicago, Illinois",,0000073124,1889
NOC,Northrop Grumman,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"West Falls Church, Virginia",1985-06-30,0001133421,"1994 (Northrop 1939, Grumman 1930)"
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Tempe, Arizona",2003-03-25,0000849399,1982
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2017-10-13,0001513761,2011 (1966)
NOV,NOV Inc.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Houston, Texas",2005-03-14,0001021860,1841
NRG,NRG Energy,reports,Utilities,Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders,"Princeton, New Jersey",2010-01-29,0001013871,1992
NUE,Nucor Corp.,reports,Materials,Steel,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1985-04-30,0000073309,1940
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Santa Clara, California",2001-11-30,0001045810,1993
NVR,"NVR, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Reston, Virginia",2019-09-26,0000906163,1980
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Springfield, Missouri",2009-03-27,0000898173,1957
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Houston, Texas",1982-12-31,0000797468,1920
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,reports,Industrials,Trucking,"Thomasville, North Carolina",2019-12-09,0000878927,1934
OMC,Omnicom Group,reports,Communication Services,Advertising,"New York, New York",,0000029989,1986
OKE,Oneok,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",2010-03-15,0001039684,1906
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Austin, Texas",1989-08-31,0001341439,1977
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Farmington, Connecticut",2020-04-03,0001781335,2020 (1853)
PCAR,Paccar,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Bellevue, Washington",1980-12-31,0000075362,1905
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Lake Forest, Illinois",2017-07-26,0000075677,1959
PH,Parker-Hannifin,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Cleveland, Ohio",1985-11-30,0000076334,1917
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Penfield, New York",,0000723531,1971
PAYC,Paycom,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Oklahoma City, Oklahoma",2020-01-28,0001590955,1998
PYPL,PayPal,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Jose, California",2015-07-20,0001633917,1998
PNR,Pentair plc,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Worsley, UK",2012-10-01,0000077360,1966
PBCT,People's United Financial,reports,Financials,Thrifts & Mortgage Finance,"Bridgeport, Connecticut",2008-11-13,0001378946,1842
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,reports,Consumer Staples,Soft Drinks,"Purchase, New York",1957-03-04,0000077476,1898
PKI,PerkinElmer,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Waltham, Massachusetts",1985-05-31,0000031791,1937
PRGO,Perrigo,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Dublin, Ireland",2011-12-19,0001585364,2013 (1887)
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"New York, New York",1957-03-04,0000078003,1849
PM,Philip Morris International,reports,Consumer Staples,Tobacco,"New York, New York",2008-03-31,0001413329,2008 (1847)
PSX,Phillips 66,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"Houston, Texas",2012-05-01,0001534701,2012 (1917)
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Phoenix, Arizona",,0000764622,1985
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Exploration & Production,"Irving, Texas",2008-09-24,0001038357,1997
PNC,PNC Financial Services,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1988-04-30,0000713676,1845
POOL,Pool Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Distributors,"Covington, Louisiana",2020-10-07,0000945841,1993
PPG,PPG Industries,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",1957-03-04,0000079879,1883
PPL,PPL Corp.,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Allentown, Pennsylvania",,0000922224,1920
PFG,Principal Financial Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Des Moines, Iowa",2002-07-22,0001126328,1879
PG,Procter & Gamble,reports,Consumer Staples,Personal Products,"Cincinnati, Ohio",1957-03-04,0000080424,1837
PGR,Progressive Corp.,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Mayfield Village, Ohio",1997-08-04,0000080661,1937
PLD,Prologis,reports,Real Estate,Industrial REITs,"San Francisco, California",2003-07-17,0001045609,1983
PRU,Prudential Financial,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Newark, New Jersey",2002-07-22,0001137774,1875
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Newark, New Jersey",1957-03-04,0000788784,1903
PSA,Public Storage,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Glendale, California",2005-08-19,0001393311,1972
PHM,PulteGroup,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Homebuilding,"Atlanta, Georgia",1984-04-30,0000822416,1956
PVH,PVH Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2013-02-15,0000078239,1881
QRVO,Qorvo,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Greensboro, North Carolina",2015-06-11,0001604778,2015
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,reports,Industrials,Construction & Engineering,"Houston, Texas",2009-07-01,0001050915,1997
QCOM,Qualcomm,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Diego, California",,0000804328,1985
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,reports,Health Care,Health Care Services,"Secaucus, New Jersey",2002-12-12,0001022079,1967
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",2007-02-02,0001037038,1967
RJF,Raymond James Financial,reports,Financials,Investment Banking & Brokerage,"St. Petersburg, Florida",2017-03-20,0000720005,1962
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Waltham, Massachusetts",,0000101829,1922
O,Realty Income Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"San Diego, California",2015-04-07,0000726728,1969
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Jacksonville, Florida",2017-03-02,0000910606,1963
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Tarrytown, New York",2013-05-01,0000872589,1988
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Birmingham, Alabama",1998-08-28,0001281761,1971
RSG,Republic Services Inc,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Phoenix, Arizona",2008-12-05,0001060391,1998 (1981)
RMD,ResMed,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"San Diego, California",2017-07-26,0000943819,1989
RHI,Robert Half International,reports,Industrials,Human Resource & Employment Services,"Menlo Park, California",2000-12-05,0000315213,1948
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,reports,Industrials,Electrical Components & Equipment,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",,0001024478,1903
ROL,"Rollins, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Atlanta, Georgia",2018-10-01,0000084839,1948
ROP,Roper Technologies,reports,Industrials,Industrial Conglomerates,"Sarasota, Florida",2009-12-23,0000882835,1981
ROST,Ross Stores,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Dublin, California",2009-12-21,0000745732,1982
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines","Miami, Florida",2014-12-05,0000884887,1997
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,reports,Financials,Financial Exchanges & Data,"New York, New York",,0000064040,1917
CRM,Salesforce.com,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"San Francisco, California",2008-09-15,0001108524,1999
SBAC,SBA Communications,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Boca Raton, Florida",2017-09-01,0001034054,1989
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Equipment & Services,"Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands",1965-03-31,0000087347,1926
STX,Seagate Technology,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Dublin, Ireland",2012-07-02,0001137789,1979
SEE,Sealed Air,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1957-03-04,0001012100,1960
SRE,Sempra Energy,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"San Diego, California",,0001032208,1998
NOW,ServiceNow,reports,Information Technology,Systems Software,"Santa Clara, California",2019-11-21,0001373715,2003
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,reports,Materials,Specialty Chemicals,"Cleveland, Ohio",1964-06-30,0000089800,1866
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,reports,Real Estate,Retail REITs,"Indianapolis, Indiana",2002-06-26,0001063761,2003
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Woburn, Massachusetts",2015-03-12,0000004127,2002
SLG,SL Green Realty,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",2015-03-20,0001040971,1997
SNA,Snap-on,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"Kenosha, Wisconsin",1982-09-30,0000091440,1920
SO,Southern Company,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Atlanta, Georgia",1957-03-04,0000092122,1945
LUV,Southwest Airlines,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Dallas, Texas",1994-07-01,0000092380,1967
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"New Britain, Connecticut",1982-09-30,0000093556,1843
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Seattle, Washington",,0000829224,1971
STT,State Street Corp.,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Boston, Massachusetts",,0000093751,1792
STE,Steris,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Dublin, Ireland",2019-12-23,0001757898,1985
SYK,Stryker Corp.,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Kalamazoo, Michigan",2000-12-12,0000310764,1941
SIVB,SVB Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Santa Clara, California",2018-03-19,0000719739,1983
SYF,Synchrony Financial,reports,Financials,Consumer Finance,"Stamford, Connecticut",2015-11-18,0001601712,2003
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Mountain View, California",2017-03-16,0000883241,1986
SYY,Sysco Corp.,reports,Consumer Staples,Food Distributors,"Houston, Texas",1986-12-31,0000096021,1969
TMUS,T-Mobile US,reports,Communication Services,Wireless Telecommunication Services,"Bellevue, Washington",2019-07-15,0001283699,1994
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,reports,Financials,Asset Management & Custody Banks,"Baltimore, Maryland",,0001113169,1937
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,reports,Communication Services,Interactive Home Entertainment,"New York, New York",2018-03-19,0000946581,1993
TPR,"Tapestry, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","New York, New York",,0001116132,2017
TGT,Target Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,General Merchandise Stores,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1976-12-31,0000027419,1902
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Manufacturing Services,"Schaffhausen, Switzerland",2011-10-17,0001385157,2007
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Thousand Oaks, California",2020-06-22,0001094285,1960
TFX,Teleflex,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Wayne, Pennsylvania",2019-01-18,0000096943,1943
TER,Teradyne,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductor Equipment,"North Reading, Massachusetts",2020-09-21,0000097210,1960
TSLA,"Tesla, Inc.",reports,Consumer Discretionary,Automobile Manufacturers,"Palo Alto, California",2020-12-21,0001318605,2003
TXN,Texas Instruments,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"Dallas, Texas",,0000097476,1930
TXT,Textron Inc.,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Providence, Rhode Island",1978-12-31,0000217346,1923
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,reports,Health Care,Life Sciences Tools & Services,"Waltham, Massachusetts",2004-08-03,0000097745,2006 (1902)
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Apparel Retail,"Framingham, Massachusetts",1985-09-30,0000109198,1987
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Brentwood, Tennessee",2014-01-24,0000916365,1938
TT,Trane Technologies plc,reports,Industrials,Building Products,"Dublin, Ireland",2010-11-17,0001466258,1871
TDG,TransDigm Group,reports,Industrials,Aerospace & Defense,"Cleveland, Ohio",2016-06-03,0001260221,1993
TRV,The Travelers Companies,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"New York, New York",2002-08-21,0000086312,1853
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Sunnyvale, California",2021-01-21,0000864749,1978
TFC,Truist Financial,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Charlotte, North Carolina",1997-12-04,0000092230,1872
TWTR,"Twitter, Inc.",reports,Communication Services,Interactive Media & Services,"San Francisco, California",2018-06-07,0001418091,2006
TYL,Tyler Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Application Software,"Plano, Texas",2020-06-22,0000860731,1966
TSN,Tyson Foods,reports,Consumer Staples,Packaged Foods & Meats,"Springdale, Arkansas",,0000100493,1935
UDR,"UDR, Inc.",reports,Real Estate,Residential REITs,"Highlands Ranch, Colorado",2016-03-07,0000074208,1972
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Specialty Stores,"Bolingbrook, Illinois",2016-04-18,0001403568,1990
USB,U.S. Bancorp,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",,0000036104,1968
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2014-05-01,0001336917,1996
UA,Under Armour (Class C),reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Baltimore, Maryland",2016-04-08,0001336917,1996
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,reports,Industrials,Railroads,"Omaha, Nebraska",1957-03-04,0000100885,1862
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,reports,Industrials,Airlines,"Chicago, Illinois",2015-09-03,0000100517,1967
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,reports,Health Care,Managed Health Care,"Minnetonka, Minnesota",1994-07-01,0000731766,1977
UPS,United Parcel Service,reports,Industrials,Air Freight & Logistics,"Atlanta, Georgia",2002-07-22,0001090727,1907
URI,"United Rentals, Inc.",reports,Industrials,Trading Companies & Distributors,"Stamford, Connecticut",2014-09-20,0001067701,1997
UHS,Universal Health Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Facilities,"King of Prussia, Pennsylvania",2014-09-20,0000352915,1979
UNM,Unum Group,reports,Financials,Life & Health Insurance,"Chattanooga, Tennessee",1994-03-01,0000005513,1999
VLO,Valero Energy,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing,"San Antonio, Texas",,0001035002,1980
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Palo Alto, California",2007-02-12,0000203527,1948
VTR,Ventas Inc,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Chicago, Illinois",2009-03-04,0000740260,1998
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Internet Services & Infrastructure,"Dulles, Virginia",2006-02-01,0001014473,1995
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,reports,Industrials,Research & Consulting Services,"Jersey City, New Jersey",2015-10-08,0001442145,1971
VZ,Verizon Communications,reports,Communication Services,Integrated Telecommunication Services,"New York, New York",1983-11-30,0000732712,1983 (1877)
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,reports,Health Care,Biotechnology,"Cambridge, Massachusetts",2013-09-23,0000875320,1989
VFC,VF Corporation,reports,Consumer Discretionary,"Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods","Denver, Colorado",1979-06-30,0000103379,1899
VIAC,ViacomCBS,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"New York, New York",,0000813828,2019 (1952)
VTRS,Viatris,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania",2004-04-23,0001792044,1961
V,Visa Inc.,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"San Francisco, California",2009-12-21,0001403161,1958
VNT,Vontier,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Raleigh, North Carolina",2020-10-09,0001786842,2019
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,reports,Real Estate,Office REITs,"New York, New York",,0000899689,1982
VMC,Vulcan Materials,reports,Materials,Construction Materials,"Birmingham, Alabama",1999-06-30,0001396009,1909
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,reports,Financials,Property & Casualty Insurance,"Greenwich, Connecticut",2019-12-05,0000011544,1967
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,reports,Industrials,Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks,"Wilmerding, Pennsylvania",2019-02-27,0000943452,1999 (1869)
WMT,Walmart,reports,Consumer Staples,Hypermarkets & Super Centers,"Bentonville, Arkansas",1982-08-31,0000104169,1962
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,reports,Consumer Staples,Drug Retail,"Deerfield, Illinois",1979-12-31,0001618921,2014
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,reports,Communication Services,Movies & Entertainment,"Burbank, California",1976-06-30,0001744489,1923
WM,Waste Management Inc.,reports,Industrials,Environmental & Facilities Services,"Houston, Texas",,0000823768,1968
WAT,Waters Corporation,reports,Health Care,Health Care Distributors,"Milford, Massachusetts",,0001000697,1958
WEC,WEC Energy Group,reports,Utilities,Electric Utilities,"Milwaukee, Wisconsin",2008-10-31,0000783325,1896
WFC,Wells Fargo,reports,Financials,Diversified Banks,"San Francisco, California",1976-06-30,0000072971,1852
WELL,Welltower Inc.,reports,Real Estate,Health Care REITs,"Toledo, Ohio",2009-01-30,0000766704,1970
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,reports,Health Care,Health Care Supplies,"Exton, Pennsylvania",2020-05-22,0000105770,1923
WDC,Western Digital,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","San Jose, California",2009-07-01,0000106040,1970
WU,Western Union Co,reports,Information Technology,Data Processing & Outsourced Services,"Englewood, Colorado",2006-09-29,0001365135,1851
WRK,WestRock,reports,Materials,Paper Packaging,"Atlanta, Georgia",,0001732845,2015
WY,Weyerhaeuser,reports,Real Estate,Specialized REITs,"Federal Way, Washington",,0000106535,1900
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Household Appliances,"Benton Harbor, Michigan",,0000106640,1911
WMB,Williams Companies,reports,Energy,Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation,"Tulsa, Oklahoma",1975-03-31,0000107263,1908
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,reports,Financials,Insurance Brokers,"London, United Kingdom",2016-01-05,0001140536,2016
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Casinos & Gaming,"Paradise, Nevada",2008-11-14,0001174922,2002
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,reports,Utilities,Multi-Utilities,"Minneapolis, Minnesota",1957-03-04,0000072903,1909
XRX,Xerox,reports,Information Technology,"Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals","Norwalk, Connecticut",,0001770450,2017 (1906)
XLNX,Xilinx,reports,Information Technology,Semiconductors,"San Jose, California",1999-11-08,0000743988,1984
XYL,Xylem Inc.,reports,Industrials,Industrial Machinery,"White Plains, New York",2011-11-01,0001524472,2011
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,reports,Consumer Discretionary,Restaurants,"Louisville, Kentucky",1997-10-06,0001041061,1997
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,reports,Information Technology,Electronic Equipment & Instruments,"Lincolnshire, Illinois",2019-12-23,0000877212,1969
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,reports,Health Care,Health Care Equipment,"Warsaw, Indiana",2001-08-07,0001136869,1927
ZION,Zions Bancorp,reports,Financials,Regional Banks,"Salt Lake City, Utah",2001-06-22,0000109380,1873
ZTS,Zoetis,reports,Health Care,Pharmaceuticals,"Parsippany, New Jersey",2013-06-21,0001555280,1952
1 Symbol Security SEC filings GICS Sector GICS Sub-Industry Headquarters Location Date first added CIK Founded
2 MMM 3M Company reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates St. Paul, Minnesota 1976-08-09 0000066740 1902
3 ABT Abbott Laboratories reports Health Care Health Care Equipment North Chicago, Illinois 1964-03-31 0000001800 1888
4 ABBV AbbVie Inc. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals North Chicago, Illinois 2012-12-31 0001551152 2013 (1888)
5 ABMD Abiomed reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Danvers, Massachusetts 2018-05-31 0000815094 1981
6 ACN Accenture reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Dublin, Ireland 2011-07-06 0001467373 1989
7 ATVI Activision Blizzard reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment Santa Monica, California 2015-08-31 0000718877 2008
8 ADBE Adobe Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software San Jose, California 1997-05-05 0000796343 1982
9 AMD Advanced Micro Devices reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 2017-03-20 0000002488 1969
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts reports Consumer Discretionary Automotive Retail Raleigh, North Carolina 2015-07-09 0001158449 1932
11 AES AES Corp reports Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Arlington, Virginia 1998-10-02 0000874761 1981
12 AFL Aflac reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Columbus, Georgia 1999-05-28 0000004977 1955
13 A Agilent Technologies reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Santa Clara, California 2000-06-05 0001090872 1999
14 APD Air Products & Chemicals reports Materials Industrial Gases Allentown, Pennsylvania 1985-04-30 0000002969 1940
15 AKAM Akamai Technologies reports Information Technology Internet Services & Infrastructure Cambridge, Massachusetts 2007-07-12 0001086222 1998
16 ALK Alaska Air Group reports Industrials Airlines Seattle, Washington 2016-05-13 0000766421 1985
17 ALB Albemarle Corporation reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Charlotte, North Carolina 2016-07-01 0000915913 1994
18 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities reports Real Estate Office REITs Pasadena, California 2017-03-20 0001035443 1994
19 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Boston, Massachusetts 2012-05-25 0000899866 1992
20 ALGN Align Technology reports Health Care Health Care Supplies San Jose, California 2017-06-19 0001097149 1997
21 ALLE Allegion reports Industrials Building Products Dublin, Ireland 2013-12-02 0001579241 1908
22 LNT Alliant Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Madison, Wisconsin 2016-07-01 0000352541 1917
23 ALL Allstate Corp reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Northfield Township, Illinois 1995-07-13 0000899051 1931
24 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Mountain View, California 2014-04-03 0001652044 1998
25 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Mountain View, California 2006-04-03 0001652044 1998
26 MO Altria Group Inc reports Consumer Staples Tobacco Richmond, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000764180 1985
27 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Seattle, Washington 2005-11-18 0001018724 1994
28 AMCR Amcor plc reports Materials Paper Packaging Warmley, Bristol, United Kingdom 2019-06-07 0001748790 2019 (1860)
29 AEE Ameren Corp reports Utilities Multi-Utilities St. Louis, Missouri 1991-09-19 0001002910 1902
30 AAL American Airlines Group reports Industrials Airlines Fort Worth, Texas 2015-03-23 0000006201 1934
31 AEP American Electric Power reports Utilities Electric Utilities Columbus, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000004904 1906
32 AXP American Express reports Financials Consumer Finance New York, New York 1976-06-30 0000004962 1850
33 AIG American International Group reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance New York, New York 1980-03-31 0000005272 1919
34 AMT American Tower Corp. reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2007-11-19 0001053507 1995
35 AWK American Water Works reports Utilities Water Utilities Camden, New Jersey 2016-03-04 0001410636 1886
36 AMP Ameriprise Financial reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Minneapolis, Minnesota 2005-10-03 0000820027 1894
37 ABC AmerisourceBergen reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania 2001-08-30 0001140859 1985
38 AME Ametek reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Berwyn, Pennsylvania 2013-09-23 0001037868 1930
39 AMGN Amgen Inc. reports Health Care Biotechnology Thousand Oaks, California 1992-01-02 0000318154 1980
40 APH Amphenol Corp reports Information Technology Electronic Components Wallingford, Connecticut 2008-09-30 0000820313 1932
41 ADI Analog Devices, Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductors Norwood, Massachusetts 1999-10-12 0000006281 1965
42 ANSS ANSYS, Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Canonsburg, Pennsylvania 2017-06-19 0001013462 1969
43 ANTM Anthem reports Health Care Managed Health Care Indianapolis, Indiana 2002-07-25 0001156039 2014 (1946)
44 AON Aon plc reports Financials Insurance Brokers London, United Kingdom 1996-04-23 0000315293 1982 (1919)
45 AOS A.O. Smith Corp reports Industrials Building Products Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2017-07-26 0000091142 1916
46 APA APA Corporation reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1997-07-28 0000006769 1954
47 AAPL Apple Inc. reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Cupertino, California 1982-11-30 0000320193 1977
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Santa Clara, California 1995-03-16 0000006951 1967
49 APTV Aptiv PLC reports Consumer Discretionary Auto Parts & Equipment Dublin, Ireland 2012-12-24 0001521332 1994
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co reports Consumer Staples Agricultural Products Chicago, Illinois 1981-07-29 0000007084 1902
51 ANET Arista Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Santa Clara, California 2018-08-28 0001596532 2004
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. reports Financials Insurance Brokers Rolling Meadows, Illinois 2016-05-31 0000354190 1927
53 AIZ Assurant reports Financials Multi-line Insurance New York, New York 2007-04-10 0001267238 1892
54 T AT&T Inc. reports Communication Services Integrated Telecommunication Services Dallas, Texas 1983-11-30 (1957-03-04) 0000732717 1983 (1885)
55 ATO Atmos Energy reports Utilities Gas Utilities Dallas, Texas 2019-02-15 0000731802 1906
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software San Rafael, California 1989-12-01 0000769397 1982
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Roseland, New Jersey 1981-03-31 0000008670 1949
58 AZO AutoZone Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Memphis, Tennessee 1997-01-02 0000866787 1979
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities reports Real Estate Residential REITs Arlington, Virginia[3] 2007-01-10 0000915912 1978
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp reports Materials Paper Packaging Glendale, California 1987-12-31 0000008818 1990
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 2017-07-07 0001701605 2017
62 BLL Ball Corp reports Materials Metal & Glass Containers Broomfield, Colorado 1984-10-31 0000009389 1880
63 BAC Bank of America Corp reports Financials Diversified Banks Charlotte, North Carolina 1976-06-30 0000070858 1998 (1923 / 1874)
64 BK The Bank of New York Mellon reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks New York, New York 1995-03-31 0001390777 1784
65 BAX Baxter International Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Deerfield, Illinois 1972-09-30 0000010456 1931
66 BDX Becton Dickinson reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Franklin Lakes, New Jersey 1972-09-30 0000010795 1897
67 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway reports Financials Multi-Sector Holdings Omaha, Nebraska 2010-02-16 0001067983 1839
68 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Computer & Electronics Retail Richfield, Minnesota 1999-06-29 0000764478 1966
69 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Hercules, California 2020-06-22 0000012208 1952
70 BIIB Biogen Inc. reports Health Care Biotechnology Cambridge, Massachusetts 2003-11-13 0000875045 1978
71 BLK BlackRock reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks New York, New York 2011-04-04 0001364742 1988
72 BA Boeing Company reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Chicago, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000012927 1916
73 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Norwalk, Connecticut 2009-11-06 0001075531 1996
74 BWA BorgWarner reports Consumer Discretionary Auto Parts & Equipment Auburn Hills, Michigan 2011-12-19 0000908255 1880
75 BXP Boston Properties reports Real Estate Office REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2006-04-03 0001037540 1970
76 BSX Boston Scientific reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Marlborough, Massachusetts[4] 1995-02-24 0000885725 1979
77 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb reports Health Care Health Care Distributors New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000014272 1989
78 AVGO Broadcom Inc. reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 2014-05-08 0001730168 1961
79 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Lake Success, New York 2018-06-18 0001383312 1962
80 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. reports Consumer Staples Distillers & Vintners Louisville, Kentucky 1982-10-31 0000014693 1870
81 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Eden Prairie, Minnesota 2007-03-02 0001043277 1905
82 COG Cabot Oil & Gas reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 2008-06-23 0000858470 1989
83 CDNS Cadence Design Systems reports Information Technology Application Software San Jose, California 2017-09-18 0000813672 1988
84 CPB Campbell Soup reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Camden, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000016732 1869
85 COF Capital One Financial reports Financials Consumer Finance Tysons Corner, Virginia 1998-07-01 0000927628 1935
86 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Dublin, Ohio 1997-05-27 0000721371 1971
87 KMX Carmax Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Richmond, Virginia 2010-06-28 0001170010 1993
88 CCL Carnival Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 1998-12-22 0000815097 1972
89 CARR Carrier Global reports Industrials Building Products Palm Beach Gardens, Florida 2020-04-03 0001783180 2020 (1915)
90 CTLT Catalent reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Somerset, New Jersey 2020-09-21 0001596783 2007
91 CAT Caterpillar Inc. reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Deerfield, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000018230 1925
92 CBOE Cboe Global Markets reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Chicago, Illinois 2017-03-01 0001374310 1973
93 CBRE CBRE Group reports Real Estate Real Estate Services Dallas, Texas 2006-11-10 0001138118 1906
94 CDW CDW reports Information Technology Technology Distributors Lincolnshire, Illinois 2019-09-23 0001402057 1984
95 CE Celanese reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Irving, Texas 2018-12-24 0001306830 1918
96 CNC Centene Corporation reports Health Care Managed Health Care St. Louis, Missouri 2016-03-30 0001071739 1984
97 CNP CenterPoint Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Houston, Texas 1985-07-31 0001130310 1882
98 CERN Cerner reports Health Care Health Care Technology North Kansas City, Missouri 2010-04-30 0000804753 1979
99 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Deerfield, Illinois 2008-08-27 0001324404 1946
100 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage Westlake, Texas 1997-06-02 0000316709 1971
101 CHTR Charter Communications reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Stamford, Connecticut 2016-09-08 0001091667 1993
102 CVX Chevron Corp. reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas San Ramon, California 1957-03-04 0000093410 1879
103 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Newport Beach, California 2011-04-28 0001058090 1993
104 CB Chubb Limited reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Zurich, Switzerland 2010-07-15 0000896159 1985
105 CHD Church & Dwight reports Consumer Staples Household Products Ewing, New Jersey 2015-12-29 0000313927 1847
106 CI Cigna reports Health Care Managed Health Care Bloomfield, Connecticut 1976-06-30 0001739940 1982
107 CINF Cincinnati Financial reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Fairfield, Ohio 1997-12-18 0000020286 1950
108 CTAS Cintas Corporation reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Mason, Ohio 2001-03-01 0000723254 1929
109 CSCO Cisco Systems reports Information Technology Communications Equipment San Jose, California 1993-12-01 0000858877 1984
110 C Citigroup Inc. reports Financials Diversified Banks New York, New York 1988-05-31 0000831001 1998
111 CFG Citizens Financial Group reports Financials Regional Banks Providence, Rhode Island 2016-01-29 0000759944 1828
112 CTXS Citrix Systems reports Information Technology Application Software Fort Lauderdale, Florida 1999-12-01 0000877890 1989
113 CLX The Clorox Company reports Consumer Staples Household Products Oakland, California 1969-03-31 0000021076 1913
114 CME CME Group Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Chicago, Illinois 2006-08-11 0001156375 1848
115 CMS CMS Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Jackson, Michigan 1999-05-03 0000811156 1886
116 KO Coca-Cola Company reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Atlanta, Georgia 1957-03-04 0000021344 1886
117 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Teaneck, New Jersey 2006-11-17 0001058290 1994
118 CL Colgate-Palmolive reports Consumer Staples Household Products New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000021665 1806
119 CMCSA Comcast Corp. reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 2002-11-19 0001166691 1963
120 CMA Comerica Inc. reports Financials Diversified Banks Dallas, Texas 1995-12-01 0000028412 1849
121 CAG Conagra Brands reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois 1983-08-31 0000023217 1919
122 COP ConocoPhillips reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1957-03-04 0001163165 2002
123 ED Consolidated Edison reports Utilities Electric Utilities New York, New York 0001047862 1823
124 STZ Constellation Brands reports Consumer Staples Distillers & Vintners Victor, New York 2005-07-01 0000016918 1945
125 COO The Cooper Companies reports Health Care Health Care Supplies San Ramon, California 2016-09-23 0000711404 1958
126 CPRT Copart Inc reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Dallas, Texas 2018-07-02 0000900075 1982
127 GLW Corning Inc. reports Information Technology Electronic Components Corning, New York 0000024741 1851
128 CTVA Corteva reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Wilmington, Delaware 2019-06-03 0001755672 2019
129 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. reports Consumer Staples Hypermarkets & Super Centers Issaquah, Washington 1993-10-01 0000909832 1976
130 CCI Crown Castle reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Houston, Texas 2012-03-14 0001051470 1994
131 CSX CSX Corp. reports Industrials Railroads Jacksonville, Florida 1967-09-30 0000277948 1980
132 CMI Cummins Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Columbus, Indiana 1965-03-31 0000026172 1919
133 CVS CVS Health reports Health Care Health Care Services Woonsocket, Rhode Island 1957-03-04 0000064803 1996
134 DHI D. R. Horton reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Arlington, Texas 2005-06-22 0000882184 1978
135 DHR Danaher Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Washington, D.C. 0000313616 1969
136 DRI Darden Restaurants reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Orlando, Florida 0000940944 1938
137 DVA DaVita Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Facilities Denver, Colorado 2008-07-31 0000927066 1979
138 DE Deere & Co. reports Industrials Agricultural & Farm Machinery Moline, Illinois 1957-03-04 0000315189 1837
139 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. reports Industrials Airlines Atlanta, Georgia 2013-09-11 0000027904 1929
140 XRAY Dentsply Sirona reports Health Care Health Care Supplies Charlotte, North Carolina 2008-11-14 0000818479 2016 (1969)
141 DVN Devon Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 2000-08-30 0001090012 1971
142 DXCM DexCom reports Health Care Health Care Equipment San Diego, California 2020-05-12 0001093557 1999
143 FANG Diamondback Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Midland, Texas 2018-12-03 0001539838 2007
144 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Austin, Texas 2016-05-18 0001297996 2004
145 DFS Discover Financial Services reports Financials Consumer Finance Riverwoods, Illinois 2007-07-02 0001393612 1985
146 DISCA Discovery, Inc. (Series A) reports Communication Services Broadcasting New York, New York 2010-03-01 0001437107 1985
147 DISCK Discovery, Inc. (Series C) reports Communication Services Broadcasting New York, New York 2014-08-07 0001437107 1985
148 DISH Dish Network reports Communication Services Cable & Satellite Meridian, Colorado 2017-03-13 0001001082 1980
149 DG Dollar General reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Goodlettsville, Tennessee 2012-12-03 0000029534 1939
150 DLTR Dollar Tree reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Chesapeake, Virginia 2011-12-19 0000935703 1986
151 D Dominion Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Richmond, Virginia 0000715957 1983
152 DPZ Domino's Pizza reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Ann Arbor, Michigan 2020-05-12 0001286681 1960
153 DOV Dover Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Downers Grove, Illinois 1985-10-31 0000029905 1955
154 DOW Dow Inc. reports Materials Commodity Chemicals Midland, Michigan 2019-04-01 0001751788 2019
155 DTE DTE Energy Co. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Detroit, Michigan 1957-03-04 0000936340 1995
156 DUK Duke Energy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Charlotte, North Carolina 1976-06-30 0001326160 1904
157 DRE Duke Realty Corp reports Real Estate Industrial REITs Indianapolis, Indiana 2017-07-26 0000783280 1972
158 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Wilmington, Delaware 2019-04-02 0001666700 2017
159 DXC DXC Technology reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Tysons Corner, Virginia 2017-04-04 0001688568 2017
160 EMN Eastman Chemical reports Materials Diversified Chemicals Kingsport, Tennessee 1994-01-01 0000915389 1920
161 ETN Eaton Corporation reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Dublin, Ireland 0001551182 1911
162 EBAY eBay Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail San Jose, California 2002-07-22 0001065088 1995
163 ECL Ecolab Inc. reports Materials Specialty Chemicals St. Paul, Minnesota 1989-01-31 0000031462 1923
164 EIX Edison Int'l reports Utilities Electric Utilities Rosemead, California 1957-03-04 0000827052 1886
165 EW Edwards Lifesciences reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Irvine, California 2011-04-01 0001099800 1958
166 EA Electronic Arts reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment Redwood City, California 2002-07-22 0000712515 1982
167 EMR Emerson Electric Company reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Ferguson, Missouri 1965-03-31 0000032604 1890
168 ENPH Enphase Energy reports Information Technology Semiconductors Fremont, California 2021-01-07 0001463101 2006
169 ETR Entergy Corp. reports Utilities Electric Utilities New Orleans, Louisiana 1957-03-04 0000065984 1913
170 EOG EOG Resources reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 2000-11-02 0000821189 1999
171 EFX Equifax Inc. reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services Atlanta, Georgia 1997-06-19 0000033185 1899
172 EQIX Equinix reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Redwood City, California 2015-03-20 0001101239 1998
173 EQR Equity Residential reports Real Estate Residential REITs Chicago, Illinois 2001-12-03 0000906107 1969
174 ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. reports Real Estate Residential REITs San Mateo, California 2014-04-02 0000920522 1971
175 EL Estée Lauder Companies reports Consumer Staples Personal Products New York, New York 2006-01-05 0001001250 1946
176 ETSY Etsy reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Brooklyn, New York 2020-09-21 0001370637 2005
177 EVRG Evergy reports Utilities Electric Utilities Kansas City, Missouri 2018-06-05 0001711269 1909
178 ES Eversource Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Hartford, Connecticut 0000072741 1966
179 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. reports Financials Reinsurance Hamilton, Bermuda 2017-06-19 0001095073 1973
180 EXC Exelon Corp. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Chicago, Illinois 1957-03-04 0001109357 2000
181 EXPE Expedia Group reports Consumer Discretionary Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Seattle, Washington 2007-10-02 0001324424 1996
182 EXPD Expeditors reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Seattle, Washington 2007-10-10 0000746515 1979
183 EXR Extra Space Storage reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Salt Lake City, Utah 2016-01-19 0001289490 1977
184 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas Irving, Texas 1957-03-04 0000034088 1999
185 FFIV F5 Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Seattle, Washington 2010-12-20 0001048695 1996
186 FB Facebook, Inc. reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services Menlo Park, California 2013-12-23 0001326801 2004
187 FAST Fastenal Co reports Industrials Building Products Winona, Minnesota 2008-09-15 0000815556 1967
188 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust reports Real Estate Retail REITs Rockville, Maryland 2016-02-01 0000034903 1962
189 FDX FedEx Corporation reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Memphis, Tennessee 1980-12-31 0001048911 1971
190 FIS Fidelity National Information Services reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Jacksonville, Florida 2006-11-10 0001136893 1968
191 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp reports Financials Regional Banks Cincinnati, Ohio 0000035527 1858
192 FE FirstEnergy Corp reports Utilities Electric Utilities Akron, Ohio 0001031296 1997
193 FRC First Republic Bank reports Financials Regional Banks San Francisco, California 2019-01-02 0001132979 1985
194 FISV Fiserv Inc reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Brookfield, Wisconsin 2001-04-02 0000798354 1984
195 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Norcross, Georgia 2018-06-20 0001175454 2000
196 FLIR FLIR Systems reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Wilsonville, Oregon 2009-01-02 0000354908 1978
197 FLS Flowserve Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Irving, Texas 2008-10-02 0000030625 1997
198 FMC FMC Corporation reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 2009-08-19 0000037785 1883
199 F Ford Motor Company reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Dearborn, Michigan 1957-03-04 0000037996 1903
200 FTNT Fortinet reports Information Technology Systems Software Sunnyvale, California 2018-10-11 0001262039 2000
201 FTV Fortive Corp reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Everett, Washington 2016-07-01 0001659166 2016
202 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security reports Industrials Building Products Deerfield, Illinois 2016-06-22 0001519751 2011 (1969)
203 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 2013-07-01 0001754301 2019
204 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 2015-09-18 0001754301 2019
205 BEN Franklin Resources reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks San Mateo, California 0000038777 1947
206 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. reports Materials Copper Phoenix, Arizona 0000831259 1912
207 GPS Gap Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail San Francisco, California 1986-08-31 0000039911 1969
208 GRMN Garmin Ltd. reports Consumer Discretionary Consumer Electronics Schaffhausen, Switzerland 2012-12-12 0001121788 1989
209 IT Gartner Inc reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Stamford, Connecticut 2017-04-05 0000749251 1979
210 GD General Dynamics reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Falls Church, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000040533 1899
211 GE General Electric reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Boston, Massachusetts 0000040545 1892
212 GIS General Mills reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Golden Valley, Minnesota 1969-03-31 0000040704 1856
213 GM General Motors reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Detroit, Michigan 2013-06-06 0001467858 1908
214 GPC Genuine Parts reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Atlanta, Georgia 1973-12-31 0000040987 1925
215 GILD Gilead Sciences reports Health Care Biotechnology Foster City, California 2004-07-01 0000882095 1987
216 GL Globe Life Inc. reports Financials Life & Health Insurance McKinney, Texas 1989-04-30 0000320335 1900
217 GPN Global Payments Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Atlanta, Georgia 2016-04-25 0001123360 2000
218 GS Goldman Sachs Group reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage New York, New York 2002-07-22 0000886982 1869
219 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Lake Forest, Illinois 1981-06-30 0000277135 1927
220 HAL Halliburton Co. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 1957-03-04 0000045012 1919
221 HBI Hanesbrands Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Winston-Salem, North Carolina 2015-03-20 0001359841 2000
222 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Hartford, Connecticut 1957-03-04 0000874766 1810
223 HAS Hasbro Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products Pawtucket, Rhode Island 1984-09-30 0000046080 1923
224 HCA HCA Healthcare reports Health Care Health Care Facilities Nashville, Tennessee 2015-01-27 0000860730 1968
225 PEAK Healthpeak Properties reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Long Beach, California 2008-03-31 0000765880 1985
226 HSIC Henry Schein reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Melville, New York 2015-03-17 0001000228 1932
227 HSY The Hershey Company reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Hershey, Pennsylvania 1957-03-04 0000047111 1894
228 HES Hess Corporation reports Energy Integrated Oil & Gas New York, New York 1984-05-31 0000004447 1919
229 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Houston, Texas 2015-11-02 0001645590 2015
230 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Tysons Corner, Virginia 2017-06-19 0001585689 1919
231 HFC HollyFrontier Corp reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Dallas, Texas 2018-06-18 0000048039 1947
232 HOLX Hologic reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Marlborough, Massachusetts 2016-03-30 0000859737 1985
233 HD Home Depot reports Consumer Discretionary Home Improvement Retail Atlanta, Georgia 1988-03-31 0000354950 1978
234 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Morristown, New Jersey 1964-03-31 0000773840 1906
235 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Austin, Minnesota 2009-03-04 0000048465 1891
236 HST Host Hotels & Resorts reports Real Estate Hotel & Resort REITs Bethesda, Maryland 2007-03-20 0001070750 1993
237 HWM Howmet Aerospace reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1964-03-31 0000004281 2016
238 HPQ HP Inc. reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Palo Alto, California 1974-12-31 0000047217 1939 (2015)
239 HUM Humana Inc. reports Health Care Managed Health Care Louisville, Kentucky 0000049071 1961
240 HBAN Huntington Bancshares reports Financials Regional Banks Columbus, Ohio 0000049196 1866
241 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Newport News, Virginia 2018-01-03 0001501585 2011
242 IEX IDEX Corporation reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Lake Forest, Illinois 2019-08-09 0000832101 1988
243 IDXX Idexx Laboratories reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Westbrook, Maine 2017-01-05 0000874716 1983
244 INFO IHS Markit reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services London, United Kingdom 2017-06-02 0001598014 1959
245 ITW Illinois Tool Works reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Glenview, Illinois 1986-02-28 0000049826 1912
246 ILMN Illumina Inc reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services San Diego, California 2015-11-19 0001110803 1998
247 INCY Incyte reports Health Care Biotechnology Wilmington, Delaware 2017-02-28 0000879169 1991
248 IR Ingersoll Rand reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2020-03-03 0001699150 1859
249 INTC Intel Corp. reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 1976-12-31 0000050863 1968
250 ICE Intercontinental Exchange reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data Atlanta, Georgia 2007-09-26 0001571949 2000
251 IBM International Business Machines reports Information Technology IT Consulting & Other Services Armonk, New York 1957-03-04 0000051143 1911
252 IP International Paper reports Materials Paper Packaging Memphis, Tennessee 1957-03-04 0000051434 1898
253 IPG Interpublic Group reports Communication Services Advertising New York, New York 1992-10-01 0000051644 1961 (1930)
254 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances reports Materials Specialty Chemicals New York, New York 1976-03-31 0000051253 1958 (1889)
255 INTU Intuit Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Mountain View, California 2000-12-05 0000896878 1983
256 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Sunnyvale, California 2008-06-02 0001035267 1995
257 IVZ Invesco Ltd. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Atlanta, Georgia 2008-08-21 0000914208 1935
258 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. reports Information Technology Electronic Manufacturing Services Oxford, Massachusetts 2018-03-07 0001111928 1990
259 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Durham, North Carolina 2017-08-29 0001478242 1982
260 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boston, Massachusetts 2009-01-06 0001020569 1951
261 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Monett, Missouri 2018-11-13 0000779152 1976
262 J Jacobs Engineering Group reports Industrials Construction & Engineering Dallas, Texas 2007-10-26 0000052988 1947
263 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services reports Industrials Trucking Lowell, Arkansas 2015-07-01 0000728535 1961
264 SJM JM Smucker reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Orrville, Ohio 2008-11-06 0000091419 1897
265 JNJ Johnson & Johnson reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals New Brunswick, New Jersey 1973-06-30 0000200406 1886
266 JCI Johnson Controls International reports Industrials Building Products Cork, Ireland 2010-08-27 0000833444 1885
267 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports Financials Diversified Banks New York, New York 1975-06-30 0000019617 2000 (1799 / 1871)
268 JNPR Juniper Networks reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Sunnyvale, California 2006-06-02 0001043604 1996
269 KSU Kansas City Southern reports Industrials Railroads Kansas City, Missouri 2013-05-24 0000054480 1887
270 K Kellogg Co. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Battle Creek, Michigan 0000055067 1906
271 KEY KeyCorp reports Financials Regional Banks Cleveland, Ohio 1994-03-01 0000091576 1825
272 KEYS Keysight Technologies reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Santa Rosa, California 2018-11-06 0001601046 2014
273 KMB Kimberly-Clark reports Consumer Staples Household Products Irving, Texas 1957-03-04 0000055785 1872
274 KIM Kimco Realty reports Real Estate Retail REITs New Hyde Park, New York 2006-04-04 0000879101 1958
275 KMI Kinder Morgan reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Houston, Texas 2012-05-25 0001506307 1997
276 KLAC KLA Corporation reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Milpitas, California 0000319201 1975/1977 (1997)
277 KHC Kraft Heinz Co reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 2015-07-06 0001637459 2015 (1869)
278 KR Kroger Co. reports Consumer Staples Food Retail Cincinnati, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000056873 1883
279 LB L Brands Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Columbus, Ohio 1983-09-30 0000701985 1963
280 LHX L3Harris Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Melbourne, Florida 2008-09-22 0000202058 2019 (1895)
281 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding reports Health Care Health Care Services Burlington, North Carolina 2004-11-01 0000920148 1978
282 LRCX Lam Research reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment Fremont, California 2012-06-29 0000707549 1980
283 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Eagle, Idaho 2018-12-03 0001679273 2016 (1950)
284 LVS Las Vegas Sands reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Las Vegas, Nevada 2019-10-03 0001300514 1988
285 LEG Leggett & Platt reports Consumer Discretionary Home Furnishings Carthage, Missouri 0000058492 1883
286 LDOS Leidos Holdings reports Industrials Diversified Support Services Reston, Virginia 2019-08-09 0001336920 1969
287 LEN Lennar Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Miami, Florida 2005-10-04 0000920760 1954
288 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Indianapolis, Indiana 1970-12-31 0000059478 1876
289 LNC Lincoln National reports Financials Multi-line Insurance Radnor, Pennsylvania 1976-06-30 0000059558 1905
290 LIN Linde plc reports Materials Industrial Gases Guildford, Surrey, United Kingdom 1992-07-01 0001707925 1879
291 LYV Live Nation Entertainment reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Beverly Hills, California 2019-12-23 0001335258 2010
292 LKQ LKQ Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Distributors Chicago, Illinois 2016-05-23 0001065696 1998
293 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Bethesda, Maryland 1984-07-31 0000936468 1995
294 L Loews Corp. reports Financials Multi-line Insurance New York, New York 0000060086 1959
295 LOW Lowe's Cos. reports Consumer Discretionary Home Improvement Retail Mooresville, North Carolina 1984-02-29 0000060667 1904/1946/1959
296 LUMN Lumen Technologies reports Communication Services Alternative Carriers Monroe, Louisiana 1999-03-25 0000018926 1983 (1877)
297 LYB LyondellBasell reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Rotterdam, Netherlands 2012-09-05 0001489393 2007
298 MTB M&T Bank reports Financials Regional Banks Buffalo, New York 2004-02-23 0000036270 1856
299 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1991-05-01 0000101778 1887
300 MPC Marathon Petroleum reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Findlay, Ohio 2011-07-01 0001510295 2009 (1887)
301 MKTX MarketAxess reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2019-07-01 0001278021 2000
302 MAR Marriott International reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Bethesda, Maryland 0001048286 1927
303 MMC Marsh & McLennan reports Financials Insurance Brokers New York, New York 1987-08-31 0000062709 1905
304 MLM Martin Marietta Materials reports Materials Construction Materials Raleigh, North Carolina 2014-07-02 0000916076 1993
305 MAS Masco Corp. reports Industrials Building Products Livonia, Michigan 1981-06-30 0000062996 1929
306 MA Mastercard Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Harrison, New York 2008-07-18 0001141391 1966
307 MKC McCormick & Co. reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Hunt Valley, Maryland 0000063754 1889
308 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 2018-12-03 0000743316 1983
309 MCD McDonald's Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Chicago, Illinois 1970-06-30 0000063908 1940
310 MCK McKesson Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Irving, Texas 0000927653 1833
311 MDT Medtronic plc reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Dublin, Ireland 1986-10-31 0001613103 1949
312 MRK Merck & Co. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Kenilworth, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000310158 1891
313 MET MetLife Inc. reports Financials Life & Health Insurance New York, New York 0001099219 1868
314 MTD Mettler Toledo reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Columbus, Ohio 2016-09-06 0001037646 1945
315 MGM MGM Resorts International reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Paradise, Nevada 2017-07-26 0000789570 1986
316 MCHP Microchip Technology reports Information Technology Semiconductors Chandler, Arizona 2007-09-07 0000827054 1989
317 MU Micron Technology reports Information Technology Semiconductors Boise, Idaho 1994-09-27 0000723125 1978
318 MSFT Microsoft Corp. reports Information Technology Systems Software Redmond, Washington 1994-06-01 0000789019 1975
319 MAA Mid-America Apartments reports Real Estate Residential REITs Memphis, Tennessee 2016-12-02 0000912595 1977
320 MHK Mohawk Industries reports Consumer Discretionary Home Furnishings Calhoun, Georgia 2013-12-23 0000851968 1878
321 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company reports Consumer Staples Brewers Denver, Colorado 1976-06-30 0000024545 2005 (Molson 1786, Coors 1873)
322 MDLZ Mondelez International reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Chicago, Illinois 2012-10-02 0001103982 2012
323 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems reports Information Technology Semiconductors Kirkland, Washington 2021-02-12 0001280452 1997
324 MNST Monster Beverage reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Corona, California 2012-06-28 0000865752 2012 (1935)
325 MCO Moody's Corp reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 0001059556 1909
326 MS Morgan Stanley reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage New York, New York 0000895421 1935
327 MOS The Mosaic Company reports Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals Tampa, Florida 2011-09-26 0001285785 2004 (1865 / 1909)
328 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. reports Information Technology Communications Equipment Chicago, Illinois 0000068505 1928 (2011)
329 MSCI MSCI Inc reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2018-04-04 0001408198 1969
330 NDAQ Nasdaq, Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 2008-10-22 0001120193 1971
331 NTAP NetApp reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Sunnyvale, California 1999-06-25 0001002047 1992
332 NFLX Netflix Inc. reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Los Gatos, California 2010-12-20 0001065280 1997
333 NWL Newell Brands reports Consumer Discretionary Housewares & Specialties Atlanta, Georgia 1989-04-30 0000814453 1903
334 NEM Newmont Corporation reports Materials Gold Denver, Colorado 1969-06-30 0001164727 1921
335 NWSA News Corp (Class A) reports Communication Services Publishing New York, New York 2013-08-01 0001564708 2013 (1980)
336 NWS News Corp (Class B) reports Communication Services Publishing New York, New York 2015-09-18 0001564708 2013 (1980)
337 NEE NextEra Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Juno Beach, Florida 1976-06-30 0000753308 1984 (1925)
338 NLSN Nielsen Holdings reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services New York, New York 2013-07-09 0001492633 1923
339 NKE Nike, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Washington County, Oregon 1988-11-30 0000320187 1964
340 NI NiSource Inc. reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Merrillville, Indiana 0001111711 1912
341 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. reports Industrials Railroads Norfolk, Virginia 1957-03-04 0000702165 1881/1894 (1980)
342 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Chicago, Illinois 0000073124 1889
343 NOC Northrop Grumman reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense West Falls Church, Virginia 1985-06-30 0001133421 1994 (Northrop 1939, Grumman 1930)
344 NLOK NortonLifeLock reports Information Technology Application Software Tempe, Arizona 2003-03-25 0000849399 1982
345 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 2017-10-13 0001513761 2011 (1966)
346 NOV NOV Inc. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Houston, Texas 2005-03-14 0001021860 1841
347 NRG NRG Energy reports Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Princeton, New Jersey 2010-01-29 0001013871 1992
348 NUE Nucor Corp. reports Materials Steel Charlotte, North Carolina 1985-04-30 0000073309 1940
349 NVDA Nvidia Corporation reports Information Technology Semiconductors Santa Clara, California 2001-11-30 0001045810 1993
350 NVR NVR, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Reston, Virginia 2019-09-26 0000906163 1980
351 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Springfield, Missouri 2009-03-27 0000898173 1957
352 OXY Occidental Petroleum reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Houston, Texas 1982-12-31 0000797468 1920
353 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line reports Industrials Trucking Thomasville, North Carolina 2019-12-09 0000878927 1934
354 OMC Omnicom Group reports Communication Services Advertising New York, New York 0000029989 1986
355 OKE Oneok reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Tulsa, Oklahoma 2010-03-15 0001039684 1906
356 ORCL Oracle Corp. reports Information Technology Application Software Austin, Texas 1989-08-31 0001341439 1977
357 OTIS Otis Worldwide reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Farmington, Connecticut 2020-04-03 0001781335 2020 (1853)
358 PCAR Paccar reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Bellevue, Washington 1980-12-31 0000075362 1905
359 PKG Packaging Corporation of America reports Materials Paper Packaging Lake Forest, Illinois 2017-07-26 0000075677 1959
360 PH Parker-Hannifin reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Cleveland, Ohio 1985-11-30 0000076334 1917
361 PAYX Paychex Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Penfield, New York 0000723531 1971
362 PAYC Paycom reports Information Technology Application Software Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 2020-01-28 0001590955 1998
363 PYPL PayPal reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services San Jose, California 2015-07-20 0001633917 1998
364 PNR Pentair plc reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Worsley, UK 2012-10-01 0000077360 1966
365 PBCT People's United Financial reports Financials Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Bridgeport, Connecticut 2008-11-13 0001378946 1842
366 PEP PepsiCo Inc. reports Consumer Staples Soft Drinks Purchase, New York 1957-03-04 0000077476 1898
367 PKI PerkinElmer reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Waltham, Massachusetts 1985-05-31 0000031791 1937
368 PRGO Perrigo reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Dublin, Ireland 2011-12-19 0001585364 2013 (1887)
369 PFE Pfizer Inc. reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals New York, New York 1957-03-04 0000078003 1849
370 PM Philip Morris International reports Consumer Staples Tobacco New York, New York 2008-03-31 0001413329 2008 (1847)
371 PSX Phillips 66 reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Houston, Texas 2012-05-01 0001534701 2012 (1917)
372 PNW Pinnacle West Capital reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Phoenix, Arizona 0000764622 1985
373 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources reports Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Irving, Texas 2008-09-24 0001038357 1997
374 PNC PNC Financial Services reports Financials Regional Banks Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1988-04-30 0000713676 1845
375 POOL Pool Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Distributors Covington, Louisiana 2020-10-07 0000945841 1993
376 PPG PPG Industries reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1957-03-04 0000079879 1883
377 PPL PPL Corp. reports Utilities Electric Utilities Allentown, Pennsylvania 0000922224 1920
378 PFG Principal Financial Group reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Des Moines, Iowa 2002-07-22 0001126328 1879
379 PG Procter & Gamble reports Consumer Staples Personal Products Cincinnati, Ohio 1957-03-04 0000080424 1837
380 PGR Progressive Corp. reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Mayfield Village, Ohio 1997-08-04 0000080661 1937
381 PLD Prologis reports Real Estate Industrial REITs San Francisco, California 2003-07-17 0001045609 1983
382 PRU Prudential Financial reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Newark, New Jersey 2002-07-22 0001137774 1875
383 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) reports Utilities Electric Utilities Newark, New Jersey 1957-03-04 0000788784 1903
384 PSA Public Storage reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Glendale, California 2005-08-19 0001393311 1972
385 PHM PulteGroup reports Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding Atlanta, Georgia 1984-04-30 0000822416 1956
386 PVH PVH Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 2013-02-15 0000078239 1881
387 QRVO Qorvo reports Information Technology Semiconductors Greensboro, North Carolina 2015-06-11 0001604778 2015
388 PWR Quanta Services Inc. reports Industrials Construction & Engineering Houston, Texas 2009-07-01 0001050915 1997
389 QCOM Qualcomm reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Diego, California 0000804328 1985
390 DGX Quest Diagnostics reports Health Care Health Care Services Secaucus, New Jersey 2002-12-12 0001022079 1967
391 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 2007-02-02 0001037038 1967
392 RJF Raymond James Financial reports Financials Investment Banking & Brokerage St. Petersburg, Florida 2017-03-20 0000720005 1962
393 RTX Raytheon Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Waltham, Massachusetts 0000101829 1922
394 O Realty Income Corporation reports Real Estate Retail REITs San Diego, California 2015-04-07 0000726728 1969
395 REG Regency Centers Corporation reports Real Estate Retail REITs Jacksonville, Florida 2017-03-02 0000910606 1963
396 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals reports Health Care Biotechnology Tarrytown, New York 2013-05-01 0000872589 1988
397 RF Regions Financial Corp. reports Financials Regional Banks Birmingham, Alabama 1998-08-28 0001281761 1971
398 RSG Republic Services Inc reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Phoenix, Arizona 2008-12-05 0001060391 1998 (1981)
399 RMD ResMed reports Health Care Health Care Equipment San Diego, California 2017-07-26 0000943819 1989
400 RHI Robert Half International reports Industrials Human Resource & Employment Services Menlo Park, California 2000-12-05 0000315213 1948
401 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. reports Industrials Electrical Components & Equipment Milwaukee, Wisconsin 0001024478 1903
402 ROL Rollins, Inc. reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Atlanta, Georgia 2018-10-01 0000084839 1948
403 ROP Roper Technologies reports Industrials Industrial Conglomerates Sarasota, Florida 2009-12-23 0000882835 1981
404 ROST Ross Stores reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Dublin, California 2009-12-21 0000745732 1982
405 RCL Royal Caribbean Group reports Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Miami, Florida 2014-12-05 0000884887 1997
406 SPGI S&P Global Inc. reports Financials Financial Exchanges & Data New York, New York 0000064040 1917
407 CRM Salesforce.com reports Information Technology Application Software San Francisco, California 2008-09-15 0001108524 1999
408 SBAC SBA Communications reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Boca Raton, Florida 2017-09-01 0001034054 1989
409 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. reports Energy Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Curaçao, Kingdom of the Netherlands 1965-03-31 0000087347 1926
410 STX Seagate Technology reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Dublin, Ireland 2012-07-02 0001137789 1979
411 SEE Sealed Air reports Materials Paper Packaging Charlotte, North Carolina 1957-03-04 0001012100 1960
412 SRE Sempra Energy reports Utilities Multi-Utilities San Diego, California 0001032208 1998
413 NOW ServiceNow reports Information Technology Systems Software Santa Clara, California 2019-11-21 0001373715 2003
414 SHW Sherwin-Williams reports Materials Specialty Chemicals Cleveland, Ohio 1964-06-30 0000089800 1866
415 SPG Simon Property Group Inc reports Real Estate Retail REITs Indianapolis, Indiana 2002-06-26 0001063761 2003
416 SWKS Skyworks Solutions reports Information Technology Semiconductors Woburn, Massachusetts 2015-03-12 0000004127 2002
417 SLG SL Green Realty reports Real Estate Office REITs New York, New York 2015-03-20 0001040971 1997
418 SNA Snap-on reports Industrials Industrial Machinery Kenosha, Wisconsin 1982-09-30 0000091440 1920
419 SO Southern Company reports Utilities Electric Utilities Atlanta, Georgia 1957-03-04 0000092122 1945
420 LUV Southwest Airlines reports Industrials Airlines Dallas, Texas 1994-07-01 0000092380 1967
421 SWK Stanley Black & Decker reports Industrials Industrial Machinery New Britain, Connecticut 1982-09-30 0000093556 1843
422 SBUX Starbucks Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Seattle, Washington 0000829224 1971
423 STT State Street Corp. reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Boston, Massachusetts 0000093751 1792
424 STE Steris reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Dublin, Ireland 2019-12-23 0001757898 1985
425 SYK Stryker Corp. reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Kalamazoo, Michigan 2000-12-12 0000310764 1941
426 SIVB SVB Financial reports Financials Regional Banks Santa Clara, California 2018-03-19 0000719739 1983
427 SYF Synchrony Financial reports Financials Consumer Finance Stamford, Connecticut 2015-11-18 0001601712 2003
428 SNPS Synopsys Inc. reports Information Technology Application Software Mountain View, California 2017-03-16 0000883241 1986
429 SYY Sysco Corp. reports Consumer Staples Food Distributors Houston, Texas 1986-12-31 0000096021 1969
430 TMUS T-Mobile US reports Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Bellevue, Washington 2019-07-15 0001283699 1994
431 TROW T. Rowe Price Group reports Financials Asset Management & Custody Banks Baltimore, Maryland 0001113169 1937
432 TTWO Take-Two Interactive reports Communication Services Interactive Home Entertainment New York, New York 2018-03-19 0000946581 1993
433 TPR Tapestry, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods New York, New York 0001116132 2017
434 TGT Target Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary General Merchandise Stores Minneapolis, Minnesota 1976-12-31 0000027419 1902
435 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. reports Information Technology Electronic Manufacturing Services Schaffhausen, Switzerland 2011-10-17 0001385157 2007
436 TDY Teledyne Technologies reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Thousand Oaks, California 2020-06-22 0001094285 1960
437 TFX Teleflex reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Wayne, Pennsylvania 2019-01-18 0000096943 1943
438 TER Teradyne reports Information Technology Semiconductor Equipment North Reading, Massachusetts 2020-09-21 0000097210 1960
439 TSLA Tesla, Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Automobile Manufacturers Palo Alto, California 2020-12-21 0001318605 2003
440 TXN Texas Instruments reports Information Technology Semiconductors Dallas, Texas 0000097476 1930
441 TXT Textron Inc. reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Providence, Rhode Island 1978-12-31 0000217346 1923
442 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific reports Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services Waltham, Massachusetts 2004-08-03 0000097745 2006 (1902)
443 TJX TJX Companies Inc. reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel Retail Framingham, Massachusetts 1985-09-30 0000109198 1987
444 TSCO Tractor Supply Company reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Brentwood, Tennessee 2014-01-24 0000916365 1938
445 TT Trane Technologies plc reports Industrials Building Products Dublin, Ireland 2010-11-17 0001466258 1871
446 TDG TransDigm Group reports Industrials Aerospace & Defense Cleveland, Ohio 2016-06-03 0001260221 1993
447 TRV The Travelers Companies reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance New York, New York 2002-08-21 0000086312 1853
448 TRMB Trimble Inc. reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Sunnyvale, California 2021-01-21 0000864749 1978
449 TFC Truist Financial reports Financials Regional Banks Charlotte, North Carolina 1997-12-04 0000092230 1872
450 TWTR Twitter, Inc. reports Communication Services Interactive Media & Services San Francisco, California 2018-06-07 0001418091 2006
451 TYL Tyler Technologies reports Information Technology Application Software Plano, Texas 2020-06-22 0000860731 1966
452 TSN Tyson Foods reports Consumer Staples Packaged Foods & Meats Springdale, Arkansas 0000100493 1935
453 UDR UDR, Inc. reports Real Estate Residential REITs Highlands Ranch, Colorado 2016-03-07 0000074208 1972
454 ULTA Ulta Beauty reports Consumer Discretionary Specialty Stores Bolingbrook, Illinois 2016-04-18 0001403568 1990
455 USB U.S. Bancorp reports Financials Diversified Banks Minneapolis, Minnesota 0000036104 1968
456 UAA Under Armour (Class A) reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Baltimore, Maryland 2014-05-01 0001336917 1996
457 UA Under Armour (Class C) reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Baltimore, Maryland 2016-04-08 0001336917 1996
458 UNP Union Pacific Corp reports Industrials Railroads Omaha, Nebraska 1957-03-04 0000100885 1862
459 UAL United Airlines Holdings reports Industrials Airlines Chicago, Illinois 2015-09-03 0000100517 1967
460 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. reports Health Care Managed Health Care Minnetonka, Minnesota 1994-07-01 0000731766 1977
461 UPS United Parcel Service reports Industrials Air Freight & Logistics Atlanta, Georgia 2002-07-22 0001090727 1907
462 URI United Rentals, Inc. reports Industrials Trading Companies & Distributors Stamford, Connecticut 2014-09-20 0001067701 1997
463 UHS Universal Health Services reports Health Care Health Care Facilities King of Prussia, Pennsylvania 2014-09-20 0000352915 1979
464 UNM Unum Group reports Financials Life & Health Insurance Chattanooga, Tennessee 1994-03-01 0000005513 1999
465 VLO Valero Energy reports Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing San Antonio, Texas 0001035002 1980
466 VAR Varian Medical Systems reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Palo Alto, California 2007-02-12 0000203527 1948
467 VTR Ventas Inc reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Chicago, Illinois 2009-03-04 0000740260 1998
468 VRSN Verisign Inc. reports Information Technology Internet Services & Infrastructure Dulles, Virginia 2006-02-01 0001014473 1995
469 VRSK Verisk Analytics reports Industrials Research & Consulting Services Jersey City, New Jersey 2015-10-08 0001442145 1971
470 VZ Verizon Communications reports Communication Services Integrated Telecommunication Services New York, New York 1983-11-30 0000732712 1983 (1877)
471 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc reports Health Care Biotechnology Cambridge, Massachusetts 2013-09-23 0000875320 1989
472 VFC VF Corporation reports Consumer Discretionary Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods Denver, Colorado 1979-06-30 0000103379 1899
473 VIAC ViacomCBS reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment New York, New York 0000813828 2019 (1952)
474 VTRS Viatris reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 2004-04-23 0001792044 1961
475 V Visa Inc. reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services San Francisco, California 2009-12-21 0001403161 1958
476 VNT Vontier reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Raleigh, North Carolina 2020-10-09 0001786842 2019
477 VNO Vornado Realty Trust reports Real Estate Office REITs New York, New York 0000899689 1982
478 VMC Vulcan Materials reports Materials Construction Materials Birmingham, Alabama 1999-06-30 0001396009 1909
479 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation reports Financials Property & Casualty Insurance Greenwich, Connecticut 2019-12-05 0000011544 1967
480 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp reports Industrials Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Wilmerding, Pennsylvania 2019-02-27 0000943452 1999 (1869)
481 WMT Walmart reports Consumer Staples Hypermarkets & Super Centers Bentonville, Arkansas 1982-08-31 0000104169 1962
482 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance reports Consumer Staples Drug Retail Deerfield, Illinois 1979-12-31 0001618921 2014
483 DIS The Walt Disney Company reports Communication Services Movies & Entertainment Burbank, California 1976-06-30 0001744489 1923
484 WM Waste Management Inc. reports Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services Houston, Texas 0000823768 1968
485 WAT Waters Corporation reports Health Care Health Care Distributors Milford, Massachusetts 0001000697 1958
486 WEC WEC Energy Group reports Utilities Electric Utilities Milwaukee, Wisconsin 2008-10-31 0000783325 1896
487 WFC Wells Fargo reports Financials Diversified Banks San Francisco, California 1976-06-30 0000072971 1852
488 WELL Welltower Inc. reports Real Estate Health Care REITs Toledo, Ohio 2009-01-30 0000766704 1970
489 WST West Pharmaceutical Services reports Health Care Health Care Supplies Exton, Pennsylvania 2020-05-22 0000105770 1923
490 WDC Western Digital reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals San Jose, California 2009-07-01 0000106040 1970
491 WU Western Union Co reports Information Technology Data Processing & Outsourced Services Englewood, Colorado 2006-09-29 0001365135 1851
492 WRK WestRock reports Materials Paper Packaging Atlanta, Georgia 0001732845 2015
493 WY Weyerhaeuser reports Real Estate Specialized REITs Federal Way, Washington 0000106535 1900
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. reports Consumer Discretionary Household Appliances Benton Harbor, Michigan 0000106640 1911
495 WMB Williams Companies reports Energy Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation Tulsa, Oklahoma 1975-03-31 0000107263 1908
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson reports Financials Insurance Brokers London, United Kingdom 2016-01-05 0001140536 2016
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd reports Consumer Discretionary Casinos & Gaming Paradise, Nevada 2008-11-14 0001174922 2002
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc reports Utilities Multi-Utilities Minneapolis, Minnesota 1957-03-04 0000072903 1909
499 XRX Xerox reports Information Technology Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Norwalk, Connecticut 0001770450 2017 (1906)
500 XLNX Xilinx reports Information Technology Semiconductors San Jose, California 1999-11-08 0000743988 1984
501 XYL Xylem Inc. reports Industrials Industrial Machinery White Plains, New York 2011-11-01 0001524472 2011
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc reports Consumer Discretionary Restaurants Louisville, Kentucky 1997-10-06 0001041061 1997
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies reports Information Technology Electronic Equipment & Instruments Lincolnshire, Illinois 2019-12-23 0000877212 1969
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet reports Health Care Health Care Equipment Warsaw, Indiana 2001-08-07 0001136869 1927
505 ZION Zions Bancorp reports Financials Regional Banks Salt Lake City, Utah 2001-06-22 0000109380 1873
506 ZTS Zoetis reports Health Care Pharmaceuticals Parsippany, New Jersey 2013-06-21 0001555280 1952

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List of companies in the S&P 500 (Standard and Poor's 500). The S&P 500 is a
free-float, capitalization-weighted index of the top 500 publicly listed stocks
in the US (top 500 by market cap). The dataset includes a list of all the
stocks contained therein.
## Data
Information on S&P 500 index used to be available on the [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home]
but until they publish it back, Wikipedia is the best up-to-date and open data source.
* Index listing - see <data/constituents.csv> extracted from Wikipedia's [SP500 list of companies][sp-list].
### Sources
Detailed information on the S&P 500 (primarily in XLS format) used to be obtained
from its [official webpage on the Standard and Poor's website][sp-home] - it was
free but registration was required.
* Index listing - see <data/constituents.csv>
* used to be extracted from [source Excel file on S&P website][sp-listing-dec-2014] but this no longer contains a list of constituents. (Note this Excel was actually S&P 500 EPS estimates but on sheet 4 it used to have a list of members - [previous file][sp-listing] was just members but that 404s as of Dec 2014) (Note: <del>but note you have to register and login to access</del> - no longer true as of August 2013)
* Historical performance ([source xls on S&P website][sp-historical])
[sp-home]: http://www.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500
[sp-list]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies
[sp-listing-dec-2014]: http://www.spindices.com/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx?force_download=true
[sp-listing]: http://us.spindices.com/idsexport/file.xls?hostIdentifier=48190c8c-42c4-46af-8d1a-0cd5db894797&selectedModule=Constituents&selectedSubModule=ConstituentsFullList&indexId=340
[sp-historical]: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/spf/docs/indices/SPUSA-500-USDUF--P-US-L--HistoricalData.xls
*Note*: for aggregate information on the S&P (dividends, earnings, etc.) see
[Standard and Poor's 500 Dataset][shiller].
[shiller]: http://data.okfn.org/data/s-and-p-500
### General Financial Notes
Publicly listed US companies are obliged various reports on a regular basis
with the SEC. Of these 2 types are of especial interest to investors and others
interested in their finances and business. These are:
* 10-K = Annual Report
* 10-Q = Quarterly report
## Preparation
You can run the script yourself to update the data and publish them to GitHub : see [scripts README](https://github.com/datasets/s-and-p-500-companies/blob/master/scripts/README.md).
## License
All data is licensed under the [Open Data Commons Public Domain Dedication and
License][pddl]. All code is licensed under the MIT/BSD license.
Note that while no credit is formally required a link back or credit to [Rufus
Pollock][rp] and the [Open Knowledge Foundation][okfn] is much appreciated.
[pddl]: http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/pddl/1.0/
[rp]: http://rufuspollock.com/
[okfn]: http://okfn.org/

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Symbol,Name,Sector
MMM,3M Company,Industrials
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
AES,AES Corp,Utilities
AFL,Aflac,Financials
A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
AXP,American Express,Financials
AIG,American International Group,Financials
AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
AME,Ametek,Industrials
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
AON,Aon plc,Financials
APA,APA Corporation,Energy
AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
AIZ,Assurant,Financials
T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
BLK,BlackRock,Financials
BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
CDW,CDW,Information Technology
CE,Celanese,Materials
CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
CERN,Cerner,Health Care
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
CI,Cigna,Health Care
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
CTVA,Corteva,Materials
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
GE,General Electric,Industrials
GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
INCY,Incyte,Health Care
IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
IP,International Paper,Materials
IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
LIN,Linde plc,Materials
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
L,Loews Corp.,Financials
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
OKE,Oneok,Energy
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
RMD,ResMed,Health Care
RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
SO,Southern Company,Utilities
LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
STE,Steris,Health Care
SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
UNM,Unum Group,Financials
VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
WRK,WestRock,Materials
WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
1 Symbol Name Sector
2 MMM 3M Company Industrials
3 AOS A.O. Smith Corp Industrials
4 ABT Abbott Laboratories Health Care
5 ABBV AbbVie Inc. Health Care
6 ABMD Abiomed Health Care
7 ACN Accenture Information Technology
8 ATVI Activision Blizzard Communication Services
9 ADBE Adobe Inc. Information Technology
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts Consumer Discretionary
11 AMD Advanced Micro Devices Information Technology
12 AES AES Corp Utilities
13 AFL Aflac Financials
14 A Agilent Technologies Health Care
15 APD Air Products & Chemicals Materials
16 AKAM Akamai Technologies Information Technology
17 ALK Alaska Air Group Industrials
18 ALB Albemarle Corporation Materials
19 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities Real Estate
20 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals Health Care
21 ALGN Align Technology Health Care
22 ALLE Allegion Industrials
23 LNT Alliant Energy Utilities
24 ALL Allstate Corp Financials
25 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) Communication Services
26 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Communication Services
27 MO Altria Group Inc Consumer Staples
28 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. Consumer Discretionary
29 AMCR Amcor plc Materials
30 AEE Ameren Corp Utilities
31 AAL American Airlines Group Industrials
32 AEP American Electric Power Utilities
33 AXP American Express Financials
34 AIG American International Group Financials
35 AMT American Tower Corp. Real Estate
36 AWK American Water Works Utilities
37 AMP Ameriprise Financial Financials
38 ABC AmerisourceBergen Health Care
39 AME Ametek Industrials
40 AMGN Amgen Inc. Health Care
41 APH Amphenol Corp Information Technology
42 ADI Analog Devices Inc. Information Technology
43 ANSS ANSYS Inc. Information Technology
44 ANTM Anthem Health Care
45 AON Aon plc Financials
46 APA APA Corporation Energy
47 AAPL Apple Inc. Information Technology
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. Information Technology
49 APTV Aptiv PLC Consumer Discretionary
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Consumer Staples
51 ANET Arista Networks Information Technology
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financials
53 AIZ Assurant Financials
54 T AT&T Inc. Communication Services
55 ATO Atmos Energy Utilities
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. Information Technology
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing Information Technology
58 AZO AutoZone Inc Consumer Discretionary
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities Real Estate
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp Materials
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co Energy
62 BLL Ball Corp Materials
63 BAC Bank of America Corp Financials
64 BAX Baxter International Inc. Health Care
65 BDX Becton Dickinson Health Care
66 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Financials
67 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Consumer Discretionary
68 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Health Care
69 BIIB Biogen Inc. Health Care
70 BLK BlackRock Financials
71 BA Boeing Company Industrials
72 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
73 BWA BorgWarner Consumer Discretionary
74 BXP Boston Properties Real Estate
75 BSX Boston Scientific Health Care
76 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Health Care
77 AVGO Broadcom Inc. Information Technology
78 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions Information Technology
79 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. Consumer Staples
80 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide Industrials
81 COG Cabot Oil & Gas Energy
82 CDNS Cadence Design Systems Information Technology
83 CPB Campbell Soup Consumer Staples
84 COF Capital One Financial Financials
85 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. Health Care
86 KMX Carmax Inc Consumer Discretionary
87 CCL Carnival Corp. Consumer Discretionary
88 CARR Carrier Global Industrials
89 CTLT Catalent Health Care
90 CAT Caterpillar Inc. Industrials
91 CBOE Cboe Global Markets Financials
92 CBRE CBRE Group Real Estate
93 CDW CDW Information Technology
94 CE Celanese Materials
95 CNC Centene Corporation Health Care
96 CNP CenterPoint Energy Utilities
97 CERN Cerner Health Care
98 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc Materials
99 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation Financials
100 CHTR Charter Communications Communication Services
101 CVX Chevron Corp. Energy
102 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Consumer Discretionary
103 CB Chubb Limited Financials
104 CHD Church & Dwight Consumer Staples
105 CI Cigna Health Care
106 CINF Cincinnati Financial Financials
107 CTAS Cintas Corporation Industrials
108 CSCO Cisco Systems Information Technology
109 C Citigroup Inc. Financials
110 CFG Citizens Financial Group Financials
111 CTXS Citrix Systems Information Technology
112 CME CME Group Inc. Financials
113 CMS CMS Energy Utilities
114 KO Coca-Cola Company Consumer Staples
115 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Information Technology
116 CL Colgate-Palmolive Consumer Staples
117 CMCSA Comcast Corp. Communication Services
118 CMA Comerica Inc. Financials
119 CAG Conagra Brands Consumer Staples
120 COP ConocoPhillips Energy
121 ED Consolidated Edison Utilities
122 STZ Constellation Brands Consumer Staples
123 CPRT Copart Inc Industrials
124 GLW Corning Inc. Information Technology
125 CTVA Corteva Materials
126 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. Consumer Staples
127 CCI Crown Castle Real Estate
128 CSX CSX Corp. Industrials
129 CMI Cummins Inc. Industrials
130 CVS CVS Health Health Care
131 DHI D. R. Horton Consumer Discretionary
132 DHR Danaher Corp. Health Care
133 DRI Darden Restaurants Consumer Discretionary
134 DVA DaVita Inc. Health Care
135 DE Deere & Co. Industrials
136 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Industrials
137 XRAY Dentsply Sirona Health Care
138 DVN Devon Energy Energy
139 DXCM DexCom Health Care
140 FANG Diamondback Energy Energy
141 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc Real Estate
142 DFS Discover Financial Services Financials
143 DISCA Discovery Inc. (Series A) Communication Services
144 DISCK Discovery Inc. (Series C) Communication Services
145 DISH Dish Network Communication Services
146 DG Dollar General Consumer Discretionary
147 DLTR Dollar Tree Consumer Discretionary
148 D Dominion Energy Utilities
149 DPZ Domino's Pizza Consumer Discretionary
150 DOV Dover Corporation Industrials
151 DOW Dow Inc. Materials
152 DTE DTE Energy Co. Utilities
153 DUK Duke Energy Utilities
154 DRE Duke Realty Corp Real Estate
155 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc Materials
156 DXC DXC Technology Information Technology
157 EMN Eastman Chemical Materials
158 ETN Eaton Corporation Industrials
159 EBAY eBay Inc. Consumer Discretionary
160 ECL Ecolab Inc. Materials
161 EIX Edison Int'l Utilities
162 EW Edwards Lifesciences Health Care
163 EA Electronic Arts Communication Services
164 EMR Emerson Electric Company Industrials
165 ENPH Enphase Energy Information Technology
166 ETR Entergy Corp. Utilities
167 EOG EOG Resources Energy
168 EFX Equifax Inc. Industrials
169 EQIX Equinix Real Estate
170 EQR Equity Residential Real Estate
171 ESS Essex Property Trust Inc. Real Estate
172 EL Estée Lauder Companies Consumer Staples
173 ETSY Etsy Consumer Discretionary
174 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. Financials
175 EVRG Evergy Utilities
176 ES Eversource Energy Utilities
177 EXC Exelon Corp. Utilities
178 EXPE Expedia Group Consumer Discretionary
179 EXPD Expeditors Industrials
180 EXR Extra Space Storage Real Estate
181 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. Energy
182 FFIV F5 Networks Information Technology
183 FB Facebook Inc. Communication Services
184 FAST Fastenal Co Industrials
185 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust Real Estate
186 FDX FedEx Corporation Industrials
187 FIS Fidelity National Information Services Information Technology
188 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Financials
189 FRC First Republic Bank Financials
190 FE FirstEnergy Corp Utilities
191 FISV Fiserv Inc Information Technology
192 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc Information Technology
193 FLIR FLIR Systems Information Technology
194 FLS Flowserve Corporation Industrials
195 FMC FMC Corporation Materials
196 F Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary
197 FTNT Fortinet Information Technology
198 FTV Fortive Corp Industrials
199 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security Industrials
200 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) Communication Services
201 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) Communication Services
202 BEN Franklin Resources Financials
203 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials
204 GPS Gap Inc. Consumer Discretionary
205 GRMN Garmin Ltd. Consumer Discretionary
206 IT Gartner Inc Information Technology
207 GD General Dynamics Industrials
208 GE General Electric Industrials
209 GIS General Mills Consumer Staples
210 GM General Motors Consumer Discretionary
211 GPC Genuine Parts Consumer Discretionary
212 GILD Gilead Sciences Health Care
213 GPN Global Payments Inc. Information Technology
214 GL Globe Life Inc. Financials
215 GS Goldman Sachs Group Financials
216 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. Industrials
217 HAL Halliburton Co. Energy
218 HBI Hanesbrands Inc Consumer Discretionary
219 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. Financials
220 HAS Hasbro Inc. Consumer Discretionary
221 HCA HCA Healthcare Health Care
222 PEAK Healthpeak Properties Real Estate
223 HSIC Henry Schein Health Care
224 HES Hess Corporation Energy
225 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Information Technology
226 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
227 HFC HollyFrontier Corp Energy
228 HOLX Hologic Health Care
229 HD Home Depot Consumer Discretionary
230 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. Industrials
231 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. Consumer Staples
232 HST Host Hotels & Resorts Real Estate
233 HWM Howmet Aerospace Industrials
234 HPQ HP Inc. Information Technology
235 HUM Humana Inc. Health Care
236 HBAN Huntington Bancshares Financials
237 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries Industrials
238 IEX IDEX Corporation Industrials
239 IDXX Idexx Laboratories Health Care
240 INFO IHS Markit Industrials
241 ITW Illinois Tool Works Industrials
242 ILMN Illumina Inc Health Care
243 INCY Incyte Health Care
244 IR Ingersoll Rand Industrials
245 INTC Intel Corp. Information Technology
246 ICE Intercontinental Exchange Financials
247 IBM International Business Machines Information Technology
248 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Materials
249 IP International Paper Materials
250 IPG Interpublic Group Communication Services
251 INTU Intuit Inc. Information Technology
252 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. Health Care
253 IVZ Invesco Ltd. Financials
254 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. Information Technology
255 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. Health Care
256 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated Real Estate
257 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services Industrials
258 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Information Technology
259 J Jacobs Engineering Group Industrials
260 SJM JM Smucker Consumer Staples
261 JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care
262 JCI Johnson Controls International Industrials
263 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financials
264 JNPR Juniper Networks Information Technology
265 KSU Kansas City Southern Industrials
266 K Kellogg Co. Consumer Staples
267 KEY KeyCorp Financials
268 KEYS Keysight Technologies Information Technology
269 KMB Kimberly-Clark Consumer Staples
270 KIM Kimco Realty Real Estate
271 KMI Kinder Morgan Energy
272 KLAC KLA Corporation Information Technology
273 KHC Kraft Heinz Co Consumer Staples
274 KR Kroger Co. Consumer Staples
275 LB L Brands Inc. Consumer Discretionary
276 LHX L3Harris Technologies Industrials
277 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding Health Care
278 LRCX Lam Research Information Technology
279 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Consumer Staples
280 LVS Las Vegas Sands Consumer Discretionary
281 LEG Leggett & Platt Consumer Discretionary
282 LDOS Leidos Holdings Information Technology
283 LEN Lennar Corp. Consumer Discretionary
284 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. Health Care
285 LNC Lincoln National Financials
286 LIN Linde plc Materials
287 LYV Live Nation Entertainment Communication Services
288 LKQ LKQ Corporation Consumer Discretionary
289 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. Industrials
290 L Loews Corp. Financials
291 LOW Lowe's Cos. Consumer Discretionary
292 LUMN Lumen Technologies Communication Services
293 LYB LyondellBasell Materials
294 MTB M&T Bank Financials
295 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. Energy
296 MPC Marathon Petroleum Energy
297 MKTX MarketAxess Financials
298 MAR Marriott International Consumer Discretionary
299 MMC Marsh & McLennan Financials
300 MLM Martin Marietta Materials Materials
301 MAS Masco Corp. Industrials
302 MA Mastercard Inc. Information Technology
303 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Information Technology
304 MKC McCormick & Co. Consumer Staples
305 MCD McDonald's Corp. Consumer Discretionary
306 MCK McKesson Corp. Health Care
307 MDT Medtronic plc Health Care
308 MRK Merck & Co. Health Care
309 MET MetLife Inc. Financials
310 MTD Mettler Toledo Health Care
311 MGM MGM Resorts International Consumer Discretionary
312 MCHP Microchip Technology Information Technology
313 MU Micron Technology Information Technology
314 MSFT Microsoft Corp. Information Technology
315 MAA Mid-America Apartments Real Estate
316 MHK Mohawk Industries Consumer Discretionary
317 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company Consumer Staples
318 MDLZ Mondelez International Consumer Staples
319 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Information Technology
320 MNST Monster Beverage Consumer Staples
321 MCO Moody's Corp Financials
322 MS Morgan Stanley Financials
323 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. Information Technology
324 MSCI MSCI Inc Financials
325 NDAQ Nasdaq Inc. Financials
326 NTAP NetApp Information Technology
327 NFLX Netflix Inc. Communication Services
328 NWL Newell Brands Consumer Discretionary
329 NEM Newmont Corporation Materials
330 NWSA News Corp (Class A) Communication Services
331 NWS News Corp (Class B) Communication Services
332 NEE NextEra Energy Utilities
333 NLSN Nielsen Holdings Industrials
334 NKE Nike Inc. Consumer Discretionary
335 NI NiSource Inc. Utilities
336 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. Industrials
337 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. Financials
338 NOC Northrop Grumman Industrials
339 NLOK NortonLifeLock Information Technology
340 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Consumer Discretionary
341 NOV NOV Inc. Energy
342 NRG NRG Energy Utilities
343 NUE Nucor Corp. Materials
344 NVDA Nvidia Corporation Information Technology
345 NVR NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary
346 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Consumer Discretionary
347 OXY Occidental Petroleum Energy
348 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Industrials
349 OMC Omnicom Group Communication Services
350 OKE Oneok Energy
351 ORCL Oracle Corp. Information Technology
352 OTIS Otis Worldwide Industrials
353 PCAR Paccar Industrials
354 PKG Packaging Corporation of America Materials
355 PH Parker-Hannifin Industrials
356 PAYX Paychex Inc. Information Technology
357 PAYC Paycom Information Technology
358 PYPL PayPal Information Technology
359 PNR Pentair plc Industrials
360 PBCT People's United Financial Financials
361 PEP PepsiCo Inc. Consumer Staples
362 PKI PerkinElmer Health Care
363 PRGO Perrigo Health Care
364 PFE Pfizer Inc. Health Care
365 PM Philip Morris International Consumer Staples
366 PSX Phillips 66 Energy
367 PNW Pinnacle West Capital Utilities
368 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Energy
369 PNC PNC Financial Services Financials
370 POOL Pool Corporation Consumer Discretionary
371 PPG PPG Industries Materials
372 PPL PPL Corp. Utilities
373 PFG Principal Financial Group Financials
374 PG Procter & Gamble Consumer Staples
375 PGR Progressive Corp. Financials
376 PLD Prologis Real Estate
377 PRU Prudential Financial Financials
378 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Utilities
379 PSA Public Storage Real Estate
380 PHM PulteGroup Consumer Discretionary
381 PVH PVH Corp. Consumer Discretionary
382 QRVO Qorvo Information Technology
383 QCOM Qualcomm Information Technology
384 PWR Quanta Services Inc. Industrials
385 DGX Quest Diagnostics Health Care
386 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation Consumer Discretionary
387 RJF Raymond James Financial Financials
388 RTX Raytheon Technologies Industrials
389 O Realty Income Corporation Real Estate
390 REG Regency Centers Corporation Real Estate
391 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Health Care
392 RF Regions Financial Corp. Financials
393 RSG Republic Services Inc Industrials
394 RMD ResMed Health Care
395 RHI Robert Half International Industrials
396 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials
397 ROL Rollins Inc. Industrials
398 ROP Roper Technologies Industrials
399 ROST Ross Stores Consumer Discretionary
400 RCL Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary
401 SPGI S&P Global Inc. Financials
402 CRM Salesforce.com Information Technology
403 SBAC SBA Communications Real Estate
404 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. Energy
405 STX Seagate Technology Information Technology
406 SEE Sealed Air Materials
407 SRE Sempra Energy Utilities
408 NOW ServiceNow Information Technology
409 SHW Sherwin-Williams Materials
410 SPG Simon Property Group Inc Real Estate
411 SWKS Skyworks Solutions Information Technology
412 SLG SL Green Realty Real Estate
413 SNA Snap-on Industrials
414 SO Southern Company Utilities
415 LUV Southwest Airlines Industrials
416 SWK Stanley Black & Decker Industrials
417 SBUX Starbucks Corp. Consumer Discretionary
418 STT State Street Corp. Financials
419 STE Steris Health Care
420 SYK Stryker Corp. Health Care
421 SIVB SVB Financial Financials
422 SYF Synchrony Financial Financials
423 SNPS Synopsys Inc. Information Technology
424 SYY Sysco Corp. Consumer Staples
425 TMUS T-Mobile US Communication Services
426 TROW T. Rowe Price Group Financials
427 TTWO Take-Two Interactive Communication Services
428 TPR Tapestry Inc. Consumer Discretionary
429 TGT Target Corp. Consumer Discretionary
430 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Information Technology
431 TDY Teledyne Technologies Industrials
432 TFX Teleflex Health Care
433 TER Teradyne Information Technology
434 TSLA Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary
435 TXN Texas Instruments Information Technology
436 TXT Textron Inc. Industrials
437 BK The Bank of New York Mellon Financials
438 CLX The Clorox Company Consumer Staples
439 COO The Cooper Companies Health Care
440 HSY The Hershey Company Consumer Staples
441 MOS The Mosaic Company Materials
442 TRV The Travelers Companies Financials
443 DIS The Walt Disney Company Communication Services
444 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Health Care
445 TJX TJX Companies Inc. Consumer Discretionary
446 TSCO Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary
447 TT Trane Technologies plc Industrials
448 TDG TransDigm Group Industrials
449 TRMB Trimble Inc. Information Technology
450 TFC Truist Financial Financials
451 TWTR Twitter Inc. Communication Services
452 TYL Tyler Technologies Information Technology
453 TSN Tyson Foods Consumer Staples
454 USB U.S. Bancorp Financials
455 UDR UDR Inc. Real Estate
456 ULTA Ulta Beauty Consumer Discretionary
457 UAA Under Armour (Class A) Consumer Discretionary
458 UA Under Armour (Class C) Consumer Discretionary
459 UNP Union Pacific Corp Industrials
460 UAL United Airlines Holdings Industrials
461 UPS United Parcel Service Industrials
462 URI United Rentals Inc. Industrials
463 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. Health Care
464 UHS Universal Health Services Health Care
465 UNM Unum Group Financials
466 VLO Valero Energy Energy
467 VAR Varian Medical Systems Health Care
468 VTR Ventas Inc Real Estate
469 VRSN Verisign Inc. Information Technology
470 VRSK Verisk Analytics Industrials
471 VZ Verizon Communications Communication Services
472 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Health Care
473 VFC VF Corporation Consumer Discretionary
474 VIAC ViacomCBS Communication Services
475 VTRS Viatris Health Care
476 V Visa Inc. Information Technology
477 VNT Vontier Information Technology
478 VNO Vornado Realty Trust Real Estate
479 VMC Vulcan Materials Materials
480 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Financials
481 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Consumer Staples
482 WMT Walmart Consumer Staples
483 WM Waste Management Inc. Industrials
484 WAT Waters Corporation Health Care
485 WEC WEC Energy Group Utilities
486 WFC Wells Fargo Financials
487 WELL Welltower Inc. Real Estate
488 WST West Pharmaceutical Services Health Care
489 WDC Western Digital Information Technology
490 WU Western Union Co Information Technology
491 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp Industrials
492 WRK WestRock Materials
493 WY Weyerhaeuser Real Estate
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. Consumer Discretionary
495 WMB Williams Companies Energy
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson Financials
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd Consumer Discretionary
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc Utilities
499 XRX Xerox Information Technology
500 XLNX Xilinx Information Technology
501 XYL Xylem Inc. Industrials
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies Information Technology
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet Health Care
505 ZION Zions Bancorp Financials
506 ZTS Zoetis Health Care

506
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Symbol,Name,Sector
MMM,3M Company,Industrials
AOS,A.O. Smith Corp,Industrials
ABT,Abbott Laboratories,Health Care
ABBV,AbbVie Inc.,Health Care
ABMD,Abiomed,Health Care
ACN,Accenture,Information Technology
ATVI,Activision Blizzard,Communication Services
ADBE,Adobe Inc.,Information Technology
AAP,Advance Auto Parts,Consumer Discretionary
AMD,Advanced Micro Devices,Information Technology
AES,AES Corp,Utilities
AFL,Aflac,Financials
A,Agilent Technologies,Health Care
APD,Air Products & Chemicals,Materials
AKAM,Akamai Technologies,Information Technology
ALK,Alaska Air Group,Industrials
ALB,Albemarle Corporation,Materials
ARE,Alexandria Real Estate Equities,Real Estate
ALXN,Alexion Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
ALGN,Align Technology,Health Care
ALLE,Allegion,Industrials
LNT,Alliant Energy,Utilities
ALL,Allstate Corp,Financials
GOOGL,Alphabet Inc. (Class A),Communication Services
GOOG,Alphabet Inc. (Class C),Communication Services
MO,Altria Group Inc,Consumer Staples
AMZN,Amazon.com Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
AMCR,Amcor plc,Materials
AEE,Ameren Corp,Utilities
AAL,American Airlines Group,Industrials
AEP,American Electric Power,Utilities
AXP,American Express,Financials
AIG,American International Group,Financials
AMT,American Tower Corp.,Real Estate
AWK,American Water Works,Utilities
AMP,Ameriprise Financial,Financials
ABC,AmerisourceBergen,Health Care
AME,Ametek,Industrials
AMGN,Amgen Inc.,Health Care
APH,Amphenol Corp,Information Technology
ADI,Analog Devices Inc.,Information Technology
ANSS,ANSYS Inc.,Information Technology
ANTM,Anthem,Health Care
AON,Aon plc,Financials
APA,APA Corporation,Energy
AAPL,Apple Inc.,Information Technology
AMAT,Applied Materials Inc.,Information Technology
APTV,Aptiv PLC,Consumer Discretionary
ADM,Archer-Daniels-Midland Co,Consumer Staples
ANET,Arista Networks,Information Technology
AJG,Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.,Financials
AIZ,Assurant,Financials
T,AT&T Inc.,Communication Services
ATO,Atmos Energy,Utilities
ADSK,Autodesk Inc.,Information Technology
ADP,Automatic Data Processing,Information Technology
AZO,AutoZone Inc,Consumer Discretionary
AVB,AvalonBay Communities,Real Estate
AVY,Avery Dennison Corp,Materials
BKR,Baker Hughes Co,Energy
BLL,Ball Corp,Materials
BAC,Bank of America Corp,Financials
BAX,Baxter International Inc.,Health Care
BDX,Becton Dickinson,Health Care
BRK.B,Berkshire Hathaway,Financials
BBY,Best Buy Co. Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
BIO,Bio-Rad Laboratories,Health Care
BIIB,Biogen Inc.,Health Care
BLK,BlackRock,Financials
BA,Boeing Company,Industrials
BKNG,Booking Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
BWA,BorgWarner,Consumer Discretionary
BXP,Boston Properties,Real Estate
BSX,Boston Scientific,Health Care
BMY,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Health Care
AVGO,Broadcom Inc.,Information Technology
BR,Broadridge Financial Solutions,Information Technology
BF.B,Brown-Forman Corp.,Consumer Staples
CHRW,C. H. Robinson Worldwide,Industrials
COG,Cabot Oil & Gas,Energy
CDNS,Cadence Design Systems,Information Technology
CPB,Campbell Soup,Consumer Staples
COF,Capital One Financial,Financials
CAH,Cardinal Health Inc.,Health Care
KMX,Carmax Inc,Consumer Discretionary
CCL,Carnival Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
CARR,Carrier Global,Industrials
CTLT,Catalent,Health Care
CAT,Caterpillar Inc.,Industrials
CBOE,Cboe Global Markets,Financials
CBRE,CBRE Group,Real Estate
CDW,CDW,Information Technology
CE,Celanese,Materials
CNC,Centene Corporation,Health Care
CNP,CenterPoint Energy,Utilities
CERN,Cerner,Health Care
CF,CF Industries Holdings Inc,Materials
SCHW,Charles Schwab Corporation,Financials
CHTR,Charter Communications,Communication Services
CVX,Chevron Corp.,Energy
CMG,Chipotle Mexican Grill,Consumer Discretionary
CB,Chubb Limited,Financials
CHD,Church & Dwight,Consumer Staples
CI,Cigna,Health Care
CINF,Cincinnati Financial,Financials
CTAS,Cintas Corporation,Industrials
CSCO,Cisco Systems,Information Technology
C,Citigroup Inc.,Financials
CFG,Citizens Financial Group,Financials
CTXS,Citrix Systems,Information Technology
CME,CME Group Inc.,Financials
CMS,CMS Energy,Utilities
KO,Coca-Cola Company,Consumer Staples
CTSH,Cognizant Technology Solutions,Information Technology
CL,Colgate-Palmolive,Consumer Staples
CMCSA,Comcast Corp.,Communication Services
CMA,Comerica Inc.,Financials
CAG,Conagra Brands,Consumer Staples
COP,ConocoPhillips,Energy
ED,Consolidated Edison,Utilities
STZ,Constellation Brands,Consumer Staples
CPRT,Copart Inc,Industrials
GLW,Corning Inc.,Information Technology
CTVA,Corteva,Materials
COST,Costco Wholesale Corp.,Consumer Staples
CCI,Crown Castle,Real Estate
CSX,CSX Corp.,Industrials
CMI,Cummins Inc.,Industrials
CVS,CVS Health,Health Care
DHI,D. R. Horton,Consumer Discretionary
DHR,Danaher Corp.,Health Care
DRI,Darden Restaurants,Consumer Discretionary
DVA,DaVita Inc.,Health Care
DE,Deere & Co.,Industrials
DAL,Delta Air Lines Inc.,Industrials
XRAY,Dentsply Sirona,Health Care
DVN,Devon Energy,Energy
DXCM,DexCom,Health Care
FANG,Diamondback Energy,Energy
DLR,Digital Realty Trust Inc,Real Estate
DFS,Discover Financial Services,Financials
DISCA,Discovery Inc. (Series A),Communication Services
DISCK,Discovery Inc. (Series C),Communication Services
DISH,Dish Network,Communication Services
DG,Dollar General,Consumer Discretionary
DLTR,Dollar Tree,Consumer Discretionary
D,Dominion Energy,Utilities
DPZ,Domino's Pizza,Consumer Discretionary
DOV,Dover Corporation,Industrials
DOW,Dow Inc.,Materials
DTE,DTE Energy Co.,Utilities
DUK,Duke Energy,Utilities
DRE,Duke Realty Corp,Real Estate
DD,DuPont de Nemours Inc,Materials
DXC,DXC Technology,Information Technology
EMN,Eastman Chemical,Materials
ETN,Eaton Corporation,Industrials
EBAY,eBay Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ECL,Ecolab Inc.,Materials
EIX,Edison Int'l,Utilities
EW,Edwards Lifesciences,Health Care
EA,Electronic Arts,Communication Services
EMR,Emerson Electric Company,Industrials
ENPH,Enphase Energy,Information Technology
ETR,Entergy Corp.,Utilities
EOG,EOG Resources,Energy
EFX,Equifax Inc.,Industrials
EQIX,Equinix,Real Estate
EQR,Equity Residential,Real Estate
ESS,Essex Property Trust Inc.,Real Estate
EL,Estée Lauder Companies,Consumer Staples
ETSY,Etsy,Consumer Discretionary
RE,Everest Re Group Ltd.,Financials
EVRG,Evergy,Utilities
ES,Eversource Energy,Utilities
EXC,Exelon Corp.,Utilities
EXPE,Expedia Group,Consumer Discretionary
EXPD,Expeditors,Industrials
EXR,Extra Space Storage,Real Estate
XOM,Exxon Mobil Corp.,Energy
FFIV,F5 Networks,Information Technology
FB,Facebook Inc.,Communication Services
FAST,Fastenal Co,Industrials
FRT,Federal Realty Investment Trust,Real Estate
FDX,FedEx Corporation,Industrials
FIS,Fidelity National Information Services,Information Technology
FITB,Fifth Third Bancorp,Financials
FRC,First Republic Bank,Financials
FE,FirstEnergy Corp,Utilities
FISV,Fiserv Inc,Information Technology
FLT,FleetCor Technologies Inc,Information Technology
FLIR,FLIR Systems,Information Technology
FLS,Flowserve Corporation,Industrials
FMC,FMC Corporation,Materials
F,Ford Motor Company,Consumer Discretionary
FTNT,Fortinet,Information Technology
FTV,Fortive Corp,Industrials
FBHS,Fortune Brands Home & Security,Industrials
FOXA,Fox Corporation (Class A),Communication Services
FOX,Fox Corporation (Class B),Communication Services
BEN,Franklin Resources,Financials
FCX,Freeport-McMoRan Inc.,Materials
GPS,Gap Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
GRMN,Garmin Ltd.,Consumer Discretionary
IT,Gartner Inc,Information Technology
GD,General Dynamics,Industrials
GE,General Electric,Industrials
GIS,General Mills,Consumer Staples
GM,General Motors,Consumer Discretionary
GPC,Genuine Parts,Consumer Discretionary
GILD,Gilead Sciences,Health Care
GPN,Global Payments Inc.,Information Technology
GL,Globe Life Inc.,Financials
GS,Goldman Sachs Group,Financials
GWW,Grainger (W.W.) Inc.,Industrials
HAL,Halliburton Co.,Energy
HBI,Hanesbrands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HIG,Hartford Financial Svc.Gp.,Financials
HAS,Hasbro Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
HCA,HCA Healthcare,Health Care
PEAK,Healthpeak Properties,Real Estate
HSIC,Henry Schein,Health Care
HES,Hess Corporation,Energy
HPE,Hewlett Packard Enterprise,Information Technology
HLT,Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc,Consumer Discretionary
HFC,HollyFrontier Corp,Energy
HOLX,Hologic,Health Care
HD,Home Depot,Consumer Discretionary
HON,Honeywell Int'l Inc.,Industrials
HRL,Hormel Foods Corp.,Consumer Staples
HST,Host Hotels & Resorts,Real Estate
HWM,Howmet Aerospace,Industrials
HPQ,HP Inc.,Information Technology
HUM,Humana Inc.,Health Care
HBAN,Huntington Bancshares,Financials
HII,Huntington Ingalls Industries,Industrials
IEX,IDEX Corporation,Industrials
IDXX,Idexx Laboratories,Health Care
INFO,IHS Markit,Industrials
ITW,Illinois Tool Works,Industrials
ILMN,Illumina Inc,Health Care
INCY,Incyte,Health Care
IR,Ingersoll Rand,Industrials
INTC,Intel Corp.,Information Technology
ICE,Intercontinental Exchange,Financials
IBM,International Business Machines,Information Technology
IFF,International Flavors & Fragrances,Materials
IP,International Paper,Materials
IPG,Interpublic Group,Communication Services
INTU,Intuit Inc.,Information Technology
ISRG,Intuitive Surgical Inc.,Health Care
IVZ,Invesco Ltd.,Financials
IPGP,IPG Photonics Corp.,Information Technology
IQV,IQVIA Holdings Inc.,Health Care
IRM,Iron Mountain Incorporated,Real Estate
JBHT,J. B. Hunt Transport Services,Industrials
JKHY,Jack Henry & Associates,Information Technology
J,Jacobs Engineering Group,Industrials
SJM,JM Smucker,Consumer Staples
JNJ,Johnson & Johnson,Health Care
JCI,Johnson Controls International,Industrials
JPM,JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Financials
JNPR,Juniper Networks,Information Technology
KSU,Kansas City Southern,Industrials
K,Kellogg Co.,Consumer Staples
KEY,KeyCorp,Financials
KEYS,Keysight Technologies,Information Technology
KMB,Kimberly-Clark,Consumer Staples
KIM,Kimco Realty,Real Estate
KMI,Kinder Morgan,Energy
KLAC,KLA Corporation,Information Technology
KHC,Kraft Heinz Co,Consumer Staples
KR,Kroger Co.,Consumer Staples
LB,L Brands Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
LHX,L3Harris Technologies,Industrials
LH,Laboratory Corp. of America Holding,Health Care
LRCX,Lam Research,Information Technology
LW,Lamb Weston Holdings Inc,Consumer Staples
LVS,Las Vegas Sands,Consumer Discretionary
LEG,Leggett & Platt,Consumer Discretionary
LDOS,Leidos Holdings,Information Technology
LEN,Lennar Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
LLY,Lilly (Eli) & Co.,Health Care
LNC,Lincoln National,Financials
LIN,Linde plc,Materials
LYV,Live Nation Entertainment,Communication Services
LKQ,LKQ Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
LMT,Lockheed Martin Corp.,Industrials
L,Loews Corp.,Financials
LOW,Lowe's Cos.,Consumer Discretionary
LUMN,Lumen Technologies,Communication Services
LYB,LyondellBasell,Materials
MTB,M&T Bank,Financials
MRO,Marathon Oil Corp.,Energy
MPC,Marathon Petroleum,Energy
MKTX,MarketAxess,Financials
MAR,Marriott International,Consumer Discretionary
MMC,Marsh & McLennan,Financials
MLM,Martin Marietta Materials,Materials
MAS,Masco Corp.,Industrials
MA,Mastercard Inc.,Information Technology
MXIM,Maxim Integrated Products,Information Technology
MKC,McCormick & Co.,Consumer Staples
MCD,McDonald's Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
MCK,McKesson Corp.,Health Care
MDT,Medtronic plc,Health Care
MRK,Merck & Co.,Health Care
MET,MetLife Inc.,Financials
MTD,Mettler Toledo,Health Care
MGM,MGM Resorts International,Consumer Discretionary
MCHP,Microchip Technology,Information Technology
MU,Micron Technology,Information Technology
MSFT,Microsoft Corp.,Information Technology
MAA,Mid-America Apartments,Real Estate
MHK,Mohawk Industries,Consumer Discretionary
TAP,Molson Coors Beverage Company,Consumer Staples
MDLZ,Mondelez International,Consumer Staples
MPWR,Monolithic Power Systems,Information Technology
MNST,Monster Beverage,Consumer Staples
MCO,Moody's Corp,Financials
MS,Morgan Stanley,Financials
MSI,Motorola Solutions Inc.,Information Technology
MSCI,MSCI Inc,Financials
NDAQ,Nasdaq Inc.,Financials
NTAP,NetApp,Information Technology
NFLX,Netflix Inc.,Communication Services
NWL,Newell Brands,Consumer Discretionary
NEM,Newmont Corporation,Materials
NWSA,News Corp (Class A),Communication Services
NWS,News Corp (Class B),Communication Services
NEE,NextEra Energy,Utilities
NLSN,Nielsen Holdings,Industrials
NKE,Nike Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
NI,NiSource Inc.,Utilities
NSC,Norfolk Southern Corp.,Industrials
NTRS,Northern Trust Corp.,Financials
NOC,Northrop Grumman,Industrials
NLOK,NortonLifeLock,Information Technology
NCLH,Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings,Consumer Discretionary
NOV,NOV Inc.,Energy
NRG,NRG Energy,Utilities
NUE,Nucor Corp.,Materials
NVDA,Nvidia Corporation,Information Technology
NVR,NVR Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
ORLY,O'Reilly Automotive,Consumer Discretionary
OXY,Occidental Petroleum,Energy
ODFL,Old Dominion Freight Line,Industrials
OMC,Omnicom Group,Communication Services
OKE,Oneok,Energy
ORCL,Oracle Corp.,Information Technology
OTIS,Otis Worldwide,Industrials
PCAR,Paccar,Industrials
PKG,Packaging Corporation of America,Materials
PH,Parker-Hannifin,Industrials
PAYX,Paychex Inc.,Information Technology
PAYC,Paycom,Information Technology
PYPL,PayPal,Information Technology
PNR,Pentair plc,Industrials
PBCT,People's United Financial,Financials
PEP,PepsiCo Inc.,Consumer Staples
PKI,PerkinElmer,Health Care
PRGO,Perrigo,Health Care
PFE,Pfizer Inc.,Health Care
PM,Philip Morris International,Consumer Staples
PSX,Phillips 66,Energy
PNW,Pinnacle West Capital,Utilities
PXD,Pioneer Natural Resources,Energy
PNC,PNC Financial Services,Financials
POOL,Pool Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
PPG,PPG Industries,Materials
PPL,PPL Corp.,Utilities
PFG,Principal Financial Group,Financials
PG,Procter & Gamble,Consumer Staples
PGR,Progressive Corp.,Financials
PLD,Prologis,Real Estate
PRU,Prudential Financial,Financials
PEG,Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG),Utilities
PSA,Public Storage,Real Estate
PHM,PulteGroup,Consumer Discretionary
PVH,PVH Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
QRVO,Qorvo,Information Technology
QCOM,Qualcomm,Information Technology
PWR,Quanta Services Inc.,Industrials
DGX,Quest Diagnostics,Health Care
RL,Ralph Lauren Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
RJF,Raymond James Financial,Financials
RTX,Raytheon Technologies,Industrials
O,Realty Income Corporation,Real Estate
REG,Regency Centers Corporation,Real Estate
REGN,Regeneron Pharmaceuticals,Health Care
RF,Regions Financial Corp.,Financials
RSG,Republic Services Inc,Industrials
RMD,ResMed,Health Care
RHI,Robert Half International,Industrials
ROK,Rockwell Automation Inc.,Industrials
ROL,Rollins Inc.,Industrials
ROP,Roper Technologies,Industrials
ROST,Ross Stores,Consumer Discretionary
RCL,Royal Caribbean Group,Consumer Discretionary
SPGI,S&P Global Inc.,Financials
CRM,Salesforce.com,Information Technology
SBAC,SBA Communications,Real Estate
SLB,Schlumberger Ltd.,Energy
STX,Seagate Technology,Information Technology
SEE,Sealed Air,Materials
SRE,Sempra Energy,Utilities
NOW,ServiceNow,Information Technology
SHW,Sherwin-Williams,Materials
SPG,Simon Property Group Inc,Real Estate
SWKS,Skyworks Solutions,Information Technology
SLG,SL Green Realty,Real Estate
SNA,Snap-on,Industrials
SO,Southern Company,Utilities
LUV,Southwest Airlines,Industrials
SWK,Stanley Black & Decker,Industrials
SBUX,Starbucks Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
STT,State Street Corp.,Financials
STE,Steris,Health Care
SYK,Stryker Corp.,Health Care
SIVB,SVB Financial,Financials
SYF,Synchrony Financial,Financials
SNPS,Synopsys Inc.,Information Technology
SYY,Sysco Corp.,Consumer Staples
TMUS,T-Mobile US,Communication Services
TROW,T. Rowe Price Group,Financials
TTWO,Take-Two Interactive,Communication Services
TPR,Tapestry Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TGT,Target Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
TEL,TE Connectivity Ltd.,Information Technology
TDY,Teledyne Technologies,Industrials
TFX,Teleflex,Health Care
TER,Teradyne,Information Technology
TSLA,Tesla Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TXN,Texas Instruments,Information Technology
TXT,Textron Inc.,Industrials
BK,The Bank of New York Mellon,Financials
CLX,The Clorox Company,Consumer Staples
COO,The Cooper Companies,Health Care
HSY,The Hershey Company,Consumer Staples
MOS,The Mosaic Company,Materials
TRV,The Travelers Companies,Financials
DIS,The Walt Disney Company,Communication Services
TMO,Thermo Fisher Scientific,Health Care
TJX,TJX Companies Inc.,Consumer Discretionary
TSCO,Tractor Supply Company,Consumer Discretionary
TT,Trane Technologies plc,Industrials
TDG,TransDigm Group,Industrials
TRMB,Trimble Inc.,Information Technology
TFC,Truist Financial,Financials
TWTR,Twitter Inc.,Communication Services
TYL,Tyler Technologies,Information Technology
TSN,Tyson Foods,Consumer Staples
USB,U.S. Bancorp,Financials
UDR,UDR Inc.,Real Estate
ULTA,Ulta Beauty,Consumer Discretionary
UAA,Under Armour (Class A),Consumer Discretionary
UA,Under Armour (Class C),Consumer Discretionary
UNP,Union Pacific Corp,Industrials
UAL,United Airlines Holdings,Industrials
UPS,United Parcel Service,Industrials
URI,United Rentals Inc.,Industrials
UNH,UnitedHealth Group Inc.,Health Care
UHS,Universal Health Services,Health Care
UNM,Unum Group,Financials
VLO,Valero Energy,Energy
VAR,Varian Medical Systems,Health Care
VTR,Ventas Inc,Real Estate
VRSN,Verisign Inc.,Information Technology
VRSK,Verisk Analytics,Industrials
VZ,Verizon Communications,Communication Services
VRTX,Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc,Health Care
VFC,VF Corporation,Consumer Discretionary
VIAC,ViacomCBS,Communication Services
VTRS,Viatris,Health Care
V,Visa Inc.,Information Technology
VNT,Vontier,Information Technology
VNO,Vornado Realty Trust,Real Estate
VMC,Vulcan Materials,Materials
WRB,W. R. Berkley Corporation,Financials
WBA,Walgreens Boots Alliance,Consumer Staples
WMT,Walmart,Consumer Staples
WM,Waste Management Inc.,Industrials
WAT,Waters Corporation,Health Care
WEC,WEC Energy Group,Utilities
WFC,Wells Fargo,Financials
WELL,Welltower Inc.,Real Estate
WST,West Pharmaceutical Services,Health Care
WDC,Western Digital,Information Technology
WU,Western Union Co,Information Technology
WAB,Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp,Industrials
WRK,WestRock,Materials
WY,Weyerhaeuser,Real Estate
WHR,Whirlpool Corp.,Consumer Discretionary
WMB,Williams Companies,Energy
WLTW,Willis Towers Watson,Financials
WYNN,Wynn Resorts Ltd,Consumer Discretionary
XEL,Xcel Energy Inc,Utilities
XRX,Xerox,Information Technology
XLNX,Xilinx,Information Technology
XYL,Xylem Inc.,Industrials
YUM,Yum! Brands Inc,Consumer Discretionary
ZBRA,Zebra Technologies,Information Technology
ZBH,Zimmer Biomet,Health Care
ZION,Zions Bancorp,Financials
ZTS,Zoetis,Health Care
1 Symbol Name Sector
2 MMM 3M Company Industrials
3 AOS A.O. Smith Corp Industrials
4 ABT Abbott Laboratories Health Care
5 ABBV AbbVie Inc. Health Care
6 ABMD Abiomed Health Care
7 ACN Accenture Information Technology
8 ATVI Activision Blizzard Communication Services
9 ADBE Adobe Inc. Information Technology
10 AAP Advance Auto Parts Consumer Discretionary
11 AMD Advanced Micro Devices Information Technology
12 AES AES Corp Utilities
13 AFL Aflac Financials
14 A Agilent Technologies Health Care
15 APD Air Products & Chemicals Materials
16 AKAM Akamai Technologies Information Technology
17 ALK Alaska Air Group Industrials
18 ALB Albemarle Corporation Materials
19 ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities Real Estate
20 ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals Health Care
21 ALGN Align Technology Health Care
22 ALLE Allegion Industrials
23 LNT Alliant Energy Utilities
24 ALL Allstate Corp Financials
25 GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) Communication Services
26 GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) Communication Services
27 MO Altria Group Inc Consumer Staples
28 AMZN Amazon.com Inc. Consumer Discretionary
29 AMCR Amcor plc Materials
30 AEE Ameren Corp Utilities
31 AAL American Airlines Group Industrials
32 AEP American Electric Power Utilities
33 AXP American Express Financials
34 AIG American International Group Financials
35 AMT American Tower Corp. Real Estate
36 AWK American Water Works Utilities
37 AMP Ameriprise Financial Financials
38 ABC AmerisourceBergen Health Care
39 AME Ametek Industrials
40 AMGN Amgen Inc. Health Care
41 APH Amphenol Corp Information Technology
42 ADI Analog Devices Inc. Information Technology
43 ANSS ANSYS Inc. Information Technology
44 ANTM Anthem Health Care
45 AON Aon plc Financials
46 APA APA Corporation Energy
47 AAPL Apple Inc. Information Technology
48 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. Information Technology
49 APTV Aptiv PLC Consumer Discretionary
50 ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Consumer Staples
51 ANET Arista Networks Information Technology
52 AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Financials
53 AIZ Assurant Financials
54 T AT&T Inc. Communication Services
55 ATO Atmos Energy Utilities
56 ADSK Autodesk Inc. Information Technology
57 ADP Automatic Data Processing Information Technology
58 AZO AutoZone Inc Consumer Discretionary
59 AVB AvalonBay Communities Real Estate
60 AVY Avery Dennison Corp Materials
61 BKR Baker Hughes Co Energy
62 BLL Ball Corp Materials
63 BAC Bank of America Corp Financials
64 BAX Baxter International Inc. Health Care
65 BDX Becton Dickinson Health Care
66 BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway Financials
67 BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Consumer Discretionary
68 BIO Bio-Rad Laboratories Health Care
69 BIIB Biogen Inc. Health Care
70 BLK BlackRock Financials
71 BA Boeing Company Industrials
72 BKNG Booking Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
73 BWA BorgWarner Consumer Discretionary
74 BXP Boston Properties Real Estate
75 BSX Boston Scientific Health Care
76 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Health Care
77 AVGO Broadcom Inc. Information Technology
78 BR Broadridge Financial Solutions Information Technology
79 BF.B Brown-Forman Corp. Consumer Staples
80 CHRW C. H. Robinson Worldwide Industrials
81 COG Cabot Oil & Gas Energy
82 CDNS Cadence Design Systems Information Technology
83 CPB Campbell Soup Consumer Staples
84 COF Capital One Financial Financials
85 CAH Cardinal Health Inc. Health Care
86 KMX Carmax Inc Consumer Discretionary
87 CCL Carnival Corp. Consumer Discretionary
88 CARR Carrier Global Industrials
89 CTLT Catalent Health Care
90 CAT Caterpillar Inc. Industrials
91 CBOE Cboe Global Markets Financials
92 CBRE CBRE Group Real Estate
93 CDW CDW Information Technology
94 CE Celanese Materials
95 CNC Centene Corporation Health Care
96 CNP CenterPoint Energy Utilities
97 CERN Cerner Health Care
98 CF CF Industries Holdings Inc Materials
99 SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation Financials
100 CHTR Charter Communications Communication Services
101 CVX Chevron Corp. Energy
102 CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Consumer Discretionary
103 CB Chubb Limited Financials
104 CHD Church & Dwight Consumer Staples
105 CI Cigna Health Care
106 CINF Cincinnati Financial Financials
107 CTAS Cintas Corporation Industrials
108 CSCO Cisco Systems Information Technology
109 C Citigroup Inc. Financials
110 CFG Citizens Financial Group Financials
111 CTXS Citrix Systems Information Technology
112 CME CME Group Inc. Financials
113 CMS CMS Energy Utilities
114 KO Coca-Cola Company Consumer Staples
115 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Information Technology
116 CL Colgate-Palmolive Consumer Staples
117 CMCSA Comcast Corp. Communication Services
118 CMA Comerica Inc. Financials
119 CAG Conagra Brands Consumer Staples
120 COP ConocoPhillips Energy
121 ED Consolidated Edison Utilities
122 STZ Constellation Brands Consumer Staples
123 CPRT Copart Inc Industrials
124 GLW Corning Inc. Information Technology
125 CTVA Corteva Materials
126 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. Consumer Staples
127 CCI Crown Castle Real Estate
128 CSX CSX Corp. Industrials
129 CMI Cummins Inc. Industrials
130 CVS CVS Health Health Care
131 DHI D. R. Horton Consumer Discretionary
132 DHR Danaher Corp. Health Care
133 DRI Darden Restaurants Consumer Discretionary
134 DVA DaVita Inc. Health Care
135 DE Deere & Co. Industrials
136 DAL Delta Air Lines Inc. Industrials
137 XRAY Dentsply Sirona Health Care
138 DVN Devon Energy Energy
139 DXCM DexCom Health Care
140 FANG Diamondback Energy Energy
141 DLR Digital Realty Trust Inc Real Estate
142 DFS Discover Financial Services Financials
143 DISCA Discovery Inc. (Series A) Communication Services
144 DISCK Discovery Inc. (Series C) Communication Services
145 DISH Dish Network Communication Services
146 DG Dollar General Consumer Discretionary
147 DLTR Dollar Tree Consumer Discretionary
148 D Dominion Energy Utilities
149 DPZ Domino's Pizza Consumer Discretionary
150 DOV Dover Corporation Industrials
151 DOW Dow Inc. Materials
152 DTE DTE Energy Co. Utilities
153 DUK Duke Energy Utilities
154 DRE Duke Realty Corp Real Estate
155 DD DuPont de Nemours Inc Materials
156 DXC DXC Technology Information Technology
157 EMN Eastman Chemical Materials
158 ETN Eaton Corporation Industrials
159 EBAY eBay Inc. Consumer Discretionary
160 ECL Ecolab Inc. Materials
161 EIX Edison Int'l Utilities
162 EW Edwards Lifesciences Health Care
163 EA Electronic Arts Communication Services
164 EMR Emerson Electric Company Industrials
165 ENPH Enphase Energy Information Technology
166 ETR Entergy Corp. Utilities
167 EOG EOG Resources Energy
168 EFX Equifax Inc. Industrials
169 EQIX Equinix Real Estate
170 EQR Equity Residential Real Estate
171 ESS Essex Property Trust Inc. Real Estate
172 EL Estée Lauder Companies Consumer Staples
173 ETSY Etsy Consumer Discretionary
174 RE Everest Re Group Ltd. Financials
175 EVRG Evergy Utilities
176 ES Eversource Energy Utilities
177 EXC Exelon Corp. Utilities
178 EXPE Expedia Group Consumer Discretionary
179 EXPD Expeditors Industrials
180 EXR Extra Space Storage Real Estate
181 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. Energy
182 FFIV F5 Networks Information Technology
183 FB Facebook Inc. Communication Services
184 FAST Fastenal Co Industrials
185 FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust Real Estate
186 FDX FedEx Corporation Industrials
187 FIS Fidelity National Information Services Information Technology
188 FITB Fifth Third Bancorp Financials
189 FRC First Republic Bank Financials
190 FE FirstEnergy Corp Utilities
191 FISV Fiserv Inc Information Technology
192 FLT FleetCor Technologies Inc Information Technology
193 FLIR FLIR Systems Information Technology
194 FLS Flowserve Corporation Industrials
195 FMC FMC Corporation Materials
196 F Ford Motor Company Consumer Discretionary
197 FTNT Fortinet Information Technology
198 FTV Fortive Corp Industrials
199 FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security Industrials
200 FOXA Fox Corporation (Class A) Communication Services
201 FOX Fox Corporation (Class B) Communication Services
202 BEN Franklin Resources Financials
203 FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Materials
204 GPS Gap Inc. Consumer Discretionary
205 GRMN Garmin Ltd. Consumer Discretionary
206 IT Gartner Inc Information Technology
207 GD General Dynamics Industrials
208 GE General Electric Industrials
209 GIS General Mills Consumer Staples
210 GM General Motors Consumer Discretionary
211 GPC Genuine Parts Consumer Discretionary
212 GILD Gilead Sciences Health Care
213 GPN Global Payments Inc. Information Technology
214 GL Globe Life Inc. Financials
215 GS Goldman Sachs Group Financials
216 GWW Grainger (W.W.) Inc. Industrials
217 HAL Halliburton Co. Energy
218 HBI Hanesbrands Inc Consumer Discretionary
219 HIG Hartford Financial Svc.Gp. Financials
220 HAS Hasbro Inc. Consumer Discretionary
221 HCA HCA Healthcare Health Care
222 PEAK Healthpeak Properties Real Estate
223 HSIC Henry Schein Health Care
224 HES Hess Corporation Energy
225 HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Information Technology
226 HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary
227 HFC HollyFrontier Corp Energy
228 HOLX Hologic Health Care
229 HD Home Depot Consumer Discretionary
230 HON Honeywell Int'l Inc. Industrials
231 HRL Hormel Foods Corp. Consumer Staples
232 HST Host Hotels & Resorts Real Estate
233 HWM Howmet Aerospace Industrials
234 HPQ HP Inc. Information Technology
235 HUM Humana Inc. Health Care
236 HBAN Huntington Bancshares Financials
237 HII Huntington Ingalls Industries Industrials
238 IEX IDEX Corporation Industrials
239 IDXX Idexx Laboratories Health Care
240 INFO IHS Markit Industrials
241 ITW Illinois Tool Works Industrials
242 ILMN Illumina Inc Health Care
243 INCY Incyte Health Care
244 IR Ingersoll Rand Industrials
245 INTC Intel Corp. Information Technology
246 ICE Intercontinental Exchange Financials
247 IBM International Business Machines Information Technology
248 IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Materials
249 IP International Paper Materials
250 IPG Interpublic Group Communication Services
251 INTU Intuit Inc. Information Technology
252 ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. Health Care
253 IVZ Invesco Ltd. Financials
254 IPGP IPG Photonics Corp. Information Technology
255 IQV IQVIA Holdings Inc. Health Care
256 IRM Iron Mountain Incorporated Real Estate
257 JBHT J. B. Hunt Transport Services Industrials
258 JKHY Jack Henry & Associates Information Technology
259 J Jacobs Engineering Group Industrials
260 SJM JM Smucker Consumer Staples
261 JNJ Johnson & Johnson Health Care
262 JCI Johnson Controls International Industrials
263 JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. Financials
264 JNPR Juniper Networks Information Technology
265 KSU Kansas City Southern Industrials
266 K Kellogg Co. Consumer Staples
267 KEY KeyCorp Financials
268 KEYS Keysight Technologies Information Technology
269 KMB Kimberly-Clark Consumer Staples
270 KIM Kimco Realty Real Estate
271 KMI Kinder Morgan Energy
272 KLAC KLA Corporation Information Technology
273 KHC Kraft Heinz Co Consumer Staples
274 KR Kroger Co. Consumer Staples
275 LB L Brands Inc. Consumer Discretionary
276 LHX L3Harris Technologies Industrials
277 LH Laboratory Corp. of America Holding Health Care
278 LRCX Lam Research Information Technology
279 LW Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Consumer Staples
280 LVS Las Vegas Sands Consumer Discretionary
281 LEG Leggett & Platt Consumer Discretionary
282 LDOS Leidos Holdings Information Technology
283 LEN Lennar Corp. Consumer Discretionary
284 LLY Lilly (Eli) & Co. Health Care
285 LNC Lincoln National Financials
286 LIN Linde plc Materials
287 LYV Live Nation Entertainment Communication Services
288 LKQ LKQ Corporation Consumer Discretionary
289 LMT Lockheed Martin Corp. Industrials
290 L Loews Corp. Financials
291 LOW Lowe's Cos. Consumer Discretionary
292 LUMN Lumen Technologies Communication Services
293 LYB LyondellBasell Materials
294 MTB M&T Bank Financials
295 MRO Marathon Oil Corp. Energy
296 MPC Marathon Petroleum Energy
297 MKTX MarketAxess Financials
298 MAR Marriott International Consumer Discretionary
299 MMC Marsh & McLennan Financials
300 MLM Martin Marietta Materials Materials
301 MAS Masco Corp. Industrials
302 MA Mastercard Inc. Information Technology
303 MXIM Maxim Integrated Products Information Technology
304 MKC McCormick & Co. Consumer Staples
305 MCD McDonald's Corp. Consumer Discretionary
306 MCK McKesson Corp. Health Care
307 MDT Medtronic plc Health Care
308 MRK Merck & Co. Health Care
309 MET MetLife Inc. Financials
310 MTD Mettler Toledo Health Care
311 MGM MGM Resorts International Consumer Discretionary
312 MCHP Microchip Technology Information Technology
313 MU Micron Technology Information Technology
314 MSFT Microsoft Corp. Information Technology
315 MAA Mid-America Apartments Real Estate
316 MHK Mohawk Industries Consumer Discretionary
317 TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company Consumer Staples
318 MDLZ Mondelez International Consumer Staples
319 MPWR Monolithic Power Systems Information Technology
320 MNST Monster Beverage Consumer Staples
321 MCO Moody's Corp Financials
322 MS Morgan Stanley Financials
323 MSI Motorola Solutions Inc. Information Technology
324 MSCI MSCI Inc Financials
325 NDAQ Nasdaq Inc. Financials
326 NTAP NetApp Information Technology
327 NFLX Netflix Inc. Communication Services
328 NWL Newell Brands Consumer Discretionary
329 NEM Newmont Corporation Materials
330 NWSA News Corp (Class A) Communication Services
331 NWS News Corp (Class B) Communication Services
332 NEE NextEra Energy Utilities
333 NLSN Nielsen Holdings Industrials
334 NKE Nike Inc. Consumer Discretionary
335 NI NiSource Inc. Utilities
336 NSC Norfolk Southern Corp. Industrials
337 NTRS Northern Trust Corp. Financials
338 NOC Northrop Grumman Industrials
339 NLOK NortonLifeLock Information Technology
340 NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Consumer Discretionary
341 NOV NOV Inc. Energy
342 NRG NRG Energy Utilities
343 NUE Nucor Corp. Materials
344 NVDA Nvidia Corporation Information Technology
345 NVR NVR Inc. Consumer Discretionary
346 ORLY O'Reilly Automotive Consumer Discretionary
347 OXY Occidental Petroleum Energy
348 ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line Industrials
349 OMC Omnicom Group Communication Services
350 OKE Oneok Energy
351 ORCL Oracle Corp. Information Technology
352 OTIS Otis Worldwide Industrials
353 PCAR Paccar Industrials
354 PKG Packaging Corporation of America Materials
355 PH Parker-Hannifin Industrials
356 PAYX Paychex Inc. Information Technology
357 PAYC Paycom Information Technology
358 PYPL PayPal Information Technology
359 PNR Pentair plc Industrials
360 PBCT People's United Financial Financials
361 PEP PepsiCo Inc. Consumer Staples
362 PKI PerkinElmer Health Care
363 PRGO Perrigo Health Care
364 PFE Pfizer Inc. Health Care
365 PM Philip Morris International Consumer Staples
366 PSX Phillips 66 Energy
367 PNW Pinnacle West Capital Utilities
368 PXD Pioneer Natural Resources Energy
369 PNC PNC Financial Services Financials
370 POOL Pool Corporation Consumer Discretionary
371 PPG PPG Industries Materials
372 PPL PPL Corp. Utilities
373 PFG Principal Financial Group Financials
374 PG Procter & Gamble Consumer Staples
375 PGR Progressive Corp. Financials
376 PLD Prologis Real Estate
377 PRU Prudential Financial Financials
378 PEG Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG) Utilities
379 PSA Public Storage Real Estate
380 PHM PulteGroup Consumer Discretionary
381 PVH PVH Corp. Consumer Discretionary
382 QRVO Qorvo Information Technology
383 QCOM Qualcomm Information Technology
384 PWR Quanta Services Inc. Industrials
385 DGX Quest Diagnostics Health Care
386 RL Ralph Lauren Corporation Consumer Discretionary
387 RJF Raymond James Financial Financials
388 RTX Raytheon Technologies Industrials
389 O Realty Income Corporation Real Estate
390 REG Regency Centers Corporation Real Estate
391 REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Health Care
392 RF Regions Financial Corp. Financials
393 RSG Republic Services Inc Industrials
394 RMD ResMed Health Care
395 RHI Robert Half International Industrials
396 ROK Rockwell Automation Inc. Industrials
397 ROL Rollins Inc. Industrials
398 ROP Roper Technologies Industrials
399 ROST Ross Stores Consumer Discretionary
400 RCL Royal Caribbean Group Consumer Discretionary
401 SPGI S&P Global Inc. Financials
402 CRM Salesforce.com Information Technology
403 SBAC SBA Communications Real Estate
404 SLB Schlumberger Ltd. Energy
405 STX Seagate Technology Information Technology
406 SEE Sealed Air Materials
407 SRE Sempra Energy Utilities
408 NOW ServiceNow Information Technology
409 SHW Sherwin-Williams Materials
410 SPG Simon Property Group Inc Real Estate
411 SWKS Skyworks Solutions Information Technology
412 SLG SL Green Realty Real Estate
413 SNA Snap-on Industrials
414 SO Southern Company Utilities
415 LUV Southwest Airlines Industrials
416 SWK Stanley Black & Decker Industrials
417 SBUX Starbucks Corp. Consumer Discretionary
418 STT State Street Corp. Financials
419 STE Steris Health Care
420 SYK Stryker Corp. Health Care
421 SIVB SVB Financial Financials
422 SYF Synchrony Financial Financials
423 SNPS Synopsys Inc. Information Technology
424 SYY Sysco Corp. Consumer Staples
425 TMUS T-Mobile US Communication Services
426 TROW T. Rowe Price Group Financials
427 TTWO Take-Two Interactive Communication Services
428 TPR Tapestry Inc. Consumer Discretionary
429 TGT Target Corp. Consumer Discretionary
430 TEL TE Connectivity Ltd. Information Technology
431 TDY Teledyne Technologies Industrials
432 TFX Teleflex Health Care
433 TER Teradyne Information Technology
434 TSLA Tesla Inc. Consumer Discretionary
435 TXN Texas Instruments Information Technology
436 TXT Textron Inc. Industrials
437 BK The Bank of New York Mellon Financials
438 CLX The Clorox Company Consumer Staples
439 COO The Cooper Companies Health Care
440 HSY The Hershey Company Consumer Staples
441 MOS The Mosaic Company Materials
442 TRV The Travelers Companies Financials
443 DIS The Walt Disney Company Communication Services
444 TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Health Care
445 TJX TJX Companies Inc. Consumer Discretionary
446 TSCO Tractor Supply Company Consumer Discretionary
447 TT Trane Technologies plc Industrials
448 TDG TransDigm Group Industrials
449 TRMB Trimble Inc. Information Technology
450 TFC Truist Financial Financials
451 TWTR Twitter Inc. Communication Services
452 TYL Tyler Technologies Information Technology
453 TSN Tyson Foods Consumer Staples
454 USB U.S. Bancorp Financials
455 UDR UDR Inc. Real Estate
456 ULTA Ulta Beauty Consumer Discretionary
457 UAA Under Armour (Class A) Consumer Discretionary
458 UA Under Armour (Class C) Consumer Discretionary
459 UNP Union Pacific Corp Industrials
460 UAL United Airlines Holdings Industrials
461 UPS United Parcel Service Industrials
462 URI United Rentals Inc. Industrials
463 UNH UnitedHealth Group Inc. Health Care
464 UHS Universal Health Services Health Care
465 UNM Unum Group Financials
466 VLO Valero Energy Energy
467 VAR Varian Medical Systems Health Care
468 VTR Ventas Inc Real Estate
469 VRSN Verisign Inc. Information Technology
470 VRSK Verisk Analytics Industrials
471 VZ Verizon Communications Communication Services
472 VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc Health Care
473 VFC VF Corporation Consumer Discretionary
474 VIAC ViacomCBS Communication Services
475 VTRS Viatris Health Care
476 V Visa Inc. Information Technology
477 VNT Vontier Information Technology
478 VNO Vornado Realty Trust Real Estate
479 VMC Vulcan Materials Materials
480 WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation Financials
481 WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance Consumer Staples
482 WMT Walmart Consumer Staples
483 WM Waste Management Inc. Industrials
484 WAT Waters Corporation Health Care
485 WEC WEC Energy Group Utilities
486 WFC Wells Fargo Financials
487 WELL Welltower Inc. Real Estate
488 WST West Pharmaceutical Services Health Care
489 WDC Western Digital Information Technology
490 WU Western Union Co Information Technology
491 WAB Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp Industrials
492 WRK WestRock Materials
493 WY Weyerhaeuser Real Estate
494 WHR Whirlpool Corp. Consumer Discretionary
495 WMB Williams Companies Energy
496 WLTW Willis Towers Watson Financials
497 WYNN Wynn Resorts Ltd Consumer Discretionary
498 XEL Xcel Energy Inc Utilities
499 XRX Xerox Information Technology
500 XLNX Xilinx Information Technology
501 XYL Xylem Inc. Industrials
502 YUM Yum! Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary
503 ZBRA Zebra Technologies Information Technology
504 ZBH Zimmer Biomet Health Care
505 ZION Zions Bancorp Financials
506 ZTS Zoetis Health Care

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40
data/smarkets-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
"title","url","platform","description","options","numforecasts","numforecasters","stars"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03746229444390386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009730466089325679,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025591125814926532,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.027050695728325382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10810547825240828,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.06490220881580228,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06276150627615062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.00544906101002238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.0810547825240829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05264182154325192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07482728422691447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03892186435730271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.013914566507735718,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030359054198696115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.023158509292595112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009730466089325677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2904544127663715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005626942134878643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018224573780129334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05416981607457798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.36197194927353654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.073066263542454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033593684387335176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02620307382212144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.36835474930713025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05601746871588141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002771478961955152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]",,,2
@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
"Party to get the most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4026069395997797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.5463557921791813,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.0510372682210391,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8523345209075566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10191261953872115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03234577161072567,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.013407087942996436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5392534240444007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18646495389848716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04592247784441859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06391549547936622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.034464237758481786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04475875033569063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?
@ -23,12 +23,12 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.4574565416285453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.23760292772186642,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.30494053064958826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9424575424575425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.024975024975024976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009990009990009991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.029370629370629373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009990009990009991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0009990009990009992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9327664623294444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.029068617757563774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.03292465888866917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0019774569903104606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.00009887284951552304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0009887284951552303,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6843135336138566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31568646638614345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6873425082380306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31265749176196933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5867595234099682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.2622084242322537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08390669575432119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06712535660345695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Local elections highest vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5932000683410217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.40679993165897826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar","https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader","Smarkets","Contracts to be added on request.","[{""name"":""Simon Coveney"",""probability"":0.6757322175732217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paschal Donohoe"",""probability"":0.101115760111576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen McEntee"",""probability"":0.12633658763365874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josepha Madigan"",""probability"":0.09681543468154347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Harris"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Humphreys"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eoghan Murphy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charles Flanagan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sean Kyne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Bruton"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kehoe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Heydon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe McHugh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Ring"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Creed"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colm Brophy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Irish reunification referendum before 2023","https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023","Smarkets","Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17627357659086904,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8237264234091309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -40,29 +40,29 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022","Smarkets","Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16540927951716333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8345907204828368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Fianna Fáil leader","https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin","Smarkets","Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Jim O'Callaghan"",""probability"":0.39789438502673796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael McGrath"",""probability"":0.3410762032085562,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dara Calleary"",""probability"":0.2610294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas Byrne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Niall Collins"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Lawless"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul McAuliffe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darragh O'Brien"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norma Foley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Troy"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McGuinness"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jack Chambers"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Browne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Rabbitte"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Seán Ó Fearghail"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eamon O'Cuiv"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Butler"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)","https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""For independence"",""probability"":0.5534059668058242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Against independence"",""probability"":0.4465940331941757,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6394590446959524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36054095530404756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?","https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.605265546981389,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39473445301861093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Japanese general election take place?","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.3018201575658788,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022684053246400434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.032328171692474865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06465634338494973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.029475685954903557,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.037761477859277366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.16164085846237436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.027166530834012496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.059087204563977175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08489540885628905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04686226568867156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013583265417006248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10445531105677805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8493275172664486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.016539440203562343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.004543802253725918,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.07906215921483097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05052708106143221,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8138083349337432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.017476473977338203,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.0036489341271365473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.11167658920683697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.05338966775494527,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","Contracts available on request.","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12773588375942616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3215927901416222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5506713260989516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.427658109570178,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.399822956624373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.17251893380544903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.052059925093632956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.22294007490636703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.30702247191011234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.41797752808988764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.3164641093809343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.12827573110520318,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5552601595138625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.25637114142139267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.218862167982771,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5247666905958364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0282949233166571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.12064299188058722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5360452718773067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.22783564340195195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07455097186910523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012630197654391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.028680688336520075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.10142156455233185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5505860836312245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.2309418904314573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07556737883448332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012802394213982875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -72,9 +72,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share","Smarkets","What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.32353451266042316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45.0–49.9%"",""probability"":0.4250780437044745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50% or over"",""probability"":0.2513874436351023,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?","https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july","Smarkets","Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.724179585262734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27582041473726593,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London elections: In-person voting","https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting","Smarkets","Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?","[{""name"":""In-person and postal voting"",""probability"":0.947219512195122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Postal voting only"",""probability"":0.05278048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9556486987035774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04435130129642265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9114912606917069,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08850873930829305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days","https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days","Smarkets","Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03920031360250882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9607996863974911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5402559680493783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17454842516111463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08250884995915403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04129980938549514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10801488608514115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.053372061359716796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate","https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021","Smarkets","Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.5417533701257577,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.17397991495521578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.08224011580566362,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.041165294490183656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.10766307789740343,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.05319822672577581,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Trump to create new political party","https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party","Smarkets","Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11602004826434008,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8839799517356599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4299680766161213,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5700319233838786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.3380956856847448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.6619043143152552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -105,17 +105,17 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Galloway and West Dumfries","https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Glasgow Kelvin","https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7601773113804958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07535733671069297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Green"",""probability"":0.16446535190881129,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"North East Fife","https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife","Smarkets","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.32412084246640616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.6758791575335938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8743213352101347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.12567866478986528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)","https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour","Smarkets","Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Senedd election: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority","Smarkets","Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32688113413304254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6731188658669575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.17962075432381747,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8203792456761826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Nicola Sturgeon exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.25555450505814503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.744445494941855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeen South and North Kincardine","https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberdeenshire East","https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.7619047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.23809523809523808,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.668265240247164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33173475975283595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Angus North and Mearns","https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns","Smarkets","Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.683055775839281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.316944224160719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Banffshire and Buchan Coast","https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast","Smarkets","Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Edinburgh Pentlands","https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands","Smarkets","Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Moray","https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray","Smarkets","Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6165456089048204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3834543910951797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire North","https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6760837347165617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.3239162652834383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Perthshire South and Kinross-shire","https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire","Smarkets","Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6635258645057949,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.33647413549420524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Referendum on monarchy by 2024","https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024","Smarkets","Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1803263907672888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8196736092327112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Aberconwy","https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy","Smarkets","Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Blaenau Gwent","https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent","Smarkets","Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
@ -137,4 +137,6 @@ Other candidates available on request.","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probabil
"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4359478731251537,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.4820916318334563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.08196049504139005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Hartlepool by-election","https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election","Smarkets","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.4244963451595649,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.46915671242645746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Reform UK"",""probability"":0.01274737029773578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.004457122481725797,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Northern Independence Party"",""probability"":0.08914244963451595,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"Joe Biden exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date","Smarkets","When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
"2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats","Smarkets","How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","[{""name"":""60 or fewer"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""61–64"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–68"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69–72"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or more"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2
1 title url platform description options numforecasts numforecasters stars
2 Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request [{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03712990645192401,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009644131545954288,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025364065965859772,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.026810685697752915,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10714630147555212,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.0643263574115151,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06220464847140515,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05217475166361269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.005400713665734401,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.08033561577779921,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05217475166361269,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07416337158838847,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03857652618381715,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.01379110811071463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030089690423377377,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.022953033079371202,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009644131545954287,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2967499276690134,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Sajid Javid","probability":0.03746229444390386,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rory Stewart","probability":0.0009730466089325679,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jacob Rees-Mogg","probability":0.025591125814926532,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Penny Mordaunt","probability":0.027050695728325382,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jeremy Hunt","probability":0.10810547825240828,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"James Cleverly","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dominic Raab","probability":0.06490220881580228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Tugendhat","probability":0.06276150627615062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Priti Patel","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amber Rudd","probability":0.00544906101002238,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Johnny Mercer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Gove","probability":0.0810547825240829,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Matthew Hancock","probability":0.05264182154325192,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liz Truss","probability":0.07482728422691447,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Williamson","probability":0.03892186435730271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Leadsom","probability":0.013914566507735718,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Geoffrey Cox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tobias Ellwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Steve Baker","probability":0.030359054198696115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.023158509292595112,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Esther McVey","probability":0.009730466089325677,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Philip Hammond","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rishi Sunak","probability":0.2904544127663715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
3 Gender of next Conservative leader https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader Smarkets What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson? [{"name":"Male","probability":0.7736942156241513,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Female","probability":0.22630578437584864,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
4 Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019 Smarkets [{"name":"Friedrich Merz","probability":0.005626942134878643,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer","probability":0.018224573780129334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jens Spahn","probability":0.05416981607457798,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Armin Laschet","probability":0.36197194927353654,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Robert Habeck","probability":0.073066263542454,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alice Weidel","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrea Nahles","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Daniel Gunther","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralph Brinkhaus","probability":0.033593684387335176,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wolfgang Schäuble","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Julia Klockner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heiko Maas","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Malu Dreyer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Peter Altmaier","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ralf Stegner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ursula Von der Leyen","probability":0.02620307382212144,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sahra Wagenknecht","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Sonneborn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Markus Söder","probability":0.36835474930713025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olaf Scholz","probability":0.05601746871588141,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Norbert Röttgen","probability":0.002771478961955152,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Annalena Baerbock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
5 Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader Smarkets [{"name":"Derek Mackay","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":null},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":null},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alex Salmond","probability":null},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tommy Sheppard","probability":null},{"name":"Angela Constance","probability":null},{"name":"Roseanna Cunningham","probability":null}] 2
13 Party to get the most seats https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4026069395997797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.5463557921791813,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.0510372682210391,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
14 USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.2934948492941626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.7065051507058375,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
15 Year of next General Election in Hungary https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election Smarkets The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it? [{"name":"2022 or earlier","probability":0.3964413291096583,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.2011862236301139,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
16 Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021 Smarkets [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.8477819657871846,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.10505460519957474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03334299797042621,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.01382043104281434,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.8523345209075566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservatives","probability":0.10191261953872115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.03234577161072567,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.013407087942996436,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
17 Winner of the 2022 French presidential election https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Emmanuel Macron","probability":0.5392534240444007,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marine Le Pen","probability":0.18646495389848716,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Luc Mélenchon","probability":0.04592247784441859,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"François Baroin","probability":0.06391549547936622,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Xavier Bertrand","probability":0.034464237758481786,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yannick Jadot","probability":0.04475875033569063,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Olivier Faure","probability":0.04261033031957748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean-Marie Bigard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jean Lassalle","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joachim Son-Forget","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anne Hidalgo","probability":0.04261033031957748,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernard Cazeneuve","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nicolas Dupont-Aignan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Arnaud Montebourg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ségolène Royal","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Florian Philippot","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Edouard Philippe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
18 Macron first round vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022 Smarkets What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election? [{"name":"Under 25%","probability":0.5155602574274882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25% or over","probability":0.48443974257251166,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
19 Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer Smarkets Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? Other candidates available on request. [{"name":"Angela Rayner","probability":0.241490404818602,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Lisa Nandy","probability":0.10379604986692814,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.10771816781061774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rebecca Long-Bailey","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Anneliese Dodds","probability":0.07185880375402717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rosena Allin-Khan","probability":0.07003782042302843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andy Burnham","probability":0.14595881776159125,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Yvette Cooper","probability":0.06093290376803474,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Clive Lewis","probability":0.07367978708502591,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John McDonnell","probability":0.038941028155203804,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ian Lavery","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Jarvis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Emily Thornberry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nick Thomas-Symonds","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sam Tarry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Louise Haigh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Burgon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dawn Butler","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Carden","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jess Phillips","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Lammy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jon Trickett","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Barry Gardiner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Seema Malhotra","probability":0.04664518840173694,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jonathan Ashworth","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ed Miliband","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Hilary Benn","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stella Creasy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rachel Reeves","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laura Pidcock","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charlotte Nichols","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kate Osborne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Margaret Greenwood","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Zarah Sultana","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Wes Streeting","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jim McMahon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alison McGovern","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bridget Phillipson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
23 Keir Starmer exit date https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date Smarkets When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party? [{"name":"2023 or earlier","probability":0.4574565416285453,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":0.23760292772186642,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":0.30494053064958826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
24 2021 London mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9424575424575425,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.024975024975024976,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.0009990009990009992,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009990009990009991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.029370629370629373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00009990009990009991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.0009990009990009992,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0009990009990009992,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.9327664623294444,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.029068617757563774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.0009887284951552303,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"probability":0.00009887284951552304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.03292465888866917,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.00009887284951552304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0.0009887284951552303,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0.0019774569903104606,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"David Kurten","probability":0.00009887284951552304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Piers Corbyn","probability":0.0009887284951552303,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
25 Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences Smarkets Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3167398244213887,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6832601755786113,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
26 2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.6843135336138566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.31568646638614345,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andy Street","probability":0.6873425082380306,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liam Byrne","probability":0.31265749176196933,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Beverley Nielsen","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Downs","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
27 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Ben Houchen","probability":0.7560150032019028,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jessie Joe Jacobs","probability":0.24398499679809715,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
28 Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021 Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.915064401717379,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.01437371663244353,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.01866716445771887,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.05189471719245845,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
29 Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP) https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp Smarkets Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5910243407707911,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.26411426639621366,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08451656524678837,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06034482758620689,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5867595234099682,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.2622084242322537,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.08390669575432119,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Green","probability":0.06712535660345695,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
30 Local elections highest vote share https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share Smarkets Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.5932000683410217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.40679993165897826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
31 Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader Smarkets Contracts to be added on request. [{"name":"Simon Coveney","probability":0.6757322175732217,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paschal Donohoe","probability":0.101115760111576,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Helen McEntee","probability":0.12633658763365874,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josepha Madigan","probability":0.09681543468154347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Simon Harris","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Heather Humphreys","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eoghan Murphy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Charles Flanagan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sean Kyne","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Bruton","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Paul Kehoe","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Martin Heydon","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joe McHugh","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Ring","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Creed","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Colm Brophy","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
32 Irish reunification referendum before 2023 https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023 Smarkets Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.17627357659086904,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8237264234091309,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
33 Next Scottish First Minister https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister Smarkets Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request. [{"name":"Kate Forbes","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Angus Robertson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"John Swinney","probability":0.4077608142493639,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Keith Brown","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Humza Yousaf","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shirley-Anne Somerville","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Russell","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ruth Davidson","probability":0.18447837150127228,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shona Robison","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Richard Leonard","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mhairi Black","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Matheson","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Joanna Cherry","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Jackson Carlaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Stewart Hosie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
34 French Presidential election to happen before 2022 https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1252665739452944,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8747334260547056,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
40 Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022) https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref Smarkets [{"name":"For independence","probability":0.5534059668058242,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Against independence","probability":0.4465940331941757,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
41 Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election? https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.6394590446959524,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.36054095530404756,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.605265546981389,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.39473445301861093,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
42 Next general election overall majority https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority Smarkets Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"No overall majority","probability":0.42750430951924917,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative majority","probability":0.32570388814403367,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour majority","probability":0.24248228308753111,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat majority","probability":0.0043095192491859795,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
43 Date of next Japanese general election https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election Smarkets When will the next Japanese general election take place? [{"name":"Before 22 October 2021","probability":0.5904173106646059,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"22 October 2021 or later","probability":0.4095826893353941,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
44 Belarus to have a General Election in 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.4664641271325076,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5335358728674924,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
45 Joe Biden to serve full term https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term Smarkets Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details. [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.5384764489242101,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.46152355107578985,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
46 2024 Democratic presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.3583343785275304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.3743885613947071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0.05230151762197416,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.08365734353442869,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0.04640662235043271,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.06271165182490906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0.020945691709519626,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Amy Klobuchar","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Garcetti","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Cory Booker","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gretchen Whitmer","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0.0012542330364981814,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
47 2024 Republican presidential nominee https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee Smarkets Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request. [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.29622716971070523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.022263698173576853,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.031729102786295156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06345820557259031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.028929476069857348,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.055592587654979334,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.1586455139314758,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.026663111585121982,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.05799226769764031,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.0833222237035062,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04599386748433542,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013331555792560991,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.10251966404479403,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.3018201575658788,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.022684053246400434,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.032328171692474865,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.06465634338494973,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.029475685954903557,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.037761477859277366,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.16164085846237436,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0.027166530834012496,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0.059087204563977175,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.08489540885628905,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.04686226568867156,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Trump","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Larry Hogan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rick Scott","probability":0.013583265417006248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tim Scott","probability":0.013583265417006248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0.10445531105677805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
48 2024 US presidential winner https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner Smarkets Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Joe Biden","probability":0.15712956501511977,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kamala Harris","probability":0.2194696441032798,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump","probability":0.15305885089555707,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tucker Carlson","probability":0.026401488718306578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Tom Cotton","probability":0.011630611770179109,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pence","probability":0.04477785531518957,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Donald Trump Jr.","probability":0.06838799720865316,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ted Cruz","probability":0.021167713421725978,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez","probability":0.07757618050709465,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michelle Obama","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nikki Haley","probability":0.07501744591765526,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Elizabeth Warren","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Gavin Newsom","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Andrew Cuomo","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Marco Rubio","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Nina Turner","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Pete Buttigieg","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Bernie Sanders","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Rashida Tlaib","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Josh Hawley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mike Pompeo","probability":0.02907652942544777,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dan Crenshaw","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ayanna Pressley","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Chris Christie","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ivanka Trump","probability":0.05815305885089554,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Candace Owens","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Michael Bloomberg","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ron DeSantis","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
49 2021 London mayoral election second place https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place Smarkets Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.8493275172664486,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.016539440203562343,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.004543802253725918,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.07906215921483097,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.05052708106143221,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Shaun Bailey","probability":0.8138083349337432,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Sadiq Khan","probability":0.017476473977338203,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Siân Berry","probability":0.0036489341271365473,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Luisa Porritt","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Brian Rose","probability":0.11167658920683697,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Mandu Reid","probability":0.05338966775494527,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Laurence Fox","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
50 Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat Smarkets Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.13378808549340612,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.866211914506594,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
51 Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election Smarkets Contracts available on request. [{"name":"Republican","probability":0.4087618689480116,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Democrat","probability":0.5912381310519883,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
52 London Assembly: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority Smarkets Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.41771041084962107,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5822895891503789,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
53 How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021? https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021 Smarkets How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon? [{"name":"Fewer than 3","probability":0.12773588375942616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 3","probability":0.3215927901416222,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Exactly 4","probability":0.5506713260989516,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
54 2021 Norwegian election: Most votes https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets) [{"name":"Conservative (Høyre)","probability":0.46105867870332373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)","probability":0.31087402544111614,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.1368075502667214,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.04562987279441936,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
55 2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party Smarkets Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request. [{"name":"Centre (Senterpartiet)","probability":0.7432820245238717,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)","probability":0.17392816766675365,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)","probability":0.08278980780937473,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
56 2021 Dutch election: PVV seats https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats Smarkets How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election? [{"name":"Fewer than 20","probability":0.37488097505237095,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20–24","probability":0.38706912968958296,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25 or more","probability":0.2380498952580461,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Fewer than 20","probability":0.427658109570178,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"20–24","probability":0.399822956624373,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"25 or more","probability":0.17251893380544903,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
57 2021 Dutch election: Government seats https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats Smarkets How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election? [{"name":"Fewer than 65","probability":0.052059925093632956,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–69","probability":0.22294007490636703,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"70–74","probability":0.30702247191011234,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"75 or more","probability":0.41797752808988764,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
58 2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party Smarkets Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party? [{"name":"GroenLinks","probability":0.3164641093809343,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)","probability":0.12827573110520318,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)","probability":0.5552601595138625,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"GroenLinks","probability":0.25637114142139267,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)","probability":0.218862167982771,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)","probability":0.5247666905958364,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
59 Brexit Party to control any council https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.050332192470304,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.949667807529696,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
60 Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat Smarkets Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.09087437953417335,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9091256204658267,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
61 London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats Smarkets How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election? [{"name":"0–2","probability":0.7598774124078522,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"3 or more","probability":0.24012258759214777,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
62 Joe Biden's first international visit https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit Smarkets Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States? [{"name":"United Kingdom","probability":0.730138390568939,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republic of Ireland","probability":0.12207415000854263,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"France","probability":0.0341705108491372,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Germany","probability":0.10422005808986845,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"China","probability":0.00085426277122843,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Ukraine","probability":0.0085426277122843,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
63 Biden approval on day 100 https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100 Smarkets What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency? [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.0282949233166571,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.12064299188058722,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5360452718773067,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.22783564340195195,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.07455097186910523,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012630197654391865,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Under 45%","probability":0.028680688336520075,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"45–49.9%","probability":0.10142156455233185,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"50–54.9%","probability":0.5505860836312245,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"55–59.9%","probability":0.2309418904314573,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"60–64.9%","probability":0.07556737883448332,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65% or over","probability":0.012802394213982875,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
64 Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post Smarkets Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.7920825016633399,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.20791749833666,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
65 Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary Smarkets Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.3994252873563218,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6005747126436781,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
66 Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election Smarkets [{"name":"Labor","probability":0.8232995177116248,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Coalition","probability":0.010394146016963247,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Any other party","probability":0.08315316813570597,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
67 2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election Smarkets Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Tracy Brabin","probability":0.8051441932969603,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative Party candidate","probability":0.19485580670303976,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
68 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.8055977823482071,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.19440221765179289,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
72 London elections: In-person voting https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting Smarkets Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only? [{"name":"In-person and postal voting","probability":0.947219512195122,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Postal voting only","probability":0.05278048780487805,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
73 London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9556486987035774,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.04435130129642265,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.9114912606917069,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.08850873930829305,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
74 $2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days Smarkets Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.03920031360250882,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.9607996863974911,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
75 New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021 Smarkets Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request. [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5402559680493783,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.17454842516111463,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.08250884995915403,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.04129980938549514,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.10801488608514115,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.053372061359716796,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Andrew Yang","probability":0.5417533701257577,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Eric Adams","probability":0.17397991495521578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Scott Stringer","probability":0.08224011580566362,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Raymond McGuire","probability":0.041165294490183656,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Maya Wiley","probability":0.10766307789740343,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Shaun Donovan","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Dianne Morales","probability":0.05319822672577581,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Kathryn Garcia","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
76 Trump to create new political party https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party Smarkets Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11602004826434008,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8839799517356599,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
77 Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021 https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election Smarkets [{"name":"CDU + CSU","probability":0.8866338069005509,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"SPD","probability":0.053735382236397025,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Greens","probability":0.04204117135401566,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"AfD","probability":0.01758963950903644,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
78 Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
79 2022 House of Representatives control https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control Smarkets Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections? [{"name":"Democratic","probability":0.3759190298863745,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Republican","probability":0.6240809701136256,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
80 President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq Smarkets [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.43832661101210013,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.5616733889878999,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
92 Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament Smarkets Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.11546469808820746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8845353019117925,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
93 Brian Rose vote share https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share Smarkets What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election? [{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.4299680766161213,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.5700319233838786,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Less than 2.0%","probability":0.3380956856847448,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2.0% or more","probability":0.6619043143152552,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
94 Aberdeenshire West https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5665742024965326,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.43342579750346744,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
95 Ayr https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6379892345588906,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.36201076544110933,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
96 Dumbarton https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6490849447513812,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.35091505524861877,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
97 Dumfriesshire https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.5926263916773133,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.40737360832268665,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
98 East Lothian https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6236568930977964,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0.3034966308504826,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.072846476051721,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
105 North East Fife https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife Smarkets Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.32412084246640616,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0.6758791575335938,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
106 2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour) https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour Smarkets Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request. [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8743213352101347,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.12567866478986528,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.8,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0.2,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
107 2021 Senedd election: Labour majority https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/scotland/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority Smarkets Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.32688113413304254,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.6731188658669575,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
108 Nicola Sturgeon exit date https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date Smarkets When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland? [{"name":"2021","probability":0.17962075432381747,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.8203792456761826,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"2021","probability":0.25555450505814503,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022 or later","probability":0.744445494941855,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
109 Aberdeen South and North Kincardine https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
110 Aberdeenshire East https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east Smarkets Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.7619047619047619,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.23809523809523808,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
111 Angus North and Mearns https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns Smarkets Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.668265240247164,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33173475975283595,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.683055775839281,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.316944224160719,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
112 Banffshire and Buchan Coast https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast Smarkets Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
113 Edinburgh Pentlands https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands Smarkets Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
114 Moray https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray Smarkets Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6165456089048204,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3834543910951797,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
115 Perthshire North https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6760837347165617,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.3239162652834383,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
116 Perthshire South and Kinross-shire https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire Smarkets Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"SNP","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"SNP","probability":0.6635258645057949,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.33647413549420524,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
117 Referendum on monarchy by 2024 https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024 Smarkets Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024? [{"name":"Yes","probability":0.1803263907672888,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"No","probability":0.8196736092327112,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
118 Aberconwy https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy Smarkets Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Conservative","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
119 Blaenau Gwent https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent Smarkets Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
120 Brecon and Radnorshire https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire Smarkets Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Liberal Democrat","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
121 Caerphilly https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly Smarkets Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Labour","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
137 Ynys Môn https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon Smarkets Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election? [{"name":"Plaid Cymru","probability":1,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Labour","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
138 Hartlepool by-election https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election Smarkets Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request. [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4359478731251537,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.4820916318334563,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Reform UK","probability":0.08196049504139005,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] [{"name":"Labour","probability":0.4244963451595649,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Conservative","probability":0.46915671242645746,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Reform UK","probability":0.01274737029773578,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Liberal Democrats","probability":0.004457122481725797,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"Northern Independence Party","probability":0.08914244963451595,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
139 Joe Biden exit date https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date Smarkets When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States? [{"name":"2021","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2022","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2023","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2024","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"2025 or later","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
140 2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats Smarkets How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? [{"name":"60 or fewer","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"61–64","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"65–68","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"69–72","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"},{"name":"73 or more","probability":null,"type":"PROBABILITY"}] 2
141
142

267
data/smarkets-questions.json
View File

@ -6,27 +6,27 @@
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@ -36,22 +36,22 @@
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@ -61,27 +61,27 @@
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@ -116,7 +116,7 @@
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"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
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{
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{
"name": "2023",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/scotland/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "60 or fewer",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61–64",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65–68",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69–72",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or more",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
}
]

858
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@ -0,0 +1,858 @@
[
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.17,
"actualEstimate": "~17% (~1 in 6)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Ord writes: \"Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.\"\n\nThis estimate already incorporates Ord's expectation that people will start taking these risks more seriously in future. For his \"business as usual\" estimate, see the conditional estimates sheet."
},
{
"title": "Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.19,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk in the 21st century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/will-macaskill-paralysis-and-hinge-of-history/#transcript",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "Will MacAskill",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/articles/extinction-risk/",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 3%",
"platform": "Ben Todd or 80,000 Hours",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "At or above 30%",
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "≤50% (\"no better than fifty-fifty\")",
"platform": "Martin Rees",
"date_approx": 2003,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "There be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"probability": 0.08,
"actualEstimate": "Median: 1%. Mean: 7%.",
"platform": "Metaculus responders",
"date_approx": "2021",
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "While the general feeling of most people, especially now that the cold war is (mostly) over, is that the risk of human extinction is extremely small, experts have assigned a significantly higher probability to the event.\n\nIn 2008 an informal poll at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference at the University of Oxford yielded a median probability of human extinction by 2100 of 19%. Yet, one might want to be cautious when using this result as a good estimate of the true probability of human extinction, as there may be a powerful selection effect at play. Only those who assign a high probability to human extinction are likely to attend the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in the first place, meaning that the survey was effectively sampling opinions from one extreme tail of the opinion distribution on the subject. Indeed, the conference report itself stated that the findings should be taken 'with a grain of salt'..\n\nTherefore, it is asked: will there be zero living humans on planet earth on January 1, 2100?.\n\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.).\n\nN.B. Even though it is obviously the case that if human extinction occurs Metaculus points won't be very valuable anymore and that it will be practically impossible to check for true human extinction (zero humans left), I would like to ask people not to let this fact influence their prediction and to predict in good faith."
},
{
"title": "Existential disaster will do us in",
"url": "https://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "Probably at or above 25%",
"platform": "Nick Bostrom",
"date_approx": 2002,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Gott III",
"date_approx": 1993,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Annual probability as of 2009 of extinction",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0035,
"actualEstimate": "0.3-0.4%",
"platform": "Wells",
"date_approx": 2009,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Global catastrophic risk per year.",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.03072",
"probability": 0.002,
"actualEstimate": "0.2%",
"platform": "Simpson",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "Beard et al. seem to imply this is about extinction, but the quote suggests it's about \"global catastrophic risk\"."
},
{
"title": "Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "50% (~1 in 2)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MSYhEatxkEfg46j3D/the-case-of-the-missing-cause-prioritisation-research?commentId=iWkoScDxocaAJE4Jg",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": ">20%",
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of superintelligent AI",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Global Catastrophic Risk Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Extremely bad (e.g. extinction) long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence",
"url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "Survey of AI experts",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "AI",
"description": "The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/"
},
{
"title": "A state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to AI",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "0-10%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "AI causing an existential catastrophe in the next century",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7gxtXrMeqw78ZZeY9/ama-or-discuss-my-80k-podcast-episode-ben-garfinkel-fhi?commentId=uxiKooRc6d7JpjMSg",
"probability": 0.055,
"actualEstimate": "~0.1-1%",
"platform": "Ben Garfinkel",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied \"I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range."
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through adversarial optimization against humans only, will cause existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views\": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF He might have updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "AI-induced existential catastrophe",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates."
},
{
"title": "Existential risk from AI",
"url": "https://youtu.be/WLXuZtWoRcE?t=1229",
"probability": 0.175,
"actualEstimate": "5-30%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "I put the probability that [AI/AGI] is an existential risk roughly in the 30% to 5% range, depending on how the problem is phrased.\" He probably means the probability of existential catastrophe from AI/AGI, not the probability that AI/AGI poses an existential risk."
},
{
"title": "Chance of humanity not surviving AI",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4LjoJGpqIY& (from 39:40)",
"probability": 0.4,
"actualEstimate": "50, 40, or 33%",
"platform": "Stuart Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2014,
"category": "AI",
"description": "Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimated (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). He noted \"This number fluctuates a lot\". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an \"actually superintelligent\" AI, whereas for \"AI in general\" it'd be 60%. This is notably higher than his 2020 estimate, implying either that he updated towards somewhat more \"optimism\" between 2014 and 2020, or that one or both of these estimates don't reflect stable beliefs."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe happening this century (maybe just from AI?)",
"url": "https://youtu.be/aFAI8itZCGk?t=854",
"probability": 0.415,
"actualEstimate": "33-50%",
"platform": "Jaan Tallinn",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI",
"description": "This comes from a verbal interview (from the 14:14 mark). The interview was focused on AI, and this estimate may have been as well. Tallinn said he's not very confident, but is fairly confident his estimate would be in double-digits, and then said \"two obvious Schelling points\" are 33% or 50%, so he'd guess somewhere in between those. Other comments during the interview seem to imply Tallinn is either just talking about extinction risk or thinks existential risk happens to be dominated by extinction risk."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from engineered pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.03,
"actualEstimate": "~3% (~1 in 30)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.0005,
"actualEstimate": "0.05%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from naturally arising pandemics by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "~0.01% (~1 in 10,000)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of single biggest engineered pandemic",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.02,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.00004,
"actualEstimate": "0.008% to 0.0000016% (between 8 x 10-5 and 1.6 x 10-8)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for biowarfare and bioterrorism suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only. But I'm not sure. This might also include \"accidental\" release of a bioengineered pathogen."
},
{
"title": "Annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism",
"url": "https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/10.1089/hs.2017.0028",
"probability": 0.0000019,
"actualEstimate": "0.00019% (0.0000019)",
"platform": "Millet & Snyder-Beattie",
"date_approx": 2017,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to a global pandemic",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for \"synthetic biology\" suggests to me that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends, due to synthetic biology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.000001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0001%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks",
"probability": 0.000002,
"actualEstimate": "0.0002%",
"platform": "James Fodor",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Biorisk",
"description": "This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. \"These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate.\" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of molecular nanotech weapons",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Human extinction by 2100 as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "This is the median. Beard et al.'s appendix says \"Note that for these predictions no time frame was given.\" Based on phrasings in the original source, that is most likely (but not certainly) incorrect."
},
{
"title": "Civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends due to nanotechnology",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.0001,
"actualEstimate": "0.0100%",
"platform": "Pamlin & Armstrong",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe from other anthropogenic risks (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=0",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2% (~1 in 50)",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nanotechnology",
"description": "See this post for some commentary: [Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s existential risk estimates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/my-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#_Unforeseen__and__other__anthropogenic_risks__Surprisingly_risky_)"
},
{
"title": "Total existential risk by 2120 if we just carry on as we are, with business as usual (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#estimates-for-specific-x-risks-000810",
"probability": 0.33,
"actualEstimate": "~33% (\"about one in three\")",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk/conditional",
"description": "Ord: \"one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen?\n\nMy best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. So you could think of my overall estimate as being something like Russian roulette, but my initial business as usual estimate being there’s something like two bullets in the chamber of the gun, but then we’ll probably remove one and that if we really got our act together, we could basically remove both of them. And so, in some sense, maybe the headline figure should be one in three being the difference between the business as usual risk and how much of that we could eliminate if we really got our act together.\"\"\n\nArden Koehler replies \"\"Okay. So business as usual means doing what we are approximately doing now extrapolated into the future but we don’t put much more effort into it as opposed to doing nothing at all?\"\"\n\nOrd replies: \"\"That’s right, and it turns out to be quite hard to define business as usual. That’s the reason why, for my key estimate, that I make it… In some sense, it’s difficult to define estimates where they take into account whether or not people follow the advice that you’re giving; that introduces its own challenges. But at least that’s just what a probability normally means. It means that your best guess of the chance something happens, whereas a best guess that something happens conditional upon certain trends either staying at the same level or continuing on the same trajectory or something is just quite a bit more unclear as to what you’re even talking about.\"\""
},
{
"title": "The probability that the long-run overall impact on humanity of human level machine intelligence will be Extremely bad (existential catastrophe), assuming Human Level Machine Intelligence will at some point exist.",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.18,
"platform": "Survey of experts in the AI field",
"date_approx": 2016,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is the mean. According to Beard et al., the question was \"4. Assume for the purpose of this question that such Human Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) will at some point exist. How positive or negative would be overall impact on humanity, in the long run?"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on there not being “additional intervention by longtermists” (or perhaps “no intervention from longtermists”)",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This is my interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken very literally. He updated this in 2020 to ~15%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/"
},
{
"title": "Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe, conditional on “discontinuous takeoff”",
"url": "https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism",
"probability": 0.7,
"actualEstimate": "~70% (but with “way more uncertainty” than his other estimates)",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Chance that we don't manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future.",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.2,
"actualEstimate": "~20%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/conditional",
"description": "This may have been specifically if the transition happens in the net 100 years; it's possible Ord would estimate we'd have a different chance if this transition happened at a later time.\n\"Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\n[For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that."
},
{
"title": "Chance that a full-scale nuclear war in the next century would be the end of human potential",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.02,
"actualEstimate": "~2%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Global human population of zero resulting from the 150 Tg of black carbon scenario in our 2007 paper",
"url": "http://www.overcomingbias.com/2012/11/nuclear-winter-and-human-extinction-qa-with-luke-oman.html",
"probability": 0.000055,
"actualEstimate": "0.001-0.01% (“in the range of 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000”)",
"platform": "Luke Oman",
"date_approx": 2012,
"category": "Nuclear/Conditional",
"description": "I think that this is Oman’s estimate of the chance that extinction would occur if that black carbon scenario occurred, rather than an estimate that also takes into account the low probability that that black carbon scenario occurs. I.e., I think that this estimate was conditional on a particular type of nuclear war occurring. But I’m not sure about that, and the full context doesn’t make it much clearer."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 2 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 3 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.35,
"actualEstimate": "30-40%",
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 4 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 5 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.9,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "Full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine, if there's 6 degrees of warming",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/mark-lynas-climate-change-nuclear-energy/",
"probability": 0.97,
"platform": "Mark Lynas",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Climate change/conditional",
"description": "Arden Koehler: \"...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening?\nMark Lynas: \"Oh, I think… You want to put me on the spot. I would say it has a 30 to 40% chance of happening at three degrees, and a 60% chance of happening at four degrees, and 90% at five degrees, and 97% at six degrees. [...] Maybe 10% at two degrees."
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918904",
"probability": 0.03,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate and extensive government regulation",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918905",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918906",
"probability": 0.001,
"actualEstimate": "0.1%",
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Reduced from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "A world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years",
"url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W10B6NJjicD8O0STPiT3tNV3oFnT8YsfjmtYR8RO_RI/edit#gid=511918907",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "Bryan Caplan",
"date_approx": 2006,
"category": "Misc/conditional",
"description": "Increased from his 5% unconditional probability"
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of superintelligent AI before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A. Interestingly, this is the same as the estimate from this source of the chance of human as a result of superintelligent AI by 2100."
},
{
"title": "AI safety is as hard as a (caricature of) MIRI suggests",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.1,
"actualEstimate": "~10%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "So, decent chance– I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do."
},
{
"title": "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless",
"url": "https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-adam-gleave/",
"probability": 0.25,
"actualEstimate": "~20-30%",
"platform": "Adam Gleave",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "The first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Rohin Shah",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something."
},
{
"title": "We have good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important",
"url": "https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",
"probability": 0.3,
"actualEstimate": "~30%",
"platform": "Buck Schlegris",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay."
},
{
"title": "We create something that’s more intelligent than humanity in the next 100 years",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.5,
"actualEstimate": "~50%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": "Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way.\n\nToby Ord: With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person."
},
{
"title": "Soft AGI takeoff",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.67,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.62,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.52,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.005,
"actualEstimate": "0.5%",
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "AI/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest engineered pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.6,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest natural pandemic before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Biorisk/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.25,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of molecular nanotech weapons before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.05,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of the single biggest nanotech accident before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.01,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nanotechnology/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all nuclear wars before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all acts of nuclear terrorism before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "This is the median. The report about these estimates also plots the results for each question “with individual response distributions visible” in Appendix A."
},
{
"title": "chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century",
"url": "https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/toby-ord-the-precipice-existential-risk-future-humanity/#transcript",
"probability": 0.05,
"actualEstimate": "~5%",
"platform": "Toby Ord",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "I give existential risk over the next century from nuclear war at about one in a thousand. I initially thought it would be higher than that. That’s actually something that while researching the book, thought was a lower risk than I had initially thought. And how I’d break it down is to something like a 5% chance of a full-scale nuclear war in the next century and a 2% chance that that would be the end of human potential.\" Ord discusses his reasoning more both in that interview and in The Precipice."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.011,
"actualEstimate": "1.10%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Per year chance of nuclear war between the US and Russia",
"url": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PAYa6on5gJKwAywrF/how-likely-is-a-nuclear-exchange-between-the-us-and-russia-1",
"probability": 0.0038,
"actualEstimate": "0.38%",
"platform": "Aggregation by Luisa Rodriguez",
"date_approx": 2019,
"category": "Nuclear/non-existential",
"description": "In this post, I get a rough sense of how probable a nuclear war might be by looking at historical evidence, the views of experts, and predictions made by forecasters. I find that, if we aggregate those perspectives, there’s about a 1.1% chance of nuclear war each year, and that the chances of a nuclear war between the US and Russia, in particular, are around 0.38% per year.\" This is not presented as Luisa's own credence; this may not be the number she herself would give. Readers may also be interested in the estimates implied by each of the perspectives Luisa aggregates."
},
{
"title": "Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Climate change/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 million dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.98,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "At least 1 billion dead as a result of all wars (including civil wars) before 2100",
"url": "https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf",
"probability": 0.3,
"platform": "GCR Conference",
"date_approx": 2008,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.72,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.7,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "https://reducing-suffering.org/summary-beliefs-values-big-questions/",
"probability": 0.5,
"platform": "Brian Tomasik",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
},
{
"title": "Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",
"url": "http://www.stafforini.com/blog/what_i_believe/",
"probability": 0.1,
"platform": "Pablo Stafforini",
"date_approx": 2015,
"category": "Miscellaneous/non-existential",
"description": ""
}
]

4
data/xrisk-questions-raw.json
View File

@ -45,7 +45,7 @@
"platform": "John Leslie",
"date_approx": 1996,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent”"
"description": "The probability of the human race avoiding extinction for the next five centuries is encouragingly high, perhaps as high as 70 percent"
},
{
"title": "Our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",
@ -124,7 +124,7 @@
"platform": "Ozzie Gooen",
"date_approx": 2020,
"category": "Total risk",
"description": "I think it's fairly likely(>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
"description": "I think it's fairly likely (>20%) that sentient life will survive for at least billions of years; and that there may be a fair amount of lock-in, so changing the trajectory of things could be great."
},
{
"title": "Existential catastrophe by 2120 as a result of unaligned AI",

29
src/estimize-fetch.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
import fs from "fs"
export function estimize(){
let data = fs.readFileSync('/home/nuno/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-current/data/s-and-p-500-companies/companies.csv', 'utf8')
let splitData = data.split("\n")
let results = []
for(let datum of splitData){
if(datum!=""){
//console.log(datum)
let datumSplit = datum.split(",")
let companyStickerSymbol=datumSplit[0]
let companyName=datumSplit[1]
let standardObj = ({
"title": `Estimates for ${companyName} (${companyStickerSymbol})`,
"url": `https://www.estimize.com/${companyStickerSymbol.toLowerCase()}`,
"platform": "Estimize",
"description": `A link to Estimize's forecasts for *${companyName}* (sticker symbol ${companyStickerSymbol}). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free`,
"options": [],
"stars": 2//calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
})
results.push(standardObj)
}
}
console.log(results)
let string = JSON.stringify(results, null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync('./data/estimize-questions.json', string);
}
//estimize()

57
src/index.js
View File

@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import readline from "readline"
import {csetforetell} from "./csetforetell-fetch.js"
import {elicit} from "./elicit-fetch.js"
import {estimize} from "./estimize-fetch.js"
import {foretold} from "./foretold-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgment} from "./goodjudgment-fetch.js"
import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
@ -22,7 +23,7 @@ let opts = {}
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
// let sets = ["template", "elicit", "foretold", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "omen", "hypermind", "smarkets", "williamhill", "ladbrokes", "xrisk"]
let sets = ["csetforetell", "elicit", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "ladbrokes", "metaculus", "polymarket", "predictit", "omen", "smarkets", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
let sets = ["csetforetell", "elicit", "estimize", "foretold", "givewellopenphil", "goodjudgment","goodjudmentopen", "hypermind", "ladbrokes", "metaculus", "polymarket", "predictit", "omen", "smarkets", "williamhill", "xrisk"]
let suffix = "-questions"
let locationData = "./data/"
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
@ -79,42 +80,45 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
elicit()
break;
case 3:
foretold()
estimize()
break;
case 4:
goodjudgment()
foretold()
break;
case 5:
goodjudgmentopen()
goodjudgment()
break;
case 6:
hypermind()
goodjudgmentopen()
break;
case 7:
ladbrokes()
hypermind()
break;
case 8:
metaculus()
ladbrokes()
break;
case 9:
omen()
metaculus()
break;
case 10:
polymarket()
omen()
break;
case 11:
predictit()
polymarket()
break;
case 12:
smarkets()
predictit()
break;
case 13:
williamhill()
smarkets()
break;
case 14:
coverttocsvandmerge()
williamhill()
break;
case 15:
coverttocsvandmerge()
break;
case 16:
await csetforetell()
await elicit()
//await foretold()
@ -139,19 +143,20 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
[1]: Download predictions from csetforetell
[2]: Download predictions from elicit
[3]: Download predictions from foretold
[4]: Download predictions from goodjudgment
[5]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
[6]: Download predictions from hypermind
[7]: Download predictions from ladbrokes
[8]: Download predictions from metaculus
[9]: Download predictions from omen
[10]: Download predictions from polymarket
[11]: Download predictions from predictit
[12]: Download predictions from smarkets
[13]: Download predictions from William Hill
[14]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps)
[15]: All of the above
[3]: Download predictions from estimize
[4]: Download predictions from foretold
[5]: Download predictions from goodjudgment
[6]: Download predictions from goodjudgmentopen
[7]: Download predictions from hypermind
[8]: Download predictions from ladbrokes
[9]: Download predictions from metaculus
[10]: Download predictions from omen
[11]: Download predictions from polymarket
[12]: Download predictions from predictit
[13]: Download predictions from smarkets
[14]: Download predictions from William Hill
[15]: Merge jsons them into one big json (requires previous steps)
[16]: All of the above
Choose one option, wisely: #`
whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)